Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.100 35% +248% 6.9% moderado $1,496 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.205 52% +152% 9.8% escalable $602 Donald Trump 200+ $0.185 43% +131% 7.4% moderado $421 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.160 28% +76% 3.6% moderado $35 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.145 24% +66% 2.8% moderado $635 The White House 200+ $0.355 57% +60% 8.2% escalable $0 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.190 25% +32% 1.9% moderado $1,184 Ali Khamenei 15-19 $0.114 15% +30% 1.0% moderado $20 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.119 16% +30% 1.0% moderado $1,168 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.315 39% +25% 2.9% escalable $4,934 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.150 18% +20% 0.9% moderado $528 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.235 28% +20% 1.5% escalable $1,025
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,259 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 248 · proyeccion 1046.7 ± 143.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.065 63% +868% 15.1% cautela (no operable) $4,775 960-999 $0.020 10% +398% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,322 920-959 $0.040 8% +113% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,663 880-919 $0.060 7% +10% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,814
lleva 0 · proyeccion 390.8 ± 100.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 14% +9146% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $977 420-439 $0.002 7% +4827% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,253 440-459 $0.002 7% +4372% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,568 380-399 $0.003 8% +3084% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $790 400-419 $0.003 8% +3030% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $790 360-379 $0.005 8% +1315% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $792 340-359 $0.005 7% +1230% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,310 320-339 $0.011 7% +529% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $772 300-319 $0.015 6% +295% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,849 280-299 $0.021 5% +122% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $4,358
lleva 10 · proyeccion 274.3 ± 82.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.003 5% +1886% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $3,242 340-359 $0.004 6% +1723% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $7,174 320-339 $0.004 8% +1618% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $6,352 300-319 $0.008 9% +1004% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $10,861 440-459 $0.002 1% +575% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $14,032 280-299 $0.017 10% +476% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $10,641 80-99 $0.002 1% +424% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $24,211 260-279 $0.032 10% +207% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,024 60-79 $0.002 0% +196% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $19,619 240-259 $0.065 9% +42% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $4,163
lleva 0 · proyeccion 154.2 ± 62.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 16% +10406% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $611 165-189 $0.002 15% +9749% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $611 190-214 $0.002 12% +7798% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $88 240+ $0.002 9% +5714% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $946 215-239 $0.002 8% +5317% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $859 115-139 $0.009 14% +1592% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $776 90-114 $0.037 11% +199% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $180
lleva 96 · proyeccion 208.9 ± 53.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.003 8% +3047% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $53,046 240-259 $0.006 11% +1612% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $50,060 220-239 $0.024 14% +484% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $37,418 100-119 $0.005 3% +445% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $115,078 200-219 $0.085 15% +74% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $36,771
lleva 21 · proyeccion 49.2 ± 26.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.002 6% +3837% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $47,339 65-89 $0.021 22% +961% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $55,601
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,413 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.7x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 207.8 ± 49.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.355 57% +60% 8.2% escalable $0 140-159 $0.075 8% +8% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 24 · proyeccion 156.1 ± 39.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.011 20% +1623% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $1,078 160-179 $0.043 19% +341% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $1,308
lleva 121 · proyeccion 184.2 ± 27.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 4% +1975% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,369 140-159 $0.010 13% +1219% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $2,721 160-179 $0.040 25% +524% 5.5% cautela (no operable) $3,631
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,132 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 189.9 ± 52.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.185 43% +131% 7.4% moderado $421 60-79 $0.006 1% +85% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $80 180-199 $0.140 15% +8% 0.3% moderado $176
lleva 3 · proyeccion 134.2 ± 43.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.004 3% +608% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,306 20-39 $0.002 1% +607% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,024 60-79 $0.011 6% +434% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $478 80-99 $0.047 11% +130% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,253 100-119 $0.119 16% +30% 1.0% moderado $1,168 120-139 $0.150 18% +20% 0.9% moderado $528
lleva 97 · proyeccion 147.8 ± 27.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 3% +1993% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $2,986 100-119 $0.025 11% +343% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $2,329 120-139 $0.205 23% +13% 0.8% escalable $2,518
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,524 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 160.8 ± 29.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 12 · proyeccion 116.6 ± 24.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.095 18% +86% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $244 120-139 $0.160 28% +76% 3.6% moderado $35 40-59 $0.005 1% +62% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $418
lleva 80 · proyeccion 129.3 ± 16.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.145 24% +66% 2.8% moderado $635 120-139 $0.395 46% +15% 2.5% escalable $943
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,669 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.9 ± 18.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.060 33% +449% 7.2% cautela (no operable) $0 100-119 $0.090 38% +317% 7.8% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.045 10% +132% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 5 · proyeccion 81.3 ± 15.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.050 7% +47% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $20 100-119 $0.090 11% +24% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $146
lleva 37 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 10.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.190 25% +32% 1.9% moderado $1,184
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 55.5 ± 12.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 3% +1874% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $619 60-79 $0.100 35% +248% 6.9% moderado $1,496 40-59 $0.480 52% +8% 1.8% escalable $2,015
lleva 0 · proyeccion 37.1 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.315 39% +25% 2.9% escalable $4,934
lleva 19 · proyeccion 34.5 ± 6.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +186% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,890 40-59 $0.215 23% +6% 0.4% escalable $4,975
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 33.9 ± 13.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.015 31% +1969% 7.5% cautela (no operable) $155 60-79 $0.005 3% +427% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $101 20-39 $0.205 52% +152% 9.8% escalable $602
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.2 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 6% +785% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $609 20-39 $0.090 54% +501% 12.4% cautela (no operable) $1,405
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.3 ± 7.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.011 15% +1165% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $1,012
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.114 15% +30% 1.0% moderado $20 10-14 $0.145 17% +19% 0.8% moderado $84
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.085 18% +117% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $272 30-34 $0.005 1% +31% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $253
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.071 15% +108% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $575 15-19 $0.029 4% +50% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $381 5-9 $0.235 28% +20% 1.5% escalable $1,025
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).