Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.395 86% +117% 19.1% escalable $23,881 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.105 23% +115% 3.4% moderado $15 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.140 25% +81% 3.3% moderado $406 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.130 17% +28% 1.1% moderado $27 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.105 13% +21% 0.6% moderado $15 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.140 17% +19% 0.8% moderado $8,973 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.220 26% +19% 1.3% escalable $975 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.535 63% +18% 5.1% escalable $90 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.115 13% +17% 0.6% moderado $1,436 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.300 32% +7% 0.8% escalable $308 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.155 17% +7% 0.3% moderado $1,109 The White House 180-199 $0.160 17% +5% 0.2% moderado $901
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 12,919 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0% Sobre-dispersion: 24.76x 48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 157 · proyeccion 1169.3 ± 158.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.395 86% +117% 19.1% escalable $23,881
lleva 0 · proyeccion 300.7 ± 86.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 4% +2686% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $2,588 380-399 $0.003 5% +2078% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $8,917 360-379 $0.005 7% +1244% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $2,865 340-359 $0.007 8% +949% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $2,233 320-339 $0.009 9% +819% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,484 300-319 $0.013 9% +606% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,565 420-439 $0.005 3% +508% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $6,938 280-299 $0.022 9% +307% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,265 80-99 $0.003 0% +87% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $8,352 120-139 $0.007 1% +86% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $12,033 260-279 $0.053 9% +63% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,644 100-119 $0.005 1% +60% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $7,661
lleva 0 · proyeccion 195.0 ± 69.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.005 14% +2411% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $720 140-164 $0.005 12% +2048% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $720 115-139 $0.026 9% +236% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $10
lleva 96 · proyeccion 251.6 ± 62.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.004 6% +1576% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $16,377 340-359 $0.003 4% +1392% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $23,226 360-379 $0.002 2% +1328% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $31,307 300-319 $0.008 8% +940% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $29,207 140-159 $0.004 3% +856% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $44,611 120-139 $0.003 2% +652% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $51,370 380-399 $0.002 1% +639% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $31,302 280-299 $0.022 11% +373% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $25,893 260-279 $0.058 12% +114% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $19,182 160-179 $0.027 5% +99% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $30,022
lleva 0 · proyeccion 73.7 ± 42.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.007 11% +1441% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $1,295 90-114 $0.034 19% +455% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $1,455 <40 $0.070 17% +144% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $11,397
lleva 207 · proyeccion 240.3 ± 28.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.004 7% +1380% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $85,813 300-319 $0.002 2% +1018% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $91,913 260-279 $0.041 17% +310% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $120,614 200-219 $0.047 16% +233% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $168,031
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 6,092 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8% Sobre-dispersion: 11.89x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 182.8 ± 46.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 13% +2304% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $37 120-139 $0.011 9% +712% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $60 60-79 $0.002 1% +364% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $170 100-119 $0.011 5% +358% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $70 80-99 $0.005 2% +330% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $137 160-179 $0.043 16% +275% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $38 180-199 $0.160 17% +5% 0.2% moderado $901
lleva 97 · proyeccion 204.3 ± 35.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.009 14% +1360% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $374 180-199 $0.048 20% +322% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $1,508 100-119 $0.002 1% +255% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $231
lleva 261 · proyeccion 284.6 ± 16.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 5,429 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5% Sobre-dispersion: 13.65x 37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 167.1 ± 47.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 2% +286% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $96 80-99 $0.025 5% +81% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $0 160-179 $0.155 17% +7% 0.3% moderado $1,109
lleva 83 · proyeccion 165.5 ± 33.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.009 6% +573% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,262 80-99 $0.010 2% +94% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,315 120-139 $0.115 13% +17% 0.6% moderado $1,436
lleva 142 · proyeccion 164.1 ± 17.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.140 17% +19% 0.8% moderado $8,973
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 3,560 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.7x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 132.8 ± 29.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.105 23% +115% 3.4% moderado $15 180-199 $0.036 5% +26% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $15 160-179 $0.105 13% +21% 0.6% moderado $15 120-139 $0.220 26% +19% 1.3% escalable $975
lleva 45 · proyeccion 121.5 ± 22.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.130 17% +28% 1.1% moderado $27 120-139 $0.300 32% +7% 0.8% escalable $308
lleva 97 · proyeccion 112.8 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.050 10% +95% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $805 120-139 $0.140 25% +81% 3.3% moderado $406
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 2,423 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 6.6x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 98.1 ± 25.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.039 15% +280% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $86 40-59 $0.035 5% +52% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $85 140-159 $0.042 4% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $60
lleva 47 · proyeccion 101.7 ± 19.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.032 15% +371% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $333 40-59 $0.005 1% +130% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $354 140-159 $0.017 2% +34% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $209 60-79 $0.085 11% +28% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,119
lleva 100 · proyeccion 112.5 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.071 22% +206% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $483
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 1,079 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 43.2 ± 10.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 6% +840% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $204 40-59 $0.090 58% +541% 13.4% cautela (no operable) $130
lleva 14 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.077 36% +374% 7.8% cautela (no operable) $574
lleva 29 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 3.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.045 6% +42% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,277
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 653 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0% Sobre-dispersion: 4.35x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 26.4 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.036 11% +206% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5 20-39 $0.535 63% +18% 5.1% escalable $90
lleva 13 · proyeccion 28.1 ± 8.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.017 8% +378% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $40
lleva 23 · proyeccion 26.3 ± 3.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 155 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0% Sobre-dispersion: 16.44x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.3 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.002 6% +3972% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $77 5-9 $0.010 19% +1830% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $113 10-14 $0.010 17% +1564% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $118 15-19 $0.015 11% +656% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $160 30-34 $0.005 1% +75% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $69 25-29 $0.015 3% +73% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $72 35-39 $0.002 0% +55% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $59
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.4 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 14% +2406% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $355 15-19 $0.005 5% +949% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $327 5-9 $0.029 23% +723% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $373 20-24 $0.009 1% +36% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $511
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.8 ± 3.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.004 14% +2991% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $1,280
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.