Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.131 24% +84% 3.2% moderado $1,312 The White House 140-159 $0.165 29% +74% 3.6% moderado $3,565 Elon Musk 180-199 $0.105 15% +39% 1.1% moderado $74,328 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.190 26% +37% 2.2% moderado $6,473 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.465 61% +32% 7.0% escalable $3,070
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,421 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.66x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 425 · proyeccion 940.0 ± 115.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.018 30% +1579% 7.2% cautela (no operable) $7,518 960-999 $0.014 13% +830% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $11,321 920-959 $0.028 14% +402% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $5,897 880-919 $0.075 13% +73% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,646
lleva 88 · proyeccion 199.7 ± 53.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 6% +4167% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $79,276 240-259 $0.004 10% +2662% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $73,646 220-239 $0.009 13% +1238% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $66,048 200-219 $0.042 15% +251% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $61,058 100-119 $0.013 4% +170% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $187,745 180-199 $0.105 15% +39% 1.1% moderado $74,328
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,587 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 91 · proyeccion 154.3 ± 26.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.007 8% +996% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,695 120-139 $0.054 19% +255% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $1,763 140-159 $0.165 29% +74% 3.6% moderado $3,565 200+ $0.033 5% +41% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $7,507
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 113.3 ± 27.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 24% +8003% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $3,716 80-99 $0.003 20% +7885% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $2,590 140-159 $0.009 12% +1185% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $2,668 160-179 $0.027 4% +34% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,377
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,694 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 79 · proyeccion 129.4 ± 17.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.017 4% +147% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $461 100-119 $0.131 24% +84% 3.2% moderado $1,312
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,726 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.23x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 30 · proyeccion 65.2 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.041 9% +120% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,307 60-79 $0.465 61% +32% 7.0% escalable $3,070
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 848 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 20 · proyeccion 35.3 ± 6.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.190 26% +37% 2.2% moderado $6,473
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 464 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 6 · proyeccion 17.0 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.043 37% +767% 8.5% cautela (no operable) $2,663
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 6.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.035 27% +662% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $1,067 15-19 $0.004 3% +466% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $574 10-14 $0.025 11% +359% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $674
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).