Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.160 77% +384% 18.3% moderado $3,469 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.190 49% +157% 9.2% moderado $1,817 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.320 54% +69% 8.1% escalable $0 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.125 20% +62% 2.2% moderado $356 Donald Trump 200+ $0.345 54% +57% 7.5% escalable $0 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.160 24% +52% 2.5% moderado $2,158 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.355 52% +47% 6.5% escalable $754 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.245 36% +46% 3.8% escalable $0 The White House 200+ $0.330 48% +46% 5.7% escalable $0 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.105 14% +29% 0.9% moderado $174 Elon Musk <40 $0.190 24% +27% 1.6% moderado $79,798 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.275 33% +19% 1.8% escalable $195
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,180 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 170 · proyeccion 1116.4 ± 155.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.160 77% +384% 18.3% moderado $3,469
lleva 0 · proyeccion 409.3 ± 102.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.005 19% +3335% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $112 440-459 $0.005 7% +1211% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $12 460-479 $0.005 7% +1092% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $12 480-499 $0.005 6% +942% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $112 360-379 $0.015 7% +382% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $50 340-359 $0.015 7% +353% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $0 320-339 $0.015 6% +297% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $150 300-319 $0.035 5% +38% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $100 400-419 $0.060 8% +30% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $50 380-399 $0.060 8% +27% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $50
lleva 18 · proyeccion 274.4 ± 81.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 4% +2297% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $21,320 360-379 $0.003 5% +1879% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $14,901 340-359 $0.004 6% +1730% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $21,066 400-419 $0.002 2% +1540% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $11,890 320-339 $0.008 8% +876% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $7,184 300-319 $0.017 9% +443% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $10,249 80-99 $0.003 1% +194% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $35,049 280-299 $0.034 10% +184% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $12,034 260-279 $0.055 10% +78% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,398 100-119 $0.007 1% +78% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $33,215
lleva 102 · proyeccion 231.8 ± 57.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 3% +2115% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $36,343 300-319 $0.004 6% +1502% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $48,885 340-359 $0.002 2% +1065% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $35,887 280-299 $0.009 8% +784% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $41,610 120-139 $0.005 3% +425% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $70,867 260-279 $0.024 11% +365% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $50,881 240-259 $0.037 13% +251% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $34,849 220-239 $0.095 14% +45% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $36,943
lleva 0 · proyeccion 91.6 ± 48.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 10% +6250% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $3,305 165-189 $0.002 4% +2868% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $6,774 115-139 $0.010 16% +1470% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $5,189 90-114 $0.040 20% +398% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $3,123
lleva 36 · proyeccion 54.3 ± 21.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.002 5% +3198% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $67,155 65-89 $0.018 27% +1427% 6.4% cautela (no operable) $54,280 <40 $0.190 24% +27% 1.6% moderado $79,798
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,326 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.3 ± 48.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.330 48% +46% 5.7% escalable $0 80-99 $0.011 1% +30% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $17
lleva 21 · proyeccion 150.2 ± 39.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 18% +5752% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $346 100-119 $0.004 12% +3299% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $426 140-159 $0.028 20% +618% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $581 160-179 $0.165 18% +8% 0.4% moderado $658
lleva 106 · proyeccion 159.6 ± 25.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 16% +3394% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $1,029 100-119 $0.002 5% +2291% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $463 140-159 $0.061 29% +364% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $2,710
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,052 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 205.2 ± 54.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.345 54% +57% 7.5% escalable $0
lleva 18 · proyeccion 143.2 ± 42.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 2% +243% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $361 100-119 $0.073 14% +86% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,044 60-79 $0.025 4% +67% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $325 80-99 $0.053 8% +60% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $567 20-39 $0.004 1% +39% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $981
lleva 112 · proyeccion 178.4 ± 31.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 2% +1449% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $4,064 140-159 $0.055 17% +203% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $1,936 120-139 $0.033 8% +134% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,504 160-179 $0.160 24% +52% 2.5% moderado $2,158 180-199 $0.200 24% +19% 1.2% escalable $2,627
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,467 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.3 ± 29.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 16 · proyeccion 113.4 ± 23.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.030 6% +104% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $97 80-99 $0.125 20% +62% 2.2% moderado $356 100-119 $0.275 33% +19% 1.8% escalable $195
lleva 110 · proyeccion 151.3 ± 15.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.026 20% +654% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $549 140-159 $0.190 49% +157% 9.2% moderado $1,817
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,637 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.4 ± 19.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 5 · proyeccion 83.1 ± 15.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.105 14% +29% 0.9% moderado $174
lleva 35 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.215 25% +18% 1.2% escalable $1,733 40-59 $0.100 11% +10% 0.3% moderado $356
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 798 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5% Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 56.0 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.021 3% +58% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $0 60-79 $0.245 36% +46% 3.8% escalable $0
lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.340 40% +19% 2.4% escalable $2,808
lleva 18 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 6.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.3 ± 13.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.320 54% +69% 8.1% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.018 5% +153% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $95 20-39 $0.355 52% +47% 6.5% escalable $754
lleva 6 · proyeccion 15.7 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.265 30% +13% 1.2% escalable $2,562
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.7 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 35-39 $0.011 1% +32% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $12
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.013 6% +350% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $82 10-14 $0.044 18% +304% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $199 15-19 $0.042 12% +179% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $83
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 6.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 3% +467% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,293 10-14 $0.031 12% +300% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $2,109
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.