Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol The White House 140-159 $0.180 28% +53% 2.9% moderado $3,060 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.445 62% +40% 8.0% escalable $2,964 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.315 42% +32% 3.7% escalable $1,893 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.235 28% +18% 1.4% escalable $6,177
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,421 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.66x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 406 · proyeccion 927.2 ± 115.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.018 27% +1377% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $7,250 960-999 $0.018 12% +589% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $11,246 920-959 $0.031 14% +340% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $5,769 880-919 $0.075 13% +78% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $5,571
lleva 69 · proyeccion 186.9 ± 55.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.002 8% +4974% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $68,941 220-239 $0.004 11% +2966% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $48,226 200-219 $0.013 13% +962% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $45,874 80-99 $0.008 3% +282% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $180,885 180-199 $0.055 14% +162% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $65,542
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,587 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 79 · proyeccion 149.7 ± 28.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.006 10% +1515% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $1,558 120-139 $0.053 22% +308% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $1,709 140-159 $0.180 28% +53% 2.9% moderado $3,060
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 118.5 ± 28.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 26% +8653% 6.5% cautela (no operable) $1,626 120-139 $0.004 26% +6317% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $2,421 80-99 $0.004 17% +4066% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $2,267 140-159 $0.018 16% +741% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $2,552
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,694 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 78 · proyeccion 132.1 ± 18.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.021 3% +57% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $436 120-139 $0.315 42% +32% 3.7% escalable $1,893
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,726 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.23x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 30 · proyeccion 66.2 ± 10.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.045 11% +142% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,301 60-79 $0.445 62% +40% 8.0% escalable $2,964
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 848 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 18 · proyeccion 35.4 ± 7.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.235 28% +18% 1.4% escalable $6,177
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 464 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 6 · proyeccion 17.2 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.051 38% +653% 8.7% cautela (no operable) $2,661
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 6.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.043 27% +513% 5.8% cautela (no operable) $996 15-19 $0.004 3% +492% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $517 10-14 $0.025 12% +368% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $631
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).