Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.295 58% +96% 10.1% escalable $3,482 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.115 19% +69% 2.2% moderado $6,915 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.170 28% +66% 3.4% moderado $1,495 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.114 16% +39% 1.2% moderado $81,749 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.410 46% +11% 1.9% escalable $2,052
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,462 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 455 · proyeccion 955.5 ± 113.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.015 35% +2150% 8.5% cautela (no operable) $7,528 960-999 $0.018 14% +641% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $11,920 920-959 $0.026 14% +434% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $5,958 880-919 $0.090 12% +38% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $5,961
lleva 118 · proyeccion 214.7 ± 49.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 9% +5739% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $83,551 240-259 $0.004 13% +2681% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $90,932 120-139 $0.006 4% +525% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $158,594 220-239 $0.028 15% +445% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $79,975 200-219 $0.114 16% +39% 1.2% moderado $81,749
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,600 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 92 · proyeccion 151.8 ± 26.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.006 9% +1210% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,780 120-139 $0.041 21% +421% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $2,009
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 101.8 ± 23.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 31% +15408% 7.7% cautela (no operable) $4,094 80-99 $0.003 29% +11400% 7.1% cautela (no operable) $4,288 140-159 $0.004 5% +1117% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $5,195
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,699 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 6.04x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 83 · proyeccion 126.7 ± 16.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.170 28% +66% 3.4% moderado $1,495 120-139 $0.410 46% +11% 1.9% escalable $2,052 80-99 $0.041 5% +10% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $512
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,726 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.23x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 30 · proyeccion 63.0 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.295 58% +96% 10.1% escalable $3,482 80-99 $0.036 6% +54% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,560
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 850 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 20 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.115 19% +69% 2.2% moderado $6,915
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 464 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 6 · proyeccion 15.7 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.035 30% +753% 6.8% cautela (no operable) $2,831
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 6.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.015 11% +666% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $768 15-19 $0.004 3% +466% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $629 5-9 $0.080 27% +235% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $1,339
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).