CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-29 21:17 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.20059%+193%12.1%escalable$73
Elon Musk1000+$0.355100%+182%25.0%escalable$1,108
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.29565%+121%12.7%escalable$154
CZ (Binance)40-59$0.10522%+105%3.1%moderado$60
Ted Cruz140-159$0.19540%+104%6.3%moderado$1,704
The White House200+$0.22546%+103%7.5%escalable$24
Elon Musk65-89$0.14024%+72%2.9%moderado$15,476
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.16527%+62%3.1%moderado$352
Ted Cruz120-139$0.16527%+61%3.0%moderado$179
Donald Trump160-179$0.11518%+60%2.0%moderado$597
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.15524%+57%2.6%moderado$1,196
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.20026%+30%1.9%escalable$75
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2478.1 ± 252.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.355100%+182%25.0%escalable$1,108
lleva 0 · proyeccion 375.0 ± 98.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00210%+6700%2.5%cautela (no operable)$7,237
420-439$0.0027%+4543%1.7%cautela (no operable)$512
400-419$0.0038%+2955%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,333
380-399$0.0048%+2196%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,627
360-379$0.0078%+982%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,538
340-359$0.0138%+528%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,752
320-339$0.0177%+342%1.4%cautela (no operable)$638
300-319$0.0217%+217%1.1%cautela (no operable)$353
280-299$0.0286%+102%0.7%cautela (no operable)$406
lleva 37 · proyeccion 263.4 ± 76.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0034%+1491%0.9%cautela (no operable)$15,331
340-359$0.0046%+1283%1.3%cautela (no operable)$16,399
380-399$0.0023%+1236%0.6%cautela (no operable)$10,883
400-419$0.0022%+1017%0.4%cautela (no operable)$15,767
320-339$0.0067%+1005%1.6%cautela (no operable)$16,026
300-319$0.0099%+816%2.0%cautela (no operable)$10,813
280-299$0.02010%+393%2.0%cautela (no operable)$6,160
260-279$0.03610%+189%1.8%cautela (no operable)$6,937
80-99$0.0031%+161%0.1%cautela (no operable)$33,476
240-259$0.06510%+58%1.0%cautela (no operable)$5,105
lleva 0 · proyeccion 142.4 ± 60.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00314%+4547%3.4%cautela (no operable)$440
140-164$0.00416%+3498%4.0%cautela (no operable)$25
215-239$0.0036%+2391%1.5%cautela (no operable)$8
190-214$0.00510%+1928%2.4%cautela (no operable)$8
115-139$0.01116%+1412%3.8%cautela (no operable)$87
240+$0.0055%+978%1.2%cautela (no operable)$8
90-114$0.05513%+139%2.0%cautela (no operable)$37
lleva 94 · proyeccion 194.5 ± 50.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0055%+868%1.2%cautela (no operable)$38,483
280-299$0.0043%+693%0.6%cautela (no operable)$35,801
240-259$0.0139%+549%1.9%cautela (no operable)$36,452
300-319$0.0031%+397%0.2%cautela (no operable)$36,072
100-119$0.0114%+272%0.7%cautela (no operable)$108,213
220-239$0.03512%+248%2.3%cautela (no operable)$39,282
320-339$0.0030%+91%0.1%cautela (no operable)$34,720
200-219$0.08515%+76%1.8%cautela (no operable)$34,808
lleva 817 · proyeccion 896.7 ± 45.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
960-999$0.0097%+735%1.6%cautela (no operable)$34,022
920-959$0.03222%+614%5.0%cautela (no operable)$28,871
800-839$0.0409%+120%1.2%cautela (no operable)$84,973
1000+$0.0081%+44%0.1%cautela (no operable)$25,622
880-919$0.27534%+24%2.3%escalable$27,179
lleva 8 · proyeccion 71.6 ± 40.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.01110%+831%2.2%cautela (no operable)$31,376
140-164$0.0044%+791%0.8%cautela (no operable)$8,359
90-114$0.03318%+469%3.9%cautela (no operable)$18,781
165-189$0.0041%+156%0.1%cautela (no operable)$9,350
65-89$0.14024%+72%2.9%moderado$15,476
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9%Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 194.7 ± 44.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.22546%+103%7.5%escalable$24
120-139$0.0336%+92%0.8%cautela (no operable)$8
140-159$0.06511%+65%1.1%cautela (no operable)$12
lleva 34 · proyeccion 157.7 ± 35.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0039%+2919%2.2%cautela (no operable)$141
120-139$0.02616%+514%3.5%cautela (no operable)$239
80-99$0.0114%+237%0.7%cautela (no operable)$120
140-159$0.07322%+193%3.8%cautela (no operable)$254
60-79$0.0051%+103%0.1%cautela (no operable)$186
lleva 112 · proyeccion 158.7 ± 21.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00515%+2976%3.7%cautela (no operable)$2,061
140-159$0.07132%+354%6.8%cautela (no operable)$3,323
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 200.7 ± 54.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0052%+236%0.3%cautela (no operable)$147
120-139$0.0296%+112%0.8%cautela (no operable)$269
60-79$0.0051%+50%0.1%cautela (no operable)$161
100-119$0.0294%+23%0.2%cautela (no operable)$140
160-179$0.10512%+18%0.5%moderado$289
lleva 42 · proyeccion 160.2 ± 41.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00515%+2541%3.5%cautela (no operable)$393
100-119$0.0059%+1572%2.2%cautela (no operable)$290
80-99$0.0065%+675%1.0%cautela (no operable)$181
60-79$0.0032%+525%0.4%cautela (no operable)$193
140-159$0.03318%+455%3.9%cautela (no operable)$413
40-59$0.0031%+102%0.1%cautela (no operable)$732
160-179$0.11518%+60%2.0%moderado$597
180-199$0.14015%+6%0.2%moderado$1,055
lleva 157 · proyeccion 213.2 ± 28.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.0059%+1699%2.1%cautela (no operable)$2,631
180-199$0.06520%+202%3.5%cautela (no operable)$3,309
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6%Sobre-dispersion: 7.14x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 155.1 ± 33.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 19 · proyeccion 117.4 ± 26.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.00517%+3371%4.2%cautela (no operable)$178
100-119$0.04628%+506%6.2%cautela (no operable)$130
60-79$0.0266%+139%0.9%cautela (no operable)$115
120-139$0.16527%+61%3.0%moderado$179
lleva 121 · proyeccion 158.8 ± 16.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.19540%+104%6.3%moderado$1,704
120-139$0.06011%+86%1.4%cautela (no operable)$808
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.8 ± 29.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.20026%+30%1.9%escalable$75
140-159$0.13515%+9%0.3%moderado$0
lleva 14 · proyeccion 87.1 ± 23.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.07522%+187%3.8%cautela (no operable)$464
40-59$0.05710%+69%1.1%cautela (no operable)$243
20-39$0.0112%+56%0.2%cautela (no operable)$140
lleva 97 · proyeccion 128.8 ± 15.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0053%+432%0.5%cautela (no operable)$887
100-119$0.15524%+57%2.6%moderado$1,196
140-159$0.19822%+11%0.7%moderado$723
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.7 ± 12.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.00525%+4417%6.1%cautela (no operable)$67
40-59$0.20059%+193%12.1%escalable$73
80-99$0.0051%+90%0.1%cautela (no operable)$67
lleva 3 · proyeccion 33.8 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0066%+923%1.4%cautela (no operable)$181
40-59$0.16527%+62%3.1%moderado$352
lleva 23 · proyeccion 35.7 ± 6.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.07526%+246%5.0%cautela (no operable)$1,894
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.1 ± 12.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.10522%+105%3.1%moderado$60
60-79$0.0061%+37%0.1%cautela (no operable)$60
lleva 14 · proyeccion 33.3 ± 9.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.29565%+121%12.7%escalable$154
lleva 34 · proyeccion 41.4 ± 6.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.31538%+20%2.3%escalable$4,320
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1%Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.6 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0408%+109%1.1%cautela (no operable)$0
5-9$0.17019%+12%0.6%moderado$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.05024%+389%5.1%cautela (no operable)$677
20-24$0.0062%+306%0.5%cautela (no operable)$251
15-19$0.0208%+293%1.5%cautela (no operable)$225
10-14$0.07917%+116%2.5%cautela (no operable)$361
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 4.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0054%+670%0.9%cautela (no operable)$1,485
5-9$0.05123%+351%4.7%cautela (no operable)$1,016