CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-09 15:14 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.15574%+377%17.3%moderado$4,207
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.15043%+185%8.2%moderado$777
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.15041%+175%7.7%moderado$74
Ted Cruz140-159$0.24545%+84%6.8%escalable$2,625
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.32557%+77%9.2%escalable$743
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.10517%+66%1.9%moderado$0
Donald Trump200+$0.24540%+62%5.0%escalable$1,030
Donald Trump160-179$0.15523%+49%2.3%moderado$2,339
Ted Cruz140-159$0.18027%+48%2.6%moderado$216
Donald Trump120-139$0.11517%+46%1.5%moderado$1,468
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.43059%+38%7.1%escalable$1,350
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.39051%+32%5.0%escalable$3,524
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 204 · proyeccion 1096.7 ± 151.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.15574%+377%17.3%moderado$4,207
960-999$0.0448%+76%0.9%cautela (no operable)$2,903
Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 356.4 ± 95.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.0027%+4358%1.6%cautela (no operable)$20,143
420-439$0.0026%+4053%1.5%cautela (no operable)$3,979
400-419$0.0047%+1943%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,258
380-399$0.0048%+1865%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,062
360-379$0.0088%+933%1.9%cautela (no operable)$983
340-359$0.0098%+776%1.9%cautela (no operable)$965
320-339$0.0108%+702%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,528
300-319$0.0187%+323%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,434
280-299$0.0297%+129%0.9%cautela (no operable)$4,588
Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 52 · proyeccion 255.9 ± 72.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0025%+3084%1.2%cautela (no operable)$37,249
300-319$0.0058%+1423%2.0%cautela (no operable)$25,157
320-339$0.0047%+1360%1.5%cautela (no operable)$33,298
380-399$0.0022%+1238%0.5%cautela (no operable)$33,951
280-299$0.01310%+691%2.2%cautela (no operable)$22,462
100-119$0.0041%+308%0.3%cautela (no operable)$57,248
260-279$0.02811%+287%2.1%cautela (no operable)$12,343
240-259$0.06511%+69%1.2%cautela (no operable)$8,024
120-139$0.0172%+46%0.2%cautela (no operable)$44,460
Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.2 ± 55.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00210%+6862%2.6%cautela (no operable)$711
140-164$0.00315%+5923%3.7%cautela (no operable)$662
115-139$0.01118%+1590%4.2%cautela (no operable)$160
90-114$0.04517%+280%3.3%cautela (no operable)$321
Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 136 · proyeccion 213.3 ± 44.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0034%+1580%1.0%cautela (no operable)$90,023
260-279$0.0058%+1375%1.9%cautela (no operable)$78,164
240-259$0.01913%+559%2.8%cautela (no operable)$84,024
140-159$0.0116%+516%1.4%cautela (no operable)$114,394
220-239$0.06517%+156%2.7%cautela (no operable)$75,932
Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 50% del periodo
lleva 20 · proyeccion 59.1 ± 31.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.0023%+2193%0.8%cautela (no operable)$31,412
90-114$0.00913%+1410%3.0%cautela (no operable)$52,415
65-89$0.09526%+178%4.7%cautela (no operable)$44,208
<40$0.22524%+6%0.4%escalable$49,975
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 182.0 ± 46.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0059%+1553%2.1%cautela (no operable)$120
100-119$0.0055%+838%1.2%cautela (no operable)$110
140-159$0.03013%+346%2.7%cautela (no operable)$248
80-99$0.0052%+344%0.5%cautela (no operable)$139
60-79$0.0051%+75%0.1%cautela (no operable)$169
White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 35 · proyeccion 148.8 ± 36.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00419%+5245%4.6%cautela (no operable)$374
100-119$0.00412%+3409%3.0%cautela (no operable)$439
140-159$0.02921%+625%4.8%cautela (no operable)$826
White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 120 · proyeccion 158.2 ± 21.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00416%+3792%3.8%cautela (no operable)$1,766
140-159$0.08533%+293%6.8%cautela (no operable)$5,131
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 186.0 ± 51.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.24540%+62%5.0%escalable$1,030
160-179$0.12515%+16%0.6%moderado$474
20-39$0.0020%+12%0.0%cautela (no operable)$567
180-199$0.14015%+9%0.4%moderado$555
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 48 · proyeccion 153.5 ± 39.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0075%+673%1.2%cautela (no operable)$671
60-79$0.0052%+318%0.4%cautela (no operable)$917
40-59$0.0021%+315%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,343
100-119$0.03911%+178%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,353
120-139$0.11517%+46%1.5%moderado$1,468
140-159$0.16520%+22%1.1%moderado$936
160-179$0.16019%+16%0.8%moderado$1,292
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 142 · proyeccion 188.7 ± 25.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.04710%+116%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,961
160-179$0.15523%+49%2.3%moderado$2,339
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 140.4 ± 27.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.05017%+232%3.0%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.18027%+48%2.6%moderado$216
180-199$0.0456%+41%0.5%cautela (no operable)$0
120-139$0.20026%+30%1.9%escalable$0
Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 36 · proyeccion 121.2 ± 21.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.07413%+76%1.5%cautela (no operable)$412
60-79$0.0183%+40%0.2%cautela (no operable)$124
100-119$0.27031%+15%1.4%escalable$293
Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 130 · proyeccion 159.1 ± 12.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0046%+1631%1.4%cautela (no operable)$946
140-159$0.24545%+84%6.8%escalable$2,625
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 105.5 ± 18.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.05519%+243%3.5%cautela (no operable)$40
100-119$0.15041%+175%7.7%moderado$74
140-159$0.0253%+9%0.1%cautela (no operable)$12
Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 19 · proyeccion 83.0 ± 14.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.09512%+21%0.6%cautela (no operable)$452
80-99$0.43548%+10%2.0%escalable$629
Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 49 · proyeccion 72.5 ± 8.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.18520%+10%0.6%moderado$2,330
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 49.8 ± 12.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.07420%+174%3.5%cautela (no operable)$753
40-59$0.43059%+38%7.1%escalable$1,350
NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 12 · proyeccion 40.2 ± 9.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0081%+42%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,369
40-59$0.39051%+32%5.0%escalable$3,524
NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 27 · proyeccion 36.8 ± 5.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.62069%+12%4.9%escalable$4,936
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.0 ± 12.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.02619%+634%4.3%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.32557%+77%9.2%escalable$743
CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 18.1 ± 9.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.15043%+185%8.2%moderado$777
40-59$0.0062%+131%0.2%cautela (no operable)$358
CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 6 · proyeccion 12.4 ± 5.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.04011%+184%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,976
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.2 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0052%+289%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.04514%+212%2.5%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0469%+100%1.2%cautela (no operable)$11
10-14$0.10517%+66%1.9%moderado$0
25-29$0.0435%+14%0.2%cautela (no operable)$70
Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.1 ± 8.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03417%+402%3.5%cautela (no operable)$234
15-19$0.0199%+358%1.7%cautela (no operable)$118
20-24$0.0183%+72%0.3%cautela (no operable)$117
Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 4.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.07023%+223%4.2%cautela (no operable)$4,136
10-14$0.0174%+171%0.7%cautela (no operable)$2,415