Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.195 81% +314% 19.0% moderado $3,210 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.105 26% +144% 4.2% moderado $129 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.105 18% +70% 2.1% moderado $138 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.205 34% +66% 4.2% escalable $223,893 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.135 22% +60% 2.4% moderado $5,162 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.365 56% +55% 7.9% escalable $6,090 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.145 22% +51% 2.2% moderado $1,741 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.140 21% +49% 2.0% moderado $2,233 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.425 57% +35% 6.4% escalable $260 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.310 42% +34% 3.8% escalable $295 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.230 30% +29% 2.1% escalable $72 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.370 47% +27% 4.0% escalable $2,434
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,164 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4% Sobre-dispersion: 25.57x 39 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 149 · proyeccion 1137.9 ± 159.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.195 81% +314% 19.0% moderado $3,210
lleva 0 · proyeccion 297.7 ± 87.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 4% +2588% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $4,902 380-399 $0.003 5% +2005% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $3,565 420-439 $0.002 3% +1855% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,252 440-459 $0.002 2% +1249% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $6,976 360-379 $0.005 7% +1085% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,986 320-339 $0.011 9% +714% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,587 340-359 $0.011 8% +629% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $3,432 500+ $0.002 1% +592% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $19,634 300-319 $0.019 9% +364% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $2,800 280-299 $0.035 9% +160% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $4,110 80-99 $0.003 1% +114% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $19,806
lleva 81 · proyeccion 251.8 ± 66.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.004 6% +1631% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $27,166 360-379 $0.002 2% +1562% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $23,391 340-359 $0.003 4% +1527% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $26,338 300-319 $0.008 8% +930% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $32,989 380-399 $0.002 1% +830% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $24,449 280-299 $0.017 10% +520% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $21,133 120-139 $0.006 2% +238% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $45,456 260-279 $0.035 12% +232% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $17,213 240-259 $0.085 12% +41% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $19,963 140-159 $0.032 4% +14% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $30,756
lleva 0 · proyeccion 132.6 ± 58.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 13% +8412% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $583 140-164 $0.003 16% +6338% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $583 190-214 $0.002 8% +5532% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $152 215-239 $0.002 5% +3008% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $181 240+ $0.002 3% +2114% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $472 115-139 $0.009 17% +1681% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $1,115 90-114 $0.055 15% +170% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $1,478
lleva 15 · proyeccion 74.3 ± 38.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.003 10% +4059% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $24,222 140-164 $0.002 4% +2353% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $13,338 90-114 $0.034 20% +489% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $19,573 65-89 $0.235 25% +7% 0.5% escalable $12,926
lleva 184 · proyeccion 201.8 ± 21.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.002 4% +2235% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $208,314 220-239 $0.011 16% +1395% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $199,819 200-219 $0.205 34% +66% 4.2% escalable $223,893
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,296 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.6% Sobre-dispersion: 12.37x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 150.7 ± 43.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.029 16% +471% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $10 60-79 $0.006 3% +438% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $22 140-159 $0.035 18% +431% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $0 80-99 $0.013 7% +426% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $34 100-119 $0.028 12% +319% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $10 40-59 $0.006 1% +90% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $871
lleva 76 · proyeccion 151.1 ± 30.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 20% +3938% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $358 100-119 $0.006 10% +1511% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $438 140-159 $0.017 26% +1411% 6.1% cautela (no operable) $867 80-99 $0.003 4% +1095% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $384 60-79 $0.002 1% +304% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $358
lleva 176 · proyeccion 183.1 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.068 34% +405% 7.4% cautela (no operable) $6,665
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,032 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 145.4 ± 45.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 4% +715% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $271 40-59 $0.005 2% +264% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $189 80-99 $0.045 8% +83% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $507 20-39 $0.004 1% +65% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $265 160-179 $0.135 15% +12% 0.5% moderado $1,055
lleva 90 · proyeccion 176.3 ± 35.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 1% +683% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $4,573 120-139 $0.036 9% +159% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,337 160-179 $0.145 22% +51% 2.2% moderado $1,741 180-199 $0.140 21% +49% 2.0% moderado $2,233 100-119 $0.030 4% +30% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,563 140-159 $0.160 17% +5% 0.2% moderado $1,770
lleva 211 · proyeccion 217.5 ± 9.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,446 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.2 ± 25.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.230 30% +29% 2.1% escalable $72 120-139 $0.220 27% +22% 1.6% escalable $192 60-79 $0.054 6% +13% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $52
lleva 89 · proyeccion 149.1 ± 18.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.060 25% +313% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $410 140-159 $0.310 42% +34% 3.8% escalable $295
lleva 136 · proyeccion 141.4 ± 5.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,630 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.9% Sobre-dispersion: 3.05x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.7 ± 16.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.105 26% +144% 4.2% moderado $129 80-99 $0.370 45% +22% 3.2% escalable $311
lleva 28 · proyeccion 77.6 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.335 40% +20% 2.5% escalable $1,616
lleva 67 · proyeccion 75.5 ± 5.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.135 22% +60% 2.4% moderado $5,162
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 793 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.9x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.7 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.006 2% +259% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $590 40-59 $0.435 53% +21% 4.1% escalable $2,050
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.2 ± 8.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 31 · proyeccion 32.6 ± 2.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.7 ± 11.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.042 10% +138% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $10 20-39 $0.425 57% +35% 6.4% escalable $260
lleva 6 · proyeccion 19.0 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +268% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $487 20-39 $0.370 47% +27% 4.0% escalable $2,434
lleva 18 · proyeccion 20.0 ± 3.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.365 56% +55% 7.9% escalable $6,090
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.0 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.032 13% +314% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $21 20-24 $0.026 8% +199% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $20 10-14 $0.105 18% +70% 2.1% moderado $138
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.010 7% +631% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,214 10-14 $0.051 16% +222% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $2,056 20-24 $0.010 2% +120% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,126
lleva 7 · proyeccion 7.5 ± 2.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.033 23% +593% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $3,619
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.