Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.140 60% +328% 13.4% moderado $143 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.335 100% +198% 25.0% escalable $2,045 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.155 30% +95% 4.3% moderado $180 The White House 200+ $0.170 33% +93% 4.8% moderado $1,098 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.100 19% +91% 2.5% moderado $4,731 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.115 21% +80% 2.6% moderado $1,183 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 120-139 $0.115 20% +76% 2.5% moderado $41 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.205 36% +75% 4.8% escalable $59,364 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.120 20% +64% 2.2% moderado $567 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.232 35% +49% 3.7% escalable $1,901 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.195 28% +43% 2.6% moderado $105 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.165 23% +39% 1.9% moderado $44
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,866 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2437.4 ± 249.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.335 100% +198% 25.0% escalable $2,045
lleva 0 · proyeccion 334.4 ± 92.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 6% +4030% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $6,837 440-459 $0.002 4% +2554% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $6,074 500+ $0.002 4% +2381% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $9,548 380-399 $0.004 7% +1960% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $6,436 360-379 $0.004 8% +1679% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,905 420-439 $0.005 5% +917% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $5,964 340-359 $0.011 8% +708% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,564 320-339 $0.011 9% +647% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,387 300-319 $0.028 8% +202% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,333 280-299 $0.040 8% +94% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $4,309
lleva 72 · proyeccion 257.8 ± 69.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.003 3% +1154% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $17,702 340-359 $0.005 5% +858% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $20,222 320-339 $0.007 7% +798% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $22,501 380-399 $0.003 2% +654% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $12,708 400-419 $0.002 1% +596% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $17,497 300-319 $0.021 9% +305% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $26,816 420-439 $0.002 1% +254% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $15,234 280-299 $0.043 10% +144% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $18,652 100-119 $0.005 1% +133% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $30,251 260-279 $0.071 11% +60% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $16,502 120-139 $0.015 2% +43% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $39,412 240-259 $0.105 11% +9% 0.3% moderado $10,872
lleva 0 · proyeccion 101.8 ± 51.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 7% +4349% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $3,593 140-164 $0.004 12% +2908% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $3,536 115-139 $0.017 17% +909% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $2,827 190-214 $0.005 3% +432% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,988 90-114 $0.045 19% +325% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $3,982
lleva 129 · proyeccion 188.9 ± 39.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.004 6% +1292% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $52,595 120-139 $0.009 7% +669% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $127,788 260-279 $0.004 3% +628% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $47,734 220-239 $0.018 12% +545% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $60,880 280-299 $0.003 1% +222% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $43,081 200-219 $0.055 18% +220% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $56,643
lleva 852 · proyeccion 891.1 ± 31.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 920-959 $0.026 17% +553% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $36,056 960-999 $0.003 2% +404% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $35,147
lleva 43 · proyeccion 66.0 ± 24.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.015 14% +892% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $61,829 115-139 $0.004 2% +520% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $53,340 65-89 $0.205 36% +75% 4.8% escalable $59,364
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,914 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9% Sobre-dispersion: 10.26x 27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 180.3 ± 43.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 5% +783% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $19 80-99 $0.005 2% +274% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $11 200+ $0.170 33% +93% 4.8% moderado $1,098 140-159 $0.075 14% +90% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $17 60-79 $0.005 1% +28% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $23
lleva 45 · proyeccion 154.5 ± 33.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.007 18% +2459% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $276 100-119 $0.007 10% +1205% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $334 80-99 $0.013 4% +191% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $168 140-159 $0.083 23% +180% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $349 60-79 $0.006 1% +72% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $223
lleva 123 · proyeccion 155.4 ± 18.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.015 17% +1051% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $2,846 180-199 $0.038 9% +122% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $6,007 140-159 $0.335 40% +19% 2.4% escalable $4,614
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,684 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 180.3 ± 51.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.006 3% +456% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $147 120-139 $0.026 10% +259% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $269 100-119 $0.019 6% +219% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $140 60-79 $0.005 2% +187% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $161 140-159 $0.090 13% +43% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $565 160-179 $0.110 15% +37% 1.1% moderado $289 40-59 $0.005 1% +29% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $164 180-199 $0.140 15% +8% 0.3% moderado $402
lleva 69 · proyeccion 166.7 ± 38.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 13% +4231% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $635 100-119 $0.003 7% +2642% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $472 140-159 $0.011 19% +1608% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $720 80-99 $0.002 3% +1279% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $410 60-79 $0.003 1% +182% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $655 160-179 $0.115 21% +80% 2.6% moderado $1,183 180-199 $0.145 17% +20% 0.8% moderado $1,496
lleva 184 · proyeccion 219.7 ± 23.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.034 15% +339% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $5,148
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,980 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6% Sobre-dispersion: 7.13x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 142.0 ± 31.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.165 23% +39% 1.9% moderado $44 80-99 $0.060 7% +10% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $24
lleva 37 · proyeccion 122.1 ± 24.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 14% +2405% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $178 120-139 $0.155 30% +95% 4.3% moderado $180 60-79 $0.029 4% +26% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $116
lleva 139 · proyeccion 163.5 ± 13.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 3% +523% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,135 140-159 $0.232 35% +49% 3.7% escalable $1,901
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,969 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 106.6 ± 27.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.115 20% +76% 2.5% moderado $41 140-159 $0.058 9% +57% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $20 100-119 $0.195 28% +43% 2.6% moderado $105
lleva 19 · proyeccion 82.0 ± 21.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.075 17% +123% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $586 40-59 $0.069 12% +80% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $273 20-39 $0.013 2% +68% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $176 80-99 $0.280 34% +21% 2.1% escalable $622
lleva 102 · proyeccion 123.8 ± 12.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.071 10% +46% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,138
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 901 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 46.0 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 12% +1838% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $67 40-59 $0.140 60% +328% 13.4% moderado $143
lleva 7 · proyeccion 32.3 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.120 20% +64% 2.2% moderado $567 <20 $0.048 6% +33% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $406
lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.2 ± 4.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.042 12% +181% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,953
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 529 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.1x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.6 ± 11.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.480 59% +24% 5.5% escalable $228
lleva 19 · proyeccion 35.7 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.307 34% +9% 1.0% escalable $133 20-39 $0.585 62% +6% 2.1% escalable $763
lleva 39 · proyeccion 43.8 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.100 19% +91% 2.5% moderado $4,731
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.2 ± 10.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.046 18% +300% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $20 15-19 $0.060 13% +123% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $20 5-9 $0.090 20% +118% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $20 20-24 $0.062 8% +24% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $20
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.5 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 7% +1231% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $361 10-14 $0.013 16% +1093% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $443 5-9 $0.065 25% +286% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $736 20-24 $0.005 2% +254% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $333
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.3 ± 3.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.019 19% +863% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $1,042 10-14 $0.005 2% +225% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,490
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).