CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-08 11:30 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.16575%+356%17.6%moderado$3,492
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12038%+220%7.5%moderado$0
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.13036%+176%6.6%moderado$534
Ted Cruz140-159$0.17547%+167%8.8%moderado$2,049
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.10526%+144%4.2%moderado$3,919
Donald Trump200+$0.22554%+138%10.0%escalable$778
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.33555%+64%8.1%escalable$8
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.16025%+59%2.8%moderado$2,707
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.32050%+58%6.8%escalable$765
Donald Trump160-179$0.17023%+36%1.8%moderado$2,208
Ted Cruz100-119$0.23532%+35%2.7%escalable$215
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.30040%+34%3.7%escalable$2,857
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 170 · proyeccion 1105.1 ± 154.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.16575%+356%17.6%moderado$3,492
lleva 0 · proyeccion 398.1 ± 100.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00216%+10385%3.9%cautela (no operable)$10,630
400-419$0.0028%+5131%1.9%cautela (no operable)$240
420-439$0.0028%+4916%1.9%cautela (no operable)$190
380-399$0.0048%+2148%1.9%cautela (no operable)$200
360-379$0.0068%+1067%1.8%cautela (no operable)$62
340-359$0.0077%+838%1.6%cautela (no operable)$187
320-339$0.0136%+402%1.3%cautela (no operable)$175
300-319$0.0175%+216%0.9%cautela (no operable)$451
280-299$0.0284%+61%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,513
lleva 18 · proyeccion 263.2 ± 79.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0024%+2631%1.0%cautela (no operable)$22,561
340-359$0.0036%+2125%1.3%cautela (no operable)$21,118
380-399$0.0023%+1788%0.7%cautela (no operable)$28,992
320-339$0.0047%+1475%1.7%cautela (no operable)$15,027
300-319$0.0098%+897%1.9%cautela (no operable)$13,318
280-299$0.01710%+460%2.0%cautela (no operable)$13,480
60-79$0.0021%+242%0.1%cautela (no operable)$20,568
260-279$0.03810%+164%1.6%cautela (no operable)$5,180
80-99$0.0041%+162%0.1%cautela (no operable)$37,196
100-119$0.0092%+72%0.2%cautela (no operable)$40,107
240-259$0.07510%+32%0.7%cautela (no operable)$4,793
lleva 102 · proyeccion 220.6 ± 55.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0034%+1488%0.9%cautela (no operable)$55,290
320-339$0.0022%+1289%0.5%cautela (no operable)$40,563
280-299$0.0057%+1108%1.5%cautela (no operable)$46,885
260-279$0.01410%+597%2.1%cautela (no operable)$56,159
240-259$0.03313%+287%2.4%cautela (no operable)$45,402
120-139$0.0154%+157%0.6%cautela (no operable)$81,139
220-239$0.07514%+90%1.8%cautela (no operable)$44,981
lleva 0 · proyeccion 80.4 ± 45.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0026%+4194%1.6%cautela (no operable)$4,494
115-139$0.00713%+1631%3.1%cautela (no operable)$6,364
90-114$0.03719%+426%4.1%cautela (no operable)$7,168
65-89$0.17522%+24%1.3%moderado$5,725
lleva 36 · proyeccion 43.1 ± 13.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
65-89$0.0076%+700%1.2%cautela (no operable)$79,396
<40$0.37539%+5%0.8%escalable$97,166
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.3 ± 48.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0051%+161%0.2%cautela (no operable)$17
140-159$0.05010%+102%1.4%cautela (no operable)$21
120-139$0.0406%+56%0.6%cautela (no operable)$61
200+$0.41048%+18%3.0%escalable$87
lleva 21 · proyeccion 150.1 ± 39.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00418%+4920%4.3%cautela (no operable)$361
100-119$0.00412%+3304%2.9%cautela (no operable)$426
140-159$0.03220%+538%4.4%cautela (no operable)$581
160-179$0.16518%+8%0.4%moderado$658
lleva 106 · proyeccion 159.5 ± 25.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00216%+7782%3.9%cautela (no operable)$1,029
100-119$0.0025%+3097%1.2%cautela (no operable)$463
140-159$0.04329%+572%6.3%cautela (no operable)$2,710
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.4 ± 54.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.22554%+138%10.0%escalable$778
160-179$0.07512%+59%1.2%cautela (no operable)$210
180-199$0.11514%+22%0.7%moderado$261
lleva 24 · proyeccion 148.4 ± 42.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0041%+269%0.2%cautela (no operable)$453
100-119$0.05212%+135%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,050
80-99$0.0367%+101%0.9%cautela (no operable)$578
20-39$0.0040%+12%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,128
lleva 118 · proyeccion 183.5 ± 30.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0186%+229%1.0%cautela (no operable)$1,850
140-159$0.05014%+182%2.4%cautela (no operable)$2,506
160-179$0.17023%+36%1.8%moderado$2,208
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.8 ± 29.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.0255%+101%0.7%cautela (no operable)$40
lleva 20 · proyeccion 117.0 ± 23.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0185%+158%0.7%cautela (no operable)$97
100-119$0.23532%+35%2.7%escalable$215
lleva 114 · proyeccion 154.9 ± 15.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.01114%+1156%3.4%cautela (no operable)$782
140-159$0.17547%+167%8.8%moderado$2,049
100-119$0.0051%+86%0.1%cautela (no operable)$517
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 115.9 ± 18.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.05032%+539%7.1%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.12038%+220%7.5%moderado$0
lleva 9 · proyeccion 83.7 ± 15.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.11514%+21%0.7%moderado$276
lleva 39 · proyeccion 73.1 ± 10.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 56.0 ± 12.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.13036%+176%6.6%moderado$534
40-59$0.45051%+13%2.7%escalable$1,250
lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 10.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0264%+44%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,125
40-59$0.30040%+34%3.7%escalable$2,857
lleva 18 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 6.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 31.6 ± 13.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.06926%+270%5.0%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.33555%+64%8.1%escalable$8
lleva 0 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 10.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.32050%+58%6.8%escalable$765
lleva 6 · proyeccion 14.9 ± 6.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.16025%+59%2.8%moderado$2,707
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.5 ± 11.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
25-29$0.0256%+160%1.0%cautela (no operable)$50
35-39$0.0111%+30%0.1%cautela (no operable)$22
10-14$0.14517%+16%0.7%moderado$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.5 ± 9.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0135%+326%1.0%cautela (no operable)$82
10-14$0.05618%+224%3.3%cautela (no operable)$199
15-19$0.03711%+205%2.0%cautela (no operable)$83
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.0 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0063%+350%0.6%cautela (no operable)$1,321
10-14$0.03012%+290%2.2%cautela (no operable)$2,119
5-9$0.10526%+144%4.2%moderado$3,919