CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.115	38%	+227%	7.4%	moderado	$0
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.195	53%	+172%	10.4%	moderado	$704
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	60-79	$0.125	31%	+145%	5.2%	moderado	$1,526
Elon Musk	40-64	$0.155	37%	+142%	6.5%	moderado	$42,160
Donald Trump	200+	$0.185	34%	+85%	4.8%	moderado	$431
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.195	33%	+68%	4.1%	moderado	$89
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.240	38%	+59%	4.7%	escalable	$1,826
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.140	22%	+58%	2.4%	moderado	$925
The White House	200+	$0.355	54%	+52%	7.2%	escalable	$20
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.170	25%	+46%	2.3%	moderado	$1,202
Ali Khamenei	15-19	$0.105	15%	+40%	1.2%	moderado	$20
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.315	41%	+30%	3.4%	escalable	$5,007

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,263 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 39% del periodo

lleva 248 · proyeccion 1041.5 ± 142.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.065	62%	+848%	14.7%	cautela (no operable)	$4,805
960-999	$0.017	10%	+516%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$4,533
920-959	$0.040	9%	+119%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,693
880-919	$0.045	7%	+51%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$2,844

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 385.6 ± 99.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
500+	$0.002	13%	+8297%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,018
420-439	$0.002	7%	+4749%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,253
440-459	$0.002	7%	+4250%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,868
380-399	$0.003	8%	+3104%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$790
400-419	$0.003	8%	+3015%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$790
360-379	$0.005	8%	+1338%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$892
340-359	$0.005	8%	+1264%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,310
320-339	$0.009	7%	+704%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$2,159
300-319	$0.013	6%	+360%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,315
280-299	$0.023	5%	+119%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$4,487

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 10 · proyeccion 269.1 ± 81.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
360-379	$0.002	5%	+2958%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$4,589
340-359	$0.002	6%	+2908%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$8,476
320-339	$0.004	7%	+2023%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$8,180
300-319	$0.006	9%	+1230%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$11,803
280-299	$0.013	9%	+658%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$11,046
440-459	$0.002	1%	+468%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$14,032
260-279	$0.021	10%	+354%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$5,160
80-99	$0.003	1%	+248%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$34,589
240-259	$0.055	9%	+73%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$4,187

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 149.0 ± 61.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.002	16%	+10579%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$631
165-189	$0.002	14%	+9560%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$631
115-139	$0.009	15%	+1486%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$796
90-114	$0.044	12%	+174%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$941

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 96 · proyeccion 203.7 ± 52.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
260-279	$0.002	7%	+4535%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$62,399
240-259	$0.004	10%	+2863%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$64,859
220-239	$0.013	13%	+893%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$52,796
200-219	$0.024	15%	+539%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$42,491
100-119	$0.011	3%	+194%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$143,328
180-199	$0.075	15%	+94%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$69,533

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 44.0 ± 24.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
65-89	$0.009	17%	+1884%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$70,293
40-64	$0.155	37%	+142%	6.5%	moderado	$42,160

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,434 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.55x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.5 ± 48.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.020	5%	+152%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$22
80-99	$0.005	1%	+88%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$102
200+	$0.355	54%	+52%	7.2%	escalable	$20
140-159	$0.065	9%	+33%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$0
100-119	$0.023	2%	+8%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$22

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 32 · proyeccion 160.4 ± 38.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.029	20%	+592%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,315
160-179	$0.032	20%	+523%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,324

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 129 · proyeccion 188.5 ± 26.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.013	23%	+1682%	5.5%	cautela (no operable)	$3,731
140-159	$0.007	10%	+1381%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,721

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 178.9 ± 50.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.006	2%	+143%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$80
200+	$0.185	34%	+85%	4.8%	moderado	$431
160-179	$0.130	15%	+18%	0.7%	moderado	$126
40-59	$0.005	1%	+15%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$442

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 19 · proyeccion 138.9 ± 41.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.009	5%	+470%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$497
40-59	$0.004	2%	+462%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,347
80-99	$0.019	10%	+400%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,323
100-119	$0.096	15%	+55%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,209
120-139	$0.150	19%	+24%	1.0%	moderado	$592

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 113 · proyeccion 152.6 ± 23.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.004	7%	+1896%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$4,189
120-139	$0.045	21%	+364%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,588

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,545 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.51x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 157.7 ± 29.5

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 27 · proyeccion 127.8 ± 23.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.045	9%	+110%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$269
60-79	$0.011	2%	+74%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$573
120-139	$0.195	33%	+68%	4.1%	moderado	$89
140-159	$0.140	22%	+58%	2.4%	moderado	$925

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 95 · proyeccion 140.6 ± 15.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.050	9%	+74%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$827
120-139	$0.240	38%	+59%	4.7%	escalable	$1,826

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,669 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.8 ± 18.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.060	33%	+447%	7.1%	cautela (no operable)	$0
100-119	$0.115	38%	+227%	7.4%	moderado	$0
140-159	$0.045	10%	+130%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$30

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 5 · proyeccion 81.2 ± 15.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.070	11%	+57%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$146

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 37 · proyeccion 72.5 ± 10.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.170	25%	+46%	2.3%	moderado	$1,202

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 816 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 12.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.005	2%	+274%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$686
60-79	$0.125	31%	+145%	5.2%	moderado	$1,526
40-59	$0.485	55%	+13%	3.0%	escalable	$2,032

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 2 · proyeccion 37.6 ± 10.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.315	41%	+30%	3.4%	escalable	$5,007

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 6.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.705	75%	+6%	3.7%	escalable	$6,926

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.9 ± 13.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.016	29%	+1703%	6.9%	cautela (no operable)	$212
60-79	$0.005	2%	+320%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$158
20-39	$0.195	53%	+172%	10.4%	moderado	$704

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.3 ± 10.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.005	4%	+712%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$609
20-39	$0.085	52%	+513%	11.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,492

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.3 ± 7.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.011	11%	+892%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,012

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.105	15%	+40%	1.2%	moderado	$20
10-14	$0.140	17%	+24%	1.0%	moderado	$84

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.005	6%	+1115%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$278
10-14	$0.070	18%	+165%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$316
30-34	$0.005	1%	+31%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$278

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.062	15%	+138%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$575
15-19	$0.029	4%	+48%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$381
5-9	$0.240	28%	+17%	1.4%	escalable	$1,025