Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.165 77% +366% 18.1% moderado $3,568 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.140 42% +201% 8.2% moderado $2,174 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.155 41% +162% 7.4% moderado $24 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.225 47% +108% 7.9% escalable $777 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.120 24% +97% 3.3% moderado $4,106 Donald Trump 200+ $0.235 45% +92% 7.1% escalable $1,010 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.325 56% +74% 8.9% escalable $22 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.160 27% +67% 3.2% moderado $2,296 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.325 49% +52% 6.3% escalable $3,079 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.150 22% +45% 2.0% moderado $331 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.145 19% +33% 1.4% moderado $835 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.330 44% +33% 4.0% escalable $1,991
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,204 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 194 · proyeccion 1112.6 ± 153.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.165 77% +366% 18.1% moderado $3,568
lleva 0 · proyeccion 381.5 ± 98.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 12% +7642% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $17,252 420-439 $0.002 7% +4681% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $3,969 380-399 $0.004 8% +1687% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $355 400-419 $0.004 8% +1622% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,629 360-379 $0.007 8% +968% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $625 340-359 $0.009 8% +800% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $663 320-339 $0.011 7% +569% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,046 300-319 $0.013 6% +358% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $471 280-299 $0.026 5% +97% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $3,149
lleva 42 · proyeccion 270.6 ± 76.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.002 5% +2166% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $29,777 380-399 $0.002 3% +1986% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $33,459 340-359 $0.003 6% +1944% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $29,841 320-339 $0.005 8% +1450% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $26,883 300-319 $0.009 9% +864% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $20,684 100-119 $0.002 1% +662% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $51,461 280-299 $0.018 10% +477% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $17,594 260-279 $0.044 10% +134% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $9,584 120-139 $0.013 2% +53% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $31,179 240-259 $0.095 10% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $7,006
lleva 0 · proyeccion 143.9 ± 60.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.003 14% +4601% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $597 140-164 $0.004 16% +3497% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $582 190-214 $0.003 10% +3364% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $129 215-239 $0.005 6% +1196% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $126 115-139 $0.015 16% +947% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $80 90-114 $0.060 13% +115% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $206
lleva 126 · proyeccion 228.1 ± 51.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 4% +2853% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $73,950 320-339 $0.002 2% +1379% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $55,216 280-299 $0.005 8% +1283% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $57,404 260-279 $0.017 11% +580% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $66,464 140-159 $0.009 5% +408% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $92,689 240-259 $0.052 14% +174% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $60,996 220-239 $0.135 16% +15% 0.6% moderado $58,307
lleva 10 · proyeccion 73.9 ± 40.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 4% +2551% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $10,708 115-139 $0.006 11% +1519% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $18,559 90-114 $0.035 19% +449% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $22,676 65-89 $0.195 24% +24% 1.5% moderado $17,600
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,337 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 187.3 ± 47.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.015 8% +418% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $70 100-119 $0.011 4% +301% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $60 80-99 $0.005 2% +270% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $97 140-159 $0.037 12% +226% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $216 60-79 $0.005 1% +43% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $127 160-179 $0.135 16% +16% 0.6% moderado $387
lleva 33 · proyeccion 152.0 ± 37.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 18% +4922% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $361 100-119 $0.004 11% +3112% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $426 140-159 $0.019 21% +999% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $581
lleva 118 · proyeccion 161.4 ± 22.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 14% +2903% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $1,627 140-159 $0.042 30% +620% 6.7% cautela (no operable) $4,033
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,061 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 193.1 ± 52.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.235 45% +92% 7.1% escalable $1,010 180-199 $0.125 15% +20% 0.7% moderado $447 160-179 $0.125 14% +9% 0.3% moderado $474
lleva 30 · proyeccion 143.0 ± 40.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +844% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $563 60-79 $0.004 4% +757% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $461 80-99 $0.021 8% +285% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $588 100-119 $0.085 14% +64% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,060 20-39 $0.003 0% +36% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $5,641 140-159 $0.145 19% +33% 1.4% moderado $835
lleva 124 · proyeccion 178.2 ± 28.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 7% +495% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,993 140-159 $0.060 17% +181% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $2,669 160-179 $0.160 27% +67% 3.2% moderado $2,296
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,481 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 146.1 ± 28.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.055 20% +261% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.090 27% +203% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $0 180-199 $0.045 9% +100% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $0 120-139 $0.180 23% +30% 1.6% moderado $0 200+ $0.025 3% +19% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $40
lleva 31 · proyeccion 121.8 ± 22.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.066 13% +97% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $376 60-79 $0.018 3% +49% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $97
lleva 125 · proyeccion 159.7 ± 13.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 7% +541% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $841 140-159 $0.140 42% +201% 8.2% moderado $2,174
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,650 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.4 ± 18.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.068 28% +310% 5.7% cautela (no operable) $20 100-119 $0.155 41% +162% 7.4% moderado $24 140-159 $0.032 7% +108% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $12
lleva 18 · proyeccion 88.9 ± 14.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.150 22% +45% 2.0% moderado $331
lleva 48 · proyeccion 78.3 ± 9.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.018 3% +40% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $552 80-99 $0.330 44% +33% 4.0% escalable $1,991
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 802 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 52.4 ± 12.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.065 27% +315% 5.5% cautela (no operable) $713 40-59 $0.430 57% +32% 6.0% escalable $1,275
lleva 9 · proyeccion 39.8 ± 9.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.008 2% +101% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,140 40-59 $0.325 49% +52% 6.3% escalable $3,079
lleva 24 · proyeccion 36.4 ± 6.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.3 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.040 23% +463% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.325 56% +74% 8.9% escalable $22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.3 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 2% +341% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $187 20-39 $0.225 47% +108% 7.9% escalable $777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.7 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.055 18% +233% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $2,924
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 2% +282% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $12 20-24 $0.040 9% +139% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $10 15-19 $0.060 14% +136% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $0 25-29 $0.041 5% +25% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $70 10-14 $0.140 17% +24% 1.0% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.029 9% +215% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $83 10-14 $0.055 17% +214% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $199 20-24 $0.013 3% +174% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $82
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.027 6% +111% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $2,367 5-9 $0.120 24% +97% 3.3% moderado $4,106
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.