Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.135 57% +319% 12.4% moderado $2,661 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.255 76% +198% 16.9% escalable $31,586 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.105 21% +99% 2.9% moderado $0 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.130 25% +89% 3.3% moderado $0 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.200 36% +79% 4.9% escalable $139 CZ (Binance) <20 $0.240 39% +64% 5.0% escalable $100 The White House 180-199 $0.100 15% +51% 1.4% moderado $250 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.425 61% +44% 8.1% escalable $0 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.135 18% +33% 1.3% moderado $1,677 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.220 29% +32% 2.3% escalable $1,319 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.180 23% +28% 1.5% moderado $901 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.155 20% +27% 1.2% moderado $2,178
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 12,930 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0% Sobre-dispersion: 24.84x 48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 179 · proyeccion 1106.6 ± 151.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.255 76% +198% 16.9% escalable $31,586
lleva 0 · proyeccion 340.5 ± 92.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 8% +3659% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,305 420-439 $0.002 5% +3522% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $5,701 340-359 $0.003 9% +3347% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $3,259 400-419 $0.002 7% +3171% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $2,710 440-459 $0.002 4% +2768% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $10,940 500+ $0.002 4% +2696% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $17,645 360-379 $0.003 8% +2647% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,354 460-479 $0.002 3% +2068% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $10,535 320-339 $0.004 9% +2049% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $9,589 480-499 $0.002 2% +1462% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $11,035 300-319 $0.011 8% +611% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $3,086 280-299 $0.023 7% +223% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $2,674 260-279 $0.049 6% +33% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $471
lleva 17 · proyeccion 235.6 ± 73.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 5% +995% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $20,276 160-179 $0.018 7% +313% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $25,896 380-399 $0.005 1% +125% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $18,199 360-379 $0.009 2% +120% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $10,676 400-419 $0.004 1% +94% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $21,941 340-359 $0.022 3% +46% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $12,406 420-439 $0.003 0% +38% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $14,357 440-459 $0.002 0% +9% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $22,261
lleva 0 · proyeccion 113.7 ± 53.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 14% +7108% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $3,574 165-189 $0.002 9% +6082% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $2,997 115-139 $0.007 18% +2304% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $1,228 90-114 $0.068 18% +169% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $3,200
lleva 118 · proyeccion 192.3 ± 43.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.002 16% +7908% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $191,295 180-199 $0.025 18% +649% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $177,639
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 6,123 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8% Sobre-dispersion: 12.01x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 205.7 ± 49.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 8% +1206% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $55 120-139 $0.009 5% +426% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $35 100-119 $0.011 3% +139% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $25 160-179 $0.074 12% +65% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $177 180-199 $0.100 15% +51% 1.4% moderado $250 80-99 $0.010 1% +8% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $53
lleva 18 · proyeccion 140.1 ± 38.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 15% +2917% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $198 120-139 $0.010 20% +1885% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $275 80-99 $0.005 9% +1656% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $265 60-79 $0.003 4% +1205% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $298 140-159 $0.028 20% +627% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $315 40-59 $0.005 1% +167% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $278
lleva 127 · proyeccion 173.9 ± 23.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.015 32% +2042% 7.8% cautela (no operable) $542 180-199 $0.017 27% +1466% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $2,689
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 5,455 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5% Sobre-dispersion: 13.72x 37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 177.1 ± 49.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.050 6% +27% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $0 200+ $0.260 32% +25% 2.2% escalable $961
lleva 10 · proyeccion 127.1 ± 40.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.009 3% +270% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $647 60-79 $0.034 7% +114% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $455 100-119 $0.135 18% +33% 1.3% moderado $1,677 120-139 $0.155 20% +27% 1.2% moderado $2,178 80-99 $0.104 13% +23% 0.7% moderado $1,540 <20 $0.003 0% +16% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $92
lleva 112 · proyeccion 144.9 ± 21.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.021 5% +127% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $4,472 100-119 $0.049 10% +106% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,881 120-139 $0.262 28% +8% 0.7% escalable $3,965
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 3,584 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.73x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.0 ± 31.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.105 21% +99% 2.9% moderado $0 140-159 $0.130 25% +89% 3.3% moderado $0 180-199 $0.075 12% +62% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 12 · proyeccion 102.4 ± 24.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.015 14% +805% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $133
lleva 65 · proyeccion 99.3 ± 15.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 9% +1732% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $448 80-99 $0.070 41% +483% 9.1% cautela (no operable) $1,104
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 2,432 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 6.63x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 107.6 ± 26.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 3% +454% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $57 120-139 $0.045 21% +371% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $138 160-179 $0.005 2% +309% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $36 140-159 $0.029 9% +206% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $115 100-119 $0.220 29% +32% 2.3% escalable $1,319
lleva 3 · proyeccion 68.5 ± 20.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.010 7% +627% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $659 40-59 $0.073 25% +244% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $449 <20 $0.005 1% +78% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $702 80-99 $0.180 23% +28% 1.5% moderado $901
lleva 51 · proyeccion 73.4 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 12% +2391% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $1,298 60-79 $0.135 57% +319% 12.4% moderado $2,661
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 1,091 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 48.2 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 15% +2676% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $505 40-59 $0.085 63% +639% 14.8% cautela (no operable) $253
lleva 6 · proyeccion 36.4 ± 8.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.200 36% +79% 4.9% escalable $139
lleva 26 · proyeccion 36.0 ± 5.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.038 24% +536% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $1,106
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 658 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0% Sobre-dispersion: 4.34x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.6 ± 11.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.425 61% +44% 8.1% escalable $0 40-59 $0.170 21% +26% 1.3% moderado $0 60-79 $0.005 1% +10% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $10
lleva 3 · proyeccion 21.8 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.240 39% +64% 5.0% escalable $100
lleva 17 · proyeccion 24.5 ± 5.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.050 19% +279% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $1,857
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 158 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0% Sobre-dispersion: 16.61x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.4 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.015 18% +1125% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $105 15-19 $0.011 12% +1079% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $19 10-14 $0.014 16% +1070% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $92 20-24 $0.016 8% +379% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $126 25-29 $0.014 4% +178% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $105 30-34 $0.011 2% +54% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $30 35-39 $0.004 1% +23% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $268
lleva 2 · proyeccion 6.9 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.009 19% +1867% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $369 15-19 $0.011 12% +972% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $400 5-9 $0.075 22% +192% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $190 25-29 $0.015 2% +31% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $318
lleva 3 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 5.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 17% +3256% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $612 15-19 $0.004 4% +871% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $567 5-9 $0.260 32% +22% 1.9% escalable $644
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.