Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.115 28% +148% 4.8% moderado $2,542 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.210 48% +130% 8.7% escalable $1,075 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.205 39% +91% 5.9% escalable $1,624 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.175 33% +89% 4.7% moderado $657 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.305 54% +78% 8.6% escalable $2,257 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.325 52% +62% 7.4% escalable $1,912 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.355 53% +50% 7.0% escalable $3,458 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.345 47% +37% 4.8% escalable $4,178 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.160 20% +25% 1.2% moderado $1,675 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.155 17% +11% 0.5% moderado $1,200 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.230 25% +9% 0.7% escalable $634 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.187 20% +7% 0.4% moderado $975
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,386 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 371 · proyeccion 987.5 ± 125.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 46% +670% 10.7% cautela (no operable) $6,657 960-999 $0.025 13% +405% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $9,620 920-959 $0.051 12% +128% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $4,695
lleva 34 · proyeccion 244.8 ± 73.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 7% +3581% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $44,623 280-299 $0.003 9% +2902% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $32,307 340-359 $0.002 4% +2529% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $38,794 320-339 $0.003 6% +2136% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $52,057 260-279 $0.009 10% +977% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $12,051 240-259 $0.022 11% +380% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $9,087 80-99 $0.003 1% +370% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $59,978 220-239 $0.065 11% +63% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $7,767 100-119 $0.018 2% +12% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $74,193
lleva 133 · proyeccion 217.9 ± 46.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 5% +3444% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $80,280 260-279 $0.003 9% +2997% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $76,411 240-259 $0.006 14% +1984% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $83,591 300-319 $0.002 3% +1591% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $79,049 140-159 $0.015 6% +292% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $157,695 220-239 $0.043 16% +279% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $59,103
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,543 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 35 · proyeccion 153.2 ± 36.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 18% +3087% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $563 140-159 $0.009 21% +2417% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $671 100-119 $0.005 11% +1853% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $601 160-179 $0.029 20% +585% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $976
lleva 141 · proyeccion 182.6 ± 21.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.017 30% +1711% 7.2% cautela (no operable) $6,174
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 171.6 ± 39.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.060 11% +91% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $716 60-79 $0.004 1% +88% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $3,629 100-119 $0.033 6% +83% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $750 160-179 $0.160 20% +25% 1.2% moderado $1,675 80-99 $0.021 2% +14% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,108 140-159 $0.155 17% +11% 0.5% moderado $1,200
lleva 141 · proyeccion 191.1 ± 26.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 9% +1565% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $3,542 160-179 $0.075 21% +185% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $5,029
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,659 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 45 · proyeccion 133.6 ± 23.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.175 33% +89% 4.7% moderado $657 100-119 $0.187 20% +7% 0.4% moderado $975
lleva 142 · proyeccion 172.8 ± 13.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.040 16% +293% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $2,066 160-179 $0.325 52% +62% 7.4% escalable $1,912
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,711 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 85.3 ± 14.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.015 16% +953% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $562 80-99 $0.210 48% +130% 8.7% escalable $1,075 120-139 $0.006 1% +71% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $322
lleva 49 · proyeccion 77.1 ± 9.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 1% +272% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $276 40-59 $0.017 3% +92% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,224 80-99 $0.205 39% +91% 5.9% escalable $1,624
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 840 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 10 · proyeccion 39.1 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.345 47% +37% 4.8% escalable $4,178 <20 $0.013 2% +20% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,436
lleva 26 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 5.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 461 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.009 3% +254% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.305 54% +78% 8.6% escalable $2,257
lleva 13 · proyeccion 20.0 ± 6.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.355 53% +50% 7.0% escalable $3,458
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 8% +1313% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 2% +318% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $180 10-14 $0.065 17% +165% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $400 5-9 $0.230 25% +9% 0.7% escalable $634
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.003 6% +2499% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,162 15-19 $0.002 0% +222% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $982 5-9 $0.115 28% +148% 4.8% moderado $2,542
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.