CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-08 19:42 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.16577%+365%18.0%moderado$3,561
Ted Cruz140-159$0.11535%+205%6.7%moderado$2,143
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.15540%+161%7.4%moderado$12
Donald Trump200+$0.21549%+127%8.7%escalable$953
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21548%+121%8.3%escalable$777
Donald Trump160-179$0.15026%+72%3.2%moderado$2,228
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.33056%+70%8.7%escalable$22
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.13022%+69%2.6%moderado$318
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.32546%+42%5.0%escalable$3,073
Elon Musk220-239$0.11515%+32%1.1%moderado$56,382
Donald Trump140-159$0.14519%+30%1.3%moderado$815
Ted Cruz160-179$0.35947%+30%4.2%escalable$1,515
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 189 · proyeccion 1111.7 ± 153.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.16577%+365%18.0%moderado$3,561
lleva 0 · proyeccion 385.7 ± 99.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00213%+8287%3.1%cautela (no operable)$12,032
420-439$0.0027%+4754%1.8%cautela (no operable)$3,949
440-459$0.0037%+2512%1.6%cautela (no operable)$9,524
360-379$0.0058%+1340%1.9%cautela (no operable)$482
400-419$0.0068%+1099%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,529
340-359$0.0098%+690%1.7%cautela (no operable)$563
320-339$0.0137%+447%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,046
380-399$0.0178%+386%1.6%cautela (no operable)$255
300-319$0.0136%+360%1.2%cautela (no operable)$451
280-299$0.0305%+68%0.5%cautela (no operable)$3,026
lleva 37 · proyeccion 269.8 ± 77.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0024%+2895%1.1%cautela (no operable)$27,247
340-359$0.0036%+2326%1.5%cautela (no operable)$28,764
380-399$0.0023%+1976%0.7%cautela (no operable)$33,459
320-339$0.0048%+1601%1.8%cautela (no operable)$24,748
300-319$0.0099%+852%2.0%cautela (no operable)$17,173
80-99$0.0021%+355%0.1%cautela (no operable)$44,777
280-299$0.02210%+344%2.0%cautela (no operable)$15,699
100-119$0.0031%+302%0.2%cautela (no operable)$50,961
260-279$0.05210%+96%1.3%cautela (no operable)$9,193
120-139$0.0152%+37%0.1%cautela (no operable)$28,296
lleva 0 · proyeccion 148.1 ± 61.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00416%+4491%3.9%cautela (no operable)$552
240+$0.0027%+4475%1.7%cautela (no operable)$177
165-189$0.00414%+4025%3.5%cautela (no operable)$567
190-214$0.00511%+2105%2.6%cautela (no operable)$99
215-239$0.0057%+1330%1.7%cautela (no operable)$96
115-139$0.01515%+880%3.5%cautela (no operable)$50
90-114$0.06512%+88%1.5%cautela (no operable)$40
lleva 121 · proyeccion 227.2 ± 52.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0024%+2121%1.1%cautela (no operable)$71,846
120-139$0.0023%+1686%0.6%cautela (no operable)$118,033
320-339$0.0022%+1413%0.5%cautela (no operable)$54,616
280-299$0.0068%+1056%1.7%cautela (no operable)$56,033
260-279$0.01511%+609%2.4%cautela (no operable)$65,566
240-259$0.05014%+178%2.3%cautela (no operable)$59,020
140-159$0.0365%+41%0.4%cautela (no operable)$86,309
220-239$0.11515%+32%1.1%moderado$56,382
lleva 5 · proyeccion 73.0 ± 41.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0024%+2655%1.0%cautela (no operable)$9,833
115-139$0.00710%+1393%2.5%cautela (no operable)$16,424
90-114$0.03619%+411%3.9%cautela (no operable)$17,141
65-89$0.20523%+14%0.9%escalable$11,106
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 190.0 ± 47.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0158%+385%1.5%cautela (no operable)$70
100-119$0.0114%+288%0.8%cautela (no operable)$60
80-99$0.0052%+237%0.3%cautela (no operable)$97
140-159$0.03812%+207%2.0%cautela (no operable)$216
60-79$0.0051%+29%0.0%cautela (no operable)$117
160-179$0.12515%+22%0.8%moderado$176
lleva 32 · proyeccion 153.7 ± 38.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00417%+4757%4.2%cautela (no operable)$361
100-119$0.00411%+2967%2.6%cautela (no operable)$426
140-159$0.01921%+955%4.8%cautela (no operable)$581
160-179$0.17019%+12%0.6%moderado$678
lleva 117 · proyeccion 163.1 ± 23.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00413%+2696%3.0%cautela (no operable)$1,627
140-159$0.01228%+2250%6.8%cautela (no operable)$3,896
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.9 ± 53.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.21549%+127%8.7%escalable$953
180-199$0.11515%+27%0.9%moderado$278
160-179$0.11513%+12%0.4%moderado$305
lleva 25 · proyeccion 142.8 ± 41.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0098%+838%1.9%cautela (no operable)$588
60-79$0.0054%+714%0.9%cautela (no operable)$461
40-59$0.0032%+523%0.3%cautela (no operable)$463
100-119$0.08014%+75%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,060
20-39$0.0040%+35%0.0%cautela (no operable)$3,163
140-159$0.14519%+30%1.3%moderado$815
120-139$0.16018%+14%0.7%moderado$1,043
lleva 119 · proyeccion 178.0 ± 29.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0167%+345%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,950
140-159$0.07517%+126%2.6%cautela (no operable)$2,572
160-179$0.15026%+72%3.2%moderado$2,228
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 149.4 ± 28.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.05522%+291%4.2%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.09027%+202%5.0%cautela (no operable)$0
180-199$0.04511%+138%1.6%cautela (no operable)$0
200+$0.0254%+61%0.4%cautela (no operable)$40
120-139$0.18522%+17%0.9%moderado$0
lleva 31 · proyeccion 125.2 ± 22.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.04511%+137%1.6%cautela (no operable)$376
100-119$0.21027%+29%1.9%escalable$215
60-79$0.0182%+15%0.1%cautela (no operable)$97
120-139$0.30533%+9%1.0%escalable$288
lleva 125 · proyeccion 163.1 ± 14.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0115%+363%1.0%cautela (no operable)$841
140-159$0.11535%+205%6.7%moderado$2,143
160-179$0.35947%+30%4.2%escalable$1,515
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.6 ± 18.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.15540%+161%7.4%moderado$12
140-159$0.0357%+96%0.9%cautela (no operable)$12
120-139$0.25028%+12%1.0%escalable$20
lleva 18 · proyeccion 89.1 ± 14.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.13022%+69%2.6%moderado$318
lleva 48 · proyeccion 78.5 ± 9.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.36544%+22%3.1%escalable$1,960
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.6 ± 12.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.06530%+359%6.2%cautela (no operable)$713
40-59$0.42555%+30%5.5%escalable$1,275
lleva 7 · proyeccion 38.9 ± 9.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0102%+120%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,140
40-59$0.32546%+42%5.0%escalable$3,073
lleva 22 · proyeccion 35.5 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.68073%+7%3.9%escalable$4,289
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.5 ± 12.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.04023%+475%5.0%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.33056%+70%8.7%escalable$22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.5 ± 10.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0053%+372%0.5%cautela (no operable)$187
20-39$0.21548%+121%8.3%escalable$777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.9 ± 6.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.07019%+177%3.3%cautela (no operable)$2,893
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+284%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12
20-24$0.0409%+136%1.4%cautela (no operable)$10
15-19$0.06014%+136%2.2%cautela (no operable)$0
10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$0
25-29$0.0475%+10%0.1%cautela (no operable)$70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 8.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0299%+222%1.6%cautela (no operable)$83
10-14$0.05917%+196%3.0%cautela (no operable)$199
20-24$0.0133%+176%0.6%cautela (no operable)$82
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.07524%+216%4.4%cautela (no operable)$4,106
10-14$0.0296%+96%0.7%cautela (no operable)$2,367