CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-12 11:25 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk40-64$0.14545%+214%9.1%moderado$74,256
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.10031%+206%5.7%moderado$1,636
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21554%+151%10.4%escalable$854
Ted Cruz120-139$0.16036%+124%5.9%moderado$1,895
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.20940%+93%6.1%escalable$276
Donald Trump200+$0.18532%+75%4.3%moderado$575
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.15524%+57%2.6%moderado$5,840
Ted Cruz140-159$0.15524%+52%2.4%moderado$945
Elon Musk180-199$0.10516%+49%1.4%moderado$86,417
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.44561%+36%7.3%escalable$1,915
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.30041%+36%3.9%escalable$5,036
Donald Trump100-119$0.11416%+36%1.2%moderado$1,274
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 257 · proyeccion 1038.1 ± 141.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.05561%+1004%14.6%cautela (no operable)$4,942
960-999$0.01810%+490%2.2%cautela (no operable)$4,673
920-959$0.0409%+124%1.3%cautela (no operable)$2,693
880-919$0.0457%+55%0.7%cautela (no operable)$2,939
lleva 0 · proyeccion 373.4 ± 97.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00210%+6483%2.4%cautela (no operable)$14,615
400-419$0.0028%+4971%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,474
420-439$0.0027%+4507%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,653
380-399$0.0038%+3112%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
360-379$0.0048%+1708%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,448
340-359$0.0058%+1337%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,310
320-339$0.0087%+820%1.6%cautela (no operable)$4,159
300-319$0.0137%+406%1.3%cautela (no operable)$2,515
280-299$0.0226%+151%0.9%cautela (no operable)$4,487
lleva 19 · proyeccion 266.1 ± 79.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0024%+2777%1.0%cautela (no operable)$5,502
320-339$0.0047%+1983%1.7%cautela (no operable)$8,184
340-359$0.0036%+1829%1.4%cautela (no operable)$9,258
300-319$0.0069%+1337%2.0%cautela (no operable)$14,897
280-299$0.01110%+733%2.1%cautela (no operable)$12,887
260-279$0.02410%+325%2.0%cautela (no operable)$5,525
80-99$0.0031%+246%0.1%cautela (no operable)$39,608
240-259$0.05510%+78%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,646
220-239$0.0859%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$2,458
lleva 0 · proyeccion 137.0 ± 59.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+10690%4.0%cautela (no operable)$1,601
165-189$0.00213%+8795%3.3%cautela (no operable)$1,618
115-139$0.00716%+2097%4.0%cautela (no operable)$1,541
90-114$0.04114%+248%2.6%cautela (no operable)$1,061
lleva 105 · proyeccion 200.7 ± 49.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0026%+4014%1.5%cautela (no operable)$87,511
240-259$0.00310%+3862%2.4%cautela (no operable)$76,825
100-119$0.0033%+1103%0.7%cautela (no operable)$225,053
220-239$0.01114%+1077%3.1%cautela (no operable)$63,402
200-219$0.02516%+543%3.4%cautela (no operable)$55,583
180-199$0.10516%+49%1.4%moderado$86,417
lleva 30 · proyeccion 41.0 ± 16.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
65-89$0.0028%+5122%1.9%cautela (no operable)$128,069
40-64$0.14545%+214%9.1%moderado$74,256
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.55x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.0 ± 48.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0225%+132%0.7%cautela (no operable)$22
140-159$0.0409%+119%1.2%cautela (no operable)$0
80-99$0.0051%+91%0.1%cautela (no operable)$102
160-179$0.07513%+70%1.4%cautela (no operable)$108
100-119$0.0193%+29%0.1%cautela (no operable)$22
200+$0.43554%+24%4.5%escalable$220
lleva 34 · proyeccion 161.9 ± 38.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.02420%+713%4.4%cautela (no operable)$1,370
160-179$0.02920%+607%4.5%cautela (no operable)$1,329
lleva 131 · proyeccion 190.0 ± 26.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0049%+2268%2.3%cautela (no operable)$2,751
160-179$0.01322%+1678%5.3%cautela (no operable)$3,780
180-199$0.24030%+24%1.9%escalable$6,803
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.5 ± 50.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0062%+162%0.3%cautela (no operable)$80
200+$0.18532%+75%4.3%moderado$575
80-99$0.0254%+45%0.3%cautela (no operable)$222
40-59$0.0051%+25%0.0%cautela (no operable)$442
160-179$0.13016%+20%0.7%moderado$326
lleva 19 · proyeccion 136.5 ± 41.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0042%+513%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,412
60-79$0.0095%+450%1.1%cautela (no operable)$612
80-99$0.01910%+432%2.1%cautela (no operable)$1,389
100-119$0.11416%+36%1.2%moderado$1,274
120-139$0.15019%+26%1.1%moderado$657
lleva 113 · proyeccion 150.2 ± 23.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0038%+3026%1.9%cautela (no operable)$4,233
120-139$0.05923%+289%4.5%cautela (no operable)$2,684
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 154.5 ± 29.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 32 · proyeccion 129.6 ± 23.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0051%+180%0.2%cautela (no operable)$713
80-99$0.0458%+81%1.0%cautela (no operable)$269
140-159$0.15524%+52%2.4%moderado$945
lleva 100 · proyeccion 142.4 ± 15.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0186%+269%1.2%cautela (no operable)$827
120-139$0.16036%+124%5.9%moderado$1,895
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.8 ± 18.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0057%+1296%1.6%cautela (no operable)$234
120-139$0.03828%+638%6.4%cautela (no operable)$204
100-119$0.20940%+93%6.1%escalable$276
160-179$0.0051%+18%0.0%cautela (no operable)$226
lleva 7 · proyeccion 79.2 ± 14.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0508%+66%0.9%cautela (no operable)$146
60-79$0.38541%+8%1.2%escalable$482
lleva 39 · proyeccion 70.5 ± 9.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.14018%+28%1.1%moderado$1,449
60-79$0.63069%+9%3.9%escalable$1,411
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 12.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0052%+274%0.4%cautela (no operable)$686
60-79$0.10031%+206%5.7%moderado$1,636
40-59$0.48555%+13%3.0%escalable$2,050
lleva 2 · proyeccion 37.6 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.30041%+36%3.9%escalable$5,036
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 6.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.15524%+57%2.6%moderado$5,840
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.3 ± 13.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01627%+1608%6.5%cautela (no operable)$217
60-79$0.0052%+257%0.4%cautela (no operable)$163
20-39$0.21554%+151%10.4%escalable$854
lleva 4 · proyeccion 24.6 ± 10.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0168%+397%1.6%cautela (no operable)$771
20-39$0.44561%+36%7.3%escalable$1,915
lleva 4 · proyeccion 13.7 ± 7.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01121%+1806%5.0%cautela (no operable)$1,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.04815%+211%2.6%cautela (no operable)$40
20-24$0.05310%+94%1.3%cautela (no operable)$30
25-29$0.0416%+49%0.5%cautela (no operable)$30
10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$104
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0056%+1115%1.4%cautela (no operable)$278
10-14$0.07018%+165%3.1%cautela (no operable)$316
15-19$0.08812%+38%0.9%cautela (no operable)$269
30-34$0.0051%+31%0.0%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02615%+461%3.1%cautela (no operable)$575
15-19$0.0154%+176%0.7%cautela (no operable)$381
5-9$0.22528%+25%1.8%escalable$1,057