Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.150 39% +161% 7.1% moderado $631 Elon Musk 90-114 $0.138 28% +101% 4.0% moderado $60,070 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.310 54% +73% 8.2% escalable $1,292 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.275 41% +50% 4.7% escalable $1,314 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 40-59 $0.115 15% +32% 1.0% moderado $85 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.360 46% +29% 4.1% escalable $4,105 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.305 38% +23% 2.6% escalable $5,592 Elon Musk 240-259 $0.105 13% +22% 0.7% moderado $25,564 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.150 18% +20% 0.9% moderado $579 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.121 14% +16% 0.5% moderado $501 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.470 54% +16% 3.5% escalable $2,996 Elon Musk 40-64 $0.155 18% +14% 0.6% moderado $67,299
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,349 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.65x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 339 · proyeccion 1019.9 ± 132.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.065 56% +764% 13.3% cautela (no operable) $6,419 960-999 $0.033 11% +248% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $9,257 920-959 $0.063 10% +59% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $4,424
lleva 2 · proyeccion 275.5 ± 83.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.002 5% +2437% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $5,414 380-399 $0.002 4% +2418% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $19,627 340-359 $0.004 6% +1740% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $6,047 320-339 $0.004 8% +1617% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $8,354 300-319 $0.007 9% +1067% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $8,681 80-99 $0.002 1% +445% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $30,505 280-299 $0.018 9% +407% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $10,007 260-279 $0.037 9% +153% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,968 100-119 $0.009 1% +42% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $38,815 240-259 $0.075 9% +21% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,940
lleva 101 · proyeccion 248.3 ± 61.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 3% +2147% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $29,720 320-339 $0.003 5% +2076% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $24,805 300-319 $0.004 8% +1657% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $40,786 280-299 $0.009 10% +1117% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $36,520 120-139 $0.003 2% +712% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $77,888 260-279 $0.029 12% +313% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $36,732 140-159 $0.013 4% +187% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $59,279 240-259 $0.105 13% +22% 0.7% moderado $25,564
lleva 49 · proyeccion 86.2 ± 30.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.007 14% +1733% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $45,668 90-114 $0.138 28% +101% 4.0% moderado $60,070 40-64 $0.155 18% +14% 0.6% moderado $67,299
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,505 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.29x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 146.7 ± 40.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 20% +3826% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $519 120-139 $0.005 18% +3496% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $457 100-119 $0.005 13% +2483% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $483 80-99 $0.005 7% +1355% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $600 60-79 $0.005 3% +542% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $634 20-39 $0.002 0% +101% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $273
lleva 110 · proyeccion 176.1 ± 27.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 18% +2693% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $2,654 160-179 $0.024 28% +1082% 6.5% cautela (no operable) $3,323
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,207 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 140.5 ± 44.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.015 9% +500% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $370 40-59 $0.005 2% +346% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $619 20-39 $0.002 1% +304% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $417 100-119 $0.121 14% +16% 0.5% moderado $501
lleva 82 · proyeccion 159.9 ± 33.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.006 3% +348% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $3,681 120-139 $0.043 16% +266% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $1,098 100-119 $0.060 8% +28% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,493
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,607 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 114.7 ± 25.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.002 7% +4567% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $68 80-99 $0.006 19% +3094% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $99 40-59 $0.003 1% +476% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $399 120-139 $0.095 26% +172% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $239
lleva 101 · proyeccion 154.1 ± 17.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.275 41% +50% 4.7% escalable $1,314 120-139 $0.150 18% +20% 0.9% moderado $579
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,696 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 3.1x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 78.9 ± 15.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.150 39% +161% 7.1% moderado $631 100-119 $0.065 9% +37% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $479 120-139 $0.004 0% +33% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $271 20-39 $0.005 1% +16% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $271
lleva 32 · proyeccion 70.7 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.115 15% +32% 1.0% moderado $85 80-99 $0.190 21% +8% 0.5% moderado $921
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 829 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 39.4 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.360 46% +29% 4.1% escalable $4,105 <20 $0.025 3% +29% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,209
lleva 16 · proyeccion 37.1 ± 7.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.003 1% +322% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,231 40-59 $0.305 38% +23% 2.6% escalable $5,592
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.0 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 5% +972% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.310 54% +73% 8.2% escalable $1,292 <20 $0.365 39% +7% 1.0% escalable $1,014
lleva 10 · proyeccion 20.4 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.470 54% +16% 3.5% escalable $2,996
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.7 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.055 19% +243% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $328 15-19 $0.040 11% +191% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $173
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.5 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.018 16% +772% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $569 15-19 $0.013 5% +277% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $361 20-24 $0.004 1% +122% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $360
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.