Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.170 77% +355% 18.2% moderado $3,430 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.340 55% +61% 7.8% escalable $306 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.300 47% +57% 6.1% escalable $2,113 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.135 19% +39% 1.5% moderado $1,876 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.330 44% +33% 4.1% escalable $1,633 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.125 15% +18% 0.6% moderado $1,030 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 33% +15% 1.5% escalable $2,659 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.330 37% +12% 1.4% escalable $2,538 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.220 23% +6% 0.5% escalable $1,959 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.400 43% +6% 1.1% escalable $324 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.130 14% +6% 0.2% moderado $1,104
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,167 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4% Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x 39 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 152 · proyeccion 1117.6 ± 157.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.170 77% +355% 18.2% moderado $3,430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 275.1 ± 84.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.003 5% +1922% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,605 380-399 $0.002 4% +1783% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $6,301 400-419 $0.002 3% +1668% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $8,874 340-359 $0.006 6% +887% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5,555 320-339 $0.008 8% +862% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $4,758 300-319 $0.013 9% +546% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,619 280-299 $0.026 9% +259% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $7,387 500+ $0.002 0% +152% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $25,262 80-99 $0.004 1% +85% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $20,715 260-279 $0.055 9% +72% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,119 240-259 $0.085 9% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,767
lleva 84 · proyeccion 232.5 ± 61.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.003 4% +1414% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $29,971 340-359 $0.002 2% +1346% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $31,411 300-319 $0.005 6% +982% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $40,468 280-299 $0.009 8% +788% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $32,155 360-379 $0.002 1% +646% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $27,914 260-279 $0.018 11% +516% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $33,292 240-259 $0.037 12% +231% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $26,811 120-139 $0.019 3% +70% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $58,683 220-239 $0.085 13% +51% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $30,567
lleva 0 · proyeccion 110.3 ± 53.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 9% +5627% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $795 140-164 $0.003 14% +5398% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $825 115-139 $0.011 18% +1586% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $3,405 90-114 $0.055 18% +234% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $2,006
lleva 18 · proyeccion 55.0 ± 30.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.006 10% +1512% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $34,602 115-139 $0.002 2% +1086% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $37,980 65-89 $0.075 25% +230% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $21,390
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,310 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.6% Sobre-dispersion: 12.34x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 145.6 ± 41.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 18% +4939% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $317 100-119 $0.004 13% +3652% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $382 60-79 $0.003 4% +1131% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $357 140-159 $0.034 19% +456% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $320 20-39 $0.003 0% +68% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $473 80-99 $0.074 8% +5% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $359
lleva 90 · proyeccion 155.0 ± 28.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 19% +3644% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $375 140-159 $0.013 27% +1908% 6.5% cautela (no operable) $884 100-119 $0.006 8% +1132% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $455 80-99 $0.002 2% +960% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $384
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,037 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 1 · proyeccion 137.2 ± 44.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.007 6% +711% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $291 40-59 $0.009 3% +207% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $307 80-99 $0.050 10% +102% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $540 100-119 $0.125 15% +18% 0.6% moderado $1,030 160-179 $0.130 14% +6% 0.2% moderado $1,104
lleva 95 · proyeccion 172.3 ± 33.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.009 4% +370% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $2,826 120-139 $0.048 11% +121% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,504 140-159 $0.135 19% +39% 1.5% moderado $1,876 160-179 $0.220 23% +6% 0.5% escalable $1,959
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,452 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 1 · proyeccion 109.5 ± 24.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.030 9% +195% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $87
lleva 95 · proyeccion 147.4 ± 17.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.050 27% +441% 5.8% cautela (no operable) $525 140-159 $0.330 44% +33% 4.1% escalable $1,633
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,634 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.0% Sobre-dispersion: 3.09x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 81.5 ± 15.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.090 12% +31% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $155 80-99 $0.400 43% +6% 1.1% escalable $324
lleva 32 · proyeccion 71.0 ± 11.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 795 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 39.5 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.300 47% +57% 6.1% escalable $2,113
lleva 15 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 7.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 33% +15% 1.5% escalable $2,659
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.6 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.025 6% +146% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $43 20-39 $0.340 55% +61% 7.8% escalable $306
lleva 6 · proyeccion 16.9 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.330 37% +12% 1.4% escalable $2,538
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 35-39 $0.002 0% +21% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $52
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.6 ± 6.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.032 14% +336% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $2,068 15-19 $0.015 5% +211% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,252
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.