CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-10-07 06:38 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.13578%+479%18.7%moderado$30,444
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.11229%+162%5.1%moderado$1,026
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.13031%+135%5.0%moderado$1,350
Ted Cruz160-179$0.10023%+132%3.7%moderado$0
Elon Musk<40$0.37065%+76%11.2%escalable$148,780
CZ (Binance)40-59$0.17029%+71%3.6%moderado$0
Ted Cruz140-159$0.13022%+69%2.6%moderado$0
The White House180-199$0.17227%+58%3.0%moderado$1,941
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.24238%+56%4.4%escalable$139
Donald Trump200+$0.26539%+48%4.3%escalable$961
CZ (Binance)<20$0.11015%+40%1.2%moderado$1,841
CZ (Binance)<20$0.24033%+38%3.0%escalable$100
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 24.83x48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 167 · proyeccion 1118.8 ± 153.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.13578%+479%18.7%moderado$30,444
lleva 0 · proyeccion 364.6 ± 95.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.0028%+5105%1.9%cautela (no operable)$12,822
380-399$0.0048%+2211%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,000
420-439$0.0047%+1796%1.6%cautela (no operable)$5,701
360-379$0.0048%+1758%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,135
320-339$0.0048%+1638%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,984
400-419$0.0057%+1398%1.8%cautela (no operable)$700
340-359$0.0068%+1278%1.9%cautela (no operable)$310
300-319$0.0177%+317%1.4%cautela (no operable)$664
280-299$0.0206%+207%1.1%cautela (no operable)$118
260-279$0.0435%+17%0.2%cautela (no operable)$198
lleva 5 · proyeccion 247.6 ± 77.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0023%+1904%0.7%cautela (no operable)$7,463
320-339$0.0046%+1209%1.4%cautela (no operable)$10,538
380-399$0.0022%+1196%0.5%cautela (no operable)$12,785
340-359$0.0044%+1143%1.0%cautela (no operable)$7,812
300-319$0.0077%+896%1.7%cautela (no operable)$12,590
280-299$0.0139%+610%1.9%cautela (no operable)$18,041
400-419$0.0031%+371%0.2%cautela (no operable)$18,212
80-99$0.0031%+334%0.2%cautela (no operable)$18,885
260-279$0.02910%+240%1.8%cautela (no operable)$9,688
100-119$0.0062%+227%0.4%cautela (no operable)$27,942
240-259$0.06510%+58%1.0%cautela (no operable)$7,542
120-139$0.0223%+47%0.3%cautela (no operable)$32,892
lleva 0 · proyeccion 137.7 ± 58.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+8118%4.1%cautela (no operable)$1,865
165-189$0.00214%+6675%3.3%cautela (no operable)$1,980
115-139$0.01217%+1288%3.9%cautela (no operable)$431
90-114$0.02614%+442%3.0%cautela (no operable)$726
lleva 106 · proyeccion 204.3 ± 49.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0045%+1194%1.2%cautela (no operable)$131,275
280-299$0.0044%+958%0.8%cautela (no operable)$49,647
260-279$0.0137%+423%1.4%cautela (no operable)$42,017
300-319$0.0042%+390%0.3%cautela (no operable)$49,497
240-259$0.04011%+169%1.7%cautela (no operable)$59,266
140-159$0.0539%+63%0.9%cautela (no operable)$101,438
220-239$0.09514%+48%1.3%cautela (no operable)$54,891
lleva 10 · proyeccion 26.4 ± 20.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
65-89$0.0093%+198%0.5%cautela (no operable)$85,226
<40$0.37065%+76%11.2%escalable$148,780
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 12.01x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 223.9 ± 51.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 9 · proyeccion 149.3 ± 41.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00517%+3334%4.2%cautela (no operable)$188
100-119$0.00512%+2328%2.9%cautela (no operable)$198
140-159$0.00919%+1926%4.6%cautela (no operable)$293
80-99$0.0057%+1260%1.6%cautela (no operable)$265
60-79$0.0033%+906%0.7%cautela (no operable)$298
160-179$0.04017%+327%3.4%cautela (no operable)$207
40-59$0.0051%+112%0.1%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 118 · proyeccion 183.1 ± 28.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01025%+2394%6.0%cautela (no operable)$439
180-199$0.17227%+58%3.0%moderado$1,941
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 13.73x37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 185.5 ± 50.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.26539%+48%4.3%escalable$961
lleva 1 · proyeccion 126.5 ± 41.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0034%+1308%0.8%cautela (no operable)$647
<20$0.0030%+54%0.0%cautela (no operable)$92
60-79$0.0498%+54%0.7%cautela (no operable)$393
100-119$0.13518%+30%1.2%moderado$1,669
120-139$0.15519%+22%1.0%moderado$2,170
lleva 103 · proyeccion 144.3 ± 23.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.01112%+935%2.7%cautela (no operable)$1,788
180-199$0.0456%+32%0.4%cautela (no operable)$4,295
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.9%Sobre-dispersion: 6.74x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 162.7 ± 33.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.10023%+132%3.7%moderado$0
180-199$0.07517%+130%2.6%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.13022%+69%2.6%moderado$0
200+$0.09513%+40%1.1%cautela (no operable)$10
lleva 7 · proyeccion 109.2 ± 26.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.01510%+564%2.1%cautela (no operable)$133
lleva 60 · proyeccion 106.2 ± 17.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0266%+135%0.9%cautela (no operable)$48
80-99$0.21029%+37%2.4%escalable$892
100-119$0.39042%+8%1.3%escalable$721
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.63x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 120.6 ± 28.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.0057%+1096%1.5%cautela (no operable)$36
140-159$0.04617%+260%3.2%cautela (no operable)$101
180-199$0.0052%+191%0.3%cautela (no operable)$36
40-59$0.0051%+142%0.2%cautela (no operable)$57
60-79$0.0286%+106%0.8%cautela (no operable)$46
120-139$0.19526%+35%2.1%moderado$93
lleva 2 · proyeccion 80.5 ± 22.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0113%+209%0.6%cautela (no operable)$70
40-59$0.07214%+97%1.9%cautela (no operable)$182
60-79$0.28530%+7%0.7%escalable$279
lleva 50 · proyeccion 85.4 ± 15.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.13031%+135%5.0%moderado$1,350
40-59$0.0234%+92%0.5%cautela (no operable)$882
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.6 ± 11.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.00524%+4668%5.9%cautela (no operable)$354
40-59$0.07561%+709%14.4%cautela (no operable)$167
lleva 3 · proyeccion 36.7 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.24238%+56%4.4%escalable$139
<20$0.0253%+28%0.2%cautela (no operable)$253
lleva 23 · proyeccion 36.3 ± 5.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.11229%+162%5.1%moderado$1,026
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0%Sobre-dispersion: 4.34x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 33.4 ± 12.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0052%+172%0.2%cautela (no operable)$10
40-59$0.17029%+71%3.6%moderado$0
20-39$0.42057%+36%6.5%escalable$0
lleva 2 · proyeccion 23.6 ± 9.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.24033%+38%3.0%escalable$100
20-39$0.54061%+14%4.0%escalable$95
lleva 16 · proyeccion 26.3 ± 6.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.11015%+40%1.2%moderado$1,841
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 17.11x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.8 ± 11.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.01317%+1162%4.0%cautela (no operable)$105
10-14$0.01316%+1088%3.7%cautela (no operable)$92
15-19$0.01113%+993%2.9%cautela (no operable)$19
20-24$0.0158%+446%1.7%cautela (no operable)$126
25-29$0.0134%+230%0.8%cautela (no operable)$105
30-34$0.0112%+75%0.2%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 9.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.00920%+2042%4.9%cautela (no operable)$114
10-14$0.00916%+1613%3.9%cautela (no operable)$369
15-19$0.01110%+805%2.2%cautela (no operable)$400
25-29$0.0152%+15%0.1%cautela (no operable)$318
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.4 ± 6.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.00413%+2813%3.2%cautela (no operable)$596
15-19$0.0044%+730%0.8%cautela (no operable)$567
5-9$0.03526%+634%5.8%cautela (no operable)$613