CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.135	72%	+435%	17.0%	moderado	$4,239
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.125	39%	+215%	7.7%	moderado	$74
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.130	37%	+185%	6.9%	moderado	$798
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.120	24%	+101%	3.4%	moderado	$3,070
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.315	58%	+85%	9.7%	escalable	$792
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.190	32%	+69%	4.1%	moderado	$348
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.105	18%	+68%	2.0%	moderado	$0
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.170	24%	+44%	2.2%	moderado	$216
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.425	60%	+40%	7.4%	escalable	$1,350
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.140	17%	+24%	1.0%	moderado	$1,531
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.365	45%	+23%	3.4%	escalable	$657
Donald Trump	140-159	$0.175	21%	+23%	1.2%	moderado	$959

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,229 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 214 · proyeccion 1087.6 ± 149.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.135	72%	+435%	17.0%	moderado	$4,239
960-999	$0.068	8%	+21%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$3,782

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 337.6 ± 92.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
420-439	$0.002	5%	+3411%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$4,079
500+	$0.002	4%	+2613%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$20,321
400-419	$0.003	6%	+2445%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$5,258
380-399	$0.004	7%	+1531%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,266
360-379	$0.007	8%	+978%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,083
340-359	$0.008	8%	+963%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,175
320-339	$0.009	9%	+799%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,528
300-319	$0.017	8%	+396%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$2,146
280-299	$0.030	8%	+150%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$5,612
260-279	$0.055	7%	+19%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$511

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 62 · proyeccion 247.3 ± 68.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
340-359	$0.002	4%	+2475%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$41,226
320-339	$0.003	6%	+2174%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$41,718
300-319	$0.004	8%	+1611%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$31,593
280-299	$0.009	10%	+1028%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$26,021
260-279	$0.026	11%	+314%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$14,466
100-119	$0.004	2%	+251%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$61,735
240-259	$0.065	12%	+78%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$12,075
120-139	$0.019	3%	+38%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$54,082

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 100.6 ± 50.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.003	12%	+4605%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$682
165-189	$0.002	6%	+4163%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$831
115-139	$0.013	17%	+1211%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,061
90-114	$0.045	19%	+333%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$625

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 146 · proyeccion 204.7 ± 38.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
260-279	$0.003	5%	+1629%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$94,171
280-299	$0.002	2%	+1205%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$94,863
240-259	$0.010	11%	+960%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$91,226
140-159	$0.007	8%	+906%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$144,460
220-239	$0.036	17%	+357%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$86,003

Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 30 · proyeccion 50.5 ± 22.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
90-114	$0.003	4%	+1570%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$61,520
65-89	$0.024	23%	+863%	5.2%	cautela (no operable)	$61,022

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,354 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.9x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 173.2 ± 45.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.006	11%	+1742%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$120
100-119	$0.006	7%	+1003%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$120
80-99	$0.006	3%	+446%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$139
140-159	$0.057	15%	+167%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$268
60-79	$0.006	1%	+123%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$169

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 49 · proyeccion 153.9 ± 35.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.003	10%	+4036%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$453
120-139	$0.007	18%	+2426%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$656
140-159	$0.042	22%	+433%	4.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,250

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 134 · proyeccion 163.3 ± 18.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.004	9%	+2525%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,890
140-159	$0.019	32%	+1534%	7.6%	cautela (no operable)	$6,711

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,098 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.6 ± 49.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.002	0%	+83%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$567
40-59	$0.004	1%	+75%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$321
200+	$0.245	29%	+20%	1.6%	escalable	$1,136

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 62 · proyeccion 154.1 ± 36.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.005	5%	+750%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,082
60-79	$0.004	2%	+346%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,117
100-119	$0.030	10%	+247%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,710
120-139	$0.140	17%	+24%	1.0%	moderado	$1,531
140-159	$0.175	21%	+23%	1.2%	moderado	$959

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 156 · proyeccion 189.2 ± 21.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.003	8%	+2928%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$3,637
160-179	$0.120	24%	+101%	3.4%	moderado	$3,070

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,493 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 133.8 ± 27.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.170	24%	+44%	2.2%	moderado	$216

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 42 · proyeccion 120.7 ± 20.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.190	32%	+69%	4.1%	moderado	$348
80-99	$0.091	13%	+43%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$417
60-79	$0.018	2%	+26%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$124
120-139	$0.285	34%	+19%	1.9%	escalable	$402

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 136 · proyeccion 158.6 ± 11.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.002	4%	+2824%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$962
140-159	$0.420	49%	+16%	2.9%	escalable	$2,794

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,652 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 101.8 ± 17.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.125	39%	+215%	7.7%	moderado	$74
120-139	$0.049	14%	+188%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$40

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 20 · proyeccion 80.6 ± 13.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.365	45%	+23%	3.4%	escalable	$657

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 50 · proyeccion 70.1 ± 7.8

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 809 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.0 ± 11.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.027	14%	+422%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$753
40-59	$0.425	60%	+40%	7.4%	escalable	$1,350

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.4 ± 8.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.004	1%	+160%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,463
40-59	$0.430	49%	+13%	2.4%	escalable	$4,187

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 29 · proyeccion 36.0 ± 4.5

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.5 ± 12.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.013	16%	+1079%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$20
20-39	$0.315	58%	+85%	9.7%	escalable	$792

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 16.6 ± 9.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.130	37%	+185%	6.9%	moderado	$798
40-59	$0.006	1%	+28%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$379

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 10.9 ± 5.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.030	5%	+58%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$3,179

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.9 ± 10.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
30-34	$0.006	2%	+218%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$12
10-14	$0.105	18%	+68%	2.0%	moderado	$0
15-19	$0.120	14%	+16%	0.5%	moderado	$0
25-29	$0.043	5%	+6%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$70

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.8 ± 8.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.036	17%	+357%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$319
15-19	$0.030	8%	+166%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$128
20-24	$0.023	3%	+13%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$117

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.4 ± 4.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.007	3%	+263%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$2,952
5-9	$0.095	20%	+114%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$5,072