Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.195 43% +118% 7.2% moderado $591 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.250 49% +95% 7.9% escalable $3,863 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.435 80% +83% 16.0% escalable $4,827 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.325 55% +68% 8.2% escalable $1,228 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.190 31% +61% 3.6% moderado $553 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.105 16% +48% 1.4% moderado $1,662 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.275 40% +45% 4.3% escalable $1,210 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.660 95% +44% 21.2% escalable $9,115 Elon Musk 40-64 $0.115 16% +43% 1.4% moderado $54,133 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.101 14% +37% 1.0% moderado $476 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.340 42% +23% 3.0% escalable $5,592 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.475 57% +19% 4.4% escalable $2,969
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,349 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.65x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 335 · proyeccion 1022.4 ± 132.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.065 57% +774% 13.5% cautela (no operable) $6,419 960-999 $0.033 11% +244% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $9,257 920-959 $0.063 10% +57% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $4,424
lleva 0 · proyeccion 279.9 ± 84.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 3% +1854% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $4,229 360-379 $0.004 5% +1438% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $5,274 380-399 $0.003 4% +1262% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $3,680 320-339 $0.006 8% +1119% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $6,205 340-359 $0.006 7% +933% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $4,902 300-319 $0.013 9% +607% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $8,440 280-299 $0.023 9% +306% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $7,918 500+ $0.002 0% +218% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $21,717 80-99 $0.003 1% +205% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $25,697 260-279 $0.045 9% +107% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,684 100-119 $0.009 1% +32% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $36,750
lleva 97 · proyeccion 250.7 ± 62.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.004 8% +1721% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $37,918 320-339 $0.004 6% +1556% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $24,234 340-359 $0.003 4% +1384% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $27,097 120-139 $0.002 2% +1230% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $76,350 280-299 $0.011 10% +811% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $33,387 260-279 $0.033 12% +272% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $35,092 140-159 $0.009 3% +267% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $52,507 240-259 $0.115 13% +10% 0.3% moderado $25,146
lleva 45 · proyeccion 88.6 ± 33.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 5% +3397% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $22,256 115-139 $0.028 16% +455% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $41,287 40-64 $0.115 16% +43% 1.4% moderado $54,133
lleva 183 · proyeccion 185.3 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200-219 $0.011 3% +200% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $381,646
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,505 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.29x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 147.6 ± 40.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 18% +3095% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $449 100-119 $0.005 13% +2196% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $475 80-99 $0.005 7% +1203% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $591 140-159 $0.015 19% +1147% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $519 60-79 $0.005 3% +485% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $625 160-179 $0.065 17% +159% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $675
lleva 105 · proyeccion 176.0 ± 28.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 18% +2690% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $2,654 160-179 $0.016 27% +1582% 6.4% cautela (no operable) $3,265
lleva 202 · proyeccion 204.1 ± 4.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,207 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 141.2 ± 44.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 5% +670% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $128 40-59 $0.005 2% +350% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $590 80-99 $0.030 9% +201% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $369 20-39 $0.004 1% +108% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $417 100-119 $0.101 14% +37% 1.0% moderado $476
lleva 77 · proyeccion 158.7 ± 34.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 3% +593% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $3,574 60-79 $0.003 1% +231% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,907 120-139 $0.065 16% +149% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $1,093 180-199 $0.105 16% +48% 1.4% moderado $1,662 100-119 $0.061 8% +38% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,488
lleva 171 · proyeccion 172.3 ± 4.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.660 95% +44% 21.2% escalable $9,115
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,607 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 114.1 ± 26.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 7% +1397% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $29 40-59 $0.004 2% +310% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $399 80-99 $0.075 20% +161% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $77
lleva 88 · proyeccion 144.5 ± 18.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.003 1% +137% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $646 100-119 $0.040 8% +100% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $571 120-139 $0.190 31% +61% 3.6% moderado $553 140-159 $0.275 40% +45% 4.3% escalable $1,210
lleva 156 · proyeccion 157.2 ± 2.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.435 80% +83% 16.0% escalable $4,827
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,696 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 3.1x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 81.9 ± 15.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 1% +158% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $271 80-99 $0.195 43% +118% 7.2% moderado $591 100-119 $0.079 13% +59% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $479
lleva 32 · proyeccion 73.7 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.075 10% +40% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $75 80-99 $0.245 29% +19% 1.6% escalable $899
lleva 64 · proyeccion 65.0 ± 1.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 829 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 40.2 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.250 49% +95% 7.9% escalable $3,863
lleva 16 · proyeccion 37.9 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.006 1% +79% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $3,231 40-59 $0.340 42% +23% 3.0% escalable $5,592
lleva 35 · proyeccion 35.4 ± 1.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.5 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 6% +484% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.325 55% +68% 8.2% escalable $1,228
lleva 10 · proyeccion 21.0 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.475 57% +19% 4.4% escalable $2,969
lleva 10 · proyeccion 10.5 ± 1.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.5 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.050 13% +158% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $170 10-14 $0.085 19% +124% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $325
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 7.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.017 18% +957% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $529 15-19 $0.011 7% +590% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $321 20-24 $0.005 2% +257% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $320
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.4 ± 2.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.005 17% +3047% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $1,451
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).