CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-10 20:56 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.10568%+550%16.1%moderado$4,582
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.25058%+132%11.0%escalable$1,246
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12025%+111%3.8%moderado$74
Ted Cruz100-119$0.15530%+90%4.2%moderado$395
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.33557%+70%8.8%escalable$3,035
Elon Musk65-89$0.14523%+58%2.5%moderado$5,325
Ted Cruz140-159$0.20532%+57%3.6%escalable$3,985
Ted Cruz120-139$0.27539%+42%3.9%escalable$456
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.17524%+40%2.1%moderado$749
The White House160-179$0.39851%+28%4.6%escalable$11,933
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.36545%+22%3.2%escalable$849
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.40545%+12%2.0%escalable$247
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.57x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 227 · proyeccion 1069.0 ± 146.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.10568%+550%16.1%moderado$4,582
960-999$0.0379%+140%1.4%cautela (no operable)$3,788
920-959$0.0667%+12%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,297
lleva 0 · proyeccion 306.6 ± 88.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0025%+2962%1.1%cautela (no operable)$7,958
380-399$0.0036%+2226%1.4%cautela (no operable)$3,051
420-439$0.0023%+2199%0.8%cautela (no operable)$13,072
440-459$0.0022%+1540%0.6%cautela (no operable)$10,715
360-379$0.0047%+1455%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,203
340-359$0.0058%+1355%1.9%cautela (no operable)$4,204
320-339$0.0099%+923%2.0%cautela (no operable)$2,142
500+$0.0021%+880%0.3%cautela (no operable)$22,924
300-319$0.0189%+386%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,921
280-299$0.0259%+260%1.6%cautela (no operable)$6,828
80-99$0.0030%+80%0.1%cautela (no operable)$16,593
260-279$0.0508%+65%0.8%cautela (no operable)$1,052
lleva 0 · proyeccion 195.9 ± 70.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240+$0.00327%+10653%6.7%cautela (no operable)$112
190-214$0.00414%+3891%3.4%cautela (no operable)$18
165-189$0.00414%+3767%3.3%cautela (no operable)$541
215-239$0.00413%+3540%3.1%cautela (no operable)$18
140-164$0.00412%+3212%2.8%cautela (no operable)$541
115-139$0.0119%+736%1.9%cautela (no operable)$540
90-114$0.0456%+30%0.4%cautela (no operable)$49
lleva 75 · proyeccion 229.6 ± 62.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0024%+2308%0.9%cautela (no operable)$45,320
300-319$0.0036%+1790%1.4%cautela (no operable)$40,830
280-299$0.0068%+1139%1.9%cautela (no operable)$34,217
260-279$0.01310%+666%2.3%cautela (no operable)$22,733
100-119$0.0052%+276%0.4%cautela (no operable)$70,601
240-259$0.04512%+167%2.0%cautela (no operable)$18,626
220-239$0.09513%+33%0.9%cautela (no operable)$18,764
lleva 0 · proyeccion 69.9 ± 42.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.00410%+2637%2.3%cautela (no operable)$3,418
140-164$0.0024%+2378%0.9%cautela (no operable)$3,340
90-114$0.01318%+1201%4.1%cautela (no operable)$5,523
65-89$0.14523%+58%2.5%moderado$5,325
lleva 159 · proyeccion 187.0 ± 26.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00411%+2433%2.8%cautela (no operable)$307,512
240-259$0.0022%+1340%0.5%cautela (no operable)$145,376
220-239$0.0069%+1247%2.0%cautela (no operable)$121,399
200-219$0.06521%+220%3.8%cautela (no operable)$142,298
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.87x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 158.0 ± 43.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00415%+3592%3.6%cautela (no operable)$605
100-119$0.00410%+2093%2.4%cautela (no operable)$605
80-99$0.0055%+969%1.2%cautela (no operable)$634
60-79$0.0052%+370%0.5%cautela (no operable)$654
140-159$0.05018%+258%3.4%cautela (no operable)$865
160-179$0.16018%+10%0.5%moderado$1,097
lleva 77 · proyeccion 166.5 ± 32.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00721%+2717%5.1%cautela (no operable)$1,717
160-179$0.09524%+153%4.0%cautela (no operable)$2,827
120-139$0.05113%+151%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,135
lleva 162 · proyeccion 175.9 ± 12.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.0193%+74%0.4%cautela (no operable)$13,297
160-179$0.39851%+28%4.6%escalable$11,933
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 158.7 ± 47.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0031%+410%0.3%cautela (no operable)$339
20-39$0.0020%+205%0.1%cautela (no operable)$687
80-99$0.0456%+31%0.4%cautela (no operable)$973
60-79$0.0283%+9%0.1%cautela (no operable)$331
200+$0.18520%+7%0.4%moderado$1,157
lleva 66 · proyeccion 144.6 ± 33.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0042%+499%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,462
80-99$0.0116%+480%1.3%cautela (no operable)$1,628
100-119$0.06014%+128%2.1%cautela (no operable)$1,851
lleva 160 · proyeccion 179.7 ± 16.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.35538%+7%1.0%escalable$4,356
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 121.2 ± 25.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0215%+115%0.6%cautela (no operable)$511
80-99$0.13515%+9%0.4%moderado$200
lleva 59 · proyeccion 125.0 ± 19.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.15530%+90%4.2%moderado$395
80-99$0.0458%+83%1.0%cautela (no operable)$439
120-139$0.27539%+42%3.9%escalable$456
lleva 153 · proyeccion 162.9 ± 7.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.20532%+57%3.6%escalable$3,985
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.4 ± 16.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12025%+111%3.8%moderado$74
120-139$0.0254%+58%0.4%cautela (no operable)$90
80-99$0.40545%+12%2.0%escalable$247
lleva 30 · proyeccion 79.4 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.36545%+22%3.2%escalable$849
100-119$0.0455%+12%0.1%cautela (no operable)$570
40-59$0.0495%+8%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,734
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.8 ± 5.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 44.0 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.33557%+70%8.8%escalable$3,035
lleva 16 · proyeccion 38.4 ± 8.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+115%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,660
40-59$0.42044%+5%0.9%escalable$4,357
lleva 31 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 3.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.06510%+46%0.8%cautela (no operable)$5,701
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 26.0 ± 11.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00612%+1822%3.0%cautela (no operable)$354
20-39$0.25058%+132%11.0%escalable$1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 15.0 ± 9.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.05031%+512%6.7%cautela (no operable)$918
lleva 6 · proyeccion 9.3 ± 4.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.4 ± 10.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+158%0.2%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.05514%+146%2.1%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0358%+132%1.2%cautela (no operable)$12
10-14$0.09018%+98%2.4%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02916%+436%3.3%cautela (no operable)$470
15-19$0.0297%+130%1.0%cautela (no operable)$279
20-24$0.0112%+60%0.2%cautela (no operable)$275
5-9$0.17524%+40%2.1%moderado$749
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.9 ± 3.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0021%+181%0.1%cautela (no operable)$3,527
5-9$0.05514%+151%2.2%cautela (no operable)$5,657