Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.110 36% +227% 7.0% moderado $1,396 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.255 53% +109% 9.3% escalable $2,365 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.255 47% +84% 7.2% escalable $4,069 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.105 19% +77% 2.3% moderado $1,207 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.150 23% +52% 2.3% moderado $2,051 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.390 58% +48% 7.6% escalable $2,716 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.185 26% +42% 2.4% moderado $682 Ted Cruz 180-199 $0.260 31% +19% 1.6% escalable $2,256 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.585 67% +15% 5.3% escalable $3,260 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 20-39 $0.595 64% +8% 3.0% escalable $6,640
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,401 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 386 · proyeccion 943.0 ± 119.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.031 32% +926% 7.4% cautela (no operable) $7,149 960-999 $0.019 13% +551% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $10,831 920-959 $0.049 13% +171% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $5,464 880-919 $0.065 12% +92% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $5,175
lleva 49 · proyeccion 202.2 ± 62.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 7% +4673% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $49,797 240-259 $0.003 10% +3724% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $31,897 220-239 $0.011 12% +999% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $20,703 60-79 $0.002 1% +814% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $63,468 200-219 $0.045 13% +180% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $20,683 80-99 $0.013 3% +89% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $102,639 180-199 $0.095 12% +31% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $43,852
lleva 148 · proyeccion 175.3 ± 26.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200-219 $0.007 13% +1674% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $146,846 180-199 $0.095 26% +170% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $154,202
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,565 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.37x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 152.2 ± 32.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.011 24% +2226% 5.9% cautela (no operable) $1,304
lleva 168 · proyeccion 181.7 ± 12.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.070 39% +462% 8.7% cautela (no operable) $13,545 200+ $0.050 8% +52% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $9,119
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 141.3 ± 33.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 7% +1744% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,693 100-119 $0.015 15% +910% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,002 60-79 $0.004 3% +535% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $5,213 120-139 $0.063 22% +250% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $870 140-159 $0.150 23% +52% 2.3% moderado $2,051
lleva 141 · proyeccion 160.7 ± 16.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.004 40% +8749% 9.9% cautela (no operable) $10,982
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,678 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 69 · proyeccion 136.5 ± 20.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.044 17% +277% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $1,161 120-139 $0.110 36% +227% 7.0% moderado $1,396
lleva 166 · proyeccion 175.7 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.260 31% +19% 1.6% escalable $2,256 160-179 $0.585 67% +15% 5.3% escalable $3,260
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,716 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.22x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 20 · proyeccion 68.6 ± 12.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.105 19% +77% 2.3% moderado $1,207
lleva 52 · proyeccion 60.5 ± 5.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.390 58% +48% 7.6% escalable $2,716
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 844 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 36.2 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 2% +299% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,824 20-39 $0.595 64% +8% 3.0% escalable $6,640
lleva 30 · proyeccion 33.9 ± 3.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.025 5% +85% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $10,038
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 464 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 6 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 8.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 2% +212% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $473 20-39 $0.255 53% +109% 9.3% escalable $2,365
lleva 16 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 4.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.255 47% +84% 7.2% escalable $4,069
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.1 ± 6.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 5% +925% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.035 15% +329% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.004 1% +161% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.185 26% +42% 2.4% moderado $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 1.8 ± 3.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.015 19% +1164% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $2,843 10-14 $0.005 1% +24% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,322
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).