CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-07 08:10 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.19580%+310%18.8%moderado$3,210
Elon Musk200-219$0.11533%+189%6.1%moderado$236,447
Ted Cruz100-119$0.17030%+76%3.9%moderado$72
Donald Trump160-179$0.14022%+59%2.4%moderado$1,872
Ted Cruz140-159$0.26542%+58%5.2%escalable$312
Donald Trump180-199$0.13521%+53%2.0%moderado$2,273
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.33547%+40%5.1%escalable$6,092
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.42557%+33%6.1%escalable$260
Elon Musk65-89$0.19526%+32%1.9%moderado$13,895
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.42553%+24%4.5%escalable$2,050
Ted Cruz120-139$0.21527%+24%1.6%escalable$192
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.37046%+23%3.4%escalable$311
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4%Sobre-dispersion: 25.57x39 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 149 · proyeccion 1132.3 ± 158.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.19580%+310%18.8%moderado$3,210
lleva 0 · proyeccion 292.1 ± 86.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0024%+2353%0.9%cautela (no operable)$4,902
380-399$0.0035%+1859%1.2%cautela (no operable)$3,565
420-439$0.0023%+1647%0.6%cautela (no operable)$2,252
440-459$0.0022%+1080%0.4%cautela (no operable)$6,976
360-379$0.0056%+1024%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,986
320-339$0.0118%+699%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,587
340-359$0.0117%+605%1.6%cautela (no operable)$3,432
500+$0.0021%+448%0.2%cautela (no operable)$19,634
300-319$0.0199%+363%1.8%cautela (no operable)$2,800
280-299$0.0349%+171%1.5%cautela (no operable)$4,710
80-99$0.0031%+139%0.1%cautela (no operable)$19,806
lleva 81 · proyeccion 246.2 ± 65.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0045%+1447%1.3%cautela (no operable)$27,658
340-359$0.0033%+1298%0.8%cautela (no operable)$26,738
300-319$0.0058%+1289%1.8%cautela (no operable)$34,904
360-379$0.0022%+1268%0.5%cautela (no operable)$23,416
280-299$0.01310%+685%2.2%cautela (no operable)$25,234
380-399$0.0021%+632%0.2%cautela (no operable)$25,519
260-279$0.02111%+434%2.4%cautela (no operable)$18,920
120-139$0.0092%+190%0.4%cautela (no operable)$51,789
240-259$0.07512%+63%1.3%cautela (no operable)$20,610
140-159$0.0344%+22%0.2%cautela (no operable)$31,072
lleva 0 · proyeccion 127.0 ± 57.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00212%+7828%2.9%cautela (no operable)$583
140-164$0.00316%+6218%3.9%cautela (no operable)$583
115-139$0.00917%+1728%4.1%cautela (no operable)$1,115
90-114$0.05516%+187%2.7%cautela (no operable)$1,478
lleva 15 · proyeccion 68.7 ± 37.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.0028%+3915%2.0%cautela (no operable)$30,320
140-164$0.0022%+1447%0.5%cautela (no operable)$15,675
90-114$0.02118%+774%4.0%cautela (no operable)$20,914
65-89$0.19526%+32%1.9%moderado$13,895
lleva 184 · proyeccion 196.2 ± 17.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
220-239$0.0069%+1337%2.0%cautela (no operable)$219,068
240-259$0.0021%+360%0.1%cautela (no operable)$235,623
200-219$0.11533%+189%6.1%moderado$236,447
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.6%Sobre-dispersion: 12.37x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 150.7 ± 43.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0117%+551%1.5%cautela (no operable)$34
120-139$0.02716%+503%3.5%cautela (no operable)$10
100-119$0.02012%+486%2.5%cautela (no operable)$10
60-79$0.0063%+438%0.7%cautela (no operable)$22
140-159$0.03518%+431%3.9%cautela (no operable)$0
40-59$0.0061%+90%0.1%cautela (no operable)$871
lleva 76 · proyeccion 151.1 ± 30.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00520%+3938%5.0%cautela (no operable)$358
100-119$0.00610%+1511%2.5%cautela (no operable)$438
140-159$0.01726%+1411%6.1%cautela (no operable)$867
80-99$0.0034%+1095%0.8%cautela (no operable)$384
60-79$0.0021%+304%0.1%cautela (no operable)$358
lleva 176 · proyeccion 183.1 ± 9.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.05434%+530%7.6%cautela (no operable)$6,845
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 143.6 ± 45.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0055%+760%1.1%cautela (no operable)$271
40-59$0.0052%+288%0.4%cautela (no operable)$189
80-99$0.0439%+102%1.1%cautela (no operable)$517
20-39$0.0041%+76%0.1%cautela (no operable)$265
160-179$0.12515%+18%0.7%moderado$1,086
lleva 90 · proyeccion 174.5 ± 34.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0021%+743%0.3%cautela (no operable)$4,613
120-139$0.04010%+154%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,395
100-119$0.0254%+64%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,603
160-179$0.14022%+59%2.4%moderado$1,872
180-199$0.13521%+53%2.0%moderado$2,273
lleva 211 · proyeccion 215.6 ± 8.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 115.6 ± 25.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.17030%+76%3.9%moderado$72
120-139$0.21527%+24%1.6%escalable$192
60-79$0.0546%+17%0.2%cautela (no operable)$52
lleva 89 · proyeccion 148.5 ± 18.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.07026%+265%5.0%cautela (no operable)$410
140-159$0.26542%+58%5.2%escalable$312
lleva 136 · proyeccion 140.8 ± 5.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.56060%+7%2.1%escalable$2,016
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.9%Sobre-dispersion: 3.05x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 89.5 ± 16.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.09524%+150%3.9%cautela (no operable)$129
80-99$0.37046%+23%3.4%escalable$311
lleva 28 · proyeccion 76.4 ± 12.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.33537%+11%1.4%escalable$1,616
lleva 67 · proyeccion 74.3 ± 4.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.9x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.7 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0062%+259%0.4%cautela (no operable)$590
40-59$0.42553%+24%4.5%escalable$2,050
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.2 ± 8.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.30034%+14%1.5%escalable$2,600
lleva 31 · proyeccion 32.6 ± 2.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 23.9 ± 11.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0448%+93%1.1%cautela (no operable)$10
20-39$0.42557%+33%6.1%escalable$260
lleva 6 · proyeccion 18.3 ± 8.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0040%+32%0.0%cautela (no operable)$487
20-39$0.37044%+18%2.6%escalable$2,434
lleva 18 · proyeccion 19.3 ± 2.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.33547%+40%5.1%escalable$6,092
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.0 ± 10.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.04113%+227%2.4%cautela (no operable)$21
20-24$0.0268%+193%1.3%cautela (no operable)$20
10-14$0.08518%+111%2.6%cautela (no operable)$138
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0097%+670%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,214
10-14$0.03716%+334%3.2%cautela (no operable)$2,056
20-24$0.0092%+144%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,126
25-29$0.0040%+10%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,117
lleva 7 · proyeccion 7.5 ± 2.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03523%+544%5.0%cautela (no operable)$3,620