CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-15 22:31 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.11528%+148%4.8%moderado$2,503
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.20047%+137%8.6%escalable$1,075
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.21037%+77%5.1%escalable$1,588
Ted Cruz160-179$0.28549%+71%7.1%escalable$1,173
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.30552%+70%7.7%escalable$2,252
Ted Cruz120-139$0.25032%+28%2.3%escalable$626
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.33042%+26%3.2%escalable$4,155
Donald Trump160-179$0.15519%+24%1.1%moderado$1,550
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.39549%+24%3.9%escalable$3,364
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.20525%+22%1.4%escalable$584
The White House180-199$0.30533%+9%1.0%escalable$10,126
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 355 · proyeccion 987.9 ± 127.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06046%+673%10.7%cautela (no operable)$6,478
960-999$0.02512%+389%2.5%cautela (no operable)$9,540
920-959$0.06912%+70%1.3%cautela (no operable)$4,615
lleva 18 · proyeccion 245.2 ± 76.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0026%+3691%1.4%cautela (no operable)$51,658
300-319$0.0037%+2343%1.8%cautela (no operable)$42,411
280-299$0.0049%+1861%2.1%cautela (no operable)$29,424
260-279$0.00910%+944%2.3%cautela (no operable)$10,627
240-259$0.02310%+353%2.1%cautela (no operable)$7,441
80-99$0.0051%+139%0.2%cautela (no operable)$55,333
220-239$0.05510%+86%1.2%cautela (no operable)$5,950
lleva 117 · proyeccion 218.4 ± 50.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0026%+3862%1.4%cautela (no operable)$76,239
300-319$0.0023%+2037%0.8%cautela (no operable)$72,001
260-279$0.0049%+2003%2.3%cautela (no operable)$69,800
240-259$0.01113%+1025%3.0%cautela (no operable)$69,603
220-239$0.04715%+223%2.8%cautela (no operable)$48,211
120-139$0.0133%+177%0.6%cautela (no operable)$142,144
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 33 · proyeccion 154.3 ± 37.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00521%+4112%5.2%cautela (no operable)$588
120-139$0.00517%+3315%4.2%cautela (no operable)$563
80-99$0.0025%+2298%1.1%cautela (no operable)$747
100-119$0.00510%+1986%2.5%cautela (no operable)$601
60-79$0.0022%+731%0.4%cautela (no operable)$781
160-179$0.02820%+599%4.3%cautela (no operable)$976
lleva 139 · proyeccion 183.7 ± 22.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01528%+1796%6.8%cautela (no operable)$5,512
180-199$0.30533%+9%1.0%escalable$10,126
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 176.8 ± 40.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.07010%+43%0.8%cautela (no operable)$697
100-119$0.0405%+27%0.3%cautela (no operable)$628
160-179$0.15519%+24%1.1%moderado$1,550
lleva 141 · proyeccion 196.2 ± 28.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.04018%+351%3.6%cautela (no operable)$4,617
140-159$0.0407%+84%0.9%cautela (no operable)$3,063
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 41 · proyeccion 134.6 ± 23.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.25032%+28%2.3%escalable$626
lleva 138 · proyeccion 173.8 ± 14.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0021%+380%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,267
140-159$0.05016%+211%2.8%cautela (no operable)$2,060
160-179$0.28549%+71%7.1%escalable$1,173
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 15 · proyeccion 84.7 ± 15.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.01115%+1342%3.6%cautela (no operable)$562
120-139$0.0041%+183%0.2%cautela (no operable)$322
80-99$0.20047%+137%8.6%escalable$1,075
lleva 47 · proyeccion 76.6 ± 9.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0031%+210%0.2%cautela (no operable)$276
40-59$0.0174%+141%0.6%cautela (no operable)$1,191
80-99$0.21037%+77%5.1%escalable$1,588
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 7 · proyeccion 37.8 ± 9.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0051%+84%0.1%cautela (no operable)$2,474
40-59$0.33042%+26%3.2%escalable$4,155
<20$0.0213%+19%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,240
lleva 23 · proyeccion 35.5 ± 6.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 20.7 ± 10.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0093%+230%0.5%cautela (no operable)$463
20-39$0.30552%+70%7.7%escalable$2,252
lleva 12 · proyeccion 19.3 ± 6.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.39549%+24%3.9%escalable$3,364
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0058%+1454%1.8%cautela (no operable)$280
20-24$0.0052%+360%0.5%cautela (no operable)$180
10-14$0.08017%+115%2.5%cautela (no operable)$372
5-9$0.20525%+22%1.4%escalable$584
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0066%+900%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,152
5-9$0.11528%+148%4.8%moderado$2,503
15-19$0.0020%+142%0.1%cautela (no operable)$972