CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-10-08 11:25 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.29064%+122%12.4%escalable$3,108
Elon Musk1000+$0.38076%+101%15.5%escalable$33,446
Ted Cruz140-159$0.13024%+86%3.2%moderado$10
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.16727%+62%3.1%moderado$179
Ted Cruz160-179$0.10516%+51%1.5%moderado$10
Donald Trump140-159$0.25538%+50%4.3%escalable$8,160
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.43063%+47%8.8%escalable$0
Donald Trump120-139$0.14020%+45%1.8%moderado$2,984
The White House180-199$0.11516%+42%1.4%moderado$265
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.26335%+35%3.1%escalable$722
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.29037%+26%2.7%escalable$778
Donald Trump100-119$0.17019%+14%0.7%moderado$2,213
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 24.85x48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 206 · proyeccion 1107.0 ± 149.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.38076%+101%15.5%escalable$33,446
lleva 0 · proyeccion 314.1 ± 88.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
420-439$0.0024%+1826%0.9%cautela (no operable)$12,520
440-459$0.0023%+1298%0.7%cautela (no operable)$15,848
380-399$0.0066%+945%1.4%cautela (no operable)$6,201
360-379$0.0077%+888%1.7%cautela (no operable)$8,311
400-419$0.0055%+817%1.1%cautela (no operable)$10,955
500+$0.0022%+796%0.4%cautela (no operable)$32,512
480-499$0.0021%+744%0.3%cautela (no operable)$12,936
460-479$0.0032%+672%0.4%cautela (no operable)$15,607
340-359$0.0158%+455%1.7%cautela (no operable)$8,662
320-339$0.0409%+125%1.3%cautela (no operable)$13,981
300-319$0.0509%+82%1.1%cautela (no operable)$5,219
80-99$0.0030%+44%0.0%cautela (no operable)$10,445
100-119$0.0041%+39%0.0%cautela (no operable)$12,387
280-299$0.0749%+16%0.3%cautela (no operable)$6,645
lleva 44 · proyeccion 236.2 ± 69.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0025%+3410%1.3%cautela (no operable)$40,973
160-179$0.0037%+2314%1.7%cautela (no operable)$50,002
180-199$0.0099%+865%2.1%cautela (no operable)$76,403
200-219$0.01311%+754%2.4%cautela (no operable)$65,109
220-239$0.02111%+445%2.4%cautela (no operable)$39,096
240-259$0.03711%+201%2.0%cautela (no operable)$31,801
260-279$0.07110%+44%0.8%cautela (no operable)$31,204
lleva 0 · proyeccion 87.3 ± 46.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.0033%+1286%0.8%cautela (no operable)$17,483
140-164$0.0098%+769%1.8%cautela (no operable)$5,480
115-139$0.05015%+200%2.6%cautela (no operable)$4,572
<40$0.04512%+172%2.0%cautela (no operable)$15,001
lleva 145 · proyeccion 192.9 ± 34.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.00218%+12044%4.5%cautela (no operable)$318,442
220-239$0.00213%+8709%3.3%cautela (no operable)$256,908
200-219$0.00320%+8054%5.0%cautela (no operable)$289,200
180-199$0.00423%+6382%5.6%cautela (no operable)$346,222
240-259$0.0426%+47%0.5%cautela (no operable)$201,324
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 12.15x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 193.7 ± 48.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00611%+1569%2.6%cautela (no operable)$55
120-139$0.0097%+625%1.5%cautela (no operable)$35
100-119$0.0114%+252%0.7%cautela (no operable)$25
160-179$0.07414%+94%1.9%cautela (no operable)$177
80-99$0.0102%+68%0.2%cautela (no operable)$53
180-199$0.11516%+42%1.4%moderado$265
60-79$0.0051%+17%0.0%cautela (no operable)$80
lleva 24 · proyeccion 134.5 ± 36.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00520%+3864%4.8%cautela (no operable)$447
100-119$0.00517%+3329%4.2%cautela (no operable)$198
120-139$0.01021%+2032%5.1%cautela (no operable)$275
80-99$0.00510%+1962%2.5%cautela (no operable)$265
60-79$0.0045%+1225%1.1%cautela (no operable)$478
40-59$0.0052%+212%0.3%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 133 · proyeccion 168.3 ± 20.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.00537%+7305%9.2%cautela (no operable)$666
180-199$0.00423%+4972%5.6%cautela (no operable)$3,933
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 13.75x37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 166.8 ± 47.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0558%+49%0.7%cautela (no operable)$0
80-99$0.0405%+16%0.2%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 16 · proyeccion 122.8 ± 38.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0093%+304%0.7%cautela (no operable)$647
60-79$0.0368%+119%1.1%cautela (no operable)$792
120-139$0.14020%+45%1.8%moderado$2,984
180-199$0.0335%+44%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,450
100-119$0.17019%+14%0.7%moderado$2,213
lleva 118 · proyeccion 140.6 ± 17.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.01011%+957%2.4%cautela (no operable)$2,623
160-179$0.04513%+185%2.2%cautela (no operable)$4,325
140-159$0.25538%+50%4.3%escalable$8,160
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.8%Sobre-dispersion: 6.77x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 139.1 ± 30.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.13024%+86%3.2%moderado$10
160-179$0.10516%+51%1.5%moderado$10
lleva 18 · proyeccion 96.8 ± 23.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.00517%+3379%4.2%cautela (no operable)$133
40-59$0.0115%+306%0.9%cautela (no operable)$22
20-39$0.0051%+23%0.0%cautela (no operable)$20
lleva 71 · proyeccion 93.7 ± 12.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.00855%+6814%13.7%cautela (no operable)$3,844
60-79$0.00512%+2352%3.0%cautela (no operable)$648
100-119$0.08030%+278%6.0%cautela (no operable)$1,293
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.68x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.3 ± 26.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0054%+677%0.9%cautela (no operable)$57
120-139$0.07518%+137%2.8%cautela (no operable)$162
160-179$0.0051%+131%0.2%cautela (no operable)$36
140-159$0.0296%+113%0.9%cautela (no operable)$115
lleva 3 · proyeccion 63.6 ± 20.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01010%+911%2.3%cautela (no operable)$659
40-59$0.04330%+614%6.8%cautela (no operable)$822
60-79$0.29037%+26%2.7%escalable$778
lleva 51 · proyeccion 68.5 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00520%+3876%4.9%cautela (no operable)$1,865
60-79$0.29064%+122%12.4%escalable$3,108
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 45.2 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0059%+1565%2.2%cautela (no operable)$513
40-59$0.08561%+617%14.3%cautela (no operable)$270
lleva 7 · proyeccion 34.4 ± 8.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.16727%+62%3.1%moderado$179
<20$0.0294%+28%0.2%cautela (no operable)$453
lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 4.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.03610%+164%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,148
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0%Sobre-dispersion: 4.34x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.3 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.43063%+47%8.8%escalable$0
lleva 6 · proyeccion 22.5 ± 8.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.55562%+11%3.4%escalable$95
lleva 20 · proyeccion 25.2 ± 4.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 16.61x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 10.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.01416%+1076%3.8%cautela (no operable)$92
15-19$0.01112%+1055%2.8%cautela (no operable)$19
20-24$0.0167%+353%1.4%cautela (no operable)$126
25-29$0.0144%+152%0.5%cautela (no operable)$105
30-34$0.0111%+33%0.1%cautela (no operable)$30
5-9$0.17218%+6%0.3%moderado$218
lleva 3 · proyeccion 7.5 ± 8.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0026%+3816%1.4%cautela (no operable)$319
15-19$0.00513%+2443%3.1%cautela (no operable)$400
10-14$0.00920%+1998%4.8%cautela (no operable)$369
25-29$0.0152%+36%0.1%cautela (no operable)$318
lleva 4 · proyeccion 5.7 ± 5.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.00519%+3640%4.6%cautela (no operable)$612
15-19$0.0044%+850%1.0%cautela (no operable)$567
5-9$0.26335%+35%3.1%escalable$722