CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-11 17:04 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.11541%+257%8.3%moderado$1,053
Volodymyr Zelenskyy120-139$0.11036%+227%7.0%moderado$0
Donald Trump200+$0.18548%+159%9.0%moderado$415
The White House160-179$0.11526%+129%4.2%moderado$3,178
Ted Cruz80-99$0.10022%+123%3.4%moderado$216
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.25551%+100%8.6%escalable$430
The White House200+$0.35064%+84%11.3%escalable$0
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.33548%+43%5.4%escalable$4,415
Elon Musk200-219$0.10514%+34%1.0%moderado$33,881
Donald Trump120-139$0.15020%+33%1.5%moderado$2,409
Ted Cruz100-119$0.25033%+32%2.6%escalable$483
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.13517%+28%1.1%moderado$71
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 238 · proyeccion 1048.4 ± 144.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.07063%+804%15.1%cautela (no operable)$4,775
960-999$0.02110%+381%2.0%cautela (no operable)$4,210
920-959$0.0428%+98%1.1%cautela (no operable)$2,663
880-919$0.0606%+8%0.1%cautela (no operable)$2,764
lleva 0 · proyeccion 402.1 ± 101.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00217%+11132%4.2%cautela (no operable)$857
420-439$0.0028%+4949%1.9%cautela (no operable)$805
440-459$0.0027%+4596%1.7%cautela (no operable)$800
400-419$0.0038%+3034%1.9%cautela (no operable)$733
380-399$0.0038%+3018%1.9%cautela (no operable)$733
360-379$0.0057%+1256%1.7%cautela (no operable)$772
340-359$0.0097%+708%1.5%cautela (no operable)$965
320-339$0.0116%+479%1.3%cautela (no operable)$752
300-319$0.0175%+205%0.9%cautela (no operable)$1,849
280-299$0.0244%+81%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,308
lleva 0 · proyeccion 275.6 ± 84.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0025%+2443%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,713
380-399$0.0024%+2428%0.9%cautela (no operable)$5,205
340-359$0.0046%+1332%1.5%cautela (no operable)$5,554
320-339$0.0098%+713%1.7%cautela (no operable)$3,422
300-319$0.0159%+464%1.8%cautela (no operable)$6,652
280-299$0.0219%+356%1.9%cautela (no operable)$9,864
440-459$0.0031%+273%0.2%cautela (no operable)$13,932
500+$0.0020%+155%0.1%cautela (no operable)$25,774
260-279$0.0429%+128%1.4%cautela (no operable)$3,367
240-259$0.0659%+39%0.7%cautela (no operable)$3,505
80-99$0.0071%+18%0.0%cautela (no operable)$19,600
lleva 0 · proyeccion 165.1 ± 65.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00215%+9902%3.7%cautela (no operable)$591
140-164$0.00215%+9868%3.7%cautela (no operable)$591
190-214$0.00213%+8571%3.2%cautela (no operable)$68
240+$0.00213%+8304%3.1%cautela (no operable)$926
215-239$0.00210%+6395%2.4%cautela (no operable)$839
115-139$0.00913%+1330%3.0%cautela (no operable)$776
90-114$0.03910%+146%1.5%cautela (no operable)$180
lleva 86 · proyeccion 209.8 ± 56.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0025%+3384%1.3%cautela (no operable)$56,200
260-279$0.0058%+1516%1.9%cautela (no operable)$46,515
240-259$0.01011%+1002%2.5%cautela (no operable)$42,028
220-239$0.03413%+290%2.6%cautela (no operable)$33,493
100-119$0.0093%+208%0.5%cautela (no operable)$92,276
200-219$0.10514%+34%1.0%moderado$33,881
lleva 11 · proyeccion 50.1 ± 31.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.0039%+3318%2.1%cautela (no operable)$21,593
65-89$0.04522%+379%4.5%cautela (no operable)$36,709
40-64$0.27531%+12%1.1%escalable$19,821
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.8x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 218.3 ± 50.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.35064%+84%11.3%escalable$0
lleva 2 · proyeccion 144.7 ± 41.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.00213%+6614%3.3%cautela (no operable)$611
80-99$0.0028%+3867%1.9%cautela (no operable)$634
60-79$0.0024%+1757%0.9%cautela (no operable)$660
140-159$0.02919%+571%4.2%cautela (no operable)$896
20-39$0.0020%+170%0.1%cautela (no operable)$205
160-179$0.15016%+7%0.3%moderado$1,119
lleva 99 · proyeccion 172.9 ± 29.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0039%+3655%2.3%cautela (no operable)$1,278
140-159$0.01520%+1208%4.6%cautela (no operable)$2,081
160-179$0.11526%+129%4.2%moderado$3,178
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 196.8 ± 53.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.18548%+159%9.0%moderado$415
60-79$0.0061%+48%0.1%cautela (no operable)$80
180-199$0.13515%+9%0.4%moderado$78
lleva 1 · proyeccion 138.9 ± 44.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0021%+512%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,024
80-99$0.02310%+322%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,203
40-59$0.0062%+278%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,291
<20$0.0020%+88%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,083
100-119$0.10014%+44%1.2%cautela (no operable)$1,147
60-79$0.0385%+40%0.4%cautela (no operable)$462
120-139$0.14517%+20%0.8%moderado$503
lleva 95 · proyeccion 152.5 ± 28.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0023%+1714%0.6%cautela (no operable)$2,886
100-119$0.0449%+109%1.3%cautela (no operable)$2,309
120-139$0.15020%+33%1.5%moderado$2,409
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 166.7 ± 30.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 110.6 ± 24.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0052%+249%0.3%cautela (no operable)$390
80-99$0.10022%+123%3.4%moderado$216
lleva 68 · proyeccion 123.1 ± 17.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0458%+80%0.9%cautela (no operable)$451
100-119$0.25033%+32%2.6%escalable$483
120-139$0.34041%+20%2.6%escalable$791
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 120.6 ± 19.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.06534%+425%7.4%cautela (no operable)$0
120-139$0.11036%+227%7.0%moderado$0
140-159$0.06514%+117%2.0%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 2 · proyeccion 82.0 ± 15.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.10512%+18%0.5%moderado$79
lleva 34 · proyeccion 73.0 ± 10.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.24027%+12%0.9%escalable$1,038
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 58.2 ± 13.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0025%+3288%1.2%cautela (no operable)$619
60-79$0.11541%+257%8.3%moderado$1,053
lleva 0 · proyeccion 39.8 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.33548%+43%5.4%escalable$4,415
<20$0.0263%+11%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,731
lleva 19 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 7.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+68%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,660
20-39$0.56062%+10%3.1%escalable$5,909
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 34.3 ± 13.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00532%+5700%7.9%cautela (no operable)$82
60-79$0.0053%+476%0.7%cautela (no operable)$93
20-39$0.25551%+100%8.6%escalable$430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.6 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.48555%+13%3.0%escalable$1,321
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.7 ± 7.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.03016%+438%3.4%cautela (no operable)$995
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.5 ± 11.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.13517%+28%1.1%moderado$71
20-24$0.08510%+23%0.5%cautela (no operable)$30
15-19$0.12315%+20%0.7%moderado$20
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.2 ± 9.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0051%+27%0.0%cautela (no operable)$190
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 6.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.06815%+124%2.3%cautela (no operable)$555
15-19$0.0295%+61%0.5%cautela (no operable)$381
5-9$0.24028%+17%1.3%escalable$1,025