Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.260 52% +100% 8.8% escalable $2,354 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.180 35% +96% 5.3% moderado $1,295 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.275 45% +65% 6.2% escalable $3,863 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.185 28% +52% 3.0% moderado $1,199 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.180 26% +44% 2.4% moderado $9,471 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.180 26% +43% 2.4% moderado $682 The White House 160-179 $0.145 20% +41% 1.7% moderado $2,078 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.645 74% +15% 6.9% escalable $1,859 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.410 47% +14% 2.4% escalable $4,976 Elon Musk 140-159 $0.117 12% +7% 0.2% moderado $272,674
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,397 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 382 · proyeccion 956.3 ± 121.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.035 36% +931% 8.4% cautela (no operable) $7,032 960-999 $0.021 13% +528% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $10,780 920-959 $0.050 13% +162% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $5,413 880-919 $0.090 12% +30% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $5,057
lleva 45 · proyeccion 214.7 ± 65.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 9% +5605% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $45,061 280-299 $0.002 6% +4144% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $54,576 240-259 $0.006 10% +1515% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $20,256 220-239 $0.021 12% +474% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $15,566 80-99 $0.005 2% +266% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $86,257 200-219 $0.065 12% +85% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $18,550
lleva 144 · proyeccion 187.8 ± 33.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.002 5% +2918% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $127,676 220-239 $0.006 11% +1745% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $97,196 260-279 $0.002 1% +773% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $108,242 200-219 $0.037 19% +411% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $116,528 140-159 $0.117 12% +7% 0.2% moderado $272,674
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,553 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 48 · proyeccion 153.4 ± 34.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 10% +6837% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $750 140-159 $0.017 23% +1230% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $1,157 160-179 $0.145 20% +41% 1.7% moderado $2,078
lleva 154 · proyeccion 182.8 ± 18.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.007 33% +4598% 8.1% cautela (no operable) $10,162
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 152.2 ± 35.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 5% +1135% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,673 120-139 $0.025 18% +624% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $773 100-119 $0.015 11% +610% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $982 60-79 $0.004 2% +309% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $5,027 140-159 $0.095 22% +131% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $1,904
lleva 141 · proyeccion 171.6 ± 20.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.002 22% +14479% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $6,015 160-179 $0.023 37% +1494% 8.8% cautela (no operable) $7,351
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,670 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 54 · proyeccion 132.1 ± 21.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.057 21% +276% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $1,161 120-139 $0.180 35% +96% 5.3% moderado $1,295
lleva 151 · proyeccion 171.2 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.055 14% +158% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $2,432
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 13.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.006 2% +265% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $591 80-99 $0.185 28% +52% 3.0% moderado $1,199
lleva 49 · proyeccion 64.5 ± 7.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.645 74% +15% 6.9% escalable $1,859 80-99 $0.015 2% +10% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $2,137
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 844 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.0 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +134% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,824 40-59 $0.410 47% +14% 2.4% escalable $4,976
lleva 30 · proyeccion 36.7 ± 4.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.180 26% +44% 2.4% moderado $9,471
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 463 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 20.3 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 2% +182% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $473 20-39 $0.260 52% +100% 8.8% escalable $2,354
lleva 15 · proyeccion 19.0 ± 4.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.275 45% +65% 6.2% escalable $3,863
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 6% +981% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.050 16% +226% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.005 2% +225% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.180 26% +43% 2.4% moderado $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.3 ± 3.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.038 26% +565% 5.7% cautela (no operable) $2,833 10-14 $0.008 3% +298% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,282
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).