Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol The White House 180-199 $0.145 38% +160% 6.8% moderado $13,696 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.315 61% +94% 10.8% escalable $6,818 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 52% +79% 8.0% escalable $3,753 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.335 57% +69% 8.7% escalable $1,223 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.265 41% +56% 5.0% escalable $1,140 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.300 45% +51% 5.5% escalable $579 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.460 62% +35% 7.5% escalable $2,789 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.125 17% +33% 1.2% moderado $1,662 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.130 17% +28% 1.0% moderado $46 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.270 34% +25% 2.3% escalable $5,422 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.320 38% +20% 2.4% escalable $891 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.250 28% +12% 1.0% escalable $228
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,335 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.65x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 332 · proyeccion 1034.6 ± 134.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.085 60% +610% 14.2% cautela (no operable) $6,117 960-999 $0.032 11% +240% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $9,164 920-959 $0.078 9% +18% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $4,313
lleva 0 · proyeccion 295.2 ± 87.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 5% +3298% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,080 400-419 $0.002 4% +2483% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $3,009 360-379 $0.003 6% +2445% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $3,708 320-339 $0.005 8% +1440% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $5,118 340-359 $0.005 8% +1270% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,959 300-319 $0.011 9% +685% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $7,782 500+ $0.002 1% +529% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $18,788 280-299 $0.025 9% +273% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $7,448 80-99 $0.003 1% +127% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $21,978 260-279 $0.045 9% +95% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,564 240-259 $0.075 8% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,466
lleva 94 · proyeccion 263.0 ± 65.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.004 7% +1980% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $19,531 340-359 $0.003 5% +1952% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $22,868 300-319 $0.009 9% +1009% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $33,130 120-139 $0.002 2% +946% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $66,002 280-299 $0.019 11% +471% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $28,567 260-279 $0.056 12% +116% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $28,492
lleva 42 · proyeccion 100.9 ± 38.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 11% +3552% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $18,715 165-189 $0.002 4% +2543% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $15,941 115-139 $0.033 20% +515% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $24,026
lleva 180 · proyeccion 197.6 ± 21.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.006 13% +1860% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $225,047 200-219 $0.067 31% +367% 6.6% cautela (no operable) $279,632
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,500 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.27x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.7 ± 41.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.008 16% +1942% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $229 100-119 $0.005 11% +1934% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $255 80-99 $0.005 6% +1009% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $371 140-159 $0.025 19% +660% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $263 60-79 $0.005 3% +381% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $404 160-179 $0.075 18% +134% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $455
lleva 98 · proyeccion 174.1 ± 29.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.009 26% +2835% 6.4% cautela (no operable) $3,068 140-159 $0.006 19% +2829% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $2,654
lleva 195 · proyeccion 202.2 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.145 38% +160% 6.8% moderado $13,696
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,204 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 146.6 ± 45.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 2% +1149% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $534 60-79 $0.006 4% +556% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $115 80-99 $0.032 8% +155% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $350 100-119 $0.072 13% +74% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $435 20-39 $0.004 1% +51% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $417
lleva 75 · proyeccion 161.9 ± 35.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 3% +532% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $3,574 60-79 $0.003 1% +210% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,907 120-139 $0.050 15% +196% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $1,093 180-199 $0.125 17% +33% 1.2% moderado $1,662 100-119 $0.064 8% +20% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,488
lleva 169 · proyeccion 175.5 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.315 61% +94% 10.8% escalable $6,818
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,599 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 5.46x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 118.3 ± 25.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 5% +961% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $18 40-59 $0.005 1% +88% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $388 80-99 $0.130 17% +28% 1.0% moderado $46 120-139 $0.250 28% +12% 1.0% escalable $228
lleva 86 · proyeccion 146.6 ± 18.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.003 0% +56% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $646 140-159 $0.265 41% +56% 5.0% escalable $1,140 100-119 $0.050 6% +26% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $553
lleva 154 · proyeccion 159.4 ± 5.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,692 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 89.5 ± 16.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 3% +866% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $271 100-119 $0.046 24% +411% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $452 80-99 $0.300 45% +51% 5.5% escalable $579
lleva 28 · proyeccion 76.9 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.320 38% +20% 2.4% escalable $891
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.2 ± 5.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 827 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.4 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 52% +79% 8.0% escalable $3,753
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.013 2% +67% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,026 40-59 $0.270 34% +25% 2.3% escalable $5,422
lleva 32 · proyeccion 33.6 ± 2.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.0 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.010 9% +755% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.335 57% +69% 8.7% escalable $1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 22.4 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.460 62% +35% 7.5% escalable $2,789
lleva 10 · proyeccion 12.0 ± 3.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.002 1% +617% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,260
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.6 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.051 13% +155% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.085 19% +124% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $325
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 7.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.024 18% +657% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $499 15-19 $0.015 8% +420% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $311 20-24 $0.005 2% +286% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $320
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.5 ± 2.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.033 21% +536% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $1,440
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).