Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.220 58% +164% 11.6% escalable $1,081 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.215 53% +145% 9.9% escalable $2,267 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.125 29% +135% 4.8% moderado $2,937 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 60% +105% 10.8% escalable $3,062 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.125 25% +100% 3.6% moderado $2,540 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.100 18% +79% 2.2% moderado $325 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.205 37% +79% 5.1% escalable $89 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.155 25% +59% 2.7% moderado $40 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.110 17% +59% 1.8% moderado $951 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.315 43% +37% 4.3% escalable $817 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.112 14% +28% 0.9% moderado $1,941 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.295 38% +28% 3.0% escalable $5,174
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,300 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.66x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 286 · proyeccion 1019.8 ± 137.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.045 56% +1142% 13.4% cautela (no operable) $5,161 960-999 $0.025 11% +335% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $8,638 920-959 $0.052 10% +88% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,038 880-919 $0.070 8% +13% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,385
lleva 0 · proyeccion 326.3 ± 91.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 6% +3745% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,514 360-379 $0.003 8% +3016% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,940 420-439 $0.002 5% +2980% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,678 380-399 $0.004 7% +1861% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,410 500+ $0.002 3% +1848% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $17,359 340-359 $0.005 8% +1432% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,792 320-339 $0.006 9% +1350% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,976 300-319 $0.009 9% +907% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $3,784 280-299 $0.021 8% +292% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,061 260-279 $0.045 7% +60% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,540
lleva 48 · proyeccion 248.2 ± 71.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 4% +2643% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $15,163 320-339 $0.003 6% +2242% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $14,230 360-379 $0.002 3% +1683% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $19,488 300-319 $0.006 8% +1087% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $25,243 280-299 $0.009 9% +1007% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $22,946 380-399 $0.002 2% +973% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $21,251 260-279 $0.013 11% +750% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $14,784 100-119 $0.006 2% +166% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $44,955 240-259 $0.045 11% +146% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $9,640 220-239 $0.085 11% +26% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $8,480
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.1 ± 48.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 9% +3550% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $9,872 165-189 $0.002 4% +2670% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $8,240 115-139 $0.006 15% +2266% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $9,004 90-114 $0.026 20% +651% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $15,160
lleva 134 · proyeccion 182.8 ± 35.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.003 10% +3714% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $132,800 120-139 $0.003 7% +2848% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $324,428 240-259 $0.002 4% +2532% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $167,599 200-219 $0.013 17% +1249% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $142,745 180-199 $0.075 22% +192% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $163,354
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,465 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.5x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.0 ± 45.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 6% +991% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $160 80-99 $0.005 3% +419% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $276 120-139 $0.021 10% +407% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $154 140-159 $0.033 15% +356% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $150 60-79 $0.005 1% +103% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $306 160-179 $0.090 17% +93% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $286
lleva 63 · proyeccion 162.8 ± 33.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.002 22% +14269% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $2,515 160-179 $0.015 23% +1471% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $2,828
lleva 160 · proyeccion 190.9 ± 18.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.014 23% +1508% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $5,262
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,181 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5% Sobre-dispersion: 14.27x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 160.7 ± 47.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +674% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $484 60-79 $0.006 3% +326% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $100 80-99 $0.045 6% +24% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $232 200+ $0.175 21% +19% 1.0% moderado $674 120-139 $0.125 13% +7% 0.3% moderado $103
lleva 51 · proyeccion 152.1 ± 38.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 2% +585% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,867 100-119 $0.037 11% +203% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,361 80-99 $0.019 6% +182% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,648 40-59 $0.004 1% +67% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,502 120-139 $0.110 17% +59% 1.8% moderado $951
lleva 145 · proyeccion 165.8 ± 17.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.125 29% +135% 4.8% moderado $2,937 160-179 $0.365 43% +18% 2.5% escalable $3,266
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,576 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.48x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 134.1 ± 27.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.155 25% +59% 2.7% moderado $40 160-179 $0.100 13% +27% 0.8% moderado $30 120-139 $0.230 28% +24% 1.8% escalable $40
lleva 57 · proyeccion 133.9 ± 20.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.067 19% +193% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $533 120-139 $0.205 37% +79% 5.1% escalable $89 60-79 $0.003 0% +30% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $893 140-159 $0.270 29% +6% 0.6% escalable $1,041
lleva 125 · proyeccion 146.6 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.125 25% +100% 3.6% moderado $2,540
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,681 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 97.9 ± 17.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 10% +798% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $266 100-119 $0.066 36% +445% 7.8% cautela (no operable) $447 140-159 $0.005 1% +63% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $291 80-99 $0.325 39% +20% 2.5% escalable $532
lleva 22 · proyeccion 79.5 ± 13.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.046 6% +41% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $160 80-99 $0.315 43% +37% 4.3% escalable $817
lleva 54 · proyeccion 70.8 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.041 11% +177% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,675 40-59 $0.043 6% +38% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $4,464
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 822 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.1 ± 11.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 60% +105% 10.8% escalable $3,062 60-79 $0.112 14% +28% 0.9% moderado $1,941
lleva 8 · proyeccion 36.8 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.015 3% +92% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $2,912 40-59 $0.295 38% +28% 3.0% escalable $5,174
lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.3 ± 4.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 453 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3% Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.0 ± 12.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 15% +1245% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.220 58% +164% 11.6% escalable $1,081
lleva 5 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.215 53% +145% 9.9% escalable $2,267
lleva 5 · proyeccion 10.1 ± 5.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.011 4% +224% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,020
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.3 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.051 14% +184% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.100 18% +79% 2.2% moderado $325 20-24 $0.064 9% +45% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.0 ± 8.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.005 4% +753% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $281 10-14 $0.038 18% +375% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $319 15-19 $0.029 10% +256% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $272
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 5.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.019 9% +389% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $637 5-9 $0.060 29% +379% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $1,280 15-19 $0.011 1% +7% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $438
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.