Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.115 35% +205% 6.7% moderado $1,215 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.105 22% +106% 3.1% moderado $1,904 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.260 52% +102% 8.9% escalable $2,260 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.185 35% +87% 4.9% moderado $1,164 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.280 47% +66% 6.4% escalable $3,838 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.180 26% +43% 2.4% moderado $682 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.485 62% +28% 6.6% escalable $2,262 The White House 160-179 $0.161 20% +23% 1.1% moderado $2,071 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.395 47% +19% 3.0% escalable $4,698 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 20-39 $0.695 74% +6% 3.5% escalable $14,034
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,397 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 382 · proyeccion 959.6 ± 121.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.035 37% +962% 8.7% cautela (no operable) $7,032 960-999 $0.021 13% +529% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $10,780 920-959 $0.045 13% +183% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $5,151 880-919 $0.065 12% +78% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $4,795
lleva 45 · proyeccion 218.0 ± 66.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 7% +4391% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $54,224 260-279 $0.004 9% +2435% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $26,085 240-259 $0.007 11% +1325% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $17,956 80-99 $0.003 2% +651% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $84,213 220-239 $0.022 12% +435% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $14,281 200-219 $0.055 12% +115% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $18,037
lleva 144 · proyeccion 191.1 ± 34.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.004 6% +1539% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $115,370 220-239 $0.009 13% +1217% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $92,531 260-279 $0.002 2% +1169% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $99,990 200-219 $0.055 20% +260% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $103,480 140-159 $0.095 11% +19% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $254,768
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,553 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 45 · proyeccion 150.9 ± 34.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 11% +7456% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $750 140-159 $0.025 23% +825% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $1,112 160-179 $0.161 20% +23% 1.1% moderado $2,071
lleva 151 · proyeccion 180.4 ± 18.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.061 35% +477% 7.8% cautela (no operable) $9,421
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 153.7 ± 36.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 5% +835% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,673 120-139 $0.025 18% +602% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $773 100-119 $0.015 11% +601% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $982 60-79 $0.006 2% +137% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $5,027 140-159 $0.105 22% +106% 3.1% moderado $1,904
lleva 141 · proyeccion 173.1 ± 21.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.037 36% +861% 8.3% cautela (no operable) $6,862
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,670 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 54 · proyeccion 132.5 ± 21.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.061 21% +244% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $1,133 120-139 $0.115 35% +205% 6.7% moderado $1,215
lleva 151 · proyeccion 171.7 ± 11.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.055 14% +146% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $2,372 160-179 $0.485 62% +28% 6.6% escalable $2,262
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 75.5 ± 13.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.004 4% +884% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $569 80-99 $0.185 35% +87% 4.9% moderado $1,164
lleva 49 · proyeccion 67.4 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.035 6% +66% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,980
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 844 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.0 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +132% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,824 40-59 $0.395 47% +19% 3.0% escalable $4,698
lleva 30 · proyeccion 36.7 ± 4.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.695 74% +6% 3.5% escalable $14,034
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 463 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 20.5 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 2% +199% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $473 20-39 $0.260 52% +102% 8.9% escalable $2,260
lleva 15 · proyeccion 19.1 ± 4.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.280 47% +66% 6.4% escalable $3,838
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 6% +981% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.050 16% +226% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.005 2% +225% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.180 26% +43% 2.4% moderado $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.3 ± 3.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.065 26% +294% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $2,803 10-14 $0.015 3% +112% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,252
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).