CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-12 09:21 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk40-64$0.13046%+252%9.4%moderado$70,809
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.10031%+206%5.7%moderado$1,636
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21554%+150%10.3%escalable$854
Ted Cruz120-139$0.18535%+90%5.1%moderado$1,885
Donald Trump200+$0.19034%+78%4.6%moderado$575
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.14023%+63%2.6%moderado$1,449
Ted Cruz140-159$0.15024%+59%2.6%moderado$945
Donald Trump100-119$0.10015%+50%1.4%moderado$1,274
Elon Musk180-199$0.10515%+47%1.4%moderado$84,315
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.31041%+32%3.6%escalable$5,036
The White House200+$0.43054%+26%4.8%escalable$220
Donald Trump120-139$0.15019%+24%1.1%moderado$657
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 257 · proyeccion 1039.2 ± 141.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06561%+839%14.6%cautela (no operable)$4,805
960-999$0.01710%+523%2.2%cautela (no operable)$4,533
920-959$0.0409%+122%1.3%cautela (no operable)$2,693
880-919$0.0507%+38%0.5%cautela (no operable)$2,889
lleva 0 · proyeccion 374.6 ± 98.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00210%+6645%2.5%cautela (no operable)$14,615
400-419$0.0028%+4986%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,474
420-439$0.0027%+4533%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,653
380-399$0.0038%+3114%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
360-379$0.0058%+1376%1.9%cautela (no operable)$892
340-359$0.0058%+1330%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,310
320-339$0.0097%+761%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,159
300-319$0.0137%+402%1.3%cautela (no operable)$2,515
280-299$0.0226%+148%0.8%cautela (no operable)$4,487
lleva 19 · proyeccion 267.2 ± 79.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0026%+3818%1.4%cautela (no operable)$8,476
360-379$0.0024%+2836%1.1%cautela (no operable)$5,502
320-339$0.0047%+2005%1.8%cautela (no operable)$8,184
300-319$0.0079%+1057%2.0%cautela (no operable)$14,886
280-299$0.01310%+611%2.1%cautela (no operable)$12,138
80-99$0.0021%+463%0.2%cautela (no operable)$39,583
260-279$0.02510%+307%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,525
240-259$0.05510%+77%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,261
220-239$0.0859%+5%0.1%cautela (no operable)$2,361
lleva 0 · proyeccion 138.1 ± 59.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+10698%4.0%cautela (no operable)$1,576
165-189$0.00213%+8888%3.3%cautela (no operable)$1,593
115-139$0.00916%+1824%3.9%cautela (no operable)$1,516
90-114$0.04414%+215%2.5%cautela (no operable)$961
lleva 105 · proyeccion 201.8 ± 49.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0026%+4168%1.6%cautela (no operable)$86,265
240-259$0.00310%+3950%2.5%cautela (no operable)$73,805
220-239$0.01114%+1088%3.2%cautela (no operable)$62,288
100-119$0.0033%+874%0.7%cautela (no operable)$187,142
200-219$0.02516%+542%3.4%cautela (no operable)$54,966
180-199$0.10515%+47%1.4%moderado$84,315
lleva 30 · proyeccion 42.1 ± 17.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
65-89$0.00310%+3846%2.4%cautela (no operable)$104,892
40-64$0.13046%+252%9.4%moderado$70,809
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.55x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.3 ± 48.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0195%+166%0.8%cautela (no operable)$22
140-159$0.0409%+118%1.2%cautela (no operable)$0
80-99$0.0051%+89%0.1%cautela (no operable)$102
100-119$0.0192%+28%0.1%cautela (no operable)$22
200+$0.43054%+26%4.8%escalable$220
lleva 32 · proyeccion 160.2 ± 38.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.02120%+872%4.6%cautela (no operable)$1,324
140-159$0.04020%+394%4.1%cautela (no operable)$1,315
lleva 129 · proyeccion 188.3 ± 26.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00410%+2509%2.5%cautela (no operable)$2,728
160-179$0.01523%+1504%5.5%cautela (no operable)$3,757
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 178.3 ± 50.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0062%+148%0.2%cautela (no operable)$80
200+$0.19034%+78%4.6%moderado$575
80-99$0.0283%+25%0.2%cautela (no operable)$208
160-179$0.13015%+18%0.7%moderado$276
40-59$0.0051%+18%0.0%cautela (no operable)$442
lleva 19 · proyeccion 138.3 ± 41.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0045%+1134%1.1%cautela (no operable)$562
40-59$0.0042%+474%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,412
80-99$0.02010%+383%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,389
100-119$0.10015%+50%1.4%moderado$1,274
120-139$0.15019%+24%1.1%moderado$657
lleva 113 · proyeccion 152.0 ± 23.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.05121%+323%4.3%cautela (no operable)$2,588
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 154.9 ± 29.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 32 · proyeccion 130.0 ± 23.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0051%+173%0.2%cautela (no operable)$713
80-99$0.0458%+77%0.9%cautela (no operable)$269
140-159$0.15024%+59%2.6%moderado$945
lleva 100 · proyeccion 142.7 ± 15.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.18535%+90%5.1%moderado$1,885
100-119$0.0406%+56%0.6%cautela (no operable)$827
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 114.4 ± 18.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.06030%+404%6.5%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.09039%+338%8.3%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.0508%+64%0.8%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 7 · proyeccion 80.8 ± 15.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.07510%+36%0.7%cautela (no operable)$146
lleva 39 · proyeccion 72.1 ± 10.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.14023%+63%2.6%moderado$1,449
60-79$0.63066%+5%2.2%escalable$1,411
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 12.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0052%+274%0.4%cautela (no operable)$686
60-79$0.10031%+206%5.7%moderado$1,636
40-59$0.48555%+13%3.0%escalable$2,050
lleva 2 · proyeccion 37.6 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.31041%+32%3.6%escalable$5,036
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 6.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.5 ± 13.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01628%+1638%6.7%cautela (no operable)$212
60-79$0.0052%+276%0.4%cautela (no operable)$158
20-39$0.21554%+150%10.3%escalable$854
lleva 1 · proyeccion 21.8 ± 10.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0055%+774%1.1%cautela (no operable)$612
20-39$0.09554%+468%12.3%cautela (no operable)$1,818
lleva 1 · proyeccion 10.9 ± 7.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01112%+979%2.7%cautela (no operable)$1,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.05615%+164%2.4%cautela (no operable)$40
20-24$0.05010%+108%1.4%cautela (no operable)$30
10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$84
25-29$0.0546%+12%0.2%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0056%+1115%1.4%cautela (no operable)$278
10-14$0.06518%+186%3.2%cautela (no operable)$316
30-34$0.0051%+31%0.0%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.05215%+183%2.5%cautela (no operable)$575
15-19$0.0294%+48%0.4%cautela (no operable)$381
5-9$0.23528%+20%1.5%escalable$1,045