Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.315 67% +112% 12.9% escalable $3,482 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.115 19% +69% 2.2% moderado $6,915 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.184 29% +56% 3.2% moderado $1,495 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.134 16% +19% 0.8% moderado $87,701 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.420 46% +8% 1.5% escalable $2,052
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,462 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 455 · proyeccion 954.2 ± 113.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.015 34% +2122% 8.3% cautela (no operable) $7,528 960-999 $0.018 14% +640% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $11,920 920-959 $0.026 14% +436% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $5,958 880-919 $0.090 12% +39% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $5,961
lleva 118 · proyeccion 213.4 ± 49.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 8% +5566% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $84,213 240-259 $0.007 12% +1661% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $91,885 120-139 $0.004 4% +759% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $164,925 220-239 $0.026 15% +474% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $85,006 200-219 $0.134 16% +19% 0.8% moderado $87,701
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,600 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 92 · proyeccion 151.5 ± 26.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.006 9% +1229% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,780 80-99 $0.003 2% +563% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,093 120-139 $0.044 21% +384% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $2,009
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 100.2 ± 23.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 31% +20453% 7.7% cautela (no operable) $4,094 80-99 $0.002 30% +19946% 7.5% cautela (no operable) $4,288 120-139 $0.002 16% +10440% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $4,893 140-159 $0.006 4% +574% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $5,205
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,699 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 6.04x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 83 · proyeccion 126.3 ± 16.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.184 29% +56% 3.2% moderado $1,495 80-99 $0.041 5% +14% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $512 120-139 $0.420 46% +8% 1.5% escalable $2,052
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,726 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.23x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 36 · proyeccion 67.3 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.045 11% +149% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,560 60-79 $0.315 67% +112% 12.9% escalable $3,482
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 850 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 20 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.115 19% +69% 2.2% moderado $6,915
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 464 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 7 · proyeccion 16.3 ± 7.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.034 32% +856% 7.5% cautela (no operable) $2,861
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 6.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.004 3% +466% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $629 10-14 $0.021 11% +460% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $768 5-9 $0.073 27% +263% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $1,339
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).