CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-10-06 16:49 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.16581%+394%19.4%moderado$30,225
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.19053%+179%10.5%moderado$106
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.10525%+134%3.9%moderado$1,133
Donald Trump200+$0.26054%+106%9.3%escalable$693
CZ (Binance)40-59$0.17033%+92%4.7%moderado$0
Ted Cruz180-199$0.12521%+71%2.5%moderado$0
Ted Cruz200+$0.17526%+46%2.4%moderado$0
The White House180-199$0.10514%+35%1.0%moderado$1,195
CZ (Binance)<20$0.21529%+33%2.3%escalable$100
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.41554%+31%5.5%escalable$0
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.48564%+31%7.3%escalable$90
The White House200+$0.60078%+30%11.4%escalable$68
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 24.76x48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 162 · proyeccion 1138.7 ± 155.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.16581%+394%19.4%moderado$30,225
lleva 0 · proyeccion 387.3 ± 97.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00213%+8304%3.1%cautela (no operable)$6,020
400-419$0.0048%+1882%1.9%cautela (no operable)$10
380-399$0.0048%+1707%1.9%cautela (no operable)$10
420-439$0.0047%+1548%1.8%cautela (no operable)$3,967
360-379$0.0058%+1500%1.9%cautela (no operable)$135
340-359$0.0068%+1062%1.7%cautela (no operable)$110
320-339$0.0097%+704%1.5%cautela (no operable)$532
300-319$0.0156%+296%1.1%cautela (no operable)$48
280-299$0.0205%+147%0.8%cautela (no operable)$34
lleva 0 · proyeccion 265.1 ± 81.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0067%+1003%1.6%cautela (no operable)$9,670
300-319$0.0088%+957%1.9%cautela (no operable)$8,944
360-379$0.0054%+759%0.9%cautela (no operable)$6,215
340-359$0.0076%+663%1.2%cautela (no operable)$5,931
280-299$0.0159%+526%2.0%cautela (no operable)$14,072
380-399$0.0053%+452%0.6%cautela (no operable)$12,216
260-279$0.03210%+206%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,649
80-99$0.0061%+58%0.1%cautela (no operable)$16,204
500+$0.0020%+27%0.0%cautela (no operable)$41,239
60-79$0.0041%+20%0.0%cautela (no operable)$20,368
100-119$0.0142%+12%0.0%cautela (no operable)$18,160
120-139$0.0222%+11%0.1%cautela (no operable)$25,134
lleva 0 · proyeccion 159.4 ± 62.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00316%+6166%3.9%cautela (no operable)$1,124
165-189$0.00415%+3693%3.7%cautela (no operable)$1,138
190-214$0.00513%+2414%3.0%cautela (no operable)$1,284
240+$0.00510%+1922%2.4%cautela (no operable)$1,135
115-139$0.00714%+1876%3.3%cautela (no operable)$112
215-239$0.0059%+1681%2.1%cautela (no operable)$1,140
90-114$0.03510%+199%1.8%cautela (no operable)$480
lleva 101 · proyeccion 221.0 ± 54.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0022%+1268%0.5%cautela (no operable)$23,795
300-319$0.0044%+1030%0.9%cautela (no operable)$37,815
280-299$0.0067%+926%1.5%cautela (no operable)$41,688
100-119$0.0032%+636%0.4%cautela (no operable)$72,762
260-279$0.01410%+603%2.1%cautela (no operable)$34,573
240-259$0.03613%+248%2.4%cautela (no operable)$48,070
120-139$0.0124%+201%0.6%cautela (no operable)$95,997
220-239$0.09514%+51%1.4%cautela (no operable)$40,190
lleva 5 · proyeccion 43.0 ± 30.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.0026%+3573%1.3%cautela (no operable)$24,003
65-89$0.03218%+462%3.8%cautela (no operable)$36,160
40-64$0.28030%+8%0.8%escalable$26,424
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 11.88x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 241.2 ± 53.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.60078%+30%11.4%escalable$68
lleva 1 · proyeccion 158.4 ± 43.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00518%+3482%4.4%cautela (no operable)$165
120-139$0.00515%+2837%3.6%cautela (no operable)$188
100-119$0.00510%+1852%2.3%cautela (no operable)$198
80-99$0.0055%+951%1.2%cautela (no operable)$265
60-79$0.0032%+664%0.5%cautela (no operable)$298
160-179$0.04518%+294%3.5%cautela (no operable)$84
40-59$0.0051%+62%0.1%cautela (no operable)$278
180-199$0.10514%+35%1.0%moderado$1,195
lleva 110 · proyeccion 191.9 ± 31.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01020%+1858%4.7%cautela (no operable)$423
180-199$0.03825%+551%5.5%cautela (no operable)$1,659
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 13.68x37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.2 ± 52.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.26054%+106%9.3%escalable$693
lleva 0 · proyeccion 143.8 ± 44.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0054%+799%1.0%cautela (no operable)$98
40-59$0.0102%+94%0.2%cautela (no operable)$30
80-99$0.0579%+50%0.8%cautela (no operable)$336
120-139$0.13517%+26%1.0%moderado$2,027
100-119$0.12013%+11%0.4%moderado$1,407
lleva 102 · proyeccion 161.5 ± 28.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0106%+456%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,367
120-139$0.07015%+116%2.2%cautela (no operable)$2,370
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.71x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.8 ± 34.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.12521%+71%2.5%moderado$0
200+$0.17526%+46%2.4%moderado$0
160-179$0.17522%+28%1.5%moderado$0
140-159$0.14017%+20%0.8%moderado$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.1 ± 27.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0157%+390%1.5%cautela (no operable)$133
180-199$0.0051%+103%0.1%cautela (no operable)$110
140-159$0.12514%+13%0.5%moderado$130
lleva 53 · proyeccion 112.9 ± 20.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0708%+18%0.3%cautela (no operable)$50
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.59x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 126.6 ± 28.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.08520%+136%3.1%cautela (no operable)$74
160-179$0.0709%+34%0.6%cautela (no operable)$10
lleva 0 · proyeccion 84.4 ± 23.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0103%+154%0.4%cautela (no operable)$70
120-139$0.0266%+126%0.8%cautela (no operable)$86
40-59$0.05912%+100%1.6%cautela (no operable)$85
60-79$0.24027%+13%1.1%escalable$226
lleva 48 · proyeccion 88.9 ± 16.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0054%+540%0.8%cautela (no operable)$354
60-79$0.10525%+134%3.9%moderado$1,133
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 56.0 ± 12.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.00536%+7127%8.9%cautela (no operable)$324
40-59$0.19053%+179%10.5%moderado$106
lleva 0 · proyeccion 38.2 ± 9.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.46052%+14%2.9%escalable$904
lleva 20 · proyeccion 37.7 ± 6.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.07739%+407%8.6%cautela (no operable)$1,026
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0%Sobre-dispersion: 4.35x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 34.7 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0052%+297%0.4%cautela (no operable)$10
40-59$0.17033%+92%4.7%moderado$0
20-39$0.41554%+31%5.5%escalable$0
lleva 2 · proyeccion 25.0 ± 10.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.21529%+33%2.3%escalable$100
20-39$0.48564%+31%7.3%escalable$90
lleva 16 · proyeccion 27.6 ± 7.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0325%+51%0.4%cautela (no operable)$80
<20$0.11013%+15%0.5%moderado$1,831
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 16.44x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.2 ± 11.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.02917%+475%3.6%cautela (no operable)$105
10-14$0.03516%+369%3.3%cautela (no operable)$92
15-19$0.02913%+335%2.5%cautela (no operable)$9
20-24$0.0218%+314%1.6%cautela (no operable)$120
25-29$0.0255%+87%0.6%cautela (no operable)$105
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.6 ± 9.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.00920%+2045%4.9%cautela (no operable)$114
10-14$0.00917%+1640%3.9%cautela (no operable)$127
15-19$0.01510%+608%2.2%cautela (no operable)$160
25-29$0.0152%+23%0.1%cautela (no operable)$72
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.6 ± 6.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.00514%+2622%3.3%cautela (no operable)$596
5-9$0.02726%+869%6.0%cautela (no operable)$613
15-19$0.0054%+712%0.9%cautela (no operable)$567