Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.195 55% +180% 10.9% moderado $2,173 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.130 36% +177% 6.6% moderado $89 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.210 57% +174% 11.6% escalable $968 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.175 29% +66% 3.5% moderado $2,478 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $325 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.185 29% +56% 3.2% moderado $1,105 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.100 15% +51% 1.4% moderado $942 Donald Trump 200+ $0.175 25% +46% 2.4% moderado $575 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.295 41% +40% 4.2% escalable $5,114 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.205 28% +36% 2.3% escalable $3,909 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.470 60% +27% 6.0% escalable $2,145 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.155 19% +21% 1.0% moderado $6,779
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,294 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 280 · proyeccion 1034.4 ± 139.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.050 60% +1098% 14.4% cautela (no operable) $5,141 960-999 $0.013 11% +714% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $8,328 920-959 $0.054 9% +66% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $3,924
lleva 0 · proyeccion 346.7 ± 94.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 7% +4416% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $2,514 420-439 $0.002 6% +3737% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,678 500+ $0.002 5% +3408% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $17,204 360-379 $0.004 8% +2244% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,940 380-399 $0.004 8% +1806% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,210 320-339 $0.007 8% +1087% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,765 340-359 $0.008 8% +955% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,792 300-319 $0.012 8% +551% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $3,122 280-299 $0.023 7% +206% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,961 260-279 $0.055 6% +10% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,420
lleva 42 · proyeccion 262.4 ± 75.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.003 5% +2072% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $13,726 360-379 $0.002 4% +1830% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $16,889 320-339 $0.004 7% +1681% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $13,010 380-399 $0.002 3% +1604% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $20,627 300-319 $0.009 9% +924% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $21,489 280-299 $0.015 10% +540% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $19,390 260-279 $0.034 11% +214% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $11,776 100-119 $0.005 1% +171% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $43,001 240-259 $0.065 10% +60% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $7,653 120-139 $0.019 2% +15% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $33,730
lleva 0 · proyeccion 110.3 ± 53.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 9% +5625% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $8,037 140-164 $0.003 14% +5397% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $9,763 115-139 $0.009 18% +1983% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $6,422 90-114 $0.043 18% +322% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $14,118
lleva 128 · proyeccion 197.0 ± 42.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 4% +2817% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $108,152 120-139 $0.002 5% +2555% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $251,454 240-259 $0.004 9% +2401% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $142,013 220-239 $0.017 14% +750% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $107,485 200-219 $0.056 18% +221% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $103,602
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,454 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.49x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 178.8 ± 45.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 6% +904% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $154 80-99 $0.005 3% +370% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $254 120-139 $0.021 10% +364% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $154 140-159 $0.045 14% +216% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $132 160-179 $0.090 17% +90% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $286 60-79 $0.005 1% +81% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $290
lleva 63 · proyeccion 165.5 ± 34.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.002 21% +13640% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $2,515 160-179 $0.011 23% +2069% 5.5% cautela (no operable) $2,828
lleva 160 · proyeccion 193.7 ± 19.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.012 19% +1521% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $5,070
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,154 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 167.1 ± 49.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +536% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $484 60-79 $0.006 2% +254% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $100 80-99 $0.025 5% +85% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $232 200+ $0.175 25% +46% 2.4% moderado $575
lleva 51 · proyeccion 159.3 ± 39.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 2% +433% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,658 80-99 $0.019 4% +123% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,439 120-139 $0.100 15% +51% 1.4% moderado $942 40-59 $0.004 0% +31% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,493 140-159 $0.175 19% +11% 0.6% moderado $1,132
lleva 145 · proyeccion 173.0 ± 20.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.090 20% +126% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $2,795 180-199 $0.205 28% +36% 2.3% escalable $3,909
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,561 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 137.8 ± 27.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 52 · proyeccion 132.9 ± 21.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.130 36% +177% 6.6% moderado $89 60-79 $0.003 1% +82% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $893
lleva 120 · proyeccion 145.6 ± 11.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.175 29% +66% 3.5% moderado $2,478
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,679 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.4 ± 17.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.015 15% +897% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $266 100-119 $0.074 40% +433% 8.7% cautela (no operable) $442 140-159 $0.005 2% +254% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $291
lleva 17 · proyeccion 78.9 ± 13.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.042 7% +59% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $160 80-99 $0.355 42% +17% 2.4% escalable $604
lleva 49 · proyeccion 70.2 ± 8.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.080 13% +58% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,525
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 818 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 48.0 ± 11.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.040 16% +306% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $1,845 40-59 $0.470 60% +27% 6.0% escalable $2,145
lleva 8 · proyeccion 37.7 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.295 41% +40% 4.2% escalable $5,114 <20 $0.021 3% +19% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,912
lleva 27 · proyeccion 35.2 ± 4.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.155 19% +21% 1.0% moderado $6,779
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 452 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3% Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.0 ± 12.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 19% +1650% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.210 57% +174% 11.6% escalable $968 60-79 $0.005 1% +34% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $215
lleva 4 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 9.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.195 55% +180% 10.9% moderado $2,173
lleva 4 · proyeccion 10.9 ± 6.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.011 8% +611% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,020
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 10.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.056 14% +159% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $325 20-24 $0.070 9% +35% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.005 4% +794% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $278 10-14 $0.029 18% +514% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $316 15-19 $0.020 11% +429% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $269
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 5.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.033 10% +205% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $606 5-9 $0.185 29% +56% 3.2% moderado $1,105
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.