Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.180 77% +328% 18.0% moderado $3,469 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.190 46% +144% 8.4% moderado $1,722 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.115 19% +64% 2.1% moderado $356 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.355 54% +52% 7.1% escalable $754 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 43% +49% 5.0% escalable $2,339 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.145 20% +40% 1.7% moderado $1,916 The White House 160-179 $0.225 28% +24% 1.7% escalable $3,277 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.215 26% +21% 1.4% escalable $2,670 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.115 14% +19% 0.6% moderado $174 Elon Musk 220-239 $0.115 13% +16% 0.5% moderado $34,860 Elon Musk <40 $0.245 29% +16% 1.3% escalable $54,469 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.285 32% +12% 1.2% escalable $187
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,176 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4% Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x 39 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 161 · proyeccion 1115.2 ± 156.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.180 77% +328% 18.0% moderado $3,469
lleva 9 · proyeccion 272.7 ± 82.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.002 5% +2328% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $13,455 380-399 $0.002 4% +2264% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $18,789 340-359 $0.004 6% +1692% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $19,365 320-339 $0.007 8% +918% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,783 80-99 $0.002 1% +446% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $32,369 300-319 $0.019 9% +349% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $9,440 280-299 $0.034 9% +179% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $11,470 100-119 $0.009 1% +52% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $31,428 260-279 $0.065 10% +49% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $3,806 240-259 $0.085 9% +10% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,115
lleva 93 · proyeccion 230.1 ± 59.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.004 6% +1474% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $46,506 320-339 $0.003 3% +1231% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $33,179 340-359 $0.002 2% +1098% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $34,623 280-299 $0.010 8% +715% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $35,835 260-279 $0.021 11% +401% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $40,247 120-139 $0.009 3% +258% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $64,704 240-259 $0.048 13% +165% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $31,943 220-239 $0.115 13% +16% 0.5% moderado $34,860
lleva 0 · proyeccion 98.9 ± 50.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 11% +4448% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $1,305 165-189 $0.002 6% +3922% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,274 115-139 $0.011 17% +1430% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $4,286 90-114 $0.045 20% +335% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $2,858
lleva 27 · proyeccion 52.6 ± 25.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.004 7% +1814% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $46,833 115-139 $0.002 1% +399% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $45,797 65-89 $0.055 25% +348% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $33,615 <40 $0.245 29% +16% 1.3% escalable $54,469
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,312 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 18 · proyeccion 149.6 ± 39.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 18% +5755% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $344 100-119 $0.004 12% +3349% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $424 140-159 $0.011 20% +1632% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $374 160-179 $0.075 18% +135% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $628
lleva 103 · proyeccion 159.0 ± 25.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 16% +3143% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $530 100-119 $0.002 5% +2532% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $463 140-159 $0.013 28% +1992% 6.8% cautela (no operable) $1,314 160-179 $0.225 28% +24% 1.7% escalable $3,277
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,037 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 134.4 ± 43.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.004 3% +519% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $307 60-79 $0.015 6% +305% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $311 20-39 $0.003 1% +245% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $590 80-99 $0.064 11% +70% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $540
lleva 98 · proyeccion 169.5 ± 32.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.006 5% +653% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $2,906 120-139 $0.048 12% +143% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,504 140-159 $0.145 20% +40% 1.7% moderado $1,916 180-199 $0.190 20% +7% 0.4% moderado $2,437
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,454 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 115.1 ± 23.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.030 6% +87% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $97 80-99 $0.115 19% +64% 2.1% moderado $356 100-119 $0.285 32% +12% 1.2% escalable $187
lleva 108 · proyeccion 153.0 ± 15.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.032 18% +470% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $549 140-159 $0.190 46% +144% 8.4% moderado $1,722
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,634 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.0% Sobre-dispersion: 3.09x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 83.1 ± 15.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.115 14% +19% 0.6% moderado $174
lleva 35 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 10.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.095 11% +17% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $336 80-99 $0.230 25% +11% 0.8% escalable $1,733
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 795 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 38.2 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 43% +49% 5.0% escalable $2,339
lleva 17 · proyeccion 34.8 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.215 26% +21% 1.4% escalable $2,670
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.1 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.015 6% +282% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $65 20-39 $0.355 54% +52% 7.1% escalable $754
lleva 6 · proyeccion 16.4 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.305 34% +12% 1.3% escalable $2,548
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.013 6% +350% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $52 10-14 $0.060 18% +200% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $199 15-19 $0.043 12% +172% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $53
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 6.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 3% +467% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,252 10-14 $0.032 12% +294% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $2,068
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.