Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.185 37% +102% 5.8% moderado $1,149 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.180 35% +93% 5.1% moderado $1,169 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.260 50% +92% 8.1% escalable $2,260 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.315 42% +32% 3.7% escalable $3,776 The White House 160-179 $0.150 20% +31% 1.4% moderado $2,071 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.485 61% +25% 5.8% escalable $2,262 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.395 47% +19% 3.1% escalable $4,698 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.235 26% +9% 0.7% escalable $682 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 20-39 $0.695 73% +6% 3.2% escalable $13,864
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,394 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 380 · proyeccion 965.8 ± 122.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.035 39% +1019% 9.2% cautela (no operable) $7,017 960-999 $0.021 13% +500% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $10,765 920-959 $0.045 13% +179% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $5,151 880-919 $0.065 11% +73% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $4,795
lleva 43 · proyeccion 224.0 ± 68.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 7% +4816% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $48,781 300-319 $0.002 5% +3456% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $50,734 260-279 $0.004 9% +1979% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $22,823 240-259 $0.011 11% +847% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $15,479 80-99 $0.004 2% +381% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $81,342 220-239 $0.030 12% +282% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $12,507 200-219 $0.075 11% +52% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $16,595
lleva 142 · proyeccion 197.1 ± 37.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.003 8% +3146% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $102,676 260-279 $0.002 3% +2180% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $88,274 220-239 $0.013 15% +1068% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $88,767 200-219 $0.075 20% +165% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $91,543 140-159 $0.089 10% +7% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $237,435
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,553 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 45 · proyeccion 151.0 ± 34.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 11% +7442% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $750 140-159 $0.026 23% +772% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $1,112 160-179 $0.150 20% +31% 1.4% moderado $2,071
lleva 151 · proyeccion 180.4 ± 18.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.043 35% +723% 8.1% cautela (no operable) $9,335
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 154.2 ± 36.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 5% +819% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,673 100-119 $0.014 10% +640% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $982 120-139 $0.024 17% +639% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $761 140-159 $0.090 22% +140% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,884
lleva 141 · proyeccion 173.6 ± 21.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.040 35% +779% 8.1% cautela (no operable) $6,743
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,669 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 54 · proyeccion 133.3 ± 21.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.061 20% +230% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $1,113 120-139 $0.180 35% +93% 5.1% moderado $1,169
lleva 151 · proyeccion 172.5 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.060 12% +108% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $2,372 160-179 $0.485 61% +25% 5.8% escalable $2,262
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 76.9 ± 13.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 5% +377% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $569 80-99 $0.185 37% +102% 5.8% moderado $1,149
lleva 49 · proyeccion 68.7 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.038 9% +127% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,951 40-59 $0.098 12% +26% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,088
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 844 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.0 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.006 1% +72% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,824 40-59 $0.395 47% +19% 3.1% escalable $4,698
lleva 30 · proyeccion 36.8 ± 4.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.695 73% +6% 3.2% escalable $13,864
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 462 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 19.9 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.260 50% +92% 8.1% escalable $2,260 40-59 $0.011 2% +40% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $473
lleva 14 · proyeccion 18.5 ± 4.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.315 42% +32% 3.7% escalable $3,776
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 6% +981% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.045 16% +262% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.005 2% +225% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.235 26% +9% 0.7% escalable $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.3 ± 3.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 3% +479% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,247 5-9 $0.080 26% +220% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $2,803
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).