Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.320 86% +169% 19.9% escalable $22,556 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.120 28% +132% 4.5% moderado $3,165 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.130 24% +86% 3.2% moderado $15 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.210 28% +36% 2.4% escalable $298 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.100 13% +30% 0.8% moderado $27 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.175 22% +26% 1.4% moderado $1,653 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.145 18% +25% 1.1% moderado $1,119 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.130 16% +23% 0.8% moderado $398 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.520 63% +21% 5.8% escalable $90 Donald Trump 200+ $0.265 32% +20% 1.8% escalable $1,790 CZ (Binance) <20 $0.130 15% +19% 0.7% moderado $1,683 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.135 16% +17% 0.7% moderado $15
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 12,908 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0% Sobre-dispersion: 24.76x 48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 148 · proyeccion 1173.0 ± 159.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.320 86% +169% 19.9% escalable $22,556
lleva 0 · proyeccion 313.5 ± 88.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 6% +4059% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $8,527 400-419 $0.002 5% +3236% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,588 360-379 $0.005 7% +1378% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $2,491 340-359 $0.007 8% +1009% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,918 320-339 $0.009 9% +836% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,348 300-319 $0.015 9% +482% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,420 280-299 $0.021 9% +305% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $2,754 260-279 $0.053 8% +51% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,389 80-99 $0.003 0% +45% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $7,060 100-119 $0.005 1% +14% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,707
lleva 87 · proyeccion 255.5 ± 64.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.002 3% +1650% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $30,870 340-359 $0.003 4% +1622% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $17,324 320-339 $0.004 6% +1504% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $16,126 300-319 $0.007 9% +1143% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $28,157 120-139 $0.002 2% +1142% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $43,184 380-399 $0.002 1% +871% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $28,906 280-299 $0.015 11% +640% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $22,182 140-159 $0.006 3% +439% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $38,503 400-419 $0.003 1% +145% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $22,143 260-279 $0.052 12% +131% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $17,674 160-179 $0.027 5% +89% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $24,977
lleva 0 · proyeccion 86.6 ± 46.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 8% +3913% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,777 165-189 $0.002 3% +2102% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $5,059 115-139 $0.009 15% +1444% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $704 90-114 $0.045 20% +343% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $725 <40 $0.055 12% +127% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $6,103
lleva 198 · proyeccion 244.2 ± 33.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 4% +2440% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $69,911 280-299 $0.009 10% +1046% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $76,392 260-279 $0.071 18% +148% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $100,872 200-219 $0.068 14% +106% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $117,539
lleva 60 · proyeccion 69.7 ± 15.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.005 10% +1713% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $105,003
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 6,086 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8% Sobre-dispersion: 11.9x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 191.5 ± 47.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 11% +1959% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $37 120-139 $0.011 7% +528% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $24 160-179 $0.038 15% +293% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $38 100-119 $0.011 4% +237% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $34 60-79 $0.003 1% +165% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $50 80-99 $0.011 2% +52% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $37
lleva 81 · proyeccion 197.2 ± 37.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.013 16% +1144% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $349 100-119 $0.002 1% +601% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $231 180-199 $0.078 21% +166% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,434 80-99 $0.002 0% +76% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $265
lleva 245 · proyeccion 277.4 ± 19.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 5,429 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5% Sobre-dispersion: 13.65x 37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.1 ± 49.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 2% +186% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $96 80-99 $0.025 3% +39% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $0 200+ $0.265 32% +20% 1.8% escalable $1,790
lleva 82 · proyeccion 173.6 ± 35.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.009 4% +400% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,262 120-139 $0.025 10% +318% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,436 80-99 $0.010 1% +42% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,315 160-179 $0.175 22% +26% 1.4% moderado $1,653 140-159 $0.165 18% +8% 0.4% moderado $4,972
lleva 141 · proyeccion 172.1 ± 20.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.075 9% +23% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $11,388 180-199 $0.245 27% +10% 0.8% escalable $7,694
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 3,554 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.7x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 138.8 ± 30.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.130 24% +86% 3.2% moderado $15 160-179 $0.135 16% +17% 0.7% moderado $15
lleva 34 · proyeccion 116.4 ± 23.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.210 28% +36% 2.4% escalable $298 140-159 $0.100 13% +30% 0.8% moderado $27
lleva 86 · proyeccion 107.7 ± 12.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.065 24% +267% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $709 120-139 $0.130 16% +23% 0.8% moderado $398
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 2,415 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 6.6x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 105.4 ± 26.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.046 20% +327% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $86 140-159 $0.030 8% +155% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $60
lleva 33 · proyeccion 95.0 ± 20.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 4% +564% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $354 120-139 $0.032 10% +210% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $333 60-79 $0.145 18% +25% 1.1% moderado $1,119 80-99 $0.345 37% +6% 0.8% escalable $1,335
lleva 86 · proyeccion 105.8 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.120 28% +132% 4.5% moderado $3,165 120-139 $0.070 11% +65% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $483
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 1,078 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 44.8 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 8% +1196% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $204 40-59 $0.060 60% +906% 14.5% cautela (no operable) $130
lleva 11 · proyeccion 35.4 ± 7.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.060 30% +400% 6.4% cautela (no operable) $518 <20 $0.021 2% +6% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $198
lleva 26 · proyeccion 32.6 ± 4.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 651 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0% Sobre-dispersion: 4.35x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.3 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.045 13% +188% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $5 20-39 $0.520 63% +21% 5.8% escalable $90
lleva 12 · proyeccion 28.0 ± 8.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.016 8% +419% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $40 <20 $0.130 15% +19% 0.7% moderado $1,683
lleva 22 · proyeccion 26.2 ± 4.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 155 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0% Sobre-dispersion: 16.44x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.009 7% +624% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $28 10-14 $0.026 17% +527% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $48 5-9 $0.034 19% +465% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $34 15-19 $0.035 12% +238% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $76 30-34 $0.005 1% +88% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $49 25-29 $0.016 3% +82% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $43
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.6 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 14% +2787% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $355 5-9 $0.019 23% +1117% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $373 15-19 $0.005 6% +1105% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $327 20-24 $0.009 2% +98% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $511
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.0 ± 4.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.005 18% +3184% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $977 10-14 $0.009 2% +118% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,243
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.