Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.165 76% +361% 17.8% moderado $3,568 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.155 41% +162% 7.4% moderado $24 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.220 47% +112% 7.9% escalable $777 Donald Trump 200+ $0.235 44% +86% 6.6% escalable $1,010 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.325 57% +74% 8.9% escalable $22 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.145 25% +72% 3.0% moderado $21,550 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.150 24% +58% 2.5% moderado $4,106 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.280 43% +53% 5.2% escalable $2,464 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.135 20% +50% 1.9% moderado $2,316 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.145 22% +50% 2.1% moderado $331 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.175 24% +40% 2.1% moderado $0 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.430 58% +36% 6.7% escalable $1,330
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,209 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 195 · proyeccion 1107.6 ± 152.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.165 76% +361% 17.8% moderado $3,568
lleva 0 · proyeccion 375.7 ± 98.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 10% +6787% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $17,644 420-439 $0.002 7% +4564% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $3,969 440-459 $0.002 6% +3986% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $9,584 400-419 $0.003 8% +2964% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,829 380-399 $0.004 8% +2200% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $755 360-379 $0.007 8% +982% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $827 340-359 $0.009 8% +823% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $865 320-339 $0.011 7% +593% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,146 300-319 $0.018 6% +270% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $537 280-299 $0.029 6% +94% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $3,224
lleva 43 · proyeccion 265.9 ± 75.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.003 6% +2193% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $31,041 320-339 $0.004 7% +2017% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $27,483 380-399 $0.002 3% +1755% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $33,459 300-319 $0.007 9% +1091% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $21,376 280-299 $0.015 10% +548% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $19,635 100-119 $0.004 1% +256% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $53,194 260-279 $0.035 11% +205% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $10,567 240-259 $0.075 10% +37% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $7,252 120-139 $0.017 2% +22% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $32,900
lleva 0 · proyeccion 138.2 ± 59.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 14% +6654% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $597 140-164 $0.003 16% +6389% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $582 190-214 $0.002 9% +4625% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $129 240+ $0.002 4% +2850% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $338 215-239 $0.002 6% +2677% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $126 115-139 $0.011 16% +1458% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $80 90-114 $0.050 14% +177% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $258
lleva 127 · proyeccion 223.4 ± 49.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 4% +2312% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $74,380 280-299 $0.004 7% +1802% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $71,087 320-339 $0.002 2% +1017% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $56,166 260-279 $0.013 10% +735% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $67,623 240-259 $0.035 14% +292% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $61,824 140-159 $0.028 5% +95% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $96,362 220-239 $0.095 16% +67% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $60,184
lleva 11 · proyeccion 69.2 ± 38.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 3% +1729% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $10,827 115-139 $0.005 9% +1462% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $18,831 90-114 $0.024 18% +647% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $26,492 65-89 $0.145 25% +72% 3.0% moderado $21,550
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,338 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 185.7 ± 47.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 8% +1417% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $102 100-119 $0.005 5% +743% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $92 80-99 $0.005 2% +292% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $129 140-159 $0.040 13% +218% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $248 60-79 $0.005 1% +52% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $159 160-179 $0.150 16% +6% 0.3% moderado $419
lleva 33 · proyeccion 150.4 ± 37.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 18% +5065% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $361 100-119 $0.004 12% +3257% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $426 140-159 $0.019 21% +1008% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $594
lleva 118 · proyeccion 159.8 ± 22.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 15% +3142% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,667 140-159 $0.053 31% +490% 6.8% cautela (no operable) $4,651
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,083 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 191.1 ± 52.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.235 44% +86% 6.6% escalable $1,010 180-199 $0.125 15% +21% 0.7% moderado $447 160-179 $0.125 14% +11% 0.4% moderado $474
lleva 47 · proyeccion 157.6 ± 39.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.004 2% +356% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $681 80-99 $0.017 5% +180% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $658 100-119 $0.040 10% +143% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,218 40-59 $0.003 1% +118% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $633 160-179 $0.155 19% +22% 1.0% moderado $1,292 140-159 $0.160 19% +21% 1.0% moderado $936 180-199 $0.130 14% +11% 0.4% moderado $1,234
lleva 141 · proyeccion 192.8 ± 27.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.045 9% +91% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,796 160-179 $0.135 20% +50% 1.9% moderado $2,316
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,484 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 143.9 ± 28.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.095 27% +186% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $0 120-139 $0.175 24% +40% 2.1% moderado $0 160-179 $0.145 19% +29% 1.2% moderado $0
lleva 33 · proyeccion 121.7 ± 22.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.061 13% +113% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $376 60-79 $0.018 3% +44% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $97
lleva 127 · proyeccion 159.6 ± 13.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 7% +474% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $886 140-159 $0.280 43% +53% 5.2% escalable $2,464
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,650 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.4 ± 18.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.037 28% +644% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $20 140-159 $0.018 7% +260% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $12 100-119 $0.155 41% +162% 7.4% moderado $24
lleva 18 · proyeccion 88.9 ± 14.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.145 22% +50% 2.1% moderado $331
lleva 48 · proyeccion 78.3 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.355 44% +24% 3.2% escalable $2,101
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 804 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.1 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.072 24% +226% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $713 40-59 $0.430 58% +36% 6.7% escalable $1,330
lleva 9 · proyeccion 38.5 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.008 2% +154% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,364 40-59 $0.390 44% +14% 2.2% escalable $3,290
lleva 24 · proyeccion 35.1 ± 5.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.675 78% +15% 7.9% escalable $4,663
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.2 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.037 22% +493% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.325 57% +74% 8.9% escalable $22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 2% +323% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $217 20-39 $0.220 47% +112% 7.9% escalable $777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.6 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.055 18% +221% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $2,924
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.005 2% +317% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $12 15-19 $0.055 14% +157% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $0 20-24 $0.043 9% +119% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $10 25-29 $0.040 5% +29% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $70 10-14 $0.145 17% +20% 0.8% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.050 17% +249% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $229 20-24 $0.013 3% +174% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $112
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.015 6% +268% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,398 5-9 $0.150 24% +58% 2.5% moderado $4,106
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.