CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-09 07:11 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.15576%+390%17.9%moderado$4,187
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.15541%+164%7.5%moderado$24
Ted Cruz140-159$0.19543%+122%7.4%moderado$2,625
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.22046%+109%7.7%escalable$777
Elon Musk65-89$0.14527%+83%3.5%moderado$34,470
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.33057%+72%8.8%escalable$709
Donald Trump200+$0.25042%+70%5.8%escalable$1,010
Donald Trump160-179$0.12521%+70%2.5%moderado$2,316
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.13520%+50%1.9%moderado$331
Ted Cruz160-179$0.12518%+40%1.4%moderado$0
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.43058%+36%6.8%escalable$1,330
Donald Trump140-159$0.14520%+35%1.5%moderado$936
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 202 · proyeccion 1106.3 ± 152.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.15576%+390%17.9%moderado$4,187
960-999$0.0607%+22%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,578
Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 367.5 ± 96.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.0029%+5671%2.1%cautela (no operable)$17,711
420-439$0.0027%+4368%1.6%cautela (no operable)$3,969
440-459$0.0026%+3734%1.4%cautela (no operable)$9,684
400-419$0.0047%+2038%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,854
380-399$0.0048%+1680%1.9%cautela (no operable)$775
360-379$0.0098%+765%1.8%cautela (no operable)$839
340-359$0.0118%+634%1.8%cautela (no operable)$883
320-339$0.0118%+562%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,268
300-319$0.0187%+282%1.3%cautela (no operable)$637
280-299$0.0296%+105%0.8%cautela (no operable)$3,748
Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 50 · proyeccion 264.7 ± 74.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0026%+3632%1.4%cautela (no operable)$31,441
360-379$0.0024%+2547%1.0%cautela (no operable)$31,043
380-399$0.0023%+1646%0.6%cautela (no operable)$33,559
320-339$0.0047%+1531%1.7%cautela (no operable)$31,279
300-319$0.0069%+1277%2.1%cautela (no operable)$21,994
280-299$0.01510%+577%2.2%cautela (no operable)$20,790
100-119$0.0041%+246%0.2%cautela (no operable)$55,828
260-279$0.04011%+171%1.8%cautela (no operable)$11,125
120-139$0.0132%+64%0.2%cautela (no operable)$34,704
240-259$0.07511%+40%0.8%cautela (no operable)$7,451
Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 130.0 ± 57.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00212%+8150%3.1%cautela (no operable)$617
140-164$0.00316%+6292%3.9%cautela (no operable)$602
190-214$0.0028%+5209%2.0%cautela (no operable)$149
215-239$0.0024%+2738%1.0%cautela (no operable)$146
240+$0.0023%+1815%0.7%cautela (no operable)$378
115-139$0.01117%+1533%4.1%cautela (no operable)$100
90-114$0.04515%+240%2.8%cautela (no operable)$261
Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 134 · proyeccion 222.1 ± 47.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0023%+1996%0.8%cautela (no operable)$76,419
280-299$0.0046%+1667%1.5%cautela (no operable)$72,976
260-279$0.00910%+976%2.3%cautela (no operable)$72,648
320-339$0.0021%+794%0.3%cautela (no operable)$57,191
140-159$0.0095%+454%1.1%cautela (no operable)$101,340
240-259$0.03214%+343%2.8%cautela (no operable)$64,460
220-239$0.08516%+94%2.2%cautela (no operable)$67,531
Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 50% del periodo
lleva 18 · proyeccion 67.9 ± 35.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.0047%+2004%1.8%cautela (no operable)$25,639
90-114$0.02118%+722%4.0%cautela (no operable)$35,820
65-89$0.14527%+83%3.5%moderado$34,470
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 184.8 ± 47.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0059%+1450%2.0%cautela (no operable)$102
100-119$0.0055%+766%1.1%cautela (no operable)$92
80-99$0.0052%+304%0.4%cautela (no operable)$129
140-159$0.03413%+276%2.4%cautela (no operable)$248
60-79$0.0051%+58%0.1%cautela (no operable)$159
White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 33 · proyeccion 149.5 ± 37.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00418%+5146%4.5%cautela (no operable)$374
100-119$0.00412%+3342%2.9%cautela (no operable)$439
140-159$0.02121%+906%4.9%cautela (no operable)$774
White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 118 · proyeccion 158.9 ± 22.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00415%+4257%3.7%cautela (no operable)$1,766
140-159$0.04732%+582%7.2%cautela (no operable)$4,842
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 189.6 ± 52.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.25042%+70%5.8%escalable$1,010
180-199$0.13015%+17%0.6%moderado$555
160-179$0.12514%+13%0.5%moderado$474
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 47 · proyeccion 156.1 ± 39.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0022%+1186%0.5%cautela (no operable)$681
40-59$0.0021%+286%0.1%cautela (no operable)$842
100-119$0.03410%+198%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,218
80-99$0.0195%+164%0.8%cautela (no operable)$671
140-159$0.14520%+35%1.5%moderado$936
160-179$0.15519%+21%1.0%moderado$1,292
180-199$0.13014%+8%0.3%moderado$1,234
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 141 · proyeccion 191.2 ± 26.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0259%+268%1.7%cautela (no operable)$2,887
160-179$0.12521%+70%2.5%moderado$2,316
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 142.0 ± 28.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.12518%+40%1.4%moderado$0
120-139$0.20025%+27%1.7%escalable$0
140-159$0.22027%+22%1.6%escalable$173
Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 35 · proyeccion 121.8 ± 21.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.06613%+94%1.7%cautela (no operable)$376
60-79$0.0222%+10%0.1%cautela (no operable)$97
Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 129 · proyeccion 159.7 ± 13.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0116%+421%1.2%cautela (no operable)$886
140-159$0.19543%+122%7.4%moderado$2,625
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 111.6 ± 18.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.03727%+628%6.0%cautela (no operable)$20
140-159$0.0186%+239%1.1%cautela (no operable)$12
100-119$0.15541%+164%7.5%moderado$24
Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 18 · proyeccion 88.1 ± 14.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.13520%+50%1.9%moderado$331
Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 48 · proyeccion 77.6 ± 9.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.32041%+28%3.3%escalable$2,211
40-59$0.0243%+22%0.1%cautela (no operable)$654
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 50.9 ± 12.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.07323%+218%4.3%cautela (no operable)$733
40-59$0.43058%+36%6.8%escalable$1,330
NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 9 · proyeccion 38.3 ± 9.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0092%+148%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,369
40-59$0.37044%+18%2.7%escalable$3,290
NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 24 · proyeccion 34.9 ± 5.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.68579%+15%8.3%escalable$4,785
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.0 ± 12.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01922%+1050%5.1%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.33057%+72%8.8%escalable$709
CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.1 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0052%+300%0.4%cautela (no operable)$217
20-39$0.22046%+109%7.7%escalable$777
CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.4 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.03517%+378%3.4%cautela (no operable)$2,924
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0052%+317%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.05514%+157%2.3%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0439%+119%1.3%cautela (no operable)$10
25-29$0.0405%+30%0.3%cautela (no operable)$70
10-14$0.15017%+16%0.7%moderado$0
Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03517%+387%3.6%cautela (no operable)$229
15-19$0.0229%+306%1.8%cautela (no operable)$113
20-24$0.0153%+128%0.5%cautela (no operable)$112
Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0166%+256%1.0%cautela (no operable)$2,408
5-9$0.08024%+196%4.3%cautela (no operable)$4,116