CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-11 00:38 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.25058%+132%11.0%escalable$1,246
The White House160-179$0.11525%+116%3.8%moderado$2,882
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12025%+108%3.7%moderado$74
The White House160-179$0.28750%+75%7.6%escalable$12,772
Elon Musk65-89$0.13524%+74%2.9%moderado$9,956
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.36555%+50%7.2%escalable$3,475
Ted Cruz120-139$0.27540%+46%4.4%escalable$565
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.19525%+26%1.6%moderado$749
Donald Trump140-159$0.20023%+14%0.8%escalable$1,369
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.38043%+12%1.9%escalable$4,364
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.40545%+12%2.0%escalable$247
Ted Cruz80-99$0.15016%+10%0.4%moderado$200
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.57x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 231 · proyeccion 1069.7 ± 146.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.08068%+755%16.4%cautela (no operable)$4,582
960-999$0.0389%+137%1.4%cautela (no operable)$4,006
920-959$0.0657%+13%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,442
lleva 0 · proyeccion 303.4 ± 88.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0024%+2825%1.1%cautela (no operable)$7,993
380-399$0.0036%+2146%1.3%cautela (no operable)$3,340
440-459$0.0022%+1430%0.5%cautela (no operable)$10,750
360-379$0.0047%+1417%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,238
320-339$0.0069%+1342%2.0%cautela (no operable)$2,197
340-359$0.0058%+1334%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,694
500+$0.0021%+765%0.3%cautela (no operable)$23,459
300-319$0.0159%+482%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,356
280-299$0.0259%+264%1.7%cautela (no operable)$7,941
260-279$0.0458%+87%1.0%cautela (no operable)$1,187
80-99$0.0040%+37%0.0%cautela (no operable)$17,975
lleva 0 · proyeccion 192.6 ± 70.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240+$0.00225%+16700%6.3%cautela (no operable)$252
190-214$0.00214%+6906%3.5%cautela (no operable)$38
165-189$0.00214%+6798%3.4%cautela (no operable)$561
215-239$0.00213%+6176%3.1%cautela (no operable)$38
140-164$0.00312%+4692%2.9%cautela (no operable)$561
115-139$0.0069%+1312%2.1%cautela (no operable)$560
90-114$0.0456%+38%0.4%cautela (no operable)$69
lleva 79 · proyeccion 230.3 ± 62.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0024%+2314%0.9%cautela (no operable)$45,340
300-319$0.0036%+2188%1.4%cautela (no operable)$40,990
280-299$0.0048%+1712%1.9%cautela (no operable)$35,266
260-279$0.01010%+949%2.4%cautela (no operable)$25,509
240-259$0.02512%+378%2.5%cautela (no operable)$20,497
100-119$0.0072%+162%0.3%cautela (no operable)$72,908
220-239$0.08513%+50%1.2%cautela (no operable)$19,403
lleva 4 · proyeccion 70.6 ± 41.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.00310%+3750%2.4%cautela (no operable)$6,702
90-114$0.01418%+1184%4.2%cautela (no operable)$9,029
65-89$0.13524%+74%2.9%moderado$9,956
lleva 163 · proyeccion 187.8 ± 25.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
220-239$0.0048%+2291%2.0%cautela (no operable)$129,846
240-259$0.0022%+1079%0.4%cautela (no operable)$152,357
200-219$0.04022%+449%4.6%cautela (no operable)$156,573
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.87x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.8 ± 42.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00416%+3464%3.9%cautela (no operable)$605
100-119$0.00511%+2137%2.7%cautela (no operable)$605
80-99$0.0056%+1157%1.4%cautela (no operable)$634
140-159$0.02619%+612%4.1%cautela (no operable)$865
60-79$0.0053%+468%0.6%cautela (no operable)$654
lleva 85 · proyeccion 169.3 ± 31.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.01721%+1108%4.8%cautela (no operable)$1,880
120-139$0.03912%+196%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,142
160-179$0.11525%+116%3.8%moderado$2,882
lleva 170 · proyeccion 178.7 ± 10.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.0092%+111%0.3%cautela (no operable)$13,580
160-179$0.28750%+75%7.6%escalable$12,772
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 153.9 ± 47.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0032%+501%0.3%cautela (no operable)$350
60-79$0.0073%+362%0.7%cautela (no operable)$342
20-39$0.0021%+264%0.1%cautela (no operable)$698
80-99$0.0457%+49%0.6%cautela (no operable)$984
lleva 87 · proyeccion 160.7 ± 32.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0042%+432%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,677
120-139$0.07515%+106%2.1%cautela (no operable)$2,050
100-119$0.0397%+87%0.9%cautela (no operable)$2,137
140-159$0.20023%+14%0.8%escalable$1,369
lleva 181 · proyeccion 195.8 ± 14.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.37540%+7%1.1%escalable$9,447
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 118.6 ± 25.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0215%+152%0.8%cautela (no operable)$511
80-99$0.15016%+10%0.4%moderado$200
lleva 63 · proyeccion 126.4 ± 18.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.08528%+230%5.3%cautela (no operable)$415
80-99$0.0407%+73%0.8%cautela (no operable)$439
120-139$0.27540%+46%4.4%escalable$565
lleva 157 · proyeccion 164.3 ± 6.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.07522%+198%4.0%cautela (no operable)$4,096
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.2 ± 16.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12025%+108%3.7%moderado$74
120-139$0.0254%+54%0.3%cautela (no operable)$90
80-99$0.40545%+12%2.0%escalable$247
lleva 30 · proyeccion 79.2 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0385%+41%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,734
100-119$0.0435%+12%0.1%cautela (no operable)$570
80-99$0.40544%+9%1.5%escalable$872
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.6 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 42.7 ± 11.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.36555%+50%7.2%escalable$3,475
lleva 17 · proyeccion 38.1 ± 7.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+97%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,660
40-59$0.38043%+12%1.9%escalable$4,364
lleva 32 · proyeccion 34.7 ± 2.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0254%+80%0.5%cautela (no operable)$5,831
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.7 ± 11.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00612%+1731%2.8%cautela (no operable)$368
20-39$0.25058%+132%11.0%escalable$1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 14.7 ± 8.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.05029%+487%6.4%cautela (no operable)$961
lleva 6 · proyeccion 9.1 ± 4.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.3 ± 10.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+153%0.2%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.05513%+145%2.1%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0358%+130%1.2%cautela (no operable)$12
10-14$0.09018%+98%2.4%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02916%+432%3.3%cautela (no operable)$470
15-19$0.0297%+125%0.9%cautela (no operable)$279
20-24$0.0122%+47%0.1%cautela (no operable)$275
5-9$0.19525%+26%1.6%moderado$749
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.8 ± 3.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.06013%+115%1.8%cautela (no operable)$5,667
10-14$0.0030%+73%0.1%cautela (no operable)$3,629