CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.195	55%	+180%	10.9%	moderado	$2,173
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.130	36%	+177%	6.6%	moderado	$89
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.210	57%	+174%	11.6%	escalable	$968
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.175	29%	+66%	3.5%	moderado	$2,478
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.110	18%	+62%	1.9%	moderado	$325
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.185	29%	+56%	3.2%	moderado	$1,105
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.100	15%	+51%	1.4%	moderado	$942
Donald Trump	200+	$0.175	25%	+46%	2.4%	moderado	$575
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.295	41%	+40%	4.2%	escalable	$5,114
Donald Trump	180-199	$0.205	28%	+36%	2.3%	escalable	$3,909
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.470	60%	+27%	6.0%	escalable	$2,145
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.155	19%	+21%	1.0%	moderado	$6,779

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,294 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 39% del periodo

lleva 280 · proyeccion 1034.4 ± 139.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.050	60%	+1098%	14.4%	cautela (no operable)	$5,141
960-999	$0.013	11%	+714%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$8,328
920-959	$0.054	9%	+66%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$3,924

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 346.7 ± 94.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
400-419	$0.002	7%	+4416%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$2,514
420-439	$0.002	6%	+3737%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,678
500+	$0.002	5%	+3408%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$17,204
360-379	$0.004	8%	+2244%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,940
380-399	$0.004	8%	+1806%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,210
320-339	$0.007	8%	+1087%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$4,765
340-359	$0.008	8%	+955%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,792
300-319	$0.012	8%	+551%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$3,122
280-299	$0.023	7%	+206%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$4,961
260-279	$0.055	6%	+10%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,420

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 42 · proyeccion 262.4 ± 75.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
340-359	$0.003	5%	+2072%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$13,726
360-379	$0.002	4%	+1830%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$16,889
320-339	$0.004	7%	+1681%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$13,010
380-399	$0.002	3%	+1604%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$20,627
300-319	$0.009	9%	+924%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$21,489
280-299	$0.015	10%	+540%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$19,390
260-279	$0.034	11%	+214%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$11,776
100-119	$0.005	1%	+171%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$43,001
240-259	$0.065	10%	+60%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,653
120-139	$0.019	2%	+15%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$33,730

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 110.3 ± 53.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
165-189	$0.002	9%	+5625%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$8,037
140-164	$0.003	14%	+5397%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$9,763
115-139	$0.009	18%	+1983%	4.2%	cautela (no operable)	$6,422
90-114	$0.043	18%	+322%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$14,118

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 128 · proyeccion 197.0 ± 42.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
260-279	$0.002	4%	+2817%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$108,152
120-139	$0.002	5%	+2555%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$251,454
240-259	$0.004	9%	+2401%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$142,013
220-239	$0.017	14%	+750%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$107,485
200-219	$0.056	18%	+221%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$103,602

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,454 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.49x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 178.8 ± 45.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.005	6%	+904%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$154
80-99	$0.005	3%	+370%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$254
120-139	$0.021	10%	+364%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$154
140-159	$0.045	14%	+216%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$132
160-179	$0.090	17%	+90%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$286
60-79	$0.005	1%	+81%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$290

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 63 · proyeccion 165.5 ± 34.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.002	21%	+13640%	5.1%	cautela (no operable)	$2,515
160-179	$0.011	23%	+2069%	5.5%	cautela (no operable)	$2,828

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 160 · proyeccion 193.7 ± 19.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.012	19%	+1521%	4.6%	cautela (no operable)	$5,070

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,154 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 167.1 ± 49.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.002	1%	+536%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$484
60-79	$0.006	2%	+254%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$100
80-99	$0.025	5%	+85%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$232
200+	$0.175	25%	+46%	2.4%	moderado	$575

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 51 · proyeccion 159.3 ± 39.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.003	2%	+433%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,658
80-99	$0.019	4%	+123%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,439
120-139	$0.100	15%	+51%	1.4%	moderado	$942
40-59	$0.004	0%	+31%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,493
140-159	$0.175	19%	+11%	0.6%	moderado	$1,132

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 145 · proyeccion 173.0 ± 20.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.090	20%	+126%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$2,795
180-199	$0.205	28%	+36%	2.3%	escalable	$3,909

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,561 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 137.8 ± 27.5

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 52 · proyeccion 132.9 ± 21.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.130	36%	+177%	6.6%	moderado	$89
60-79	$0.003	1%	+82%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$893

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 120 · proyeccion 145.6 ± 11.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.175	29%	+66%	3.5%	moderado	$2,478

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,679 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.4 ± 17.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.015	15%	+897%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$266
100-119	$0.074	40%	+433%	8.7%	cautela (no operable)	$442
140-159	$0.005	2%	+254%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$291

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 17 · proyeccion 78.9 ± 13.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.042	7%	+59%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$160
80-99	$0.355	42%	+17%	2.4%	escalable	$604

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 49 · proyeccion 70.2 ± 8.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.080	13%	+58%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,525

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 818 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 48.0 ± 11.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.040	16%	+306%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,845
40-59	$0.470	60%	+27%	6.0%	escalable	$2,145

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 8 · proyeccion 37.7 ± 9.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.295	41%	+40%	4.2%	escalable	$5,114
<20	$0.021	3%	+19%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$2,912

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 27 · proyeccion 35.2 ± 4.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.155	19%	+21%	1.0%	moderado	$6,779

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 452 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.0 ± 12.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.011	19%	+1650%	4.6%	cautela (no operable)	$256
20-39	$0.210	57%	+174%	11.6%	escalable	$968
60-79	$0.005	1%	+34%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$215

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 9.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.195	55%	+180%	10.9%	moderado	$2,173

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 10.9 ± 6.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.011	8%	+611%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,020

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 10.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.056	14%	+159%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$40
10-14	$0.110	18%	+62%	1.9%	moderado	$325
20-24	$0.070	9%	+35%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$30

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 8.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.005	4%	+794%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$278
10-14	$0.029	18%	+514%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$316
15-19	$0.020	11%	+429%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$269

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 5.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.033	10%	+205%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$606
5-9	$0.185	29%	+56%	3.2%	moderado	$1,105