CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-13 11:34 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.22058%+164%11.6%escalable$1,081
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.20553%+160%10.3%escalable$2,267
Donald Trump140-159$0.12529%+130%4.7%moderado$2,937
Ted Cruz120-139$0.11524%+112%3.6%moderado$2,540
Elon Musk180-199$0.10522%+108%3.2%moderado$152,179
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.29060%+106%10.8%escalable$2,957
Ted Cruz120-139$0.20036%+82%5.2%escalable$89
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.11018%+62%1.9%moderado$325
Ted Cruz140-159$0.15525%+60%2.7%moderado$30
Donald Trump120-139$0.11017%+58%1.8%moderado$951
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.31044%+44%4.9%escalable$817
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.11215%+32%1.0%moderado$1,941
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.66x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 286 · proyeccion 1020.1 ± 137.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.05056%+1019%13.4%cautela (no operable)$5,161
960-999$0.02611%+327%2.2%cautela (no operable)$8,638
920-959$0.05310%+82%1.2%cautela (no operable)$4,038
880-919$0.0708%+13%0.2%cautela (no operable)$3,385
lleva 0 · proyeccion 326.6 ± 91.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0026%+3756%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,514
360-379$0.0038%+3019%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,940
420-439$0.0025%+2992%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,678
500+$0.0023%+1867%0.7%cautela (no operable)$17,359
380-399$0.0047%+1865%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,410
340-359$0.0058%+1433%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,792
320-339$0.0069%+1349%2.0%cautela (no operable)$4,976
300-319$0.0099%+906%1.9%cautela (no operable)$3,634
280-299$0.0218%+291%1.5%cautela (no operable)$5,061
260-279$0.0457%+59%0.7%cautela (no operable)$1,540
lleva 48 · proyeccion 248.5 ± 71.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0024%+2662%1.0%cautela (no operable)$15,163
320-339$0.0036%+2255%1.4%cautela (no operable)$14,230
360-379$0.0023%+1699%0.6%cautela (no operable)$19,488
300-319$0.0068%+1091%1.8%cautela (no operable)$25,243
280-299$0.0099%+1009%2.2%cautela (no operable)$22,846
380-399$0.0022%+985%0.4%cautela (no operable)$21,251
260-279$0.01511%+633%2.3%cautela (no operable)$14,784
100-119$0.0062%+164%0.3%cautela (no operable)$44,955
240-259$0.04511%+146%1.7%cautela (no operable)$9,640
220-239$0.08511%+26%0.6%cautela (no operable)$8,480
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.4 ± 48.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0039%+3584%2.2%cautela (no operable)$9,872
165-189$0.0024%+2713%1.0%cautela (no operable)$8,240
115-139$0.00615%+2276%3.7%cautela (no operable)$9,004
90-114$0.02820%+611%4.4%cautela (no operable)$15,087
lleva 134 · proyeccion 183.1 ± 35.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0027%+4768%1.8%cautela (no operable)$323,428
220-239$0.00310%+3765%2.4%cautela (no operable)$132,770
240-259$0.0024%+2595%1.0%cautela (no operable)$167,599
200-219$0.01817%+842%3.9%cautela (no operable)$137,490
180-199$0.10522%+108%3.2%moderado$152,179
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.5x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 177.0 ± 45.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0056%+961%1.3%cautela (no operable)$160
80-99$0.0053%+402%0.6%cautela (no operable)$276
120-139$0.02110%+396%2.1%cautela (no operable)$154
140-159$0.03315%+350%2.9%cautela (no operable)$150
60-79$0.0051%+95%0.1%cautela (no operable)$306
160-179$0.09017%+92%2.3%cautela (no operable)$286
lleva 63 · proyeccion 163.7 ± 34.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00221%+14053%5.3%cautela (no operable)$2,515
160-179$0.01523%+1472%5.4%cautela (no operable)$2,828
lleva 160 · proyeccion 191.8 ± 19.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01121%+1938%5.1%cautela (no operable)$5,262
180-199$0.34040%+16%2.1%escalable$10,769
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 14.27x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 161.1 ± 47.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0021%+663%0.2%cautela (no operable)$484
60-79$0.0063%+321%0.5%cautela (no operable)$100
200+$0.17521%+21%1.1%moderado$674
120-139$0.12013%+11%0.4%moderado$103
lleva 51 · proyeccion 152.5 ± 38.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0032%+575%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,867
100-119$0.03611%+208%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,361
80-99$0.0215%+152%0.8%cautela (no operable)$1,648
40-59$0.0041%+65%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,502
120-139$0.11017%+58%1.8%moderado$951
lleva 145 · proyeccion 166.2 ± 17.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.12529%+130%4.7%moderado$2,937
160-179$0.37543%+14%2.1%escalable$3,266
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.48x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 134.3 ± 27.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.15525%+60%2.7%moderado$30
120-139$0.23028%+23%1.7%escalable$30
160-179$0.10513%+22%0.7%moderado$30
lleva 57 · proyeccion 134.1 ± 20.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.09519%+102%2.7%cautela (no operable)$533
120-139$0.20036%+82%5.2%escalable$89
60-79$0.0030%+27%0.0%cautela (no operable)$893
140-159$0.27029%+7%0.6%escalable$1,041
lleva 125 · proyeccion 146.9 ± 10.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.11524%+112%3.6%moderado$2,540
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 98.6 ± 17.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.01111%+861%2.4%cautela (no operable)$266
100-119$0.06636%+456%8.0%cautela (no operable)$447
140-159$0.0051%+84%0.1%cautela (no operable)$291
80-99$0.32538%+18%2.2%escalable$532
lleva 22 · proyeccion 80.1 ± 13.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0467%+57%0.7%cautela (no operable)$160
80-99$0.31044%+44%4.9%escalable$817
lleva 54 · proyeccion 71.4 ± 7.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.05514%+146%2.1%cautela (no operable)$1,665
40-59$0.0465%+11%0.1%cautela (no operable)$4,371
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.3 ± 11.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.29060%+106%10.8%escalable$2,957
60-79$0.11215%+32%1.0%moderado$1,941
lleva 8 · proyeccion 37.0 ± 9.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0153%+97%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,912
40-59$0.29539%+31%3.3%escalable$5,174
lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.5 ± 4.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.13514%+7%0.3%moderado$6,810
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.2 ± 12.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01115%+1284%3.6%cautela (no operable)$256
20-39$0.22058%+164%11.6%escalable$1,081
lleva 5 · proyeccion 20.7 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.20553%+160%10.3%escalable$2,267
lleva 5 · proyeccion 10.3 ± 5.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0114%+276%0.8%cautela (no operable)$1,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.3 ± 10.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.05014%+187%2.5%cautela (no operable)$40
20-24$0.0519%+81%1.1%cautela (no operable)$30
10-14$0.11018%+62%1.9%moderado$325
25-29$0.0435%+13%0.1%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 8.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0054%+768%1.0%cautela (no operable)$281
10-14$0.03418%+440%3.8%cautela (no operable)$319
15-19$0.02410%+344%2.1%cautela (no operable)$272
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 5.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02110%+346%1.9%cautela (no operable)$637
5-9$0.06529%+343%6.0%cautela (no operable)$1,280