CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.115	28%	+148%	4.8%	moderado	$2,503
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.200	47%	+137%	8.6%	escalable	$1,075
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.210	37%	+77%	5.1%	escalable	$1,588
Ted Cruz	160-179	$0.285	49%	+71%	7.1%	escalable	$1,173
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.305	52%	+70%	7.7%	escalable	$2,252
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.250	32%	+28%	2.3%	escalable	$626
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.330	42%	+26%	3.2%	escalable	$4,155
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.155	19%	+24%	1.1%	moderado	$1,550
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.395	49%	+24%	3.9%	escalable	$3,364
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.205	25%	+22%	1.4%	escalable	$584
The White House	180-199	$0.305	33%	+9%	1.0%	escalable	$10,126

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,363 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 48% del periodo

lleva 355 · proyeccion 987.9 ± 127.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.060	46%	+673%	10.7%	cautela (no operable)	$6,478
960-999	$0.025	12%	+389%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$9,540
920-959	$0.069	12%	+70%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$4,615

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 245.2 ± 76.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
320-339	$0.002	6%	+3691%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$51,658
300-319	$0.003	7%	+2343%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$42,411
280-299	$0.004	9%	+1861%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$29,424
260-279	$0.009	10%	+944%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$10,627
240-259	$0.023	10%	+353%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,441
80-99	$0.005	1%	+139%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$55,333
220-239	$0.055	10%	+86%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$5,950

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 117 · proyeccion 218.4 ± 50.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
280-299	$0.002	6%	+3862%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$76,239
300-319	$0.002	3%	+2037%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$72,001
260-279	$0.004	9%	+2003%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$69,800
240-259	$0.011	13%	+1025%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$69,603
220-239	$0.047	15%	+223%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$48,211
120-139	$0.013	3%	+177%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$142,144

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,534 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 33 · proyeccion 154.3 ± 37.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.005	21%	+4112%	5.2%	cautela (no operable)	$588
120-139	$0.005	17%	+3315%	4.2%	cautela (no operable)	$563
80-99	$0.002	5%	+2298%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$747
100-119	$0.005	10%	+1986%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$601
60-79	$0.002	2%	+731%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$781
160-179	$0.028	20%	+599%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$976

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 139 · proyeccion 183.7 ± 22.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.015	28%	+1796%	6.8%	cautela (no operable)	$5,512
180-199	$0.305	33%	+9%	1.0%	escalable	$10,126

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,261 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x30 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 62 · proyeccion 176.8 ± 40.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.070	10%	+43%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$697
100-119	$0.040	5%	+27%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$628
160-179	$0.155	19%	+24%	1.1%	moderado	$1,550

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 141 · proyeccion 196.2 ± 28.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.040	18%	+351%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$4,617
140-159	$0.040	7%	+84%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$3,063

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,655 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 41 · proyeccion 134.6 ± 23.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.250	32%	+28%	2.3%	escalable	$626

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 138 · proyeccion 173.8 ± 14.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.002	1%	+380%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,267
140-159	$0.050	16%	+211%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$2,060
160-179	$0.285	49%	+71%	7.1%	escalable	$1,173

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,711 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 15 · proyeccion 84.7 ± 15.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.011	15%	+1342%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$562
120-139	$0.004	1%	+183%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$322
80-99	$0.200	47%	+137%	8.6%	escalable	$1,075

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 47 · proyeccion 76.6 ± 9.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.003	1%	+210%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$276
40-59	$0.017	4%	+141%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,191
80-99	$0.210	37%	+77%	5.1%	escalable	$1,588

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 835 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 7 · proyeccion 37.8 ± 9.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.005	1%	+84%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$2,474
40-59	$0.330	42%	+26%	3.2%	escalable	$4,155
<20	$0.021	3%	+19%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,240

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 23 · proyeccion 35.5 ± 6.0

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 460 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 2 · proyeccion 20.7 ± 10.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.009	3%	+230%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$463
20-39	$0.305	52%	+70%	7.7%	escalable	$2,252

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 12 · proyeccion 19.3 ± 6.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.395	49%	+24%	3.9%	escalable	$3,364

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.005	8%	+1454%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$280
20-24	$0.005	2%	+360%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$180
10-14	$0.080	17%	+115%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$372
5-9	$0.205	25%	+22%	1.4%	escalable	$584

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.006	6%	+900%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,152
5-9	$0.115	28%	+148%	4.8%	moderado	$2,503
15-19	$0.002	0%	+142%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$972