CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-11 22:53 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.10035%+248%6.9%moderado$1,496
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.20552%+152%9.8%escalable$602
Donald Trump200+$0.18543%+131%7.4%moderado$421
Ted Cruz120-139$0.16028%+76%3.6%moderado$35
Ted Cruz100-119$0.14524%+66%2.8%moderado$635
The White House200+$0.35557%+60%8.2%escalable$0
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.19025%+32%1.9%moderado$1,184
Ali Khamenei15-19$0.11415%+30%1.0%moderado$20
Donald Trump100-119$0.11916%+30%1.0%moderado$1,168
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.31539%+25%2.9%escalable$4,934
Donald Trump120-139$0.15018%+20%0.9%moderado$528
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.23528%+20%1.5%escalable$1,025
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 248 · proyeccion 1046.7 ± 143.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06563%+868%15.1%cautela (no operable)$4,775
960-999$0.02010%+398%2.0%cautela (no operable)$4,322
920-959$0.0408%+113%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,663
880-919$0.0607%+10%0.1%cautela (no operable)$2,814
lleva 0 · proyeccion 390.8 ± 100.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00214%+9146%3.4%cautela (no operable)$977
420-439$0.0027%+4827%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,253
440-459$0.0027%+4372%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,568
380-399$0.0038%+3084%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
400-419$0.0038%+3030%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
360-379$0.0058%+1315%1.8%cautela (no operable)$792
340-359$0.0057%+1230%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,310
320-339$0.0117%+529%1.4%cautela (no operable)$772
300-319$0.0156%+295%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,849
280-299$0.0215%+122%0.7%cautela (no operable)$4,358
lleva 10 · proyeccion 274.3 ± 82.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0035%+1886%1.2%cautela (no operable)$3,242
340-359$0.0046%+1723%1.5%cautela (no operable)$7,174
320-339$0.0048%+1618%1.8%cautela (no operable)$6,352
300-319$0.0089%+1004%2.0%cautela (no operable)$10,861
440-459$0.0021%+575%0.2%cautela (no operable)$14,032
280-299$0.01710%+476%2.0%cautela (no operable)$10,641
80-99$0.0021%+424%0.2%cautela (no operable)$24,211
260-279$0.03210%+207%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,024
60-79$0.0020%+196%0.1%cautela (no operable)$19,619
240-259$0.0659%+42%0.7%cautela (no operable)$4,163
lleva 0 · proyeccion 154.2 ± 62.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+10406%3.9%cautela (no operable)$611
165-189$0.00215%+9749%3.7%cautela (no operable)$611
190-214$0.00212%+7798%2.9%cautela (no operable)$88
240+$0.0029%+5714%2.1%cautela (no operable)$946
215-239$0.0028%+5317%2.0%cautela (no operable)$859
115-139$0.00914%+1592%3.4%cautela (no operable)$776
90-114$0.03711%+199%1.9%cautela (no operable)$180
lleva 96 · proyeccion 208.9 ± 53.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0038%+3047%1.9%cautela (no operable)$53,046
240-259$0.00611%+1612%2.6%cautela (no operable)$50,060
220-239$0.02414%+484%2.9%cautela (no operable)$37,418
100-119$0.0053%+445%0.6%cautela (no operable)$115,078
200-219$0.08515%+74%1.7%cautela (no operable)$36,771
lleva 21 · proyeccion 49.2 ± 26.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.0026%+3837%1.4%cautela (no operable)$47,339
65-89$0.02122%+961%5.0%cautela (no operable)$55,601
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.7x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 207.8 ± 49.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.35557%+60%8.2%escalable$0
140-159$0.0758%+8%0.1%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 24 · proyeccion 156.1 ± 39.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.01120%+1623%4.7%cautela (no operable)$1,078
160-179$0.04319%+341%3.8%cautela (no operable)$1,308
lleva 121 · proyeccion 184.2 ± 27.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0024%+1975%1.0%cautela (no operable)$1,369
140-159$0.01013%+1219%3.1%cautela (no operable)$2,721
160-179$0.04025%+524%5.5%cautela (no operable)$3,631
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 189.9 ± 52.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.18543%+131%7.4%moderado$421
60-79$0.0061%+85%0.1%cautela (no operable)$80
180-199$0.14015%+8%0.3%moderado$176
lleva 3 · proyeccion 134.2 ± 43.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0043%+608%0.6%cautela (no operable)$1,306
20-39$0.0021%+607%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,024
60-79$0.0116%+434%1.3%cautela (no operable)$478
80-99$0.04711%+130%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,253
100-119$0.11916%+30%1.0%moderado$1,168
120-139$0.15018%+20%0.9%moderado$528
lleva 97 · proyeccion 147.8 ± 27.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0023%+1993%0.8%cautela (no operable)$2,986
100-119$0.02511%+343%2.2%cautela (no operable)$2,329
120-139$0.20523%+13%0.8%escalable$2,518
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 160.8 ± 29.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 12 · proyeccion 116.6 ± 24.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.09518%+86%2.3%cautela (no operable)$244
120-139$0.16028%+76%3.6%moderado$35
40-59$0.0051%+62%0.1%cautela (no operable)$418
lleva 80 · proyeccion 129.3 ± 16.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.14524%+66%2.8%moderado$635
120-139$0.39546%+15%2.5%escalable$943
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.9 ± 18.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.06033%+449%7.2%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.09038%+317%7.8%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.04510%+132%1.6%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 5 · proyeccion 81.3 ± 15.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0507%+47%0.6%cautela (no operable)$20
100-119$0.09011%+24%0.6%cautela (no operable)$146
lleva 37 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 10.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.19025%+32%1.9%moderado$1,184
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 55.5 ± 12.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0023%+1874%0.7%cautela (no operable)$619
60-79$0.10035%+248%6.9%moderado$1,496
40-59$0.48052%+8%1.8%escalable$2,015
lleva 0 · proyeccion 37.1 ± 10.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.31539%+25%2.9%escalable$4,934
lleva 19 · proyeccion 34.5 ± 6.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+186%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,890
40-59$0.21523%+6%0.4%escalable$4,975
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 33.9 ± 13.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01531%+1969%7.5%cautela (no operable)$155
60-79$0.0053%+427%0.6%cautela (no operable)$101
20-39$0.20552%+152%9.8%escalable$602
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.2 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0066%+785%1.3%cautela (no operable)$609
20-39$0.09054%+501%12.4%cautela (no operable)$1,405
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.3 ± 7.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01115%+1165%3.4%cautela (no operable)$1,012
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.11415%+30%1.0%moderado$20
10-14$0.14517%+19%0.8%moderado$84
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.08518%+117%2.7%cautela (no operable)$272
30-34$0.0051%+31%0.0%cautela (no operable)$253
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.07115%+108%2.1%cautela (no operable)$575
15-19$0.0294%+50%0.4%cautela (no operable)$381
5-9$0.23528%+20%1.5%escalable$1,025