Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.105 29% +174% 5.1% moderado $1,146 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.220 58% +163% 11.5% escalable $1,081 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.210 55% +160% 10.7% escalable $2,257 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.115 27% +132% 4.3% moderado $2,896 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.275 60% +117% 11.1% escalable $2,924 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.106 19% +80% 2.4% moderado $533 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.210 36% +73% 4.9% escalable $89 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $325 Elon Musk 180-199 $0.135 22% +61% 2.4% moderado $149,825 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.155 25% +60% 2.8% moderado $30 The White House 180-199 $0.255 39% +54% 4.6% escalable $10,320 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.111 15% +36% 1.1% moderado $1,941
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,300 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.66x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 286 · proyeccion 1021.3 ± 137.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.050 56% +1026% 13.5% cautela (no operable) $5,161 960-999 $0.027 11% +310% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $8,598 920-959 $0.040 10% +146% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $4,038 880-919 $0.070 8% +12% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,385
lleva 0 · proyeccion 327.8 ± 91.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 6% +3800% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,514 420-439 $0.002 5% +3039% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,678 360-379 $0.004 8% +2138% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,940 500+ $0.002 3% +1941% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $17,352 380-399 $0.004 7% +1880% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,410 340-359 $0.005 8% +1435% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,792 320-339 $0.006 9% +1236% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,976 300-319 $0.009 9% +796% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $3,634 280-299 $0.021 8% +288% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,061 260-279 $0.045 7% +58% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,540
lleva 48 · proyeccion 249.7 ± 71.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 4% +2733% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $15,163 320-339 $0.003 6% +2300% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $14,230 360-379 $0.002 3% +1759% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $19,488 300-319 $0.006 8% +1107% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $25,043 380-399 $0.002 2% +1029% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $21,251 280-299 $0.011 10% +804% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $22,188 260-279 $0.018 11% +476% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $13,811 240-259 $0.045 11% +146% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $9,275 100-119 $0.007 2% +139% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $44,955 220-239 $0.095 11% +12% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $8,430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 91.6 ± 48.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 10% +3710% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $9,872 165-189 $0.002 4% +2875% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $8,140 115-139 $0.009 16% +1744% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $8,861 90-114 $0.030 20% +552% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $14,584
lleva 134 · proyeccion 184.3 ± 35.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 7% +4603% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $307,135 240-259 $0.002 4% +2838% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $162,334 220-239 $0.004 10% +2798% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $131,863 200-219 $0.021 17% +702% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $132,153 180-199 $0.135 22% +61% 2.4% moderado $149,825
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,465 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.5x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 177.4 ± 45.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 6% +947% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $160 80-99 $0.005 3% +394% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $276 120-139 $0.021 10% +391% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $154 140-159 $0.033 15% +347% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $150 60-79 $0.005 1% +92% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $306 160-179 $0.090 17% +92% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $286
lleva 63 · proyeccion 164.2 ± 34.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.002 21% +13953% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $2,515 160-179 $0.015 23% +1472% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $2,828
lleva 160 · proyeccion 192.3 ± 19.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.009 21% +2101% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $5,262 180-199 $0.255 39% +54% 4.6% escalable $10,320
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,181 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5% Sobre-dispersion: 14.27x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 162.5 ± 48.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +627% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $484 60-79 $0.006 3% +303% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $100 200+ $0.175 22% +26% 1.4% moderado $674 80-99 $0.048 5% +10% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $232
lleva 51 · proyeccion 153.9 ± 38.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 2% +540% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,867 100-119 $0.024 11% +354% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $1,361 80-99 $0.018 5% +195% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,648 120-139 $0.090 17% +88% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $951 40-59 $0.004 1% +56% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,502
lleva 145 · proyeccion 167.6 ± 18.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.115 27% +132% 4.3% moderado $2,896 160-179 $0.385 42% +9% 1.4% escalable $3,127
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,576 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.48x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 134.4 ± 27.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.155 25% +60% 2.8% moderado $30 120-139 $0.230 28% +23% 1.7% escalable $30
lleva 57 · proyeccion 134.2 ± 20.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.106 19% +80% 2.4% moderado $533 120-139 $0.210 36% +73% 4.9% escalable $89 60-79 $0.003 0% +25% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $893 140-159 $0.270 29% +7% 0.7% escalable $1,041
lleva 125 · proyeccion 147.0 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.085 24% +185% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $2,537
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,681 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 99.8 ± 17.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 12% +985% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $266 100-119 $0.067 38% +466% 8.3% cautela (no operable) $447 140-159 $0.005 1% +131% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $291 80-99 $0.325 37% +14% 1.6% escalable $519
lleva 19 · proyeccion 78.4 ± 13.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.305 41% +34% 3.7% escalable $668 100-119 $0.045 6% +29% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $160
lleva 51 · proyeccion 69.7 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.075 10% +31% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,525
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 822 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.5 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.275 60% +117% 11.1% escalable $2,924 60-79 $0.111 15% +36% 1.1% moderado $1,941
lleva 8 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.015 3% +93% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $2,912 40-59 $0.315 39% +25% 2.8% escalable $5,160
lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.6 ± 4.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.130 15% +18% 0.7% moderado $6,810
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 453 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3% Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.7 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 16% +1380% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.220 58% +163% 11.5% escalable $1,081
lleva 5 · proyeccion 21.2 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.210 55% +160% 10.7% escalable $2,257
lleva 5 · proyeccion 10.8 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.011 6% +414% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,020
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.050 14% +187% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $40 20-24 $0.057 9% +64% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $30 10-14 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $325
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.005 4% +777% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $281 10-14 $0.040 18% +358% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $319 15-19 $0.029 10% +268% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $272
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 5.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.018 10% +428% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $627 5-9 $0.105 29% +174% 5.1% moderado $1,146
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.