Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.150 45% +200% 8.8% moderado $200 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.250 58% +130% 10.9% escalable $1,246 The White House 160-179 $0.110 25% +128% 4.0% moderado $2,916 The White House 200+ $0.330 70% +113% 13.9% escalable $0 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.235 47% +99% 7.6% escalable $295 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.120 24% +97% 3.3% moderado $74 Elon Musk 180-199 $0.205 37% +79% 5.1% escalable $172,907 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.100 18% +78% 2.2% moderado $99 Donald Trump 200+ $0.305 54% +78% 8.5% escalable $0 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.305 53% +74% 8.1% escalable $3,865 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.165 27% +66% 3.3% moderado $452 The White House 160-179 $0.315 50% +59% 6.8% escalable $14,628
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,247 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 236 · proyeccion 1065.1 ± 145.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.085 67% +693% 16.1% cautela (no operable) $4,605 960-999 $0.029 9% +223% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,129 920-959 $0.064 8% +18% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $2,466
lleva 0 · proyeccion 420.8 ± 103.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.003 22% +7364% 5.5% cautela (no operable) $244 420-439 $0.003 8% +2961% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $144 440-459 $0.003 7% +2856% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $144 460-479 $0.003 7% +2193% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $244 480-499 $0.003 6% +1956% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $244 400-419 $0.006 8% +1172% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $144 380-399 $0.006 7% +1123% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $144 360-379 $0.007 7% +871% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $150 340-359 $0.011 6% +478% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $175 320-339 $0.019 5% +168% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $155 300-319 $0.025 4% +73% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $161
lleva 0 · proyeccion 294.2 ± 86.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 5% +3256% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,920 400-419 $0.002 4% +2440% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $10,775 360-379 $0.004 6% +1702% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $2,408 340-359 $0.004 8% +1566% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $5,094 320-339 $0.005 8% +1437% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,197 440-459 $0.002 2% +1141% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $11,250 500+ $0.002 1% +499% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $23,459 300-319 $0.015 9% +483% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,618 280-299 $0.025 9% +274% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $7,982 260-279 $0.045 9% +96% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,644 80-99 $0.004 1% +64% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $17,975
lleva 0 · proyeccion 183.7 ± 68.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240+ $0.002 21% +13742% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $379 165-189 $0.002 14% +9502% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $571 190-214 $0.002 14% +9212% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $48 215-239 $0.002 12% +7817% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $177 140-164 $0.003 13% +5109% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $571 115-139 $0.009 10% +1114% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $756 90-114 $0.045 7% +59% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $69
lleva 84 · proyeccion 226.4 ± 60.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.004 8% +2086% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $43,200 320-339 $0.002 3% +1964% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $46,253 300-319 $0.003 5% +1956% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $41,439 260-279 $0.009 10% +1102% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $29,179 240-259 $0.026 12% +362% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $26,031 100-119 $0.005 2% +273% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $79,355 220-239 $0.065 13% +102% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $20,510
lleva 9 · proyeccion 66.7 ± 38.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.003 8% +3000% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $8,176 90-114 $0.005 17% +2983% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $11,819 140-164 $0.002 2% +1468% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $6,859 65-89 $0.075 25% +228% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $15,349
lleva 168 · proyeccion 183.8 ± 20.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200-219 $0.009 18% +2014% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $195,205 180-199 $0.205 37% +79% 5.1% escalable $172,907
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,391 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.81x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 227.1 ± 51.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.330 70% +113% 13.9% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.5 ± 42.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 16% +3993% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $605 100-119 $0.004 12% +2462% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $611 80-99 $0.005 7% +1203% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $634 140-159 $0.015 19% +1104% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $885 60-79 $0.005 3% +492% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $660 160-179 $0.155 17% +10% 0.5% moderado $1,097
lleva 87 · proyeccion 169.7 ± 31.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 11% +2157% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $1,157 140-159 $0.013 21% +1420% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $1,880 160-179 $0.110 25% +128% 4.0% moderado $2,916
lleva 172 · proyeccion 179.1 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.005 1% +135% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $15,550 160-179 $0.315 50% +59% 6.8% escalable $14,628
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,125 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 205.2 ± 54.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.305 54% +78% 8.5% escalable $0 60-79 $0.006 1% +12% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $10
lleva 0 · proyeccion 146.4 ± 45.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 2% +866% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,055 60-79 $0.007 4% +479% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $347 80-99 $0.040 8% +103% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,026 120-139 $0.130 16% +24% 0.9% moderado $292 100-119 $0.113 13% +12% 0.4% moderado $1,019
lleva 90 · proyeccion 155.9 ± 30.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.012 9% +610% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,155 80-99 $0.004 3% +576% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $2,282 120-139 $0.050 18% +257% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $2,202
lleva 184 · proyeccion 191.0 ± 10.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,514 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.4 ± 30.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.3 ± 25.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.021 6% +189% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $520 80-99 $0.125 18% +44% 1.6% moderado $200
lleva 66 · proyeccion 127.0 ± 18.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.035 6% +78% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $450 100-119 $0.165 27% +66% 3.3% moderado $452 120-139 $0.315 41% +30% 3.5% escalable $596
lleva 160 · proyeccion 164.9 ± 5.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,662 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 130.0 ± 19.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.325 38% +18% 2.2% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 89.4 ± 16.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.120 24% +97% 3.3% moderado $74 120-139 $0.025 3% +36% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $90 80-99 $0.410 45% +11% 1.9% escalable $247
lleva 30 · proyeccion 78.4 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.380 42% +11% 1.7% escalable $958 40-59 $0.054 6% +10% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,820
lleva 60 · proyeccion 67.8 ± 4.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 60.3 ± 13.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.150 45% +200% 8.8% moderado $200 40-59 $0.360 42% +16% 2.2% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.9 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.305 53% +74% 8.1% escalable $3,865 <20 $0.013 2% +64% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $926
lleva 19 · proyeccion 39.3 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.425 49% +14% 2.6% escalable $4,366 <20 $0.004 1% +12% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,660
lleva 34 · proyeccion 35.9 ± 2.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.029 6% +114% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $7,106
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 36.7 ± 14.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 37% +6055% 9.1% cautela (no operable) $60 60-79 $0.026 5% +100% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $71 20-39 $0.235 47% +99% 7.6% escalable $295
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.1 ± 11.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 11% +1538% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $368 20-39 $0.250 58% +130% 10.9% escalable $1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 14.1 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.044 27% +499% 5.8% cautela (no operable) $992
lleva 6 · proyeccion 8.4 ± 3.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.7 ± 12.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.3 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 1% +144% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $100 20-24 $0.035 8% +134% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $100 15-19 $0.065 13% +107% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $88 10-14 $0.100 18% +78% 2.2% moderado $99
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.029 16% +427% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $470 15-19 $0.029 6% +118% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $279 20-24 $0.011 2% +45% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $275 5-9 $0.175 25% +41% 2.2% moderado $959
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.8 ± 3.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.039 11% +194% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $6,311 10-14 $0.003 0% +10% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $3,644
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).