CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-30 22:26 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.12560%+383%13.7%moderado$143
Elon Musk1000+$0.335100%+198%25.0%escalable$2,045
The White House200+$0.18034%+89%4.9%moderado$1,098
Ted Cruz120-139$0.16029%+84%4.0%moderado$180
Volodymyr Zelenskyy120-139$0.11520%+77%2.5%moderado$41
Donald Trump160-179$0.12520%+63%2.2%moderado$1,081
Ted Cruz140-159$0.23238%+62%4.7%escalable$1,901
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.18528%+51%2.9%moderado$105
Elon Musk65-89$0.24035%+46%3.6%escalable$56,745
The White House140-159$0.27938%+36%3.5%escalable$4,614
Donald Trump160-179$0.11015%+36%1.1%moderado$289
Ted Cruz120-139$0.16522%+35%1.7%moderado$44
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2440.9 ± 250.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.335100%+198%25.0%escalable$2,045
lleva 0 · proyeccion 337.8 ± 93.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0026%+4145%1.6%cautela (no operable)$6,837
440-459$0.0024%+2683%1.0%cautela (no operable)$6,074
500+$0.0024%+2641%1.0%cautela (no operable)$9,548
380-399$0.0047%+1997%1.8%cautela (no operable)$6,436
360-379$0.0048%+1695%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,905
420-439$0.0055%+955%1.2%cautela (no operable)$5,964
340-359$0.0118%+709%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,564
320-339$0.0119%+641%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,387
300-319$0.0288%+197%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,333
280-299$0.0427%+78%0.9%cautela (no operable)$4,309
lleva 71 · proyeccion 260.2 ± 69.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0033%+1244%0.8%cautela (no operable)$17,580
340-359$0.0045%+1021%1.1%cautela (no operable)$20,060
380-399$0.0032%+724%0.5%cautela (no operable)$12,695
400-419$0.0021%+677%0.2%cautela (no operable)$17,484
320-339$0.0097%+635%1.5%cautela (no operable)$22,461
300-319$0.0219%+314%1.7%cautela (no operable)$25,485
420-439$0.0021%+304%0.1%cautela (no operable)$15,220
100-119$0.0041%+148%0.2%cautela (no operable)$30,138
280-299$0.04510%+130%1.6%cautela (no operable)$16,962
260-279$0.07511%+51%1.0%cautela (no operable)$14,978
120-139$0.0142%+42%0.1%cautela (no operable)$38,086
240-259$0.10511%+8%0.2%moderado$10,810
lleva 0 · proyeccion 105.2 ± 51.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.0027%+4866%1.8%cautela (no operable)$3,527
140-164$0.00513%+2222%3.1%cautela (no operable)$3,470
190-214$0.0023%+2207%0.8%cautela (no operable)$1,872
115-139$0.01917%+818%4.0%cautela (no operable)$2,762
90-114$0.04419%+327%3.8%cautela (no operable)$3,917
lleva 128 · proyeccion 191.4 ± 40.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240-259$0.0057%+1187%1.6%cautela (no operable)$52,100
120-139$0.0066%+929%1.4%cautela (no operable)$124,805
260-279$0.0043%+789%0.7%cautela (no operable)$47,683
220-239$0.02113%+488%2.7%cautela (no operable)$59,834
280-299$0.0031%+330%0.2%cautela (no operable)$42,742
200-219$0.09518%+87%2.3%cautela (no operable)$53,674
lleva 851 · proyeccion 893.6 ± 33.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
960-999$0.0032%+644%0.5%cautela (no operable)$35,084
920-959$0.02919%+578%4.2%cautela (no operable)$35,405
lleva 42 · proyeccion 68.5 ± 26.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.0054%+607%0.8%cautela (no operable)$52,130
90-114$0.02517%+598%3.8%cautela (no operable)$60,402
65-89$0.24035%+46%3.6%escalable$56,745
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9%Sobre-dispersion: 10.26x27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 181.8 ± 43.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0055%+740%1.0%cautela (no operable)$19
80-99$0.0052%+253%0.3%cautela (no operable)$11
140-159$0.06514%+114%2.0%cautela (no operable)$17
200+$0.18034%+89%4.9%moderado$1,098
60-79$0.0051%+20%0.0%cautela (no operable)$23
lleva 45 · proyeccion 156.0 ± 33.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00717%+2370%4.2%cautela (no operable)$276
100-119$0.0079%+1137%2.1%cautela (no operable)$334
80-99$0.0124%+195%0.6%cautela (no operable)$168
140-159$0.08323%+178%4.0%cautela (no operable)$349
60-79$0.0061%+48%0.1%cautela (no operable)$223
lleva 123 · proyeccion 156.9 ± 18.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00315%+4998%3.8%cautela (no operable)$2,669
180-199$0.04210%+142%1.6%cautela (no operable)$5,907
140-159$0.27938%+36%3.5%escalable$4,614
200+$0.0101%+12%0.0%cautela (no operable)$11,062
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 181.6 ± 51.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0063%+436%0.7%cautela (no operable)$147
120-139$0.0269%+251%1.7%cautela (no operable)$269
100-119$0.0196%+210%1.0%cautela (no operable)$140
60-79$0.0052%+176%0.2%cautela (no operable)$161
140-159$0.09013%+41%1.0%cautela (no operable)$565
160-179$0.11015%+36%1.1%moderado$289
40-59$0.0051%+23%0.0%cautela (no operable)$164
180-199$0.13515%+12%0.5%moderado$402
lleva 64 · proyeccion 163.0 ± 38.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00314%+4627%3.5%cautela (no operable)$555
100-119$0.0038%+2542%1.9%cautela (no operable)$452
80-99$0.0033%+1030%0.8%cautela (no operable)$343
140-159$0.03119%+526%4.2%cautela (no operable)$623
160-179$0.12520%+63%2.2%moderado$1,081
60-79$0.0071%+59%0.1%cautela (no operable)$375
180-199$0.14516%+12%0.5%moderado$1,394
lleva 179 · proyeccion 216.0 ± 23.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.03418%+440%3.8%cautela (no operable)$5,148
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6%Sobre-dispersion: 7.13x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 143.7 ± 32.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.16522%+35%1.7%moderado$44
lleva 34 · proyeccion 120.7 ± 24.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.00515%+2594%3.6%cautela (no operable)$178
100-119$0.05028%+468%6.2%cautela (no operable)$139
120-139$0.16029%+84%4.0%moderado$180
60-79$0.0294%+44%0.3%cautela (no operable)$116
lleva 136 · proyeccion 162.1 ± 13.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0055%+769%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,135
140-159$0.23238%+62%4.7%escalable$1,901
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 106.7 ± 27.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0509%+84%1.1%cautela (no operable)$20
120-139$0.11520%+77%2.5%moderado$41
100-119$0.18528%+51%2.9%moderado$105
lleva 19 · proyeccion 82.2 ± 21.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.07517%+125%2.5%cautela (no operable)$586
20-39$0.0112%+97%0.3%cautela (no operable)$176
40-59$0.06812%+81%1.5%cautela (no operable)$273
80-99$0.29034%+17%1.8%escalable$622
lleva 102 · proyeccion 123.9 ± 12.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.06511%+64%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,138
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 46.8 ± 11.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.00613%+2074%3.1%cautela (no operable)$67
40-59$0.12560%+383%13.7%moderado$143
lleva 5 · proyeccion 31.0 ± 8.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.09016%+78%1.9%cautela (no operable)$540
<20$0.0509%+76%1.0%cautela (no operable)$406
lleva 25 · proyeccion 32.9 ± 4.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0408%+97%1.0%cautela (no operable)$1,953
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.1x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.8 ± 11.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.48059%+24%5.5%escalable$228
lleva 19 · proyeccion 35.9 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.31134%+10%1.1%escalable$133
lleva 39 · proyeccion 44.0 ± 5.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.07519%+149%3.0%cautela (no operable)$4,731
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1%Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.2 ± 10.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.04518%+305%3.6%cautela (no operable)$20
15-19$0.04313%+210%2.4%cautela (no operable)$20
5-9$0.09020%+118%2.9%cautela (no operable)$20
20-24$0.0448%+75%0.9%cautela (no operable)$20
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.5 ± 7.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0057%+1231%1.6%cautela (no operable)$306
10-14$0.01316%+1093%3.7%cautela (no operable)$388
5-9$0.06525%+286%5.0%cautela (no operable)$712
20-24$0.0052%+254%0.3%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.3 ± 3.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.02719%+596%4.1%cautela (no operable)$1,016
10-14$0.0052%+225%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,485