CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-13 15:09 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.15050%+234%10.3%moderado$2,267
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21558%+170%11.6%escalable$1,081
Donald Trump140-159$0.14031%+119%4.8%moderado$3,276
Elon Musk180-199$0.10523%+116%3.4%moderado$176,182
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.10018%+79%2.2%moderado$325
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.33059%+78%9.6%escalable$3,389
Ted Cruz120-139$0.21536%+67%4.6%escalable$89
Donald Trump120-139$0.11018%+61%1.9%moderado$959
Ted Cruz140-159$0.15523%+47%2.1%moderado$46
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.29040%+38%3.9%escalable$5,225
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.35047%+35%4.7%escalable$828
Ted Cruz120-139$0.22529%+30%2.2%escalable$40
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.7x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 290 · proyeccion 1019.7 ± 136.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.04556%+1142%13.4%cautela (no operable)$5,161
960-999$0.01511%+618%2.4%cautela (no operable)$8,638
920-959$0.05410%+81%1.2%cautela (no operable)$4,038
880-919$0.0758%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$3,445
lleva 0 · proyeccion 322.5 ± 91.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0026%+3600%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,534
360-379$0.0038%+2964%1.9%cautela (no operable)$3,293
380-399$0.0047%+1808%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,680
500+$0.0023%+1629%0.6%cautela (no operable)$18,243
340-359$0.0058%+1422%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,959
320-339$0.0069%+1354%2.0%cautela (no operable)$5,118
300-319$0.0119%+687%1.9%cautela (no operable)$7,475
280-299$0.0218%+300%1.6%cautela (no operable)$5,061
260-279$0.0457%+64%0.8%cautela (no operable)$1,540
lleva 52 · proyeccion 248.6 ± 71.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0024%+2642%1.0%cautela (no operable)$15,163
320-339$0.0036%+2252%1.4%cautela (no operable)$14,230
360-379$0.0023%+1673%0.6%cautela (no operable)$19,713
300-319$0.0058%+1454%1.8%cautela (no operable)$25,656
280-299$0.0119%+804%2.1%cautela (no operable)$23,287
260-279$0.01511%+639%2.4%cautela (no operable)$15,373
100-119$0.0042%+377%0.3%cautela (no operable)$46,893
240-259$0.04511%+149%1.8%cautela (no operable)$9,864
220-239$0.08511%+27%0.6%cautela (no operable)$8,703
120-139$0.0243%+18%0.1%cautela (no operable)$40,956
lleva 0 · proyeccion 86.5 ± 47.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0038%+3159%2.0%cautela (no operable)$10,531
165-189$0.0023%+2206%0.8%cautela (no operable)$8,750
115-139$0.00715%+1844%3.5%cautela (no operable)$9,174
90-114$0.03420%+483%4.2%cautela (no operable)$17,214
lleva 138 · proyeccion 183.2 ± 34.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
220-239$0.0029%+6179%2.3%cautela (no operable)$147,800
200-219$0.01517%+1015%4.0%cautela (no operable)$149,326
180-199$0.10523%+116%3.4%moderado$176,182
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.4x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 171.6 ± 44.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0057%+1133%1.6%cautela (no operable)$180
120-139$0.01111%+941%2.6%cautela (no operable)$154
140-159$0.02516%+546%3.4%cautela (no operable)$150
80-99$0.0053%+497%0.7%cautela (no operable)$296
60-79$0.0051%+137%0.2%cautela (no operable)$329
160-179$0.09018%+98%2.4%cautela (no operable)$286
lleva 74 · proyeccion 169.2 ± 32.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00220%+13269%5.0%cautela (no operable)$2,525
160-179$0.01124%+2172%5.8%cautela (no operable)$2,843
lleva 171 · proyeccion 197.3 ± 17.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.34540%+16%2.0%escalable$11,542
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.4%Sobre-dispersion: 14.32x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 158.8 ± 47.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0021%+733%0.3%cautela (no operable)$509
60-79$0.0063%+354%0.6%cautela (no operable)$100
80-99$0.0376%+59%0.6%cautela (no operable)$232
200+$0.16520%+19%0.9%moderado$674
120-139$0.12514%+10%0.4%moderado$103
lleva 52 · proyeccion 151.4 ± 37.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0032%+596%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,887
80-99$0.0116%+409%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,648
100-119$0.03711%+205%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,361
120-139$0.11018%+61%1.9%moderado$959
lleva 146 · proyeccion 165.1 ± 16.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.14031%+119%4.8%moderado$3,276
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.48x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 130.2 ± 26.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.15523%+47%2.1%moderado$46
120-139$0.22529%+30%2.2%escalable$40
lleva 64 · proyeccion 137.0 ± 20.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.06216%+157%2.6%cautela (no operable)$533
120-139$0.21536%+67%4.6%escalable$89
140-159$0.27532%+16%1.6%escalable$1,041
lleva 132 · proyeccion 149.7 ± 9.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.03015%+387%3.0%cautela (no operable)$2,683
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 95.8 ± 17.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0098%+822%1.8%cautela (no operable)$266
100-119$0.05833%+475%7.2%cautela (no operable)$447
80-99$0.32541%+27%3.3%escalable$566
140-159$0.0051%+8%0.0%cautela (no operable)$291
lleva 26 · proyeccion 81.3 ± 13.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.35047%+35%4.7%escalable$828
100-119$0.0668%+21%0.4%cautela (no operable)$160
lleva 58 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 6.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0053%+361%0.5%cautela (no operable)$4,651
80-99$0.05415%+179%2.6%cautela (no operable)$1,677
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 45.6 ± 11.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.33059%+78%9.6%escalable$3,389
lleva 10 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 9.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0112%+100%0.3%cautela (no operable)$2,917
40-59$0.29040%+38%3.9%escalable$5,225
lleva 29 · proyeccion 34.9 ± 4.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.09013%+46%1.1%cautela (no operable)$6,822
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 26.3 ± 12.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01113%+1105%3.1%cautela (no operable)$256
20-39$0.21558%+170%11.6%escalable$1,081
lleva 5 · proyeccion 19.9 ± 9.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.15050%+234%10.3%moderado$2,267
lleva 5 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 4.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0112%+70%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.3 ± 10.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.05114%+183%2.4%cautela (no operable)$40
10-14$0.10018%+79%2.2%moderado$325
20-24$0.0629%+49%0.8%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.0 ± 8.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0054%+745%0.9%cautela (no operable)$283
10-14$0.02518%+622%4.0%cautela (no operable)$336
15-19$0.01510%+586%2.2%cautela (no operable)$274
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 5.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.05329%+437%6.2%cautela (no operable)$1,353
10-14$0.0229%+306%1.8%cautela (no operable)$637