CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-09 00:37 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.16577%+364%18.0%moderado$3,568
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.15541%+162%7.4%moderado$24
Ted Cruz140-159$0.17545%+156%8.2%moderado$2,297
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.22047%+112%7.9%escalable$777
Donald Trump200+$0.23545%+90%6.9%escalable$1,010
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.12524%+89%3.2%moderado$4,106
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.33056%+71%8.8%escalable$22
Donald Trump160-179$0.16027%+67%3.2%moderado$2,296
Elon Musk65-89$0.15524%+58%2.7%moderado$18,365
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.32547%+46%5.5%escalable$3,129
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.15022%+45%2.0%moderado$331
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.31044%+41%4.7%escalable$2,021
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 26% del periodo
lleva 194 · proyeccion 1110.3 ± 153.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.16577%+364%18.0%moderado$3,568
Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 379.3 ± 98.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00211%+7304%2.7%cautela (no operable)$17,252
420-439$0.0027%+4638%1.7%cautela (no operable)$3,969
400-419$0.0038%+2988%1.9%cautela (no operable)$4,829
380-399$0.0048%+2199%1.9%cautela (no operable)$755
360-379$0.0078%+973%1.8%cautela (no operable)$827
340-359$0.0098%+809%1.7%cautela (no operable)$865
320-339$0.0117%+578%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,146
300-319$0.0186%+260%1.2%cautela (no operable)$537
280-299$0.0245%+123%0.8%cautela (no operable)$3,149
Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 42 · proyeccion 268.4 ± 76.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0024%+2797%1.1%cautela (no operable)$29,807
340-359$0.0036%+2277%1.4%cautela (no operable)$29,841
380-399$0.0023%+1878%0.7%cautela (no operable)$33,459
320-339$0.0048%+1586%1.8%cautela (no operable)$26,883
300-319$0.0099%+964%2.1%cautela (no operable)$20,699
100-119$0.0021%+697%0.3%cautela (no operable)$51,601
280-299$0.01710%+510%2.1%cautela (no operable)$17,849
260-279$0.04010%+165%1.7%cautela (no operable)$9,688
120-139$0.0132%+60%0.2%cautela (no operable)$31,276
240-259$0.08510%+19%0.5%cautela (no operable)$7,066
Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 141.7 ± 60.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00214%+6843%3.4%cautela (no operable)$597
140-164$0.00316%+6387%4.0%cautela (no operable)$582
190-214$0.00210%+4915%2.5%cautela (no operable)$129
240+$0.0025%+3370%1.3%cautela (no operable)$338
215-239$0.0026%+2956%1.5%cautela (no operable)$126
115-139$0.01116%+1422%3.8%cautela (no operable)$80
90-114$0.05513%+141%2.1%cautela (no operable)$258
Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 126 · proyeccion 225.8 ± 50.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0024%+2602%1.0%cautela (no operable)$73,980
320-339$0.0022%+1210%0.5%cautela (no operable)$55,246
280-299$0.0057%+1203%1.7%cautela (no operable)$57,460
260-279$0.01511%+649%2.4%cautela (no operable)$66,650
140-159$0.0145%+263%0.9%cautela (no operable)$93,994
240-259$0.04314%+231%2.6%cautela (no operable)$61,451
220-239$0.11516%+36%1.2%moderado$59,077
Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 50% del periodo
lleva 10 · proyeccion 71.6 ± 39.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0023%+2168%0.8%cautela (no operable)$10,758
115-139$0.00610%+1384%2.3%cautela (no operable)$18,758
90-114$0.02819%+577%4.1%cautela (no operable)$25,649
65-89$0.15524%+58%2.7%moderado$18,365
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 186.7 ± 47.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0118%+676%1.8%cautela (no operable)$70
100-119$0.0114%+309%0.9%cautela (no operable)$60
80-99$0.0052%+278%0.4%cautela (no operable)$97
140-159$0.03812%+225%2.2%cautela (no operable)$216
60-79$0.0051%+47%0.1%cautela (no operable)$127
160-179$0.13516%+16%0.6%moderado$387
White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 33 · proyeccion 151.4 ± 37.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00418%+4979%4.4%cautela (no operable)$361
100-119$0.00411%+3169%2.8%cautela (no operable)$426
140-159$0.01921%+974%4.8%cautela (no operable)$589
White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 118 · proyeccion 160.8 ± 22.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00414%+2995%3.4%cautela (no operable)$1,627
140-159$0.02530%+1093%7.2%cautela (no operable)$4,155
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 192.5 ± 52.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.23545%+90%6.9%escalable$1,010
180-199$0.12515%+20%0.7%moderado$447
160-179$0.12514%+10%0.3%moderado$474
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 31 · proyeccion 143.4 ± 40.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0021%+814%0.3%cautela (no operable)$633
60-79$0.0044%+739%0.8%cautela (no operable)$681
80-99$0.0248%+247%1.5%cautela (no operable)$658
100-119$0.07014%+98%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,130
20-39$0.0030%+56%0.0%cautela (no operable)$5,641
120-139$0.17018%+9%0.5%moderado$1,229
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 125 · proyeccion 178.5 ± 27.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0066%+956%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,001
140-159$0.07517%+122%2.5%cautela (no operable)$2,678
160-179$0.16027%+67%3.2%moderado$2,296
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 144.9 ± 28.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.05519%+249%3.6%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.09027%+203%5.0%cautela (no operable)$0
180-199$0.0458%+87%1.0%cautela (no operable)$0
120-139$0.17524%+37%1.9%moderado$0
200+$0.0253%+6%0.0%cautela (no operable)$40
Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 31 · proyeccion 120.6 ± 22.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.07114%+96%1.8%cautela (no operable)$376
60-79$0.0183%+64%0.3%cautela (no operable)$97
Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 125 · proyeccion 158.5 ± 13.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0118%+621%1.7%cautela (no operable)$841
140-159$0.17545%+156%8.2%moderado$2,297
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.4 ± 18.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.03728%+644%6.3%cautela (no operable)$20
140-159$0.0197%+250%1.2%cautela (no operable)$12
100-119$0.15541%+162%7.4%moderado$24
Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 18 · proyeccion 88.9 ± 14.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.15022%+45%2.0%moderado$331
Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 48 · proyeccion 78.3 ± 9.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.31044%+41%4.7%escalable$2,021
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.9 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.06526%+293%5.1%cautela (no operable)$713
40-59$0.43057%+34%6.3%escalable$1,330
NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 9 · proyeccion 39.3 ± 9.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0082%+122%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,140
40-59$0.32547%+46%5.5%escalable$3,129
NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 24 · proyeccion 35.9 ± 5.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.67073%+9%4.5%escalable$4,663
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.2 ± 12.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.02922%+684%5.0%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.33056%+71%8.8%escalable$22
CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.3 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0052%+330%0.5%cautela (no operable)$217
20-39$0.22047%+112%7.9%escalable$777
CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.6 ± 6.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.05518%+225%3.3%cautela (no operable)$2,924
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+282%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12
20-24$0.0409%+139%1.4%cautela (no operable)$10
15-19$0.06014%+136%2.2%cautela (no operable)$0
25-29$0.0405%+29%0.3%cautela (no operable)$70
10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$0
Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.05417%+220%3.1%cautela (no operable)$229
15-19$0.0299%+210%1.6%cautela (no operable)$113
20-24$0.0133%+174%0.6%cautela (no operable)$112
Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0156%+280%1.1%cautela (no operable)$2,398
5-9$0.12524%+89%3.2%moderado$4,106