Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.105 28% +171% 5.0% moderado $2,503 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.210 47% +126% 8.4% escalable $1,075 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.200 37% +86% 5.4% escalable $1,588 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.285 51% +80% 8.0% escalable $1,224 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.305 51% +69% 7.5% escalable $2,252 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.245 33% +34% 2.7% escalable $626 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.340 44% +29% 3.8% escalable $4,155 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.380 48% +26% 4.0% escalable $3,368 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.205 25% +22% 1.4% escalable $584 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.165 20% +20% 1.0% moderado $1,645
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,381 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 366 · proyeccion 993.1 ± 126.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 48% +700% 11.2% cautela (no operable) $6,628 960-999 $0.025 12% +389% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $9,620 920-959 $0.051 11% +123% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $4,695
lleva 29 · proyeccion 250.0 ± 75.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 8% +3776% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $42,631 320-339 $0.003 6% +2329% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $52,000 340-359 $0.002 4% +2118% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $38,231 280-299 $0.004 9% +1950% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $29,425 260-279 $0.011 10% +790% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $11,338 240-259 $0.032 11% +230% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $8,011 80-99 $0.004 1% +214% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $57,563 220-239 $0.075 10% +36% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $7,274 100-119 $0.016 2% +17% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $69,420
lleva 128 · proyeccion 223.2 ± 49.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 7% +4291% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $76,943 300-319 $0.002 4% +2266% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $72,128 260-279 $0.004 10% +2210% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $71,397 240-259 $0.016 14% +772% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $78,011 140-159 $0.019 5% +174% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $145,769 220-239 $0.070 16% +126% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $54,362
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,543 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 35 · proyeccion 154.2 ± 36.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 17% +3029% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $563 80-99 $0.003 5% +1799% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $750 100-119 $0.005 10% +1798% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $601 140-159 $0.013 21% +1535% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $666 160-179 $0.029 20% +567% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $976 60-79 $0.003 2% +547% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $784
lleva 141 · proyeccion 183.6 ± 22.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.017 29% +1604% 6.9% cautela (no operable) $5,512
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 173.2 ± 39.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.075 11% +46% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $704 100-119 $0.040 6% +43% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $748 160-179 $0.165 20% +20% 1.0% moderado $1,645
lleva 141 · proyeccion 192.7 ± 27.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 9% +1217% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $3,329 160-179 $0.060 20% +238% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $4,858
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,659 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 43 · proyeccion 133.6 ± 23.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.245 33% +34% 2.7% escalable $626
lleva 140 · proyeccion 172.7 ± 14.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.050 16% +227% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $2,066 160-179 $0.285 51% +80% 8.0% escalable $1,224
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,711 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 15 · proyeccion 84.7 ± 15.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 15% +1342% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $562 120-139 $0.004 1% +148% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $322 80-99 $0.210 47% +126% 8.4% escalable $1,075
lleva 47 · proyeccion 76.6 ± 9.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 1% +210% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $276 40-59 $0.017 4% +141% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,224 80-99 $0.200 37% +86% 5.4% escalable $1,588
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 839 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 9 · proyeccion 38.3 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.011 2% +79% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,436 40-59 $0.340 44% +29% 3.8% escalable $4,155
lleva 25 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 5.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 460 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.009 3% +199% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.305 51% +69% 7.5% escalable $2,252
lleva 12 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.380 48% +26% 4.0% escalable $3,368
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 8% +1313% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 2% +318% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $180 10-14 $0.080 17% +115% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $372 5-9 $0.205 25% +22% 1.4% escalable $584
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.006 6% +900% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,152 5-9 $0.105 28% +171% 5.0% moderado $2,503 15-19 $0.002 0% +142% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $972
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).