CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-10 23:04 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.25058%+132%11.0%escalable$1,246
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12025%+108%3.7%moderado$74
The White House160-179$0.12024%+104%3.5%moderado$2,882
Ted Cruz100-119$0.16528%+69%3.4%moderado$415
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.33555%+65%8.2%escalable$3,131
Elon Musk65-89$0.15523%+51%2.3%moderado$9,449
Ted Cruz120-139$0.27540%+45%4.3%escalable$560
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.17025%+44%2.3%moderado$749
The White House160-179$0.45257%+26%5.4%escalable$12,094
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.36544%+21%3.0%escalable$849
Donald Trump160-179$0.38044%+16%2.4%escalable$4,629
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.40545%+12%2.0%escalable$247
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.57x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 231 · proyeccion 1071.1 ± 146.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.08569%+709%16.5%cautela (no operable)$4,582
960-999$0.0389%+135%1.3%cautela (no operable)$4,006
920-959$0.0657%+12%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,442
lleva 0 · proyeccion 304.7 ± 88.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0024%+2882%1.1%cautela (no operable)$7,978
380-399$0.0036%+2180%1.4%cautela (no operable)$3,340
440-459$0.0022%+1476%0.6%cautela (no operable)$10,735
360-379$0.0047%+1433%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,223
340-359$0.0058%+1343%1.9%cautela (no operable)$4,694
320-339$0.0069%+1234%2.0%cautela (no operable)$2,182
500+$0.0021%+812%0.3%cautela (no operable)$23,444
300-319$0.0159%+481%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,341
280-299$0.0259%+263%1.6%cautela (no operable)$7,651
80-99$0.0030%+87%0.1%cautela (no operable)$16,613
260-279$0.0458%+85%1.0%cautela (no operable)$1,052
lleva 0 · proyeccion 194.0 ± 70.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240+$0.00326%+10261%6.4%cautela (no operable)$252
190-214$0.00314%+4566%3.4%cautela (no operable)$38
165-189$0.00314%+4463%3.4%cautela (no operable)$561
215-239$0.00313%+4112%3.1%cautela (no operable)$38
140-164$0.00412%+3276%2.9%cautela (no operable)$561
115-139$0.0089%+1026%2.1%cautela (no operable)$560
90-114$0.0456%+35%0.4%cautela (no operable)$69
lleva 79 · proyeccion 231.7 ± 62.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0024%+2415%0.9%cautela (no operable)$45,340
300-319$0.0036%+1864%1.4%cautela (no operable)$40,979
280-299$0.0048%+1748%2.0%cautela (no operable)$35,266
260-279$0.01111%+864%2.4%cautela (no operable)$24,825
80-99$0.0021%+551%0.2%cautela (no operable)$62,702
240-259$0.02912%+314%2.4%cautela (no operable)$19,888
100-119$0.0062%+194%0.3%cautela (no operable)$71,963
220-239$0.08513%+50%1.1%cautela (no operable)$18,982
lleva 4 · proyeccion 72.0 ± 41.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.00410%+2792%2.5%cautela (no operable)$5,353
90-114$0.01518%+1164%4.3%cautela (no operable)$8,436
65-89$0.15523%+51%2.3%moderado$9,449
lleva 163 · proyeccion 189.1 ± 25.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240-259$0.0022%+1396%0.5%cautela (no operable)$148,779
220-239$0.0099%+1010%2.2%cautela (no operable)$125,898
200-219$0.09522%+136%3.6%cautela (no operable)$147,687
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.87x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 154.4 ± 42.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00416%+3376%3.8%cautela (no operable)$605
100-119$0.00511%+2052%2.6%cautela (no operable)$605
80-99$0.0056%+1095%1.4%cautela (no operable)$634
60-79$0.0053%+436%0.6%cautela (no operable)$654
140-159$0.03518%+424%3.9%cautela (no operable)$865
160-179$0.16017%+9%0.4%moderado$1,097
lleva 80 · proyeccion 165.9 ± 31.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.02122%+930%5.0%cautela (no operable)$1,880
120-139$0.02413%+446%2.7%cautela (no operable)$1,142
160-179$0.12024%+104%3.5%moderado$2,882
lleva 165 · proyeccion 175.3 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.45257%+26%5.4%escalable$12,094
200+$0.0111%+25%0.1%cautela (no operable)$13,362
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 155.6 ± 47.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0031%+467%0.3%cautela (no operable)$339
20-39$0.0021%+242%0.1%cautela (no operable)$687
80-99$0.0456%+42%0.5%cautela (no operable)$973
60-79$0.0283%+20%0.1%cautela (no operable)$331
lleva 66 · proyeccion 141.4 ± 33.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0097%+743%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,628
60-79$0.0042%+580%0.5%cautela (no operable)$2,629
100-119$0.07215%+109%2.1%cautela (no operable)$1,851
lleva 160 · proyeccion 176.6 ± 15.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.38044%+16%2.4%escalable$4,629
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.7 ± 25.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0215%+136%0.7%cautela (no operable)$511
lleva 62 · proyeccion 126.5 ± 18.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0307%+134%1.0%cautela (no operable)$439
100-119$0.16528%+69%3.4%moderado$415
120-139$0.27540%+45%4.3%escalable$560
lleva 156 · proyeccion 164.4 ± 6.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.08024%+196%4.2%cautela (no operable)$4,096
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.2 ± 16.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12025%+108%3.7%moderado$74
120-139$0.0254%+54%0.3%cautela (no operable)$90
80-99$0.40545%+12%2.0%escalable$247
lleva 30 · proyeccion 79.2 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.36544%+21%3.0%escalable$849
100-119$0.0455%+8%0.1%cautela (no operable)$570
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.6 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 43.0 ± 11.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0092%+112%0.2%cautela (no operable)$635
40-59$0.33555%+65%8.2%escalable$3,131
lleva 16 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 7.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+162%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,660
40-59$0.36039%+9%1.2%escalable$4,357
20-39$0.56559%+5%1.6%escalable$5,563
lleva 31 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 3.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0253%+24%0.1%cautela (no operable)$5,831
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.8 ± 11.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00612%+1770%2.9%cautela (no operable)$368
20-39$0.25058%+132%11.0%escalable$1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 14.8 ± 9.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.05030%+498%6.5%cautela (no operable)$961
lleva 6 · proyeccion 9.2 ± 4.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.3 ± 10.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+153%0.2%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.05513%+145%2.1%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0358%+130%1.2%cautela (no operable)$12
10-14$0.09018%+98%2.4%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02916%+432%3.3%cautela (no operable)$470
15-19$0.0297%+125%0.9%cautela (no operable)$279
20-24$0.0112%+54%0.2%cautela (no operable)$275
5-9$0.17025%+44%2.3%moderado$749
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.8 ± 3.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0020%+117%0.1%cautela (no operable)$3,629
5-9$0.06013%+115%1.8%cautela (no operable)$5,667