CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-14 08:51 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
The White House180-199$0.13538%+179%7.0%moderado$13,768
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.29052%+79%8.0%escalable$3,783
Donald Trump160-179$0.43073%+69%13.0%escalable$6,984
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.33556%+66%8.3%escalable$1,223
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.29045%+57%5.8%escalable$579
Ted Cruz140-159$0.27040%+46%4.3%escalable$1,140
Ted Cruz140-159$0.43055%+29%5.4%escalable$4,745
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.47559%+25%5.6%escalable$2,969
Donald Trump180-199$0.13016%+22%0.8%moderado$1,662
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.32539%+21%2.6%escalable$899
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.29034%+17%1.7%escalable$5,522
Elon Musk90-114$0.23427%+13%1.0%escalable$41,860
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.65x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 334 · proyeccion 1029.0 ± 133.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06559%+804%14.0%cautela (no operable)$6,419
960-999$0.03311%+237%2.0%cautela (no operable)$9,210
920-959$0.07410%+28%0.6%cautela (no operable)$4,349
lleva 0 · proyeccion 287.5 ± 85.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0023%+2164%0.8%cautela (no operable)$4,229
380-399$0.0035%+1738%1.1%cautela (no operable)$3,680
360-379$0.0046%+1583%1.4%cautela (no operable)$5,274
340-359$0.0057%+1200%1.7%cautela (no operable)$4,277
320-339$0.0068%+1166%1.9%cautela (no operable)$6,205
300-319$0.0119%+680%2.0%cautela (no operable)$7,832
500+$0.0021%+352%0.1%cautela (no operable)$20,530
280-299$0.0259%+263%1.7%cautela (no operable)$7,478
80-99$0.0031%+163%0.1%cautela (no operable)$23,374
260-279$0.0459%+102%1.2%cautela (no operable)$1,684
lleva 96 · proyeccion 257.3 ± 64.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0024%+2876%1.1%cautela (no operable)$24,701
320-339$0.0037%+2548%1.6%cautela (no operable)$21,883
300-319$0.0049%+1881%2.1%cautela (no operable)$36,728
120-139$0.0022%+1061%0.4%cautela (no operable)$75,138
280-299$0.01511%+653%2.4%cautela (no operable)$31,919
260-279$0.05112%+140%1.9%cautela (no operable)$30,112
140-159$0.0213%+50%0.3%cautela (no operable)$38,371
240-259$0.11512%+7%0.2%moderado$23,060
lleva 44 · proyeccion 95.2 ± 36.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0038%+3223%2.0%cautela (no operable)$20,245
165-189$0.0022%+1460%0.6%cautela (no operable)$19,573
115-139$0.03219%+492%4.0%cautela (no operable)$28,468
90-114$0.23427%+13%1.0%escalable$41,860
lleva 182 · proyeccion 191.9 ± 16.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
220-239$0.0024%+2622%1.0%cautela (no operable)$248,600
200-219$0.03728%+636%6.2%cautela (no operable)$340,221
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.27x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.7 ± 41.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00716%+2234%3.9%cautela (no operable)$229
100-119$0.00511%+1934%2.7%cautela (no operable)$255
80-99$0.0056%+1009%1.4%cautela (no operable)$371
140-159$0.02519%+660%4.2%cautela (no operable)$263
60-79$0.0053%+381%0.5%cautela (no operable)$404
160-179$0.07518%+134%2.7%cautela (no operable)$455
lleva 98 · proyeccion 174.1 ± 29.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.00526%+4702%6.5%cautela (no operable)$3,168
140-159$0.00619%+2829%4.6%cautela (no operable)$2,654
lleva 195 · proyeccion 202.2 ± 9.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.13538%+179%7.0%moderado$13,768
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 144.6 ± 45.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0022%+1236%0.5%cautela (no operable)$534
60-79$0.0065%+596%1.0%cautela (no operable)$115
80-99$0.0238%+267%1.6%cautela (no operable)$356
100-119$0.06513%+102%1.8%cautela (no operable)$435
20-39$0.0041%+63%0.1%cautela (no operable)$417
lleva 75 · proyeccion 159.9 ± 34.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0043%+667%0.7%cautela (no operable)$3,574
60-79$0.0031%+236%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,907
120-139$0.06016%+160%2.5%cautela (no operable)$1,093
100-119$0.0578%+44%0.7%cautela (no operable)$1,488
180-199$0.13016%+22%0.8%moderado$1,662
lleva 169 · proyeccion 173.6 ± 8.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.43073%+69%13.0%escalable$6,984
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 117.7 ± 26.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0056%+1124%1.4%cautela (no operable)$18
40-59$0.0041%+182%0.2%cautela (no operable)$388
80-99$0.07517%+129%2.6%cautela (no operable)$46
120-139$0.25027%+7%0.6%escalable$228
lleva 86 · proyeccion 146.0 ± 19.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0031%+130%0.1%cautela (no operable)$646
100-119$0.0417%+80%0.9%cautela (no operable)$561
140-159$0.27040%+46%4.3%escalable$1,140
lleva 154 · proyeccion 158.8 ± 5.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.43055%+29%5.4%escalable$4,745
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 3.09x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 87.7 ± 16.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0043%+636%0.6%cautela (no operable)$271
100-119$0.04421%+376%4.3%cautela (no operable)$452
80-99$0.29045%+57%5.8%escalable$579
lleva 30 · proyeccion 77.3 ± 12.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.32539%+21%2.6%escalable$899
lleva 62 · proyeccion 68.6 ± 4.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.4 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.29052%+79%8.0%escalable$3,783
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 8.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0122%+81%0.2%cautela (no operable)$3,176
40-59$0.29034%+17%1.7%escalable$5,522
lleva 32 · proyeccion 33.6 ± 2.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 23.2 ± 11.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0117%+582%1.5%cautela (no operable)$256
20-39$0.33556%+66%8.3%escalable$1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 21.6 ± 7.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.47559%+25%5.6%escalable$2,969
lleva 10 · proyeccion 11.2 ± 2.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.6 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.05113%+155%2.1%cautela (no operable)$40
10-14$0.09019%+111%2.8%cautela (no operable)$325
20-24$0.0627%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 7.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02318%+690%4.1%cautela (no operable)$499
15-19$0.0118%+585%1.6%cautela (no operable)$321
20-24$0.0052%+286%0.4%cautela (no operable)$320
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.5 ± 2.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.02521%+710%4.7%cautela (no operable)$1,446