CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-10-05 01:55 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.29587%+194%20.3%escalable$22,533
Ted Cruz140-159$0.10525%+134%3.9%moderado$15
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.14525%+73%3.1%moderado$3,165
Ted Cruz160-179$0.10017%+68%1.9%moderado$15
Donald Trump140-159$0.12017%+44%1.5%moderado$4,844
Donald Trump200+$0.24534%+40%3.2%escalable$1,678
Ted Cruz120-139$0.22030%+34%2.4%escalable$298
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.51063%+24%6.2%escalable$90
The White House180-199$0.13517%+22%0.9%moderado$177
Donald Trump200+$0.10011%+13%0.4%moderado$11,339
Volodymyr Zelenskyy120-139$0.12814%+12%0.4%moderado$478
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.69073%+6%3.5%escalable$1,153
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 24.75x48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 141 · proyeccion 1177.2 ± 160.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.29587%+194%20.3%escalable$22,533
lleva 0 · proyeccion 324.4 ± 89.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0026%+3680%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,588
380-399$0.0027%+3316%1.7%cautela (no operable)$8,527
340-359$0.0079%+1121%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,918
360-379$0.0068%+1105%1.8%cautela (no operable)$2,491
320-339$0.0099%+834%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,033
300-319$0.0149%+526%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,367
280-299$0.0218%+283%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,713
260-279$0.0537%+39%0.6%cautela (no operable)$1,220
80-99$0.0030%+16%0.0%cautela (no operable)$6,730
lleva 80 · proyeccion 259.2 ± 66.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0035%+1819%1.1%cautela (no operable)$16,324
360-379$0.0023%+1432%0.7%cautela (no operable)$30,860
320-339$0.0047%+1427%1.6%cautela (no operable)$15,666
120-139$0.0022%+1110%0.4%cautela (no operable)$37,717
380-399$0.0022%+1093%0.4%cautela (no operable)$28,506
300-319$0.0109%+800%2.0%cautela (no operable)$27,585
140-159$0.0063%+377%0.6%cautela (no operable)$33,015
280-299$0.02511%+340%2.1%cautela (no operable)$22,102
400-419$0.0031%+218%0.2%cautela (no operable)$22,143
260-279$0.07012%+70%1.3%cautela (no operable)$16,979
160-179$0.0375%+29%0.3%cautela (no operable)$22,562
lleva 0 · proyeccion 97.3 ± 49.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00211%+7196%2.7%cautela (no operable)$1,677
165-189$0.0026%+3586%1.4%cautela (no operable)$4,923
115-139$0.01317%+1244%3.9%cautela (no operable)$427
90-114$0.05020%+300%4.0%cautela (no operable)$650
<40$0.05510%+75%1.1%cautela (no operable)$5,755
lleva 191 · proyeccion 248.0 ± 37.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.0026%+4186%1.6%cautela (no operable)$181,544
300-319$0.0046%+1157%1.3%cautela (no operable)$59,921
280-299$0.01812%+560%2.5%cautela (no operable)$68,343
200-219$0.05913%+112%1.8%cautela (no operable)$107,039
260-279$0.09918%+82%2.2%cautela (no operable)$92,785
lleva 53 · proyeccion 73.5 ± 22.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.0023%+2069%0.8%cautela (no operable)$67,831
90-114$0.02220%+807%4.7%cautela (no operable)$74,936
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 11.91x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 192.4 ± 47.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00511%+1924%2.7%cautela (no operable)$23
160-179$0.03815%+289%2.9%cautela (no operable)$19
60-79$0.0031%+157%0.1%cautela (no operable)$36
120-139$0.0367%+93%0.9%cautela (no operable)$10
80-99$0.0112%+47%0.1%cautela (no operable)$23
100-119$0.0264%+45%0.3%cautela (no operable)$20
180-199$0.13517%+22%0.9%moderado$177
lleva 80 · proyeccion 197.1 ± 37.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0021%+618%0.3%cautela (no operable)$231
180-199$0.08221%+152%3.4%cautela (no operable)$1,398
80-99$0.0020%+83%0.0%cautela (no operable)$265
lleva 244 · proyeccion 277.4 ± 19.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 13.65x37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 179.4 ± 49.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0051%+156%0.2%cautela (no operable)$96
200+$0.24534%+40%3.2%escalable$1,678
80-99$0.0253%+26%0.2%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 80 · proyeccion 174.7 ± 36.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.01610%+534%2.2%cautela (no operable)$1,436
100-119$0.0094%+390%0.9%cautela (no operable)$1,262
140-159$0.12017%+44%1.5%moderado$4,844
80-99$0.0101%+42%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,315
lleva 139 · proyeccion 173.3 ± 21.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0035%+2009%1.3%cautela (no operable)$8,173
200+$0.10011%+13%0.4%moderado$11,339
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.7x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 141.0 ± 30.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.10525%+134%3.9%moderado$15
160-179$0.10017%+68%1.9%moderado$15
lleva 34 · proyeccion 118.6 ± 23.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.22030%+34%2.4%escalable$298
140-159$0.14015%+5%0.2%moderado$27
lleva 86 · proyeccion 109.9 ± 12.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.05520%+259%3.8%cautela (no operable)$604
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.6x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 106.6 ± 26.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.06521%+220%3.8%cautela (no operable)$86
140-159$0.0388%+119%1.2%cautela (no operable)$60
lleva 33 · proyeccion 96.2 ± 20.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0053%+505%0.7%cautela (no operable)$354
120-139$0.03211%+245%2.0%cautela (no operable)$333
60-79$0.09017%+89%2.2%cautela (no operable)$1,119
lleva 86 · proyeccion 107.1 ± 11.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.14525%+73%3.1%moderado$3,165
120-139$0.12814%+12%0.4%moderado$478
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 45.1 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0049%+1896%2.1%cautela (no operable)$97
40-59$0.05561%+1005%14.6%cautela (no operable)$88
lleva 11 · proyeccion 35.7 ± 8.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.06032%+421%6.8%cautela (no operable)$518
lleva 26 · proyeccion 32.8 ± 4.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0%Sobre-dispersion: 4.35x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.9 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.07514%+93%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5
20-39$0.51063%+24%6.2%escalable$90
lleva 10 · proyeccion 26.6 ± 8.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0166%+305%1.2%cautela (no operable)$40
20-39$0.69073%+6%3.5%escalable$1,153
lleva 20 · proyeccion 24.9 ± 4.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 16.44x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 10.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.01212%+874%2.6%cautela (no operable)$76
20-24$0.0097%+629%1.4%cautela (no operable)$10
10-14$0.02617%+527%3.6%cautela (no operable)$48
5-9$0.04919%+289%3.7%cautela (no operable)$33
30-34$0.0051%+92%0.1%cautela (no operable)$49
25-29$0.0163%+84%0.3%cautela (no operable)$43
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.7 ± 7.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.00415%+4047%3.5%cautela (no operable)$355
15-19$0.0056%+1124%1.4%cautela (no operable)$327
5-9$0.02523%+805%5.3%cautela (no operable)$373
20-24$0.0092%+82%0.2%cautela (no operable)$511
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.1 ± 4.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.00518%+3261%4.5%cautela (no operable)$968
10-14$0.0022%+985%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,243