CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.210	58%	+175%	11.6%	escalable	$968
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.215	57%	+164%	11.2%	escalable	$2,237
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.145	29%	+99%	4.2%	moderado	$1,126
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.205	35%	+72%	4.7%	escalable	$89
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.115	18%	+55%	1.8%	moderado	$325
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.165	25%	+54%	2.7%	moderado	$30
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.140	20%	+46%	1.9%	moderado	$2,507
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.280	39%	+40%	3.9%	escalable	$5,114
Donald Trump	200+	$0.175	23%	+32%	1.7%	moderado	$575
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.470	60%	+27%	6.0%	escalable	$2,145
The White House	180-199	$0.315	39%	+24%	2.8%	escalable	$9,883
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.144	17%	+21%	0.9%	moderado	$447

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,295 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 39% del periodo

lleva 280 · proyeccion 1030.8 ± 138.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.050	59%	+1078%	14.2%	cautela (no operable)	$5,161
960-999	$0.016	11%	+569%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$8,593
920-959	$0.035	9%	+164%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$4,033

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 343.2 ± 93.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
400-419	$0.002	7%	+4313%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$2,514
420-439	$0.002	6%	+3613%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,678
500+	$0.002	5%	+3089%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$17,311
360-379	$0.004	8%	+2232%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,940
380-399	$0.004	8%	+2048%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,210
320-339	$0.007	8%	+1100%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$4,765
340-359	$0.008	8%	+959%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,792
300-319	$0.012	8%	+563%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$3,222
280-299	$0.022	7%	+228%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$5,061
260-279	$0.045	6%	+39%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,540

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 42 · proyeccion 258.9 ± 74.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
360-379	$0.002	4%	+2285%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$16,895
340-359	$0.003	5%	+1950%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$14,429
320-339	$0.004	7%	+1853%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$13,115
380-399	$0.002	2%	+1450%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$21,044
300-319	$0.009	8%	+898%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$21,898
280-299	$0.014	10%	+601%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$20,157
260-279	$0.022	11%	+369%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$12,381
100-119	$0.005	1%	+190%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$43,322
240-259	$0.065	11%	+63%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,951

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 106.8 ± 52.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.003	13%	+5139%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$9,763
165-189	$0.002	8%	+5110%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$8,037
115-139	$0.009	18%	+1965%	4.2%	cautela (no operable)	$6,422
90-114	$0.041	19%	+364%	3.8%	cautela (no operable)	$14,149

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 128 · proyeccion 193.5 ± 41.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
240-259	$0.003	8%	+2991%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$144,419
120-139	$0.003	6%	+2231%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$255,632
220-239	$0.011	13%	+1049%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$109,103
200-219	$0.042	18%	+331%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$106,518

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,465 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.5x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 177.5 ± 45.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.005	6%	+944%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$154
80-99	$0.005	3%	+392%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$254
120-139	$0.021	10%	+378%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$154
140-159	$0.040	14%	+262%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$132
160-179	$0.090	17%	+92%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$286
60-79	$0.005	1%	+91%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$290

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 63 · proyeccion 164.3 ± 34.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.002	21%	+13933%	5.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,515
160-179	$0.015	23%	+1472%	5.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,828

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 160 · proyeccion 192.4 ± 19.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.014	21%	+1387%	4.9%	cautela (no operable)	$5,158
180-199	$0.315	39%	+24%	2.8%	escalable	$9,883

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,181 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 14.27x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 164.0 ± 48.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.002	1%	+589%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$484
60-79	$0.006	2%	+283%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$100
80-99	$0.033	5%	+54%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$232
200+	$0.175	23%	+32%	1.7%	moderado	$575
120-139	$0.120	13%	+6%	0.2%	moderado	$103

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 51 · proyeccion 155.5 ± 38.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.003	2%	+502%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,658
80-99	$0.020	5%	+145%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,439
100-119	$0.043	10%	+140%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,352
40-59	$0.004	1%	+46%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,493
120-139	$0.145	16%	+13%	0.6%	moderado	$942

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 145 · proyeccion 169.2 ± 18.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.085	25%	+190%	4.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,800
180-199	$0.215	24%	+11%	0.7%	escalable	$3,917

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,571 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.49x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 136.0 ± 27.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.165	25%	+54%	2.7%	moderado	$30
120-139	$0.245	28%	+13%	1.1%	escalable	$30

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 57 · proyeccion 135.9 ± 20.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.205	35%	+72%	4.7%	escalable	$89
100-119	$0.144	17%	+21%	0.9%	moderado	$447
140-159	$0.275	30%	+10%	1.0%	escalable	$1,001
60-79	$0.003	0%	+8%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$893

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 125 · proyeccion 148.7 ± 11.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.140	20%	+46%	1.9%	moderado	$2,507
140-159	$0.565	62%	+9%	3.1%	escalable	$3,311

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,681 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.4 ± 17.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.015	15%	+897%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$266
100-119	$0.079	40%	+403%	8.6%	cautela (no operable)	$442
140-159	$0.005	2%	+254%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$291

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 17 · proyeccion 78.9 ± 13.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.048	7%	+39%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$160
80-99	$0.355	42%	+17%	2.4%	escalable	$604

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 49 · proyeccion 70.2 ± 8.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.075	13%	+68%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,525

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 822 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.5 ± 11.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.035	15%	+331%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,845
40-59	$0.470	60%	+27%	6.0%	escalable	$2,145

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 8 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 9.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.015	3%	+80%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,912
40-59	$0.280	39%	+40%	3.9%	escalable	$5,114

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.7 ± 4.7

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 453 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.4 ± 12.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.011	18%	+1539%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$256
20-39	$0.210	58%	+175%	11.6%	escalable	$968
60-79	$0.005	1%	+13%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$215

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 5 · proyeccion 22.0 ± 9.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.215	57%	+164%	11.2%	escalable	$2,237

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 5 · proyeccion 11.5 ± 6.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.013	9%	+590%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,020

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 10.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.056	14%	+159%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$40
10-14	$0.115	18%	+55%	1.8%	moderado	$325
20-24	$0.068	9%	+39%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$30

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 8.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.005	4%	+794%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$278
10-14	$0.035	18%	+426%	3.8%	cautela (no operable)	$316
15-19	$0.052	11%	+101%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$269

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 5.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.027	10%	+273%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$606
5-9	$0.145	29%	+99%	4.2%	moderado	$1,126