CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-08 13:01 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.16575%+353%17.4%moderado$3,516
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.13039%+201%7.5%moderado$0
Donald Trump200+$0.22553%+135%9.8%escalable$778
Ted Cruz140-159$0.19546%+135%8.2%moderado$2,049
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.23550%+114%8.7%escalable$771
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.14025%+80%3.2%moderado$4,026
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.33055%+67%8.2%escalable$8
Donald Trump160-179$0.15023%+56%2.5%moderado$2,208
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.16025%+56%2.7%moderado$2,707
Ted Cruz100-119$0.22531%+39%2.9%escalable$215
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.11015%+37%1.1%moderado$276
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.13017%+31%1.2%moderado$0
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 170 · proyeccion 1102.5 ± 154.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.16575%+353%17.4%moderado$3,516
lleva 0 · proyeccion 395.5 ± 100.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00215%+9930%3.7%cautela (no operable)$11,251
400-419$0.0028%+5131%1.9%cautela (no operable)$240
420-439$0.0027%+4889%1.8%cautela (no operable)$190
380-399$0.0038%+3064%1.9%cautela (no operable)$200
360-379$0.0058%+1293%1.8%cautela (no operable)$462
340-359$0.0077%+852%1.6%cautela (no operable)$187
320-339$0.0136%+411%1.3%cautela (no operable)$175
300-319$0.0176%+234%1.0%cautela (no operable)$451
280-299$0.0255%+79%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,513
lleva 18 · proyeccion 260.6 ± 78.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0024%+1852%0.9%cautela (no operable)$22,561
340-359$0.0035%+1687%1.3%cautela (no operable)$21,118
380-399$0.0023%+1677%0.6%cautela (no operable)$31,013
320-339$0.0047%+1434%1.6%cautela (no operable)$15,227
300-319$0.0098%+881%1.9%cautela (no operable)$13,618
280-299$0.0179%+456%2.0%cautela (no operable)$13,580
60-79$0.0021%+260%0.1%cautela (no operable)$23,835
80-99$0.0031%+222%0.2%cautela (no operable)$37,701
260-279$0.03710%+168%1.6%cautela (no operable)$5,180
100-119$0.0092%+80%0.2%cautela (no operable)$40,523
240-259$0.07510%+33%0.7%cautela (no operable)$4,793
lleva 102 · proyeccion 218.0 ± 54.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0022%+1124%0.4%cautela (no operable)$40,647
280-299$0.0066%+857%1.4%cautela (no operable)$48,685
300-319$0.0044%+803%0.8%cautela (no operable)$55,622
260-279$0.0159%+546%2.0%cautela (no operable)$56,239
240-259$0.03812%+225%2.2%cautela (no operable)$45,957
120-139$0.0134%+192%0.7%cautela (no operable)$82,446
220-239$0.08514%+68%1.6%cautela (no operable)$45,569
lleva 0 · proyeccion 77.8 ± 44.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0026%+2771%1.4%cautela (no operable)$5,054
115-139$0.00712%+1529%2.9%cautela (no operable)$6,526
90-114$0.03719%+417%4.0%cautela (no operable)$7,224
65-89$0.18022%+23%1.2%moderado$5,759
lleva 36 · proyeccion 40.5 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
65-89$0.0041%+227%0.2%cautela (no operable)$88,473
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 196.8 ± 48.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0051%+165%0.2%cautela (no operable)$97
120-139$0.0406%+60%0.6%cautela (no operable)$61
160-179$0.09014%+55%1.4%cautela (no operable)$160
lleva 21 · proyeccion 149.7 ± 39.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00418%+4956%4.3%cautela (no operable)$361
100-119$0.00412%+3343%2.9%cautela (no operable)$426
140-159$0.02720%+646%4.5%cautela (no operable)$581
lleva 106 · proyeccion 159.1 ± 25.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00216%+7930%4.0%cautela (no operable)$1,029
100-119$0.0025%+3170%1.2%cautela (no operable)$463
140-159$0.04529%+541%6.4%cautela (no operable)$2,710
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 203.5 ± 54.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.22553%+135%9.8%escalable$778
180-199$0.11514%+23%0.8%moderado$261
160-179$0.11012%+10%0.3%moderado$279
lleva 24 · proyeccion 147.5 ± 42.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0031%+434%0.3%cautela (no operable)$453
100-119$0.05913%+112%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,050
80-99$0.0357%+109%1.0%cautela (no operable)$578
20-39$0.0040%+16%0.0%cautela (no operable)$3,128
140-159$0.17019%+10%0.5%moderado$785
lleva 118 · proyeccion 182.6 ± 30.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0186%+241%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,870
140-159$0.06015%+143%2.3%cautela (no operable)$2,506
160-179$0.15023%+56%2.5%moderado$2,208
180-199$0.23525%+6%0.5%escalable$2,883
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.8 ± 29.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.0255%+100%0.6%cautela (no operable)$40
lleva 21 · proyeccion 117.9 ± 23.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.05516%+200%2.9%cautela (no operable)$376
60-79$0.0184%+138%0.6%cautela (no operable)$97
100-119$0.22531%+39%2.9%escalable$215
lleva 115 · proyeccion 155.8 ± 15.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.01113%+1094%3.0%cautela (no operable)$802
140-159$0.19546%+135%8.2%moderado$2,049
100-119$0.0051%+56%0.1%cautela (no operable)$517
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 114.8 ± 18.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.04031%+669%7.0%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.13039%+201%7.5%moderado$0
140-159$0.0389%+125%1.2%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 11 · proyeccion 84.6 ± 15.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.11015%+37%1.1%moderado$276
lleva 41 · proyeccion 74.0 ± 10.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.23529%+22%1.7%escalable$1,764
40-59$0.0707%+5%0.1%cautela (no operable)$445
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 55.7 ± 12.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.06535%+440%7.7%cautela (no operable)$713
40-59$0.43051%+20%3.7%escalable$1,275
lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.1 ± 10.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0254%+54%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,125
40-59$0.31039%+27%3.0%escalable$2,857
lleva 18 · proyeccion 33.7 ± 6.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 31.5 ± 13.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.04125%+526%5.5%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.33055%+67%8.2%escalable$8
lleva 0 · proyeccion 20.5 ± 10.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.23550%+114%8.7%escalable$771
lleva 6 · proyeccion 14.8 ± 6.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.16025%+56%2.7%moderado$2,707
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.9 ± 11.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.06014%+139%2.2%cautela (no operable)$0
10-14$0.13017%+31%1.2%moderado$0
25-29$0.0496%+17%0.2%cautela (no operable)$70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.9 ± 8.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0134%+248%0.8%cautela (no operable)$82
10-14$0.06018%+195%3.1%cautela (no operable)$199
15-19$0.03610%+186%1.7%cautela (no operable)$83
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2.4 ± 5.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0259%+256%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,119
15-19$0.0062%+149%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,321
5-9$0.14025%+80%3.2%moderado$4,026