Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.205 56% +172% 11.1% escalable $2,173 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.230 57% +149% 11.1% escalable $968 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.130 29% +122% 4.6% moderado $1,100 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.170 34% +102% 5.2% moderado $2,247 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.100 18% +77% 2.1% moderado $325 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.109 18% +63% 1.9% moderado $94,910 Donald Trump 200+ $0.175 27% +57% 3.0% moderado $575 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.153 24% +56% 2.5% moderado $2,860 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.250 36% +42% 3.5% escalable $89 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.150 19% +30% 1.3% moderado $917 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.470 59% +26% 5.8% escalable $2,145 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.129 16% +24% 0.9% moderado $1,324
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,294 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 279 · proyeccion 1039.6 ± 139.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.050 61% +1126% 14.8% cautela (no operable) $5,141 960-999 $0.027 10% +285% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $8,278 920-959 $0.041 9% +115% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $3,796
lleva 0 · proyeccion 353.0 ± 95.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 7% +4581% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $2,514 500+ $0.002 6% +4017% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $17,154 420-439 $0.002 6% +3943% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,678 360-379 $0.004 8% +2256% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,940 380-399 $0.004 8% +1845% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,210 340-359 $0.007 8% +1095% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,792 320-339 $0.007 8% +1060% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,765 300-319 $0.012 8% +529% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $3,017 280-299 $0.023 7% +192% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,917
lleva 41 · proyeccion 267.6 ± 76.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.003 6% +2253% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $13,393 320-339 $0.004 8% +1781% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $12,697 360-379 $0.003 4% +1618% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $16,889 300-319 $0.009 9% +898% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $21,289 280-299 $0.018 10% +457% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $18,810 260-279 $0.040 10% +161% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $11,676 100-119 $0.006 1% +89% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $42,951 240-259 $0.085 10% +19% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $7,230 120-139 $0.018 2% +13% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $31,443
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.5 ± 54.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 10% +6509% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $4,902 140-164 $0.003 15% +5783% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $9,728 115-139 $0.009 18% +1990% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $6,422 90-114 $0.047 17% +272% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $14,049
lleva 127 · proyeccion 202.2 ± 43.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 6% +3691% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $105,349 240-259 $0.005 10% +1754% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $134,231 120-139 $0.003 5% +1460% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $238,735 220-239 $0.029 15% +405% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $94,577 200-219 $0.109 18% +63% 1.9% moderado $94,910
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,454 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.49x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 184.6 ± 46.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 5% +745% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $154 120-139 $0.021 8% +305% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $154 80-99 $0.005 2% +283% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $254 140-159 $0.045 13% +187% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $132 160-179 $0.090 16% +81% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $286 60-79 $0.005 1% +44% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $290
lleva 55 · proyeccion 163.3 ± 35.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 21% +3087% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $2,515 160-179 $0.011 22% +1899% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $2,559
lleva 152 · proyeccion 191.4 ± 21.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.015 22% +1326% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $4,978
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,154 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 169.8 ± 49.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +481% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $484 60-79 $0.006 2% +226% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $100 80-99 $0.021 4% +114% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $232 200+ $0.175 27% +57% 3.0% moderado $575
lleva 25 · proyeccion 136.0 ± 40.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 5% +1605% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $758 40-59 $0.004 2% +474% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,443 80-99 $0.028 10% +264% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,439 120-139 $0.150 19% +30% 1.3% moderado $917 100-119 $0.129 16% +24% 0.9% moderado $1,324
lleva 119 · proyeccion 149.6 ± 21.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.153 24% +56% 2.5% moderado $2,860
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,561 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 141.9 ± 27.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 46 · proyeccion 130.9 ± 21.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 1% +173% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $793 120-139 $0.250 36% +42% 3.5% escalable $89 80-99 $0.050 6% +29% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $275
lleva 114 · proyeccion 143.7 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.170 34% +102% 5.2% moderado $2,247
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,679 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.5 ± 17.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.015 15% +870% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $244 100-119 $0.076 40% +420% 8.7% cautela (no operable) $425 140-159 $0.005 2% +258% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $274
lleva 17 · proyeccion 79.0 ± 13.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.046 7% +45% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $160
lleva 49 · proyeccion 70.3 ± 8.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.080 13% +60% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,514
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 818 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 49.8 ± 12.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.060 20% +240% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $1,845 80-99 $0.005 1% +27% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $702 40-59 $0.470 59% +26% 5.8% escalable $2,145
lleva 4 · proyeccion 35.5 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.275 33% +20% 1.9% escalable $5,058 20-39 $0.580 61% +6% 2.1% escalable $7,094
lleva 23 · proyeccion 33.0 ± 5.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.105 11% +7% 0.2% moderado $6,553
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 452 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3% Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.4 ± 12.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 20% +1738% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.230 57% +149% 11.1% escalable $968 60-79 $0.005 1% +53% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $215
lleva 4 · proyeccion 21.8 ± 9.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.205 56% +172% 11.1% escalable $2,173 40-59 $0.014 4% +156% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $896
lleva 4 · proyeccion 11.3 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.013 10% +656% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $1,020
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.6 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.056 14% +161% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.100 18% +77% 2.1% moderado $325 20-24 $0.070 10% +38% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.4 ± 8.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.005 5% +871% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $278 10-14 $0.031 18% +488% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $316 15-19 $0.021 11% +412% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $269
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.5 ± 5.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.033 11% +246% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $606 5-9 $0.130 29% +122% 4.6% moderado $1,100 15-19 $0.017 2% +23% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $408
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.