CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-10-09 02:56 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Ted Cruz140-159$0.14030%+113%4.6%moderado$141
The White House180-199$0.12024%+102%3.5%moderado$1,598
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.28146%+64%6.3%escalable$742
Donald Trump140-159$0.27541%+49%4.7%escalable$11,445
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.55581%+45%14.2%escalable$95
Ted Cruz140-159$0.13019%+45%1.7%moderado$10
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.43563%+44%8.5%escalable$0
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.22531%+36%2.6%escalable$818
The White House180-199$0.11916%+34%1.2%moderado$285
Elon Musk1000+$0.75596%+28%21.4%escalable$37,552
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.16520%+19%1.0%moderado$179
Ted Cruz140-159$0.38846%+18%2.8%escalable$240
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.1%Sobre-dispersion: 24.47x48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 381 · proyeccion 1265.0 ± 147.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.75596%+28%21.4%escalable$37,552
lleva 0 · proyeccion 291.3 ± 84.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0041%+168%0.1%cautela (no operable)$15,991
360-379$0.0266%+132%0.9%cautela (no operable)$11,517
80-99$0.0031%+120%0.1%cautela (no operable)$11,297
380-399$0.0245%+100%0.6%cautela (no operable)$12,695
340-359$0.0427%+77%0.8%cautela (no operable)$10,769
420-439$0.0152%+66%0.2%cautela (no operable)$16,613
400-419$0.0214%+65%0.4%cautela (no operable)$16,676
320-339$0.0529%+64%0.9%cautela (no operable)$17,460
120-139$0.0112%+44%0.1%cautela (no operable)$7,516
300-319$0.0749%+24%0.5%cautela (no operable)$8,357
440-459$0.0132%+22%0.1%cautela (no operable)$22,100
280-299$0.0879%+8%0.2%cautela (no operable)$9,197
lleva 216 · proyeccion 382.6 ± 63.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240-259$0.0031%+381%0.3%cautela (no operable)$70,991
260-279$0.0123%+119%0.4%cautela (no operable)$54,310
440-459$0.0447%+62%0.7%cautela (no operable)$63,142
280-299$0.0304%+45%0.3%cautela (no operable)$71,605
320-339$0.0659%+37%0.6%cautela (no operable)$54,254
300-319$0.0526%+24%0.3%cautela (no operable)$49,439
400-419$0.10011%+14%0.4%cautela (no operable)$48,994
340-359$0.10011%+10%0.3%cautela (no operable)$36,839
420-439$0.08910%+6%0.2%cautela (no operable)$38,197
lleva 0 · proyeccion 130.7 ± 56.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.03516%+366%3.3%cautela (no operable)$2
240+$0.0063%+353%0.5%cautela (no operable)$142
115-139$0.04517%+288%3.4%cautela (no operable)$2
165-189$0.03313%+287%2.4%cautela (no operable)$12
190-214$0.0268%+202%1.4%cautela (no operable)$12
215-239$0.0264%+62%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12
lleva 56 · proyeccion 117.6 ± 38.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-64$0.0206%+218%1.1%cautela (no operable)$32,125
140-164$0.15217%+14%0.6%moderado$23,429
115-139$0.21925%+12%0.8%escalable$19,048
65-89$0.14015%+6%0.3%moderado$21,898
lleva 320 · proyeccion 342.3 ± 23.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.16617%+5%0.3%moderado$225,541
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 11.62x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 169.0 ± 44.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00616%+2398%3.9%cautela (no operable)$75
120-139$0.00912%+1172%2.8%cautela (no operable)$45
100-119$0.0117%+601%1.6%cautela (no operable)$45
80-99$0.0104%+267%0.7%cautela (no operable)$53
60-79$0.0052%+172%0.2%cautela (no operable)$80
160-179$0.07518%+138%2.8%cautela (no operable)$217
180-199$0.11916%+34%1.2%moderado$285
lleva 97 · proyeccion 181.6 ± 31.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.00223%+15418%5.8%cautela (no operable)$258
140-159$0.01515%+904%3.4%cautela (no operable)$468
100-119$0.0032%+675%0.4%cautela (no operable)$198
120-139$0.0107%+558%1.4%cautela (no operable)$275
180-199$0.12024%+102%3.5%moderado$1,598
80-99$0.0030%+54%0.0%cautela (no operable)$265
lleva 224 · proyeccion 233.0 ± 10.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.3%Sobre-dispersion: 13.65x38 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.6 ± 45.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0053%+516%0.7%cautela (no operable)$785
160-179$0.09516%+71%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,824
180-199$0.07513%+68%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,327
40-59$0.0111%+34%0.1%cautela (no operable)$778
140-159$0.15017%+15%0.7%moderado$2,348
lleva 27 · proyeccion 119.9 ± 35.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0053%+559%0.7%cautela (no operable)$647
160-179$0.0709%+22%0.4%cautela (no operable)$3,714
60-79$0.0758%+10%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,477
120-139$0.19521%+10%0.6%moderado$3,601
lleva 129 · proyeccion 137.7 ± 10.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.27541%+49%4.7%escalable$11,445
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.1%Sobre-dispersion: 6.57x31 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 124.4 ± 28.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.13019%+45%1.7%moderado$10
lleva 72 · proyeccion 135.0 ± 20.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.14030%+113%4.6%moderado$141
60-79$0.0030%+23%0.0%cautela (no operable)$133
lleva 132 · proyeccion 138.8 ± 6.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.38846%+18%2.8%escalable$240
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.68x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 93.1 ± 24.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0057%+1226%1.7%cautela (no operable)$68
120-139$0.06011%+90%1.4%cautela (no operable)$162
140-159$0.0153%+78%0.3%cautela (no operable)$120
20-39$0.0111%+23%0.1%cautela (no operable)$71
80-99$0.29031%+6%0.7%escalable$484
lleva 3 · proyeccion 54.5 ± 18.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.02018%+798%4.1%cautela (no operable)$837
<20$0.0053%+461%0.6%cautela (no operable)$723
40-59$0.07240%+447%8.7%cautela (no operable)$838
60-79$0.22531%+36%2.6%escalable$818
lleva 51 · proyeccion 59.4 ± 7.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00350%+19971%12.5%cautela (no operable)$3,107
60-79$0.01149%+4573%12.1%cautela (no operable)$3,843
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.58x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 39.8 ± 10.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.06049%+709%11.3%cautela (no operable)$270
60-79$0.0053%+368%0.5%cautela (no operable)$513
lleva 11 · proyeccion 33.1 ± 7.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0254%+47%0.3%cautela (no operable)$453
40-59$0.16520%+19%1.0%moderado$179
lleva 31 · proyeccion 32.7 ± 2.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.5%Sobre-dispersion: 4.29x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.5 ± 10.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0459%+100%1.2%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.43563%+44%8.5%escalable$0
lleva 15 · proyeccion 28.6 ± 7.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.55581%+45%14.2%escalable$95
lleva 31 · proyeccion 33.2 ± 3.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0122%+74%0.2%cautela (no operable)$320
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 16.64x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.9 ± 9.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.00517%+2908%4.0%cautela (no operable)$274
15-19$0.00511%+1852%2.6%cautela (no operable)$265
20-24$0.0055%+887%1.2%cautela (no operable)$280
25-29$0.0052%+288%0.4%cautela (no operable)$274
5-9$0.05920%+239%3.7%cautela (no operable)$320
30-34$0.0051%+19%0.0%cautela (no operable)$236
lleva 3 · proyeccion 6.3 ± 7.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.00510%+1822%2.3%cautela (no operable)$400
10-14$0.01120%+1791%4.8%cautela (no operable)$371
20-24$0.0103%+199%0.5%cautela (no operable)$336
lleva 4 · proyeccion 4.4 ± 2.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0113%+153%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,331
5-9$0.28146%+64%6.3%escalable$742