CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.185	78%	+321%	18.2%	moderado	$3,430
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.290	48%	+65%	6.7%	escalable	$2,062
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.355	55%	+54%	7.5%	escalable	$304
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.160	23%	+46%	2.2%	moderado	$1,940
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.335	44%	+31%	3.9%	escalable	$1,614
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.110	13%	+20%	0.6%	moderado	$155
Donald Trump	140-159	$0.160	19%	+17%	0.8%	moderado	$1,835
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.300	35%	+17%	1.8%	escalable	$2,648
Elon Musk	220-239	$0.115	13%	+11%	0.3%	moderado	$27,519
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.335	37%	+10%	1.3%	escalable	$2,518
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	60-79	$0.565	62%	+10%	3.2%	escalable	$1,239
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.405	44%	+7%	1.3%	escalable	$324

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,167 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x39 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 23% del periodo

lleva 152 · proyeccion 1120.1 ± 157.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.185	78%	+321%	18.2%	moderado	$3,430

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 277.7 ± 84.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
380-399	$0.002	4%	+2524%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$4,250
360-379	$0.003	5%	+1993%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,603
340-359	$0.006	7%	+912%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$5,344
320-339	$0.009	8%	+820%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$4,331
300-319	$0.013	9%	+551%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$3,655
280-299	$0.024	9%	+289%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$6,843
80-99	$0.004	1%	+98%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$20,468
260-279	$0.055	9%	+71%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,069
100-119	$0.011	1%	+19%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$21,970

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 84 · proyeccion 235.1 ± 62.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
320-339	$0.003	4%	+1531%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$29,821
340-359	$0.002	2%	+1492%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$31,261
300-319	$0.005	6%	+1042%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$38,642
280-299	$0.009	9%	+820%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$31,679
360-379	$0.002	1%	+742%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$27,349
260-279	$0.019	11%	+462%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$31,743
240-259	$0.037	12%	+232%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$26,780
120-139	$0.015	3%	+112%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$58,205
220-239	$0.115	13%	+11%	0.3%	moderado	$27,519

Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.9 ± 53.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
165-189	$0.002	9%	+5994%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$795
140-164	$0.003	14%	+5567%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$825
115-139	$0.011	18%	+1592%	4.2%	cautela (no operable)	$3,405
90-114	$0.055	18%	+228%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,006

Elon Musk # tweets August 6 - August 8, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 57.6 ± 31.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
90-114	$0.007	12%	+1514%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$34,514
115-139	$0.003	3%	+1174%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$37,897
65-89	$0.095	26%	+169%	4.4%	cautela (no operable)	$20,582

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,306 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.6%Sobre-dispersion: 12.36x23 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 143.4 ± 41.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.004	18%	+5002%	4.4%	cautela (no operable)	$315
100-119	$0.004	14%	+3809%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$380
60-79	$0.003	4%	+1271%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$355
140-159	$0.035	19%	+433%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$305
20-39	$0.003	1%	+103%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$471
80-99	$0.077	8%	+8%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$359

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 86 · proyeccion 152.8 ± 28.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.005	20%	+3872%	4.9%	cautela (no operable)	$375
140-159	$0.013	27%	+1904%	6.5%	cautela (no operable)	$884
100-119	$0.006	9%	+1308%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$455
80-99	$0.003	3%	+958%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$384

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,036 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 137.2 ± 44.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.013	6%	+323%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$291
80-99	$0.049	10%	+109%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$540
100-119	$0.085	15%	+73%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,030
40-59	$0.015	3%	+70%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$307
160-179	$0.130	14%	+6%	0.2%	moderado	$1,104

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 94 · proyeccion 172.3 ± 33.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.010	4%	+330%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$2,826
120-139	$0.048	11%	+122%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,504
160-179	$0.160	23%	+46%	2.2%	moderado	$1,940
140-159	$0.160	19%	+17%	0.8%	moderado	$1,835

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,452 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 110.6 ± 24.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.030	8%	+177%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$85

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 95 · proyeccion 148.5 ± 17.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.025	25%	+920%	5.9%	cautela (no operable)	$508
140-159	$0.335	44%	+31%	3.9%	escalable	$1,614

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,634 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.0%Sobre-dispersion: 3.09x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 2 · proyeccion 82.5 ± 15.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.110	13%	+20%	0.6%	moderado	$155
80-99	$0.405	44%	+7%	1.3%	escalable	$324

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 32 · proyeccion 72.0 ± 11.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.565	62%	+10%	3.2%	escalable	$1,239

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 795 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 39.9 ± 10.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.290	48%	+65%	6.7%	escalable	$2,062

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 15 · proyeccion 36.5 ± 7.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.300	35%	+17%	1.8%	escalable	$2,648

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.6 ± 11.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.030	6%	+111%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$10
20-39	$0.355	55%	+54%	7.5%	escalable	$304

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 17.0 ± 7.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.335	37%	+10%	1.3%	escalable	$2,518

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.3 ± 9.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.045	18%	+301%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$167
15-19	$0.036	12%	+240%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$51
20-24	$0.036	7%	+84%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$50
35-39	$0.002	0%	+42%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$50
5-9	$0.190	20%	+6%	0.4%	moderado	$217

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.8 ± 7.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.032	15%	+353%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$2,068
15-19	$0.015	5%	+245%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,252
20-24	$0.009	1%	+27%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,126