Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.175 60% +243% 12.9% moderado $93 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,108 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.155 37% +141% 6.5% moderado $1,719 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.290 66% +126% 12.8% escalable $154 The White House 200+ $0.220 43% +97% 6.8% escalable $24 The White House 140-159 $0.175 34% +94% 5.0% moderado $3,398 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 120-139 $0.130 24% +88% 3.3% moderado $0 CZ (Binance) 40-59 $0.120 21% +77% 2.6% moderado $60 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.160 28% +75% 3.6% moderado $180 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.110 18% +67% 2.1% moderado $685 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.160 24% +52% 2.5% moderado $1,196 Elon Musk <40 $0.105 14% +37% 1.1% moderado $27,219
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,832 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2472.3 ± 251.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,108
lleva 0 · proyeccion 369.2 ± 97.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 9% +5909% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $8,816 420-439 $0.002 7% +4406% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $512 460-479 $0.002 5% +3113% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $5,394 480-499 $0.002 4% +2446% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $5,394 440-459 $0.003 6% +2232% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5,394 380-399 $0.004 8% +2189% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,627 400-419 $0.004 8% +2047% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $5,901 360-379 $0.007 8% +1070% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,538 340-359 $0.013 8% +542% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,752 320-339 $0.017 8% +357% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $638 300-319 $0.021 7% +231% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $353 280-299 $0.028 6% +113% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $656
lleva 48 · proyeccion 268.5 ± 75.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 2% +1129% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $16,693 380-399 $0.003 3% +1069% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $11,290 360-379 $0.004 4% +980% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $15,707 340-359 $0.006 6% +891% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $17,237 320-339 $0.009 8% +703% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $16,491 300-319 $0.015 9% +489% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $12,114 420-439 $0.003 1% +334% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $12,654 440-459 $0.002 1% +296% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $10,398 280-299 $0.029 10% +245% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $6,749 80-99 $0.002 1% +216% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $35,027 260-279 $0.050 11% +114% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $7,369 240-259 $0.085 10% +21% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $5,484
lleva 0 · proyeccion 136.5 ± 59.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 16% +10688% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $35 165-189 $0.002 13% +8761% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $450 190-214 $0.002 9% +6004% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $10 215-239 $0.002 5% +3426% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $10 240+ $0.002 4% +2627% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $80 115-139 $0.015 17% +1001% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $367 90-114 $0.055 14% +157% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $47
lleva 105 · proyeccion 199.7 ± 49.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 3% +1131% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $122,082 260-279 $0.007 6% +698% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $39,232 280-299 $0.004 3% +595% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $36,191 300-319 $0.003 1% +456% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $36,275 240-259 $0.018 10% +456% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $37,191 320-339 $0.002 1% +250% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $36,031 220-239 $0.052 13% +156% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $40,730 120-139 $0.024 6% +151% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $73,369 200-219 $0.135 16% +17% 0.7% moderado $36,388
lleva 828 · proyeccion 901.9 ± 43.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 920-959 $0.034 25% +647% 5.6% cautela (no operable) $30,863 960-999 $0.020 8% +302% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $34,084 800-839 $0.029 7% +133% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $88,774 1000+ $0.009 1% +39% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $25,718
lleva 19 · proyeccion 76.8 ± 38.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.004 4% +908% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $10,335 115-139 $0.013 11% +730% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $33,291 165-189 $0.002 1% +543% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $10,808 90-114 $0.045 21% +360% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $21,927 <40 $0.105 14% +37% 1.1% moderado $27,219
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,905 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9% Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x 27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 192.1 ± 44.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.033 7% +107% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $8 200+ $0.220 43% +97% 6.8% escalable $24 140-159 $0.065 11% +74% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $12 100-119 $0.031 3% +5% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $8
lleva 35 · proyeccion 156.1 ± 35.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 10% +3076% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $147 120-139 $0.021 17% +686% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $245 80-99 $0.011 4% +257% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $132 140-159 $0.081 22% +172% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $260 60-79 $0.005 1% +115% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $192
lleva 113 · proyeccion 157.1 ± 21.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 17% +3213% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $2,061 140-159 $0.175 34% +94% 5.0% moderado $3,398
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,663 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 196.7 ± 53.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.006 2% +247% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $147 120-139 $0.029 7% +131% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $269 60-79 $0.005 1% +70% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $161 100-119 $0.030 4% +32% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $140 160-179 $0.105 13% +24% 0.7% moderado $289 180-199 $0.135 15% +8% 0.3% moderado $395 140-159 $0.095 10% +6% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $565
lleva 43 · proyeccion 157.1 ± 41.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 15% +5036% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $425 100-119 $0.003 10% +3215% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $322 80-99 $0.006 5% +748% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $213 60-79 $0.003 2% +587% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $225 140-159 $0.029 19% +564% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $453 40-59 $0.003 1% +121% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $780 160-179 $0.110 18% +67% 2.1% moderado $685
lleva 158 · proyeccion 210.2 ± 27.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.005 10% +1914% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $2,631 180-199 $0.065 22% +232% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $3,309
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,965 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6% Sobre-dispersion: 7.14x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.6 ± 32.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 25 · proyeccion 119.8 ± 26.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 16% +3036% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $178 100-119 $0.046 28% +497% 6.1% cautela (no operable) $139 60-79 $0.026 5% +94% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $115 120-139 $0.160 28% +75% 3.6% moderado $180
lleva 127 · proyeccion 161.2 ± 15.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.155 37% +141% 6.5% moderado $1,719 120-139 $0.060 8% +31% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $808 160-179 $0.385 42% +10% 1.5% escalable $169
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,964 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.8 ± 29.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.130 24% +88% 3.3% moderado $0 100-119 $0.200 26% +30% 1.9% escalable $75 140-159 $0.125 15% +18% 0.6% moderado $0
lleva 14 · proyeccion 87.1 ± 23.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.075 22% +187% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $464 40-59 $0.059 10% +64% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $243 20-39 $0.011 2% +56% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $145
lleva 97 · proyeccion 128.8 ± 15.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 3% +490% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,043 100-119 $0.160 24% +52% 2.5% moderado $1,196 140-159 $0.196 22% +12% 0.7% moderado $723
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 899 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 50.3 ± 11.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 21% +3429% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $67 40-59 $0.175 60% +243% 12.9% moderado $93 80-99 $0.005 1% +25% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $67
lleva 4 · proyeccion 33.4 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.011 6% +445% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $351 40-59 $0.095 25% +162% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $500
lleva 24 · proyeccion 35.2 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.075 22% +197% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $1,894
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 524 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.0 ± 12.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.120 21% +77% 2.6% moderado $60 60-79 $0.006 1% +32% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $60
lleva 14 · proyeccion 33.2 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.020 8% +316% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $154 20-39 $0.290 66% +126% 12.8% escalable $154
lleva 34 · proyeccion 41.3 ± 6.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.315 38% +22% 2.5% escalable $4,320
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.6 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.040 8% +109% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $0 5-9 $0.165 19% +15% 0.8% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.050 24% +389% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $677 20-24 $0.006 2% +306% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $251 15-19 $0.020 8% +293% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $225 10-14 $0.081 17% +109% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $361
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 4.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 4% +670% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,485 5-9 $0.044 23% +417% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $1,016
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).