CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.215	47%	+120%	8.2%	escalable	$1,075
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.175	33%	+89%	4.7%	moderado	$657
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.305	54%	+77%	8.4%	escalable	$2,257
Ted Cruz	160-179	$0.320	53%	+64%	7.6%	escalable	$1,912
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.200	33%	+64%	4.0%	escalable	$1,647
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.355	53%	+48%	6.6%	escalable	$3,458
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.355	47%	+33%	4.5%	escalable	$4,378
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.160	20%	+25%	1.2%	moderado	$1,697
Donald Trump	140-159	$0.155	17%	+12%	0.5%	moderado	$1,200
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.230	25%	+10%	0.7%	escalable	$634

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,386 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 52% del periodo

lleva 371 · proyeccion 985.0 ± 125.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.060	45%	+656%	10.5%	cautela (no operable)	$6,663
960-999	$0.025	13%	+397%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$9,620
920-959	$0.052	12%	+128%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$4,695
880-919	$0.075	10%	+34%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$4,085

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 34 · proyeccion 242.2 ± 73.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
300-319	$0.002	7%	+3473%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$44,623
280-299	$0.003	9%	+2849%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$32,307
340-359	$0.002	4%	+2385%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$38,794
320-339	$0.003	5%	+2043%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$52,057
260-279	$0.009	10%	+970%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$12,051
80-99	$0.003	1%	+395%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$59,978
240-259	$0.022	11%	+382%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$9,174
220-239	$0.065	11%	+65%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,838

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 133 · proyeccion 215.4 ± 45.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
260-279	$0.003	9%	+3378%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$77,193
280-299	$0.002	5%	+3085%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$80,569
240-259	$0.006	13%	+1920%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$84,402
300-319	$0.002	2%	+1351%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$79,588
220-239	$0.036	16%	+351%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$60,963
140-159	$0.018	6%	+258%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$161,895

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,543 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 35 · proyeccion 153.2 ± 36.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.005	18%	+3087%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$563
100-119	$0.005	11%	+1853%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$601
140-159	$0.011	21%	+1845%	5.1%	cautela (no operable)	$771
160-179	$0.029	20%	+585%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$976

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 141 · proyeccion 182.6 ± 21.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.017	30%	+1711%	7.2%	cautela (no operable)	$6,181

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x30 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 62 · proyeccion 171.1 ± 39.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.003	1%	+208%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$3,629
120-139	$0.060	12%	+94%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$716
100-119	$0.033	6%	+86%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$750
160-179	$0.160	20%	+25%	1.2%	moderado	$1,697
80-99	$0.021	2%	+14%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,108
140-159	$0.155	17%	+12%	0.5%	moderado	$1,200

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 141 · proyeccion 190.5 ± 26.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.005	9%	+1606%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$3,549
160-179	$0.080	22%	+172%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$5,029

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,659 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 45 · proyeccion 133.6 ± 23.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.175	33%	+89%	4.7%	moderado	$657

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 142 · proyeccion 172.7 ± 13.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.050	16%	+216%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$2,072
160-179	$0.320	53%	+64%	7.6%	escalable	$1,912

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,711 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 17 · proyeccion 83.7 ± 14.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.015	13%	+781%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$562
80-99	$0.215	47%	+120%	8.2%	escalable	$1,075
120-139	$0.004	1%	+57%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$322

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 49 · proyeccion 75.5 ± 9.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.017	4%	+150%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,224
80-99	$0.200	33%	+64%	4.0%	escalable	$1,647
100-119	$0.004	0%	+16%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$276

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 840 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 10 · proyeccion 39.1 ± 9.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.009	2%	+64%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,541
40-59	$0.355	47%	+33%	4.5%	escalable	$4,378

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 26 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 5.6

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 461 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 3 · proyeccion 21.3 ± 9.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.010	3%	+222%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$463
20-39	$0.305	54%	+77%	8.4%	escalable	$2,257

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 13 · proyeccion 19.9 ± 6.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.355	53%	+48%	6.6%	escalable	$3,458

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.006	8%	+1056%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$280
20-24	$0.005	2%	+292%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$180
10-14	$0.055	17%	+210%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$400
5-9	$0.230	25%	+10%	0.7%	escalable	$634

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.7 ± 4.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.007	6%	+729%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,162
5-9	$0.090	28%	+212%	5.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,542
15-19	$0.003	0%	+47%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$982