CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-10-07 00:50 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.15579%+410%18.8%moderado$30,439
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.16060%+275%13.1%moderado$106
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.12030%+146%5.0%moderado$1,286
Ted Cruz160-179$0.10023%+134%3.7%moderado$0
CZ (Binance)40-59$0.17031%+82%4.2%moderado$0
Donald Trump200+$0.27046%+69%6.4%escalable$865
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.18530%+62%3.5%moderado$279
Ted Cruz140-159$0.13020%+55%2.0%moderado$0
Ted Cruz100-119$0.29041%+41%4.2%escalable$721
Donald Trump120-139$0.13518%+36%1.4%moderado$2,091
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.29340%+36%3.8%escalable$139
Volodymyr Zelenskyy120-139$0.19526%+36%2.2%moderado$93
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 24.8x48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 163 · proyeccion 1123.9 ± 154.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.15579%+410%18.8%moderado$30,439
lleva 0 · proyeccion 373.1 ± 96.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.0029%+6197%2.3%cautela (no operable)$12,722
420-439$0.0047%+1893%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,701
380-399$0.0048%+1714%1.9%cautela (no operable)$10
360-379$0.0058%+1555%1.9%cautela (no operable)$135
400-419$0.0058%+1442%1.8%cautela (no operable)$400
340-359$0.0068%+1239%1.9%cautela (no operable)$310
320-339$0.0097%+779%1.7%cautela (no operable)$832
300-319$0.0177%+292%1.3%cautela (no operable)$552
280-299$0.0216%+171%0.9%cautela (no operable)$84
lleva 1 · proyeccion 251.8 ± 78.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
380-399$0.0022%+1378%0.5%cautela (no operable)$12,715
340-359$0.0045%+1244%1.1%cautela (no operable)$7,412
360-379$0.0033%+1234%0.8%cautela (no operable)$7,413
320-339$0.0056%+1146%1.4%cautela (no operable)$10,488
300-319$0.0098%+810%1.7%cautela (no operable)$10,285
280-299$0.0159%+500%1.9%cautela (no operable)$16,491
400-419$0.0041%+295%0.3%cautela (no operable)$17,502
60-79$0.0021%+254%0.1%cautela (no operable)$22,915
260-279$0.03810%+159%1.6%cautela (no operable)$7,064
80-99$0.0051%+123%0.2%cautela (no operable)$17,296
100-119$0.0152%+38%0.1%cautela (no operable)$25,262
240-259$0.07510%+34%0.7%cautela (no operable)$7,380
lleva 0 · proyeccion 145.9 ± 60.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00414%+3107%3.5%cautela (no operable)$1,959
140-164$0.00516%+2878%4.0%cautela (no operable)$1,845
115-139$0.02816%+470%3.3%cautela (no operable)$175
90-114$0.04013%+220%2.3%cautela (no operable)$490
lleva 102 · proyeccion 208.5 ± 51.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0035%+1411%1.1%cautela (no operable)$44,300
260-279$0.0078%+927%1.8%cautela (no operable)$37,476
300-319$0.0032%+819%0.5%cautela (no operable)$44,810
240-259$0.01911%+478%2.4%cautela (no operable)$53,130
120-139$0.0155%+220%0.8%cautela (no operable)$109,261
220-239$0.04514%+216%2.5%cautela (no operable)$49,457
lleva 6 · proyeccion 30.6 ± 24.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
65-89$0.0128%+536%1.6%cautela (no operable)$47,648
90-114$0.0021%+445%0.2%cautela (no operable)$43,282
40-64$0.20527%+34%2.2%escalable$40,801
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 11.98x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 225.6 ± 52.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 9 · proyeccion 150.9 ± 41.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00517%+3258%4.1%cautela (no operable)$188
100-119$0.00512%+2237%2.8%cautela (no operable)$198
140-159$0.01019%+1815%4.6%cautela (no operable)$293
80-99$0.0056%+1191%1.5%cautela (no operable)$265
60-79$0.0033%+844%0.6%cautela (no operable)$298
160-179$0.02017%+767%3.9%cautela (no operable)$207
40-59$0.0051%+97%0.1%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 118 · proyeccion 184.7 ± 28.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01024%+2306%5.8%cautela (no operable)$423
180-199$0.08727%+212%5.1%cautela (no operable)$1,873
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 13.68x37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 193.8 ± 51.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.27046%+69%6.4%escalable$865
lleva 0 · proyeccion 133.4 ± 42.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0113%+165%0.4%cautela (no operable)$30
120-139$0.13518%+36%1.4%moderado$2,091
60-79$0.0456%+36%0.4%cautela (no operable)$304
100-119$0.13516%+18%0.7%moderado$1,590
lleva 102 · proyeccion 151.2 ± 25.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0119%+736%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,567
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.72x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 168.2 ± 33.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.07519%+157%3.2%cautela (no operable)$0
160-179$0.10023%+134%3.7%moderado$0
200+$0.09518%+86%2.2%cautela (no operable)$10
140-159$0.13020%+55%2.0%moderado$0
lleva 5 · proyeccion 112.6 ± 26.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0159%+468%1.8%cautela (no operable)$133
180-199$0.0051%+16%0.0%cautela (no operable)$110
lleva 58 · proyeccion 109.5 ± 18.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.29041%+41%4.2%escalable$721
60-79$0.0455%+10%0.1%cautela (no operable)$48
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.63x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 121.2 ± 28.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.0057%+1142%1.6%cautela (no operable)$27
140-159$0.04617%+267%3.3%cautela (no operable)$101
180-199$0.0052%+208%0.3%cautela (no operable)$27
40-59$0.0051%+133%0.2%cautela (no operable)$57
60-79$0.0286%+100%0.7%cautela (no operable)$37
120-139$0.19526%+36%2.2%moderado$93
lleva 2 · proyeccion 81.1 ± 22.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00414%+3857%3.4%cautela (no operable)$141
20-39$0.0103%+212%0.5%cautela (no operable)$70
60-79$0.18530%+62%3.5%moderado$279
lleva 50 · proyeccion 85.9 ± 15.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0044%+836%0.9%cautela (no operable)$510
60-79$0.12030%+146%5.0%moderado$1,286
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 52.2 ± 11.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.00526%+5002%6.3%cautela (no operable)$324
40-59$0.16060%+275%13.1%moderado$106
lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.3 ± 9.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.29340%+36%3.8%escalable$139
lleva 23 · proyeccion 36.8 ± 6.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.07333%+349%6.9%cautela (no operable)$1,026
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0%Sobre-dispersion: 4.34x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 34.1 ± 12.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0052%+230%0.3%cautela (no operable)$10
40-59$0.17031%+82%4.2%moderado$0
20-39$0.42056%+33%5.9%escalable$0
lleva 2 · proyeccion 24.2 ± 9.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.24031%+29%2.2%escalable$100
20-39$0.53563%+17%4.8%escalable$95
lleva 16 · proyeccion 27.0 ± 6.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.11014%+27%0.8%moderado$1,841
40-59$0.0323%+10%0.1%cautela (no operable)$80
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 17.11x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.8 ± 11.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.01317%+1162%4.0%cautela (no operable)$105
10-14$0.01316%+1088%3.7%cautela (no operable)$92
15-19$0.01313%+831%2.8%cautela (no operable)$19
20-24$0.0158%+429%1.7%cautela (no operable)$126
25-29$0.0134%+230%0.8%cautela (no operable)$105
30-34$0.0132%+49%0.2%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 9.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0025%+3004%1.1%cautela (no operable)$317
5-9$0.00920%+2294%4.9%cautela (no operable)$114
10-14$0.01016%+1527%3.9%cautela (no operable)$367
15-19$0.01010%+895%2.3%cautela (no operable)$400
25-29$0.0072%+122%0.2%cautela (no operable)$318
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.4 ± 6.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.00513%+2522%3.2%cautela (no operable)$596
5-9$0.03326%+702%5.9%cautela (no operable)$613
15-19$0.0054%+647%0.8%cautela (no operable)$567