CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-10 08:00 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.14072%+411%16.7%moderado$4,251
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12039%+222%7.5%moderado$74
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.10520%+94%2.8%moderado$5,197
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.31558%+85%9.8%escalable$792
Elon Musk200-219$0.12522%+73%2.6%moderado$107,490
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.10518%+68%2.0%moderado$0
Ted Cruz100-119$0.22034%+55%3.9%escalable$348
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.40060%+49%8.1%escalable$1,395
Ted Cruz140-159$0.17023%+38%1.9%moderado$216
Donald Trump200+$0.21529%+33%2.3%escalable$1,147
Donald Trump160-179$0.19525%+29%1.8%moderado$3,709
Donald Trump140-159$0.18022%+20%1.1%moderado$959
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 220 · proyeccion 1084.4 ± 148.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.14072%+411%16.7%moderado$4,251
960-999$0.0688%+23%0.4%cautela (no operable)$3,782
lleva 0 · proyeccion 328.4 ± 91.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0026%+3823%1.4%cautela (no operable)$6,386
380-399$0.0037%+2686%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,728
500+$0.0023%+1962%0.7%cautela (no operable)$20,335
340-359$0.0058%+1439%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,375
360-379$0.0058%+1330%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,313
320-339$0.0099%+922%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,747
300-319$0.0159%+449%1.8%cautela (no operable)$2,471
280-299$0.0298%+174%1.3%cautela (no operable)$5,812
260-279$0.0557%+29%0.4%cautela (no operable)$639
80-99$0.0030%+18%0.0%cautela (no operable)$14,839
lleva 68 · proyeccion 244.1 ± 67.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0025%+3432%1.3%cautela (no operable)$44,479
340-359$0.0023%+2218%0.8%cautela (no operable)$47,155
300-319$0.0047%+1748%1.8%cautela (no operable)$39,367
280-299$0.0099%+1010%2.2%cautela (no operable)$28,702
260-279$0.02111%+438%2.3%cautela (no operable)$16,530
100-119$0.0042%+360%0.3%cautela (no operable)$64,763
240-259$0.04512%+162%1.9%cautela (no operable)$13,788
220-239$0.10512%+10%0.3%moderado$12,746
120-139$0.0253%+9%0.1%cautela (no operable)$63,738
lleva 0 · proyeccion 91.4 ± 48.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0039%+3681%2.3%cautela (no operable)$1,208
165-189$0.0024%+2830%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,375
115-139$0.01116%+1390%3.7%cautela (no operable)$1,081
90-114$0.05520%+262%3.8%cautela (no operable)$1,111
lleva 152 · proyeccion 201.5 ± 35.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240-259$0.0049%+2508%2.2%cautela (no operable)$104,990
260-279$0.0024%+2392%0.9%cautela (no operable)$105,186
140-159$0.0048%+1637%1.9%cautela (no operable)$198,602
220-239$0.01516%+957%3.8%cautela (no operable)$95,601
280-299$0.0021%+650%0.2%cautela (no operable)$98,621
200-219$0.12522%+73%2.6%moderado$107,490
lleva 36 · proyeccion 47.3 ± 17.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
65-89$0.00515%+2619%3.6%cautela (no operable)$92,065
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.9x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.7 ± 45.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00611%+1762%2.7%cautela (no operable)$120
100-119$0.0067%+1019%1.5%cautela (no operable)$120
80-99$0.0053%+506%0.7%cautela (no operable)$149
140-159$0.05515%+179%2.6%cautela (no operable)$268
60-79$0.0061%+128%0.2%cautela (no operable)$169
lleva 49 · proyeccion 153.3 ± 35.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.00311%+3407%2.6%cautela (no operable)$453
120-139$0.00718%+2455%4.3%cautela (no operable)$656
140-159$0.04322%+411%4.7%cautela (no operable)$1,250
lleva 134 · proyeccion 162.7 ± 18.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0069%+1358%2.2%cautela (no operable)$3,168
140-159$0.05033%+559%7.3%cautela (no operable)$6,933
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 171.5 ± 49.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0020%+90%0.0%cautela (no operable)$567
40-59$0.0041%+82%0.1%cautela (no operable)$331
200+$0.21529%+33%2.3%escalable$1,147
lleva 62 · proyeccion 153.0 ± 36.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0055%+783%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,092
60-79$0.0042%+365%0.3%cautela (no operable)$2,117
100-119$0.03611%+199%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,710
140-159$0.18022%+20%1.1%moderado$959
120-139$0.16518%+7%0.4%moderado$1,531
lleva 156 · proyeccion 188.2 ± 21.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0078%+1038%1.8%cautela (no operable)$3,903
160-179$0.19525%+29%1.8%moderado$3,709
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 131.7 ± 27.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.17023%+38%1.9%moderado$216
60-79$0.0212%+10%0.1%cautela (no operable)$511
lleva 42 · proyeccion 118.6 ± 20.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.09115%+62%1.6%cautela (no operable)$417
100-119$0.22034%+55%3.9%escalable$348
60-79$0.0183%+50%0.2%cautela (no operable)$124
120-139$0.28533%+15%1.5%escalable$412
lleva 136 · proyeccion 156.5 ± 10.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0026%+3601%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,089
140-159$0.52056%+7%1.9%escalable$2,835
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 100.8 ± 17.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12039%+222%7.5%moderado$74
120-139$0.04913%+164%2.1%cautela (no operable)$40
lleva 20 · proyeccion 79.6 ± 13.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.39543%+10%1.6%escalable$696
lleva 50 · proyeccion 69.1 ± 7.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 46.8 ± 11.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.07914%+73%1.6%cautela (no operable)$811
40-59$0.40060%+49%8.1%escalable$1,395
<20$0.0091%+8%0.0%cautela (no operable)$635
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.2 ± 8.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+170%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,463
40-59$0.42048%+14%2.5%escalable$4,187
lleva 29 · proyeccion 35.8 ± 4.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.0 ± 12.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01115%+1233%3.4%cautela (no operable)$20
20-39$0.31558%+85%9.8%escalable$792
lleva 0 · proyeccion 16.0 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.08535%+309%7.2%cautela (no operable)$847
lleva 6 · proyeccion 10.3 ± 4.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.9 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+218%0.3%cautela (no operable)$12
10-14$0.10518%+68%2.0%moderado$0
15-19$0.09514%+46%1.2%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0839%+7%0.1%cautela (no operable)$11
25-29$0.0435%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.8 ± 8.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03917%+328%3.3%cautela (no operable)$319
15-19$0.0288%+185%1.3%cautela (no operable)$128
20-24$0.0233%+13%0.1%cautela (no operable)$117
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.4 ± 4.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0133%+118%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,972
5-9$0.10520%+94%2.8%moderado$5,197