CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.105	68%	+550%	16.1%	moderado	$4,582
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.250	58%	+132%	11.0%	escalable	$1,246
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.120	25%	+111%	3.8%	moderado	$74
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.155	30%	+90%	4.2%	moderado	$395
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.335	57%	+70%	8.8%	escalable	$3,035
Elon Musk	65-89	$0.145	23%	+58%	2.5%	moderado	$5,325
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.205	32%	+57%	3.6%	escalable	$3,985
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.275	39%	+42%	3.9%	escalable	$456
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.175	24%	+40%	2.1%	moderado	$749
The White House	160-179	$0.398	51%	+28%	4.6%	escalable	$11,933
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.365	45%	+22%	3.2%	escalable	$849
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.405	45%	+12%	2.0%	escalable	$247

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,242 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.57x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 32% del periodo

lleva 227 · proyeccion 1069.0 ± 146.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.105	68%	+550%	16.1%	moderado	$4,582
960-999	$0.037	9%	+140%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$3,788
920-959	$0.066	7%	+12%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,297

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 306.6 ± 88.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
400-419	$0.002	5%	+2962%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,958
380-399	$0.003	6%	+2226%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$3,051
420-439	$0.002	3%	+2199%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$13,072
440-459	$0.002	2%	+1540%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$10,715
360-379	$0.004	7%	+1455%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$2,203
340-359	$0.005	8%	+1355%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$4,204
320-339	$0.009	9%	+923%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,142
500+	$0.002	1%	+880%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$22,924
300-319	$0.018	9%	+386%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$4,921
280-299	$0.025	9%	+260%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$6,828
80-99	$0.003	0%	+80%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$16,593
260-279	$0.050	8%	+65%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,052

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 195.9 ± 70.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
240+	$0.003	27%	+10653%	6.7%	cautela (no operable)	$112
190-214	$0.004	14%	+3891%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$18
165-189	$0.004	14%	+3767%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$541
215-239	$0.004	13%	+3540%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$18
140-164	$0.004	12%	+3212%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$541
115-139	$0.011	9%	+736%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$540
90-114	$0.045	6%	+30%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$49

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 75 · proyeccion 229.6 ± 62.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
320-339	$0.002	4%	+2308%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$45,320
300-319	$0.003	6%	+1790%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$40,830
280-299	$0.006	8%	+1139%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$34,217
260-279	$0.013	10%	+666%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$22,733
100-119	$0.005	2%	+276%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$70,601
240-259	$0.045	12%	+167%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$18,626
220-239	$0.095	13%	+33%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$18,764

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 50% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 69.9 ± 42.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
115-139	$0.004	10%	+2637%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$3,418
140-164	$0.002	4%	+2378%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$3,340
90-114	$0.013	18%	+1201%	4.1%	cautela (no operable)	$5,523
65-89	$0.145	23%	+58%	2.5%	moderado	$5,325

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 159 · proyeccion 187.0 ± 26.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.004	11%	+2433%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$307,512
240-259	$0.002	2%	+1340%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$145,376
220-239	$0.006	9%	+1247%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$121,399
200-219	$0.065	21%	+220%	3.8%	cautela (no operable)	$142,298

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,374 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.87x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 158.0 ± 43.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.004	15%	+3592%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$605
100-119	$0.004	10%	+2093%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$605
80-99	$0.005	5%	+969%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$634
60-79	$0.005	2%	+370%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$654
140-159	$0.050	18%	+258%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$865
160-179	$0.160	18%	+10%	0.5%	moderado	$1,097

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 77 · proyeccion 166.5 ± 32.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.007	21%	+2717%	5.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,717
160-179	$0.095	24%	+153%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,827
120-139	$0.051	13%	+151%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,135

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 162 · proyeccion 175.9 ± 12.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.019	3%	+74%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$13,297
160-179	$0.398	51%	+28%	4.6%	escalable	$11,933

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,102 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 158.7 ± 47.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.003	1%	+410%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$339
20-39	$0.002	0%	+205%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$687
80-99	$0.045	6%	+31%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$973
60-79	$0.028	3%	+9%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$331
200+	$0.185	20%	+7%	0.4%	moderado	$1,157

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 66 · proyeccion 144.6 ± 33.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.004	2%	+499%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,462
80-99	$0.011	6%	+480%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,628
100-119	$0.060	14%	+128%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,851

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 160 · proyeccion 179.7 ± 16.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.355	38%	+7%	1.0%	escalable	$4,356

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,505 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 121.2 ± 25.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.021	5%	+115%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$511
80-99	$0.135	15%	+9%	0.4%	moderado	$200

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 59 · proyeccion 125.0 ± 19.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.155	30%	+90%	4.2%	moderado	$395
80-99	$0.045	8%	+83%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$439
120-139	$0.275	39%	+42%	3.9%	escalable	$456

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 153 · proyeccion 162.9 ± 7.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.205	32%	+57%	3.6%	escalable	$3,985

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,662 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.4 ± 16.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.120	25%	+111%	3.8%	moderado	$74
120-139	$0.025	4%	+58%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$90
80-99	$0.405	45%	+12%	2.0%	escalable	$247

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 30 · proyeccion 79.4 ± 12.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.365	45%	+22%	3.2%	escalable	$849
100-119	$0.045	5%	+12%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$570
40-59	$0.049	5%	+8%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,734

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.8 ± 5.2

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 811 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 44.0 ± 11.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.335	57%	+70%	8.8%	escalable	$3,035

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 16 · proyeccion 38.4 ± 8.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.004	1%	+115%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,660
40-59	$0.420	44%	+5%	0.9%	escalable	$4,357

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 31 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 3.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.065	10%	+46%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$5,701

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 26.0 ± 11.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.006	12%	+1822%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$354
20-39	$0.250	58%	+132%	11.0%	escalable	$1,246

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 15.0 ± 9.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.050	31%	+512%	6.7%	cautela (no operable)	$918

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 9.3 ± 4.3

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.4 ± 10.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
30-34	$0.006	2%	+158%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$12
15-19	$0.055	14%	+146%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$0
20-24	$0.035	8%	+132%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$12
10-14	$0.090	18%	+98%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$0

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.029	16%	+436%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$470
15-19	$0.029	7%	+130%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$279
20-24	$0.011	2%	+60%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$275
5-9	$0.175	24%	+40%	2.1%	moderado	$749

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.9 ± 3.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.002	1%	+181%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$3,527
5-9	$0.055	14%	+151%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$5,657