CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-12 18:39 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.10241%+300%8.5%moderado$425
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.22557%+152%11.1%escalable$968
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.12529%+130%4.7%moderado$1,100
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.25057%+127%10.6%escalable$2,173
The White House180-199$0.15533%+112%5.2%moderado$8,230
Ted Cruz120-139$0.18535%+91%5.2%moderado$2,149
Donald Trump120-139$0.12824%+88%3.2%moderado$2,860
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.11018%+63%2.0%moderado$6,528
Donald Trump200+$0.17528%+61%3.2%moderado$575
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.28038%+36%3.5%escalable$5,036
Donald Trump120-139$0.14519%+34%1.4%moderado$879
Elon Musk200-219$0.13217%+32%1.2%moderado$93,104
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 277 · proyeccion 1042.4 ± 140.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.04562%+1278%15.1%cautela (no operable)$5,141
960-999$0.01910%+427%2.1%cautela (no operable)$8,278
920-959$0.0349%+156%1.4%cautela (no operable)$3,598
lleva 0 · proyeccion 357.7 ± 95.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0027%+4692%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,994
500+$0.0027%+4523%1.7%cautela (no operable)$17,054
420-439$0.0026%+4090%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,673
360-379$0.0048%+2258%2.0%cautela (no operable)$2,640
380-399$0.0048%+2149%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,210
340-359$0.0068%+1175%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,532
320-339$0.0078%+1038%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,359
300-319$0.0127%+511%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,727
280-299$0.0236%+181%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,817
lleva 39 · proyeccion 270.4 ± 77.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0036%+1937%1.5%cautela (no operable)$11,805
360-379$0.0035%+1713%1.1%cautela (no operable)$15,320
320-339$0.0048%+1612%1.8%cautela (no operable)$11,234
380-399$0.0023%+1472%0.7%cautela (no operable)$19,607
300-319$0.0139%+599%2.0%cautela (no operable)$19,795
280-299$0.02510%+309%1.9%cautela (no operable)$17,642
260-279$0.04810%+115%1.4%cautela (no operable)$9,864
100-119$0.0061%+82%0.1%cautela (no operable)$42,094
240-259$0.08510%+17%0.4%cautela (no operable)$6,513
120-139$0.0182%+12%0.1%cautela (no operable)$25,734
lleva 0 · proyeccion 121.3 ± 55.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00211%+7134%2.7%cautela (no operable)$4,876
140-164$0.00315%+6010%3.8%cautela (no operable)$9,728
115-139$0.00718%+2253%4.3%cautela (no operable)$5,047
90-114$0.04617%+264%3.2%cautela (no operable)$13,387
lleva 125 · proyeccion 205.0 ± 45.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0036%+2473%1.6%cautela (no operable)$103,970
240-259$0.00411%+2313%2.6%cautela (no operable)$129,563
120-139$0.0044%+891%1.0%cautela (no operable)$227,407
220-239$0.03015%+404%3.1%cautela (no operable)$87,549
200-219$0.13217%+32%1.2%moderado$93,104
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.53x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 190.7 ± 46.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0054%+601%0.8%cautela (no operable)$154
120-139$0.0217%+248%1.3%cautela (no operable)$154
80-99$0.0052%+210%0.3%cautela (no operable)$254
160-179$0.05515%+178%2.6%cautela (no operable)$266
140-159$0.06012%+92%1.5%cautela (no operable)$132
60-79$0.0051%+14%0.0%cautela (no operable)$290
lleva 52 · proyeccion 166.5 ± 36.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00619%+2898%4.7%cautela (no operable)$2,324
160-179$0.03322%+565%4.7%cautela (no operable)$2,123
lleva 149 · proyeccion 194.6 ± 22.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0025%+3548%1.3%cautela (no operable)$2,800
180-199$0.15533%+112%5.2%moderado$8,230
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 170.7 ± 49.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0021%+462%0.2%cautela (no operable)$449
60-79$0.0062%+216%0.3%cautela (no operable)$100
80-99$0.0204%+113%0.6%cautela (no operable)$232
200+$0.17528%+61%3.2%moderado$575
lleva 24 · proyeccion 135.9 ± 40.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0055%+932%1.2%cautela (no operable)$758
40-59$0.0042%+484%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,443
80-99$0.02510%+309%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,439
100-119$0.07916%+101%2.2%cautela (no operable)$1,324
120-139$0.14519%+34%1.4%moderado$879
lleva 118 · proyeccion 149.6 ± 21.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.12824%+88%3.2%moderado$2,860
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 146.3 ± 28.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 41 · proyeccion 130.4 ± 22.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0031%+238%0.2%cautela (no operable)$793
80-99$0.0507%+42%0.6%cautela (no operable)$269
120-139$0.30035%+16%1.7%escalable$89
lleva 109 · proyeccion 143.2 ± 13.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0174%+151%0.6%cautela (no operable)$907
120-139$0.18535%+91%5.2%moderado$2,149
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 104.1 ± 17.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.01817%+821%3.9%cautela (no operable)$244
140-159$0.0052%+358%0.5%cautela (no operable)$274
100-119$0.10241%+300%8.5%moderado$425
lleva 15 · proyeccion 78.6 ± 14.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0517%+29%0.4%cautela (no operable)$160
lleva 47 · proyeccion 69.9 ± 8.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.10513%+21%0.6%moderado$1,514
60-79$0.67077%+14%7.2%escalable$1,915
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.1 ± 12.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.07524%+215%4.3%cautela (no operable)$1,845
80-99$0.0051%+84%0.1%cautela (no operable)$702
40-59$0.47058%+24%5.3%escalable$2,145
lleva 4 · proyeccion 36.8 ± 9.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.28038%+36%3.5%escalable$5,036
lleva 23 · proyeccion 34.2 ± 5.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.11018%+63%2.0%moderado$6,528
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.8 ± 12.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01121%+1844%5.1%cautela (no operable)$256
20-39$0.22557%+152%11.1%escalable$968
60-79$0.0051%+78%0.1%cautela (no operable)$215
lleva 4 · proyeccion 22.3 ± 10.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.25057%+127%10.6%escalable$2,173
lleva 4 · proyeccion 11.8 ± 6.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01112%+988%2.8%cautela (no operable)$1,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.9 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.05015%+195%2.5%cautela (no operable)$40
20-24$0.05310%+85%1.2%cautela (no operable)$30
10-14$0.13518%+30%1.2%moderado$211
25-29$0.0525%+5%0.1%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 9.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0055%+946%1.2%cautela (no operable)$278
10-14$0.02918%+543%4.0%cautela (no operable)$316
15-19$0.02411%+384%2.3%cautela (no operable)$269
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.7 ± 5.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03813%+232%2.3%cautela (no operable)$601
5-9$0.12529%+130%4.7%moderado$1,100
15-19$0.0173%+59%0.3%cautela (no operable)$408