CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-13 20:57 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk180-199$0.14527%+84%3.5%moderado$208,149
Ted Cruz160-179$0.26047%+81%7.1%escalable$2,927
The White House180-199$0.23542%+78%6.0%escalable$11,815
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.31556%+78%9.0%escalable$3,753
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.11519%+65%2.1%moderado$325
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.35557%+62%8.5%escalable$1,223
Ted Cruz140-159$0.26540%+49%4.4%escalable$1,045
Ted Cruz120-139$0.19528%+44%2.7%moderado$369
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.31545%+44%5.0%escalable$571
Ted Cruz120-139$0.23029%+27%2.0%escalable$222
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.51565%+26%6.8%escalable$2,605
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.28035%+25%2.5%escalable$5,393
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.71x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 304 · proyeccion 1021.0 ± 135.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.05056%+1026%13.5%cautela (no operable)$5,355
960-999$0.01911%+473%2.4%cautela (no operable)$8,638
920-959$0.05410%+80%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,043
lleva 0 · proyeccion 309.8 ± 89.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0025%+3096%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,609
360-379$0.0037%+2756%1.7%cautela (no operable)$3,308
380-399$0.0046%+1614%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,680
320-339$0.0059%+1483%2.0%cautela (no operable)$5,118
340-359$0.0058%+1370%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,959
500+$0.0022%+1019%0.4%cautela (no operable)$18,278
300-319$0.0119%+750%2.0%cautela (no operable)$7,675
280-299$0.0219%+324%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,061
260-279$0.0458%+79%0.9%cautela (no operable)$1,544
80-99$0.0030%+72%0.0%cautela (no operable)$21,558
lleva 66 · proyeccion 250.0 ± 68.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0026%+3869%1.4%cautela (no operable)$16,530
340-359$0.0024%+2625%1.0%cautela (no operable)$20,265
300-319$0.0048%+2177%1.9%cautela (no operable)$29,886
360-379$0.0023%+1621%0.6%cautela (no operable)$23,238
280-299$0.00610%+1535%2.3%cautela (no operable)$25,452
260-279$0.01111%+866%2.5%cautela (no operable)$20,148
100-119$0.0031%+483%0.3%cautela (no operable)$50,708
80-99$0.0021%+416%0.2%cautela (no operable)$50,881
240-259$0.03812%+200%2.0%cautela (no operable)$16,540
120-139$0.0133%+102%0.3%cautela (no operable)$50,501
220-239$0.09511%+16%0.4%cautela (no operable)$10,306
lleva 14 · proyeccion 87.9 ± 43.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0028%+5151%1.9%cautela (no operable)$11,328
165-189$0.0023%+1868%0.7%cautela (no operable)$9,806
115-139$0.00915%+1695%3.6%cautela (no operable)$14,794
90-114$0.04821%+352%4.4%cautela (no operable)$23,786
<40$0.10511%+7%0.2%moderado$24,175
lleva 152 · proyeccion 184.6 ± 28.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
220-239$0.0028%+5564%2.1%cautela (no operable)$171,627
200-219$0.01819%+952%4.4%cautela (no operable)$183,061
180-199$0.14527%+84%3.5%moderado$208,149
140-159$0.09513%+40%1.1%cautela (no operable)$290,874
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.38x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 160.6 ± 42.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0059%+1567%2.2%cautela (no operable)$180
120-139$0.01114%+1197%3.3%cautela (no operable)$154
80-99$0.0055%+765%1.1%cautela (no operable)$296
140-159$0.02518%+630%4.0%cautela (no operable)$150
60-79$0.0052%+262%0.4%cautela (no operable)$329
160-179$0.09518%+91%2.4%cautela (no operable)$286
lleva 88 · proyeccion 172.1 ± 30.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00720%+2695%4.8%cautela (no operable)$2,607
160-179$0.01025%+2425%6.1%cautela (no operable)$2,875
lleva 185 · proyeccion 200.3 ± 13.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.23542%+78%6.0%escalable$11,815
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.4%Sobre-dispersion: 14.31x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 153.3 ± 46.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0022%+902%0.3%cautela (no operable)$509
60-79$0.0063%+437%0.7%cautela (no operable)$100
80-99$0.0357%+96%0.9%cautela (no operable)$232
120-139$0.13515%+10%0.4%moderado$103
100-119$0.10011%+10%0.3%moderado$420
20-39$0.0051%+8%0.0%cautela (no operable)$281
lleva 59 · proyeccion 153.0 ± 36.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0032%+472%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,887
80-99$0.0125%+315%1.0%cautela (no operable)$1,648
100-119$0.03511%+214%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,361
120-139$0.06518%+171%3.0%cautela (no operable)$1,093
lleva 153 · proyeccion 166.7 ± 14.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.04028%+596%6.2%cautela (no operable)$3,401
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.47x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 123.7 ± 26.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0054%+657%0.8%cautela (no operable)$18
120-139$0.23029%+27%2.0%escalable$222
40-59$0.0051%+24%0.0%cautela (no operable)$88
lleva 80 · proyeccion 146.3 ± 19.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.26540%+49%4.4%escalable$1,045
120-139$0.19528%+44%2.7%moderado$369
100-119$0.0627%+16%0.3%cautela (no operable)$553
lleva 148 · proyeccion 159.0 ± 7.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.26047%+81%7.1%escalable$2,927
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.0 ± 16.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0044%+708%0.8%cautela (no operable)$271
100-119$0.05625%+338%5.0%cautela (no operable)$452
80-99$0.31545%+44%5.0%escalable$571
lleva 28 · proyeccion 77.4 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.33040%+20%2.5%escalable$891
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.7 ± 5.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0172%+9%0.0%cautela (no operable)$2,044
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 43.6 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.31556%+78%9.0%escalable$3,753
lleva 11 · proyeccion 36.3 ± 8.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.28035%+25%2.5%escalable$5,393
lleva 30 · proyeccion 33.8 ± 3.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0254%+65%0.4%cautela (no operable)$7,003
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.9 ± 11.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01110%+882%2.3%cautela (no operable)$256
20-39$0.35557%+62%8.5%escalable$1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 23.4 ± 8.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.51565%+26%6.8%escalable$2,605
lleva 10 · proyeccion 12.9 ± 4.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0035%+1851%1.2%cautela (no operable)$1,138
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.0 ± 9.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.05013%+167%2.2%cautela (no operable)$40
10-14$0.11519%+65%2.1%moderado$325
20-24$0.0537%+34%0.5%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.7 ± 7.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03119%+505%4.0%cautela (no operable)$429
20-24$0.0052%+395%0.5%cautela (no operable)$283
15-19$0.0189%+374%1.7%cautela (no operable)$274
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.9 ± 3.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.07428%+281%5.7%cautela (no operable)$1,440