CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-12 16:40 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12841%+224%8.2%moderado$385
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.23557%+141%10.8%escalable$968
The White House180-199$0.14532%+117%5.0%moderado$7,834
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.27058%+113%10.4%escalable$2,173
Donald Trump120-139$0.12023%+89%3.0%moderado$2,860
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.11522%+87%2.8%moderado$6,528
Ted Cruz120-139$0.21537%+70%4.8%escalable$2,149
Donald Trump200+$0.17529%+66%3.5%moderado$575
The White House160-179$0.10014%+45%1.2%moderado$108
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.29040%+39%3.9%escalable$5,036
Donald Trump120-139$0.14519%+32%1.4%moderado$734
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.13517%+29%1.1%moderado$104
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 261 · proyeccion 1029.9 ± 140.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.04559%+1202%14.2%cautela (no operable)$5,131
960-999$0.01111%+912%2.4%cautela (no operable)$6,280
920-959$0.0199%+373%1.9%cautela (no operable)$3,035
880-919$0.0457%+64%0.8%cautela (no operable)$3,010
lleva 0 · proyeccion 361.3 ± 96.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.0028%+4929%1.9%cautela (no operable)$17,054
400-419$0.0027%+4768%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,494
420-439$0.0026%+4194%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,673
380-399$0.0038%+3071%1.9%cautela (no operable)$810
360-379$0.0048%+2256%2.0%cautela (no operable)$2,558
340-359$0.0058%+1394%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,310
320-339$0.0078%+945%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,159
300-319$0.0127%+497%1.5%cautela (no operable)$2,627
280-299$0.0226%+185%1.0%cautela (no operable)$4,717
lleva 23 · proyeccion 257.9 ± 77.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0024%+2345%0.9%cautela (no operable)$9,542
340-359$0.0035%+1952%1.2%cautela (no operable)$10,223
320-339$0.0047%+1819%1.6%cautela (no operable)$9,257
300-319$0.0068%+1166%1.9%cautela (no operable)$15,492
280-299$0.0119%+721%2.1%cautela (no operable)$15,306
260-279$0.02110%+372%2.0%cautela (no operable)$6,763
80-99$0.0031%+294%0.2%cautela (no operable)$42,309
240-259$0.05510%+85%1.2%cautela (no operable)$4,812
220-239$0.08510%+13%0.3%cautela (no operable)$3,074
lleva 0 · proyeccion 124.8 ± 56.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+10306%3.9%cautela (no operable)$3,930
165-189$0.00212%+7571%2.8%cautela (no operable)$4,261
115-139$0.00617%+2812%4.2%cautela (no operable)$3,875
90-114$0.03016%+429%3.4%cautela (no operable)$6,324
lleva 109 · proyeccion 192.5 ± 46.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240-259$0.0038%+3144%2.0%cautela (no operable)$90,214
260-279$0.0024%+2820%1.1%cautela (no operable)$97,670
220-239$0.01112%+1090%2.9%cautela (no operable)$77,110
200-219$0.04916%+230%2.9%cautela (no operable)$85,060
120-139$0.0517%+35%0.5%cautela (no operable)$177,401
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.53x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 195.1 ± 47.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0063%+460%0.7%cautela (no operable)$22
120-139$0.0217%+210%1.1%cautela (no operable)$22
80-99$0.0051%+164%0.2%cautela (no operable)$122
140-159$0.05011%+112%1.5%cautela (no operable)$0
160-179$0.10014%+45%1.2%moderado$108
lleva 48 · proyeccion 166.9 ± 37.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00619%+2842%4.7%cautela (no operable)$2,057
160-179$0.01121%+1831%5.1%cautela (no operable)$1,867
lleva 145 · proyeccion 195.0 ± 24.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01119%+1626%4.5%cautela (no operable)$3,815
140-159$0.0056%+978%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,800
180-199$0.14532%+117%5.0%moderado$7,834
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 171.9 ± 49.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0021%+440%0.2%cautela (no operable)$449
60-79$0.0062%+205%0.3%cautela (no operable)$100
80-99$0.0224%+84%0.5%cautela (no operable)$232
200+$0.17529%+66%3.5%moderado$575
160-179$0.14016%+14%0.6%moderado$326
lleva 24 · proyeccion 137.1 ± 40.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0055%+894%1.1%cautela (no operable)$758
40-59$0.0042%+459%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,443
80-99$0.01910%+408%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,439
100-119$0.06616%+138%2.4%cautela (no operable)$1,324
120-139$0.14519%+32%1.4%moderado$734
lleva 118 · proyeccion 150.7 ± 21.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.12023%+89%3.0%moderado$2,860
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 150.4 ± 28.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 36 · proyeccion 129.5 ± 22.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0031%+324%0.2%cautela (no operable)$713
80-99$0.0508%+58%0.8%cautela (no operable)$269
120-139$0.30534%+12%1.3%escalable$89
lleva 104 · proyeccion 142.2 ± 14.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0316%+83%0.7%cautela (no operable)$907
120-139$0.21537%+70%4.8%escalable$2,149
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 107.2 ± 18.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.02521%+746%4.8%cautela (no operable)$204
140-159$0.0054%+614%0.8%cautela (no operable)$234
100-119$0.12841%+224%8.2%moderado$385
lleva 11 · proyeccion 77.7 ± 14.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0466%+36%0.4%cautela (no operable)$146
40-59$0.08010%+22%0.5%cautela (no operable)$32
lleva 43 · proyeccion 69.0 ± 9.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.59574%+24%8.7%escalable$1,635
80-99$0.10012%+21%0.6%moderado$1,509
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.7 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.09525%+165%4.3%cautela (no operable)$1,806
80-99$0.0051%+117%0.2%cautela (no operable)$686
40-59$0.47058%+23%5.0%escalable$2,129
lleva 4 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 9.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.29040%+39%3.9%escalable$5,036
lleva 23 · proyeccion 34.8 ± 5.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.11522%+87%2.8%moderado$6,528
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.2 ± 12.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01122%+1914%5.3%cautela (no operable)$256
20-39$0.23557%+141%10.8%escalable$968
60-79$0.0051%+96%0.1%cautela (no operable)$215
lleva 4 · proyeccion 22.6 ± 10.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.27058%+113%10.4%escalable$2,173
40-59$0.0255%+88%0.6%cautela (no operable)$896
lleva 4 · proyeccion 12.1 ± 6.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01113%+1121%3.1%cautela (no operable)$1,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.3 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.04815%+211%2.6%cautela (no operable)$40
20-24$0.06110%+68%1.1%cautela (no operable)$30
10-14$0.13517%+29%1.1%moderado$104
25-29$0.0566%+7%0.1%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.0 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0056%+1088%1.4%cautela (no operable)$278
10-14$0.03418%+442%3.9%cautela (no operable)$316
15-19$0.03612%+235%2.2%cautela (no operable)$269
30-34$0.0051%+24%0.0%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.1 ± 6.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.04015%+264%2.7%cautela (no operable)$575
15-19$0.0174%+137%0.6%cautela (no operable)$381
5-9$0.22528%+26%1.9%escalable$1,057
20-24$0.0051%+20%0.0%cautela (no operable)$589