CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-10-07 13:56 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.17076%+349%17.9%moderado$31,170
The White House180-199$0.10427%+158%4.6%moderado$2,046
Ted Cruz160-179$0.10523%+120%3.5%moderado$0
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.18534%+85%4.8%moderado$550
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.21539%+79%5.4%escalable$139
Donald Trump120-139$0.14626%+78%3.3%moderado$3,626
Ted Cruz140-159$0.13023%+73%2.7%moderado$0
CZ (Binance)<20$0.24035%+45%3.6%escalable$100
CZ (Binance)40-59$0.17025%+45%2.3%moderado$0
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.42060%+42%7.6%escalable$0
Donald Trump200+$0.26036%+40%3.5%escalable$961
Donald Trump120-139$0.14519%+33%1.4%moderado$2,178
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 24.84x48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 168 · proyeccion 1109.1 ± 152.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.17076%+349%17.9%moderado$31,170
lleva 0 · proyeccion 354.1 ± 93.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.0026%+3934%1.5%cautela (no operable)$13,382
400-419$0.0037%+2279%1.7%cautela (no operable)$910
340-359$0.0048%+1785%2.0%cautela (no operable)$310
360-379$0.0048%+1762%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,135
320-339$0.0048%+1724%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,984
420-439$0.0046%+1658%1.5%cautela (no operable)$5,701
380-399$0.0048%+1658%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,305
300-319$0.0178%+346%1.5%cautela (no operable)$694
280-299$0.0227%+205%1.1%cautela (no operable)$418
260-279$0.0436%+33%0.4%cautela (no operable)$198
lleva 6 · proyeccion 238.2 ± 75.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0044%+929%0.8%cautela (no operable)$8,837
380-399$0.0021%+871%0.3%cautela (no operable)$14,423
360-379$0.0032%+848%0.5%cautela (no operable)$8,312
320-339$0.0075%+581%1.1%cautela (no operable)$13,070
80-99$0.0032%+523%0.3%cautela (no operable)$30,467
120-139$0.0064%+482%0.8%cautela (no operable)$41,454
100-119$0.0043%+458%0.5%cautela (no operable)$34,431
300-319$0.0167%+322%1.3%cautela (no operable)$15,642
400-419$0.0031%+234%0.1%cautela (no operable)$19,603
280-299$0.0368%+129%1.2%cautela (no operable)$22,069
140-159$0.0335%+64%0.5%cautela (no operable)$13,111
260-279$0.07410%+29%0.6%cautela (no operable)$11,914
lleva 0 · proyeccion 127.3 ± 56.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+7899%4.0%cautela (no operable)$2,986
165-189$0.00212%+7886%3.0%cautela (no operable)$2,310
115-139$0.00918%+1970%4.2%cautela (no operable)$609
90-114$0.03116%+414%3.3%cautela (no operable)$1,778
lleva 107 · proyeccion 194.9 ± 46.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0046%+1745%1.5%cautela (no operable)$182,242
140-159$0.01111%+914%2.4%cautela (no operable)$121,793
280-299$0.0042%+544%0.5%cautela (no operable)$54,593
300-319$0.0021%+485%0.2%cautela (no operable)$66,191
260-279$0.0135%+287%0.9%cautela (no operable)$46,954
160-179$0.08215%+80%1.8%cautela (no operable)$116,809
240-259$0.0519%+68%0.9%cautela (no operable)$68,868
lleva 11 · proyeccion 17.0 ± 12.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 12.01x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 219.8 ± 51.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0056%+1014%1.4%cautela (no operable)$50
160-179$0.02210%+337%1.9%cautela (no operable)$177
120-139$0.0093%+254%0.6%cautela (no operable)$35
180-199$0.08013%+62%1.4%cautela (no operable)$250
100-119$0.0112%+51%0.1%cautela (no operable)$25
lleva 9 · proyeccion 145.1 ± 40.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00518%+3530%4.4%cautela (no operable)$188
100-119$0.00513%+2570%3.2%cautela (no operable)$198
140-159$0.00919%+1944%4.7%cautela (no operable)$293
80-99$0.0058%+1445%1.8%cautela (no operable)$265
60-79$0.0034%+1072%0.8%cautela (no operable)$298
160-179$0.04116%+299%3.2%cautela (no operable)$207
40-59$0.0051%+152%0.2%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 118 · proyeccion 178.9 ± 27.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01027%+2620%6.6%cautela (no operable)$444
180-199$0.10427%+158%4.6%moderado$2,046
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 13.72x37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 182.0 ± 50.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.26036%+40%3.5%escalable$961
100-119$0.0456%+25%0.3%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 7 · proyeccion 129.0 ± 40.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0157%+356%1.4%cautela (no operable)$443
40-59$0.0103%+203%0.5%cautela (no operable)$647
120-139$0.14519%+33%1.4%moderado$2,178
100-119$0.14517%+19%0.8%moderado$1,677
<20$0.0030%+18%0.0%cautela (no operable)$92
80-99$0.10712%+14%0.4%moderado$1,107
lleva 109 · proyeccion 146.8 ± 22.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.01010%+866%2.2%cautela (no operable)$1,852
120-139$0.14626%+78%3.3%moderado$3,626
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.73x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 160.9 ± 32.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.07517%+120%2.4%cautela (no operable)$0
160-179$0.10523%+120%3.5%moderado$0
140-159$0.13023%+73%2.7%moderado$0
200+$0.09512%+26%0.7%cautela (no operable)$10
lleva 11 · proyeccion 111.3 ± 26.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0159%+484%1.8%cautela (no operable)$133
lleva 64 · proyeccion 108.2 ± 17.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0255%+82%0.5%cautela (no operable)$148
80-99$0.20026%+29%1.8%escalable$1,012
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.63x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 114.8 ± 27.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.0054%+685%0.9%cautela (no operable)$36
140-159$0.03113%+329%2.6%cautela (no operable)$101
40-59$0.0052%+251%0.3%cautela (no operable)$57
120-139$0.09525%+160%4.2%cautela (no operable)$124
180-199$0.0051%+54%0.1%cautela (no operable)$36
lleva 2 · proyeccion 74.7 ± 22.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0105%+384%1.0%cautela (no operable)$659
40-59$0.07319%+160%3.1%cautela (no operable)$448
60-79$0.18534%+85%4.8%moderado$550
80-99$0.22528%+26%1.9%escalable$770
<20$0.0051%+13%0.0%cautela (no operable)$702
lleva 50 · proyeccion 79.6 ± 14.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0137%+466%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,178
60-79$0.33042%+28%3.4%escalable$2,044
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 50.8 ± 11.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.00522%+3862%5.3%cautela (no operable)$505
40-59$0.09062%+584%14.4%cautela (no operable)$253
80-99$0.0051%+10%0.0%cautela (no operable)$51
lleva 4 · proyeccion 37.0 ± 9.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.21539%+79%5.4%escalable$139
lleva 24 · proyeccion 36.6 ± 5.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.03930%+678%6.9%cautela (no operable)$1,106
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0%Sobre-dispersion: 4.34x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 31.8 ± 11.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0051%+65%0.1%cautela (no operable)$10
40-59$0.17025%+45%2.3%moderado$0
20-39$0.42060%+42%7.6%escalable$0
lleva 3 · proyeccion 23.0 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.24035%+45%3.6%escalable$100
20-39$0.56561%+8%2.4%escalable$95
lleva 17 · proyeccion 25.7 ± 6.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.05016%+213%2.8%cautela (no operable)$1,847
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 16.61x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.9 ± 11.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.01417%+1130%4.0%cautela (no operable)$105
10-14$0.01416%+1059%3.8%cautela (no operable)$92
15-19$0.02213%+476%2.7%cautela (no operable)$19
20-24$0.0168%+412%1.7%cautela (no operable)$126
25-29$0.0144%+214%0.8%cautela (no operable)$105
lleva 2 · proyeccion 7.3 ± 9.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.00919%+1856%4.5%cautela (no operable)$369
15-19$0.01112%+1035%2.9%cautela (no operable)$400
5-9$0.02521%+756%4.8%cautela (no operable)$164
25-29$0.0152%+69%0.2%cautela (no operable)$318
lleva 3 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 6.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.00518%+3595%4.5%cautela (no operable)$612
15-19$0.0046%+1326%1.5%cautela (no operable)$567
20-24$0.0091%+30%0.1%cautela (no operable)$758
5-9$0.25630%+16%1.4%escalable$644