Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.205 79% +286% 18.5% escalable $3,421 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.105 21% +98% 2.9% moderado $129 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.145 28% +92% 3.9% moderado $243,374 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.170 30% +76% 3.9% moderado $135 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.105 18% +70% 2.1% moderado $138 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.130 21% +58% 2.2% moderado $2,276 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.145 22% +54% 2.3% moderado $1,879 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.185 26% +40% 2.3% moderado $14,336 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.415 58% +40% 7.0% escalable $2,217 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.425 56% +32% 5.9% escalable $260 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.420 53% +26% 4.6% escalable $2,062 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.370 46% +23% 3.4% escalable $319
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,164 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4% Sobre-dispersion: 25.57x 39 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 149 · proyeccion 1128.3 ± 158.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.205 79% +286% 18.5% escalable $3,421
lleva 0 · proyeccion 288.2 ± 85.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 3% +2190% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $4,902 380-399 $0.003 5% +1756% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $3,565 420-439 $0.002 2% +1506% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $2,252 360-379 $0.005 6% +979% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,986 440-459 $0.002 2% +967% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $6,976 320-339 $0.011 8% +687% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $2,587 340-359 $0.011 7% +585% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,144 500+ $0.002 1% +362% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $19,634 300-319 $0.019 9% +361% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $2,800 280-299 $0.035 9% +169% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $4,992 80-99 $0.003 1% +158% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $19,806 260-279 $0.065 9% +39% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,824 100-119 $0.010 1% +7% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $5,145
lleva 81 · proyeccion 242.3 ± 64.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.004 5% +1317% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $27,758 300-319 $0.005 7% +1207% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $34,929 340-359 $0.003 3% +1143% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $26,938 360-379 $0.002 2% +1079% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $23,492 280-299 $0.011 9% +723% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $27,192 380-399 $0.002 1% +509% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $25,519 260-279 $0.028 11% +312% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $26,296 120-139 $0.011 3% +155% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $54,596 240-259 $0.065 12% +89% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $20,947
lleva 0 · proyeccion 123.1 ± 56.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 11% +7366% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $583 140-164 $0.003 15% +6090% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $583 115-139 $0.012 18% +1366% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $2,143 90-114 $0.055 16% +199% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $1,478
lleva 15 · proyeccion 64.8 ± 35.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.002 6% +4146% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $33,856 90-114 $0.021 16% +656% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $21,359 65-89 $0.185 26% +40% 2.3% moderado $14,336
lleva 184 · proyeccion 192.3 ± 14.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.006 3% +361% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $226,959 200-219 $0.145 28% +92% 3.9% moderado $243,374
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,296 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.6% Sobre-dispersion: 12.37x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 150.6 ± 43.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.004 12% +3251% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $10 120-139 $0.005 16% +3157% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $10 80-99 $0.009 7% +660% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $34 140-159 $0.025 18% +618% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $0 60-79 $0.005 3% +546% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $22 160-179 $0.150 17% +11% 0.5% moderado $0
lleva 76 · proyeccion 151.1 ± 30.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 20% +3941% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $358 100-119 $0.006 10% +1513% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $438 140-159 $0.017 26% +1411% 6.1% cautela (no operable) $867 80-99 $0.003 4% +1097% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $384 60-79 $0.002 1% +305% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $358
lleva 176 · proyeccion 183.1 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.072 34% +378% 7.3% cautela (no operable) $6,946 200+ $0.035 4% +15% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $12,951
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,032 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 143.2 ± 45.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 5% +770% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $271 40-59 $0.005 2% +292% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $289 80-99 $0.043 9% +106% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $517 20-39 $0.004 1% +79% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $272 160-179 $0.135 15% +9% 0.4% moderado $1,086
lleva 90 · proyeccion 174.2 ± 34.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 1% +755% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $4,620 100-119 $0.013 4% +226% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,701 120-139 $0.040 10% +157% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,395 180-199 $0.130 21% +58% 2.2% moderado $2,276 160-179 $0.145 22% +54% 2.3% moderado $1,879
lleva 211 · proyeccion 215.3 ± 7.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,446 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 115.3 ± 25.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.170 30% +76% 3.9% moderado $135 60-79 $0.051 6% +27% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $65 120-139 $0.215 26% +23% 1.6% escalable $205
lleva 89 · proyeccion 148.2 ± 18.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.055 26% +371% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $410 100-119 $0.043 5% +22% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $209 140-159 $0.345 42% +21% 2.8% escalable $1,302
lleva 136 · proyeccion 140.5 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.415 58% +40% 7.0% escalable $2,217
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,630 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.9% Sobre-dispersion: 3.05x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 87.6 ± 16.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.105 21% +98% 2.9% moderado $129 80-99 $0.370 46% +23% 3.4% escalable $319
lleva 28 · proyeccion 74.6 ± 11.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 67 · proyeccion 72.4 ± 4.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 793 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.9x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.7 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.006 2% +259% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $590 40-59 $0.420 53% +26% 4.6% escalable $2,062
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.2 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.295 34% +16% 1.7% escalable $2,600
lleva 31 · proyeccion 32.6 ± 2.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 23.5 ± 11.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.425 56% +32% 5.9% escalable $260
lleva 6 · proyeccion 17.8 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.003 0% +13% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $487 20-39 $0.375 41% +10% 1.6% escalable $2,434
lleva 18 · proyeccion 18.9 ± 2.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.345 38% +11% 1.4% escalable $6,196
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.0 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.040 13% +231% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $21 20-24 $0.026 8% +193% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $20 10-14 $0.105 18% +70% 2.1% moderado $138
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.009 7% +713% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,214 10-14 $0.032 16% +408% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $2,066 20-24 $0.010 2% +120% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,126 25-29 $0.004 0% +10% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,117
lleva 7 · proyeccion 7.5 ± 2.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.050 23% +358% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $3,620
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.