Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.105 83% +687% 20.1% moderado $29,287 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.166 51% +204% 10.2% moderado $1,016 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.200 48% +142% 8.9% escalable $106 Donald Trump 200+ $0.265 59% +121% 10.9% escalable $653 CZ (Binance) 40-59 $0.170 37% +116% 6.0% moderado $0 Ted Cruz 200+ $0.170 31% +83% 4.2% moderado $0 Ted Cruz 180-199 $0.125 22% +76% 2.7% moderado $0 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.105 17% +64% 1.9% moderado $130 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.340 51% +51% 6.5% escalable $7,132 Elon Musk 220-239 $0.255 37% +43% 3.7% escalable $122,011 The White House 200+ $0.610 83% +36% 14.0% escalable $0 Elon Musk 220-239 $0.105 14% +32% 0.9% moderado $29,590
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 12,919 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0% Sobre-dispersion: 24.76x 48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 157 · proyeccion 1146.6 ± 156.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.105 83% +687% 20.1% moderado $29,287
lleva 0 · proyeccion 400.3 ± 99.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 16% +10530% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $20 400-419 $0.005 8% +1349% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $10 420-439 $0.005 8% +1294% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $17 380-399 $0.008 8% +894% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $10 340-359 $0.009 7% +681% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $110 360-379 $0.012 8% +536% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $10 320-339 $0.012 6% +418% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $122 300-319 $0.015 5% +241% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $48 280-299 $0.021 4% +106% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $34
lleva 0 · proyeccion 278.0 ± 83.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 3% +1732% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $6,406 380-399 $0.003 4% +1462% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $11,615 340-359 $0.004 7% +1373% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,981 320-339 $0.007 8% +956% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,220 360-379 $0.005 5% +852% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $5,488 300-319 $0.013 9% +561% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,178 280-299 $0.018 10% +443% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $7,219 420-439 $0.004 2% +306% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $8,220 80-99 $0.003 1% +194% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $12,863 60-79 $0.002 0% +176% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $16,876 260-279 $0.035 10% +169% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $3,986 500+ $0.002 0% +153% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $33,913 100-119 $0.008 1% +54% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $10,087 120-139 $0.015 2% +26% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $17,543 240-259 $0.075 9% +21% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $5,181
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.3 ± 65.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.004 15% +3264% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $1,126 140-164 $0.004 14% +3115% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,111 240+ $0.005 15% +2936% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $1,135 190-214 $0.005 14% +2392% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $1,271 215-239 $0.005 11% +2047% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $1,140 115-139 $0.012 12% +897% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $91 90-114 $0.045 9% +90% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $57
lleva 96 · proyeccion 228.9 ± 57.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.004 8% +1671% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $37,321 300-319 $0.004 5% +1389% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $36,033 320-339 $0.003 3% +1109% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $22,213 340-359 $0.002 2% +936% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $24,535 260-279 $0.011 11% +839% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $28,064 80-99 $0.002 1% +396% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $42,345 360-379 $0.002 1% +372% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $34,809 100-119 $0.004 2% +305% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $44,086 240-259 $0.034 13% +288% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $37,628 120-139 $0.023 3% +36% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $71,345 220-239 $0.105 14% +32% 0.9% moderado $29,590
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.0 ± 35.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.002 3% +1934% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $8,824 90-114 $0.009 10% +1102% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $9,678 65-89 $0.065 21% +227% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $17,498
lleva 207 · proyeccion 217.6 ± 16.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.018 8% +380% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $170,705 260-279 $0.002 0% +225% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $206,090 220-239 $0.255 37% +43% 3.7% escalable $122,011
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 6,113 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8% Sobre-dispersion: 11.88x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 251.3 ± 54.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.610 83% +36% 14.0% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 167.6 ± 44.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 16% +2875% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $165 120-139 $0.011 12% +1027% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $188 80-99 $0.005 4% +616% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $265 100-119 $0.011 8% +601% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $198 160-179 $0.037 18% +372% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $84 60-79 $0.004 2% +371% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $298 180-199 $0.130 16% +21% 0.8% moderado $1,105
lleva 108 · proyeccion 200.1 ± 33.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.010 16% +1469% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $423 180-199 $0.045 23% +397% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $1,627 100-119 $0.002 1% +212% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $231
lleva 272 · proyeccion 280.3 ± 10.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 5,442 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5% Sobre-dispersion: 13.68x 37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 211.3 ± 53.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.265 59% +121% 10.9% escalable $653
lleva 0 · proyeccion 150.9 ± 45.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 4% +553% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $96 40-59 $0.011 2% +31% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $30 100-119 $0.090 12% +29% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,225 120-139 $0.145 16% +8% 0.3% moderado $1,881
lleva 95 · proyeccion 161.6 ± 30.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.010 6% +516% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,367 80-99 $0.005 2% +231% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,315 120-139 $0.097 15% +55% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $2,005
lleva 154 · proyeccion 160.2 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.340 51% +51% 6.5% escalable $7,132
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 3,573 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.71x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 182.2 ± 35.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.170 31% +83% 4.2% moderado $0 180-199 $0.125 22% +76% 2.7% moderado $0 160-179 $0.175 21% +21% 1.1% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 121.5 ± 28.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.016 6% +248% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $133 180-199 $0.005 2% +227% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $110 140-159 $0.105 17% +64% 1.9% moderado $130
lleva 53 · proyeccion 118.3 ± 20.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.305 32% +5% 0.6% escalable $308
lleva 105 · proyeccion 109.6 ± 5.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.770 93% +21% 17.3% escalable $1,153
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 2,430 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 6.59x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 133.6 ± 29.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.075 23% +206% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $0 160-179 $0.070 13% +86% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $10
lleva 0 · proyeccion 91.4 ± 24.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.029 10% +255% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $86 20-39 $0.011 2% +48% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $70 40-59 $0.067 8% +20% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $85
lleva 48 · proyeccion 95.9 ± 17.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 2% +254% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $354 120-139 $0.032 9% +166% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $333
lleva 101 · proyeccion 106.7 ± 6.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 1,087 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 58.0 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 41% +8142% 10.2% cautela (no operable) $324 40-59 $0.200 48% +142% 8.9% escalable $106
lleva 0 · proyeccion 40.1 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.061 50% +715% 11.6% cautela (no operable) $139 60-79 $0.006 3% +336% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $204
lleva 20 · proyeccion 39.6 ± 7.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.166 51% +204% 10.2% moderado $1,016
lleva 35 · proyeccion 36.8 ± 2.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.066 10% +55% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,382
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 654 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0% Sobre-dispersion: 4.35x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 36.3 ± 12.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.170 37% +116% 6.0% moderado $0 20-39 $0.410 51% +24% 4.2% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.6 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.265 30% +15% 1.3% escalable $100 20-39 $0.560 61% +10% 3.1% escalable $90
lleva 13 · proyeccion 26.2 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.032 4% +27% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $80 <20 $0.160 19% +17% 0.8% moderado $1,824
lleva 23 · proyeccion 24.5 ± 2.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 155 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0% Sobre-dispersion: 16.44x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.7 ± 12.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.045 16% +264% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $9 10-14 $0.044 16% +258% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $9 15-19 $0.050 13% +161% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $9 20-24 $0.044 9% +102% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $9 25-29 $0.035 5% +52% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $9
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 10.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.004 17% +4652% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $127 5-9 $0.005 20% +3828% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $113 20-24 $0.002 6% +3719% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $77 15-19 $0.004 11% +3051% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $160 25-29 $0.004 2% +566% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $72 30-34 $0.004 1% +112% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $78 35-39 $0.002 0% +23% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $59
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.005 24% +4640% 5.8% cautela (no operable) $433 10-14 $0.004 13% +3169% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $415 15-19 $0.004 5% +905% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $387 20-24 $0.004 1% +145% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $571
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.5 ± 2.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.004 9% +1795% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,284
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).