Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol The White House 180-199 $0.180 37% +105% 5.8% moderado $14,038 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 51% +78% 7.9% escalable $3,783 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.365 63% +71% 10.2% escalable $4,819 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.265 45% +68% 6.1% escalable $584 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.330 55% +66% 8.1% escalable $1,223 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.515 79% +54% 14.4% escalable $7,697 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.275 39% +44% 4.1% escalable $1,210 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.125 18% +42% 1.5% moderado $46 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.475 57% +21% 4.7% escalable $2,969 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.260 29% +13% 1.2% escalable $528 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.275 31% +12% 1.2% escalable $899 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.240 26% +10% 0.8% escalable $228
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,349 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.65x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 334 · proyeccion 1025.9 ± 133.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.070 58% +726% 13.7% cautela (no operable) $6,419 960-999 $0.033 11% +240% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $9,257 920-959 $0.074 10% +30% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $4,349
lleva 0 · proyeccion 284.4 ± 85.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 3% +2035% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $4,229 380-399 $0.003 4% +1654% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $3,680 360-379 $0.004 6% +1524% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $5,274 340-359 $0.005 7% +1169% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,277 320-339 $0.006 8% +1148% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $6,205 300-319 $0.013 9% +614% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $8,149 500+ $0.002 1% +292% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $20,530 280-299 $0.025 9% +280% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $7,478 80-99 $0.003 1% +179% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $25,040 260-279 $0.045 9% +104% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,684
lleva 96 · proyeccion 254.2 ± 63.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 4% +2640% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $24,721 320-339 $0.003 6% +2395% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $23,094 300-319 $0.004 9% +2352% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $37,345 120-139 $0.002 2% +1143% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $75,158 280-299 $0.011 11% +920% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $33,008 260-279 $0.036 12% +232% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $31,502 140-159 $0.015 3% +111% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $40,938 240-259 $0.115 12% +9% 0.3% moderado $23,698
lleva 44 · proyeccion 92.1 ± 35.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 7% +4496% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $22,236 165-189 $0.002 2% +1024% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $21,630 115-139 $0.026 17% +554% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $30,764 90-114 $0.245 27% +9% 0.7% escalable $44,835
lleva 182 · proyeccion 188.8 ± 13.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.002 1% +566% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $268,314 200-219 $0.046 20% +332% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $352,287
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,500 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.27x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.7 ± 41.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 17% +2915% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $449 100-119 $0.005 11% +1983% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $475 140-159 $0.010 19% +1808% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $489 80-99 $0.005 6% +1044% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $591 60-79 $0.005 3% +399% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $625 160-179 $0.070 17% +149% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $675
lleva 99 · proyeccion 174.1 ± 29.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 19% +2833% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $2,654 160-179 $0.015 27% +1614% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $3,265
lleva 196 · proyeccion 202.2 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.180 37% +105% 5.8% moderado $14,038
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,205 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 143.3 ± 45.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 5% +624% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $123 40-59 $0.005 2% +319% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $585 20-39 $0.004 1% +71% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $417 80-99 $0.056 9% +57% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $364 100-119 $0.098 13% +36% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $451
lleva 76 · proyeccion 159.6 ± 34.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 3% +578% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $3,574 120-139 $0.060 16% +162% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $1,093 60-79 $0.004 1% +135% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,907 100-119 $0.061 8% +34% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,488 180-199 $0.150 16% +6% 0.2% moderado $1,662
lleva 170 · proyeccion 173.3 ± 6.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.515 79% +54% 14.4% escalable $7,697
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,605 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.8 ± 26.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 6% +1184% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $18 40-59 $0.004 1% +200% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $388 80-99 $0.125 18% +42% 1.5% moderado $46 120-139 $0.240 26% +10% 0.8% escalable $228
lleva 86 · proyeccion 145.2 ± 18.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.003 1% +148% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $646 100-119 $0.040 8% +97% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $571 140-159 $0.275 39% +44% 4.1% escalable $1,210 120-139 $0.260 29% +13% 1.2% escalable $528
lleva 154 · proyeccion 157.9 ± 4.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.365 63% +71% 10.2% escalable $4,819
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,694 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 3.09x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 84.5 ± 16.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 1% +172% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $271 100-119 $0.080 16% +104% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $479 80-99 $0.265 45% +68% 6.1% escalable $584
lleva 30 · proyeccion 74.2 ± 11.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.075 10% +38% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $65 80-99 $0.275 31% +12% 1.2% escalable $899
lleva 62 · proyeccion 65.5 ± 3.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 827 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.2 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 51% +78% 7.9% escalable $3,783
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.0 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.013 2% +79% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,176 40-59 $0.310 33% +7% 0.8% escalable $5,592
lleva 32 · proyeccion 33.5 ± 2.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.7 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 6% +506% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.330 55% +66% 8.1% escalable $1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 21.1 ± 7.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.475 57% +21% 4.7% escalable $2,969
lleva 10 · proyeccion 10.7 ± 1.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.6 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.051 13% +154% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.085 19% +124% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $325
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 7.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.024 18% +653% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $499 20-24 $0.005 2% +271% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $320 15-19 $0.048 7% +54% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $321
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.5 ± 2.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.016 19% +1092% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $1,446
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).