Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.265 55% +107% 9.6% escalable $2,257 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.205 42% +105% 6.8% escalable $1,117 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.185 34% +82% 4.6% moderado $657 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.105 19% +78% 2.3% moderado $1,742 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.180 31% +70% 3.8% moderado $3,751 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.105 16% +57% 1.7% moderado $1,766 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.370 53% +44% 6.5% escalable $3,463 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.385 55% +42% 6.6% escalable $1,944 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.180 20% +14% 0.7% moderado $1,820 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 20-39 $0.495 56% +13% 3.1% escalable $6,181 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 20-39 $0.700 78% +12% 6.8% escalable $12,841 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.375 41% +10% 1.6% escalable $4,545
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,386 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 371 · proyeccion 977.1 ± 124.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.055 43% +679% 9.9% cautela (no operable) $6,719 960-999 $0.026 13% +390% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $10,652 920-959 $0.065 12% +88% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,036 880-919 $0.095 11% +11% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $4,673
lleva 34 · proyeccion 234.4 ± 71.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.003 8% +3209% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $32,307 300-319 $0.003 6% +2471% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $49,628 320-339 $0.003 5% +1748% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $52,111 260-279 $0.009 10% +1059% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $16,452 240-259 $0.021 11% +430% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $10,607 80-99 $0.004 1% +316% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $67,613 220-239 $0.045 11% +146% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $8,388
lleva 133 · proyeccion 207.5 ± 43.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.003 7% +2588% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $78,164 280-299 $0.002 3% +2032% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $80,625 240-259 $0.005 11% +1989% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $86,499 300-319 $0.002 1% +726% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $79,738 220-239 $0.034 16% +377% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $65,807 140-159 $0.026 8% +188% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $170,593
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,543 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 36 · proyeccion 150.6 ± 36.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 18% +3262% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $563 100-119 $0.005 12% +2222% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $621 140-159 $0.021 22% +939% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $771 160-179 $0.033 19% +479% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $976
lleva 142 · proyeccion 180.0 ± 20.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.059 33% +452% 7.2% cautela (no operable) $6,654
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 166.2 ± 38.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.003 3% +881% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,218 120-139 $0.025 13% +437% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $741 100-119 $0.018 7% +306% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $882 60-79 $0.003 1% +275% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $4,184 140-159 $0.105 19% +78% 2.3% moderado $1,742 160-179 $0.180 20% +14% 0.7% moderado $1,820
lleva 141 · proyeccion 185.6 ± 25.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.046 25% +447% 5.5% cautela (no operable) $5,547 180-199 $0.180 31% +70% 3.8% moderado $3,751
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,661 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 45 · proyeccion 131.9 ± 22.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.015 7% +334% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $369 100-119 $0.086 22% +149% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $980 120-139 $0.185 34% +82% 4.6% moderado $657
lleva 142 · proyeccion 171.1 ± 13.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.050 18% +265% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $2,322 160-179 $0.385 55% +42% 6.6% escalable $1,944
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 79.4 ± 14.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.015 8% +405% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $562 80-99 $0.205 42% +105% 6.8% escalable $1,117
lleva 49 · proyeccion 71.3 ± 8.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.105 16% +57% 1.7% moderado $1,766 40-59 $0.060 8% +35% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,275
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 840 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 10 · proyeccion 37.7 ± 8.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.009 2% +137% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,560 20-39 $0.495 56% +13% 3.1% escalable $6,181 40-59 $0.375 41% +10% 1.6% escalable $4,545
lleva 26 · proyeccion 35.4 ± 5.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.700 78% +12% 6.8% escalable $12,841
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 461 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.014 3% +111% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $470 20-39 $0.265 55% +107% 9.6% escalable $2,257
lleva 14 · proyeccion 20.0 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.370 53% +44% 6.5% escalable $3,463
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 7% +1111% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $297 20-24 $0.005 2% +304% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $187 10-14 $0.045 17% +275% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $410 5-9 $0.235 25% +8% 0.6% escalable $641
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.6 ± 4.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.002 5% +2472% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,172 5-9 $0.070 28% +294% 5.5% cautela (no operable) $2,746 15-19 $0.002 0% +37% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $982
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.