Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.185 37% +102% 5.8% moderado $1,149 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.175 34% +97% 5.1% moderado $1,169 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.260 51% +95% 8.4% escalable $2,257 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.315 44% +39% 4.5% escalable $3,734 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.380 48% +26% 4.0% escalable $4,598 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.470 59% +25% 5.6% escalable $2,240 The White House 160-179 $0.170 20% +17% 0.9% moderado $1,903 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.260 29% +10% 0.9% escalable $4,958 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.235 26% +9% 0.7% escalable $682 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 20-39 $0.655 72% +9% 4.4% escalable $13,651
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,394 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 380 · proyeccion 969.3 ± 122.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.035 40% +1051% 9.5% cautela (no operable) $7,007 960-999 $0.021 13% +514% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $10,755 920-959 $0.045 13% +176% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $5,141 880-919 $0.065 11% +70% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,785
lleva 43 · proyeccion 227.4 ± 68.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 8% +5045% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $48,580 300-319 $0.002 6% +3700% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $50,474 320-339 $0.002 4% +2480% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $52,805 260-279 $0.005 10% +1647% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $19,788 240-259 $0.013 11% +780% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $15,302 220-239 $0.034 12% +245% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $12,266 80-99 $0.005 2% +213% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $80,972 200-219 $0.085 11% +32% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $16,121
lleva 142 · proyeccion 200.6 ± 38.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.003 9% +3010% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $102,600 260-279 $0.002 4% +2782% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $87,779 220-239 $0.015 16% +900% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $87,449 200-219 $0.095 20% +109% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $90,380 140-159 $0.043 9% +100% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $232,242
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,553 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 45 · proyeccion 151.6 ± 34.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 19% +12291% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $709 140-159 $0.023 23% +882% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $1,026 160-179 $0.170 20% +17% 0.9% moderado $1,903
lleva 151 · proyeccion 181.0 ± 18.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.060 35% +475% 7.6% cautela (no operable) $9,210
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 155.4 ± 36.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 4% +699% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,673 120-139 $0.024 17% +605% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $761 100-119 $0.015 10% +589% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $982 140-159 $0.090 21% +137% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $1,884
lleva 141 · proyeccion 174.8 ± 21.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.040 34% +766% 7.9% cautela (no operable) $6,468 180-199 $0.260 29% +10% 0.9% escalable $4,958
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,669 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 53 · proyeccion 133.6 ± 22.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.051 20% +289% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $1,113 120-139 $0.175 34% +97% 5.1% moderado $1,169
lleva 150 · proyeccion 172.8 ± 11.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.060 13% +110% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $2,372 160-179 $0.470 59% +25% 5.6% escalable $2,240
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 76.9 ± 13.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 5% +377% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $569 80-99 $0.185 37% +102% 5.8% moderado $1,149
lleva 49 · proyeccion 68.7 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.038 9% +130% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,951 40-59 $0.097 12% +27% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,033
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 844 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.2 ± 8.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.380 48% +26% 4.0% escalable $4,598 <20 $0.009 1% +17% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,560
lleva 30 · proyeccion 37.0 ± 4.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.655 72% +9% 4.4% escalable $13,651
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 462 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 20.1 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.260 51% +95% 8.4% escalable $2,257 40-59 $0.014 2% +28% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $471
lleva 14 · proyeccion 18.7 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.315 44% +39% 4.5% escalable $3,734
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 6% +981% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.045 16% +262% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.005 2% +225% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.235 26% +9% 0.7% escalable $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.3 ± 3.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.075 26% +241% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $2,790 10-14 $0.015 3% +112% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,247
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).