Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.165 76% +359% 17.7% moderado $3,492 Donald Trump 200+ $0.140 54% +285% 11.6% moderado $267 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.125 37% +196% 7.0% moderado $0 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.146 36% +145% 6.2% moderado $534 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.225 51% +126% 9.1% escalable $661 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.250 48% +92% 7.7% escalable $1,936 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.170 27% +58% 3.0% moderado $2,680 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.165 26% +55% 2.7% moderado $3,919 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.365 55% +50% 7.2% escalable $0 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.130 19% +45% 1.7% moderado $356 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.370 51% +38% 5.6% escalable $754 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.100 14% +37% 1.0% moderado $196
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,185 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 170 · proyeccion 1107.2 ± 154.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.165 76% +359% 17.7% moderado $3,492
lleva 0 · proyeccion 400.2 ± 101.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 16% +10771% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $697 400-419 $0.006 8% +1207% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $50 420-439 $0.006 8% +1159% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $5 360-379 $0.006 8% +1057% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $62 340-359 $0.007 7% +827% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $187 380-399 $0.013 8% +527% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $50 320-339 $0.013 6% +394% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $175 300-319 $0.021 5% +157% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $194 280-299 $0.027 4% +61% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,483
lleva 18 · proyeccion 265.3 ± 79.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.002 4% +2739% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $17,556 340-359 $0.003 6% +2192% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $21,118 320-339 $0.004 7% +1968% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $14,305 380-399 $0.002 3% +1882% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $23,987 400-419 $0.002 2% +1199% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $15,473 300-319 $0.009 9% +910% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $12,146 280-299 $0.018 10% +417% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $12,975 80-99 $0.004 1% +151% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $36,976 260-279 $0.045 10% +122% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5,065 100-119 $0.010 1% +48% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $39,868 240-259 $0.085 10% +16% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $3,582
lleva 102 · proyeccion 222.7 ± 55.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.003 4% +1610% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $54,608 320-339 $0.002 2% +1432% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $39,721 280-299 $0.005 7% +1171% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $46,011 260-279 $0.011 10% +775% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $54,934 240-259 $0.021 13% +492% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $37,053 120-139 $0.007 4% +373% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $78,828 220-239 $0.075 14% +89% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $40,904
lleva 0 · proyeccion 82.5 ± 45.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 7% +4586% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $3,758 115-139 $0.007 14% +1840% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $5,230 165-189 $0.002 3% +1716% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $7,891 90-114 $0.040 20% +398% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $3,538 65-89 $0.195 21% +9% 0.6% moderado $3,740
lleva 36 · proyeccion 45.2 ± 15.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 65-89 $0.009 10% +985% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $69,238
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,326 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.3 ± 48.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.006 1% +139% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $17 140-159 $0.080 10% +26% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $21
lleva 21 · proyeccion 150.1 ± 39.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 18% +5754% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $346 100-119 $0.004 12% +3301% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $426 140-159 $0.030 20% +570% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $581 160-179 $0.160 18% +12% 0.6% moderado $658
lleva 106 · proyeccion 159.5 ± 25.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 16% +7771% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $1,029 100-119 $0.002 5% +3092% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $463 140-159 $0.042 29% +580% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $2,710
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,054 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.8 ± 54.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.140 54% +285% 11.6% moderado $267 180-199 $0.075 14% +87% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $163 160-179 $0.070 12% +69% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $210
lleva 18 · proyeccion 142.8 ± 42.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 2% +249% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $366 80-99 $0.026 9% +225% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $572 60-79 $0.017 4% +154% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $330 20-39 $0.004 1% +62% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $986 100-119 $0.086 14% +60% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,044
lleva 112 · proyeccion 177.9 ± 30.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.018 8% +343% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,850 140-159 $0.065 17% +160% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $2,466 160-179 $0.210 25% +17% 1.1% escalable $2,188
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,469 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.0 ± 29.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.025 5% +104% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $40
lleva 18 · proyeccion 115.1 ± 23.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.030 5% +78% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $97 80-99 $0.130 19% +45% 1.7% moderado $356 100-119 $0.275 32% +18% 1.7% escalable $195
lleva 112 · proyeccion 153.0 ± 15.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.016 17% +976% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $619 140-159 $0.250 48% +92% 7.7% escalable $1,936 100-119 $0.008 1% +62% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $517
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,639 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 117.6 ± 19.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.050 34% +573% 7.5% cautela (no operable) $0 100-119 $0.125 37% +196% 7.0% moderado $0
lleva 7 · proyeccion 83.4 ± 15.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.100 14% +37% 1.0% moderado $196
lleva 37 · proyeccion 72.9 ± 10.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.205 26% +26% 1.6% escalable $1,764
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 798 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5% Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 56.0 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.146 36% +145% 6.2% moderado $534 40-59 $0.225 51% +126% 9.1% escalable $661
lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.025 4% +46% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,125 40-59 $0.330 40% +22% 2.8% escalable $2,857
lleva 18 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 6.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 31.8 ± 13.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.016 26% +1532% 6.2% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.365 55% +50% 7.2% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 20.8 ± 10.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.370 51% +38% 5.6% escalable $754
lleva 6 · proyeccion 15.2 ± 7.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.170 27% +58% 3.0% moderado $2,680
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.7 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 35-39 $0.011 1% +32% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.013 6% +350% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $82 10-14 $0.053 18% +240% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $199 15-19 $0.042 12% +179% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $83
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 6.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 3% +424% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,321 10-14 $0.030 12% +314% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $2,119 5-9 $0.165 26% +55% 2.7% moderado $3,919
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.