CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	65-89	$0.165	41%	+151%	7.5%	moderado	$97,032
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.175	38%	+119%	6.3%	moderado	$1,050
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.110	22%	+102%	3.1%	moderado	$4,268
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.300	55%	+82%	8.8%	escalable	$1,899
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.170	29%	+73%	3.8%	moderado	$2,293
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.105	18%	+68%	2.0%	moderado	$1,170
Ted Cruz	160-179	$0.300	43%	+43%	4.6%	escalable	$800
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.395	55%	+40%	6.5%	escalable	$3,339
Ted Cruz	180-199	$0.261	36%	+39%	3.5%	escalable	$373
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.305	40%	+30%	3.3%	escalable	$4,155
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.100	13%	+27%	0.8%	moderado	$697
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	40-59	$0.130	15%	+17%	0.6%	moderado	$173

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,361 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 48% del periodo

lleva 346 · proyeccion 994.6 ± 128.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.060	48%	+708%	11.3%	cautela (no operable)	$6,478
960-999	$0.022	12%	+457%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$9,396
920-959	$0.053	11%	+112%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$4,524

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 9 · proyeccion 251.3 ± 78.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
300-319	$0.004	8%	+1825%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$14,875
280-299	$0.009	9%	+957%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$15,469
260-279	$0.018	10%	+432%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$4,660
80-99	$0.003	1%	+396%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$45,592
240-259	$0.039	10%	+159%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$3,932
220-239	$0.085	10%	+14%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$4,388

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 108 · proyeccion 224.4 ± 54.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
280-299	$0.004	7%	+1955%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$51,383
300-319	$0.003	4%	+1647%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$50,697
320-339	$0.002	2%	+1449%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$40,523
260-279	$0.009	10%	+1120%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$52,198
120-139	$0.004	3%	+716%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$108,282
240-259	$0.025	13%	+413%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$40,766
220-239	$0.085	14%	+70%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$25,622
140-159	$0.052	6%	+9%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$82,724

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 56 · proyeccion 62.3 ± 12.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
65-89	$0.165	41%	+151%	7.5%	moderado	$97,032

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,527 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 19 · proyeccion 149.7 ± 38.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.005	18%	+3480%	4.4%	cautela (no operable)	$513
140-159	$0.006	20%	+3313%	5.0%	cautela (no operable)	$582
100-119	$0.005	12%	+2305%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$539
80-99	$0.004	6%	+1452%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$747
60-79	$0.004	2%	+515%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$781
160-179	$0.062	18%	+190%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$936

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 125 · proyeccion 179.1 ± 24.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.009	29%	+3331%	7.1%	cautela (no operable)	$4,233

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,251 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x30 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 42 · proyeccion 166.9 ± 42.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.002	0%	+177%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$3,254
120-139	$0.100	13%	+27%	0.8%	moderado	$697
160-179	$0.175	19%	+7%	0.4%	moderado	$1,511

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 121 · proyeccion 186.4 ± 30.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.007	5%	+585%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,781
160-179	$0.110	22%	+102%	3.1%	moderado	$4,268

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,655 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 39 · proyeccion 138.0 ± 24.4

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 136 · proyeccion 177.1 ± 15.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.065	12%	+89%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$2,038
160-179	$0.300	43%	+43%	4.6%	escalable	$800
180-199	$0.261	36%	+39%	3.5%	escalable	$373
120-139	$0.006	1%	+37%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$872

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,699 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 5 · proyeccion 78.2 ± 15.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.028	8%	+180%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$479
80-99	$0.175	38%	+119%	6.3%	moderado	$1,050
20-39	$0.005	1%	+15%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$271

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 37 · proyeccion 70.0 ± 10.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.105	18%	+68%	2.0%	moderado	$1,170
40-59	$0.130	15%	+17%	0.6%	moderado	$173

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 833 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 10.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.026	4%	+49%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,228
60-79	$0.009	1%	+38%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$2,394
40-59	$0.305	40%	+30%	3.3%	escalable	$4,155

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 19 · proyeccion 34.9 ± 6.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.700	74%	+5%	3.0%	escalable	$10,116

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 459 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 2 · proyeccion 21.8 ± 10.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.009	4%	+344%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$463
20-39	$0.300	55%	+82%	8.8%	escalable	$1,899

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 12 · proyeccion 20.4 ± 6.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.395	55%	+40%	6.5%	escalable	$3,339

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.0 ± 8.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.005	10%	+1913%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$280
20-24	$0.005	4%	+670%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$180
10-14	$0.085	18%	+117%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$372
25-29	$0.005	1%	+106%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$130
5-9	$0.210	24%	+12%	0.8%	escalable	$564

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.8 ± 5.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.007	13%	+1574%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,081
15-19	$0.004	3%	+622%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$897
5-9	$0.170	29%	+73%	3.8%	moderado	$2,293
20-24	$0.002	0%	+60%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$899