CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.205	56%	+172%	11.1%	escalable	$2,173
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.230	57%	+149%	11.1%	escalable	$968
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.130	29%	+122%	4.6%	moderado	$1,100
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.170	34%	+102%	5.2%	moderado	$2,247
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.100	18%	+77%	2.1%	moderado	$325
Elon Musk	200-219	$0.109	18%	+63%	1.9%	moderado	$94,910
Donald Trump	200+	$0.175	27%	+57%	3.0%	moderado	$575
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.153	24%	+56%	2.5%	moderado	$2,860
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.250	36%	+42%	3.5%	escalable	$89
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.150	19%	+30%	1.3%	moderado	$917
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.470	59%	+26%	5.8%	escalable	$2,145
Donald Trump	100-119	$0.129	16%	+24%	0.9%	moderado	$1,324

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,294 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 39% del periodo

lleva 279 · proyeccion 1039.6 ± 139.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.050	61%	+1126%	14.8%	cautela (no operable)	$5,141
960-999	$0.027	10%	+285%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$8,278
920-959	$0.041	9%	+115%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$3,796

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 353.0 ± 95.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
400-419	$0.002	7%	+4581%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$2,514
500+	$0.002	6%	+4017%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$17,154
420-439	$0.002	6%	+3943%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,678
360-379	$0.004	8%	+2256%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,940
380-399	$0.004	8%	+1845%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,210
340-359	$0.007	8%	+1095%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,792
320-339	$0.007	8%	+1060%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$4,765
300-319	$0.012	8%	+529%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$3,017
280-299	$0.023	7%	+192%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$4,917

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 41 · proyeccion 267.6 ± 76.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
340-359	$0.003	6%	+2253%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$13,393
320-339	$0.004	8%	+1781%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$12,697
360-379	$0.003	4%	+1618%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$16,889
300-319	$0.009	9%	+898%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$21,289
280-299	$0.018	10%	+457%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$18,810
260-279	$0.040	10%	+161%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$11,676
100-119	$0.006	1%	+89%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$42,951
240-259	$0.085	10%	+19%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$7,230
120-139	$0.018	2%	+13%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$31,443

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.5 ± 54.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
165-189	$0.002	10%	+6509%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$4,902
140-164	$0.003	15%	+5783%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$9,728
115-139	$0.009	18%	+1990%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$6,422
90-114	$0.047	17%	+272%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$14,049

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 127 · proyeccion 202.2 ± 43.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
260-279	$0.002	6%	+3691%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$105,349
240-259	$0.005	10%	+1754%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$134,231
120-139	$0.003	5%	+1460%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$238,735
220-239	$0.029	15%	+405%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$94,577
200-219	$0.109	18%	+63%	1.9%	moderado	$94,910

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,454 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.49x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 184.6 ± 46.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.005	5%	+745%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$154
120-139	$0.021	8%	+305%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$154
80-99	$0.005	2%	+283%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$254
140-159	$0.045	13%	+187%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$132
160-179	$0.090	16%	+81%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$286
60-79	$0.005	1%	+44%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$290

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 55 · proyeccion 163.3 ± 35.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.006	21%	+3087%	5.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,515
160-179	$0.011	22%	+1899%	5.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,559

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 152 · proyeccion 191.4 ± 21.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.015	22%	+1326%	5.2%	cautela (no operable)	$4,978

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,154 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 169.8 ± 49.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.002	1%	+481%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$484
60-79	$0.006	2%	+226%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$100
80-99	$0.021	4%	+114%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$232
200+	$0.175	27%	+57%	3.0%	moderado	$575

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 25 · proyeccion 136.0 ± 40.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.003	5%	+1605%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$758
40-59	$0.004	2%	+474%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,443
80-99	$0.028	10%	+264%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,439
120-139	$0.150	19%	+30%	1.3%	moderado	$917
100-119	$0.129	16%	+24%	0.9%	moderado	$1,324

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 119 · proyeccion 149.6 ± 21.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.153	24%	+56%	2.5%	moderado	$2,860

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,561 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 141.9 ± 27.9

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 46 · proyeccion 130.9 ± 21.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.003	1%	+173%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$793
120-139	$0.250	36%	+42%	3.5%	escalable	$89
80-99	$0.050	6%	+29%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$275

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 114 · proyeccion 143.7 ± 12.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.170	34%	+102%	5.2%	moderado	$2,247

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,679 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.5 ± 17.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.015	15%	+870%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$244
100-119	$0.076	40%	+420%	8.7%	cautela (no operable)	$425
140-159	$0.005	2%	+258%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$274

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 17 · proyeccion 79.0 ± 13.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.046	7%	+45%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$160

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 49 · proyeccion 70.3 ± 8.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.080	13%	+60%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,514

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 818 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 49.8 ± 12.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.060	20%	+240%	3.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,845
80-99	$0.005	1%	+27%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$702
40-59	$0.470	59%	+26%	5.8%	escalable	$2,145

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 35.5 ± 9.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.275	33%	+20%	1.9%	escalable	$5,058
20-39	$0.580	61%	+6%	2.1%	escalable	$7,094

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 23 · proyeccion 33.0 ± 5.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.105	11%	+7%	0.2%	moderado	$6,553

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 452 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.4 ± 12.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.011	20%	+1738%	4.8%	cautela (no operable)	$256
20-39	$0.230	57%	+149%	11.1%	escalable	$968
60-79	$0.005	1%	+53%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$215

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 21.8 ± 9.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.205	56%	+172%	11.1%	escalable	$2,173
40-59	$0.014	4%	+156%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$896

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 11.3 ± 6.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.013	10%	+656%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,020

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.6 ± 10.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.056	14%	+161%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$40
10-14	$0.100	18%	+77%	2.1%	moderado	$325
20-24	$0.070	10%	+38%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$30

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.4 ± 8.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.005	5%	+871%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$278
10-14	$0.031	18%	+488%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$316
15-19	$0.021	11%	+412%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$269

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.5 ± 5.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.033	11%	+246%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$606
5-9	$0.130	29%	+122%	4.6%	moderado	$1,100
15-19	$0.017	2%	+23%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$408