CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-16 02:46 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.10528%+171%5.0%moderado$2,503
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.21047%+126%8.4%escalable$1,075
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.20037%+86%5.4%escalable$1,588
Ted Cruz160-179$0.28551%+80%8.0%escalable$1,224
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.30551%+69%7.5%escalable$2,252
Ted Cruz120-139$0.24533%+34%2.7%escalable$626
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.34044%+29%3.8%escalable$4,155
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.38048%+26%4.0%escalable$3,368
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.20525%+22%1.4%escalable$584
Donald Trump160-179$0.16520%+20%1.0%moderado$1,645
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 366 · proyeccion 993.1 ± 126.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06048%+700%11.2%cautela (no operable)$6,628
960-999$0.02512%+389%2.5%cautela (no operable)$9,620
920-959$0.05111%+123%1.7%cautela (no operable)$4,695
lleva 29 · proyeccion 250.0 ± 75.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0028%+3776%1.9%cautela (no operable)$42,631
320-339$0.0036%+2329%1.5%cautela (no operable)$52,000
340-359$0.0024%+2118%1.1%cautela (no operable)$38,231
280-299$0.0049%+1950%2.2%cautela (no operable)$29,425
260-279$0.01110%+790%2.3%cautela (no operable)$11,338
240-259$0.03211%+230%1.9%cautela (no operable)$8,011
80-99$0.0041%+214%0.2%cautela (no operable)$57,563
220-239$0.07510%+36%0.7%cautela (no operable)$7,274
100-119$0.0162%+17%0.1%cautela (no operable)$69,420
lleva 128 · proyeccion 223.2 ± 49.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0027%+4291%1.6%cautela (no operable)$76,943
300-319$0.0024%+2266%0.8%cautela (no operable)$72,128
260-279$0.00410%+2210%2.5%cautela (no operable)$71,397
240-259$0.01614%+772%3.1%cautela (no operable)$78,011
140-159$0.0195%+174%0.9%cautela (no operable)$145,769
220-239$0.07016%+126%2.4%cautela (no operable)$54,362
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 35 · proyeccion 154.2 ± 36.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00517%+3029%4.2%cautela (no operable)$563
80-99$0.0035%+1799%1.1%cautela (no operable)$750
100-119$0.00510%+1798%2.5%cautela (no operable)$601
140-159$0.01321%+1535%5.0%cautela (no operable)$666
160-179$0.02920%+567%4.3%cautela (no operable)$976
60-79$0.0032%+547%0.3%cautela (no operable)$784
lleva 141 · proyeccion 183.6 ± 22.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01729%+1604%6.9%cautela (no operable)$5,512
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 173.2 ± 39.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.07511%+46%0.9%cautela (no operable)$704
100-119$0.0406%+43%0.4%cautela (no operable)$748
160-179$0.16520%+20%1.0%moderado$1,645
lleva 141 · proyeccion 192.7 ± 27.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0069%+1217%2.0%cautela (no operable)$3,329
160-179$0.06020%+238%3.8%cautela (no operable)$4,858
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 43 · proyeccion 133.6 ± 23.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.24533%+34%2.7%escalable$626
lleva 140 · proyeccion 172.7 ± 14.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.05016%+227%3.0%cautela (no operable)$2,066
160-179$0.28551%+80%8.0%escalable$1,224
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 15 · proyeccion 84.7 ± 15.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.01115%+1342%3.6%cautela (no operable)$562
120-139$0.0041%+148%0.1%cautela (no operable)$322
80-99$0.21047%+126%8.4%escalable$1,075
lleva 47 · proyeccion 76.6 ± 9.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0031%+210%0.2%cautela (no operable)$276
40-59$0.0174%+141%0.6%cautela (no operable)$1,224
80-99$0.20037%+86%5.4%escalable$1,588
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 9 · proyeccion 38.3 ± 9.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0112%+79%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,436
40-59$0.34044%+29%3.8%escalable$4,155
lleva 25 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 5.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 9.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0093%+199%0.5%cautela (no operable)$463
20-39$0.30551%+69%7.5%escalable$2,252
lleva 12 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 6.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.38048%+26%4.0%escalable$3,368
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0058%+1313%1.8%cautela (no operable)$280
20-24$0.0052%+318%0.4%cautela (no operable)$180
10-14$0.08017%+115%2.5%cautela (no operable)$372
5-9$0.20525%+22%1.4%escalable$584
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0066%+900%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,152
5-9$0.10528%+171%5.0%moderado$2,503
15-19$0.0020%+142%0.1%cautela (no operable)$972