Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.155 55% +257% 11.8% moderado $49 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,108 The White House 200+ $0.215 51% +136% 9.3% escalable $18 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.120 26% +120% 4.1% moderado $179 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.195 39% +102% 6.2% moderado $1,883 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.175 35% +100% 5.3% moderado $312 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.115 22% +87% 2.8% moderado $464 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.210 38% +82% 5.5% escalable $1,664 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.340 58% +72% 9.2% escalable $4,248 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.135 23% +68% 2.7% moderado $9,400 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.155 24% +58% 2.6% moderado $1,196 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.115 18% +56% 1.8% moderado $526
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,818 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2488.0 ± 252.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,108
lleva 0 · proyeccion 383.5 ± 99.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 8% +5076% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $128 500+ $0.003 12% +4737% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $5,423 420-439 $0.002 7% +4711% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $128 440-459 $0.002 6% +4194% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $128 460-479 $0.002 6% +3581% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $240 380-399 $0.003 8% +3108% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $443 480-499 $0.002 5% +2929% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $248 360-379 $0.004 8% +2173% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $353 340-359 $0.011 8% +622% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $312 320-339 $0.013 7% +413% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $254 300-319 $0.022 6% +171% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $303 280-299 $0.025 5% +110% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $271
lleva 29 · proyeccion 263.7 ± 77.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 3% +1748% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $10,303 360-379 $0.003 4% +1526% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $14,439 400-419 $0.002 2% +1079% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $13,157 340-359 $0.005 6% +1016% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $15,595 320-339 $0.009 7% +744% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $9,744 420-439 $0.002 1% +604% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $12,115 300-319 $0.013 9% +590% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $9,772 280-299 $0.024 10% +313% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,360 60-79 $0.002 0% +203% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $45,552 260-279 $0.038 10% +166% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $6,169 240-259 $0.065 10% +55% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $4,422 80-99 $0.006 1% +28% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $29,912
lleva 86 · proyeccion 194.9 ± 52.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 2% +1302% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $169,381 280-299 $0.004 3% +583% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $34,267 260-279 $0.009 6% +559% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $33,387 240-259 $0.015 9% +471% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $29,429 220-239 $0.029 12% +326% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $33,589 300-319 $0.004 1% +319% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $34,666 320-339 $0.003 1% +142% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $31,245 100-119 $0.018 4% +123% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $101,192 200-219 $0.075 14% +93% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $30,773 340-359 $0.002 0% +45% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $30,135
lleva 809 · proyeccion 897.1 ± 47.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 960-999 $0.009 8% +776% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $32,868 920-959 $0.038 22% +489% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $28,339 1000+ $0.009 2% +63% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $24,930 800-839 $0.058 9% +62% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $83,077 880-919 $0.285 33% +14% 1.4% escalable $25,162
lleva 0 · proyeccion 71.9 ± 42.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 4% +1309% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $6,089 115-139 $0.011 10% +796% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $27,551 165-189 $0.002 1% +731% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $6,570 90-114 $0.033 18% +447% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $11,628 65-89 $0.135 23% +68% 2.7% moderado $9,400
lleva 53 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 4.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 65-89 $0.005 1% +163% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $128,093
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,894 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9% Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x 27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 200.2 ± 45.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.215 51% +136% 9.3% escalable $18 140-159 $0.060 9% +57% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $12 120-139 $0.034 5% +55% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $8
lleva 30 · proyeccion 159.4 ± 36.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 9% +2793% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $141 120-139 $0.026 16% +499% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $239 80-99 $0.011 4% +228% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $120 140-159 $0.072 21% +188% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $254 60-79 $0.005 1% +103% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $176
lleva 108 · proyeccion 160.3 ± 23.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 15% +2811% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,956 100-119 $0.002 3% +2221% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $649 140-159 $0.082 30% +268% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $3,217
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,650 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 207.2 ± 55.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 2% +178% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $147 60-79 $0.005 1% +22% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $161 180-199 $0.120 14% +14% 0.5% moderado $395
lleva 35 · proyeccion 159.8 ± 42.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 14% +2523% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $393 100-119 $0.005 9% +1608% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $290 80-99 $0.006 5% +723% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $181 140-159 $0.025 18% +616% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $372 60-79 $0.003 2% +600% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $193 160-179 $0.115 18% +56% 1.8% moderado $526 40-59 $0.005 1% +31% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $660
lleva 150 · proyeccion 212.8 ± 30.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.002 10% +4754% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $2,309 140-159 $0.003 3% +967% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,640 180-199 $0.065 19% +199% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $3,271
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,962 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6% Sobre-dispersion: 7.14x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 158.5 ± 33.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.060 11% +86% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $24
lleva 16 · proyeccion 117.7 ± 26.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 17% +3335% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $178 100-119 $0.026 28% +966% 6.4% cautela (no operable) $130 60-79 $0.025 6% +147% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $115 120-139 $0.120 26% +120% 4.1% moderado $179
lleva 118 · proyeccion 159.1 ± 17.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.210 38% +82% 5.5% escalable $1,664 120-139 $0.075 12% +55% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $808
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,953 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 118.7 ± 29.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.205 25% +24% 1.5% escalable $65 120-139 $0.220 25% +13% 0.9% escalable $0
lleva 12 · proyeccion 87.2 ± 23.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.046 10% +110% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $192 100-119 $0.115 22% +87% 2.8% moderado $464 20-39 $0.011 2% +65% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $140 60-79 $0.215 25% +18% 1.2% escalable $956
lleva 95 · proyeccion 128.9 ± 15.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.006 3% +361% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $662 100-119 $0.155 24% +58% 2.6% moderado $1,196
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 898 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.3% Sobre-dispersion: 2.82x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 31% +5478% 7.6% cautela (no operable) $43 40-59 $0.155 55% +257% 11.8% moderado $49 80-99 $0.005 2% +245% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $43
lleva 3 · proyeccion 36.0 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.175 35% +100% 5.3% moderado $312
lleva 23 · proyeccion 37.8 ± 6.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.195 39% +102% 6.2% moderado $1,883
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 518 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.6 ± 12.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 1% +72% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $60 40-59 $0.195 23% +17% 1.0% moderado $60
lleva 10 · proyeccion 30.0 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.555 68% +22% 6.9% escalable $87 <20 $0.130 15% +14% 0.5% moderado $149
lleva 30 · proyeccion 38.1 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.340 58% +72% 9.2% escalable $4,248
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.0 ± 10.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.040 9% +122% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.033 18% +439% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $287 20-24 $0.006 3% +415% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $251 15-19 $0.019 9% +354% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $225 5-9 $0.065 24% +267% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $657
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2.1 ± 5.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.040 25% +518% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $808 10-14 $0.025 7% +167% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $971 15-19 $0.005 1% +33% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $663
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).