Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.165 77% +364% 18.0% moderado $3,492 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.150 36% +139% 6.1% moderado $115 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.300 48% +60% 6.4% escalable $1,857 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.365 54% +48% 7.0% escalable $0 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.355 52% +46% 6.4% escalable $754 Donald Trump 200+ $0.385 54% +40% 6.3% escalable $0 The White House 200+ $0.360 48% +34% 4.8% escalable $0 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.105 13% +28% 0.8% moderado $174 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.195 24% +26% 1.6% moderado $2,158 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.150 19% +25% 1.1% moderado $356 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.335 40% +21% 2.6% escalable $2,808 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.270 32% +20% 1.9% escalable $195
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,180 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 170 · proyeccion 1111.9 ± 155.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.165 77% +364% 18.0% moderado $3,492
lleva 0 · proyeccion 404.8 ± 101.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.003 18% +5765% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $200 460-479 $0.003 6% +2461% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $100 440-459 $0.003 7% +2271% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $12 480-499 $0.003 6% +1748% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $100 340-359 $0.007 7% +801% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $187 360-379 $0.011 7% +602% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $50 400-419 $0.016 8% +389% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $50 320-339 $0.013 6% +377% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $175 420-439 $0.016 8% +375% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $12 300-319 $0.021 5% +147% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $194 380-399 $0.035 8% +121% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $50 280-299 $0.035 4% +18% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $143
lleva 18 · proyeccion 269.9 ± 80.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.002 5% +2204% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $15,386 380-399 $0.002 3% +2090% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $21,323 340-359 $0.003 6% +1926% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $21,118 320-339 $0.004 8% +1575% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $8,084 400-419 $0.002 2% +1367% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $12,053 300-319 $0.012 9% +632% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $10,326 280-299 $0.025 10% +293% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $12,092 80-99 $0.003 1% +168% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $35,551 100-119 $0.007 1% +81% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $33,217 260-279 $0.055 10% +80% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,675 240-259 $0.085 10% +13% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $3,517
lleva 102 · proyeccion 227.4 ± 56.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 3% +1766% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $37,463 300-319 $0.004 5% +1313% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $49,882 280-299 $0.007 8% +1003% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $44,002 340-359 $0.002 1% +833% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $37,768 260-279 $0.015 11% +588% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $52,554 120-139 $0.005 3% +481% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $72,833 240-259 $0.032 13% +313% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $35,279 220-239 $0.095 14% +48% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $37,054
lleva 0 · proyeccion 87.2 ± 47.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 8% +5438% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $3,305 165-189 $0.002 4% +2271% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $7,069 115-139 $0.010 15% +1375% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $5,189 90-114 $0.045 20% +342% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $3,123
lleva 36 · proyeccion 49.9 ± 18.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 65-89 $0.015 20% +1194% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $57,019
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,326 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.3 ± 48.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.006 1% +139% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $17 200+ $0.360 48% +34% 4.8% escalable $0
lleva 21 · proyeccion 150.1 ± 39.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 18% +5754% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $346 100-119 $0.004 12% +3301% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $426 140-159 $0.025 20% +688% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $581 160-179 $0.165 18% +8% 0.4% moderado $658
lleva 106 · proyeccion 159.5 ± 25.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 16% +4398% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $1,029 100-119 $0.002 5% +3092% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $463 140-159 $0.043 29% +572% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $2,710
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,052 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.8 ± 54.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.385 54% +40% 6.3% escalable $0
lleva 18 · proyeccion 142.8 ± 42.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 2% +248% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $361 60-79 $0.023 4% +87% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $325 100-119 $0.076 14% +81% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,044 80-99 $0.056 9% +53% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $567 20-39 $0.004 1% +41% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $981
lleva 112 · proyeccion 178.0 ± 30.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.065 17% +159% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $2,456 120-139 $0.033 8% +138% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,517 160-179 $0.195 24% +26% 1.6% moderado $2,158 180-199 $0.210 24% +13% 0.9% escalable $2,627
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,467 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.1 ± 29.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 18 · proyeccion 115.2 ± 23.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.030 5% +77% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $97 80-99 $0.150 19% +25% 1.1% moderado $356 100-119 $0.270 32% +20% 1.9% escalable $195
lleva 112 · proyeccion 153.1 ± 15.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.031 17% +452% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $569 140-159 $0.300 48% +60% 6.4% escalable $1,857
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,637 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.2 ± 19.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.050 35% +600% 7.9% cautela (no operable) $0 100-119 $0.070 35% +407% 7.7% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 5 · proyeccion 83.0 ± 15.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.105 13% +28% 0.8% moderado $174
lleva 35 · proyeccion 72.5 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.215 25% +16% 1.1% escalable $1,733 40-59 $0.100 11% +12% 0.3% moderado $356
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 798 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5% Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 56.0 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.150 36% +139% 6.1% moderado $115 80-99 $0.021 3% +58% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.026 4% +41% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,125 40-59 $0.335 40% +21% 2.6% escalable $2,808
lleva 18 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 6.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.2 ± 13.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.016 27% +1591% 6.5% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.365 54% +48% 7.0% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.2 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.355 52% +46% 6.4% escalable $754
lleva 6 · proyeccion 15.6 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.265 29% +10% 0.9% escalable $2,575
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.7 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 35-39 $0.011 1% +32% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.013 6% +350% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $82 10-14 $0.061 18% +193% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $199 15-19 $0.041 12% +182% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $83
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 6.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 3% +424% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,311 10-14 $0.032 12% +294% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $2,109
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.