Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.225 41% +82% 5.9% escalable $982 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.325 53% +63% 7.6% escalable $1,325 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.165 25% +49% 2.4% moderado $960 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.275 38% +36% 3.5% escalable $1,458 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.330 45% +35% 4.3% escalable $4,155 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.124 15% +17% 0.6% moderado $501 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.330 38% +16% 1.9% escalable $549 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.295 34% +15% 1.6% escalable $5,592 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.465 53% +15% 3.2% escalable $2,996
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,354 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.71x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 339 · proyeccion 1011.9 ± 131.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.065 54% +727% 12.6% cautela (no operable) $6,419 960-999 $0.033 12% +255% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $9,257 920-959 $0.063 10% +65% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,424
lleva 2 · proyeccion 267.7 ± 82.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.004 7% +1723% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $8,379 360-379 $0.003 5% +1711% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $25,307 340-359 $0.004 6% +1590% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $6,759 300-319 $0.006 8% +1313% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $10,512 80-99 $0.002 1% +535% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $30,505 280-299 $0.015 9% +500% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $10,893 260-279 $0.037 10% +160% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $2,484 240-259 $0.075 9% +25% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $2,059
lleva 101 · proyeccion 240.8 ± 60.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 4% +2888% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $27,171 300-319 $0.003 7% +2666% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $42,512 340-359 $0.002 3% +1634% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $30,670 120-139 $0.002 2% +1501% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $80,302 280-299 $0.006 10% +1370% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $41,823 260-279 $0.021 12% +450% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $42,944 240-259 $0.070 13% +86% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $30,838 140-159 $0.025 4% +65% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $64,190
lleva 49 · proyeccion 78.7 ± 27.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.005 8% +1424% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $49,567 90-114 $0.086 25% +190% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $68,727
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,514 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 15 · proyeccion 151.5 ± 39.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 17% +3340% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $458 140-159 $0.006 20% +3236% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $521 100-119 $0.005 11% +2196% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $484 80-99 $0.005 6% +1091% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $600 160-179 $0.025 18% +610% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $678 60-79 $0.005 2% +380% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $634 20-39 $0.002 0% +22% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $273
lleva 121 · proyeccion 180.9 ± 26.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 15% +2391% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $2,769 160-179 $0.011 27% +2376% 6.6% cautela (no operable) $3,431
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,212 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 138.7 ± 43.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.015 10% +526% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $370 40-59 $0.005 2% +364% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $619 20-39 $0.002 1% +316% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $417 100-119 $0.124 15% +17% 0.6% moderado $501
lleva 84 · proyeccion 158.1 ± 32.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 3% +693% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $4,331 100-119 $0.025 8% +233% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,493 120-139 $0.080 17% +107% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $1,156
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,621 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 120.6 ± 25.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.050 28% +460% 6.1% cautela (no operable) $819
lleva 111 · proyeccion 159.8 ± 17.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 1% +507% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $771 140-159 $0.275 38% +36% 3.5% escalable $1,458 120-139 $0.085 11% +28% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $709 160-179 $0.330 38% +16% 1.9% escalable $549
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,699 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 80.3 ± 15.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.029 11% +264% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $479 120-139 $0.004 1% +82% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $271 80-99 $0.225 41% +82% 5.9% escalable $982
lleva 35 · proyeccion 72.2 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.165 25% +49% 2.4% moderado $960 40-59 $0.095 12% +28% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $120
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 831 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 1 · proyeccion 38.7 ± 10.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 2% +377% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $2,394 40-59 $0.330 45% +35% 4.3% escalable $4,155 <20 $0.026 3% +27% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,228
lleva 17 · proyeccion 36.4 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.003 1% +315% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,231 40-59 $0.295 34% +15% 1.6% escalable $5,592
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.7 ± 10.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 5% +910% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $408 20-39 $0.325 53% +63% 7.6% escalable $1,325
lleva 10 · proyeccion 20.2 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.465 53% +15% 3.2% escalable $2,996
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.4 ± 8.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 11% +2065% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $280 10-14 $0.085 19% +120% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $372
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.1 ± 6.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.009 14% +1584% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $737 15-19 $0.007 4% +382% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $528 20-24 $0.002 0% +213% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $527
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.