Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.220 58% +164% 11.6% escalable $1,081 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.205 53% +160% 10.3% escalable $2,267 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.125 29% +130% 4.7% moderado $2,937 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.115 24% +112% 3.6% moderado $2,540 Elon Musk 180-199 $0.105 22% +108% 3.2% moderado $152,179 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 60% +106% 10.8% escalable $2,957 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.200 36% +82% 5.2% escalable $89 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $325 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.155 25% +60% 2.7% moderado $30 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.110 17% +58% 1.8% moderado $951 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.310 44% +44% 4.9% escalable $817 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.112 15% +32% 1.0% moderado $1,941
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,300 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.66x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 286 · proyeccion 1020.1 ± 137.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.050 56% +1019% 13.4% cautela (no operable) $5,161 960-999 $0.026 11% +327% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $8,638 920-959 $0.053 10% +82% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,038 880-919 $0.070 8% +13% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,385
lleva 0 · proyeccion 326.6 ± 91.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 6% +3756% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,514 360-379 $0.003 8% +3019% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,940 420-439 $0.002 5% +2992% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,678 500+ $0.002 3% +1867% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $17,359 380-399 $0.004 7% +1865% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,410 340-359 $0.005 8% +1433% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,792 320-339 $0.006 9% +1349% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,976 300-319 $0.009 9% +906% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $3,634 280-299 $0.021 8% +291% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,061 260-279 $0.045 7% +59% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,540
lleva 48 · proyeccion 248.5 ± 71.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 4% +2662% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $15,163 320-339 $0.003 6% +2255% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $14,230 360-379 $0.002 3% +1699% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $19,488 300-319 $0.006 8% +1091% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $25,243 280-299 $0.009 9% +1009% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $22,846 380-399 $0.002 2% +985% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $21,251 260-279 $0.015 11% +633% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $14,784 100-119 $0.006 2% +164% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $44,955 240-259 $0.045 11% +146% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $9,640 220-239 $0.085 11% +26% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $8,480
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.4 ± 48.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 9% +3584% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $9,872 165-189 $0.002 4% +2713% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $8,240 115-139 $0.006 15% +2276% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $9,004 90-114 $0.028 20% +611% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $15,087
lleva 134 · proyeccion 183.1 ± 35.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 7% +4768% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $323,428 220-239 $0.003 10% +3765% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $132,770 240-259 $0.002 4% +2595% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $167,599 200-219 $0.018 17% +842% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $137,490 180-199 $0.105 22% +108% 3.2% moderado $152,179
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,465 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.5x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 177.0 ± 45.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 6% +961% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $160 80-99 $0.005 3% +402% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $276 120-139 $0.021 10% +396% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $154 140-159 $0.033 15% +350% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $150 60-79 $0.005 1% +95% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $306 160-179 $0.090 17% +92% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $286
lleva 63 · proyeccion 163.7 ± 34.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.002 21% +14053% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $2,515 160-179 $0.015 23% +1472% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $2,828
lleva 160 · proyeccion 191.8 ± 19.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.011 21% +1938% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $5,262 180-199 $0.340 40% +16% 2.1% escalable $10,769
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,181 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5% Sobre-dispersion: 14.27x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 161.1 ± 47.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +663% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $484 60-79 $0.006 3% +321% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $100 200+ $0.175 21% +21% 1.1% moderado $674 120-139 $0.120 13% +11% 0.4% moderado $103
lleva 51 · proyeccion 152.5 ± 38.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 2% +575% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,867 100-119 $0.036 11% +208% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,361 80-99 $0.021 5% +152% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,648 40-59 $0.004 1% +65% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,502 120-139 $0.110 17% +58% 1.8% moderado $951
lleva 145 · proyeccion 166.2 ± 17.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.125 29% +130% 4.7% moderado $2,937 160-179 $0.375 43% +14% 2.1% escalable $3,266
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,576 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.48x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 134.3 ± 27.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.155 25% +60% 2.7% moderado $30 120-139 $0.230 28% +23% 1.7% escalable $30 160-179 $0.105 13% +22% 0.7% moderado $30
lleva 57 · proyeccion 134.1 ± 20.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.095 19% +102% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $533 120-139 $0.200 36% +82% 5.2% escalable $89 60-79 $0.003 0% +27% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $893 140-159 $0.270 29% +7% 0.6% escalable $1,041
lleva 125 · proyeccion 146.9 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.115 24% +112% 3.6% moderado $2,540
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,681 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 98.6 ± 17.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 11% +861% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $266 100-119 $0.066 36% +456% 8.0% cautela (no operable) $447 140-159 $0.005 1% +84% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $291 80-99 $0.325 38% +18% 2.2% escalable $532
lleva 22 · proyeccion 80.1 ± 13.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.046 7% +57% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $160 80-99 $0.310 44% +44% 4.9% escalable $817
lleva 54 · proyeccion 71.4 ± 7.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.055 14% +146% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $1,665 40-59 $0.046 5% +11% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $4,371
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 822 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.3 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 60% +106% 10.8% escalable $2,957 60-79 $0.112 15% +32% 1.0% moderado $1,941
lleva 8 · proyeccion 37.0 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.015 3% +97% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $2,912 40-59 $0.295 39% +31% 3.3% escalable $5,174
lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.5 ± 4.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.135 14% +7% 0.3% moderado $6,810
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 453 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3% Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.2 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 15% +1284% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.220 58% +164% 11.6% escalable $1,081
lleva 5 · proyeccion 20.7 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.205 53% +160% 10.3% escalable $2,267
lleva 5 · proyeccion 10.3 ± 5.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.011 4% +276% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,020
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.3 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.050 14% +187% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $40 20-24 $0.051 9% +81% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $30 10-14 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $325 25-29 $0.043 5% +13% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 8.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.005 4% +768% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $281 10-14 $0.034 18% +440% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $319 15-19 $0.024 10% +344% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $272
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 5.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.021 10% +346% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $637 5-9 $0.065 29% +343% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $1,280
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).