CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-16 11:59 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.21546%+114%7.8%escalable$1,093
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.26554%+103%9.3%escalable$2,257
Ted Cruz120-139$0.17533%+91%4.8%moderado$657
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.16028%+72%3.4%moderado$1,691
Ted Cruz100-119$0.12321%+70%2.4%moderado$975
Ted Cruz160-179$0.32054%+68%8.0%escalable$1,912
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.35552%+47%6.5%escalable$3,458
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.37547%+25%3.7%escalable$4,398
Donald Trump140-159$0.15517%+12%0.6%moderado$1,200
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.23025%+10%0.8%escalable$634
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.29031%+7%0.7%escalable$7,988
Donald Trump160-179$0.19020%+6%0.3%moderado$1,697
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 371 · proyeccion 982.5 ± 125.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06045%+644%10.3%cautela (no operable)$6,693
960-999$0.02513%+418%2.6%cautela (no operable)$9,640
920-959$0.05112%+132%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,715
880-919$0.08510%+20%0.5%cautela (no operable)$4,111
lleva 34 · proyeccion 239.8 ± 72.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0039%+3372%2.1%cautela (no operable)$32,307
300-319$0.0027%+3365%1.7%cautela (no operable)$49,628
320-339$0.0035%+1952%1.2%cautela (no operable)$52,057
260-279$0.00910%+1086%2.3%cautela (no operable)$12,219
240-259$0.02111%+430%2.2%cautela (no operable)$10,135
80-99$0.0031%+421%0.3%cautela (no operable)$59,978
220-239$0.04511%+141%1.7%cautela (no operable)$8,280
lleva 133 · proyeccion 212.9 ± 45.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0038%+3140%2.0%cautela (no operable)$77,763
280-299$0.0024%+2746%1.0%cautela (no operable)$80,589
240-259$0.00513%+2206%3.0%cautela (no operable)$84,723
300-319$0.0022%+1137%0.4%cautela (no operable)$79,652
220-239$0.03416%+389%3.4%cautela (no operable)$63,436
140-159$0.0187%+260%1.2%cautela (no operable)$163,936
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 35 · proyeccion 153.1 ± 36.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00518%+3095%4.3%cautela (no operable)$563
100-119$0.00511%+1860%2.6%cautela (no operable)$601
140-159$0.01721%+1198%5.0%cautela (no operable)$771
160-179$0.02320%+748%4.4%cautela (no operable)$976
lleva 141 · proyeccion 182.5 ± 21.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.02930%+918%7.0%cautela (no operable)$6,199
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 170.7 ± 39.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0031%+213%0.1%cautela (no operable)$3,629
100-119$0.0336%+89%0.7%cautela (no operable)$750
120-139$0.06512%+80%1.4%cautela (no operable)$716
80-99$0.0222%+13%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,108
140-159$0.15517%+12%0.6%moderado$1,200
160-179$0.19020%+6%0.3%moderado$1,697
lleva 141 · proyeccion 190.2 ± 26.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00510%+1634%2.3%cautela (no operable)$3,549
160-179$0.08522%+159%3.7%cautela (no operable)$5,076
180-199$0.28029%+5%0.5%escalable$3,188
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 45 · proyeccion 132.7 ± 23.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.17533%+91%4.8%moderado$657
100-119$0.12321%+70%2.4%moderado$975
lleva 142 · proyeccion 171.8 ± 13.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.04517%+279%3.3%cautela (no operable)$2,322
160-179$0.32054%+68%8.0%escalable$1,912
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 82.3 ± 14.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.01511%+653%2.5%cautela (no operable)$562
80-99$0.21546%+114%7.8%escalable$1,093
120-139$0.0041%+14%0.0%cautela (no operable)$322
lleva 49 · proyeccion 74.2 ± 9.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0175%+209%0.9%cautela (no operable)$1,224
80-99$0.16028%+72%3.4%moderado$1,691
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 10 · proyeccion 39.0 ± 9.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0092%+76%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,560
40-59$0.37547%+25%3.7%escalable$4,398
lleva 26 · proyeccion 36.8 ± 5.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.29031%+7%0.7%escalable$7,988
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 21.2 ± 9.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0103%+217%0.6%cautela (no operable)$463
20-39$0.26554%+103%9.3%escalable$2,257
lleva 13 · proyeccion 19.9 ± 6.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.35552%+47%6.5%escalable$3,458
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0067%+1018%1.7%cautela (no operable)$280
20-24$0.0052%+267%0.4%cautela (no operable)$180
10-14$0.06017%+181%2.9%cautela (no operable)$400
5-9$0.23025%+10%0.8%escalable$634
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.6 ± 4.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0035%+1959%1.2%cautela (no operable)$1,162
5-9$0.09528%+191%5.0%cautela (no operable)$2,542
15-19$0.0020%+38%0.0%cautela (no operable)$982