Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.130 34% +160% 6.0% moderado $1,077 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.185 37% +102% 5.8% moderado $1,149 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.265 52% +96% 8.7% escalable $2,257 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.110 21% +90% 2.8% moderado $1,742 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.355 56% +59% 8.1% escalable $2,172 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.320 47% +47% 5.5% escalable $3,734 The White House 160-179 $0.145 20% +36% 1.5% moderado $1,747 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.375 46% +21% 3.2% escalable $4,558 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.245 30% +21% 1.7% escalable $4,485 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.225 26% +14% 1.0% escalable $682 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 20-39 $0.665 75% +13% 6.2% escalable $13,464 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 40-59 $0.116 12% +6% 0.2% moderado $1,555
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,386 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 372 · proyeccion 966.0 ± 123.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.040 39% +882% 9.2% cautela (no operable) $7,007 960-999 $0.022 13% +482% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $10,755 920-959 $0.046 13% +174% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $5,092 880-919 $0.065 11% +72% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,785
lleva 35 · proyeccion 223.2 ± 69.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.003 7% +2815% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $39,608 320-339 $0.002 4% +2286% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $52,700 260-279 $0.005 9% +1571% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $19,736 300-319 $0.004 5% +1420% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $50,306 240-259 $0.015 11% +636% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $15,201 220-239 $0.045 11% +154% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $10,831 80-99 $0.009 2% +91% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $79,759 200-219 $0.085 11% +32% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $13,640
lleva 134 · proyeccion 196.4 ± 40.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.003 8% +3226% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $99,497 260-279 $0.002 4% +2455% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $87,061 280-299 $0.002 1% +821% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $87,035 220-239 $0.017 14% +730% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $83,418 120-139 $0.010 5% +401% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $233,762 200-219 $0.085 19% +120% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $83,821
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,545 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.37x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 43 · proyeccion 151.7 ± 35.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 18% +12205% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $689 140-159 $0.015 22% +1390% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $1,006 160-179 $0.145 20% +36% 1.5% moderado $1,747
lleva 149 · proyeccion 181.1 ± 19.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.046 34% +626% 7.6% cautela (no operable) $9,173
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 157.7 ± 36.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.025 16% +543% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $741 100-119 $0.018 9% +431% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $882 60-79 $0.003 1% +425% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $4,191 80-99 $0.013 4% +210% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,453 140-159 $0.110 21% +90% 2.8% moderado $1,742
lleva 141 · proyeccion 177.1 ± 22.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.041 32% +699% 7.4% cautela (no operable) $6,035 180-199 $0.245 30% +21% 1.7% escalable $4,485
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,662 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 53 · proyeccion 134.8 ± 22.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.051 19% +268% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $1,113 120-139 $0.130 34% +160% 6.0% moderado $1,077 80-99 $0.021 5% +136% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $369
lleva 150 · proyeccion 173.9 ± 12.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.060 11% +87% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,372 160-179 $0.355 56% +59% 8.1% escalable $2,172
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 76.9 ± 13.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 5% +377% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $569 80-99 $0.185 37% +102% 5.8% moderado $1,149
lleva 49 · proyeccion 68.7 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.040 9% +119% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,951 40-59 $0.116 12% +6% 0.2% moderado $1,555
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 842 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 13 · proyeccion 38.7 ± 8.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.009 1% +46% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,560 40-59 $0.375 46% +21% 3.2% escalable $4,558
lleva 29 · proyeccion 36.4 ± 4.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.665 75% +13% 6.2% escalable $13,464
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 462 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 20.5 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.265 52% +96% 8.7% escalable $2,257 40-59 $0.014 2% +50% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $471
lleva 14 · proyeccion 19.1 ± 5.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.320 47% +47% 5.5% escalable $3,734
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 6% +981% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.045 16% +262% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.005 2% +225% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.225 26% +14% 1.0% escalable $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.3 ± 3.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.075 26% +241% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $2,790 10-14 $0.016 3% +99% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,241
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.