Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.135 70% +422% 16.5% moderado $4,281 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.120 36% +197% 6.7% moderado $74 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.165 32% +94% 4.7% moderado $348 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.115 22% +89% 2.9% moderado $113,983 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.315 58% +85% 9.8% escalable $867 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.340 60% +75% 9.7% escalable $2,877 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.110 18% +60% 1.9% moderado $0 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.170 23% +37% 1.9% moderado $216 Donald Trump 200+ $0.215 28% +29% 2.0% escalable $1,147 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.145 18% +24% 1.0% moderado $1,531 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.390 48% +23% 3.7% escalable $3,081 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.210 26% +23% 1.5% escalable $3,764
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,235 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 220 · proyeccion 1079.1 ± 148.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.135 70% +422% 16.5% moderado $4,281 960-999 $0.052 9% +63% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $3,782
lleva 0 · proyeccion 323.5 ± 90.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 6% +3638% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $6,386 380-399 $0.003 7% +2594% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,728 500+ $0.002 3% +1662% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $20,981 340-359 $0.005 8% +1428% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,375 360-379 $0.005 8% +1301% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,313 320-339 $0.009 9% +928% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,122 300-319 $0.015 9% +458% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $2,929 280-299 $0.025 8% +234% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $6,702 260-279 $0.055 7% +34% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $656 80-99 $0.003 0% +30% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $14,934
lleva 68 · proyeccion 239.2 ± 66.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 5% +3081% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $45,301 300-319 $0.004 7% +1616% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $40,171 280-299 $0.007 9% +1103% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $30,142 260-279 $0.017 11% +556% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $18,156 100-119 $0.004 2% +346% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $66,678 240-259 $0.045 12% +164% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $14,369 220-239 $0.095 12% +25% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $14,082 120-139 $0.026 3% +16% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $64,620
lleva 0 · proyeccion 86.5 ± 47.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 8% +3155% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,235 165-189 $0.002 3% +2194% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,479 115-139 $0.009 15% +1437% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,101 90-114 $0.037 20% +437% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $1,131 65-89 $0.195 21% +5% 0.3% moderado $1,979
lleva 152 · proyeccion 196.7 ± 33.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.004 9% +2479% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $207,171 260-279 $0.002 2% +1528% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $110,447 240-259 $0.004 7% +1480% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $106,797 220-239 $0.018 15% +741% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $102,497 200-219 $0.115 22% +89% 2.9% moderado $113,983
lleva 36 · proyeccion 42.5 ± 12.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 65-89 $0.007 4% +524% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $107,422 <40 $0.350 41% +16% 2.2% escalable $134,231
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,354 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.9x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.2 ± 45.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.006 11% +1780% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $120 100-119 $0.006 7% +1034% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $120 80-99 $0.005 3% +515% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $149 140-159 $0.055 15% +181% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $268 60-79 $0.006 1% +132% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $169
lleva 49 · proyeccion 152.9 ± 35.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 11% +4170% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $453 120-139 $0.007 18% +2480% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $656 140-159 $0.030 22% +631% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $1,272
lleva 134 · proyeccion 162.3 ± 18.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 10% +3145% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $3,190 140-159 $0.046 33% +623% 7.5% cautela (no operable) $7,344
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,098 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 170.1 ± 49.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.002 0% +100% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $567 40-59 $0.004 1% +91% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $331 200+ $0.215 28% +29% 2.0% escalable $1,147
lleva 63 · proyeccion 152.6 ± 36.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.008 5% +509% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,623 60-79 $0.004 2% +362% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $2,317 100-119 $0.053 11% +103% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,710 120-139 $0.145 18% +24% 1.0% moderado $1,531 140-159 $0.180 22% +21% 1.2% moderado $959
lleva 157 · proyeccion 187.8 ± 21.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.002 8% +3839% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,215 160-179 $0.210 26% +23% 1.5% escalable $3,764
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,493 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 131.4 ± 27.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.170 23% +37% 1.9% moderado $216 60-79 $0.021 2% +12% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $511
lleva 45 · proyeccion 121.3 ± 20.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.165 32% +94% 4.7% moderado $348 80-99 $0.098 12% +26% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $432 120-139 $0.285 35% +22% 2.1% escalable $421 60-79 $0.018 2% +10% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $124
lleva 139 · proyeccion 159.2 ± 10.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 3% +1994% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,192 140-159 $0.390 48% +23% 3.7% escalable $3,081
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,652 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 97.8 ± 17.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.120 36% +197% 6.7% moderado $74 120-139 $0.040 10% +145% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $90
lleva 20 · proyeccion 76.7 ± 13.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.445 49% +10% 2.0% escalable $1,042 40-59 $0.086 9% +8% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,323
lleva 50 · proyeccion 66.1 ± 7.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 809 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 46.8 ± 11.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.340 60% +75% 9.7% escalable $2,877 60-79 $0.083 14% +65% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $811
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.2 ± 8.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +211% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,660 40-59 $0.445 48% +7% 1.4% escalable $4,199
lleva 29 · proyeccion 35.8 ± 4.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 26.8 ± 12.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.010 14% +1328% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $40 20-39 $0.315 58% +85% 9.8% escalable $867
lleva 0 · proyeccion 15.8 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.065 34% +424% 7.4% cautela (no operable) $854
lleva 6 · proyeccion 10.2 ± 4.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.006 2% +314% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $3,211
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.9 ± 10.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 2% +218% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $12 15-19 $0.080 14% +74% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $0 10-14 $0.110 18% +60% 1.9% moderado $0 20-24 $0.078 9% +14% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $12
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.8 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.029 17% +465% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $397 15-19 $0.040 8% +102% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $206 20-24 $0.013 3% +100% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $195 25-29 $0.005 1% +5% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $167
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.4 ± 4.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.070 20% +191% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $5,320 10-14 $0.010 3% +172% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $2,985
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.