CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-08 16:47 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.18078%+331%18.2%moderado$3,556
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.13540%+195%7.6%moderado$12
Ted Cruz140-159$0.19045%+136%8.0%moderado$2,088
Donald Trump200+$0.22051%+133%9.4%escalable$906
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21549%+129%8.8%escalable$777
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.11019%+75%2.3%moderado$286
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.14524%+68%2.9%moderado$4,051
Donald Trump160-179$0.15525%+59%2.7%moderado$2,228
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.36056%+54%7.7%escalable$22
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.31046%+48%5.4%escalable$2,872
The White House160-179$0.10015%+47%1.3%moderado$176
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.13017%+33%1.2%moderado$0
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 189 · proyeccion 1116.2 ± 153.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.18078%+331%18.2%moderado$3,556
lleva 0 · proyeccion 390.2 ± 99.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00214%+9024%3.4%cautela (no operable)$12,024
400-419$0.0028%+5119%1.9%cautela (no operable)$780
420-439$0.0027%+4822%1.8%cautela (no operable)$230
360-379$0.0058%+1320%1.8%cautela (no operable)$482
340-359$0.0097%+673%1.6%cautela (no operable)$563
320-339$0.0117%+477%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,046
380-399$0.0178%+383%1.6%cautela (no operable)$255
300-319$0.0136%+327%1.1%cautela (no operable)$451
280-299$0.0245%+100%0.6%cautela (no operable)$2,456
lleva 37 · proyeccion 274.3 ± 77.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0025%+3140%1.2%cautela (no operable)$26,447
380-399$0.0023%+2194%0.8%cautela (no operable)$33,459
340-359$0.0036%+2042%1.5%cautela (no operable)$28,164
320-339$0.0078%+961%1.8%cautela (no operable)$23,914
100-119$0.0021%+635%0.2%cautela (no operable)$46,562
300-319$0.0159%+496%1.9%cautela (no operable)$16,041
80-99$0.0021%+314%0.1%cautela (no operable)$44,777
280-299$0.03410%+199%1.7%cautela (no operable)$15,570
260-279$0.06910%+49%0.9%cautela (no operable)$7,269
120-139$0.0132%+46%0.1%cautela (no operable)$25,420
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.6 ± 62.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240+$0.0028%+5368%2.0%cautela (no operable)$177
140-164$0.01116%+1342%3.7%cautela (no operable)$552
115-139$0.06515%+125%2.2%cautela (no operable)$50
90-114$0.06011%+91%1.5%cautela (no operable)$40
190-214$0.06112%+91%1.5%cautela (no operable)$87
165-189$0.09415%+56%1.5%cautela (no operable)$562
lleva 121 · proyeccion 231.7 ± 53.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0023%+1774%0.7%cautela (no operable)$49,650
120-139$0.0022%+1502%0.6%cautela (no operable)$110,840
300-319$0.0045%+1053%1.2%cautela (no operable)$66,712
280-299$0.0138%+566%1.8%cautela (no operable)$53,387
260-279$0.03712%+210%2.0%cautela (no operable)$61,706
140-159$0.0175%+177%0.7%cautela (no operable)$78,061
240-259$0.09714%+46%1.2%cautela (no operable)$51,283
lleva 5 · proyeccion 77.5 ± 43.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0025%+2569%1.3%cautela (no operable)$8,793
115-139$0.01312%+862%2.7%cautela (no operable)$12,900
90-114$0.06420%+205%3.5%cautela (no operable)$15,512
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 192.7 ± 48.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0114%+241%0.7%cautela (no operable)$60
80-99$0.0052%+207%0.3%cautela (no operable)$97
120-139$0.0257%+187%1.2%cautela (no operable)$70
140-159$0.04511%+143%1.7%cautela (no operable)$216
160-179$0.10015%+47%1.3%moderado$176
60-79$0.0051%+16%0.0%cautela (no operable)$117
lleva 28 · proyeccion 152.5 ± 38.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00417%+4813%4.2%cautela (no operable)$361
100-119$0.00411%+3083%2.7%cautela (no operable)$426
140-159$0.01820%+1003%4.7%cautela (no operable)$581
lleva 113 · proyeccion 161.9 ± 24.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00414%+2951%3.3%cautela (no operable)$1,627
140-159$0.01528%+1855%6.8%cautela (no operable)$3,896
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 201.1 ± 53.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.22051%+133%9.4%escalable$906
180-199$0.11514%+25%0.8%moderado$261
160-179$0.11012%+13%0.4%moderado$289
lleva 24 · proyeccion 145.0 ± 41.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0031%+486%0.3%cautela (no operable)$453
60-79$0.0074%+446%0.8%cautela (no operable)$451
80-99$0.0258%+213%1.4%cautela (no operable)$578
100-119$0.05113%+160%2.2%cautela (no operable)$1,050
140-159$0.14519%+30%1.3%moderado$805
20-39$0.0040%+28%0.0%cautela (no operable)$3,138
120-139$0.14518%+22%0.9%moderado$1,013
lleva 118 · proyeccion 180.1 ± 30.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0187%+278%1.2%cautela (no operable)$1,900
140-159$0.06016%+164%2.6%cautela (no operable)$2,528
160-179$0.15525%+59%2.7%moderado$2,228
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.0 ± 29.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.05522%+304%4.4%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.09027%+200%4.9%cautela (no operable)$0
180-199$0.04512%+157%1.9%cautela (no operable)$0
200+$0.0255%+84%0.6%cautela (no operable)$40
120-139$0.18521%+12%0.7%moderado$0
lleva 23 · proyeccion 119.0 ± 23.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0184%+114%0.5%cautela (no operable)$97
80-99$0.07516%+107%2.2%cautela (no operable)$376
100-119$0.24031%+29%2.3%escalable$215
lleva 117 · proyeccion 156.9 ± 14.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.01112%+945%2.6%cautela (no operable)$841
140-159$0.19045%+136%8.0%moderado$2,088
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 113.7 ± 18.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.04529%+555%6.5%cautela (no operable)$20
100-119$0.13540%+195%7.6%moderado$12
140-159$0.0348%+125%1.1%cautela (no operable)$12
lleva 15 · proyeccion 87.4 ± 14.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.11019%+75%2.3%moderado$286
40-59$0.0233%+29%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,104
lleva 45 · proyeccion 76.9 ± 9.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0294%+35%0.3%cautela (no operable)$451
80-99$0.34538%+11%1.5%escalable$1,901
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 54.5 ± 12.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.07232%+348%6.8%cautela (no operable)$713
40-59$0.43554%+23%4.5%escalable$1,275
lleva 6 · proyeccion 38.9 ± 9.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.31046%+48%5.4%escalable$2,872
<20$0.0212%+15%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,140
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.5 ± 6.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.25527%+7%0.6%escalable$3,082
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 31.1 ± 13.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.04224%+488%5.3%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.36056%+54%7.7%escalable$22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 20.1 ± 10.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0023%+1994%0.8%cautela (no operable)$172
20-39$0.21549%+129%8.8%escalable$777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 14.4 ± 6.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.08523%+168%3.9%cautela (no operable)$2,733
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.5 ± 11.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.03810%+153%1.5%cautela (no operable)$10
15-19$0.06014%+137%2.2%cautela (no operable)$0
25-29$0.0345%+57%0.5%cautela (no operable)$70
10-14$0.13017%+33%1.2%moderado$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.5 ± 8.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.03210%+198%1.6%cautela (no operable)$83
20-24$0.0134%+197%0.6%cautela (no operable)$82
10-14$0.05917%+193%3.0%cautela (no operable)$199
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2.1 ± 5.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0307%+124%1.0%cautela (no operable)$2,139
5-9$0.14524%+68%2.9%moderado$4,051
15-19$0.0061%+20%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,341