CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-16 05:56 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.11028%+159%4.9%moderado$2,532
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.21047%+126%8.4%escalable$1,075
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.20037%+86%5.4%escalable$1,588
Ted Cruz160-179$0.30053%+77%8.3%escalable$1,492
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.30551%+68%7.5%escalable$2,252
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.34547%+37%4.8%escalable$4,155
Ted Cruz120-139$0.26033%+28%2.5%escalable$626
Donald Trump160-179$0.16020%+25%1.2%moderado$1,663
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.39548%+21%3.4%escalable$3,439
Donald Trump140-159$0.15517%+10%0.5%moderado$1,200
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.23025%+9%0.7%escalable$634
Donald Trump180-199$0.27529%+6%0.6%escalable$3,160
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 367 · proyeccion 989.3 ± 126.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06047%+680%10.8%cautela (no operable)$6,657
960-999$0.02513%+392%2.6%cautela (no operable)$9,620
920-959$0.05012%+133%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,695
lleva 30 · proyeccion 246.3 ± 74.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0037%+2888%1.8%cautela (no operable)$42,688
340-359$0.0024%+2641%1.0%cautela (no operable)$38,794
320-339$0.0036%+2198%1.4%cautela (no operable)$52,057
280-299$0.0049%+1909%2.2%cautela (no operable)$31,007
260-279$0.01110%+826%2.3%cautela (no operable)$11,724
240-259$0.03311%+229%1.9%cautela (no operable)$8,134
80-99$0.0041%+161%0.2%cautela (no operable)$59,681
220-239$0.06510%+60%1.1%cautela (no operable)$7,478
lleva 129 · proyeccion 219.4 ± 48.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0026%+3760%1.4%cautela (no operable)$79,003
260-279$0.00310%+3119%2.4%cautela (no operable)$74,323
300-319$0.0023%+1852%0.7%cautela (no operable)$76,188
240-259$0.01014%+1258%3.2%cautela (no operable)$80,202
220-239$0.04616%+250%3.0%cautela (no operable)$56,747
140-159$0.0296%+104%0.8%cautela (no operable)$151,022
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 35 · proyeccion 153.3 ± 36.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00518%+3085%4.3%cautela (no operable)$563
80-99$0.0035%+1866%1.2%cautela (no operable)$750
100-119$0.00511%+1851%2.6%cautela (no operable)$601
140-159$0.01121%+1845%5.1%cautela (no operable)$671
160-179$0.02920%+586%4.3%cautela (no operable)$976
60-79$0.0032%+573%0.4%cautela (no operable)$784
lleva 141 · proyeccion 182.7 ± 21.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.05130%+485%6.5%cautela (no operable)$5,512
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 171.7 ± 39.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0346%+77%0.7%cautela (no operable)$750
120-139$0.06511%+76%1.3%cautela (no operable)$704
160-179$0.16020%+25%1.2%moderado$1,663
140-159$0.15517%+10%0.5%moderado$1,200
60-79$0.0071%+7%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,518
lleva 141 · proyeccion 191.2 ± 26.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0059%+1560%2.2%cautela (no operable)$3,529
160-179$0.07521%+184%3.7%cautela (no operable)$5,029
180-199$0.27529%+6%0.6%escalable$3,160
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 43 · proyeccion 132.0 ± 23.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.26033%+28%2.5%escalable$626
lleva 140 · proyeccion 171.2 ± 13.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.04519%+315%3.7%cautela (no operable)$2,066
160-179$0.30053%+77%8.3%escalable$1,492
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 15 · proyeccion 84.7 ± 15.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.01515%+910%3.5%cautela (no operable)$562
120-139$0.0041%+148%0.1%cautela (no operable)$322
80-99$0.21047%+126%8.4%escalable$1,075
lleva 47 · proyeccion 76.6 ± 9.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0031%+210%0.2%cautela (no operable)$276
40-59$0.0174%+141%0.6%cautela (no operable)$1,224
80-99$0.20037%+86%5.4%escalable$1,588
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 10 · proyeccion 39.1 ± 9.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.34547%+37%4.8%escalable$4,155
<20$0.0132%+20%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,436
lleva 26 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 5.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 20.5 ± 9.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0133%+106%0.4%cautela (no operable)$463
20-39$0.30551%+68%7.5%escalable$2,252
lleva 12 · proyeccion 19.1 ± 6.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.39548%+21%3.4%escalable$3,439
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0058%+1313%1.8%cautela (no operable)$280
20-24$0.0052%+318%0.4%cautela (no operable)$180
10-14$0.06017%+187%3.0%cautela (no operable)$400
5-9$0.23025%+9%0.7%escalable$634
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0046%+1525%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,162
5-9$0.11028%+159%4.9%moderado$2,532
15-19$0.0020%+142%0.1%cautela (no operable)$982