Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.250 58% +132% 11.0% escalable $1,246 The White House 160-179 $0.115 25% +116% 3.8% moderado $2,882 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.120 25% +108% 3.7% moderado $74 The White House 160-179 $0.287 50% +75% 7.6% escalable $12,772 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.135 24% +74% 2.9% moderado $9,956 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.365 55% +50% 7.2% escalable $3,475 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.275 40% +46% 4.4% escalable $565 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.195 25% +26% 1.6% moderado $749 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.200 23% +14% 0.8% escalable $1,369 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.380 43% +12% 1.9% escalable $4,364 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.405 45% +12% 2.0% escalable $247 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.150 16% +10% 0.4% moderado $200
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,242 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.57x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 231 · proyeccion 1069.7 ± 146.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.080 68% +755% 16.4% cautela (no operable) $4,582 960-999 $0.038 9% +137% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $4,006 920-959 $0.065 7% +13% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,442
lleva 0 · proyeccion 303.4 ± 88.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 4% +2825% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $7,993 380-399 $0.003 6% +2146% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $3,340 440-459 $0.002 2% +1430% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $10,750 360-379 $0.004 7% +1417% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $2,238 320-339 $0.006 9% +1342% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,197 340-359 $0.005 8% +1334% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,694 500+ $0.002 1% +765% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $23,459 300-319 $0.015 9% +482% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,356 280-299 $0.025 9% +264% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $7,941 260-279 $0.045 8% +87% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,187 80-99 $0.004 0% +37% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $17,975
lleva 0 · proyeccion 192.6 ± 70.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240+ $0.002 25% +16700% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $252 190-214 $0.002 14% +6906% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $38 165-189 $0.002 14% +6798% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $561 215-239 $0.002 13% +6176% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $38 140-164 $0.003 12% +4692% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $561 115-139 $0.006 9% +1312% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $560 90-114 $0.045 6% +38% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $69
lleva 79 · proyeccion 230.3 ± 62.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 4% +2314% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $45,340 300-319 $0.003 6% +2188% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $40,990 280-299 $0.004 8% +1712% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $35,266 260-279 $0.010 10% +949% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $25,509 240-259 $0.025 12% +378% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $20,497 100-119 $0.007 2% +162% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $72,908 220-239 $0.085 13% +50% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $19,403
lleva 4 · proyeccion 70.6 ± 41.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.003 10% +3750% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $6,702 90-114 $0.014 18% +1184% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $9,029 65-89 $0.135 24% +74% 2.9% moderado $9,956
lleva 163 · proyeccion 187.8 ± 25.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.004 8% +2291% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $129,846 240-259 $0.002 2% +1079% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $152,357 200-219 $0.040 22% +449% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $156,573
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,374 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.87x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.8 ± 42.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 16% +3464% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $605 100-119 $0.005 11% +2137% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $605 80-99 $0.005 6% +1157% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $634 140-159 $0.026 19% +612% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $865 60-79 $0.005 3% +468% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $654
lleva 85 · proyeccion 169.3 ± 31.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.017 21% +1108% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $1,880 120-139 $0.039 12% +196% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,142 160-179 $0.115 25% +116% 3.8% moderado $2,882
lleva 170 · proyeccion 178.7 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.009 2% +111% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $13,580 160-179 $0.287 50% +75% 7.6% escalable $12,772
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,102 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 153.9 ± 47.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.003 2% +501% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $350 60-79 $0.007 3% +362% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $342 20-39 $0.002 1% +264% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $698 80-99 $0.045 7% +49% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $984
lleva 87 · proyeccion 160.7 ± 32.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 2% +432% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,677 120-139 $0.075 15% +106% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $2,050 100-119 $0.039 7% +87% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $2,137 140-159 $0.200 23% +14% 0.8% escalable $1,369
lleva 181 · proyeccion 195.8 ± 14.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.375 40% +7% 1.1% escalable $9,447
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,505 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 118.6 ± 25.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.021 5% +152% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $511 80-99 $0.150 16% +10% 0.4% moderado $200
lleva 63 · proyeccion 126.4 ± 18.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.085 28% +230% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $415 80-99 $0.040 7% +73% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $439 120-139 $0.275 40% +46% 4.4% escalable $565
lleva 157 · proyeccion 164.3 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.075 22% +198% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $4,096
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,662 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.2 ± 16.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.120 25% +108% 3.7% moderado $74 120-139 $0.025 4% +54% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $90 80-99 $0.405 45% +12% 2.0% escalable $247
lleva 30 · proyeccion 79.2 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.038 5% +41% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,734 100-119 $0.043 5% +12% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $570 80-99 $0.405 44% +9% 1.5% escalable $872
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.6 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 811 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 42.7 ± 11.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.365 55% +50% 7.2% escalable $3,475
lleva 17 · proyeccion 38.1 ± 7.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +97% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,660 40-59 $0.380 43% +12% 1.9% escalable $4,364
lleva 32 · proyeccion 34.7 ± 2.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.025 4% +80% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $5,831
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.7 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 12% +1731% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $368 20-39 $0.250 58% +132% 11.0% escalable $1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 14.7 ± 8.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.050 29% +487% 6.4% cautela (no operable) $961
lleva 6 · proyeccion 9.1 ± 4.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.3 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 2% +153% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $12 15-19 $0.055 13% +145% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $0 20-24 $0.035 8% +130% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $12 10-14 $0.090 18% +98% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.029 16% +432% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $470 15-19 $0.029 7% +125% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $279 20-24 $0.012 2% +47% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $275 5-9 $0.195 25% +26% 1.6% moderado $749
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.8 ± 3.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.060 13% +115% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $5,667 10-14 $0.003 0% +73% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $3,629
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).