CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-15 16:31 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.16540%+145%7.2%moderado$1,050
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.13029%+124%4.6%moderado$2,359
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.30554%+76%8.4%escalable$2,199
Ted Cruz160-179$0.27544%+61%5.8%escalable$1,052
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.13020%+54%2.0%moderado$1,408
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.30042%+40%4.3%escalable$4,155
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.39553%+35%5.7%escalable$3,339
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.20525%+20%1.3%escalable$584
Ted Cruz180-199$0.29035%+20%2.0%escalable$373
Donald Trump160-179$0.17019%+11%0.6%moderado$1,520
Ted Cruz120-139$0.27531%+11%1.1%escalable$625
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 347 · proyeccion 988.8 ± 128.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06047%+678%10.8%cautela (no operable)$6,478
960-999$0.02212%+450%2.6%cautela (no operable)$9,396
920-959$0.05312%+117%1.6%cautela (no operable)$4,524
lleva 10 · proyeccion 245.4 ± 77.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0026%+3713%1.4%cautela (no operable)$45,715
300-319$0.0047%+1987%1.7%cautela (no operable)$16,757
280-299$0.0059%+1488%2.1%cautela (no operable)$15,859
260-279$0.01310%+682%2.2%cautela (no operable)$5,590
240-259$0.02310%+345%2.0%cautela (no operable)$5,002
80-99$0.0041%+206%0.2%cautela (no operable)$47,196
220-239$0.07510%+34%0.7%cautela (no operable)$4,784
lleva 109 · proyeccion 218.5 ± 53.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0023%+2224%0.8%cautela (no operable)$54,688
260-279$0.0049%+2006%2.3%cautela (no operable)$60,757
280-299$0.0046%+1442%1.4%cautela (no operable)$60,450
240-259$0.01113%+1105%2.9%cautela (no operable)$52,401
120-139$0.0074%+394%0.7%cautela (no operable)$115,926
220-239$0.04515%+226%2.7%cautela (no operable)$30,564
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 26 · proyeccion 152.4 ± 37.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00521%+4052%5.1%cautela (no operable)$588
120-139$0.00517%+3384%4.2%cautela (no operable)$513
100-119$0.00511%+2127%2.7%cautela (no operable)$551
80-99$0.0045%+1255%1.3%cautela (no operable)$747
60-79$0.0042%+402%0.4%cautela (no operable)$781
160-179$0.05719%+230%3.5%cautela (no operable)$936
lleva 132 · proyeccion 181.8 ± 23.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01229%+2294%7.0%cautela (no operable)$4,424
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 51 · proyeccion 173.2 ± 41.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.08011%+38%0.8%cautela (no operable)$697
160-179$0.17019%+11%0.6%moderado$1,520
lleva 130 · proyeccion 192.7 ± 29.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.09520%+107%2.8%cautela (no operable)$4,463
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 39 · proyeccion 137.0 ± 24.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.27531%+11%1.1%escalable$625
lleva 136 · proyeccion 176.2 ± 15.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0021%+351%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,267
140-159$0.05013%+166%2.2%cautela (no operable)$2,038
160-179$0.27544%+61%5.8%escalable$1,052
180-199$0.29035%+20%2.0%escalable$373
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 8 · proyeccion 79.3 ± 15.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0119%+694%1.9%cautela (no operable)$530
80-99$0.16540%+145%7.2%moderado$1,050
120-139$0.0040%+12%0.0%cautela (no operable)$322
lleva 40 · proyeccion 71.2 ± 10.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.13020%+54%2.0%moderado$1,408
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 37.9 ± 9.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0091%+47%0.1%cautela (no operable)$2,444
<20$0.0213%+43%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,240
40-59$0.30042%+40%4.3%escalable$4,155
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.6 ± 6.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0094%+295%0.7%cautela (no operable)$463
20-39$0.30554%+76%8.4%escalable$2,199
lleva 12 · proyeccion 20.0 ± 6.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.39553%+35%5.7%escalable$3,339
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 7.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0058%+1583%2.0%cautela (no operable)$280
20-24$0.0053%+438%0.6%cautela (no operable)$180
10-14$0.08018%+120%2.6%cautela (no operable)$372
5-9$0.20525%+20%1.3%escalable$584
25-29$0.0051%+15%0.0%cautela (no operable)$130
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 4.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0078%+1001%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,081
15-19$0.0041%+148%0.1%cautela (no operable)$901
5-9$0.13029%+124%4.6%moderado$2,359