CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-12 03:12 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.19553%+170%10.3%moderado$704
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.12031%+156%5.3%moderado$1,526
Donald Trump200+$0.18536%+96%5.4%moderado$421
Elon Musk40-64$0.21537%+71%4.9%escalable$40,132
The White House200+$0.35554%+52%7.2%escalable$20
Donald Trump100-119$0.10214%+39%1.1%moderado$1,209
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.18025%+38%2.1%moderado$1,202
Ali Khamenei15-19$0.10715%+38%1.1%moderado$20
Ted Cruz120-139$0.27036%+35%3.2%escalable$1,769
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.31041%+32%3.6%escalable$5,007
Elon Musk180-199$0.11514%+24%0.8%moderado$64,732
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$84
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 248 · proyeccion 1043.7 ± 142.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06562%+856%14.9%cautela (no operable)$4,775
960-999$0.01910%+430%2.1%cautela (no operable)$4,488
920-959$0.0409%+114%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,663
880-919$0.0507%+34%0.5%cautela (no operable)$2,814
lleva 0 · proyeccion 387.8 ± 99.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00213%+8644%3.2%cautela (no operable)$6,971
420-439$0.0027%+4783%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,253
440-459$0.0027%+4302%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,868
380-399$0.0038%+3097%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
400-419$0.0038%+3022%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
360-379$0.0058%+1329%1.8%cautela (no operable)$892
340-359$0.0057%+1250%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,310
320-339$0.0117%+542%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,639
300-319$0.0136%+335%1.1%cautela (no operable)$2,315
280-299$0.0225%+124%0.7%cautela (no operable)$4,358
lleva 10 · proyeccion 271.2 ± 81.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0025%+3064%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,544
340-359$0.0026%+2985%1.5%cautela (no operable)$8,476
320-339$0.0048%+2060%1.8%cautela (no operable)$8,180
300-319$0.0069%+1243%2.0%cautela (no operable)$11,303
440-459$0.0021%+511%0.2%cautela (no operable)$14,032
280-299$0.0179%+475%2.0%cautela (no operable)$10,641
260-279$0.03110%+214%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,055
80-99$0.0031%+178%0.1%cautela (no operable)$34,589
240-259$0.0659%+44%0.8%cautela (no operable)$4,183
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.1 ± 62.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+10515%4.0%cautela (no operable)$611
165-189$0.00215%+9648%3.6%cautela (no operable)$611
115-139$0.00915%+1543%3.5%cautela (no operable)$796
90-114$0.04412%+166%1.9%cautela (no operable)$941
lleva 96 · proyeccion 205.8 ± 53.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0027%+4793%1.8%cautela (no operable)$60,411
240-259$0.00411%+2957%2.6%cautela (no operable)$58,823
220-239$0.01314%+904%3.1%cautela (no operable)$42,431
100-119$0.0043%+551%0.6%cautela (no operable)$135,560
200-219$0.06515%+130%2.2%cautela (no operable)$39,673
180-199$0.11514%+24%0.8%moderado$64,732
lleva 21 · proyeccion 46.1 ± 25.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
65-89$0.01119%+1636%4.5%cautela (no operable)$67,959
40-64$0.21537%+71%4.9%escalable$40,132
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.55x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.5 ± 48.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0195%+158%0.8%cautela (no operable)$22
80-99$0.0061%+72%0.1%cautela (no operable)$102
200+$0.35554%+52%7.2%escalable$20
140-159$0.0609%+44%0.7%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.0232%+8%0.1%cautela (no operable)$22
lleva 32 · proyeccion 160.4 ± 38.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00520%+3841%4.8%cautela (no operable)$1,078
160-179$0.05120%+291%3.9%cautela (no operable)$1,324
lleva 129 · proyeccion 188.5 ± 26.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01323%+1680%5.5%cautela (no operable)$3,731
120-139$0.0023%+1671%0.6%cautela (no operable)$1,369
140-159$0.00710%+1379%2.4%cautela (no operable)$2,721
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 181.5 ± 51.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0061%+124%0.2%cautela (no operable)$80
200+$0.18536%+96%5.4%moderado$421
40-59$0.0051%+6%0.0%cautela (no operable)$322
lleva 19 · proyeccion 141.5 ± 42.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0042%+412%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,347
80-99$0.0189%+393%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,309
60-79$0.0094%+369%0.9%cautela (no operable)$497
100-119$0.10214%+39%1.1%moderado$1,209
120-139$0.15018%+20%0.9%moderado$592
lleva 113 · proyeccion 155.2 ± 24.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0056%+1141%1.4%cautela (no operable)$4,039
120-139$0.04019%+371%3.9%cautela (no operable)$2,556
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.51x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 159.7 ± 29.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 26 · proyeccion 128.8 ± 23.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.09533%+243%6.4%cautela (no operable)$83
80-99$0.0459%+100%1.2%cautela (no operable)$264
160-179$0.0508%+63%0.8%cautela (no operable)$48
60-79$0.0172%+6%0.0%cautela (no operable)$568
lleva 94 · proyeccion 141.5 ± 16.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0508%+64%0.8%cautela (no operable)$827
120-139$0.27036%+35%3.2%escalable$1,769
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.8 ± 18.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.06033%+447%7.1%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.08038%+370%8.0%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.04510%+130%1.5%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 5 · proyeccion 81.2 ± 15.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.07011%+57%1.1%cautela (no operable)$146
lleva 37 · proyeccion 72.5 ± 10.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.18025%+38%2.1%moderado$1,202
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 12.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0052%+277%0.4%cautela (no operable)$686
60-79$0.12031%+156%5.3%moderado$1,526
40-59$0.48555%+13%3.0%escalable$2,032
lleva 2 · proyeccion 37.6 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.31041%+32%3.6%escalable$5,007
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.1 ± 6.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.71075%+5%3.1%escalable$6,926
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 33.3 ± 13.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01630%+1750%7.1%cautela (no operable)$212
60-79$0.0052%+355%0.5%cautela (no operable)$158
20-39$0.19553%+170%10.3%moderado$704
lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.6 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0055%+789%1.1%cautela (no operable)$609
20-39$0.08553%+522%12.1%cautela (no operable)$1,492
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.6 ± 7.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01112%+1002%2.8%cautela (no operable)$1,012
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.10715%+38%1.1%moderado$20
10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$84
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.07518%+146%3.0%cautela (no operable)$272
20-24$0.0456%+34%0.4%cautela (no operable)$253
30-34$0.0051%+31%0.0%cautela (no operable)$253
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.06515%+130%2.2%cautela (no operable)$575
15-19$0.0284%+53%0.4%cautela (no operable)$381
5-9$0.24028%+17%1.4%escalable$1,025