CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-15 08:24 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk65-89$0.21547%+117%8.0%escalable$90,463
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.18539%+111%6.3%moderado$1,050
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.30053%+75%8.1%escalable$1,899
Ted Cruz180-199$0.23537%+56%4.3%escalable$373
Donald Trump160-179$0.14022%+55%2.2%moderado$3,825
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.13520%+50%1.9%moderado$985
Ted Cruz160-179$0.30542%+39%4.3%escalable$742
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.31040%+29%3.2%escalable$4,155
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.23529%+24%1.9%escalable$2,083
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.42552%+21%3.9%escalable$3,066
Donald Trump140-159$0.10512%+17%0.5%moderado$2,614
Donald Trump120-139$0.11013%+14%0.4%moderado$697
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 346 · proyeccion 998.3 ± 129.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06050%+727%11.6%cautela (no operable)$6,478
960-999$0.02312%+429%2.5%cautela (no operable)$9,396
920-959$0.05311%+110%1.5%cautela (no operable)$4,524
lleva 9 · proyeccion 254.9 ± 79.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0025%+3196%1.2%cautela (no operable)$29,479
320-339$0.0036%+2484%1.6%cautela (no operable)$15,302
360-379$0.0024%+2268%0.8%cautela (no operable)$34,717
300-319$0.0058%+1485%1.9%cautela (no operable)$14,774
280-299$0.0139%+630%2.0%cautela (no operable)$13,126
260-279$0.01910%+406%2.0%cautela (no operable)$4,420
80-99$0.0031%+362%0.2%cautela (no operable)$45,259
240-259$0.04510%+122%1.4%cautela (no operable)$3,082
220-239$0.08510%+12%0.3%cautela (no operable)$3,893
lleva 108 · proyeccion 228.0 ± 55.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0035%+1865%1.2%cautela (no operable)$50,296
320-339$0.0023%+1717%0.6%cautela (no operable)$34,978
280-299$0.0048%+1630%1.8%cautela (no operable)$50,188
260-279$0.01111%+933%2.5%cautela (no operable)$51,418
120-139$0.0033%+901%0.7%cautela (no operable)$107,697
240-259$0.03213%+322%2.6%cautela (no operable)$39,459
220-239$0.09514%+51%1.3%cautela (no operable)$25,132
lleva 56 · proyeccion 65.9 ± 15.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.0047%+1598%1.6%cautela (no operable)$116,488
65-89$0.21547%+117%8.0%escalable$90,463
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 19 · proyeccion 149.8 ± 38.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00518%+3472%4.4%cautela (no operable)$458
140-159$0.00620%+3311%5.0%cautela (no operable)$522
100-119$0.00512%+2297%2.9%cautela (no operable)$484
80-99$0.0046%+1273%1.4%cautela (no operable)$747
160-179$0.02418%+667%4.0%cautela (no operable)$699
60-79$0.0042%+444%0.5%cautela (no operable)$781
lleva 125 · proyeccion 179.3 ± 24.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01129%+2670%7.1%cautela (no operable)$4,110
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 42 · proyeccion 167.8 ± 42.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0020%+168%0.1%cautela (no operable)$3,254
100-119$0.0407%+86%0.9%cautela (no operable)$506
120-139$0.11013%+14%0.4%moderado$697
lleva 121 · proyeccion 187.2 ± 30.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0095%+387%0.9%cautela (no operable)$1,596
160-179$0.14022%+55%2.2%moderado$3,825
140-159$0.10512%+17%0.5%moderado$2,614
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 39 · proyeccion 138.2 ± 24.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 136 · proyeccion 177.4 ± 15.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.07012%+72%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,038
180-199$0.23537%+56%4.3%escalable$373
120-139$0.0051%+46%0.1%cautela (no operable)$863
160-179$0.30542%+39%4.3%escalable$742
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 78.8 ± 15.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0289%+215%1.6%cautela (no operable)$479
80-99$0.18539%+111%6.3%moderado$1,050
120-139$0.0040%+29%0.0%cautela (no operable)$310
20-39$0.0051%+16%0.0%cautela (no operable)$271
lleva 35 · proyeccion 70.7 ± 10.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.13520%+50%1.9%moderado$985
40-59$0.13015%+12%0.5%moderado$156
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.3 ± 10.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0051%+146%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,394
<20$0.0254%+49%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,228
40-59$0.31040%+29%3.2%escalable$4,155
lleva 19 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 6.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 1 · proyeccion 21.2 ± 10.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0094%+303%0.7%cautela (no operable)$463
20-39$0.30053%+75%8.1%escalable$1,899
lleva 11 · proyeccion 19.8 ± 6.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.42552%+21%3.9%escalable$3,066
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.3 ± 8.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.00511%+2030%2.5%cautela (no operable)$280
20-24$0.0054%+766%1.0%cautela (no operable)$180
25-29$0.0051%+150%0.2%cautela (no operable)$130
10-14$0.08519%+119%2.8%cautela (no operable)$372
5-9$0.21523%+8%0.5%escalable$564
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.0 ± 5.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.00714%+1756%3.3%cautela (no operable)$1,081
15-19$0.0043%+856%0.8%cautela (no operable)$897
5-9$0.23529%+24%1.9%escalable$2,083