CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.135	70%	+422%	16.5%	moderado	$4,281
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.120	36%	+197%	6.7%	moderado	$74
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.165	32%	+94%	4.7%	moderado	$348
Elon Musk	200-219	$0.115	22%	+89%	2.9%	moderado	$113,983
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.315	58%	+85%	9.8%	escalable	$867
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.340	60%	+75%	9.7%	escalable	$2,877
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.110	18%	+60%	1.9%	moderado	$0
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.170	23%	+37%	1.9%	moderado	$216
Donald Trump	200+	$0.215	28%	+29%	2.0%	escalable	$1,147
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.145	18%	+24%	1.0%	moderado	$1,531
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.390	48%	+23%	3.7%	escalable	$3,081
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.210	26%	+23%	1.5%	escalable	$3,764

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,235 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 32% del periodo

lleva 220 · proyeccion 1079.1 ± 148.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.135	70%	+422%	16.5%	moderado	$4,281
960-999	$0.052	9%	+63%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$3,782

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 323.5 ± 90.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
400-419	$0.002	6%	+3638%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$6,386
380-399	$0.003	7%	+2594%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,728
500+	$0.002	3%	+1662%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$20,981
340-359	$0.005	8%	+1428%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,375
360-379	$0.005	8%	+1301%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,313
320-339	$0.009	9%	+928%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,122
300-319	$0.015	9%	+458%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$2,929
280-299	$0.025	8%	+234%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$6,702
260-279	$0.055	7%	+34%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$656
80-99	$0.003	0%	+30%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$14,934

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 68 · proyeccion 239.2 ± 66.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
320-339	$0.002	5%	+3081%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$45,301
300-319	$0.004	7%	+1616%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$40,171
280-299	$0.007	9%	+1103%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$30,142
260-279	$0.017	11%	+556%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$18,156
100-119	$0.004	2%	+346%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$66,678
240-259	$0.045	12%	+164%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$14,369
220-239	$0.095	12%	+25%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$14,082
120-139	$0.026	3%	+16%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$64,620

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 86.5 ± 47.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.003	8%	+3155%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,235
165-189	$0.002	3%	+2194%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,479
115-139	$0.009	15%	+1437%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,101
90-114	$0.037	20%	+437%	4.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,131
65-89	$0.195	21%	+5%	0.3%	moderado	$1,979

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 152 · proyeccion 196.7 ± 33.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.004	9%	+2479%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$207,171
260-279	$0.002	2%	+1528%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$110,447
240-259	$0.004	7%	+1480%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$106,797
220-239	$0.018	15%	+741%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$102,497
200-219	$0.115	22%	+89%	2.9%	moderado	$113,983

Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 36 · proyeccion 42.5 ± 12.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
65-89	$0.007	4%	+524%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$107,422
<40	$0.350	41%	+16%	2.2%	escalable	$134,231

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,354 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.9x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.2 ± 45.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.006	11%	+1780%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$120
100-119	$0.006	7%	+1034%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$120
80-99	$0.005	3%	+515%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$149
140-159	$0.055	15%	+181%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$268
60-79	$0.006	1%	+132%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$169

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 49 · proyeccion 152.9 ± 35.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.003	11%	+4170%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$453
120-139	$0.007	18%	+2480%	4.4%	cautela (no operable)	$656
140-159	$0.030	22%	+631%	5.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,272

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 134 · proyeccion 162.3 ± 18.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.003	10%	+3145%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$3,190
140-159	$0.046	33%	+623%	7.5%	cautela (no operable)	$7,344

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,098 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 170.1 ± 49.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.002	0%	+100%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$567
40-59	$0.004	1%	+91%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$331
200+	$0.215	28%	+29%	2.0%	escalable	$1,147

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 63 · proyeccion 152.6 ± 36.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.008	5%	+509%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,623
60-79	$0.004	2%	+362%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,317
100-119	$0.053	11%	+103%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,710
120-139	$0.145	18%	+24%	1.0%	moderado	$1,531
140-159	$0.180	22%	+21%	1.2%	moderado	$959

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 157 · proyeccion 187.8 ± 21.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.002	8%	+3839%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$4,215
160-179	$0.210	26%	+23%	1.5%	escalable	$3,764

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,493 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 131.4 ± 27.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.170	23%	+37%	1.9%	moderado	$216
60-79	$0.021	2%	+12%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$511

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 45 · proyeccion 121.3 ± 20.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.165	32%	+94%	4.7%	moderado	$348
80-99	$0.098	12%	+26%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$432
120-139	$0.285	35%	+22%	2.1%	escalable	$421
60-79	$0.018	2%	+10%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$124

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 139 · proyeccion 159.2 ± 10.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.002	3%	+1994%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,192
140-159	$0.390	48%	+23%	3.7%	escalable	$3,081

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,652 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 97.8 ± 17.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.120	36%	+197%	6.7%	moderado	$74
120-139	$0.040	10%	+145%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$90

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 20 · proyeccion 76.7 ± 13.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.445	49%	+10%	2.0%	escalable	$1,042
40-59	$0.086	9%	+8%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,323

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 50 · proyeccion 66.1 ± 7.0

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 809 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 46.8 ± 11.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.340	60%	+75%	9.7%	escalable	$2,877
60-79	$0.083	14%	+65%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$811

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.2 ± 8.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.004	1%	+211%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,660
40-59	$0.445	48%	+7%	1.4%	escalable	$4,199

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 29 · proyeccion 35.8 ± 4.4

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 26.8 ± 12.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.010	14%	+1328%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$40
20-39	$0.315	58%	+85%	9.8%	escalable	$867

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 15.8 ± 9.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.065	34%	+424%	7.4%	cautela (no operable)	$854

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 10.2 ± 4.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.006	2%	+314%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$3,211

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.9 ± 10.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
30-34	$0.006	2%	+218%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$12
15-19	$0.080	14%	+74%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$0
10-14	$0.110	18%	+60%	1.9%	moderado	$0
20-24	$0.078	9%	+14%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$12

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.8 ± 8.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.029	17%	+465%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$397
15-19	$0.040	8%	+102%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$206
20-24	$0.013	3%	+100%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$195
25-29	$0.005	1%	+5%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$167

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.4 ± 4.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
5-9	$0.070	20%	+191%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$5,320
10-14	$0.010	3%	+172%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,985