Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.120 61% +406% 13.8% moderado $93 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.335 100% +198% 25.0% escalable $2,045 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.115 25% +117% 3.8% moderado $712 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.165 30% +81% 4.0% moderado $180 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 120-139 $0.115 21% +79% 2.6% moderado $41 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.120 20% +68% 2.3% moderado $1,028 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.110 18% +64% 2.0% moderado $4,709 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $51,839 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.210 33% +56% 3.7% escalable $1,438 The White House 140-159 $0.242 38% +55% 4.4% escalable $4,053 The White House 200+ $0.245 36% +47% 3.8% escalable $506 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.190 28% +46% 2.7% moderado $105
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,856 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2444.7 ± 250.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.335 100% +198% 25.0% escalable $2,045
lleva 0 · proyeccion 342.2 ± 93.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 420-439 $0.002 6% +3577% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $5,616 500+ $0.002 5% +3001% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $9,467 460-479 $0.002 3% +2158% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $5,540 380-399 $0.004 7% +2040% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $6,369 440-459 $0.003 4% +1669% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $5,994 480-499 $0.002 2% +1553% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $5,540 400-419 $0.004 7% +1544% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $6,777 360-379 $0.005 8% +1382% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,845 340-359 $0.011 8% +707% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,457 320-339 $0.015 8% +462% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $2,320 300-319 $0.026 8% +202% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,868 280-299 $0.035 7% +110% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $3,654 260-279 $0.055 6% +14% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,719
lleva 70 · proyeccion 263.7 ± 70.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.003 2% +827% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $12,309 400-419 $0.002 1% +797% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $17,092 360-379 $0.005 4% +637% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $17,328 320-339 $0.013 7% +442% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $21,202 340-359 $0.011 5% +391% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $19,823 420-439 $0.002 1% +381% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $14,827 300-319 $0.022 9% +316% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $23,362 80-99 $0.002 1% +261% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $55,125 280-299 $0.041 11% +158% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $14,823 100-119 $0.005 1% +90% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $29,358 260-279 $0.071 11% +57% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $13,254 120-139 $0.015 2% +20% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $30,752
lleva 0 · proyeccion 109.7 ± 53.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 8% +5534% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $2,144 190-214 $0.002 4% +2707% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $479 140-164 $0.009 14% +1335% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $2,211 115-139 $0.030 18% +480% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $1,681 90-114 $0.055 18% +235% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $2,829
lleva 127 · proyeccion 194.9 ± 41.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.004 4% +1026% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $46,364 240-259 $0.011 8% +611% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $50,970 280-299 $0.003 2% +507% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $42,016 120-139 $0.011 6% +441% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $118,405 220-239 $0.034 14% +303% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $57,597 200-219 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $51,839
lleva 850 · proyeccion 897.1 ± 34.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 960-999 $0.003 3% +1051% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $34,868 920-959 $0.025 22% +775% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $35,249
lleva 41 · proyeccion 72.0 ± 28.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.006 6% +854% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $48,790 90-114 $0.051 20% +298% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $58,237 65-89 $0.310 34% +9% 1.0% escalable $54,502
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,908 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9% Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x 27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 183.9 ± 43.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 4% +683% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $19 80-99 $0.005 2% +225% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $11 140-159 $0.075 13% +78% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $17 200+ $0.245 36% +47% 3.8% escalable $506 60-79 $0.005 1% +10% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $23 120-139 $0.079 8% +7% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $37
lleva 42 · proyeccion 155.2 ± 34.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.006 18% +2595% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $276 100-119 $0.011 10% +777% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $324 80-99 $0.011 4% +246% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $168 140-159 $0.097 23% +135% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $316 60-79 $0.005 1% +95% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $223
lleva 120 · proyeccion 156.1 ± 19.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 17% +1405% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $2,484 180-199 $0.050 10% +100% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $5,552 140-159 $0.242 38% +55% 4.4% escalable $4,053
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,681 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.76x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 184.7 ± 52.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.006 3% +390% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $147 120-139 $0.026 9% +230% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $269 100-119 $0.019 5% +187% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $140 60-79 $0.005 1% +149% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $161 160-179 $0.105 15% +39% 1.1% moderado $289 140-159 $0.090 12% +35% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $565 180-199 $0.135 15% +12% 0.5% moderado $395 40-59 $0.005 1% +11% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $164
lleva 62 · proyeccion 164.0 ± 38.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 14% +4504% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $555 100-119 $0.003 8% +2482% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $452 80-99 $0.003 3% +1016% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $343 140-159 $0.034 19% +467% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $623 60-79 $0.006 1% +86% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $375 160-179 $0.120 20% +68% 2.3% moderado $1,028 180-199 $0.135 16% +22% 0.9% moderado $1,349
lleva 177 · proyeccion 217.0 ± 24.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.034 17% +420% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $5,148
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,979 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6% Sobre-dispersion: 7.13x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 145.3 ± 32.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.165 22% +32% 1.6% moderado $44 180-199 $0.090 10% +9% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $24
lleva 34 · proyeccion 122.4 ± 25.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 14% +2641% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $178 100-119 $0.050 27% +446% 5.9% cautela (no operable) $139 120-139 $0.165 30% +81% 4.0% moderado $180 60-79 $0.029 4% +28% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $116
lleva 136 · proyeccion 163.8 ± 14.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.028 34% +1104% 8.0% cautela (no operable) $1,819 120-139 $0.021 4% +101% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,082
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,969 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 107.2 ± 28.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.115 21% +79% 2.6% moderado $41 140-159 $0.058 9% +62% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $20 100-119 $0.190 28% +46% 2.7% moderado $105
lleva 19 · proyeccion 82.6 ± 21.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.075 17% +131% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $586 40-59 $0.054 12% +121% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $273 20-39 $0.011 2% +100% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $176 80-99 $0.305 34% +12% 1.3% escalable $622
lleva 102 · proyeccion 124.3 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.210 33% +56% 3.7% escalable $1,438
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 900 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.5 ± 11.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 15% +2335% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $67 40-59 $0.120 61% +406% 13.8% moderado $93
lleva 5 · proyeccion 31.7 ± 8.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.015 8% +409% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $380 40-59 $0.090 18% +103% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $540
lleva 25 · proyeccion 33.5 ± 4.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.040 11% +178% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,953
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 526 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.9 ± 11.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.480 59% +24% 5.5% escalable $228
lleva 19 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.312 35% +12% 1.4% escalable $133
lleva 39 · proyeccion 44.2 ± 5.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.110 18% +64% 2.0% moderado $4,709
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.2 ± 10.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.057 18% +223% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $20 5-9 $0.090 20% +118% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $20 20-24 $0.059 8% +33% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $20
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.5 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 7% +1257% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $306 10-14 $0.013 16% +1146% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $388 20-24 $0.005 2% +267% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $278 5-9 $0.115 25% +117% 3.8% moderado $712
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.3 ± 4.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.031 19% +524% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $1,016 10-14 $0.005 2% +268% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,485
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.