Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.110 45% +308% 9.5% moderado $738 Elon Musk 180-199 $0.155 38% +144% 6.6% moderado $182,226 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.250 57% +127% 10.6% escalable $1,246 The White House 160-179 $0.120 25% +110% 3.7% moderado $2,927 The White House 200+ $0.350 70% +100% 13.5% escalable $0 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.245 49% +99% 8.0% escalable $430 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.100 18% +79% 2.2% moderado $99 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.110 18% +66% 2.1% moderado $200 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.165 27% +62% 3.1% moderado $467 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.115 19% +62% 2.0% moderado $74 Donald Trump 200+ $0.330 53% +62% 7.6% escalable $311 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.355 53% +49% 6.8% escalable $4,093
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,251 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 236 · proyeccion 1060.5 ± 145.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.075 66% +784% 15.9% cautela (no operable) $4,755 960-999 $0.032 9% +198% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,129 920-959 $0.044 8% +74% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $2,601
lleva 0 · proyeccion 416.2 ± 103.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 21% +13886% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $368 420-439 $0.002 8% +5005% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $326 440-459 $0.002 7% +4787% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $311 400-419 $0.003 8% +2982% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $254 380-399 $0.003 7% +2887% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $254 360-379 $0.005 7% +1167% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $285 340-359 $0.009 6% +638% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $429 320-339 $0.011 5% +417% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $265 300-319 $0.015 5% +202% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,211
lleva 0 · proyeccion 289.7 ± 86.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 5% +3056% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,920 400-419 $0.002 4% +2250% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $10,795 360-379 $0.004 6% +1622% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,428 340-359 $0.004 7% +1516% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,114 320-339 $0.005 8% +1412% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,212 440-459 $0.002 2% +1008% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $11,270 300-319 $0.015 9% +481% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,638 500+ $0.002 1% +393% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $23,479 280-299 $0.025 9% +278% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $8,244 260-279 $0.045 9% +100% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,686 80-99 $0.004 1% +79% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $17,995
lleva 0 · proyeccion 179.2 ± 67.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240+ $0.002 19% +12331% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $903 165-189 $0.002 15% +9661% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $571 190-214 $0.002 14% +9132% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $48 140-164 $0.002 14% +8918% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $571 215-239 $0.002 11% +7531% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $819 115-139 $0.009 11% +1050% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $756 90-114 $0.044 8% +75% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $160
lleva 84 · proyeccion 221.9 ± 59.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.003 7% +2245% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $44,030 260-279 $0.004 10% +2061% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $40,716 240-259 $0.011 12% +1044% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $29,485 220-239 $0.032 13% +321% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $22,954 100-119 $0.007 2% +203% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $81,171 200-219 $0.105 13% +25% 0.7% moderado $28,436
lleva 9 · proyeccion 62.2 ± 36.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.004 15% +4226% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $13,263 115-139 $0.002 6% +3900% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $8,474 65-89 $0.053 25% +363% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $23,078
lleva 168 · proyeccion 179.3 ± 17.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200-219 $0.004 11% +3012% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $229,241 180-199 $0.155 38% +144% 6.6% moderado $182,226
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,392 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.81x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 226.7 ± 51.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.350 70% +100% 13.5% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.1 ± 42.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 16% +4012% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $605 100-119 $0.004 12% +2481% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $611 80-99 $0.005 7% +1216% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $634 140-159 $0.015 19% +1106% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $885 60-79 $0.005 3% +499% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $660 160-179 $0.155 17% +10% 0.5% moderado $1,097
lleva 87 · proyeccion 169.3 ± 31.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 11% +2186% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $1,157 140-159 $0.010 21% +1968% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $1,880 160-179 $0.120 25% +110% 3.7% moderado $2,927
lleva 172 · proyeccion 178.7 ± 8.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.002 1% +569% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $15,831 160-179 $0.350 52% +48% 6.5% escalable $15,599
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,126 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.41x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.0 ± 54.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.330 53% +62% 7.6% escalable $311 60-79 $0.006 1% +16% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $45
lleva 0 · proyeccion 145.1 ± 45.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.003 2% +704% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,112 60-79 $0.007 4% +500% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $404 20-39 $0.002 1% +396% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,488 80-99 $0.040 8% +109% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,106 120-139 $0.130 16% +26% 1.0% moderado $422
lleva 91 · proyeccion 155.7 ± 30.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 3% +1674% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $2,282 100-119 $0.030 9% +184% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,205 120-139 $0.150 18% +20% 0.9% moderado $2,394
lleva 185 · proyeccion 190.8 ± 9.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,518 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.0 ± 30.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 115.9 ± 25.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.021 6% +204% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $520 40-59 $0.005 1% +133% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $300 80-99 $0.110 18% +66% 2.1% moderado $200
lleva 67 · proyeccion 127.5 ± 18.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.165 27% +62% 3.1% moderado $467 120-139 $0.310 41% +33% 3.7% escalable $601
lleva 161 · proyeccion 165.4 ± 4.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,664 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 126.8 ± 19.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.070 38% +450% 8.5% cautela (no operable) $0 100-119 $0.070 27% +290% 5.5% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.070 21% +201% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 86.2 ± 16.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.115 19% +62% 2.0% moderado $74 80-99 $0.410 45% +11% 1.9% escalable $252
lleva 32 · proyeccion 77.2 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.045 7% +45% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,820 80-99 $0.355 39% +11% 1.5% escalable $958
lleva 62 · proyeccion 66.7 ± 3.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 60.3 ± 13.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.003 7% +2777% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $431 60-79 $0.110 45% +308% 9.5% moderado $738
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.9 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.355 53% +49% 6.8% escalable $4,093 <20 $0.016 2% +34% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,592
lleva 19 · proyeccion 39.2 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +14% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,660 40-59 $0.425 48% +13% 2.5% escalable $4,424
lleva 34 · proyeccion 35.8 ± 2.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.025 6% +125% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $7,111
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 35.6 ± 13.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 35% +6222% 8.6% cautela (no operable) $82 60-79 $0.005 4% +666% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $93 20-39 $0.245 49% +99% 8.0% escalable $430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.0 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 9% +1219% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $368 20-39 $0.250 57% +127% 10.6% escalable $1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 13.0 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.035 22% +524% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $992
lleva 6 · proyeccion 7.3 ± 2.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.6 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.070 11% +62% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $30 15-19 $0.103 15% +42% 1.2% moderado $20 40-44 $0.006 1% +35% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $72 35-39 $0.016 2% +25% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.130 16% +24% 0.9% moderado $20
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.2 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 1% +136% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $100 20-24 $0.035 8% +130% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $100 15-19 $0.070 13% +91% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $88 10-14 $0.100 18% +79% 2.2% moderado $99
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.1 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.029 15% +421% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $470 15-19 $0.028 6% +119% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $279 5-9 $0.170 25% +46% 2.3% moderado $978 20-24 $0.011 2% +36% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $275
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.7 ± 3.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.034 10% +192% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $6,364 10-14 $0.002 0% +7% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $3,660
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).