CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-10 00:39 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.13573%+441%17.2%moderado$4,239
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12039%+228%7.8%moderado$74
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.13539%+186%7.2%moderado$777
Donald Trump160-179$0.10522%+105%3.1%moderado$3,020
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.32058%+81%9.6%escalable$777
Ted Cruz100-119$0.20033%+65%4.1%escalable$348
Ted Cruz120-139$0.20028%+41%2.5%escalable$0
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.43060%+39%7.3%escalable$1,350
Ted Cruz140-159$0.18025%+37%2.0%moderado$216
Donald Trump120-139$0.12516%+31%1.1%moderado$1,531
Donald Trump200+$0.24031%+31%2.4%escalable$1,103
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.35545%+27%3.7%escalable$657
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 214 · proyeccion 1091.4 ± 149.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.13573%+441%17.2%moderado$4,239
960-999$0.0698%+18%0.3%cautela (no operable)$3,782
Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 341.4 ± 93.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
420-439$0.0025%+3548%1.3%cautela (no operable)$4,079
500+$0.0025%+2915%1.1%cautela (no operable)$20,143
400-419$0.0037%+2516%1.6%cautela (no operable)$5,258
380-399$0.0047%+1767%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,266
360-379$0.0078%+986%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,083
340-359$0.0088%+962%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,175
320-339$0.0098%+790%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,528
300-319$0.0178%+388%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,034
280-299$0.0297%+148%1.1%cautela (no operable)$5,612
260-279$0.0556%+15%0.2%cautela (no operable)$511
Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 62 · proyeccion 251.0 ± 69.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0024%+2712%1.0%cautela (no operable)$40,514
300-319$0.0048%+2199%1.9%cautela (no operable)$30,851
320-339$0.0036%+1923%1.4%cautela (no operable)$41,718
280-299$0.00910%+1056%2.3%cautela (no operable)$25,262
100-119$0.0041%+318%0.3%cautela (no operable)$61,092
260-279$0.02811%+294%2.1%cautela (no operable)$13,524
120-139$0.0153%+73%0.3%cautela (no operable)$53,111
240-259$0.07511%+52%1.1%cautela (no operable)$11,082
Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 104.3 ± 51.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00313%+4933%3.1%cautela (no operable)$682
165-189$0.0027%+4720%1.8%cautela (no operable)$831
115-139$0.01417%+1143%4.1%cautela (no operable)$1,058
90-114$0.04519%+325%3.8%cautela (no operable)$622
Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 146 · proyeccion 208.4 ± 39.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0046%+1698%1.5%cautela (no operable)$88,801
280-299$0.0023%+1653%0.6%cautela (no operable)$94,663
140-159$0.0067%+948%1.6%cautela (no operable)$140,575
240-259$0.01312%+842%2.7%cautela (no operable)$89,695
220-239$0.04317%+306%3.4%cautela (no operable)$84,676
Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 100% del periodo
lleva 30 · proyeccion 54.2 ± 24.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.0037%+2718%1.7%cautela (no operable)$58,086
65-89$0.05526%+376%5.5%cautela (no operable)$59,028
<40$0.21026%+25%1.7%escalable$73,593
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 174.9 ± 45.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00611%+1675%2.5%cautela (no operable)$120
100-119$0.0066%+953%1.4%cautela (no operable)$120
80-99$0.0063%+417%0.6%cautela (no operable)$139
60-79$0.0061%+110%0.2%cautela (no operable)$169
140-159$0.08615%+74%1.7%cautela (no operable)$268
White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 49 · proyeccion 155.8 ± 35.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.00310%+3144%2.4%cautela (no operable)$453
120-139$0.00717%+2320%4.1%cautela (no operable)$656
140-159$0.04222%+424%4.6%cautela (no operable)$1,250
White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 134 · proyeccion 165.2 ± 19.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0118%+651%1.8%cautela (no operable)$2,488
140-159$0.04329%+580%6.5%cautela (no operable)$6,599
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.43x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 175.1 ± 50.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0020%+67%0.0%cautela (no operable)$567
40-59$0.0041%+61%0.1%cautela (no operable)$121
200+$0.24031%+31%2.4%escalable$1,103
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 62 · proyeccion 156.8 ± 37.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0041%+252%0.2%cautela (no operable)$917
100-119$0.03010%+215%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,660
80-99$0.0164%+165%0.7%cautela (no operable)$682
120-139$0.12516%+31%1.1%moderado$1,531
140-159$0.18521%+13%0.7%moderado$959
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 156 · proyeccion 191.9 ± 22.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0047%+1803%1.6%cautela (no operable)$3,607
160-179$0.10522%+105%3.1%moderado$3,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 134.4 ± 27.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0062%+194%0.3%cautela (no operable)$493
160-179$0.05013%+160%2.1%cautela (no operable)$0
120-139$0.20028%+41%2.5%escalable$0
140-159$0.18025%+37%2.0%moderado$216
Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 40 · proyeccion 119.3 ± 21.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.20033%+65%4.1%escalable$348
80-99$0.09114%+57%1.4%cautela (no operable)$417
60-79$0.0183%+48%0.2%cautela (no operable)$124
120-139$0.28533%+15%1.5%escalable$383
Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 134 · proyeccion 157.2 ± 11.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0026%+3816%1.4%cautela (no operable)$960
140-159$0.45052%+16%3.2%escalable$2,781
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 101.8 ± 17.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12039%+228%7.8%moderado$74
120-139$0.04914%+188%2.4%cautela (no operable)$40
Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 20 · proyeccion 80.6 ± 13.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.35545%+27%3.7%escalable$657
Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 50 · proyeccion 70.1 ± 7.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.5 ± 11.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.02715%+459%3.2%cautela (no operable)$753
40-59$0.43060%+39%7.3%escalable$1,350
NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.8 ± 8.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+140%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,463
40-59$0.43050%+17%3.2%escalable$4,187
NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 29 · proyeccion 36.4 ± 4.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.23526%+9%0.7%escalable$4,454
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.9 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01517%+1020%3.9%cautela (no operable)$20
20-39$0.32058%+81%9.6%escalable$777
CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 16.9 ± 9.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.13539%+186%7.2%moderado$777
40-59$0.0061%+54%0.1%cautela (no operable)$358
CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 6 · proyeccion 11.3 ± 5.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0206%+211%1.1%cautela (no operable)$3,138
<20$0.87192%+6%10.3%escalable$2,660
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.9 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+218%0.3%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.04514%+208%2.5%cautela (no operable)$0
10-14$0.08018%+120%2.6%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0509%+77%1.0%cautela (no operable)$11
25-29$0.0435%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$70
Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.8 ± 8.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03917%+328%3.3%cautela (no operable)$319
15-19$0.0298%+170%1.3%cautela (no operable)$128
20-24$0.0253%+6%0.0%cautela (no operable)$117
Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.4 ± 4.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0113%+159%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,952
5-9$0.08520%+140%3.2%cautela (no operable)$5,072