Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.165 76% +360% 17.8% moderado $3,568 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.155 41% +162% 7.4% moderado $24 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.115 25% +121% 3.9% moderado $27,238 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.215 46% +116% 8.0% escalable $777 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.130 24% +82% 3.1% moderado $4,106 Donald Trump 200+ $0.235 43% +81% 6.2% escalable $1,010 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.265 46% +73% 6.6% escalable $2,496 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.330 57% +71% 8.8% escalable $709 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.145 22% +50% 2.1% moderado $331 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.145 21% +46% 1.9% moderado $2,316 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.320 44% +37% 4.3% escalable $2,211 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.430 58% +36% 6.8% escalable $1,330
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,209 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 197 · proyeccion 1106.9 ± 152.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.165 76% +360% 17.8% moderado $3,568
lleva 0 · proyeccion 373.1 ± 97.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 10% +6418% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $17,711 420-439 $0.002 7% +4505% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $3,969 440-459 $0.002 6% +3908% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $9,684 400-419 $0.004 8% +2074% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,829 380-399 $0.004 8% +1687% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $755 360-379 $0.009 8% +758% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $839 340-359 $0.011 8% +620% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $865 320-339 $0.012 7% +515% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,168 300-319 $0.018 7% +267% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $537 280-299 $0.026 6% +118% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $3,414
lleva 45 · proyeccion 265.3 ± 75.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.003 6% +2168% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $31,041 360-379 $0.002 4% +1933% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $30,743 320-339 $0.004 7% +1538% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $30,812 380-399 $0.002 3% +1259% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $33,459 300-319 $0.007 9% +1090% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $21,391 280-299 $0.015 10% +594% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $20,360 260-279 $0.036 11% +190% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $10,892 100-119 $0.004 1% +176% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $55,341 240-259 $0.075 10% +38% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $7,364 120-139 $0.017 2% +26% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $34,021
lleva 0 · proyeccion 135.6 ± 58.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 13% +6491% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $617 140-164 $0.003 16% +6374% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $602 190-214 $0.002 9% +4394% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $149 240+ $0.002 4% +2488% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $378 215-239 $0.002 5% +2466% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $146 115-139 $0.011 17% +1484% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $100 90-114 $0.045 14% +218% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $261
lleva 129 · proyeccion 222.8 ± 49.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 3% +2195% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $75,864 280-299 $0.004 6% +1750% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $72,077 260-279 $0.009 10% +987% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $70,459 320-339 $0.002 2% +935% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $56,707 240-259 $0.032 14% +344% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $62,705 140-159 $0.019 5% +175% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $98,336 220-239 $0.075 16% +114% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $65,779
lleva 13 · proyeccion 68.6 ± 37.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.004 8% +2229% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $23,431 90-114 $0.020 18% +789% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $29,533 65-89 $0.115 25% +121% 3.9% moderado $27,238
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,338 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 184.8 ± 47.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 9% +1450% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $102 100-119 $0.005 5% +766% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $92 80-99 $0.005 2% +304% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $129 140-159 $0.036 13% +255% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $248 60-79 $0.005 1% +58% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $159 160-179 $0.150 16% +7% 0.3% moderado $419
lleva 33 · proyeccion 149.5 ± 37.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 18% +5146% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $374 100-119 $0.004 12% +3342% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $439 140-159 $0.021 21% +906% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $774
lleva 118 · proyeccion 158.9 ± 22.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 15% +4256% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $1,766 140-159 $0.056 32% +472% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $4,842
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,083 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 189.8 ± 52.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.235 43% +81% 6.2% escalable $1,010 180-199 $0.125 15% +21% 0.8% moderado $478 160-179 $0.125 14% +13% 0.5% moderado $474
lleva 47 · proyeccion 156.3 ± 39.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.002 2% +858% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $681 40-59 $0.002 1% +283% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $633 100-119 $0.030 10% +236% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,218 80-99 $0.025 5% +95% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $663 140-159 $0.155 20% +26% 1.2% moderado $936 160-179 $0.155 19% +22% 1.0% moderado $1,292 180-199 $0.130 14% +9% 0.3% moderado $1,234
lleva 141 · proyeccion 191.4 ± 27.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.040 9% +128% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $2,807 160-179 $0.145 21% +46% 1.9% moderado $2,316
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,484 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 142.6 ± 28.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.095 27% +184% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $0 120-139 $0.200 25% +25% 1.6% escalable $0 160-179 $0.165 18% +9% 0.4% moderado $0
lleva 33 · proyeccion 120.4 ± 22.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.076 14% +84% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $376 60-79 $0.022 3% +28% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $97
lleva 127 · proyeccion 158.3 ± 13.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 8% +554% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $886 140-159 $0.265 46% +73% 6.6% escalable $2,496
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,650 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.4 ± 18.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.070 28% +302% 5.6% cautela (no operable) $20 140-159 $0.018 7% +260% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $12 100-119 $0.155 41% +162% 7.4% moderado $24
lleva 18 · proyeccion 88.9 ± 14.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.145 22% +50% 2.1% moderado $331
lleva 48 · proyeccion 78.3 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.320 44% +37% 4.3% escalable $2,211 40-59 $0.024 3% +7% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $654
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 804 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.0 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.073 23% +219% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $733 40-59 $0.430 58% +36% 6.8% escalable $1,330
lleva 9 · proyeccion 38.3 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.009 2% +146% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,369 40-59 $0.360 44% +22% 3.1% escalable $3,290
lleva 24 · proyeccion 34.9 ± 5.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.685 79% +15% 8.1% escalable $4,665
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.2 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.022 22% +886% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.330 57% +71% 8.8% escalable $709
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 2% +320% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $217 20-39 $0.215 46% +116% 8.0% escalable $777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.5 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.035 18% +393% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $2,924
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.005 2% +317% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $12 15-19 $0.060 14% +136% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $0 20-24 $0.048 9% +98% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $10 10-14 $0.150 17% +16% 0.7% moderado $0 25-29 $0.046 5% +12% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.038 17% +349% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $229 15-19 $0.032 9% +186% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $113 20-24 $0.015 3% +128% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $112
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.014 6% +307% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,398 5-9 $0.130 24% +82% 3.1% moderado $4,106
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.