CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-09 02:50 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.16576%+361%17.8%moderado$3,568
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.15541%+162%7.4%moderado$24
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.22047%+112%7.9%escalable$777
Donald Trump200+$0.23544%+86%6.6%escalable$1,010
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.32557%+74%8.9%escalable$22
Elon Musk65-89$0.14525%+72%3.0%moderado$21,550
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.15024%+58%2.5%moderado$4,106
Ted Cruz140-159$0.28043%+53%5.2%escalable$2,464
Donald Trump160-179$0.13520%+50%1.9%moderado$2,316
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.14522%+50%2.1%moderado$331
Ted Cruz120-139$0.17524%+40%2.1%moderado$0
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.43058%+36%6.7%escalable$1,330
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 26% del periodo
lleva 195 · proyeccion 1107.6 ± 152.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.16576%+361%17.8%moderado$3,568
Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 375.7 ± 98.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00210%+6787%2.5%cautela (no operable)$17,644
420-439$0.0027%+4564%1.7%cautela (no operable)$3,969
440-459$0.0026%+3986%1.5%cautela (no operable)$9,584
400-419$0.0038%+2964%1.9%cautela (no operable)$4,829
380-399$0.0048%+2200%1.9%cautela (no operable)$755
360-379$0.0078%+982%1.9%cautela (no operable)$827
340-359$0.0098%+823%1.8%cautela (no operable)$865
320-339$0.0117%+593%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,146
300-319$0.0186%+270%1.2%cautela (no operable)$537
280-299$0.0296%+94%0.7%cautela (no operable)$3,224
Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 43 · proyeccion 265.9 ± 75.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0036%+2193%1.4%cautela (no operable)$31,041
320-339$0.0047%+2017%1.8%cautela (no operable)$27,483
380-399$0.0023%+1755%0.7%cautela (no operable)$33,459
300-319$0.0079%+1091%2.1%cautela (no operable)$21,376
280-299$0.01510%+548%2.2%cautela (no operable)$19,635
100-119$0.0041%+256%0.2%cautela (no operable)$53,194
260-279$0.03511%+205%1.8%cautela (no operable)$10,567
240-259$0.07510%+37%0.8%cautela (no operable)$7,252
120-139$0.0172%+22%0.1%cautela (no operable)$32,900
Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 138.2 ± 59.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00214%+6654%3.3%cautela (no operable)$597
140-164$0.00316%+6389%4.0%cautela (no operable)$582
190-214$0.0029%+4625%2.3%cautela (no operable)$129
240+$0.0024%+2850%1.1%cautela (no operable)$338
215-239$0.0026%+2677%1.3%cautela (no operable)$126
115-139$0.01116%+1458%3.9%cautela (no operable)$80
90-114$0.05014%+177%2.3%cautela (no operable)$258
Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 127 · proyeccion 223.4 ± 49.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0024%+2312%0.9%cautela (no operable)$74,380
280-299$0.0047%+1802%1.6%cautela (no operable)$71,087
320-339$0.0022%+1017%0.4%cautela (no operable)$56,166
260-279$0.01310%+735%2.3%cautela (no operable)$67,623
240-259$0.03514%+292%2.7%cautela (no operable)$61,824
140-159$0.0285%+95%0.7%cautela (no operable)$96,362
220-239$0.09516%+67%1.8%cautela (no operable)$60,184
Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 50% del periodo
lleva 11 · proyeccion 69.2 ± 38.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0023%+1729%0.7%cautela (no operable)$10,827
115-139$0.0059%+1462%2.0%cautela (no operable)$18,831
90-114$0.02418%+647%4.0%cautela (no operable)$26,492
65-89$0.14525%+72%3.0%moderado$21,550
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 185.7 ± 47.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0058%+1417%2.0%cautela (no operable)$102
100-119$0.0055%+743%1.0%cautela (no operable)$92
80-99$0.0052%+292%0.4%cautela (no operable)$129
140-159$0.04013%+218%2.2%cautela (no operable)$248
60-79$0.0051%+52%0.1%cautela (no operable)$159
160-179$0.15016%+6%0.3%moderado$419
White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 33 · proyeccion 150.4 ± 37.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00418%+5065%4.5%cautela (no operable)$361
100-119$0.00412%+3257%2.9%cautela (no operable)$426
140-159$0.01921%+1008%4.9%cautela (no operable)$594
White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 118 · proyeccion 159.8 ± 22.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00415%+3142%3.5%cautela (no operable)$1,667
140-159$0.05331%+490%6.8%cautela (no operable)$4,651
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 191.1 ± 52.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.23544%+86%6.6%escalable$1,010
180-199$0.12515%+21%0.7%moderado$447
160-179$0.12514%+11%0.4%moderado$474
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 47 · proyeccion 157.6 ± 39.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0042%+356%0.4%cautela (no operable)$681
80-99$0.0175%+180%0.8%cautela (no operable)$658
100-119$0.04010%+143%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,218
40-59$0.0031%+118%0.1%cautela (no operable)$633
160-179$0.15519%+22%1.0%moderado$1,292
140-159$0.16019%+21%1.0%moderado$936
180-199$0.13014%+11%0.4%moderado$1,234
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 141 · proyeccion 192.8 ± 27.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0459%+91%1.1%cautela (no operable)$2,796
160-179$0.13520%+50%1.9%moderado$2,316
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 143.9 ± 28.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.09527%+186%4.9%cautela (no operable)$0
120-139$0.17524%+40%2.1%moderado$0
160-179$0.14519%+29%1.2%moderado$0
Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 33 · proyeccion 121.7 ± 22.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.06113%+113%1.8%cautela (no operable)$376
60-79$0.0183%+44%0.2%cautela (no operable)$97
Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 127 · proyeccion 159.6 ± 13.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0117%+474%1.4%cautela (no operable)$886
140-159$0.28043%+53%5.2%escalable$2,464
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.4 ± 18.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.03728%+644%6.3%cautela (no operable)$20
140-159$0.0187%+260%1.2%cautela (no operable)$12
100-119$0.15541%+162%7.4%moderado$24
Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 18 · proyeccion 88.9 ± 14.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.14522%+50%2.1%moderado$331
Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 48 · proyeccion 78.3 ± 9.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.35544%+24%3.2%escalable$2,101
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.1 ± 12.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.07224%+226%4.4%cautela (no operable)$713
40-59$0.43058%+36%6.7%escalable$1,330
NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 9 · proyeccion 38.5 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0082%+154%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,364
40-59$0.39044%+14%2.2%escalable$3,290
NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 24 · proyeccion 35.1 ± 5.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.67578%+15%7.9%escalable$4,663
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.2 ± 12.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.03722%+493%4.8%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.32557%+74%8.9%escalable$22
CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0052%+323%0.5%cautela (no operable)$217
20-39$0.22047%+112%7.9%escalable$777
CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.6 ± 6.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.05518%+221%3.2%cautela (no operable)$2,924
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0052%+317%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.05514%+157%2.3%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0439%+119%1.3%cautela (no operable)$10
25-29$0.0405%+29%0.3%cautela (no operable)$70
10-14$0.14517%+20%0.8%moderado$0
Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.05017%+249%3.2%cautela (no operable)$229
20-24$0.0133%+174%0.6%cautela (no operable)$112
Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0156%+268%1.1%cautela (no operable)$2,398
5-9$0.15024%+58%2.5%moderado$4,106