Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.150 75% +398% 17.5% moderado $4,207 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.150 42% +177% 7.8% moderado $74 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.180 45% +149% 8.2% moderado $777 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.220 45% +103% 7.3% escalable $2,625 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.145 27% +85% 3.6% moderado $42,222 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.330 57% +73% 9.0% escalable $738 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.105 17% +66% 1.9% moderado $0 Donald Trump 200+ $0.250 41% +64% 5.3% escalable $1,030 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.165 27% +61% 3.0% moderado $173 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.145 23% +56% 2.4% moderado $2,339 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.430 59% +36% 6.9% escalable $1,350 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.125 17% +32% 1.2% moderado $1,468
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,217 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 204 · proyeccion 1099.9 ± 151.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.150 75% +398% 17.5% moderado $4,207 960-999 $0.043 8% +76% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $2,903
lleva 0 · proyeccion 359.3 ± 95.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 7% +4680% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $19,065 420-439 $0.002 6% +4140% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $3,979 400-419 $0.004 7% +1971% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,229 380-399 $0.004 8% +1877% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,055 360-379 $0.007 8% +1002% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $959 340-359 $0.009 8% +770% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $965 320-339 $0.009 8% +734% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,508 300-319 $0.017 7% +327% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,153 280-299 $0.025 6% +160% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $4,448
lleva 52 · proyeccion 258.6 ± 72.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 5% +3254% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $37,249 320-339 $0.004 7% +1605% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $32,312 380-399 $0.002 2% +1356% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $33,951 300-319 $0.006 9% +1220% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $23,931 280-299 $0.013 10% +670% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $22,329 100-119 $0.004 1% +286% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $56,419 260-279 $0.031 11% +249% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $12,126 120-139 $0.013 2% +69% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $37,212 240-259 $0.075 11% +45% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $8,014
lleva 0 · proyeccion 121.9 ± 55.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 11% +7217% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $671 140-164 $0.003 15% +6044% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $622 115-139 $0.011 18% +1581% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $120 90-114 $0.045 17% +270% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $281
lleva 136 · proyeccion 216.1 ± 45.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.003 5% +1813% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $89,057 260-279 $0.006 9% +1255% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $76,693 140-159 $0.009 6% +610% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $112,724 240-259 $0.025 13% +446% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $83,712 220-239 $0.075 17% +123% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $75,539
lleva 20 · proyeccion 61.9 ± 32.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.002 4% +2896% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $29,153 90-114 $0.013 15% +1062% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $52,212 65-89 $0.145 27% +85% 3.6% moderado $42,222 <40 $0.175 22% +25% 1.3% moderado $46,580
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,338 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 184.0 ± 46.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 9% +1480% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $120 100-119 $0.005 5% +786% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $110 80-99 $0.005 2% +316% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $129 140-159 $0.034 13% +281% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $248 60-79 $0.005 1% +63% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $159
lleva 33 · proyeccion 148.7 ± 37.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 19% +5218% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $374 100-119 $0.004 12% +3419% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $439 140-159 $0.025 21% +732% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $826
lleva 118 · proyeccion 158.1 ± 21.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 16% +4432% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $1,766 140-159 $0.066 33% +396% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $4,842
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,083 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 187.7 ± 52.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.250 41% +64% 5.3% escalable $1,030 160-179 $0.125 14% +15% 0.5% moderado $474 180-199 $0.140 15% +9% 0.4% moderado $555
lleva 47 · proyeccion 154.2 ± 39.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.002 2% +937% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $681 80-99 $0.007 5% +612% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $671 40-59 $0.002 1% +316% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,323 100-119 $0.037 11% +188% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,253 120-139 $0.125 17% +32% 1.2% moderado $1,468 140-159 $0.160 20% +25% 1.2% moderado $936 160-179 $0.160 19% +16% 0.8% moderado $1,292
lleva 141 · proyeccion 189.3 ± 26.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.025 10% +299% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,941 160-179 $0.145 23% +56% 2.4% moderado $2,339
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,486 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 140.5 ± 27.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.050 17% +234% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.165 27% +61% 3.0% moderado $173 180-199 $0.045 6% +42% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $0 120-139 $0.215 26% +21% 1.4% escalable $0
lleva 36 · proyeccion 121.4 ± 21.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.066 13% +99% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $412 60-79 $0.018 2% +39% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $124
lleva 130 · proyeccion 159.3 ± 12.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 6% +418% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $886 140-159 $0.220 45% +103% 7.3% escalable $2,625
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,650 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 106.9 ± 18.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.065 21% +219% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $20 100-119 $0.150 42% +177% 7.8% moderado $74
lleva 19 · proyeccion 84.4 ± 14.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.105 14% +30% 0.9% moderado $452 80-99 $0.435 49% +13% 2.5% escalable $615
lleva 49 · proyeccion 73.9 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.210 26% +22% 1.5% escalable $2,330
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 804 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 50.7 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.074 22% +202% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $753 40-59 $0.430 59% +36% 6.9% escalable $1,350
lleva 9 · proyeccion 38.0 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.009 2% +146% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,369 40-59 $0.335 43% +27% 3.4% escalable $3,510
lleva 24 · proyeccion 34.6 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.715 81% +13% 8.0% escalable $4,785
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.6 ± 12.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.025 21% +753% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.330 57% +73% 9.0% escalable $738
lleva 0 · proyeccion 18.7 ± 10.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 2% +193% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $358 20-39 $0.180 45% +149% 8.2% moderado $777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.0 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.045 15% +224% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $2,976
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.2 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.005 2% +289% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $12 15-19 $0.045 14% +212% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $0 20-24 $0.050 9% +84% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $11 10-14 $0.105 17% +66% 1.9% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.1 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.033 17% +417% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $234 15-19 $0.019 9% +346% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $118 20-24 $0.018 3% +72% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $117
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 4.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.070 23% +223% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $4,136 10-14 $0.016 4% +180% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,415
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.