Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 180-199 $0.155 37% +141% 6.5% moderado $185,741 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.255 56% +120% 10.3% escalable $1,246 The White House 160-179 $0.125 25% +102% 3.6% moderado $2,927 The White House 200+ $0.350 70% +99% 13.3% escalable $0 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.260 49% +90% 7.9% escalable $430 Donald Trump 200+ $0.345 53% +53% 7.0% escalable $341 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.115 17% +51% 1.6% moderado $74 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.360 53% +46% 6.5% escalable $4,093 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.305 41% +36% 3.9% escalable $601 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.205 27% +32% 2.1% escalable $483 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.125 16% +28% 1.0% moderado $20 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.105 13% +26% 0.8% moderado $29,518
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,251 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 236 · proyeccion 1059.2 ± 145.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.075 66% +780% 15.8% cautela (no operable) $4,775 960-999 $0.022 9% +319% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,139 920-959 $0.045 8% +74% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $2,621
lleva 0 · proyeccion 415.0 ± 103.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 21% +13632% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $677 420-439 $0.002 8% +5004% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $635 440-459 $0.002 7% +4774% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $620 400-419 $0.003 8% +2988% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $563 380-399 $0.003 8% +2900% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $563 360-379 $0.005 7% +1176% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $602 340-359 $0.009 6% +644% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $746 320-339 $0.011 5% +423% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $582 300-319 $0.015 5% +206% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,680 280-299 $0.030 4% +21% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $597
lleva 0 · proyeccion 288.4 ± 85.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 5% +3001% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,920 400-419 $0.002 3% +2198% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $10,795 360-379 $0.004 6% +1600% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,428 340-359 $0.004 7% +1501% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,114 320-339 $0.005 8% +1404% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,212 440-459 $0.002 2% +973% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $11,270 300-319 $0.013 9% +566% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,738 500+ $0.002 1% +366% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $23,479 280-299 $0.025 9% +278% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $8,560 260-279 $0.045 9% +101% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,686 80-99 $0.004 1% +84% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $17,995
lleva 0 · proyeccion 177.9 ± 67.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240+ $0.002 18% +11950% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $903 165-189 $0.002 15% +9698% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $571 190-214 $0.002 14% +9102% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $48 140-164 $0.002 14% +9009% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $571 215-239 $0.002 11% +7445% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $819 115-139 $0.009 11% +1067% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $756 90-114 $0.043 8% +83% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $160
lleva 84 · proyeccion 220.6 ± 59.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.003 7% +2644% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $45,001 260-279 $0.004 10% +2028% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $41,717 240-259 $0.011 12% +1037% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $29,885 220-239 $0.033 13% +309% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $22,954 100-119 $0.007 2% +211% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $81,171 200-219 $0.105 13% +26% 0.8% moderado $29,518
lleva 9 · proyeccion 60.9 ± 36.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.004 15% +4065% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $13,263 115-139 $0.002 6% +3586% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $8,474 65-89 $0.046 24% +426% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $23,480
lleva 168 · proyeccion 178.1 ± 16.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200-219 $0.004 9% +1818% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $242,858 180-199 $0.155 37% +141% 6.5% moderado $185,741
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,392 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.81x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 226.2 ± 51.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.350 70% +99% 13.3% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 150.6 ± 42.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 17% +4047% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $605 100-119 $0.004 12% +2516% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $611 80-99 $0.005 7% +1240% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $634 140-159 $0.015 19% +1109% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $885 60-79 $0.005 3% +512% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $660 160-179 $0.150 17% +13% 0.6% moderado $1,097
lleva 87 · proyeccion 168.8 ± 31.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 12% +2235% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $1,157 140-159 $0.010 21% +1997% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $1,880 160-179 $0.125 25% +102% 3.6% moderado $2,927
lleva 172 · proyeccion 178.2 ± 8.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.455 55% +20% 4.3% escalable $15,609 200+ $0.005 1% +12% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $16,330
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,126 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.41x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 203.2 ± 54.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.345 53% +53% 7.0% escalable $341 60-79 $0.006 1% +20% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $45
lleva 0 · proyeccion 144.3 ± 45.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.003 2% +727% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,115 60-79 $0.007 5% +515% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $406 20-39 $0.002 1% +411% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,490 80-99 $0.040 9% +116% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,142 120-139 $0.135 16% +22% 0.9% moderado $425
lleva 92 · proyeccion 155.8 ± 30.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 3% +1614% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $2,282 100-119 $0.038 8% +118% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,205 120-139 $0.150 18% +20% 0.9% moderado $2,394
lleva 186 · proyeccion 191.0 ± 8.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,518 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 171.8 ± 30.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 115.7 ± 25.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.021 6% +208% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $520
lleva 67 · proyeccion 127.2 ± 18.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.035 6% +71% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $450 120-139 $0.305 41% +36% 3.9% escalable $601 100-119 $0.205 27% +32% 2.1% escalable $483
lleva 161 · proyeccion 165.1 ± 4.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,664 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 125.9 ± 19.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.070 38% +448% 8.4% cautela (no operable) $0 100-119 $0.070 28% +304% 5.7% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.070 20% +187% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 85.4 ± 16.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.115 17% +51% 1.6% moderado $74 80-99 $0.410 45% +10% 1.7% escalable $252
lleva 32 · proyeccion 76.4 ± 11.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.044 7% +64% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,829
lleva 62 · proyeccion 65.8 ± 3.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 60.1 ± 13.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.003 7% +2692% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $431 60-79 $0.090 45% +396% 9.8% cautela (no operable) $738
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.7 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.360 53% +46% 6.5% escalable $4,093 <20 $0.017 2% +34% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,592
lleva 19 · proyeccion 39.0 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +18% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,660 40-59 $0.435 47% +9% 1.7% escalable $4,424
lleva 34 · proyeccion 35.6 ± 2.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.019 4% +108% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $7,111
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 35.3 ± 13.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 34% +6088% 8.4% cautela (no operable) $82 60-79 $0.005 4% +612% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $93 20-39 $0.260 49% +90% 7.9% escalable $430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 23.6 ± 11.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 8% +1122% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $368 20-39 $0.255 56% +120% 10.3% escalable $1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 12.6 ± 8.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.035 20% +489% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $992
lleva 6 · proyeccion 7.0 ± 2.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.6 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.085 15% +73% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $20 40-44 $0.006 1% +35% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $72 10-14 $0.125 16% +28% 1.0% moderado $20 20-24 $0.090 11% +26% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $30 35-39 $0.016 2% +25% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $40
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.2 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 1% +136% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $100 20-24 $0.035 8% +130% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $100 15-19 $0.065 13% +106% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $88 10-14 $0.095 18% +88% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $99
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.1 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.062 18% +182% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $470 15-19 $0.029 8% +168% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $279 20-24 $0.011 2% +85% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $275 5-9 $0.235 26% +10% 0.8% escalable $978
lleva 1 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 3.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.034 17% +396% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $6,364
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).