CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.141	51%	+262%	10.7%	moderado	$1,009
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.345	84%	+144%	18.9%	escalable	$25,127
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.260	49%	+89%	7.8%	escalable	$6,190
Elon Musk	65-89	$0.125	23%	+86%	3.1%	moderado	$9,764
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.535	87%	+62%	17.8%	escalable	$1,153
The White House	180-199	$0.125	16%	+26%	0.9%	moderado	$911
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.560	63%	+12%	3.7%	escalable	$90
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.295	33%	+11%	1.2%	escalable	$683
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.340	37%	+8%	1.0%	escalable	$2,328
Elon Musk	<40	$0.220	23%	+6%	0.4%	escalable	$29,574

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 12,919 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 24.76x48 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026? 16% del periodo

lleva 157 · proyeccion 1156.9 ± 157.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.345	84%	+144%	18.9%	escalable	$25,127

Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 288.2 ± 84.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
380-399	$0.003	5%	+1743%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$11,615
360-379	$0.004	6%	+1598%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$5,238
340-359	$0.005	7%	+1218%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$4,641
320-339	$0.009	8%	+830%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$4,065
400-419	$0.004	3%	+651%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$6,406
300-319	$0.014	9%	+552%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$4,173
420-439	$0.005	2%	+368%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$7,479
280-299	$0.021	9%	+360%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$5,882
500+	$0.002	1%	+312%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$27,812
80-99	$0.003	1%	+140%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$8,363
260-279	$0.043	9%	+114%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$3,375
100-119	$0.005	1%	+103%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$8,376
120-139	$0.011	2%	+48%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$14,623

Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 182.5 ± 67.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
240+	$0.005	20%	+3868%	4.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,135
165-189	$0.005	15%	+2573%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,078
190-214	$0.005	14%	+2473%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,219
140-164	$0.005	13%	+2322%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,078
215-239	$0.005	12%	+2276%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,140
115-139	$0.013	11%	+680%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$58
90-114	$0.050	7%	+45%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$19

Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 96 · proyeccion 239.2 ± 59.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
300-319	$0.004	7%	+1809%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$34,980
320-339	$0.003	4%	+1605%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$21,763
280-299	$0.006	9%	+1340%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$29,785
340-359	$0.003	2%	+873%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$23,426
360-379	$0.002	1%	+728%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$33,503
260-279	$0.021	12%	+472%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$23,984
120-139	$0.004	2%	+452%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$54,044
380-399	$0.002	1%	+278%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$31,302
140-159	$0.019	4%	+122%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$50,062
240-259	$0.080	13%	+64%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$33,469

Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026? 50% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 61.2 ± 38.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
115-139	$0.002	6%	+4121%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$5,853
90-114	$0.011	15%	+1188%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$8,936
165-189	$0.002	0%	+133%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$12,549
65-89	$0.125	23%	+86%	3.1%	moderado	$9,764
<40	$0.220	23%	+6%	0.4%	escalable	$29,574

Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 207 · proyeccion 227.9 ± 22.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
260-279	$0.007	7%	+906%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$153,522
240-259	$0.055	22%	+304%	4.4%	cautela (no operable)	$129,220

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 6,113 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 11.88x32 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 167.8 ± 44.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.005	16%	+2868%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$37
120-139	$0.011	12%	+1023%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$60
80-99	$0.005	4%	+611%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$137
100-119	$0.011	8%	+597%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$70
60-79	$0.004	2%	+367%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$170
160-179	$0.056	18%	+216%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$38
180-199	$0.125	16%	+26%	0.9%	moderado	$911

White House # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 108 · proyeccion 200.3 ± 33.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.009	16%	+1541%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$374
180-199	$0.049	23%	+360%	4.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,563
100-119	$0.002	1%	+208%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$231

White House # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 272 · proyeccion 280.6 ± 10.1

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 5,437 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 13.67x37 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 153.0 ± 45.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.005	3%	+511%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$96
80-99	$0.022	7%	+198%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$0
40-59	$0.011	1%	+21%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$10
100-119	$0.095	11%	+17%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,225

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 93 · proyeccion 161.6 ± 30.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.011	6%	+502%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,358
120-139	$0.070	15%	+117%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,457
80-99	$0.010	2%	+76%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,315

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 152 · proyeccion 160.2 ± 10.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.260	49%	+89%	7.8%	escalable	$6,190

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 3,572 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.7x30 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 123.5 ± 28.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
180-199	$0.005	2%	+294%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$110
60-79	$0.016	5%	+212%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$125
140-159	$0.090	18%	+104%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$130

Ted Cruz # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 52 · proyeccion 119.2 ± 21.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.295	33%	+11%	1.2%	escalable	$683

Ted Cruz # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 104 · proyeccion 110.5 ± 6.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.535	87%	+62%	17.8%	escalable	$1,153

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 2,430 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.59x28 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 95.7 ± 25.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.033	13%	+304%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$86
40-59	$0.037	6%	+66%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$85
140-159	$0.022	4%	+60%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$60
20-39	$0.011	1%	+8%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$65

Zelenskyy # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 48 · proyeccion 100.2 ± 18.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.032	13%	+313%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$333
40-59	$0.005	1%	+146%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$354
100-119	$0.340	37%	+8%	1.0%	escalable	$2,328

Zelenskyy # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 101 · proyeccion 111.0 ± 8.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.070	15%	+111%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$533

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 1,086 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x28 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 40.2 ± 10.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.050	50%	+896%	11.8%	cautela (no operable)	$130
60-79	$0.006	3%	+340%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$204

NYC Mayor # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 20 · proyeccion 39.7 ± 7.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.141	51%	+262%	10.7%	moderado	$1,009

NYC Mayor # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 35 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 2.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.080	11%	+40%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,277

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 654 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0%Sobre-dispersion: 4.35x28 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.7 ± 10.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.040	10%	+138%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$5
20-39	$0.560	63%	+12%	3.7%	escalable	$90

CZ # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 13 · proyeccion 27.3 ± 7.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.032	6%	+96%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$60
<20	$0.095	16%	+69%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,718

CZ # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 23 · proyeccion 25.6 ± 3.4

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 155 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 16.44x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.2 ± 10.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.002	6%	+3834%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$77
5-9	$0.005	19%	+3798%	4.8%	cautela (no operable)	$113
10-14	$0.005	17%	+2925%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$127
15-19	$0.004	11%	+2693%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$160
25-29	$0.004	2%	+513%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$72
30-34	$0.004	1%	+100%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$78
35-39	$0.002	0%	+37%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$59

Khamenei # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 7.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.005	13%	+2582%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$355
15-19	$0.005	5%	+870%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$327
5-9	$0.041	24%	+483%	5.1%	cautela (no operable)	$373
20-24	$0.005	1%	+123%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$511

Khamenei # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.6 ± 3.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
5-9	$0.004	11%	+2380%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,284