CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.128	41%	+224%	8.2%	moderado	$385
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.235	57%	+141%	10.8%	escalable	$968
The White House	180-199	$0.145	32%	+117%	5.0%	moderado	$7,834
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.270	58%	+113%	10.4%	escalable	$2,173
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.120	23%	+89%	3.0%	moderado	$2,860
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.115	22%	+87%	2.8%	moderado	$6,528
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.215	37%	+70%	4.8%	escalable	$2,149
Donald Trump	200+	$0.175	29%	+66%	3.5%	moderado	$575
The White House	160-179	$0.100	14%	+45%	1.2%	moderado	$108
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.290	40%	+39%	3.9%	escalable	$5,036
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.145	19%	+32%	1.4%	moderado	$734
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.135	17%	+29%	1.1%	moderado	$104

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,272 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 39% del periodo

lleva 261 · proyeccion 1029.9 ± 140.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.045	59%	+1202%	14.2%	cautela (no operable)	$5,131
960-999	$0.011	11%	+912%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$6,280
920-959	$0.019	9%	+373%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$3,035
880-919	$0.045	7%	+64%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$3,010

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 361.3 ± 96.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
500+	$0.002	8%	+4929%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$17,054
400-419	$0.002	7%	+4768%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,494
420-439	$0.002	6%	+4194%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,673
380-399	$0.003	8%	+3071%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$810
360-379	$0.004	8%	+2256%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,558
340-359	$0.005	8%	+1394%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,310
320-339	$0.007	8%	+945%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$4,159
300-319	$0.012	7%	+497%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$2,627
280-299	$0.022	6%	+185%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$4,717

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 23 · proyeccion 257.9 ± 77.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
360-379	$0.002	4%	+2345%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$9,542
340-359	$0.003	5%	+1952%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$10,223
320-339	$0.004	7%	+1819%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$9,257
300-319	$0.006	8%	+1166%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$15,492
280-299	$0.011	9%	+721%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$15,306
260-279	$0.021	10%	+372%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$6,763
80-99	$0.003	1%	+294%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$42,309
240-259	$0.055	10%	+85%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$4,812
220-239	$0.085	10%	+13%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$3,074

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 124.8 ± 56.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.002	16%	+10306%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$3,930
165-189	$0.002	12%	+7571%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$4,261
115-139	$0.006	17%	+2812%	4.2%	cautela (no operable)	$3,875
90-114	$0.030	16%	+429%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$6,324

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 109 · proyeccion 192.5 ± 46.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
240-259	$0.003	8%	+3144%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$90,214
260-279	$0.002	4%	+2820%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$97,670
220-239	$0.011	12%	+1090%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$77,110
200-219	$0.049	16%	+230%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$85,060
120-139	$0.051	7%	+35%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$177,401

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,440 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.53x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 195.1 ± 47.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.006	3%	+460%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$22
120-139	$0.021	7%	+210%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$22
80-99	$0.005	1%	+164%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$122
140-159	$0.050	11%	+112%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$0
160-179	$0.100	14%	+45%	1.2%	moderado	$108

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 48 · proyeccion 166.9 ± 37.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.006	19%	+2842%	4.7%	cautela (no operable)	$2,057
160-179	$0.011	21%	+1831%	5.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,867

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 145 · proyeccion 195.0 ± 24.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.011	19%	+1626%	4.5%	cautela (no operable)	$3,815
140-159	$0.005	6%	+978%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,800
180-199	$0.145	32%	+117%	5.0%	moderado	$7,834

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,152 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 171.9 ± 49.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.002	1%	+440%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$449
60-79	$0.006	2%	+205%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$100
80-99	$0.022	4%	+84%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$232
200+	$0.175	29%	+66%	3.5%	moderado	$575
160-179	$0.140	16%	+14%	0.6%	moderado	$326

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 24 · proyeccion 137.1 ± 40.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.005	5%	+894%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$758
40-59	$0.004	2%	+459%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,443
80-99	$0.019	10%	+408%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,439
100-119	$0.066	16%	+138%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,324
120-139	$0.145	19%	+32%	1.4%	moderado	$734

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 118 · proyeccion 150.7 ± 21.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.120	23%	+89%	3.0%	moderado	$2,860

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,551 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 150.4 ± 28.8

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 36 · proyeccion 129.5 ± 22.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.003	1%	+324%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$713
80-99	$0.050	8%	+58%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$269
120-139	$0.305	34%	+12%	1.3%	escalable	$89

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 104 · proyeccion 142.2 ± 14.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.031	6%	+83%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$907
120-139	$0.215	37%	+70%	4.8%	escalable	$2,149

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,673 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 107.2 ± 18.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.025	21%	+746%	4.8%	cautela (no operable)	$204
140-159	$0.005	4%	+614%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$234
100-119	$0.128	41%	+224%	8.2%	moderado	$385

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 11 · proyeccion 77.7 ± 14.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.046	6%	+36%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$146
40-59	$0.080	10%	+22%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$32

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 43 · proyeccion 69.0 ± 9.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.595	74%	+24%	8.7%	escalable	$1,635
80-99	$0.100	12%	+21%	0.6%	moderado	$1,509

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 818 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.7 ± 12.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.095	25%	+165%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,806
80-99	$0.005	1%	+117%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$686
40-59	$0.470	58%	+23%	5.0%	escalable	$2,129

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 9.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.290	40%	+39%	3.9%	escalable	$5,036

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 23 · proyeccion 34.8 ± 5.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.115	22%	+87%	2.8%	moderado	$6,528

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 452 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.2 ± 12.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.011	22%	+1914%	5.3%	cautela (no operable)	$256
20-39	$0.235	57%	+141%	10.8%	escalable	$968
60-79	$0.005	1%	+96%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$215

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 22.6 ± 10.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.270	58%	+113%	10.4%	escalable	$2,173
40-59	$0.025	5%	+88%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$896

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 12.1 ± 6.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.011	13%	+1121%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,020

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.3 ± 11.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.048	15%	+211%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$40
20-24	$0.061	10%	+68%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$30
10-14	$0.135	17%	+29%	1.1%	moderado	$104
25-29	$0.056	6%	+7%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$30

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.0 ± 9.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.005	6%	+1088%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$278
10-14	$0.034	18%	+442%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$316
15-19	$0.036	12%	+235%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$269
30-34	$0.005	1%	+24%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$278

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.1 ± 6.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.040	15%	+264%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$575
15-19	$0.017	4%	+137%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$381
5-9	$0.225	28%	+26%	1.9%	escalable	$1,057
20-24	$0.005	1%	+20%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$589