Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.115 28% +148% 4.8% moderado $2,532 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.210 47% +126% 8.4% escalable $1,075 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.275 52% +90% 8.5% escalable $1,416 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.200 37% +86% 5.4% escalable $1,588 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.305 51% +69% 7.5% escalable $2,252 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.330 48% +45% 5.6% escalable $3,373 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.345 47% +37% 4.9% escalable $4,155 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.250 33% +32% 2.7% escalable $626 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.160 20% +24% 1.2% moderado $1,663 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.225 25% +11% 0.8% escalable $634 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.275 29% +5% 0.5% escalable $3,120 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.305 32% +5% 0.6% escalable $7,567
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,381 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 366 · proyeccion 991.9 ± 126.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 48% +694% 11.1% cautela (no operable) $6,628 960-999 $0.025 12% +390% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $9,620 920-959 $0.052 12% +122% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $4,695
lleva 29 · proyeccion 248.9 ± 75.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.003 8% +2966% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $42,631 340-359 $0.002 4% +2792% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $38,794 320-339 $0.003 6% +2290% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $52,000 280-299 $0.006 9% +1428% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $30,085 260-279 $0.013 10% +656% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $11,667 80-99 $0.004 1% +222% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $59,594 240-259 $0.034 11% +216% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $8,021 220-239 $0.075 10% +37% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $7,311
lleva 128 · proyeccion 222.0 ± 49.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 6% +4135% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $78,943 300-319 $0.002 3% +2144% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $74,128 260-279 $0.005 10% +1935% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $71,972 240-259 $0.013 14% +1007% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $78,974 220-239 $0.064 16% +150% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $55,666 140-159 $0.023 6% +139% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $146,767
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,543 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 35 · proyeccion 153.6 ± 36.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 17% +3066% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $563 140-159 $0.010 21% +2035% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $671 80-99 $0.003 5% +1843% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $750 100-119 $0.005 11% +1833% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $601 160-179 $0.029 20% +587% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $976 60-79 $0.003 2% +564% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $784
lleva 141 · proyeccion 183.0 ± 21.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.017 30% +1638% 7.1% cautela (no operable) $5,512
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 172.3 ± 39.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.065 11% +73% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $704 100-119 $0.040 6% +47% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $750 160-179 $0.160 20% +24% 1.2% moderado $1,663
lleva 141 · proyeccion 191.8 ± 26.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 9% +1519% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $3,429 160-179 $0.065 21% +222% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $4,949 180-199 $0.275 29% +5% 0.5% escalable $3,120
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,659 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 43 · proyeccion 132.8 ± 23.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.250 33% +32% 2.7% escalable $626
lleva 140 · proyeccion 172.0 ± 13.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.050 17% +249% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $2,066 160-179 $0.275 52% +90% 8.5% escalable $1,416
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,711 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 15 · proyeccion 84.7 ± 15.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.015 15% +910% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $562 120-139 $0.004 1% +148% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $322 80-99 $0.210 47% +126% 8.4% escalable $1,075
lleva 47 · proyeccion 76.6 ± 9.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 1% +210% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $276 40-59 $0.017 4% +141% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,224 80-99 $0.200 37% +86% 5.4% escalable $1,588
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 839 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 10 · proyeccion 39.2 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.345 47% +37% 4.9% escalable $4,155
lleva 26 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.305 32% +5% 0.6% escalable $7,567
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 460 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.013 3% +109% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.305 51% +69% 7.5% escalable $2,252
lleva 12 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.330 48% +45% 5.6% escalable $3,373
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 8% +1313% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 2% +318% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $180 10-14 $0.070 17% +146% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $400 5-9 $0.225 25% +11% 0.8% escalable $634
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.004 6% +1525% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,162 5-9 $0.115 28% +148% 4.8% moderado $2,532 15-19 $0.002 0% +142% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $982
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.