CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-07 16:45 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.18578%+321%18.2%moderado$3,430
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.29048%+65%6.7%escalable$2,062
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.35555%+54%7.5%escalable$304
Donald Trump160-179$0.16023%+46%2.2%moderado$1,940
Ted Cruz140-159$0.33544%+31%3.9%escalable$1,614
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.11013%+20%0.6%moderado$155
Donald Trump140-159$0.16019%+17%0.8%moderado$1,835
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.30035%+17%1.8%escalable$2,648
Elon Musk220-239$0.11513%+11%0.3%moderado$27,519
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.33537%+10%1.3%escalable$2,518
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.56562%+10%3.2%escalable$1,239
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.40544%+7%1.3%escalable$324
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x39 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 152 · proyeccion 1120.1 ± 157.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.18578%+321%18.2%moderado$3,430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 277.7 ± 84.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
380-399$0.0024%+2524%0.9%cautela (no operable)$4,250
360-379$0.0035%+1993%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,603
340-359$0.0067%+912%1.5%cautela (no operable)$5,344
320-339$0.0098%+820%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,331
300-319$0.0139%+551%1.9%cautela (no operable)$3,655
280-299$0.0249%+289%1.8%cautela (no operable)$6,843
80-99$0.0041%+98%0.1%cautela (no operable)$20,468
260-279$0.0559%+71%1.0%cautela (no operable)$2,069
100-119$0.0111%+19%0.1%cautela (no operable)$21,970
lleva 84 · proyeccion 235.1 ± 62.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0034%+1531%1.0%cautela (no operable)$29,821
340-359$0.0022%+1492%0.6%cautela (no operable)$31,261
300-319$0.0056%+1042%1.4%cautela (no operable)$38,642
280-299$0.0099%+820%2.0%cautela (no operable)$31,679
360-379$0.0021%+742%0.3%cautela (no operable)$27,349
260-279$0.01911%+462%2.3%cautela (no operable)$31,743
240-259$0.03712%+232%2.2%cautela (no operable)$26,780
120-139$0.0153%+112%0.4%cautela (no operable)$58,205
220-239$0.11513%+11%0.3%moderado$27,519
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.9 ± 53.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.0029%+5994%2.2%cautela (no operable)$795
140-164$0.00314%+5567%3.5%cautela (no operable)$825
115-139$0.01118%+1592%4.2%cautela (no operable)$3,405
90-114$0.05518%+228%3.3%cautela (no operable)$2,006
lleva 18 · proyeccion 57.6 ± 31.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.00712%+1514%2.9%cautela (no operable)$34,514
115-139$0.0033%+1174%0.7%cautela (no operable)$37,897
65-89$0.09526%+169%4.4%cautela (no operable)$20,582
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.6%Sobre-dispersion: 12.36x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 1 · proyeccion 143.4 ± 41.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00418%+5002%4.4%cautela (no operable)$315
100-119$0.00414%+3809%3.3%cautela (no operable)$380
60-79$0.0034%+1271%1.0%cautela (no operable)$355
140-159$0.03519%+433%3.9%cautela (no operable)$305
20-39$0.0031%+103%0.1%cautela (no operable)$471
80-99$0.0778%+8%0.2%cautela (no operable)$359
lleva 86 · proyeccion 152.8 ± 28.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00520%+3872%4.9%cautela (no operable)$375
140-159$0.01327%+1904%6.5%cautela (no operable)$884
100-119$0.0069%+1308%2.1%cautela (no operable)$455
80-99$0.0033%+958%0.6%cautela (no operable)$384
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 137.2 ± 44.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0136%+323%1.1%cautela (no operable)$291
80-99$0.04910%+109%1.4%cautela (no operable)$540
100-119$0.08515%+73%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,030
40-59$0.0153%+70%0.3%cautela (no operable)$307
160-179$0.13014%+6%0.2%moderado$1,104
lleva 94 · proyeccion 172.3 ± 33.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0104%+330%0.8%cautela (no operable)$2,826
120-139$0.04811%+122%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,504
160-179$0.16023%+46%2.2%moderado$1,940
140-159$0.16019%+17%0.8%moderado$1,835
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 1 · proyeccion 110.6 ± 24.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0308%+177%1.4%cautela (no operable)$85
lleva 95 · proyeccion 148.5 ± 17.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.02525%+920%5.9%cautela (no operable)$508
140-159$0.33544%+31%3.9%escalable$1,614
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.0%Sobre-dispersion: 3.09x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 82.5 ± 15.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.11013%+20%0.6%moderado$155
80-99$0.40544%+7%1.3%escalable$324
lleva 32 · proyeccion 72.0 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.56562%+10%3.2%escalable$1,239
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 39.9 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.29048%+65%6.7%escalable$2,062
lleva 15 · proyeccion 36.5 ± 7.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.30035%+17%1.8%escalable$2,648
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.6 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0306%+111%0.9%cautela (no operable)$10
20-39$0.35555%+54%7.5%escalable$304
lleva 6 · proyeccion 17.0 ± 7.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.33537%+10%1.3%escalable$2,518
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.3 ± 9.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.04518%+301%3.5%cautela (no operable)$167
15-19$0.03612%+240%2.3%cautela (no operable)$51
20-24$0.0367%+84%0.8%cautela (no operable)$50
35-39$0.0020%+42%0.0%cautela (no operable)$50
5-9$0.19020%+6%0.4%moderado$217
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.8 ± 7.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03215%+353%2.9%cautela (no operable)$2,068
15-19$0.0155%+245%0.9%cautela (no operable)$1,252
20-24$0.0091%+27%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,126