Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.155 73% +374% 17.1% moderado $4,207 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.125 41% +227% 8.1% moderado $74 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.135 42% +210% 8.2% moderado $777 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.105 24% +128% 3.8% moderado $2,389 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.155 31% +101% 4.6% moderado $340 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.325 58% +77% 9.3% escalable $743 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.105 17% +66% 1.9% moderado $0 Donald Trump 200+ $0.250 38% +51% 4.2% escalable $1,030 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.180 27% +47% 2.6% moderado $216 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.430 59% +38% 7.2% escalable $1,350 The White House 140-159 $0.157 22% +37% 1.7% moderado $954 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.130 17% +32% 1.2% moderado $1,468
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,219 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 204 · proyeccion 1093.8 ± 150.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.155 73% +374% 17.1% moderado $4,207 960-999 $0.065 8% +22% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $2,903
lleva 0 · proyeccion 353.5 ± 95.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 6% +4047% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $20,143 420-439 $0.002 6% +3961% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $3,979 400-419 $0.003 7% +2719% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,258 380-399 $0.004 8% +2128% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,062 360-379 $0.007 8% +1002% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $983 340-359 $0.009 8% +830% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $965 320-339 $0.010 8% +712% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,528 300-319 $0.017 8% +356% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,434 280-299 $0.028 7% +139% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $4,588
lleva 52 · proyeccion 252.9 ± 71.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 4% +2902% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $39,141 320-339 $0.003 6% +1998% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $40,516 300-319 $0.004 8% +1710% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $27,116 380-399 $0.002 2% +1118% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $33,965 280-299 $0.011 10% +829% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $23,695 260-279 $0.027 11% +300% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $12,563 100-119 $0.005 2% +176% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $57,909 240-259 $0.075 11% +48% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $8,936 120-139 $0.019 3% +30% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $51,155
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.2 ± 54.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 10% +6466% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $711 140-164 $0.003 15% +5772% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $662 115-139 $0.011 18% +1595% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $160 90-114 $0.045 18% +290% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $321
lleva 136 · proyeccion 210.4 ± 43.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 4% +2299% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $93,612 260-279 $0.004 7% +1534% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $85,381 240-259 $0.018 12% +598% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $84,783 140-159 $0.018 7% +298% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $115,883 220-239 $0.055 17% +200% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $76,826
lleva 20 · proyeccion 56.2 ± 30.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.009 11% +1183% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $54,084 65-89 $0.065 26% +293% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $49,044
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,338 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 180.7 ± 46.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 9% +1604% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $120 100-119 $0.005 5% +874% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $120 80-99 $0.005 3% +364% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $139 60-79 $0.005 1% +84% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $169 140-159 $0.076 14% +80% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $268
lleva 37 · proyeccion 149.5 ± 36.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 19% +5216% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $414 100-119 $0.003 12% +3912% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $453 140-159 $0.157 22% +37% 1.7% moderado $954
lleva 122 · proyeccion 158.9 ± 21.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 15% +3590% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $1,770 140-159 $0.081 33% +312% 6.9% cautela (no operable) $5,155
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,083 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 183.3 ± 51.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.250 38% +51% 4.2% escalable $1,030 20-39 $0.002 0% +24% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $567 160-179 $0.125 15% +19% 0.7% moderado $474 60-79 $0.012 1% +14% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $197 180-199 $0.140 15% +9% 0.4% moderado $555
lleva 50 · proyeccion 152.8 ± 38.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.007 5% +628% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $671 60-79 $0.005 2% +315% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $917 40-59 $0.002 1% +304% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,343 100-119 $0.035 11% +220% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,353 120-139 $0.130 17% +32% 1.2% moderado $1,468 140-159 $0.170 20% +20% 1.0% moderado $936 160-179 $0.165 19% +13% 0.7% moderado $1,339
lleva 144 · proyeccion 188.0 ± 25.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.105 24% +128% 3.8% moderado $2,389 140-159 $0.055 10% +86% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $3,031
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,487 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 140.1 ± 27.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.050 16% +229% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.180 27% +47% 2.6% moderado $216 180-199 $0.045 6% +38% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $0 120-139 $0.200 26% +31% 1.9% escalable $0
lleva 36 · proyeccion 121.0 ± 21.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.155 31% +101% 4.6% moderado $340 80-99 $0.089 13% +49% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $412 60-79 $0.018 3% +43% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $124 120-139 $0.285 33% +16% 1.6% escalable $368
lleva 130 · proyeccion 158.9 ± 12.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 6% +465% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $946 140-159 $0.385 46% +19% 2.9% escalable $2,631
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,651 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 104.4 ± 17.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.049 17% +255% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $40 100-119 $0.125 41% +227% 8.1% moderado $74
lleva 19 · proyeccion 81.9 ± 13.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.090 10% +10% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $452 80-99 $0.435 47% +7% 1.4% escalable $640
lleva 49 · proyeccion 71.4 ± 8.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 804 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 49.4 ± 12.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.074 19% +163% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $753 40-59 $0.430 59% +38% 7.2% escalable $1,350
lleva 12 · proyeccion 39.8 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.005 1% +143% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,369 40-59 $0.405 50% +23% 3.9% escalable $3,583
lleva 27 · proyeccion 36.4 ± 5.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.630 72% +15% 6.3% escalable $5,009
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.8 ± 12.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.024 19% +685% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.325 58% +77% 9.3% escalable $743
lleva 0 · proyeccion 17.8 ± 9.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.135 42% +210% 8.2% moderado $777 40-59 $0.006 1% +126% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $358
lleva 6 · proyeccion 12.1 ± 5.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.029 10% +243% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $3,084
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.2 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.005 2% +289% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $12 15-19 $0.045 14% +212% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $0 20-24 $0.049 9% +88% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $11 10-14 $0.105 17% +66% 1.9% moderado $0 25-29 $0.043 5% +14% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.1 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.018 9% +370% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $118 10-14 $0.040 17% +332% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $234 20-24 $0.017 3% +81% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $117
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 4.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.075 23% +202% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $4,142 10-14 $0.017 4% +171% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,415
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.