Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.110 28% +159% 4.9% moderado $2,503 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.210 47% +126% 8.4% escalable $1,075 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.200 37% +86% 5.4% escalable $1,588 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.285 51% +78% 7.8% escalable $1,173 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.305 52% +69% 7.6% escalable $2,252 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.340 44% +30% 3.8% escalable $4,155 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.395 48% +22% 3.6% escalable $3,364 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.205 25% +22% 1.4% escalable $584 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.160 19% +21% 1.0% moderado $1,550 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.275 33% +19% 1.8% escalable $626
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,363 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 359 · proyeccion 990.3 ± 127.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 47% +685% 10.9% cautela (no operable) $6,478 960-999 $0.024 12% +419% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $9,540 920-959 $0.069 12% +67% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,615
lleva 22 · proyeccion 247.7 ± 76.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 6% +3821% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $51,975 300-319 $0.003 8% +2913% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $42,511 280-299 $0.004 9% +1901% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $29,425 260-279 $0.009 10% +958% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $10,727 240-259 $0.024 10% +345% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $7,441 80-99 $0.004 1% +204% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $55,490 220-239 $0.055 10% +85% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $6,165
lleva 121 · proyeccion 220.8 ± 50.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 6% +4099% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $76,443 300-319 $0.002 3% +2185% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $72,108 260-279 $0.004 10% +2104% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $70,058 240-259 $0.015 13% +822% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $70,443 120-139 $0.007 3% +318% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $143,146 220-239 $0.059 15% +164% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $48,831 140-159 $0.053 6% +10% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $123,754
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,534 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 33 · proyeccion 153.2 ± 37.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 21% +4145% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $588 120-139 $0.005 17% +3389% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $563 80-99 $0.002 5% +2399% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $747 100-119 $0.005 11% +2054% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $601 60-79 $0.002 2% +771% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $781 160-179 $0.029 19% +581% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $976
lleva 139 · proyeccion 182.6 ± 22.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.021 29% +1337% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $5,512
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,261 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 175.6 ± 40.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.075 10% +38% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $697 100-119 $0.040 5% +32% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $628 160-179 $0.160 19% +21% 1.0% moderado $1,550
lleva 141 · proyeccion 195.1 ± 27.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.055 19% +241% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $4,617 140-159 $0.032 8% +141% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $3,063
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,655 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 41 · proyeccion 133.0 ± 23.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.275 33% +19% 1.8% escalable $626
lleva 138 · proyeccion 172.1 ± 14.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 1% +463% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,267 140-159 $0.050 18% +256% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $2,060 160-179 $0.285 51% +78% 7.8% escalable $1,173
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,711 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 15 · proyeccion 84.7 ± 15.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 15% +1342% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $562 120-139 $0.004 1% +183% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $322 80-99 $0.210 47% +126% 8.4% escalable $1,075
lleva 47 · proyeccion 76.6 ± 9.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 1% +210% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $276 40-59 $0.017 4% +141% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,224 80-99 $0.200 37% +86% 5.4% escalable $1,588
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 835 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 8 · proyeccion 38.4 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 1% +112% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,474 40-59 $0.340 44% +30% 3.8% escalable $4,155
lleva 24 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 5.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 460 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.009 3% +220% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.305 52% +69% 7.6% escalable $2,252
lleva 12 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.395 48% +22% 3.6% escalable $3,364
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 8% +1454% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 2% +360% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $180 10-14 $0.080 17% +115% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $372 5-9 $0.205 25% +22% 1.4% escalable $584
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.006 6% +900% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,152 5-9 $0.110 28% +159% 4.9% moderado $2,503 15-19 $0.002 0% +142% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $972
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).