Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Donald Trump 140-159 $0.105 22% +108% 3.1% moderado $1,904 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.170 35% +107% 5.5% moderado $1,250 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.260 52% +102% 8.9% escalable $2,307 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.185 32% +74% 4.2% moderado $1,194 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.275 47% +69% 6.6% escalable $3,863 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.170 26% +54% 2.8% moderado $9,471 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.180 26% +43% 2.4% moderado $682 The White House 160-179 $0.145 20% +38% 1.6% moderado $2,078 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.395 47% +19% 3.0% escalable $4,698 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.575 62% +8% 2.8% escalable $2,270
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,397 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 382 · proyeccion 957.8 ± 121.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.035 37% +944% 8.6% cautela (no operable) $7,032 960-999 $0.021 13% +528% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $10,780 920-959 $0.045 13% +184% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $5,151 880-919 $0.065 12% +80% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $4,795
lleva 45 · proyeccion 216.1 ± 66.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 9% +5699% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $44,701 280-299 $0.002 7% +4252% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $54,244 240-259 $0.006 11% +1528% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $19,812 220-239 $0.021 12% +474% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $15,151 80-99 $0.004 2% +334% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $84,809 200-219 $0.065 12% +84% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $18,323
lleva 144 · proyeccion 189.3 ± 34.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.003 5% +1919% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $117,039 220-239 $0.007 12% +1574% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $94,897 260-279 $0.002 2% +936% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $100,712 200-219 $0.036 19% +433% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $106,300 140-159 $0.096 12% +24% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $270,234
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,553 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 46 · proyeccion 151.9 ± 34.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 11% +7205% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $750 140-159 $0.021 23% +953% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $1,157 160-179 $0.145 20% +38% 1.6% moderado $2,078
lleva 152 · proyeccion 181.4 ± 18.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.029 34% +1086% 8.1% cautela (no operable) $10,098
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 153.1 ± 36.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 5% +1093% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,673 100-119 $0.015 11% +613% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $982 120-139 $0.025 18% +610% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $773 60-79 $0.006 2% +142% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $5,027 140-159 $0.105 22% +108% 3.1% moderado $1,904
lleva 141 · proyeccion 172.6 ± 21.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.029 36% +1119% 8.5% cautela (no operable) $6,882
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,670 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 54 · proyeccion 132.5 ± 21.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.060 21% +248% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $1,140 120-139 $0.170 35% +107% 5.5% moderado $1,250
lleva 151 · proyeccion 171.6 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.040 14% +241% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $2,392 160-179 $0.575 62% +8% 2.8% escalable $2,270
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 74.4 ± 13.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 3% +205% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $586 80-99 $0.185 32% +74% 4.2% moderado $1,194
lleva 49 · proyeccion 66.3 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.018 4% +107% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $2,090
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 844 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.0 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +132% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,824 40-59 $0.395 47% +19% 3.0% escalable $4,698
lleva 30 · proyeccion 36.7 ± 4.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.170 26% +54% 2.8% moderado $9,471
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 463 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 20.5 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 2% +199% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $473 20-39 $0.260 52% +102% 8.9% escalable $2,307
lleva 15 · proyeccion 19.1 ± 4.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.275 47% +69% 6.6% escalable $3,863
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 6% +981% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.050 16% +226% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.005 2% +225% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.180 26% +43% 2.4% moderado $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.3 ± 3.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 3% +479% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,262 5-9 $0.049 26% +423% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $2,813
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).