Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.190 48% +150% 8.8% moderado $1,069 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.115 28% +148% 4.8% moderado $2,503 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.205 37% +82% 5.3% escalable $1,489 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.295 52% +77% 8.0% escalable $2,252 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.275 48% +73% 6.9% escalable $1,074 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.120 20% +69% 2.4% moderado $4,516 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.330 45% +36% 4.4% escalable $4,155 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.400 49% +24% 3.9% escalable $3,364 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.205 25% +22% 1.4% escalable $584 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.160 19% +20% 1.0% moderado $1,525 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.265 32% +19% 1.8% escalable $626 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.255 30% +19% 1.6% escalable $7,211
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,363 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 348 · proyeccion 983.9 ± 127.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 45% +652% 10.4% cautela (no operable) $6,478 960-999 $0.026 12% +379% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $9,540 920-959 $0.072 12% +63% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,615
lleva 11 · proyeccion 241.2 ± 76.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 7% +3398% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $42,133 320-339 $0.002 5% +2586% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $51,658 280-299 $0.004 9% +1792% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $23,163 260-279 $0.009 10% +920% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $10,305 60-79 $0.002 1% +474% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $22,781 240-259 $0.021 10% +379% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $7,285 220-239 $0.055 10% +86% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $5,912 80-99 $0.013 1% +10% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $52,453
lleva 110 · proyeccion 214.4 ± 51.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 5% +3502% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $72,279 260-279 $0.004 9% +1843% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $68,888 300-319 $0.002 3% +1819% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $70,901 240-259 $0.007 12% +1528% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $64,654 220-239 $0.032 15% +367% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $43,085 120-139 $0.018 4% +132% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $132,052
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,534 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 26 · proyeccion 149.0 ± 37.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 21% +4118% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $588 120-139 $0.005 18% +3594% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $533 80-99 $0.003 6% +2350% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $747 100-119 $0.005 12% +2346% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $571 60-79 $0.003 2% +827% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $781 160-179 $0.055 18% +231% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $946
lleva 132 · proyeccion 178.4 ± 23.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.033 31% +866% 7.3% cautela (no operable) $5,130
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,261 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 54 · proyeccion 172.4 ± 41.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.085 11% +33% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $697 160-179 $0.160 19% +20% 1.0% moderado $1,525
lleva 133 · proyeccion 191.8 ± 28.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.120 20% +69% 2.4% moderado $4,516 140-159 $0.090 10% +7% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,018
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,655 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 39 · proyeccion 134.7 ± 24.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.265 32% +19% 1.8% escalable $626
lleva 136 · proyeccion 173.8 ± 15.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 1% +464% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,267 140-159 $0.050 16% +220% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $2,060 160-179 $0.275 48% +73% 6.9% escalable $1,074 180-199 $0.290 31% +6% 0.6% escalable $379
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,711 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 15 · proyeccion 84.8 ± 15.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 15% +1349% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $562 120-139 $0.004 1% +186% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $322 80-99 $0.190 48% +150% 8.8% moderado $1,069
lleva 47 · proyeccion 76.6 ± 9.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 1% +215% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $236 80-99 $0.205 37% +82% 5.3% escalable $1,489
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 835 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 7 · proyeccion 38.6 ± 9.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 1% +151% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,474 40-59 $0.330 45% +36% 4.4% escalable $4,155
lleva 23 · proyeccion 36.3 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.255 30% +19% 1.6% escalable $7,211
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 460 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 20.8 ± 10.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.009 3% +260% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.295 52% +77% 8.0% escalable $2,252
lleva 12 · proyeccion 19.4 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.400 49% +24% 3.9% escalable $3,364
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 8% +1454% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 2% +360% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $180 10-14 $0.075 17% +130% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $372 5-9 $0.205 25% +22% 1.4% escalable $584
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.006 6% +983% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,152 5-9 $0.115 28% +148% 4.8% moderado $2,503 15-19 $0.002 0% +142% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $972
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.