CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-13 03:54 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21058%+175%11.6%escalable$968
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21557%+164%11.2%escalable$2,237
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.14529%+99%4.2%moderado$1,126
Ted Cruz120-139$0.20535%+72%4.7%escalable$89
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.11518%+55%1.8%moderado$325
Ted Cruz140-159$0.16525%+54%2.7%moderado$30
Ted Cruz120-139$0.14020%+46%1.9%moderado$2,507
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.28039%+40%3.9%escalable$5,114
Donald Trump200+$0.17523%+32%1.7%moderado$575
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.47060%+27%6.0%escalable$2,145
The White House180-199$0.31539%+24%2.8%escalable$9,883
Ted Cruz100-119$0.14417%+21%0.9%moderado$447
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 280 · proyeccion 1030.8 ± 138.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.05059%+1078%14.2%cautela (no operable)$5,161
960-999$0.01611%+569%2.3%cautela (no operable)$8,593
920-959$0.0359%+164%1.5%cautela (no operable)$4,033
lleva 0 · proyeccion 343.2 ± 93.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0027%+4313%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,514
420-439$0.0026%+3613%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,678
500+$0.0025%+3089%1.2%cautela (no operable)$17,311
360-379$0.0048%+2232%2.0%cautela (no operable)$2,940
380-399$0.0048%+2048%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,210
320-339$0.0078%+1100%1.9%cautela (no operable)$4,765
340-359$0.0088%+959%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,792
300-319$0.0128%+563%1.7%cautela (no operable)$3,222
280-299$0.0227%+228%1.3%cautela (no operable)$5,061
260-279$0.0456%+39%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,540
lleva 42 · proyeccion 258.9 ± 74.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0024%+2285%0.9%cautela (no operable)$16,895
340-359$0.0035%+1950%1.2%cautela (no operable)$14,429
320-339$0.0047%+1853%1.6%cautela (no operable)$13,115
380-399$0.0022%+1450%0.5%cautela (no operable)$21,044
300-319$0.0098%+898%1.9%cautela (no operable)$21,898
280-299$0.01410%+601%2.1%cautela (no operable)$20,157
260-279$0.02211%+369%2.1%cautela (no operable)$12,381
100-119$0.0051%+190%0.2%cautela (no operable)$43,322
240-259$0.06511%+63%1.1%cautela (no operable)$7,951
lleva 0 · proyeccion 106.8 ± 52.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00313%+5139%3.2%cautela (no operable)$9,763
165-189$0.0028%+5110%1.9%cautela (no operable)$8,037
115-139$0.00918%+1965%4.2%cautela (no operable)$6,422
90-114$0.04119%+364%3.8%cautela (no operable)$14,149
lleva 128 · proyeccion 193.5 ± 41.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240-259$0.0038%+2991%1.9%cautela (no operable)$144,419
120-139$0.0036%+2231%1.4%cautela (no operable)$255,632
220-239$0.01113%+1049%3.0%cautela (no operable)$109,103
200-219$0.04218%+331%3.6%cautela (no operable)$106,518
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.5x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 177.5 ± 45.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0056%+944%1.3%cautela (no operable)$154
80-99$0.0053%+392%0.5%cautela (no operable)$254
120-139$0.02110%+378%2.0%cautela (no operable)$154
140-159$0.04014%+262%2.7%cautela (no operable)$132
160-179$0.09017%+92%2.3%cautela (no operable)$286
60-79$0.0051%+91%0.1%cautela (no operable)$290
lleva 63 · proyeccion 164.3 ± 34.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00221%+13933%5.2%cautela (no operable)$2,515
160-179$0.01523%+1472%5.4%cautela (no operable)$2,828
lleva 160 · proyeccion 192.4 ± 19.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01421%+1387%4.9%cautela (no operable)$5,158
180-199$0.31539%+24%2.8%escalable$9,883
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 14.27x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 164.0 ± 48.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0021%+589%0.2%cautela (no operable)$484
60-79$0.0062%+283%0.5%cautela (no operable)$100
80-99$0.0335%+54%0.5%cautela (no operable)$232
200+$0.17523%+32%1.7%moderado$575
120-139$0.12013%+6%0.2%moderado$103
lleva 51 · proyeccion 155.5 ± 38.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0032%+502%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,658
80-99$0.0205%+145%0.7%cautela (no operable)$1,439
100-119$0.04310%+140%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,352
40-59$0.0041%+46%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,493
120-139$0.14516%+13%0.6%moderado$942
lleva 145 · proyeccion 169.2 ± 18.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.08525%+190%4.4%cautela (no operable)$2,800
180-199$0.21524%+11%0.7%escalable$3,917
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.49x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 136.0 ± 27.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.16525%+54%2.7%moderado$30
120-139$0.24528%+13%1.1%escalable$30
lleva 57 · proyeccion 135.9 ± 20.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.20535%+72%4.7%escalable$89
100-119$0.14417%+21%0.9%moderado$447
140-159$0.27530%+10%1.0%escalable$1,001
60-79$0.0030%+8%0.0%cautela (no operable)$893
lleva 125 · proyeccion 148.7 ± 11.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.14020%+46%1.9%moderado$2,507
140-159$0.56562%+9%3.1%escalable$3,311
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.4 ± 17.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.01515%+897%3.4%cautela (no operable)$266
100-119$0.07940%+403%8.6%cautela (no operable)$442
140-159$0.0052%+254%0.3%cautela (no operable)$291
lleva 17 · proyeccion 78.9 ± 13.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0487%+39%0.5%cautela (no operable)$160
80-99$0.35542%+17%2.4%escalable$604
lleva 49 · proyeccion 70.2 ± 8.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.07513%+68%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,525
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.5 ± 11.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.03515%+331%3.0%cautela (no operable)$1,845
40-59$0.47060%+27%6.0%escalable$2,145
lleva 8 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 9.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0153%+80%0.3%cautela (no operable)$2,912
40-59$0.28039%+40%3.9%escalable$5,114
lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.7 ± 4.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.4 ± 12.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01118%+1539%4.3%cautela (no operable)$256
20-39$0.21058%+175%11.6%escalable$968
60-79$0.0051%+13%0.0%cautela (no operable)$215
lleva 5 · proyeccion 22.0 ± 9.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.21557%+164%11.2%escalable$2,237
lleva 5 · proyeccion 11.5 ± 6.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0139%+590%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.05614%+159%2.3%cautela (no operable)$40
10-14$0.11518%+55%1.8%moderado$325
20-24$0.0689%+39%0.7%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 8.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0054%+794%1.0%cautela (no operable)$278
10-14$0.03518%+426%3.8%cautela (no operable)$316
15-19$0.05211%+101%1.4%cautela (no operable)$269
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 5.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02710%+273%1.9%cautela (no operable)$606
5-9$0.14529%+99%4.2%moderado$1,126