Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.215 79% +265% 18.2% escalable $3,421 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.355 56% +57% 7.8% escalable $260 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.155 23% +46% 2.1% moderado $1,935 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.175 26% +46% 2.5% moderado $16,916 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.145 21% +43% 1.8% moderado $2,304 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.240 31% +29% 2.3% escalable $155 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.355 44% +25% 3.4% escalable $319 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.125 15% +23% 0.8% moderado $155 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.125 14% +15% 0.5% moderado $1,086 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.440 51% +15% 2.9% escalable $2,062 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.310 35% +13% 1.5% escalable $2,635 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.165 18% +9% 0.4% moderado $1,829
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,164 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4% Sobre-dispersion: 25.57x 39 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 149 · proyeccion 1124.3 ± 157.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.215 79% +265% 18.2% escalable $3,421
lleva 0 · proyeccion 284.2 ± 85.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 3% +2023% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $5,402 380-399 $0.003 4% +1647% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $3,565 420-439 $0.002 2% +1366% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $4,268 360-379 $0.005 6% +931% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $2,263 320-339 $0.011 8% +638% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,293 340-359 $0.011 7% +564% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,344 300-319 $0.018 9% +383% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $3,500 500+ $0.002 1% +285% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $23,700 280-299 $0.034 9% +174% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,433 80-99 $0.003 1% +132% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $20,147 260-279 $0.065 9% +42% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,844 100-119 $0.010 1% +16% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $6,196
lleva 81 · proyeccion 238.3 ± 63.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.004 4% +1182% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $28,385 300-319 $0.005 7% +1118% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $35,928 340-359 $0.003 3% +989% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $28,035 360-379 $0.002 2% +898% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $23,832 280-299 $0.011 9% +688% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $29,140 380-399 $0.002 1% +397% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $26,378 260-279 $0.022 11% +394% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $27,635 240-259 $0.045 12% +174% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $23,464 120-139 $0.013 3% +116% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $55,308 220-239 $0.115 12% +8% 0.3% moderado $22,756
lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.1 ± 55.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 10% +6848% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $788 140-164 $0.003 15% +5917% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $825 115-139 $0.015 18% +1045% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $3,389 90-114 $0.055 17% +211% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $1,820
lleva 15 · proyeccion 60.8 ± 34.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.002 5% +3059% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $35,735 90-114 $0.015 14% +818% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $28,798 65-89 $0.175 26% +46% 2.5% moderado $16,916
lleva 184 · proyeccion 188.2 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200-219 $0.085 14% +62% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $257,153
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,300 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.6% Sobre-dispersion: 12.38x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 146.9 ± 42.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.004 13% +3528% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $335 120-139 $0.005 17% +3315% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $270 80-99 $0.006 8% +1070% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $294 140-159 $0.018 18% +900% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $260 60-79 $0.005 4% +635% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $282
lleva 80 · proyeccion 151.4 ± 29.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 20% +3958% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $375 140-159 $0.016 26% +1543% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $884 80-99 $0.002 3% +1533% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $384 100-119 $0.006 10% +1458% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $455
lleva 180 · proyeccion 183.4 ± 6.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,034 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 140.7 ± 45.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 5% +835% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $271 40-59 $0.005 2% +326% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $289 80-99 $0.043 9% +114% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $517 20-39 $0.004 1% +96% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $272 160-179 $0.125 14% +15% 0.5% moderado $1,086 <20 $0.003 0% +9% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,132
lleva 92 · proyeccion 173.9 ± 34.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.012 4% +247% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $2,781 120-139 $0.040 10% +155% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,395 160-179 $0.155 23% +46% 2.1% moderado $1,935 180-199 $0.145 21% +43% 1.8% moderado $2,304 140-159 $0.165 18% +9% 0.4% moderado $1,829
lleva 213 · proyeccion 215.0 ± 5.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,447 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.5 ± 25.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.051 8% +51% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $65 100-119 $0.240 31% +29% 2.3% escalable $155
lleva 90 · proyeccion 146.5 ± 17.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.060 28% +372% 5.9% cautela (no operable) $458 140-159 $0.400 42% +6% 0.9% escalable $1,421
lleva 137 · proyeccion 138.8 ± 3.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.557 59% +6% 1.8% escalable $4,628
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,632 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.9% Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 84.0 ± 16.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.355 44% +25% 3.4% escalable $319 100-119 $0.125 15% +23% 0.8% moderado $155
lleva 30 · proyeccion 73.3 ± 11.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.560 59% +5% 1.7% escalable $1,061
lleva 69 · proyeccion 71.2 ± 2.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 794 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 40.9 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.025 4% +71% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,373 40-59 $0.440 51% +15% 2.9% escalable $2,062 <20 $0.024 3% +7% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $793
lleva 14 · proyeccion 36.5 ± 8.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.310 35% +13% 1.5% escalable $2,635
lleva 32 · proyeccion 32.8 ± 1.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 23.2 ± 11.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.355 56% +57% 7.8% escalable $260 40-59 $0.048 7% +52% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $10
lleva 6 · proyeccion 17.6 ± 7.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 18 · proyeccion 18.6 ± 1.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.050 30% +497% 6.5% cautela (no operable) $6,414
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.9 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.035 13% +276% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $21 20-24 $0.026 8% +188% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $20 25-29 $0.017 3% +112% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $30 10-14 $0.085 18% +111% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $138
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.5 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 7% +985% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,214 10-14 $0.032 16% +402% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $2,068 20-24 $0.009 2% +128% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,126 25-29 $0.004 0% +12% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,117
lleva 7 · proyeccion 7.4 ± 2.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.046 20% +324% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $3,620
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).