Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.165 77% +365% 18.0% moderado $3,561 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.115 35% +205% 6.7% moderado $2,143 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.155 40% +161% 7.4% moderado $12 Donald Trump 200+ $0.215 49% +127% 8.7% escalable $953 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.215 48% +121% 8.3% escalable $777 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.150 26% +72% 3.2% moderado $2,228 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.330 56% +70% 8.7% escalable $22 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.130 22% +69% 2.6% moderado $318 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.325 46% +42% 5.0% escalable $3,073 Elon Musk 220-239 $0.115 15% +32% 1.1% moderado $56,382 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.145 19% +30% 1.3% moderado $815 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.359 47% +30% 4.2% escalable $1,515
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,204 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 189 · proyeccion 1111.7 ± 153.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.165 77% +365% 18.0% moderado $3,561
lleva 0 · proyeccion 385.7 ± 99.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 13% +8287% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $12,032 420-439 $0.002 7% +4754% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $3,949 440-459 $0.003 7% +2512% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $9,524 360-379 $0.005 8% +1340% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $482 400-419 $0.006 8% +1099% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,529 340-359 $0.009 8% +690% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $563 320-339 $0.013 7% +447% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,046 380-399 $0.017 8% +386% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $255 300-319 $0.013 6% +360% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $451 280-299 $0.030 5% +68% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $3,026
lleva 37 · proyeccion 269.8 ± 77.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.002 4% +2895% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $27,247 340-359 $0.003 6% +2326% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $28,764 380-399 $0.002 3% +1976% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $33,459 320-339 $0.004 8% +1601% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $24,748 300-319 $0.009 9% +852% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $17,173 80-99 $0.002 1% +355% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $44,777 280-299 $0.022 10% +344% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $15,699 100-119 $0.003 1% +302% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $50,961 260-279 $0.052 10% +96% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $9,193 120-139 $0.015 2% +37% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $28,296
lleva 0 · proyeccion 148.1 ± 61.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.004 16% +4491% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $552 240+ $0.002 7% +4475% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $177 165-189 $0.004 14% +4025% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $567 190-214 $0.005 11% +2105% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $99 215-239 $0.005 7% +1330% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $96 115-139 $0.015 15% +880% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $50 90-114 $0.065 12% +88% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $40
lleva 121 · proyeccion 227.2 ± 52.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 4% +2121% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $71,846 120-139 $0.002 3% +1686% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $118,033 320-339 $0.002 2% +1413% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $54,616 280-299 $0.006 8% +1056% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $56,033 260-279 $0.015 11% +609% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $65,566 240-259 $0.050 14% +178% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $59,020 140-159 $0.036 5% +41% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $86,309 220-239 $0.115 15% +32% 1.1% moderado $56,382
lleva 5 · proyeccion 73.0 ± 41.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 4% +2655% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $9,833 115-139 $0.007 10% +1393% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $16,424 90-114 $0.036 19% +411% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $17,141 65-89 $0.205 23% +14% 0.9% escalable $11,106
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,337 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 190.0 ± 47.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.015 8% +385% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $70 100-119 $0.011 4% +288% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $60 80-99 $0.005 2% +237% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $97 140-159 $0.038 12% +207% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $216 60-79 $0.005 1% +29% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $117 160-179 $0.125 15% +22% 0.8% moderado $176
lleva 32 · proyeccion 153.7 ± 38.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 17% +4757% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $361 100-119 $0.004 11% +2967% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $426 140-159 $0.019 21% +955% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $581 160-179 $0.170 19% +12% 0.6% moderado $678
lleva 117 · proyeccion 163.1 ± 23.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 13% +2696% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $1,627 140-159 $0.012 28% +2250% 6.8% cautela (no operable) $3,896
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,061 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.9 ± 53.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.215 49% +127% 8.7% escalable $953 180-199 $0.115 15% +27% 0.9% moderado $278 160-179 $0.115 13% +12% 0.4% moderado $305
lleva 25 · proyeccion 142.8 ± 41.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.009 8% +838% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $588 60-79 $0.005 4% +714% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $461 40-59 $0.003 2% +523% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $463 100-119 $0.080 14% +75% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,060 20-39 $0.004 0% +35% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $3,163 140-159 $0.145 19% +30% 1.3% moderado $815 120-139 $0.160 18% +14% 0.7% moderado $1,043
lleva 119 · proyeccion 178.0 ± 29.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.016 7% +345% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,950 140-159 $0.075 17% +126% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $2,572 160-179 $0.150 26% +72% 3.2% moderado $2,228
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,481 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 149.4 ± 28.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.055 22% +291% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.090 27% +202% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $0 180-199 $0.045 11% +138% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $0 200+ $0.025 4% +61% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $40 120-139 $0.185 22% +17% 0.9% moderado $0
lleva 31 · proyeccion 125.2 ± 22.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.045 11% +137% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $376 100-119 $0.210 27% +29% 1.9% escalable $215 60-79 $0.018 2% +15% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $97 120-139 $0.305 33% +9% 1.0% escalable $288
lleva 125 · proyeccion 163.1 ± 14.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 5% +363% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $841 140-159 $0.115 35% +205% 6.7% moderado $2,143 160-179 $0.359 47% +30% 4.2% escalable $1,515
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,650 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.6 ± 18.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.155 40% +161% 7.4% moderado $12 140-159 $0.035 7% +96% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $12 120-139 $0.250 28% +12% 1.0% escalable $20
lleva 18 · proyeccion 89.1 ± 14.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.130 22% +69% 2.6% moderado $318
lleva 48 · proyeccion 78.5 ± 9.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.365 44% +22% 3.1% escalable $1,960
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 802 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.6 ± 12.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.065 30% +359% 6.2% cautela (no operable) $713 40-59 $0.425 55% +30% 5.5% escalable $1,275
lleva 7 · proyeccion 38.9 ± 9.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.010 2% +120% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,140 40-59 $0.325 46% +42% 5.0% escalable $3,073
lleva 22 · proyeccion 35.5 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.680 73% +7% 3.9% escalable $4,289
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.5 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.040 23% +475% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.330 56% +70% 8.7% escalable $22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.5 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 3% +372% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $187 20-39 $0.215 48% +121% 8.3% escalable $777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.9 ± 6.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.070 19% +177% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $2,893
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 2% +284% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $12 20-24 $0.040 9% +136% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $10 15-19 $0.060 14% +136% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $0 10-14 $0.140 17% +24% 1.0% moderado $0 25-29 $0.047 5% +10% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.029 9% +222% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $83 10-14 $0.059 17% +196% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $199 20-24 $0.013 3% +176% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $82
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.075 24% +216% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $4,106 10-14 $0.029 6% +96% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,367
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).