CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.185	46%	+150%	8.5%	moderado	$1,056
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.140	34%	+140%	5.7%	moderado	$1,451
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.120	29%	+139%	4.7%	moderado	$2,433
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.105	20%	+92%	2.7%	moderado	$4,463
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.305	54%	+76%	8.3%	escalable	$2,199
Ted Cruz	160-179	$0.275	46%	+66%	6.3%	escalable	$1,052
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.300	40%	+34%	3.7%	escalable	$4,155
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.395	53%	+34%	5.5%	escalable	$3,364
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.205	25%	+22%	1.4%	escalable	$584
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.165	19%	+16%	0.8%	moderado	$1,520
Ted Cruz	180-199	$0.290	33%	+15%	1.5%	escalable	$373
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.275	31%	+13%	1.2%	escalable	$625

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,361 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 48% del periodo

lleva 348 · proyeccion 987.8 ± 128.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.060	46%	+672%	10.7%	cautela (no operable)	$6,478
960-999	$0.022	12%	+451%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$9,396
920-959	$0.056	12%	+107%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$4,524

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 11 · proyeccion 244.4 ± 77.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
300-319	$0.002	7%	+3517%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$41,883
340-359	$0.002	4%	+2636%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$35,742
320-339	$0.003	6%	+2153%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$49,138
280-299	$0.005	9%	+1638%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$19,222
260-279	$0.011	10%	+749%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$7,732
60-79	$0.002	1%	+438%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$18,751
240-259	$0.022	10%	+356%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$6,253
80-99	$0.004	1%	+250%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$47,741
220-239	$0.055	10%	+84%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$5,241

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 110 · proyeccion 217.5 ± 52.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
260-279	$0.004	9%	+2559%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$67,568
300-319	$0.002	3%	+2107%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$70,272
280-299	$0.004	6%	+1604%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$69,667
240-259	$0.011	13%	+994%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$62,513
120-139	$0.011	4%	+258%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$128,433
220-239	$0.045	15%	+227%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$40,001

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,527 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 26 · proyeccion 151.2 ± 37.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.005	21%	+4079%	5.1%	cautela (no operable)	$588
120-139	$0.005	18%	+3461%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$533
100-119	$0.005	12%	+2205%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$571
80-99	$0.004	6%	+1317%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$747
60-79	$0.004	2%	+429%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$781
160-179	$0.044	19%	+323%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$936

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 132 · proyeccion 180.6 ± 23.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.011	30%	+2482%	7.2%	cautela (no operable)	$4,942

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,255 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x30 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 52 · proyeccion 172.4 ± 41.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.090	11%	+25%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$697
160-179	$0.165	19%	+16%	0.8%	moderado	$1,520
100-119	$0.059	6%	+5%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$628

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 131 · proyeccion 191.9 ± 29.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.105	20%	+92%	2.7%	moderado	$4,463
140-159	$0.075	10%	+31%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$3,001

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,655 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 39 · proyeccion 136.1 ± 24.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.275	31%	+13%	1.2%	escalable	$625

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 136 · proyeccion 175.2 ± 15.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.002	1%	+391%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,267
140-159	$0.050	14%	+185%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,058
160-179	$0.275	46%	+66%	6.3%	escalable	$1,052
180-199	$0.290	33%	+15%	1.5%	escalable	$373

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,701 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 13 · proyeccion 83.6 ± 15.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.011	14%	+1209%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$562
80-99	$0.185	46%	+150%	8.5%	moderado	$1,056
120-139	$0.004	1%	+143%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$322

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 45 · proyeccion 75.5 ± 9.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.140	34%	+140%	5.7%	moderado	$1,451
100-119	$0.006	1%	+27%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$214

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 833 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 5 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 9.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.021	3%	+55%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,240
40-59	$0.300	40%	+34%	3.7%	escalable	$4,155
60-79	$0.009	1%	+23%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$2,444

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.1 ± 6.4

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 460 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 2 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 10.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.009	4%	+335%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$463
20-39	$0.305	54%	+76%	8.3%	escalable	$2,199

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 12 · proyeccion 20.0 ± 6.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.395	53%	+34%	5.5%	escalable	$3,364

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.1 ± 7.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.005	8%	+1480%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$280
20-24	$0.005	2%	+374%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$180
10-14	$0.080	17%	+116%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$372
5-9	$0.205	25%	+22%	1.4%	escalable	$584

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.9 ± 4.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.007	7%	+813%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,081
5-9	$0.120	29%	+139%	4.7%	moderado	$2,433
15-19	$0.004	1%	+57%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$901