Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.165 77% +366% 18.1% moderado $3,561 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.120 38% +214% 7.3% moderado $2,143 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.155 41% +162% 7.4% moderado $24 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.225 47% +109% 7.9% escalable $777 Donald Trump 200+ $0.235 47% +102% 7.8% escalable $1,010 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.125 24% +89% 3.2% moderado $4,106 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.335 56% +68% 8.6% escalable $22 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.325 51% +58% 7.0% escalable $3,073 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.160 25% +57% 2.7% moderado $2,233 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.145 22% +50% 2.1% moderado $331 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.330 44% +33% 4.0% escalable $1,960 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.145 19% +33% 1.4% moderado $815
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,204 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 192 · proyeccion 1112.6 ± 153.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.165 77% +366% 18.1% moderado $3,561
lleva 0 · proyeccion 383.5 ± 99.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 12% +7948% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $12,232 420-439 $0.002 7% +4717% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $3,949 440-459 $0.002 6% +4199% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $9,554 380-399 $0.007 8% +1047% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $255 400-419 $0.007 8% +1010% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,529 360-379 $0.008 8% +896% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $482 340-359 $0.009 8% +743% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $563 320-339 $0.011 7% +561% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,046 300-319 $0.013 6% +351% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $451 280-299 $0.028 5% +83% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $3,076
lleva 40 · proyeccion 270.6 ± 76.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.002 5% +2929% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $28,747 340-359 $0.003 6% +2353% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $28,764 380-399 $0.002 3% +1998% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $33,459 320-339 $0.004 8% +1619% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $25,539 300-319 $0.009 9% +860% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $20,529 280-299 $0.020 10% +403% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $17,394 80-99 $0.002 1% +334% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $44,777 100-119 $0.003 1% +287% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $51,461 260-279 $0.045 10% +128% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $9,321 120-139 $0.013 2% +54% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $30,611 240-259 $0.095 10% +5% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $6,693
lleva 0 · proyeccion 145.9 ± 61.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.004 16% +4511% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $562 165-189 $0.004 14% +3978% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $577 190-214 $0.004 11% +2958% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $109 215-239 $0.004 7% +1843% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $106 115-139 $0.015 15% +931% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $60 90-114 $0.060 13% +109% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $189
lleva 124 · proyeccion 228.1 ± 51.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 4% +2145% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $73,850 120-139 $0.002 3% +1588% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $119,659 320-339 $0.002 2% +1418% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $54,616 280-299 $0.006 8% +1172% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $57,383 260-279 $0.019 11% +488% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $65,777 240-259 $0.053 14% +164% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $59,427 140-159 $0.019 5% +151% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $89,543 220-239 $0.125 15% +23% 0.8% moderado $57,082
lleva 8 · proyeccion 73.9 ± 41.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 4% +2651% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $10,188 115-139 $0.009 11% +1018% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $18,028 90-114 $0.044 19% +328% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $19,978 65-89 $0.185 24% +29% 1.6% moderado $16,629
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,337 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 189.0 ± 47.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.015 8% +397% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $70 100-119 $0.011 4% +282% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $60 80-99 $0.005 2% +250% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $97 140-159 $0.037 12% +221% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $216 60-79 $0.005 1% +34% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $117 160-179 $0.125 15% +23% 0.8% moderado $212
lleva 32 · proyeccion 152.7 ± 38.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 17% +4850% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $361 100-119 $0.004 11% +3056% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $426 140-159 $0.019 21% +962% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $581
lleva 117 · proyeccion 162.1 ± 23.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 13% +2835% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $1,627 140-159 $0.012 29% +2322% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $3,896
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,061 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 196.0 ± 53.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.235 47% +102% 7.8% escalable $1,010 180-199 $0.125 15% +18% 0.7% moderado $447 160-179 $0.125 13% +6% 0.2% moderado $474
lleva 30 · proyeccion 146.0 ± 40.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.004 3% +772% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $461 40-59 $0.003 1% +407% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $463 80-99 $0.019 8% +300% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $588 100-119 $0.065 13% +101% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,060 140-159 $0.145 19% +33% 1.4% moderado $815 20-39 $0.003 0% +22% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $5,641 120-139 $0.160 18% +11% 0.5% moderado $1,043
lleva 124 · proyeccion 181.1 ± 28.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.016 6% +261% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,955 140-159 $0.075 15% +103% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $2,604 160-179 $0.160 25% +57% 2.7% moderado $2,233
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,481 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 148.2 ± 28.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.055 21% +280% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.090 27% +203% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $0 180-199 $0.045 10% +124% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $0 200+ $0.025 4% +44% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $40 120-139 $0.185 22% +20% 1.1% moderado $0
lleva 31 · proyeccion 123.9 ± 22.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.055 12% +110% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $376 60-79 $0.018 2% +27% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $97 100-119 $0.230 28% +23% 1.7% escalable $215 120-139 $0.305 33% +9% 0.9% escalable $288
lleva 125 · proyeccion 161.8 ± 14.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 6% +424% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $841 140-159 $0.120 38% +214% 7.3% moderado $2,143 160-179 $0.427 46% +7% 1.3% escalable $1,549
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,650 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.4 ± 18.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.062 28% +347% 5.8% cautela (no operable) $20 100-119 $0.155 41% +162% 7.4% moderado $24 140-159 $0.035 7% +93% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $12
lleva 18 · proyeccion 88.9 ± 14.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.145 22% +50% 2.1% moderado $331
lleva 48 · proyeccion 78.3 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.330 44% +33% 4.0% escalable $1,960 40-59 $0.021 3% +17% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $513
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 802 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.0 ± 12.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.065 28% +338% 5.9% cautela (no operable) $713 40-59 $0.425 56% +32% 5.9% escalable $1,275
lleva 9 · proyeccion 40.4 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.008 1% +81% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,140 40-59 $0.325 51% +58% 7.0% escalable $3,073
lleva 24 · proyeccion 37.0 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 34% +18% 1.9% escalable $3,111
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.4 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.041 23% +460% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.335 56% +68% 8.6% escalable $22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.4 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 2% +351% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $187 20-39 $0.225 47% +109% 7.9% escalable $777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.7 ± 6.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.065 19% +187% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $2,893
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 2% +282% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $12 20-24 $0.040 9% +139% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $10 15-19 $0.060 14% +136% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $0 25-29 $0.041 5% +27% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $70 10-14 $0.140 17% +24% 1.0% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.029 9% +221% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $83 10-14 $0.055 17% +214% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $199 20-24 $0.013 3% +174% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $82
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.029 6% +93% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,367 5-9 $0.125 24% +89% 3.2% moderado $4,106
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).