CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-12 00:41 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.10538%+257%7.5%moderado$0
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.11533%+184%6.0%moderado$1,496
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.19552%+166%10.1%moderado$704
Donald Trump200+$0.18541%+121%6.8%moderado$421
Ted Cruz120-139$0.18532%+75%4.2%moderado$43
The White House200+$0.35555%+55%7.6%escalable$20
Ted Cruz140-159$0.15023%+52%2.3%moderado$254
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.18025%+40%2.2%moderado$1,190
Donald Trump100-119$0.11816%+33%1.1%moderado$1,187
Ali Khamenei15-19$0.11215%+32%1.0%moderado$20
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.31540%+27%3.1%escalable$4,974
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$84
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 248 · proyeccion 1045.0 ± 142.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06562%+862%15.0%cautela (no operable)$4,775
960-999$0.02010%+401%2.0%cautela (no operable)$4,322
920-959$0.0398%+118%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,663
880-919$0.0607%+11%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,814
lleva 0 · proyeccion 389.1 ± 99.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00213%+8864%3.3%cautela (no operable)$6,808
420-439$0.0027%+4803%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,253
440-459$0.0027%+4333%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,868
380-399$0.0038%+3092%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
400-419$0.0038%+3026%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
360-379$0.0058%+1323%1.8%cautela (no operable)$892
340-359$0.0057%+1241%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,310
320-339$0.0117%+536%1.4%cautela (no operable)$778
300-319$0.0156%+275%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,970
280-299$0.0225%+121%0.7%cautela (no operable)$4,358
lleva 10 · proyeccion 272.6 ± 82.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0036%+2406%1.5%cautela (no operable)$8,476
360-379$0.0025%+2321%1.2%cautela (no operable)$4,544
320-339$0.0048%+1809%1.8%cautela (no operable)$7,654
300-319$0.0079%+1070%2.0%cautela (no operable)$10,868
440-459$0.0021%+538%0.2%cautela (no operable)$14,032
280-299$0.01710%+476%2.0%cautela (no operable)$10,641
80-99$0.0021%+442%0.2%cautela (no operable)$33,477
260-279$0.03010%+223%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,024
240-259$0.0659%+44%0.8%cautela (no operable)$4,168
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.5 ± 62.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+10470%3.9%cautela (no operable)$611
165-189$0.00215%+9696%3.6%cautela (no operable)$611
190-214$0.00212%+7652%2.9%cautela (no operable)$88
240+$0.0028%+5356%2.0%cautela (no operable)$946
215-239$0.0028%+5139%1.9%cautela (no operable)$859
115-139$0.00915%+1619%3.5%cautela (no operable)$776
90-114$0.03711%+206%2.0%cautela (no operable)$180
lleva 96 · proyeccion 207.2 ± 53.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0038%+2930%1.8%cautela (no operable)$53,621
240-259$0.00411%+2320%2.6%cautela (no operable)$52,724
100-119$0.0043%+711%0.6%cautela (no operable)$117,047
220-239$0.02114%+534%2.9%cautela (no operable)$38,076
200-219$0.08515%+75%1.7%cautela (no operable)$37,747
lleva 21 · proyeccion 47.5 ± 26.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.0025%+2310%1.2%cautela (no operable)$49,146
65-89$0.02120%+892%4.7%cautela (no operable)$57,392
40-64$0.29536%+23%2.4%escalable$35,827
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.7x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 205.8 ± 49.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0285%+78%0.6%cautela (no operable)$22
80-99$0.0061%+69%0.1%cautela (no operable)$102
200+$0.35555%+55%7.6%escalable$20
lleva 27 · proyeccion 157.0 ± 39.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00920%+2238%4.8%cautela (no operable)$1,078
160-179$0.03019%+542%4.2%cautela (no operable)$1,324
lleva 124 · proyeccion 185.1 ± 26.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0024%+1748%0.9%cautela (no operable)$1,369
140-159$0.00813%+1464%3.0%cautela (no operable)$2,721
160-179$0.04025%+520%5.4%cautela (no operable)$3,731
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 187.4 ± 52.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.18541%+121%6.8%moderado$421
60-79$0.0061%+101%0.1%cautela (no operable)$80
lleva 5 · proyeccion 133.6 ± 43.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0043%+707%0.6%cautela (no operable)$1,347
20-39$0.0021%+595%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,024
60-79$0.0096%+587%1.3%cautela (no operable)$497
80-99$0.05011%+119%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,272
100-119$0.11816%+33%1.1%moderado$1,187
120-139$0.15018%+22%1.0%moderado$547
lleva 99 · proyeccion 147.3 ± 26.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.04411%+150%1.7%cautela (no operable)$2,329
120-139$0.20524%+16%1.0%escalable$2,518
160-179$0.19021%+11%0.6%moderado$2,172
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 160.1 ± 29.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 25 · proyeccion 128.9 ± 24.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0509%+80%1.1%cautela (no operable)$244
120-139$0.18532%+75%4.2%moderado$43
140-159$0.15023%+52%2.3%moderado$254
lleva 93 · proyeccion 141.7 ± 16.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0508%+66%0.9%cautela (no operable)$823
120-139$0.31536%+14%1.6%escalable$1,652
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.9 ± 18.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.06033%+449%7.2%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.10538%+257%7.5%moderado$0
140-159$0.04510%+132%1.6%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 5 · proyeccion 81.3 ± 15.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0507%+47%0.6%cautela (no operable)$20
100-119$0.09011%+24%0.6%cautela (no operable)$146
lleva 37 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 10.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.18025%+40%2.2%moderado$1,190
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 54.7 ± 12.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0022%+1533%0.6%cautela (no operable)$619
60-79$0.11533%+184%6.0%moderado$1,496
40-59$0.48553%+10%2.4%escalable$2,015
lleva 1 · proyeccion 37.3 ± 10.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.31540%+27%3.1%escalable$4,974
lleva 20 · proyeccion 34.6 ± 6.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 33.7 ± 13.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01631%+1815%7.4%cautela (no operable)$212
60-79$0.0053%+406%0.6%cautela (no operable)$158
20-39$0.19552%+166%10.1%moderado$704
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.1 ± 10.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0066%+817%1.2%cautela (no operable)$609
20-39$0.09054%+497%12.3%cautela (no operable)$1,405
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.1 ± 7.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01114%+1160%3.2%cautela (no operable)$1,012
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.11215%+32%1.0%moderado$20
10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$84
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.08518%+117%2.7%cautela (no operable)$272
20-24$0.0416%+50%0.5%cautela (no operable)$253
30-34$0.0051%+31%0.0%cautela (no operable)$253
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.06615%+125%2.2%cautela (no operable)$575
15-19$0.0294%+50%0.4%cautela (no operable)$381
5-9$0.23528%+20%1.5%escalable$1,025