Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.115 69% +501% 16.3% moderado $4,581 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.250 58% +132% 11.0% escalable $1,186 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.125 26% +107% 3.8% moderado $74 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.185 32% +75% 4.3% moderado $391 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.335 58% +72% 9.1% escalable $2,979 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.155 23% +46% 2.1% moderado $4,912 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.335 47% +40% 5.1% escalable $3,732 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.275 37% +34% 3.2% escalable $443 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.365 46% +25% 3.6% escalable $849 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.200 24% +22% 1.4% escalable $749 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.175 20% +16% 0.9% moderado $1,560 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.405 45% +11% 1.9% escalable $247
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,235 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 227 · proyeccion 1072.9 ± 147.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.115 69% +501% 16.3% moderado $4,581 960-999 $0.037 9% +136% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $3,788 920-959 $0.067 7% +8% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,297
lleva 0 · proyeccion 310.2 ± 89.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 5% +3110% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $7,958 420-439 $0.002 4% +2340% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $13,072 380-399 $0.003 6% +2310% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $3,051 440-459 $0.002 3% +1663% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $10,715 360-379 $0.004 7% +1494% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $2,203 340-359 $0.005 8% +1376% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,204 500+ $0.002 2% +1018% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $22,924 320-339 $0.009 9% +928% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,142 300-319 $0.018 9% +383% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,921 280-299 $0.025 9% +255% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $6,828 80-99 $0.003 0% +68% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $16,593 260-279 $0.050 8% +61% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,052
lleva 0 · proyeccion 199.3 ± 71.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240+ $0.003 29% +11367% 7.1% cautela (no operable) $112 190-214 $0.004 14% +3869% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $18 165-189 $0.004 13% +3685% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $541 215-239 $0.004 13% +3587% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $18 140-164 $0.004 11% +3096% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $541 115-139 $0.011 8% +697% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $540 90-114 $0.045 6% +23% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $49
lleva 75 · proyeccion 233.0 ± 63.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 4% +2557% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $45,320 300-319 $0.003 6% +1932% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $40,830 340-359 $0.002 2% +1475% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $49,369 280-299 $0.006 8% +1200% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $34,217 260-279 $0.013 11% +686% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $22,682 100-119 $0.004 2% +327% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $70,506 240-259 $0.045 12% +169% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $18,497 220-239 $0.095 12% +31% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $18,159 120-139 $0.032 3% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $73,324
lleva 0 · proyeccion 73.3 ± 43.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.004 11% +2588% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $2,840 90-114 $0.013 18% +1368% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $3,303 65-89 $0.155 23% +46% 2.1% moderado $4,912
lleva 159 · proyeccion 190.5 ± 28.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.007 11% +1380% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $119,463 240-259 $0.003 3% +1277% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $141,967 200-219 $0.085 22% +161% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $136,498
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,354 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.9x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 161.5 ± 43.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.007 14% +1885% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $120 100-119 $0.006 9% +1407% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $120 80-99 $0.005 5% +772% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $149 140-159 $0.049 17% +259% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $348 60-79 $0.006 2% +246% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $169 40-59 $0.005 1% +46% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $987
lleva 69 · proyeccion 162.1 ± 33.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 7% +2240% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $461 140-159 $0.049 22% +349% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $1,330 120-139 $0.052 15% +185% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $729
lleva 154 · proyeccion 171.5 ± 14.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.017 19% +1012% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $7,969 200+ $0.013 3% +112% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $12,030
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,099 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.43x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 161.0 ± 48.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.003 1% +370% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $339 20-39 $0.002 0% +180% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $687 60-79 $0.019 3% +43% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $331 80-99 $0.045 6% +24% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $973 200+ $0.200 21% +6% 0.4% escalable $1,157
lleva 66 · proyeccion 146.7 ± 34.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.009 6% +593% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,623 60-79 $0.004 2% +448% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $2,457 100-119 $0.056 13% +131% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,851 120-139 $0.175 20% +16% 0.9% moderado $1,560
lleva 160 · proyeccion 181.8 ± 17.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,496 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 123.2 ± 26.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.021 4% +89% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $511 140-159 $0.170 18% +8% 0.4% moderado $216
lleva 54 · proyeccion 122.1 ± 19.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.185 32% +75% 4.3% moderado $391 80-99 $0.070 11% +55% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $435 120-139 $0.275 37% +34% 3.2% escalable $443
lleva 148 · proyeccion 160.0 ± 8.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.005 1% +51% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,993 140-159 $0.335 47% +40% 5.1% escalable $3,732
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,654 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.8 ± 16.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.125 26% +107% 3.8% moderado $74 120-139 $0.025 4% +68% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $90 80-99 $0.405 45% +11% 1.9% escalable $247
lleva 30 · proyeccion 79.9 ± 12.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.365 46% +25% 3.6% escalable $849 100-119 $0.045 6% +24% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $570
lleva 60 · proyeccion 69.3 ± 5.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 809 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 44.5 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.335 58% +72% 9.1% escalable $2,979 60-79 $0.085 9% +11% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $811
lleva 16 · proyeccion 38.9 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +96% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,660 40-59 $0.425 47% +9% 1.7% escalable $4,357
lleva 31 · proyeccion 35.5 ± 3.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.085 14% +59% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5,695
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 26.2 ± 11.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 13% +1875% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $354 20-39 $0.250 58% +132% 11.0% escalable $1,186
lleva 0 · proyeccion 15.2 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.045 31% +595% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $918
lleva 6 · proyeccion 9.5 ± 4.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.4 ± 10.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 2% +158% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $12 15-19 $0.055 14% +146% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $0 20-24 $0.035 8% +132% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $12 10-14 $0.090 18% +98% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.029 16% +436% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $470 15-19 $0.029 7% +130% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $279 20-24 $0.011 2% +60% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $275 5-9 $0.200 24% +22% 1.4% escalable $749
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.9 ± 3.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.002 1% +181% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $3,467 5-9 $0.060 14% +130% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $5,657
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.