Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 40-64 $0.145 41% +185% 7.8% moderado $55,411 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.195 53% +172% 10.4% moderado $704 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.130 31% +136% 5.1% moderado $1,526 Donald Trump 200+ $0.195 34% +74% 4.5% moderado $444 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.205 34% +68% 4.4% escalable $1,826 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.145 24% +67% 2.8% moderado $925 The White House 200+ $0.355 54% +52% 7.2% escalable $50 Ali Khamenei 15-19 $0.102 15% +44% 1.3% moderado $20 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.109 15% +37% 1.1% moderado $1,209 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.315 41% +30% 3.4% escalable $5,007 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.180 23% +26% 1.4% moderado $1,202 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.150 19% +24% 1.1% moderado $592
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,263 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 253 · proyeccion 1041.6 ± 142.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.065 62% +848% 14.8% cautela (no operable) $4,805 960-999 $0.017 10% +517% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $4,533 920-959 $0.040 9% +119% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,693 880-919 $0.050 7% +36% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $2,844
lleva 0 · proyeccion 380.7 ± 98.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 11% +7535% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $7,055 420-439 $0.002 7% +4662% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,253 440-459 $0.002 6% +4123% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,868 380-399 $0.003 8% +3114% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $790 400-419 $0.003 8% +2993% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $790 360-379 $0.005 8% +1357% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $892 340-359 $0.005 8% +1295% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,310 320-339 $0.009 7% +730% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $2,159 300-319 $0.013 6% +379% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,315 280-299 $0.022 5% +134% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $4,487
lleva 15 · proyeccion 269.2 ± 80.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 6% +3916% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $8,476 360-379 $0.002 5% +2947% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,625 320-339 $0.004 7% +2034% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $8,184 300-319 $0.011 9% +692% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $13,625 280-299 $0.013 10% +635% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $11,653 440-459 $0.002 1% +448% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $14,032 260-279 $0.027 10% +265% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $5,280 80-99 $0.003 1% +179% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $39,470 240-259 $0.055 10% +74% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,209
lleva 0 · proyeccion 144.1 ± 60.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 16% +10678% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $631 165-189 $0.002 14% +9304% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $631 115-139 $0.009 16% +1642% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $1,516 90-114 $0.045 13% +183% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $941
lleva 101 · proyeccion 203.8 ± 51.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 7% +4482% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $64,026 240-259 $0.003 10% +4076% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $71,004 220-239 $0.011 14% +1087% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $59,391 200-219 $0.030 15% +404% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $48,874 100-119 $0.009 3% +243% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $152,123 180-199 $0.125 15% +19% 0.7% moderado $80,292
lleva 26 · proyeccion 44.1 ± 21.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 65-89 $0.004 15% +4296% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $87,209 40-64 $0.145 41% +185% 7.8% moderado $55,411
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,434 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.55x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.5 ± 48.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.019 5% +158% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $22 80-99 $0.005 1% +88% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $102 200+ $0.355 54% +52% 7.2% escalable $50 140-159 $0.060 9% +45% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $0 100-119 $0.023 2% +8% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $22
lleva 32 · proyeccion 160.4 ± 38.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.021 20% +849% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $1,324 140-159 $0.036 20% +448% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $1,315
lleva 129 · proyeccion 188.5 ± 26.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.007 10% +1381% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $2,721 160-179 $0.016 23% +1348% 5.5% cautela (no operable) $3,731 120-139 $0.003 3% +964% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,369
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 178.5 ± 50.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 2% +146% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $80 200+ $0.195 34% +74% 4.5% moderado $444 160-179 $0.130 15% +18% 0.7% moderado $126 40-59 $0.005 1% +17% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $442 80-99 $0.030 3% +12% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $203
lleva 19 · proyeccion 138.6 ± 41.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.007 5% +553% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $497 40-59 $0.004 2% +469% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,347 80-99 $0.023 10% +317% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,323 100-119 $0.109 15% +37% 1.1% moderado $1,209 120-139 $0.150 19% +24% 1.1% moderado $592
lleva 113 · proyeccion 152.2 ± 23.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.004 7% +1677% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $4,189 120-139 $0.050 21% +324% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $2,588
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,545 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.51x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 155.3 ± 29.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 32 · proyeccion 130.4 ± 23.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 1% +166% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $713 80-99 $0.045 8% +74% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $269 140-159 $0.145 24% +67% 2.8% moderado $925
lleva 100 · proyeccion 143.1 ± 15.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.205 34% +68% 4.4% escalable $1,826 100-119 $0.050 6% +21% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $827 140-159 $0.395 45% +14% 2.2% escalable $1,973
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,669 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.2 ± 18.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.060 38% +535% 8.5% cautela (no operable) $0 120-139 $0.060 32% +437% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.045 10% +117% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 5 · proyeccion 80.6 ± 15.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.045 10% +127% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $146
lleva 37 · proyeccion 71.9 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.180 23% +26% 1.4% moderado $1,202 60-79 $0.620 65% +5% 2.2% escalable $1,369
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 816 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 12.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 2% +274% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $686 60-79 $0.130 31% +136% 5.1% moderado $1,526 40-59 $0.485 55% +13% 3.0% escalable $2,032
lleva 2 · proyeccion 37.6 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.315 41% +30% 3.4% escalable $5,007
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.710 75% +5% 3.3% escalable $6,926
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.9 ± 13.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.016 29% +1703% 6.9% cautela (no operable) $212 60-79 $0.005 2% +320% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $158 20-39 $0.195 53% +172% 10.4% moderado $704
lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.3 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 4% +712% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $612 20-39 $0.085 52% +513% 11.9% cautela (no operable) $1,492
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.3 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.011 11% +892% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $1,020
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.102 15% +44% 1.3% moderado $20 10-14 $0.140 17% +24% 1.0% moderado $84
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.005 6% +1115% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $278 10-14 $0.070 18% +165% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $316 30-34 $0.005 1% +31% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $278
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.048 15% +210% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $575 15-19 $0.028 4% +53% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $381 5-9 $0.235 28% +20% 1.5% escalable $1,025
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).