Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.185 38% +104% 5.9% moderado $3,002 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.127 25% +100% 3.6% moderado $206,447 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.245 45% +85% 6.9% escalable $4,271 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.295 54% +84% 8.8% escalable $3,753 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.110 19% +73% 2.2% moderado $325 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.185 30% +64% 3.6% moderado $472 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.355 57% +61% 8.4% escalable $1,223 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.255 39% +54% 4.6% escalable $1,140 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.265 39% +49% 4.4% escalable $5,403 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.310 45% +46% 5.2% escalable $579 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.515 64% +24% 6.4% escalable $2,605 The White House 180-199 $0.395 48% +21% 3.4% escalable $12,508
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,317 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.71x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 319 · proyeccion 1032.4 ± 135.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.045 60% +1224% 14.4% cautela (no operable) $5,355 960-999 $0.021 11% +418% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $8,638 920-959 $0.052 9% +79% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,043
lleva 0 · proyeccion 306.2 ± 88.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 5% +2946% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,609 360-379 $0.003 7% +2686% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $3,308 380-399 $0.004 6% +1553% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,680 320-339 $0.005 9% +1476% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $5,118 340-359 $0.005 8% +1349% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,959 500+ $0.002 1% +878% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $18,278 300-319 $0.011 9% +754% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $7,675 280-299 $0.021 9% +330% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,061 80-99 $0.003 0% +84% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $21,558 260-279 $0.045 8% +83% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,544
lleva 81 · proyeccion 261.3 ± 68.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 7% +4634% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $16,615 340-359 $0.002 5% +3287% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $20,350 300-319 $0.006 9% +1301% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $32,411 280-299 $0.019 11% +450% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $27,070 120-139 $0.004 2% +419% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $56,956 260-279 $0.049 12% +137% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $24,393 240-259 $0.089 12% +28% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $20,881
lleva 29 · proyeccion 99.2 ± 42.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 11% +3548% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $13,102 165-189 $0.002 5% +2932% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $10,106 <40 $0.009 7% +728% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $29,734 115-139 $0.045 19% +318% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $19,518 90-114 $0.211 23% +9% 0.6% escalable $25,317
lleva 167 · proyeccion 195.9 ± 27.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.002 5% +2918% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $204,356 220-239 $0.011 14% +1107% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $195,650 200-219 $0.127 25% +100% 3.6% moderado $206,447
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,485 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.38x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 157.1 ± 42.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 10% +1723% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $180 120-139 $0.011 15% +1344% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $154 140-159 $0.015 18% +1087% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $150 80-99 $0.005 5% +868% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $296 60-79 $0.005 2% +313% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $329 160-179 $0.090 18% +99% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $325
lleva 90 · proyeccion 170.7 ± 30.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.006 26% +4207% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $2,875 140-159 $0.011 20% +1758% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $2,607
lleva 187 · proyeccion 198.8 ± 11.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.395 48% +21% 3.4% escalable $12,508
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,189 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.4% Sobre-dispersion: 14.31x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.5 ± 46.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 2% +967% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $509 60-79 $0.006 4% +468% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $100 80-99 $0.056 7% +27% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $232 20-39 $0.005 1% +16% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $281
lleva 73 · proyeccion 165.1 ± 36.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 1% +145% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,887 120-139 $0.060 14% +126% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,093 80-99 $0.012 3% +118% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,648
lleva 167 · proyeccion 178.8 ± 13.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.245 45% +85% 6.9% escalable $4,271
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,593 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.47x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 122.0 ± 25.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 4% +746% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $18 40-59 $0.005 1% +42% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $88 120-139 $0.240 29% +21% 1.6% escalable $228 80-99 $0.130 14% +9% 0.3% moderado $36
lleva 80 · proyeccion 144.5 ± 18.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 1% +100% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $346 120-139 $0.185 30% +64% 3.6% moderado $472 140-159 $0.255 39% +54% 4.6% escalable $1,140 100-119 $0.064 8% +31% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $553
lleva 148 · proyeccion 157.3 ± 7.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.185 38% +104% 5.9% moderado $3,002
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,692 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 89.7 ± 16.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 4% +677% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $271 100-119 $0.046 24% +419% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $452 80-99 $0.310 45% +46% 5.2% escalable $579
lleva 28 · proyeccion 77.1 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.325 39% +20% 2.4% escalable $891
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.4 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 824 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 42.6 ± 11.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.295 54% +84% 8.8% escalable $3,753
lleva 13 · proyeccion 37.3 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.265 39% +49% 4.4% escalable $5,403 <20 $0.016 2% +9% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $3,026
lleva 32 · proyeccion 34.8 ± 2.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.025 5% +100% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $7,480
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.6 ± 11.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 10% +831% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.355 57% +61% 8.4% escalable $1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 23.1 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.515 64% +24% 6.4% escalable $2,605
lleva 10 · proyeccion 12.6 ± 3.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.002 3% +1636% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,138
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.7 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.050 13% +160% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.110 19% +73% 2.2% moderado $325 20-24 $0.053 7% +26% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.5 ± 7.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.027 18% +578% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $462 15-19 $0.017 8% +357% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $274 20-24 $0.005 2% +309% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $283
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.6 ± 2.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.054 23% +320% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $1,440
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.