Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.205 55% +170% 11.0% escalable $2,173 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.230 57% +149% 11.1% escalable $968 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.120 22% +81% 2.8% moderado $6,604 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.170 29% +70% 3.6% moderado $1,100 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.105 18% +70% 2.0% moderado $325 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.111 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $95,463 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.270 42% +56% 5.2% escalable $5,058 Donald Trump 200+ $0.175 27% +53% 2.8% moderado $575 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.240 36% +49% 3.9% escalable $89 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.205 30% +48% 3.1% escalable $2,305 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.195 26% +35% 2.1% moderado $3,837 The White House 180-199 $0.280 37% +31% 3.0% escalable $8,810
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,294 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 280 · proyeccion 1038.7 ± 139.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.050 61% +1121% 14.8% cautela (no operable) $5,141 960-999 $0.029 10% +254% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $8,278 920-959 $0.053 9% +66% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $3,796
lleva 0 · proyeccion 351.0 ± 94.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 7% +4531% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $2,514 420-439 $0.002 6% +3879% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,678 500+ $0.002 6% +3816% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $17,204 360-379 $0.004 8% +2254% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,940 380-399 $0.004 8% +1833% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,210 320-339 $0.007 8% +1069% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,765 340-359 $0.008 8% +949% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,792 300-319 $0.012 8% +536% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $3,122 280-299 $0.023 7% +196% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,961 260-279 $0.055 6% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,420
lleva 42 · proyeccion 266.7 ± 75.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 6% +2798% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $13,393 320-339 $0.004 7% +2030% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $12,810 360-379 $0.002 4% +2004% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $16,889 300-319 $0.009 9% +952% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $21,289 280-299 $0.017 10% +490% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $18,810 260-279 $0.034 10% +213% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $11,776 100-119 $0.006 1% +91% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $43,001 240-259 $0.085 10% +20% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $7,456 120-139 $0.019 2% +9% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $33,195
lleva 0 · proyeccion 114.6 ± 54.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 10% +6235% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $5,002 140-164 $0.003 14% +5671% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $9,728 115-139 $0.009 18% +1991% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $6,422 90-114 $0.046 18% +286% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $14,049
lleva 128 · proyeccion 201.3 ± 43.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 5% +3499% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $105,435 240-259 $0.004 10% +2106% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $134,331 120-139 $0.004 5% +1256% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $239,768 220-239 $0.029 15% +402% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $95,453 200-219 $0.111 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $95,463
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,454 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.49x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 182.2 ± 45.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 5% +807% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $154 120-139 $0.021 9% +329% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $154 80-99 $0.005 2% +317% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $254 140-159 $0.045 13% +199% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $132 160-179 $0.085 17% +96% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $286 60-79 $0.005 1% +59% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $290
lleva 59 · proyeccion 164.9 ± 34.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.002 21% +13574% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $2,515 160-179 $0.011 22% +2031% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $2,822
lleva 156 · proyeccion 193.0 ± 20.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.016 20% +1173% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $4,993 180-199 $0.280 37% +31% 3.0% escalable $8,810
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,154 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 168.8 ± 49.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +500% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $484 60-79 $0.006 2% +235% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $100 80-99 $0.025 4% +76% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $232 200+ $0.175 27% +53% 2.8% moderado $575 160-179 $0.150 16% +7% 0.3% moderado $515
lleva 48 · proyeccion 158.0 ± 39.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 2% +490% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $758 80-99 $0.011 5% +305% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,439 100-119 $0.051 10% +90% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,352 40-59 $0.004 1% +50% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,443 120-139 $0.130 15% +19% 0.7% moderado $942 140-159 $0.170 19% +14% 0.7% moderado $1,132
lleva 142 · proyeccion 171.7 ± 20.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.095 22% +130% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $2,760 180-199 $0.195 26% +35% 2.1% moderado $3,837
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,561 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 139.4 ± 27.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 50 · proyeccion 132.4 ± 21.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 1% +105% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $793 120-139 $0.240 36% +49% 3.9% escalable $89 80-99 $0.050 5% +9% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $275
lleva 118 · proyeccion 145.2 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.205 30% +48% 3.1% escalable $2,305
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,679 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.4 ± 17.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.015 15% +897% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $266 100-119 $0.074 40% +433% 8.7% cautela (no operable) $442 140-159 $0.005 2% +254% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $291
lleva 17 · proyeccion 78.9 ± 13.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.043 7% +53% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $160 80-99 $0.365 42% +14% 2.0% escalable $604
lleva 49 · proyeccion 70.2 ± 8.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.085 13% +49% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,519
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 818 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 49.2 ± 12.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.060 19% +218% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,845 40-59 $0.470 59% +26% 5.9% escalable $2,145 80-99 $0.005 1% +7% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $702
lleva 7 · proyeccion 37.9 ± 9.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.270 42% +56% 5.2% escalable $5,058
lleva 26 · proyeccion 35.4 ± 5.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.120 22% +81% 2.8% moderado $6,604
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 452 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3% Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.3 ± 12.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 20% +1716% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.230 57% +149% 11.1% escalable $968 60-79 $0.005 1% +48% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $215
lleva 4 · proyeccion 21.7 ± 9.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.205 55% +170% 11.0% escalable $2,173
lleva 4 · proyeccion 11.2 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.013 9% +623% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,020
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.5 ± 10.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.048 14% +203% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.105 18% +70% 2.0% moderado $325 20-24 $0.069 9% +37% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.2 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.005 5% +810% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $278 10-14 $0.034 18% +442% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $316 15-19 $0.025 11% +318% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $269
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.3 ± 5.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.032 10% +224% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $606 5-9 $0.170 29% +70% 3.6% moderado $1,100 15-19 $0.012 2% +35% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $408
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.