CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-11 12:24 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk180-199$0.15537%+141%6.5%moderado$185,741
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.25556%+120%10.3%escalable$1,246
The White House160-179$0.12525%+102%3.6%moderado$2,927
The White House200+$0.35070%+99%13.3%escalable$0
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.26049%+90%7.9%escalable$430
Donald Trump200+$0.34553%+53%7.0%escalable$341
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.11517%+51%1.6%moderado$74
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.36053%+46%6.5%escalable$4,093
Ted Cruz120-139$0.30541%+36%3.9%escalable$601
Ted Cruz100-119$0.20527%+32%2.1%escalable$483
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.12516%+28%1.0%moderado$20
Elon Musk200-219$0.10513%+26%0.8%moderado$29,518
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 236 · proyeccion 1059.2 ± 145.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.07566%+780%15.8%cautela (no operable)$4,775
960-999$0.0229%+319%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,139
920-959$0.0458%+74%0.9%cautela (no operable)$2,621
lleva 0 · proyeccion 415.0 ± 103.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00221%+13632%5.1%cautela (no operable)$677
420-439$0.0028%+5004%1.9%cautela (no operable)$635
440-459$0.0027%+4774%1.8%cautela (no operable)$620
400-419$0.0038%+2988%1.9%cautela (no operable)$563
380-399$0.0038%+2900%1.8%cautela (no operable)$563
360-379$0.0057%+1176%1.6%cautela (no operable)$602
340-359$0.0096%+644%1.4%cautela (no operable)$746
320-339$0.0115%+423%1.1%cautela (no operable)$582
300-319$0.0155%+206%0.8%cautela (no operable)$1,680
280-299$0.0304%+21%0.2%cautela (no operable)$597
lleva 0 · proyeccion 288.4 ± 85.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
380-399$0.0025%+3001%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,920
400-419$0.0023%+2198%0.8%cautela (no operable)$10,795
360-379$0.0046%+1600%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,428
340-359$0.0047%+1501%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,114
320-339$0.0058%+1404%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,212
440-459$0.0022%+973%0.4%cautela (no operable)$11,270
300-319$0.0139%+566%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,738
500+$0.0021%+366%0.1%cautela (no operable)$23,479
280-299$0.0259%+278%1.8%cautela (no operable)$8,560
260-279$0.0459%+101%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,686
80-99$0.0041%+84%0.1%cautela (no operable)$17,995
lleva 0 · proyeccion 177.9 ± 67.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240+$0.00218%+11950%4.5%cautela (no operable)$903
165-189$0.00215%+9698%3.6%cautela (no operable)$571
190-214$0.00214%+9102%3.4%cautela (no operable)$48
140-164$0.00214%+9009%3.4%cautela (no operable)$571
215-239$0.00211%+7445%2.8%cautela (no operable)$819
115-139$0.00911%+1067%2.6%cautela (no operable)$756
90-114$0.0438%+83%0.9%cautela (no operable)$160
lleva 84 · proyeccion 220.6 ± 59.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0037%+2644%1.7%cautela (no operable)$45,001
260-279$0.00410%+2028%2.3%cautela (no operable)$41,717
240-259$0.01112%+1037%2.8%cautela (no operable)$29,885
220-239$0.03313%+309%2.6%cautela (no operable)$22,954
100-119$0.0072%+211%0.4%cautela (no operable)$81,171
200-219$0.10513%+26%0.8%moderado$29,518
lleva 9 · proyeccion 60.9 ± 36.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.00415%+4065%3.6%cautela (no operable)$13,263
115-139$0.0026%+3586%1.4%cautela (no operable)$8,474
65-89$0.04624%+426%5.2%cautela (no operable)$23,480
lleva 168 · proyeccion 178.1 ± 16.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200-219$0.0049%+1818%2.0%cautela (no operable)$242,858
180-199$0.15537%+141%6.5%moderado$185,741
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.81x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 226.2 ± 51.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.35070%+99%13.3%escalable$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 150.6 ± 42.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00417%+4047%4.1%cautela (no operable)$605
100-119$0.00412%+2516%2.8%cautela (no operable)$611
80-99$0.0057%+1240%1.6%cautela (no operable)$634
140-159$0.01519%+1109%4.4%cautela (no operable)$885
60-79$0.0053%+512%0.6%cautela (no operable)$660
160-179$0.15017%+13%0.6%moderado$1,097
lleva 87 · proyeccion 168.8 ± 31.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00512%+2235%2.8%cautela (no operable)$1,157
140-159$0.01021%+1997%5.0%cautela (no operable)$1,880
160-179$0.12525%+102%3.6%moderado$2,927
lleva 172 · proyeccion 178.2 ± 8.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.45555%+20%4.3%escalable$15,609
200+$0.0051%+12%0.0%cautela (no operable)$16,330
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.41x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 203.2 ± 54.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.34553%+53%7.0%escalable$341
60-79$0.0061%+20%0.0%cautela (no operable)$45
lleva 0 · proyeccion 144.3 ± 45.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0032%+727%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,115
60-79$0.0075%+515%1.0%cautela (no operable)$406
20-39$0.0021%+411%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,490
80-99$0.0409%+116%1.2%cautela (no operable)$1,142
120-139$0.13516%+22%0.9%moderado$425
lleva 92 · proyeccion 155.8 ± 30.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0023%+1614%0.6%cautela (no operable)$2,282
100-119$0.0388%+118%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,205
120-139$0.15018%+20%0.9%moderado$2,394
lleva 186 · proyeccion 191.0 ± 8.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 171.8 ± 30.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 115.7 ± 25.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0216%+208%1.1%cautela (no operable)$520
lleva 67 · proyeccion 127.2 ± 18.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0356%+71%0.6%cautela (no operable)$450
120-139$0.30541%+36%3.9%escalable$601
100-119$0.20527%+32%2.1%escalable$483
lleva 161 · proyeccion 165.1 ± 4.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 125.9 ± 19.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.07038%+448%8.4%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.07028%+304%5.7%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.07020%+187%3.5%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 85.4 ± 16.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.11517%+51%1.6%moderado$74
80-99$0.41045%+10%1.7%escalable$252
lleva 32 · proyeccion 76.4 ± 11.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0447%+64%0.8%cautela (no operable)$1,829
lleva 62 · proyeccion 65.8 ± 3.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 60.1 ± 13.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0037%+2692%1.7%cautela (no operable)$431
60-79$0.09045%+396%9.8%cautela (no operable)$738
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.7 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.36053%+46%6.5%escalable$4,093
<20$0.0172%+34%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,592
lleva 19 · proyeccion 39.0 ± 7.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+18%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,660
40-59$0.43547%+9%1.7%escalable$4,424
lleva 34 · proyeccion 35.6 ± 2.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0194%+108%0.5%cautela (no operable)$7,111
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 35.3 ± 13.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00534%+6088%8.4%cautela (no operable)$82
60-79$0.0054%+612%0.8%cautela (no operable)$93
20-39$0.26049%+90%7.9%escalable$430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 23.6 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0068%+1122%1.8%cautela (no operable)$368
20-39$0.25556%+120%10.3%escalable$1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 12.6 ± 8.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.03520%+489%4.4%cautela (no operable)$992
lleva 6 · proyeccion 7.0 ± 2.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.6 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.08515%+73%1.7%cautela (no operable)$20
40-44$0.0061%+35%0.1%cautela (no operable)$72
10-14$0.12516%+28%1.0%moderado$20
20-24$0.09011%+26%0.6%cautela (no operable)$30
35-39$0.0162%+25%0.1%cautela (no operable)$40
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.2 ± 10.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0061%+136%0.2%cautela (no operable)$100
20-24$0.0358%+130%1.2%cautela (no operable)$100
15-19$0.06513%+106%1.8%cautela (no operable)$88
10-14$0.09518%+88%2.3%cautela (no operable)$99
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.1 ± 7.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.06218%+182%3.0%cautela (no operable)$470
15-19$0.0298%+168%1.2%cautela (no operable)$279
20-24$0.0112%+85%0.2%cautela (no operable)$275
5-9$0.23526%+10%0.8%escalable$978
lleva 1 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 3.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.03417%+396%3.5%cautela (no operable)$6,364