CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-07 21:34 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.18578%+320%18.1%moderado$3,440
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.34054%+60%7.7%escalable$340
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.28041%+45%4.4%escalable$2,309
Donald Trump140-159$0.14520%+37%1.6%moderado$1,876
Elon Musk<40$0.19025%+33%1.9%moderado$51,895
The White House160-179$0.21028%+31%2.0%escalable$2,298
Ted Cruz140-159$0.36045%+25%3.5%escalable$1,702
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.30535%+16%1.8%escalable$2,538
Donald Trump100-119$0.14015%+9%0.4%moderado$1,030
Donald Trump180-199$0.19020%+7%0.4%moderado$2,437
Donald Trump160-179$0.12513%+7%0.2%moderado$1,122
Elon Musk220-239$0.12513%+6%0.2%moderado$34,652
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x39 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 161 · proyeccion 1118.7 ± 156.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.18578%+320%18.1%moderado$3,440
lleva 9 · proyeccion 276.3 ± 82.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0035%+1946%1.2%cautela (no operable)$12,955
380-399$0.0024%+1795%0.9%cautela (no operable)$17,539
340-359$0.0047%+1761%1.6%cautela (no operable)$19,365
320-339$0.0078%+944%1.8%cautela (no operable)$5,783
80-99$0.0021%+409%0.1%cautela (no operable)$32,369
300-319$0.0189%+393%1.8%cautela (no operable)$5,750
280-299$0.0339%+192%1.6%cautela (no operable)$8,720
260-279$0.06510%+47%0.8%cautela (no operable)$3,615
100-119$0.0101%+28%0.1%cautela (no operable)$30,805
240-259$0.0859%+7%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,994
lleva 93 · proyeccion 233.7 ± 60.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0034%+1398%0.9%cautela (no operable)$30,354
340-359$0.0022%+1296%0.5%cautela (no operable)$31,794
300-319$0.0046%+1234%1.4%cautela (no operable)$45,910
280-299$0.0119%+649%1.9%cautela (no operable)$34,251
260-279$0.02211%+393%2.3%cautela (no operable)$38,483
120-139$0.0113%+171%0.5%cautela (no operable)$64,303
240-259$0.05713%+126%1.9%cautela (no operable)$31,781
220-239$0.12513%+6%0.2%moderado$34,652
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.5 ± 51.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00312%+4776%3.0%cautela (no operable)$1,305
165-189$0.0027%+4456%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,274
115-139$0.01117%+1397%4.1%cautela (no operable)$4,027
90-114$0.05019%+285%3.8%cautela (no operable)$2,541
lleva 27 · proyeccion 56.2 ± 27.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.00610%+1483%2.2%cautela (no operable)$44,167
115-139$0.0022%+920%0.3%cautela (no operable)$38,087
65-89$0.08527%+216%5.0%cautela (no operable)$30,886
<40$0.19025%+33%1.9%moderado$51,895
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 16 · proyeccion 150.1 ± 40.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00317%+5682%4.3%cautela (no operable)$317
140-159$0.00420%+4286%4.8%cautela (no operable)$320
100-119$0.00412%+3310%2.9%cautela (no operable)$397
60-79$0.0023%+1255%0.6%cautela (no operable)$377
80-99$0.0166%+302%1.2%cautela (no operable)$359
lleva 101 · proyeccion 159.5 ± 26.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00728%+3838%6.8%cautela (no operable)$884
120-139$0.00516%+3096%3.9%cautela (no operable)$375
100-119$0.0025%+2580%1.3%cautela (no operable)$455
160-179$0.21028%+31%2.0%escalable$2,298
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 135.0 ± 43.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0063%+324%0.5%cautela (no operable)$307
80-99$0.04511%+134%1.6%cautela (no operable)$540
60-79$0.0266%+126%0.9%cautela (no operable)$311
100-119$0.14015%+9%0.4%moderado$1,030
160-179$0.12513%+7%0.2%moderado$1,122
lleva 97 · proyeccion 170.1 ± 32.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0074%+497%0.9%cautela (no operable)$2,826
120-139$0.04811%+139%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,504
140-159$0.14520%+37%1.6%moderado$1,876
180-199$0.19020%+7%0.4%moderado$2,437
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 107.6 ± 24.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.03010%+222%1.8%cautela (no operable)$87
lleva 98 · proyeccion 145.5 ± 16.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.05130%+485%6.6%cautela (no operable)$530
140-159$0.36045%+25%3.5%escalable$1,702
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.0%Sobre-dispersion: 3.09x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 83.2 ± 15.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.08514%+62%1.4%cautela (no operable)$172
lleva 35 · proyeccion 72.7 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.08511%+29%0.7%cautela (no operable)$240
80-99$0.24526%+5%0.4%escalable$1,699
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 37.5 ± 10.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.28041%+45%4.4%escalable$2,309
lleva 15 · proyeccion 34.1 ± 7.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.3 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0216%+174%1.0%cautela (no operable)$58
20-39$0.34054%+60%7.7%escalable$340
lleva 6 · proyeccion 16.7 ± 7.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.30535%+16%1.8%escalable$2,538
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.7 ± 9.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0136%+359%1.1%cautela (no operable)$52
10-14$0.06518%+177%3.1%cautela (no operable)$168
15-19$0.04312%+172%1.9%cautela (no operable)$53
30-34$0.0051%+9%0.0%cautela (no operable)$52
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.3 ± 6.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0064%+454%0.7%cautela (no operable)$1,252
10-14$0.03213%+296%2.5%cautela (no operable)$2,068