Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.390 60% +53% 8.5% escalable $4,485 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.370 42% +15% 2.1% escalable $2,132 Elon Musk 260-279 $0.138 15% +6% 0.2% moderado $136,868
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,506 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.54x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 500 · proyeccion 982.7 ± 111.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.018 44% +2343% 10.7% cautela (no operable) $7,648 960-999 $0.019 14% +633% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $13,268 920-959 $0.030 13% +342% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $7,258 880-919 $0.075 11% +44% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $5,977
lleva 163 · proyeccion 241.4 ± 44.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.008 5% +522% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $150,959 320-339 $0.004 3% +482% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $91,093 300-319 $0.018 6% +223% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $96,616 280-299 $0.056 10% +79% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $128,717 180-199 $0.055 9% +66% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $143,426 260-279 $0.138 15% +6% 0.2% moderado $136,868
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,616 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.34x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 109 · proyeccion 153.5 ± 22.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 6% +2744% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,008 200+ $0.002 2% +1258% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $8,478 120-139 $0.028 20% +619% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $2,646 180-199 $0.033 10% +218% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $9,938
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 94.0 ± 21.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 28% +18740% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $4,589 80-99 $0.002 35% +17560% 8.8% cautela (no operable) $4,975
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,720 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.98x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 105 · proyeccion 139.2 ± 14.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.021 8% +297% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,662 120-139 $0.370 42% +15% 2.1% escalable $2,132
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,736 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.24x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 40 · proyeccion 62.0 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.390 60% +53% 8.5% escalable $4,485
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 853 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.86x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 23 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.041 16% +300% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $7,285
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 467 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.34x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 9 · proyeccion 16.7 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.045 33% +630% 7.4% cautela (no operable) $2,962
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.5 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.017 12% +614% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $1,044 5-9 $0.043 29% +566% 6.4% cautela (no operable) $1,990 15-19 $0.004 2% +461% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $905
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).