Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.105 37% +256% 7.5% moderado $1,417 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.210 52% +145% 9.7% escalable $530 Donald Trump 200+ $0.195 44% +125% 7.5% moderado $415 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.145 28% +95% 4.0% moderado $32 The White House 200+ $0.355 59% +65% 9.0% escalable $0 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.120 17% +44% 1.5% moderado $241 Ali Khamenei 15-19 $0.105 15% +41% 1.2% moderado $20 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.165 23% +38% 1.9% moderado $2,518 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.125 15% +23% 0.8% moderado $1,168 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.235 29% +22% 1.7% escalable $4,945 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.370 45% +21% 3.1% escalable $938 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.355 43% +21% 2.9% escalable $4,645
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,259 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 248 · proyeccion 1048.8 ± 143.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.070 63% +807% 15.2% cautela (no operable) $4,775 960-999 $0.021 10% +382% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,210 920-959 $0.043 8% +96% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,663
lleva 0 · proyeccion 392.9 ± 100.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 14% +9497% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $977 420-439 $0.002 7% +4854% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,253 440-459 $0.002 7% +4417% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,563 380-399 $0.003 8% +3075% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $790 400-419 $0.003 8% +3033% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $790 360-379 $0.005 8% +1305% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $792 340-359 $0.006 7% +1013% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,310 320-339 $0.011 7% +520% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $772 300-319 $0.015 6% +288% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,849 280-299 $0.022 5% +108% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $2,758
lleva 10 · proyeccion 276.3 ± 82.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.004 7% +1763% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $7,174 320-339 $0.004 8% +1642% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $6,222 360-379 $0.003 5% +1605% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $3,242 300-319 $0.009 9% +888% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $10,598 280-299 $0.017 10% +460% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $10,586 80-99 $0.002 1% +404% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $24,184 440-459 $0.003 1% +332% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $14,032 60-79 $0.002 0% +184% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $19,613 260-279 $0.035 10% +178% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $5,024 240-259 $0.065 9% +41% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $4,157
lleva 0 · proyeccion 156.2 ± 63.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 16% +10321% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $591 165-189 $0.002 15% +9802% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $591 190-214 $0.002 12% +7966% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $68 240+ $0.002 9% +6168% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $926 215-239 $0.002 8% +5531% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $839 115-139 $0.009 14% +1466% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $776 90-114 $0.037 11% +191% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $180
lleva 96 · proyeccion 210.9 ± 54.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.003 8% +2640% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $52,968 240-259 $0.007 11% +1419% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $49,460 100-119 $0.004 3% +477% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $112,406 220-239 $0.029 14% +384% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $36,972 200-219 $0.095 15% +54% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $36,244
lleva 21 · proyeccion 51.2 ± 27.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.004 7% +1987% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $32,537 65-89 $0.041 23% +473% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $51,350
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,413 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.7x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 210.3 ± 49.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.355 59% +65% 9.0% escalable $0 120-139 $0.041 4% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $22
lleva 19 · proyeccion 153.6 ± 39.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.011 20% +1621% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $1,078 160-179 $0.050 18% +268% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,285
lleva 116 · proyeccion 181.7 ± 27.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 15% +2587% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $2,448 120-139 $0.003 5% +1964% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,369 160-179 $0.040 26% +542% 5.7% cautela (no operable) $3,445
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,132 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 191.3 ± 52.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.195 44% +125% 7.5% moderado $415 60-79 $0.006 1% +77% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $80 180-199 $0.140 15% +8% 0.3% moderado $176
lleva 2 · proyeccion 134.5 ± 43.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.002 1% +610% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,024 40-59 $0.004 3% +606% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,306 60-79 $0.024 6% +154% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $478 80-99 $0.059 11% +82% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,223 100-119 $0.125 15% +23% 0.8% moderado $1,168 120-139 $0.150 18% +20% 0.9% moderado $523
lleva 96 · proyeccion 148.2 ± 27.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 3% +2026% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $2,986 100-119 $0.022 11% +400% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $2,329 120-139 $0.165 23% +38% 1.9% moderado $2,518
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,524 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 162.3 ± 30.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 11 · proyeccion 117.2 ± 24.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.145 28% +95% 4.0% moderado $32 40-59 $0.005 1% +60% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $418 80-99 $0.120 17% +44% 1.5% moderado $241
lleva 79 · proyeccion 129.9 ± 16.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.060 23% +288% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $635 120-139 $0.370 45% +21% 3.1% escalable $938
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,669 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.9 ± 18.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.060 33% +449% 7.2% cautela (no operable) $0 100-119 $0.075 38% +400% 8.1% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.050 10% +109% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 5 · proyeccion 81.3 ± 15.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.050 7% +47% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $20 100-119 $0.095 11% +17% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $146
lleva 37 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 10.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.225 25% +12% 0.8% escalable $1,137 60-79 $0.605 64% +6% 2.2% escalable $1,296
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 56.6 ± 12.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 4% +2372% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $619 60-79 $0.105 37% +256% 7.5% moderado $1,417
lleva 0 · proyeccion 38.2 ± 10.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.355 43% +21% 2.9% escalable $4,645
lleva 19 · proyeccion 35.6 ± 7.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +160% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,660 40-59 $0.235 29% +22% 1.7% escalable $4,945
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 13.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.016 31% +1852% 7.5% cautela (no operable) $147 60-79 $0.005 3% +438% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $93 20-39 $0.210 52% +145% 9.7% escalable $530
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.3 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 6% +806% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $609 20-39 $0.090 54% +503% 12.4% cautela (no operable) $1,405
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.4 ± 7.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.017 15% +804% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $1,012
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.105 15% +41% 1.2% moderado $20 20-24 $0.085 10% +22% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $30 10-14 $0.145 17% +19% 0.8% moderado $84
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 25-29 $0.006 2% +253% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $226 10-14 $0.083 18% +122% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $252 20-24 $0.040 6% +52% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $253 30-34 $0.005 1% +31% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $253
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.067 15% +122% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $559 15-19 $0.029 4% +50% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $381 5-9 $0.235 28% +20% 1.5% escalable $1,025
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).