CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-10 17:08 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.12070%+483%16.5%moderado$4,581
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.25058%+132%11.0%escalable$1,186
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12529%+132%4.7%moderado$74
The White House140-159$0.10723%+113%3.4%moderado$1,317
Ted Cruz100-119$0.17035%+104%5.3%moderado$368
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.34058%+72%9.3%escalable$2,979
Elon Musk200-219$0.13523%+71%2.8%moderado$127,146
Donald Trump160-179$0.22032%+45%3.1%escalable$4,009
Ted Cruz80-99$0.10614%+31%0.9%moderado$435
Ted Cruz120-139$0.27534%+24%2.2%escalable$443
Donald Trump120-139$0.16020%+23%1.1%moderado$1,560
Ted Cruz140-159$0.17020%+20%1.0%moderado$216
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 227 · proyeccion 1076.8 ± 147.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.12070%+483%16.5%moderado$4,581
960-999$0.0499%+79%1.0%cautela (no operable)$3,782
lleva 0 · proyeccion 314.1 ± 89.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0025%+3269%1.2%cautela (no operable)$7,938
420-439$0.0024%+2493%0.9%cautela (no operable)$13,032
440-459$0.0023%+1800%0.7%cautela (no operable)$10,255
380-399$0.0046%+1684%1.5%cautela (no operable)$2,381
360-379$0.0047%+1532%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,758
340-359$0.0058%+1395%1.9%cautela (no operable)$4,155
500+$0.0022%+1184%0.4%cautela (no operable)$22,904
320-339$0.0099%+930%2.0%cautela (no operable)$2,122
300-319$0.0199%+355%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,921
280-299$0.0259%+249%1.6%cautela (no operable)$6,802
260-279$0.0508%+57%0.8%cautela (no operable)$656
80-99$0.0030%+56%0.0%cautela (no operable)$16,239
lleva 0 · proyeccion 203.2 ± 72.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240+$0.00631%+5019%7.6%cautela (no operable)$18
190-214$0.00614%+2195%3.3%cautela (no operable)$18
215-239$0.00613%+2074%3.1%cautela (no operable)$18
165-189$0.00613%+2050%3.1%cautela (no operable)$541
140-164$0.00611%+1688%2.5%cautela (no operable)$541
115-139$0.0178%+380%1.6%cautela (no operable)$540
lleva 75 · proyeccion 236.9 ± 64.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0024%+2845%1.1%cautela (no operable)$45,320
300-319$0.0047%+1541%1.6%cautela (no operable)$40,476
280-299$0.0069%+1264%2.1%cautela (no operable)$33,615
260-279$0.01711%+559%2.3%cautela (no operable)$22,483
100-119$0.0042%+292%0.3%cautela (no operable)$70,146
240-259$0.05512%+120%1.8%cautela (no operable)$17,238
220-239$0.09512%+29%0.8%cautela (no operable)$18,129
120-139$0.0263%+19%0.1%cautela (no operable)$71,293
lleva 0 · proyeccion 77.2 ± 44.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0026%+3609%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,502
115-139$0.00612%+1748%2.9%cautela (no operable)$1,690
90-114$0.04619%+314%3.8%cautela (no operable)$1,805
65-89$0.20522%+8%0.5%escalable$3,239
lleva 159 · proyeccion 194.3 ± 30.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240-259$0.0035%+1954%1.2%cautela (no operable)$121,453
220-239$0.01313%+978%3.1%cautela (no operable)$112,474
200-219$0.13523%+71%2.8%moderado$127,146
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.9x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 165.5 ± 44.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00713%+1742%3.1%cautela (no operable)$120
100-119$0.0068%+1257%1.9%cautela (no operable)$120
80-99$0.0054%+666%0.9%cautela (no operable)$149
60-79$0.0062%+197%0.3%cautela (no operable)$169
140-159$0.08917%+87%2.1%cautela (no operable)$268
40-59$0.0051%+24%0.0%cautela (no operable)$987
lleva 58 · proyeccion 155.2 ± 34.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.00310%+3748%2.4%cautela (no operable)$453
80-99$0.0044%+978%0.9%cautela (no operable)$724
120-139$0.05318%+231%3.2%cautela (no operable)$721
140-159$0.10723%+113%3.4%moderado$1,317
lleva 143 · proyeccion 164.6 ± 16.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.03732%+744%7.2%cautela (no operable)$7,942
200+$0.0111%+34%0.1%cautela (no operable)$11,958
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.43x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 163.5 ± 48.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0031%+332%0.2%cautela (no operable)$339
20-39$0.0020%+156%0.1%cautela (no operable)$587
80-99$0.0455%+16%0.2%cautela (no operable)$973
200+$0.20523%+12%0.8%escalable$1,157
lleva 65 · proyeccion 148.1 ± 34.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0086%+604%1.2%cautela (no operable)$1,623
60-79$0.0042%+429%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,357
100-119$0.03512%+260%2.3%cautela (no operable)$1,710
120-139$0.16020%+23%1.1%moderado$1,560
lleva 159 · proyeccion 183.3 ± 18.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.22032%+45%3.1%escalable$4,009
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 126.2 ± 26.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0213%+57%0.3%cautela (no operable)$511
140-159$0.17020%+20%1.0%moderado$216
lleva 48 · proyeccion 119.0 ± 19.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.17035%+104%5.3%moderado$368
80-99$0.10614%+31%0.9%moderado$435
60-79$0.0172%+28%0.1%cautela (no operable)$124
120-139$0.27534%+24%2.2%escalable$443
lleva 142 · proyeccion 156.9 ± 9.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.0051%+19%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,991
140-159$0.52558%+11%3.1%escalable$3,522
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 92.9 ± 16.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12529%+132%4.7%moderado$74
120-139$0.0405%+37%0.4%cautela (no operable)$90
80-99$0.40544%+8%1.4%escalable$241
lleva 26 · proyeccion 77.9 ± 12.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.36541%+11%1.6%escalable$839
lleva 56 · proyeccion 67.4 ± 5.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0679%+37%0.7%cautela (no operable)$3,145
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 45.3 ± 11.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.34058%+72%9.3%escalable$2,979
<20$0.0091%+30%0.1%cautela (no operable)$635
60-79$0.08411%+29%0.7%cautela (no operable)$811
lleva 15 · proyeccion 38.7 ± 8.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0051%+91%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,660
lleva 30 · proyeccion 35.3 ± 3.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.06514%+121%2.1%cautela (no operable)$4,776
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 26.2 ± 11.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00613%+1901%3.1%cautela (no operable)$354
20-39$0.25058%+132%11.0%escalable$1,186
lleva 0 · proyeccion 15.3 ± 9.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.05032%+532%7.0%cautela (no operable)$918
lleva 6 · proyeccion 9.6 ± 4.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.5 ± 10.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+175%0.3%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.05514%+148%2.1%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0358%+137%1.3%cautela (no operable)$12
10-14$0.09018%+97%2.4%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.5 ± 7.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02916%+445%3.4%cautela (no operable)$397
15-19$0.0297%+143%1.1%cautela (no operable)$206
20-24$0.0112%+78%0.2%cautela (no operable)$195
5-9$0.20524%+18%1.2%escalable$676
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.0 ± 3.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.07516%+115%2.3%cautela (no operable)$5,430