Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.160 28% +74% 3.5% moderado $6,426 The White House 140-159 $0.177 28% +60% 3.2% moderado $3,242 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.315 42% +35% 4.0% escalable $1,929 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.455 61% +35% 7.3% escalable $2,992
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,421 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.66x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 420 · proyeccion 937.4 ± 115.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.018 29% +1538% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $7,518 960-999 $0.015 13% +732% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $11,321 920-959 $0.024 14% +474% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $5,844 880-919 $0.070 13% +87% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $5,646
lleva 83 · proyeccion 197.1 ± 54.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.002 9% +6052% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $70,229 220-239 $0.005 12% +2133% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $51,703 80-99 $0.002 2% +1283% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $199,601 200-219 $0.025 14% +460% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $49,815 100-119 $0.019 4% +106% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $161,084 180-199 $0.085 15% +71% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $68,747
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,587 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 86 · proyeccion 152.2 ± 27.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.007 9% +1177% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $1,665 120-139 $0.053 21% +284% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $1,734 140-159 $0.177 28% +60% 3.2% moderado $3,242
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 114.9 ± 27.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 28% +11070% 6.9% cautela (no operable) $2,464 120-139 $0.003 25% +8191% 6.2% cautela (no operable) $3,421 80-99 $0.004 19% +5287% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $2,467 140-159 $0.018 13% +620% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $2,562
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,694 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 79 · proyeccion 131.3 ± 17.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.017 3% +105% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $461 120-139 $0.315 42% +35% 4.0% escalable $1,929
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,726 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.23x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 30 · proyeccion 65.2 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.032 9% +186% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,301 60-79 $0.455 61% +35% 7.3% escalable $2,992
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 848 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 19 · proyeccion 35.5 ± 6.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.160 28% +74% 3.5% moderado $6,426
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 464 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 6 · proyeccion 17.1 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.044 37% +752% 8.7% cautela (no operable) $2,663
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 6.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.040 27% +566% 5.9% cautela (no operable) $1,067 15-19 $0.004 3% +466% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $566 10-14 $0.025 11% +359% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $674
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).