Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol The White House 180-199 $0.165 39% +134% 6.6% moderado $14,012 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 52% +78% 8.0% escalable $3,783 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.315 55% +74% 8.6% escalable $1,223 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.470 78% +65% 14.4% escalable $7,439 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.275 45% +63% 6.0% escalable $584 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.400 59% +48% 8.0% escalable $4,814 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.120 17% +46% 1.6% moderado $46 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.275 40% +44% 4.1% escalable $1,140 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.475 58% +22% 4.9% escalable $2,969 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.290 33% +15% 1.5% escalable $899 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.116 13% +14% 0.4% moderado $451 Elon Musk 90-114 $0.239 27% +12% 0.9% escalable $43,835
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,349 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.65x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 334 · proyeccion 1026.7 ± 133.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.070 58% +730% 13.7% cautela (no operable) $6,419 960-999 $0.033 11% +240% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $9,257 920-959 $0.074 10% +30% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $4,349
lleva 0 · proyeccion 285.2 ± 85.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 3% +2068% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $4,229 380-399 $0.003 4% +1676% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $3,680 360-379 $0.004 6% +1540% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5,274 340-359 $0.005 7% +1177% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,277 320-339 $0.006 8% +1153% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $6,205 300-319 $0.013 9% +615% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $8,149 500+ $0.002 1% +307% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $20,530 280-299 $0.025 9% +279% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $7,478 80-99 $0.003 1% +175% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $25,040 260-279 $0.045 9% +103% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,684
lleva 96 · proyeccion 255.0 ± 63.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 4% +2702% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $24,701 320-339 $0.003 6% +2435% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $23,094 300-319 $0.005 9% +1477% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $37,138 120-139 $0.002 2% +1121% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $75,138 280-299 $0.011 11% +836% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $33,008 260-279 $0.036 12% +232% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $31,481 140-159 $0.022 3% +43% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $39,825 240-259 $0.115 12% +8% 0.3% moderado $23,658
lleva 44 · proyeccion 92.9 ± 35.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 7% +4742% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $22,006 165-189 $0.002 2% +1131% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $21,400 115-139 $0.028 18% +543% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $30,534 90-114 $0.239 27% +12% 0.9% escalable $43,835
lleva 182 · proyeccion 189.6 ± 14.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.003 2% +546% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $263,394 200-219 $0.049 22% +361% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $351,663
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,500 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.27x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.5 ± 41.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 16% +2882% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $449 100-119 $0.005 11% +1946% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $475 140-159 $0.015 19% +1168% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $474 80-99 $0.005 6% +1018% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $591 60-79 $0.005 3% +386% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $625 160-179 $0.070 18% +151% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $675
lleva 98 · proyeccion 173.8 ± 29.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 19% +2851% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $2,654 160-179 $0.011 26% +2422% 6.4% cautela (no operable) $3,177
lleva 195 · proyeccion 202.0 ± 8.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.165 39% +134% 6.6% moderado $14,012
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,205 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 143.9 ± 45.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 5% +611% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $123 80-99 $0.017 9% +420% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $364 40-59 $0.005 2% +310% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $585 20-39 $0.004 1% +67% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $417 100-119 $0.116 13% +14% 0.4% moderado $451
lleva 75 · proyeccion 159.3 ± 34.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 3% +601% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $3,574 60-79 $0.004 1% +92% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,907 120-139 $0.096 16% +65% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,093 100-119 $0.061 8% +36% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,488
lleva 169 · proyeccion 172.9 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.470 78% +65% 14.4% escalable $7,439
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,605 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 117.2 ± 26.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 6% +1156% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $18 40-59 $0.004 1% +192% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $388 80-99 $0.120 17% +46% 1.6% moderado $46 120-139 $0.250 27% +6% 0.5% escalable $228
lleva 86 · proyeccion 145.6 ± 18.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.003 1% +140% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $646 100-119 $0.040 8% +92% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $561 140-159 $0.275 40% +44% 4.1% escalable $1,140
lleva 154 · proyeccion 158.3 ± 5.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.400 59% +48% 8.0% escalable $4,814
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,694 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 3.09x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 85.4 ± 16.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 2% +401% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $271 100-119 $0.041 18% +332% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $452 80-99 $0.275 45% +63% 6.0% escalable $584
lleva 30 · proyeccion 75.0 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.075 9% +24% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $65 80-99 $0.290 33% +15% 1.5% escalable $899
lleva 62 · proyeccion 66.3 ± 3.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 827 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.3 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 52% +78% 8.0% escalable $3,783
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.012 2% +83% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,176 40-59 $0.310 34% +8% 0.9% escalable $5,592
lleva 32 · proyeccion 33.5 ± 2.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.7 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 6% +518% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.315 55% +74% 8.6% escalable $1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 21.2 ± 7.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.475 58% +22% 4.9% escalable $2,969
lleva 10 · proyeccion 10.7 ± 2.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.6 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.050 13% +157% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.085 19% +124% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $325
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 7.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.023 18% +687% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $499 15-19 $0.016 7% +366% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $321 20-24 $0.005 2% +277% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $320
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.5 ± 2.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.016 20% +1135% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $1,446
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).