Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.200 57% +186% 11.7% escalable $49 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,108 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.125 32% +160% 5.7% moderado $1,894 CZ (Binance) 40-59 $0.100 22% +123% 3.4% moderado $60 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.290 64% +121% 12.4% escalable $140 The White House 200+ $0.225 48% +112% 8.1% escalable $24 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.195 37% +90% 5.5% moderado $1,664 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 120-139 $0.130 25% +89% 3.3% moderado $0 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.170 31% +81% 4.1% moderado $312 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.160 27% +70% 3.3% moderado $179 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.145 23% +62% 2.6% moderado $14,493 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.115 18% +60% 1.9% moderado $583
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,826 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2481.8 ± 252.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,108
lleva 0 · proyeccion 378.6 ± 98.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 11% +7227% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $7,237 400-419 $0.002 8% +5033% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,173 420-439 $0.002 7% +4620% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $512 380-399 $0.003 8% +3115% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,527 360-379 $0.004 8% +2200% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,398 340-359 $0.013 8% +496% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,752 320-339 $0.016 7% +346% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $614 300-319 $0.021 6% +209% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $303 280-299 $0.028 5% +96% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $406
lleva 33 · proyeccion 263.0 ± 76.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 3% +1692% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $10,305 360-379 $0.003 4% +1493% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $15,035 340-359 $0.004 6% +1125% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $16,199 400-419 $0.002 2% +1031% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $13,553 320-339 $0.006 7% +998% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $15,658 300-319 $0.011 9% +651% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $10,172 280-299 $0.019 10% +401% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $5,810 260-279 $0.036 10% +183% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $6,468 80-99 $0.004 1% +134% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $32,271 240-259 $0.065 10% +57% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $4,941
lleva 0 · proyeccion 146.0 ± 61.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.016 15% +865% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $87 215-239 $0.008 7% +753% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $8 140-164 $0.040 16% +303% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $428 165-189 $0.040 14% +257% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $428 190-214 $0.045 11% +138% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $8 90-114 $0.065 13% +93% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $37 240+ $0.045 6% +40% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $8
lleva 90 · proyeccion 194.2 ± 51.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.007 5% +668% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $38,115 240-259 $0.013 9% +570% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $34,755 280-299 $0.004 3% +536% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $35,587 300-319 $0.003 1% +425% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $35,748 100-119 $0.010 4% +307% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $105,175 220-239 $0.035 12% +253% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $38,440 320-339 $0.003 1% +108% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $33,358 200-219 $0.095 15% +55% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $34,599
lleva 813 · proyeccion 896.4 ± 46.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 960-999 $0.012 7% +510% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $33,556 920-959 $0.036 22% +509% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $28,511 800-839 $0.048 9% +90% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $84,413 1000+ $0.007 1% +71% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $25,603 880-919 $0.280 33% +19% 1.9% escalable $26,372
lleva 4 · proyeccion 71.3 ± 41.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 4% +1411% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $8,209 115-139 $0.012 10% +723% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $30,241 165-189 $0.002 1% +578% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $8,865 90-114 $0.035 18% +426% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $17,232 65-89 $0.145 23% +62% 2.6% moderado $14,493
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,901 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9% Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x 27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 196.8 ± 45.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.225 48% +112% 8.1% escalable $24 120-139 $0.032 6% +86% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $8 140-159 $0.065 10% +57% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $12
lleva 32 · proyeccion 157.9 ± 36.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 9% +2924% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $141 120-139 $0.025 16% +534% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $239 80-99 $0.011 4% +258% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $120 140-159 $0.077 21% +177% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $254 60-79 $0.005 1% +110% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $176
lleva 110 · proyeccion 158.8 ± 22.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 15% +2995% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $2,043 140-159 $0.080 32% +298% 6.5% cautela (no operable) $3,305
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,661 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 203.9 ± 54.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 2% +207% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $147 120-139 $0.025 6% +138% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $269 60-79 $0.005 1% +35% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $161 100-119 $0.025 3% +34% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $140 160-179 $0.105 12% +13% 0.4% moderado $289
lleva 41 · proyeccion 162.3 ± 42.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 14% +2430% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $393 100-119 $0.005 9% +1483% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $290 80-99 $0.006 4% +629% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $181 60-79 $0.003 2% +488% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $193 140-159 $0.049 18% +264% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $413 40-59 $0.004 1% +64% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $725 160-179 $0.115 18% +60% 1.9% moderado $583 180-199 $0.130 15% +17% 0.7% moderado $1,055
lleva 156 · proyeccion 215.3 ± 29.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.005 8% +1571% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,631 180-199 $0.065 18% +182% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $3,284
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,963 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6% Sobre-dispersion: 7.14x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 156.8 ± 33.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 19 · proyeccion 119.1 ± 26.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 16% +3150% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $178 100-119 $0.046 27% +490% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $130 60-79 $0.026 6% +117% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $115 120-139 $0.160 27% +70% 3.3% moderado $179
lleva 121 · proyeccion 160.5 ± 16.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.195 37% +90% 5.5% moderado $1,664 120-139 $0.065 10% +51% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $808
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,964 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 117.4 ± 29.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.130 25% +89% 3.3% moderado $0 100-119 $0.200 26% +29% 1.8% escalable $70
lleva 14 · proyeccion 87.6 ± 23.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.090 22% +144% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $464 20-39 $0.011 2% +65% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $140 40-59 $0.082 9% +14% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $243
lleva 97 · proyeccion 129.4 ± 15.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 3% +408% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $887 100-119 $0.165 23% +42% 2.1% moderado $1,196
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 899 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 52.7 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 28% +4908% 6.8% cautela (no operable) $43 40-59 $0.200 57% +186% 11.7% escalable $49 80-99 $0.005 1% +151% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $43
lleva 3 · proyeccion 34.9 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.170 31% +81% 4.1% moderado $312 <20 $0.043 5% +22% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $141
lleva 23 · proyeccion 36.7 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.125 32% +160% 5.7% moderado $1,894
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 522 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.4 ± 12.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.100 22% +123% 3.4% moderado $60 60-79 $0.005 1% +77% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $60
lleva 14 · proyeccion 33.7 ± 10.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.290 64% +121% 12.4% escalable $140
lleva 34 · proyeccion 41.8 ± 6.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.7 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.040 8% +110% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $0 5-9 $0.170 19% +12% 0.6% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.050 24% +388% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $677 20-24 $0.006 3% +318% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $251 15-19 $0.020 8% +299% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $225 10-14 $0.149 17% +14% 0.6% moderado $361
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.8 ± 4.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 4% +719% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,485 5-9 $0.032 23% +620% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $1,016
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).