Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.110 45% +310% 9.6% moderado $404 Elon Musk 180-199 $0.145 38% +161% 6.8% moderado $177,757 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.250 57% +130% 10.8% escalable $1,246 The White House 160-179 $0.110 25% +128% 4.0% moderado $2,916 The White House 200+ $0.355 70% +98% 13.5% escalable $0 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.245 47% +93% 7.5% escalable $430 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 120-139 $0.200 39% +93% 5.8% escalable $0 Donald Trump 200+ $0.295 54% +83% 8.7% escalable $134 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.125 21% +71% 2.5% moderado $74 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.105 18% +70% 2.1% moderado $99 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.315 53% +68% 7.9% escalable $3,896 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.160 27% +66% 3.1% moderado $467
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,251 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 236 · proyeccion 1061.2 ± 145.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.075 66% +786% 15.9% cautela (no operable) $4,755 960-999 $0.033 9% +188% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,129 920-959 $0.043 8% +80% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $2,601
lleva 0 · proyeccion 417.0 ± 103.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 21% +14041% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $244 420-439 $0.003 8% +2963% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $144 440-459 $0.003 7% +2837% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $144 400-419 $0.003 8% +2464% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $144 380-399 $0.003 7% +2382% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $144 360-379 $0.005 7% +1162% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $150 320-339 $0.011 5% +414% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $155 340-359 $0.013 6% +362% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $219 300-319 $0.025 4% +80% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $161
lleva 0 · proyeccion 290.4 ± 86.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 5% +3090% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,920 400-419 $0.002 4% +2281% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $10,795 360-379 $0.004 6% +1636% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,428 340-359 $0.004 7% +1524% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,114 320-339 $0.006 8% +1290% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,212 440-459 $0.002 2% +1030% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $11,270 300-319 $0.015 9% +482% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,638 500+ $0.002 1% +409% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $23,479 280-299 $0.025 9% +277% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $7,982 260-279 $0.045 9% +99% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,644 80-99 $0.004 1% +76% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $17,995
lleva 0 · proyeccion 179.9 ± 67.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240+ $0.002 19% +12566% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $903 165-189 $0.002 15% +9636% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $571 190-214 $0.002 14% +9149% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $48 140-164 $0.002 13% +8862% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $571 215-239 $0.002 12% +7582% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $819 115-139 $0.009 11% +1173% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $756 90-114 $0.036 8% +109% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $129
lleva 84 · proyeccion 222.6 ± 59.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 5% +2999% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $49,392 280-299 $0.004 7% +1941% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $43,629 260-279 $0.006 10% +1536% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $31,629 240-259 $0.015 12% +732% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $28,121 100-119 $0.006 2% +243% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $79,651 220-239 $0.045 13% +194% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $21,397 200-219 $0.115 13% +13% 0.4% moderado $26,515
lleva 9 · proyeccion 62.9 ± 37.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.002 6% +4094% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $8,468 90-114 $0.004 15% +3338% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $12,487 65-89 $0.055 25% +347% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $17,292
lleva 168 · proyeccion 180.1 ± 17.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200-219 $0.007 12% +1647% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $206,830 180-199 $0.145 38% +161% 6.8% moderado $177,757
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,392 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.81x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 227.0 ± 51.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.355 70% +98% 13.5% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.4 ± 42.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 16% +3996% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $605 100-119 $0.004 12% +2464% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $611 80-99 $0.005 7% +1205% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $634 140-159 $0.015 19% +1105% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $885 60-79 $0.005 3% +492% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $660 160-179 $0.160 17% +7% 0.3% moderado $1,097
lleva 87 · proyeccion 169.6 ± 31.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 11% +2162% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $1,157 140-159 $0.010 21% +1955% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $1,880 160-179 $0.110 25% +128% 4.0% moderado $2,916
lleva 172 · proyeccion 179.0 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.004 1% +175% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $15,647 160-179 $0.335 50% +51% 6.4% escalable $15,430
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,126 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.41x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.9 ± 54.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.295 54% +83% 8.7% escalable $134 60-79 $0.006 1% +13% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $25
lleva 0 · proyeccion 146.1 ± 45.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 2% +874% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,077 60-79 $0.007 4% +484% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $369 20-39 $0.002 1% +379% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,413 80-99 $0.041 8% +102% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,048 120-139 $0.130 16% +24% 0.9% moderado $314 100-119 $0.113 13% +12% 0.4% moderado $1,041
lleva 90 · proyeccion 155.6 ± 30.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 3% +1725% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,282 100-119 $0.012 9% +618% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,160 120-139 $0.050 18% +260% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $2,208
lleva 184 · proyeccion 190.7 ± 9.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,518 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.2 ± 30.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.1 ± 25.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.021 6% +192% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $520 80-99 $0.125 18% +45% 1.6% moderado $200
lleva 67 · proyeccion 127.7 ± 18.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.030 6% +92% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $450 100-119 $0.160 27% +66% 3.1% moderado $467 120-139 $0.310 41% +33% 3.7% escalable $601
lleva 161 · proyeccion 165.6 ± 5.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,664 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 128.5 ± 19.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.200 39% +93% 5.8% escalable $0 100-119 $0.205 25% +23% 1.5% escalable $0 140-159 $0.200 23% +16% 1.0% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 88.0 ± 16.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.125 21% +71% 2.5% moderado $74 80-99 $0.410 46% +11% 1.9% escalable $247 120-139 $0.025 3% +8% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $90
lleva 32 · proyeccion 79.0 ± 12.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.044 5% +17% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,820 80-99 $0.390 44% +13% 2.0% escalable $958
lleva 62 · proyeccion 68.4 ± 4.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 60.3 ± 13.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 7% +4748% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $122 60-79 $0.110 45% +310% 9.6% moderado $404 100-119 $0.002 0% +5% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.9 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.009 2% +124% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $926 40-59 $0.315 53% +68% 7.9% escalable $3,896
lleva 19 · proyeccion 39.3 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.425 49% +14% 2.6% escalable $4,380 <20 $0.004 1% +12% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,660
lleva 34 · proyeccion 35.9 ± 2.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.029 6% +114% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $7,106
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 36.4 ± 14.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 36% +6511% 9.0% cautela (no operable) $82 60-79 $0.005 5% +795% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $93 20-39 $0.245 47% +93% 7.5% escalable $430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.8 ± 11.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 10% +1448% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $368 20-39 $0.250 57% +130% 10.8% escalable $1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 13.8 ± 8.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.040 25% +542% 5.6% cautela (no operable) $992
lleva 6 · proyeccion 8.1 ± 3.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.7 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.099 15% +48% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $0 35-39 $0.016 2% +25% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $20 20-24 $0.100 11% +14% 0.4% moderado $10 10-14 $0.150 16% +7% 0.3% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.2 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 1% +138% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $100 20-24 $0.035 8% +131% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $100 15-19 $0.065 13% +106% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $88 10-14 $0.105 18% +70% 2.1% moderado $99
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.029 15% +422% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $470 15-19 $0.028 6% +120% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $279 5-9 $0.175 25% +41% 2.2% moderado $965 20-24 $0.011 2% +38% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $275
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.7 ± 3.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.038 10% +167% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $6,311
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).