Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.165 59% +259% 12.8% moderado $83 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,108 The White House 140-159 $0.130 33% +157% 5.8% moderado $3,373 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.290 65% +125% 12.8% escalable $154 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.170 36% +114% 5.9% moderado $1,709 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.115 25% +113% 3.7% moderado $500 CZ (Binance) 40-59 $0.105 21% +104% 3.0% moderado $60 The White House 200+ $0.220 44% +101% 7.1% escalable $24 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 120-139 $0.130 24% +88% 3.3% moderado $0 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.145 24% +69% 2.9% moderado $18,414 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.170 28% +65% 3.3% moderado $180 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.115 18% +61% 2.0% moderado $639
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,832 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2476.0 ± 251.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,108
lleva 0 · proyeccion 372.8 ± 97.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 10% +6396% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $7,237 420-439 $0.002 7% +4494% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $512 400-419 $0.003 8% +2938% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $5,333 380-399 $0.005 8% +1360% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,627 360-379 $0.007 8% +986% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,538 340-359 $0.013 8% +534% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,752 320-339 $0.017 7% +348% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $638 300-319 $0.021 7% +222% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $353 280-299 $0.028 6% +106% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $406
lleva 39 · proyeccion 263.2 ± 75.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 3% +1659% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $10,883 360-379 $0.003 4% +1479% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $15,331 340-359 $0.004 6% +1277% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $16,586 400-419 $0.002 2% +998% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $16,167 320-339 $0.008 7% +797% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $16,151 300-319 $0.011 9% +658% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $12,094 280-299 $0.018 10% +465% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $6,709 260-279 $0.038 10% +172% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $7,333 80-99 $0.003 1% +157% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $34,026 240-259 $0.065 10% +59% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $5,277
lleva 0 · proyeccion 140.2 ± 59.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.004 14% +3819% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $440 140-164 $0.004 16% +3501% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $25 215-239 $0.003 6% +2250% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $8 190-214 $0.005 10% +1856% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $8 115-139 $0.011 16% +1436% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $87 240+ $0.005 5% +875% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $8 90-114 $0.055 14% +146% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $37
lleva 96 · proyeccion 194.4 ± 50.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.004 5% +1062% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $38,897 240-259 $0.011 9% +729% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $36,841 280-299 $0.004 3% +667% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $35,881 300-319 $0.003 1% +372% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $36,165 220-239 $0.034 12% +270% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $39,594 100-119 $0.012 4% +221% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $109,589 320-339 $0.002 0% +195% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $35,921 200-219 $0.085 15% +78% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $35,119
lleva 819 · proyeccion 896.5 ± 44.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 960-999 $0.008 7% +756% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $34,024 920-959 $0.032 22% +612% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $30,277 800-839 $0.036 9% +138% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $85,518 1000+ $0.008 1% +31% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $25,624 880-919 $0.280 35% +23% 2.3% escalable $27,387
lleva 10 · proyeccion 71.4 ± 39.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.009 10% +1026% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $31,942 140-164 $0.004 3% +741% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $8,865 90-114 $0.033 19% +462% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $19,502 165-189 $0.002 1% +436% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $10,257 65-89 $0.145 24% +69% 2.9% moderado $18,414
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,905 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9% Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x 27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 192.9 ± 44.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.033 7% +102% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $8 200+ $0.220 44% +101% 7.1% escalable $24 140-159 $0.065 11% +71% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $12
lleva 35 · proyeccion 157.0 ± 35.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 9% +2985% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $141 120-139 $0.026 17% +526% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $239 80-99 $0.011 4% +244% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $126 140-159 $0.064 22% +243% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $254 60-79 $0.005 1% +106% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $186
lleva 113 · proyeccion 157.9 ± 21.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 16% +3071% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $2,061 140-159 $0.130 33% +157% 5.8% moderado $3,373
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,663 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.9 ± 54.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 2% +266% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $147 120-139 $0.026 7% +156% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $269 60-79 $0.005 1% +64% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $161 100-119 $0.025 4% +53% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $140 160-179 $0.105 13% +22% 0.6% moderado $289
lleva 43 · proyeccion 158.3 ± 41.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 15% +4924% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $404 100-119 $0.003 10% +3112% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $301 80-99 $0.006 5% +716% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $192 60-79 $0.003 2% +558% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $204 140-159 $0.032 19% +485% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $424 40-59 $0.003 1% +111% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $759 160-179 $0.115 18% +61% 2.0% moderado $639
lleva 158 · proyeccion 211.3 ± 28.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.005 10% +1818% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $2,631 180-199 $0.065 21% +220% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $3,309
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,965 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6% Sobre-dispersion: 7.14x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 153.0 ± 33.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.095 13% +38% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $24
lleva 24 · proyeccion 120.2 ± 26.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 15% +2711% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $178 100-119 $0.048 27% +478% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $139 60-79 $0.025 5% +104% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $115 120-139 $0.170 28% +65% 3.3% moderado $180
lleva 126 · proyeccion 161.6 ± 15.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.170 36% +114% 5.9% moderado $1,709 120-139 $0.060 8% +31% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $808 160-179 $0.385 42% +10% 1.5% escalable $169
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,964 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.8 ± 29.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.130 24% +88% 3.3% moderado $0 100-119 $0.200 26% +30% 1.9% escalable $75 140-159 $0.130 15% +13% 0.5% moderado $0
lleva 14 · proyeccion 87.1 ± 23.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.075 22% +187% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $464 40-59 $0.059 10% +65% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $243 20-39 $0.011 2% +56% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $145
lleva 97 · proyeccion 128.8 ± 15.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 3% +432% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $887 100-119 $0.160 24% +52% 2.5% moderado $1,196 140-159 $0.197 22% +12% 0.7% moderado $723
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 899 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.1 ± 12.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 23% +3778% 5.7% cautela (no operable) $67 40-59 $0.165 59% +259% 12.8% moderado $83 80-99 $0.005 1% +60% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $67
lleva 3 · proyeccion 33.2 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.011 7% +516% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $351 40-59 $0.115 25% +113% 3.7% moderado $500
lleva 23 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 5.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.075 22% +195% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $1,894
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 524 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.0 ± 12.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.105 21% +104% 3.0% moderado $60 60-79 $0.006 1% +34% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $60
lleva 14 · proyeccion 33.2 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.020 8% +314% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $154 20-39 $0.290 65% +125% 12.8% escalable $154
lleva 34 · proyeccion 41.4 ± 6.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.315 38% +21% 2.4% escalable $4,320
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.6 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.040 8% +109% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $0 5-9 $0.170 19% +12% 0.6% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.050 24% +389% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $677 20-24 $0.006 2% +306% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $251 15-19 $0.020 8% +293% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $225 10-14 $0.062 17% +171% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $361
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 4.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 4% +670% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,485 5-9 $0.049 23% +369% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $1,016
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).