Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.165 36% +117% 5.8% moderado $3,006 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.295 54% +84% 8.8% escalable $3,753 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.245 45% +82% 6.7% escalable $4,653 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.110 19% +73% 2.2% moderado $325 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.190 31% +62% 3.6% moderado $472 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.355 57% +61% 8.4% escalable $1,223 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.260 39% +51% 4.5% escalable $1,140 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.310 45% +46% 5.2% escalable $579 The White House 180-199 $0.295 43% +45% 4.7% escalable $12,744 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.285 39% +37% 3.7% escalable $5,403 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.495 64% +29% 7.0% escalable $2,605 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.320 39% +22% 2.6% escalable $891
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,317 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.71x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 320 · proyeccion 1032.2 ± 135.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.050 60% +1091% 14.4% cautela (no operable) $5,585 960-999 $0.023 11% +374% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $8,688 920-959 $0.052 9% +79% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,043
lleva 0 · proyeccion 305.0 ± 88.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 4% +2898% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,609 360-379 $0.003 7% +2663% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $3,308 380-399 $0.004 6% +1533% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,680 320-339 $0.005 9% +1474% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $5,118 340-359 $0.005 8% +1342% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,959 500+ $0.002 1% +837% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $18,278 300-319 $0.011 9% +755% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $7,675 280-299 $0.025 9% +254% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $7,134 80-99 $0.003 0% +88% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $21,558 260-279 $0.045 8% +84% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,544
lleva 82 · proyeccion 261.2 ± 67.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 7% +4623% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $16,615 340-359 $0.002 5% +3270% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $20,350 300-319 $0.006 9% +1301% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $32,411 120-139 $0.003 2% +502% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $57,858 280-299 $0.018 11% +497% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $27,220 260-279 $0.047 12% +147% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $24,620 240-259 $0.096 12% +21% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $21,406
lleva 30 · proyeccion 99.1 ± 42.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.004 11% +3001% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $13,766 165-189 $0.002 4% +2859% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $10,270 <40 $0.004 7% +1640% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $47,232 115-139 $0.043 19% +333% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $20,573 90-114 $0.213 23% +9% 0.6% escalable $31,412
lleva 168 · proyeccion 195.8 ± 26.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.002 4% +2732% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $210,432 220-239 $0.009 14% +1338% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $201,261 200-219 $0.092 26% +180% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $211,468
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,485 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.38x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 156.1 ± 42.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 10% +1774% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $255 120-139 $0.011 15% +1303% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $229 80-99 $0.005 6% +903% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $371 60-79 $0.005 2% +330% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $404 140-159 $0.047 19% +294% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $263 160-179 $0.095 18% +88% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $400
lleva 93 · proyeccion 172.6 ± 30.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 20% +2914% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $2,642 160-179 $0.011 26% +2366% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $2,983
lleva 190 · proyeccion 200.7 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.295 43% +45% 4.7% escalable $12,744
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,189 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.4% Sobre-dispersion: 14.31x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.0 ± 46.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 2% +985% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $509 60-79 $0.006 4% +477% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $100 80-99 $0.056 7% +30% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $232 20-39 $0.005 1% +18% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $281
lleva 74 · proyeccion 165.7 ± 36.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 1% +180% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,907 80-99 $0.011 3% +140% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,873 120-139 $0.089 13% +50% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,093 100-119 $0.059 7% +13% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,482
lleva 168 · proyeccion 179.3 ± 12.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.245 45% +82% 6.7% escalable $4,653
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,593 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.47x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 121.7 ± 25.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 4% +763% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $18 40-59 $0.005 1% +45% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $88 120-139 $0.245 29% +18% 1.4% escalable $228 80-99 $0.130 14% +11% 0.4% moderado $36
lleva 80 · proyeccion 144.2 ± 18.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 1% +106% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $346 120-139 $0.190 31% +62% 3.6% moderado $472 140-159 $0.260 39% +51% 4.5% escalable $1,140 100-119 $0.064 8% +34% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $553
lleva 148 · proyeccion 157.0 ± 7.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.165 36% +117% 5.8% moderado $3,006
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,692 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 89.7 ± 16.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 4% +677% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $271 100-119 $0.046 24% +419% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $452 80-99 $0.310 45% +46% 5.2% escalable $579
lleva 28 · proyeccion 77.1 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.320 39% +22% 2.6% escalable $891
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.4 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 824 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 42.5 ± 11.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.295 54% +84% 8.8% escalable $3,753
lleva 13 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.285 39% +37% 3.7% escalable $5,403 <20 $0.016 2% +10% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $3,026
lleva 32 · proyeccion 34.7 ± 2.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.025 5% +77% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $7,480
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.5 ± 11.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 10% +811% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.355 57% +61% 8.4% escalable $1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 23.0 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.495 64% +29% 7.0% escalable $2,605
lleva 10 · proyeccion 12.5 ± 3.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.002 3% +1391% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,138
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.7 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.050 13% +159% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.110 19% +73% 2.2% moderado $325 20-24 $0.051 7% +32% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 7.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.027 18% +576% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $462 15-19 $0.016 8% +380% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $274 20-24 $0.005 2% +300% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $283
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.6 ± 2.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.059 22% +278% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $1,440
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).