Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.140 39% +181% 7.4% moderado $4,109 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.255 51% +99% 8.4% escalable $2,395 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.460 89% +93% 19.8% escalable $3,833 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.105 18% +73% 2.1% moderado $1,207 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.335 56% +68% 8.5% escalable $2,901 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.235 39% +64% 4.9% escalable $1,466 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.175 26% +50% 2.7% moderado $742 The White House 160-179 $0.433 50% +15% 2.9% escalable $17,956 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.540 57% +6% 1.9% escalable $2,406 Elon Musk 140-159 $0.172 18% +6% 0.3% moderado $378,443
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,405 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 394 · proyeccion 943.4 ± 118.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.021 32% +1380% 7.6% cautela (no operable) $7,169 960-999 $0.018 13% +631% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $11,231 920-959 $0.048 13% +182% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $5,484 880-919 $0.065 13% +92% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $5,196
lleva 57 · proyeccion 202.7 ± 61.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 7% +4694% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $57,492 240-259 $0.004 10% +2060% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $48,312 220-239 $0.011 12% +928% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $24,897 200-219 $0.038 13% +236% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $23,273 60-79 $0.004 1% +174% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $78,559 180-199 $0.085 13% +49% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $46,973 80-99 $0.018 2% +32% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $122,338
lleva 156 · proyeccion 175.8 ± 22.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200-219 $0.004 12% +2577% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $171,139 180-199 $0.019 29% +1379% 6.9% cautela (no operable) $199,361 140-159 $0.172 18% +6% 0.3% moderado $378,443
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,574 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.38x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 66 · proyeccion 149.8 ± 30.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.006 21% +3073% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $1,086 140-159 $0.034 25% +647% 5.7% cautela (no operable) $1,609
lleva 172 · proyeccion 179.2 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.009 1% +30% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $10,369 160-179 $0.433 50% +15% 2.9% escalable $17,956
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 129.1 ± 30.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 11% +2769% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $1,769 100-119 $0.015 21% +1249% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $1,078 60-79 $0.004 4% +1100% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $5,289 120-139 $0.044 25% +471% 5.5% cautela (no operable) $1,013 140-159 $0.055 21% +274% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $2,234
lleva 141 · proyeccion 148.6 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.003 14% +5666% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $12,424
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,686 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 70 · proyeccion 133.1 ± 19.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.070 20% +185% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,179 120-139 $0.235 39% +64% 4.9% escalable $1,466
lleva 167 · proyeccion 172.3 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.460 89% +93% 19.8% escalable $3,833
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,716 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.22x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 20 · proyeccion 68.5 ± 12.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.105 18% +73% 2.1% moderado $1,207 60-79 $0.540 57% +6% 1.9% escalable $2,406
lleva 52 · proyeccion 60.3 ± 5.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.335 56% +68% 8.5% escalable $2,901
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 847 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 37.1 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +123% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,824
lleva 33 · proyeccion 34.8 ± 2.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 464 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 6 · proyeccion 19.9 ± 8.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.003 1% +274% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $503 20-39 $0.255 51% +99% 8.4% escalable $2,395
lleva 16 · proyeccion 18.5 ± 3.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.140 39% +181% 7.4% moderado $4,109
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.0 ± 6.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 5% +734% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $367 10-14 $0.029 15% +413% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $471 20-24 $0.005 1% +99% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.175 26% +50% 2.7% moderado $742
lleva 1 · proyeccion 1.8 ± 3.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.021 18% +741% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $2,904 10-14 $0.004 1% +21% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,322
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).