Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.140 42% +202% 8.2% moderado $2,967 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.345 56% +63% 8.3% escalable $4,485 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.335 41% +24% 3.0% escalable $2,155
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,506 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.54x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 500 · proyeccion 979.4 ± 110.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.029 43% +1376% 10.3% cautela (no operable) $8,195 960-999 $0.017 14% +744% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $13,331 920-959 $0.034 13% +301% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $7,942 880-919 $0.075 11% +48% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $6,175
lleva 163 · proyeccion 238.1 ± 43.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.003 2% +750% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $110,027 160-179 $0.008 5% +576% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $173,435 340-359 $0.002 1% +401% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $67,657 300-319 $0.011 5% +366% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $113,952 280-299 $0.028 9% +228% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $144,100 260-279 $0.083 14% +70% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $149,842 360-379 $0.002 0% +44% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $62,163
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,616 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.34x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 113 · proyeccion 153.3 ± 21.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 5% +2449% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,008 120-139 $0.035 20% +486% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $2,704 180-199 $0.030 9% +211% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $9,965 200+ $0.006 2% +156% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $8,502
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 93.6 ± 21.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 28% +18527% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $4,589 80-99 $0.002 36% +17745% 8.9% cautela (no operable) $4,988
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,720 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.98x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 109 · proyeccion 140.2 ± 13.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.024 6% +170% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,691 120-139 $0.335 41% +24% 3.0% escalable $2,155
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,736 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.24x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 40 · proyeccion 61.0 ± 8.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.345 56% +63% 8.3% escalable $4,485
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 853 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.86x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 23 · proyeccion 33.2 ± 5.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.042 12% +187% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $7,285
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 467 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.34x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 11 · proyeccion 18.3 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.140 42% +202% 8.2% moderado $2,967
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.5 ± 5.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.037 29% +683% 6.6% cautela (no operable) $1,990 10-14 $0.016 11% +616% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $1,044 15-19 $0.005 2% +317% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $905
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).