Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.210 58% +175% 11.6% escalable $968 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.215 56% +161% 11.0% escalable $2,257 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.130 29% +122% 4.5% moderado $1,126 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.210 36% +73% 4.9% escalable $89 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.100 17% +68% 1.9% moderado $951 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $325 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.155 25% +60% 2.7% moderado $30 The White House 180-199 $0.265 39% +48% 4.3% escalable $10,178 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.115 15% +33% 1.1% moderado $6,782 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.315 40% +28% 3.3% escalable $621 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.465 60% +28% 6.2% escalable $2,145 Donald Trump 200+ $0.175 22% +28% 1.5% moderado $674
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,295 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 285 · proyeccion 1029.4 ± 138.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.050 59% +1071% 14.1% cautela (no operable) $5,161 960-999 $0.015 11% +596% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $8,598 920-959 $0.033 9% +183% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,033 880-919 $0.070 7% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $3,385
lleva 0 · proyeccion 336.8 ± 92.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 6% +4111% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $2,514 420-439 $0.002 5% +3379% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,678 500+ $0.002 4% +2563% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $17,311 360-379 $0.004 8% +2202% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,940 380-399 $0.004 7% +1986% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,410 340-359 $0.005 8% +1444% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,792 320-339 $0.007 9% +1121% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,765 300-319 $0.010 8% +721% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $3,634 280-299 $0.022 8% +242% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5,061 260-279 $0.045 7% +47% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,540
lleva 47 · proyeccion 257.5 ± 73.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 5% +3210% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $15,001 320-339 $0.003 7% +2587% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $14,068 360-379 $0.002 3% +1605% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $19,315 380-399 $0.002 2% +1351% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $21,064 300-319 $0.007 8% +1025% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $24,260 280-299 $0.017 10% +480% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $21,086 260-279 $0.025 11% +336% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $12,444 100-119 $0.004 1% +220% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $43,780 240-259 $0.065 11% +66% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $8,341 120-139 $0.018 2% +37% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $36,692
lleva 0 · proyeccion 100.4 ± 50.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 12% +4588% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $9,763 165-189 $0.002 6% +4145% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $8,037 115-139 $0.006 17% +2516% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $6,422 90-114 $0.032 19% +518% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $14,149
lleva 133 · proyeccion 192.1 ± 38.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.002 7% +4564% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $155,461 120-139 $0.002 6% +3716% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $276,283 220-239 $0.009 13% +1418% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $118,925 200-219 $0.025 18% +650% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $116,757 180-199 $0.165 20% +23% 1.1% moderado $139,827
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,465 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.5x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 177.5 ± 45.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 6% +946% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $160 80-99 $0.005 3% +393% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $260 120-139 $0.021 10% +391% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $154 140-159 $0.035 15% +320% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $132 60-79 $0.005 1% +92% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $290 160-179 $0.090 17% +92% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $286
lleva 63 · proyeccion 164.2 ± 34.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.002 21% +13941% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $2,515 160-179 $0.015 23% +1472% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $2,828
lleva 160 · proyeccion 192.3 ± 19.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.003 21% +6852% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $5,170 180-199 $0.265 39% +48% 4.3% escalable $10,178
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,181 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5% Sobre-dispersion: 14.27x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 162.8 ± 48.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +620% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $484 60-79 $0.006 3% +299% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $100 80-99 $0.033 5% +59% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $232 200+ $0.175 22% +28% 1.5% moderado $674
lleva 51 · proyeccion 154.2 ± 38.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 2% +532% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,667 100-119 $0.025 11% +323% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $1,361 80-99 $0.016 5% +220% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,448 120-139 $0.100 17% +68% 1.9% moderado $951 40-59 $0.004 1% +54% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,502
lleva 145 · proyeccion 167.9 ± 18.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.090 26% +192% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $2,885
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,571 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.49x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 134.3 ± 27.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.155 25% +60% 2.7% moderado $30 120-139 $0.235 28% +20% 1.6% escalable $30
lleva 57 · proyeccion 134.3 ± 20.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.077 19% +146% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $533 120-139 $0.210 36% +73% 4.9% escalable $89 60-79 $0.003 0% +26% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $893 140-159 $0.275 29% +5% 0.5% escalable $1,001
lleva 125 · proyeccion 147.0 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.095 24% +154% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $2,537 140-159 $0.580 62% +8% 2.7% escalable $3,390
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,681 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 101.8 ± 17.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 14% +1138% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $266 100-119 $0.074 39% +428% 8.6% cautela (no operable) $442 140-159 $0.005 2% +222% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $291 80-99 $0.325 34% +6% 0.7% escalable $514
lleva 17 · proyeccion 78.4 ± 13.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.040 6% +52% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $160 40-59 $0.060 8% +38% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $56 80-99 $0.315 40% +28% 3.3% escalable $621
lleva 49 · proyeccion 69.7 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.075 11% +45% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,525
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 822 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.5 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.033 15% +363% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $1,845 40-59 $0.465 60% +28% 6.2% escalable $2,145
lleva 8 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.013 3% +115% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $2,912 40-59 $0.325 39% +21% 2.5% escalable $5,114
lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.6 ± 4.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.115 15% +33% 1.1% moderado $6,782
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 453 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3% Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.2 ± 12.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 18% +1494% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.210 58% +175% 11.6% escalable $968 60-79 $0.005 1% +5% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $215
lleva 5 · proyeccion 21.7 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.215 56% +161% 11.0% escalable $2,257
lleva 5 · proyeccion 11.3 ± 5.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.013 8% +519% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,020
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.048 14% +199% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $40 20-24 $0.055 9% +70% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $30 10-14 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $325
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.005 4% +777% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $281 10-14 $0.037 18% +383% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $319 15-19 $0.030 10% +244% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $272
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 5.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.025 10% +283% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $606 5-9 $0.130 29% +122% 4.5% moderado $1,126
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.