Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.370 65% +75% 11.1% escalable $4,391 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.405 47% +17% 2.9% escalable $2,092
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,470 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.59x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 478 · proyeccion 964.1 ± 111.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.013 38% +2790% 9.2% cautela (no operable) $7,638 960-999 $0.019 14% +623% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $13,258 920-959 $0.027 14% +414% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $6,752 880-919 $0.065 12% +85% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,961
lleva 141 · proyeccion 223.3 ± 45.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.003 6% +2374% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $107,197 300-319 $0.002 3% +1920% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $85,912 140-159 $0.003 5% +1835% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $171,387 260-279 $0.015 10% +575% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $112,087 240-259 $0.063 15% +133% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $128,037 160-179 $0.075 9% +17% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $128,254
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,602 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 105 · proyeccion 154.0 ± 23.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 6% +2970% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $2,008 120-139 $0.030 20% +559% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $2,280 180-199 $0.045 11% +151% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $9,040
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 95.2 ± 21.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 29% +19235% 7.2% cautela (no operable) $4,494 80-99 $0.002 34% +17071% 8.6% cautela (no operable) $4,840 120-139 $0.004 11% +3074% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $6,423
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,700 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 6.04x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 87 · proyeccion 125.2 ± 15.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 4% +697% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $530 120-139 $0.405 47% +17% 2.9% escalable $2,092
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,733 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.23x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 39 · proyeccion 64.0 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.370 65% +75% 11.1% escalable $4,391 80-99 $0.040 4% +5% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,789
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 850 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 22 · proyeccion 33.7 ± 5.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.080 16% +94% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $7,120
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 466 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.34x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 9 · proyeccion 17.0 ± 6.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.044 35% +682% 7.9% cautela (no operable) $2,962
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.0 ± 5.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.009 11% +1034% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $961 15-19 $0.004 2% +444% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $822 5-9 $0.055 27% +383% 5.6% cautela (no operable) $1,646
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).