Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.150 61% +305% 13.5% moderado $93 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.340 100% +194% 25.0% escalable $2,045 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.120 35% +188% 6.4% moderado $4,709 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.115 25% +115% 3.7% moderado $712 The White House 140-159 $0.106 23% +114% 3.4% moderado $311 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.150 29% +96% 4.2% moderado $1,398 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.160 30% +86% 4.1% moderado $180 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 120-139 $0.125 21% +70% 2.5% moderado $41 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.120 20% +66% 2.2% moderado $984 CZ (Binance) 40-59 $0.110 17% +57% 1.8% moderado $60 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.200 31% +54% 3.4% escalable $49,287 The White House 140-159 $0.255 38% +47% 4.0% escalable $3,725
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,856 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2448.3 ± 250.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.340 100% +194% 25.0% escalable $2,045
lleva 0 · proyeccion 345.8 ± 94.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 5% +3323% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $9,369 380-399 $0.003 8% +2433% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $6,179 460-479 $0.002 4% +2288% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $5,402 400-419 $0.003 7% +2146% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $6,587 420-439 $0.003 6% +1803% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5,517 440-459 $0.003 5% +1750% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $5,893 480-499 $0.002 3% +1668% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $5,402 360-379 $0.007 8% +1071% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,649 340-359 $0.011 8% +705% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,359 320-339 $0.015 8% +438% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $2,137 300-319 $0.021 8% +283% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $556 280-299 $0.029 7% +144% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,817 260-279 $0.055 6% +11% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $492
lleva 61 · proyeccion 258.3 ± 71.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.003 3% +1229% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $17,021 340-359 $0.005 5% +799% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $19,067 320-339 $0.008 7% +750% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $20,452 380-399 $0.003 2% +726% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $11,713 300-319 $0.011 9% +724% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $15,408 400-419 $0.002 1% +690% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $16,843 80-99 $0.002 1% +354% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $51,940 280-299 $0.024 10% +333% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $10,247 420-439 $0.002 1% +320% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $14,578 260-279 $0.048 11% +133% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $10,191 100-119 $0.007 1% +69% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $28,749 240-259 $0.085 11% +30% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $7,570
lleva 0 · proyeccion 113.3 ± 53.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 9% +6063% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $2,144 190-214 $0.002 5% +3137% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $479 140-164 $0.007 14% +1935% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $2,206 115-139 $0.018 18% +916% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $1,641 90-114 $0.065 18% +176% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $2,829
lleva 118 · proyeccion 189.5 ± 42.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.004 3% +852% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $45,752 240-259 $0.009 7% +642% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $48,788 220-239 $0.018 12% +588% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $55,696 280-299 $0.003 1% +408% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $41,285 300-319 $0.002 0% +160% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $48,219 200-219 $0.065 17% +155% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $49,641 120-139 $0.031 7% +127% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $113,507
lleva 841 · proyeccion 891.7 ± 36.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 960-999 $0.003 3% +1046% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $34,801 920-959 $0.018 19% +929% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $34,653
lleva 32 · proyeccion 66.6 ± 29.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.005 5% +749% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $47,470 90-114 $0.025 17% +582% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $54,788 <40 $0.050 17% +242% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $78,700 65-89 $0.200 31% +54% 3.4% escalable $49,287
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,908 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9% Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x 27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 186.1 ± 43.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 4% +628% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $19 80-99 $0.005 2% +199% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $11 140-159 $0.080 13% +60% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $17 200+ $0.260 38% +46% 4.0% escalable $506
lleva 38 · proyeccion 153.3 ± 34.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.006 18% +2685% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $276 100-119 $0.006 10% +1498% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $324 80-99 $0.011 4% +290% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $168 60-79 $0.005 1% +132% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $223 140-159 $0.106 23% +114% 3.4% moderado $311
lleva 116 · proyeccion 154.3 ± 19.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.025 19% +638% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $2,468 180-199 $0.050 9% +81% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $5,536 140-159 $0.255 38% +47% 4.0% escalable $3,725
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,681 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.76x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 188.1 ± 52.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.006 3% +345% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $147 120-139 $0.025 8% +221% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $269 100-119 $0.022 5% +128% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $140 60-79 $0.005 1% +124% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $161 160-179 $0.105 14% +35% 1.0% moderado $289 140-159 $0.100 12% +16% 0.4% moderado $565 180-199 $0.135 15% +12% 0.5% moderado $395
lleva 60 · proyeccion 165.4 ± 39.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 13% +4351% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $511 100-119 $0.003 8% +2399% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $408 80-99 $0.003 3% +990% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $299 140-159 $0.043 18% +330% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $599 60-79 $0.006 1% +85% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $331 160-179 $0.120 20% +66% 2.2% moderado $984 180-199 $0.135 17% +24% 0.9% moderado $1,305
lleva 175 · proyeccion 218.4 ± 25.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.050 17% +231% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $3,810
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,979 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6% Sobre-dispersion: 7.13x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 147.4 ± 32.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.195 21% +7% 0.4% moderado $44
lleva 33 · proyeccion 123.5 ± 25.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 13% +2513% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $178 100-119 $0.047 26% +464% 5.7% cautela (no operable) $139 120-139 $0.160 30% +86% 4.1% moderado $180 60-79 $0.029 4% +21% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $116
lleva 135 · proyeccion 164.9 ± 14.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 4% +2559% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,082 140-159 $0.043 31% +630% 7.1% cautela (no operable) $1,813
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,969 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 108.6 ± 28.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.055 10% +84% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $20 120-139 $0.125 21% +70% 2.5% moderado $41 100-119 $0.195 28% +42% 2.6% moderado $105
lleva 19 · proyeccion 84.0 ± 21.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.049 11% +126% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $273 100-119 $0.085 19% +120% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $542 20-39 $0.015 2% +26% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $171
lleva 102 · proyeccion 125.8 ± 13.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.150 29% +96% 4.2% moderado $1,398 140-159 $0.118 14% +21% 0.7% moderado $1,015
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 900 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 48.0 ± 11.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 16% +2334% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $67 40-59 $0.150 61% +305% 13.5% moderado $93
lleva 4 · proyeccion 31.3 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.012 9% +642% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $380 40-59 $0.090 17% +91% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $540
lleva 24 · proyeccion 33.1 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.040 10% +154% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,953
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 526 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.4 ± 12.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.110 17% +57% 1.8% moderado $60 20-39 $0.475 59% +25% 5.6% escalable $228
lleva 16 · proyeccion 33.5 ± 9.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 36 · proyeccion 41.6 ± 5.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.120 35% +188% 6.4% moderado $4,709
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.4 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.072 18% +153% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $0 5-9 $0.080 19% +141% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $0 15-19 $0.072 14% +89% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $0 20-24 $0.076 8% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.7 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 7% +1368% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $306 10-14 $0.030 17% +454% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $388 20-24 $0.005 2% +288% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $278 5-9 $0.115 25% +115% 3.7% moderado $712
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.5 ± 4.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.026 21% +705% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $1,016 10-14 $0.005 3% +464% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,485
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).