CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.165	77%	+364%	18.0%	moderado	$3,492
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	60-79	$0.150	36%	+139%	6.1%	moderado	$115
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.300	48%	+60%	6.4%	escalable	$1,857
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.365	54%	+48%	7.0%	escalable	$0
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.355	52%	+46%	6.4%	escalable	$754
Donald Trump	200+	$0.385	54%	+40%	6.3%	escalable	$0
The White House	200+	$0.360	48%	+34%	4.8%	escalable	$0
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.105	13%	+28%	0.8%	moderado	$174
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.195	24%	+26%	1.6%	moderado	$2,158
Ted Cruz	80-99	$0.150	19%	+25%	1.1%	moderado	$356
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.335	40%	+21%	2.6%	escalable	$2,808
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.270	32%	+20%	1.9%	escalable	$195

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,180 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 26% del periodo

lleva 170 · proyeccion 1111.9 ± 155.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.165	77%	+364%	18.0%	moderado	$3,492

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 404.8 ± 101.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
500+	$0.003	18%	+5765%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$200
460-479	$0.003	6%	+2461%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$100
440-459	$0.003	7%	+2271%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$12
480-499	$0.003	6%	+1748%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$100
340-359	$0.007	7%	+801%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$187
360-379	$0.011	7%	+602%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$50
400-419	$0.016	8%	+389%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$50
320-339	$0.013	6%	+377%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$175
420-439	$0.016	8%	+375%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$12
300-319	$0.021	5%	+147%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$194
380-399	$0.035	8%	+121%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$50
280-299	$0.035	4%	+18%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$143

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 269.9 ± 80.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
360-379	$0.002	5%	+2204%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$15,386
380-399	$0.002	3%	+2090%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$21,323
340-359	$0.003	6%	+1926%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$21,118
320-339	$0.004	8%	+1575%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$8,084
400-419	$0.002	2%	+1367%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$12,053
300-319	$0.012	9%	+632%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$10,326
280-299	$0.025	10%	+293%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$12,092
80-99	$0.003	1%	+168%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$35,551
100-119	$0.007	1%	+81%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$33,217
260-279	$0.055	10%	+80%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$4,675
240-259	$0.085	10%	+13%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$3,517

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 102 · proyeccion 227.4 ± 56.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
320-339	$0.002	3%	+1766%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$37,463
300-319	$0.004	5%	+1313%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$49,882
280-299	$0.007	8%	+1003%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$44,002
340-359	$0.002	1%	+833%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$37,768
260-279	$0.015	11%	+588%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$52,554
120-139	$0.005	3%	+481%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$72,833
240-259	$0.032	13%	+313%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$35,279
220-239	$0.095	14%	+48%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$37,054

Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 87.2 ± 47.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.002	8%	+5438%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$3,305
165-189	$0.002	4%	+2271%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$7,069
115-139	$0.010	15%	+1375%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$5,189
90-114	$0.045	20%	+342%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$3,123

Elon Musk # tweets August 6 - August 8, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 36 · proyeccion 49.9 ± 18.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
65-89	$0.015	20%	+1194%	4.7%	cautela (no operable)	$57,019

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,326 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.3 ± 48.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.006	1%	+139%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$17
200+	$0.360	48%	+34%	4.8%	escalable	$0

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 150.1 ± 39.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.003	18%	+5754%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$346
100-119	$0.004	12%	+3301%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$426
140-159	$0.025	20%	+688%	4.5%	cautela (no operable)	$581
160-179	$0.165	18%	+8%	0.4%	moderado	$658

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 106 · proyeccion 159.5 ± 25.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.004	16%	+4398%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,029
100-119	$0.002	5%	+3092%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$463
140-159	$0.043	29%	+572%	6.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,710

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,052 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.8 ± 54.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.385	54%	+40%	6.3%	escalable	$0

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 142.8 ± 42.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.005	2%	+248%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$361
60-79	$0.023	4%	+87%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$325
100-119	$0.076	14%	+81%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,044
80-99	$0.056	9%	+53%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$567
20-39	$0.004	1%	+41%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$981

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 112 · proyeccion 178.0 ± 30.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.065	17%	+159%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$2,456
120-139	$0.033	8%	+138%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,517
160-179	$0.195	24%	+26%	1.6%	moderado	$2,158
180-199	$0.210	24%	+13%	0.9%	escalable	$2,627

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,467 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.1 ± 29.1

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 115.2 ± 23.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.030	5%	+77%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$97
80-99	$0.150	19%	+25%	1.1%	moderado	$356
100-119	$0.270	32%	+20%	1.9%	escalable	$195

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 112 · proyeccion 153.1 ± 15.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.031	17%	+452%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$569
140-159	$0.300	48%	+60%	6.4%	escalable	$1,857

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,637 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.2 ± 19.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.050	35%	+600%	7.9%	cautela (no operable)	$0
100-119	$0.070	35%	+407%	7.7%	cautela (no operable)	$0

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 5 · proyeccion 83.0 ± 15.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.105	13%	+28%	0.8%	moderado	$174

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 35 · proyeccion 72.5 ± 10.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.215	25%	+16%	1.1%	escalable	$1,733
40-59	$0.100	11%	+12%	0.3%	moderado	$356

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 798 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 56.0 ± 12.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.150	36%	+139%	6.1%	moderado	$115
80-99	$0.021	3%	+58%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$0

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 10.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.026	4%	+41%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,125
40-59	$0.335	40%	+21%	2.6%	escalable	$2,808

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 6.9

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.2 ± 13.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.016	27%	+1591%	6.5%	cautela (no operable)	$0
20-39	$0.365	54%	+48%	7.0%	escalable	$0

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.2 ± 10.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.355	52%	+46%	6.4%	escalable	$754

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 15.6 ± 7.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.265	29%	+10%	0.9%	escalable	$2,575

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.7 ± 11.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
35-39	$0.011	1%	+32%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$22

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 9.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.013	6%	+350%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$82
10-14	$0.061	18%	+193%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$199
15-19	$0.041	12%	+182%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$83

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 6.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.006	3%	+424%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,311
10-14	$0.032	12%	+294%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,109