CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Ted Cruz	160-179	$0.185	38%	+104%	5.9%	moderado	$3,002
Elon Musk	200-219	$0.127	25%	+100%	3.6%	moderado	$206,447
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.245	45%	+85%	6.9%	escalable	$4,271
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.295	54%	+84%	8.8%	escalable	$3,753
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.110	19%	+73%	2.2%	moderado	$325
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.185	30%	+64%	3.6%	moderado	$472
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.355	57%	+61%	8.4%	escalable	$1,223
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.255	39%	+54%	4.6%	escalable	$1,140
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.265	39%	+49%	4.4%	escalable	$5,403
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.310	45%	+46%	5.2%	escalable	$579
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.515	64%	+24%	6.4%	escalable	$2,605
The White House	180-199	$0.395	48%	+21%	3.4%	escalable	$12,508

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,317 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.71x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 42% del periodo

lleva 319 · proyeccion 1032.4 ± 135.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.045	60%	+1224%	14.4%	cautela (no operable)	$5,355
960-999	$0.021	11%	+418%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$8,638
920-959	$0.052	9%	+79%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$4,043

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 306.2 ± 88.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
400-419	$0.002	5%	+2946%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$2,609
360-379	$0.003	7%	+2686%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$3,308
380-399	$0.004	6%	+1553%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,680
320-339	$0.005	9%	+1476%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$5,118
340-359	$0.005	8%	+1349%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,959
500+	$0.002	1%	+878%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$18,278
300-319	$0.011	9%	+754%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$7,675
280-299	$0.021	9%	+330%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$5,061
80-99	$0.003	0%	+84%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$21,558
260-279	$0.045	8%	+83%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,544

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 81 · proyeccion 261.3 ± 68.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
320-339	$0.002	7%	+4634%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$16,615
340-359	$0.002	5%	+3287%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$20,350
300-319	$0.006	9%	+1301%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$32,411
280-299	$0.019	11%	+450%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$27,070
120-139	$0.004	2%	+419%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$56,956
260-279	$0.049	12%	+137%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$24,393
240-259	$0.089	12%	+28%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$20,881

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 50% del periodo

lleva 29 · proyeccion 99.2 ± 42.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.003	11%	+3548%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$13,102
165-189	$0.002	5%	+2932%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$10,106
<40	$0.009	7%	+728%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$29,734
115-139	$0.045	19%	+318%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$19,518
90-114	$0.211	23%	+9%	0.6%	escalable	$25,317

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 167 · proyeccion 195.9 ± 27.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
240-259	$0.002	5%	+2918%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$204,356
220-239	$0.011	14%	+1107%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$195,650
200-219	$0.127	25%	+100%	3.6%	moderado	$206,447

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,485 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.38x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 157.1 ± 42.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.005	10%	+1723%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$180
120-139	$0.011	15%	+1344%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$154
140-159	$0.015	18%	+1087%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$150
80-99	$0.005	5%	+868%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$296
60-79	$0.005	2%	+313%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$329
160-179	$0.090	18%	+99%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$325

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 90 · proyeccion 170.7 ± 30.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.006	26%	+4207%	6.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,875
140-159	$0.011	20%	+1758%	4.9%	cautela (no operable)	$2,607

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 187 · proyeccion 198.8 ± 11.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
180-199	$0.395	48%	+21%	3.4%	escalable	$12,508

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,189 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.4%Sobre-dispersion: 14.31x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.5 ± 46.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.002	2%	+967%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$509
60-79	$0.006	4%	+468%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$100
80-99	$0.056	7%	+27%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$232
20-39	$0.005	1%	+16%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$281

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 73 · proyeccion 165.1 ± 36.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.003	1%	+145%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,887
120-139	$0.060	14%	+126%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,093
80-99	$0.012	3%	+118%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,648

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 167 · proyeccion 178.8 ± 13.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.245	45%	+85%	6.9%	escalable	$4,271

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,593 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.47x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 122.0 ± 25.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.005	4%	+746%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$18
40-59	$0.005	1%	+42%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$88
120-139	$0.240	29%	+21%	1.6%	escalable	$228
80-99	$0.130	14%	+9%	0.3%	moderado	$36

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 80 · proyeccion 144.5 ± 18.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.004	1%	+100%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$346
120-139	$0.185	30%	+64%	3.6%	moderado	$472
140-159	$0.255	39%	+54%	4.6%	escalable	$1,140
100-119	$0.064	8%	+31%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$553

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 148 · proyeccion 157.3 ± 7.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.185	38%	+104%	5.9%	moderado	$3,002

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,692 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 89.7 ± 16.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.004	4%	+677%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$271
100-119	$0.046	24%	+419%	5.1%	cautela (no operable)	$452
80-99	$0.310	45%	+46%	5.2%	escalable	$579

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 28 · proyeccion 77.1 ± 12.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.325	39%	+20%	2.4%	escalable	$891

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.4 ± 5.1

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 824 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 42.6 ± 11.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.295	54%	+84%	8.8%	escalable	$3,753

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 13 · proyeccion 37.3 ± 8.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.265	39%	+49%	4.4%	escalable	$5,403
<20	$0.016	2%	+9%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$3,026

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 32 · proyeccion 34.8 ± 2.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.025	5%	+100%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$7,480

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.6 ± 11.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.011	10%	+831%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$256
20-39	$0.355	57%	+61%	8.4%	escalable	$1,223

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 10 · proyeccion 23.1 ± 8.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.515	64%	+24%	6.4%	escalable	$2,605

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 10 · proyeccion 12.6 ± 3.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.002	3%	+1636%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,138

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.7 ± 9.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.050	13%	+160%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$40
10-14	$0.110	19%	+73%	2.2%	moderado	$325
20-24	$0.053	7%	+26%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$30

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.5 ± 7.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.027	18%	+578%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$462
15-19	$0.017	8%	+357%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$274
20-24	$0.005	2%	+309%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$283

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.6 ± 2.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
5-9	$0.054	23%	+320%	4.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,440