Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.155 36% +134% 6.2% moderado $1,050 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.135 29% +118% 4.6% moderado $2,359 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.305 54% +77% 8.5% escalable $2,199 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.135 24% +75% 2.9% moderado $103,816 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.275 44% +59% 5.6% escalable $1,052 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.145 21% +42% 1.8% moderado $4,361 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.395 54% +37% 6.0% escalable $3,339 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.305 41% +35% 3.8% escalable $4,155 Ted Cruz 180-199 $0.286 35% +24% 2.4% escalable $373 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.205 24% +19% 1.2% escalable $584 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 40-59 $0.155 18% +15% 0.7% moderado $193 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.275 30% +10% 1.0% escalable $625
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,361 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 347 · proyeccion 991.5 ± 128.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 48% +692% 11.0% cautela (no operable) $6,478 960-999 $0.022 12% +448% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $9,396 920-959 $0.053 11% +115% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,524
lleva 10 · proyeccion 248.1 ± 78.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 6% +3859% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $45,695 300-319 $0.004 8% +2042% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $14,875 280-299 $0.006 9% +1264% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $15,839 260-279 $0.018 10% +461% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,660 80-99 $0.003 1% +423% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $45,672 240-259 $0.033 10% +214% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $3,936 220-239 $0.085 10% +16% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $4,448
lleva 109 · proyeccion 221.3 ± 53.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 4% +2485% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $50,697 280-299 $0.004 7% +1798% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $53,183 260-279 $0.006 10% +1426% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $53,724 120-139 $0.004 3% +770% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $110,689 240-259 $0.022 13% +473% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $41,439 220-239 $0.075 15% +95% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $26,768 140-159 $0.057 6% +8% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $88,355
lleva 57 · proyeccion 59.2 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 65-89 $0.135 24% +75% 2.9% moderado $103,816
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,527 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 23 · proyeccion 151.8 ± 38.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 21% +4019% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $588 120-139 $0.005 17% +3396% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $513 100-119 $0.005 11% +2172% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $551 80-99 $0.004 6% +1312% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $747 60-79 $0.004 2% +438% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $781 160-179 $0.052 19% +254% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $936
lleva 129 · proyeccion 181.2 ± 24.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.013 29% +2188% 6.9% cautela (no operable) $4,381
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,255 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 47 · proyeccion 170.8 ± 42.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 0% +108% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $4,166 120-139 $0.095 12% +23% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $697 160-179 $0.175 19% +8% 0.4% moderado $1,511
lleva 126 · proyeccion 190.2 ± 30.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.007 4% +428% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,781 160-179 $0.145 21% +42% 1.8% moderado $4,361
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,655 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 39 · proyeccion 137.4 ± 24.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.275 30% +10% 1.0% escalable $625
lleva 136 · proyeccion 176.6 ± 15.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.050 13% +157% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $2,038 160-179 $0.275 44% +59% 5.6% escalable $1,052 120-139 $0.005 1% +58% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $972 180-199 $0.286 35% +24% 2.4% escalable $373
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,701 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 76.9 ± 15.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.019 7% +246% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $479 80-99 $0.155 36% +134% 6.2% moderado $1,050 20-39 $0.005 1% +37% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $271
lleva 37 · proyeccion 68.7 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.085 14% +67% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,229 40-59 $0.155 18% +15% 0.7% moderado $193
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 833 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 37.6 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.009 1% +47% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,444 40-59 $0.305 41% +35% 3.8% escalable $4,155 <20 $0.025 3% +34% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,240
lleva 20 · proyeccion 35.4 ± 6.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 460 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 21.6 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.009 4% +313% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.305 54% +77% 8.5% escalable $2,199
lleva 12 · proyeccion 20.2 ± 6.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.395 54% +37% 6.0% escalable $3,339
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.5 ± 7.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 9% +1670% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 3% +494% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $180 10-14 $0.070 18% +155% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $372 25-29 $0.005 1% +35% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $130 5-9 $0.205 24% +19% 1.2% escalable $584
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.007 9% +1158% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $1,081 15-19 $0.004 1% +246% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $897 5-9 $0.135 29% +118% 4.6% moderado $2,359
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.