Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.145 54% +270% 11.5% moderado $49 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,043 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.120 27% +122% 4.2% moderado $179 The White House 140-159 $0.142 31% +120% 5.0% moderado $2,859 The White House 200+ $0.250 53% +114% 9.5% escalable $0 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.195 39% +102% 6.2% moderado $1,883 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.200 35% +74% 4.6% escalable $312 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.165 28% +70% 3.4% moderado $1,196 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.145 22% +54% 2.3% moderado $24 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.145 22% +51% 2.1% moderado $9,275 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.120 17% +45% 1.5% moderado $495 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.405 57% +41% 6.9% escalable $44
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,818 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2495.1 ± 252.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,043
lleva 0 · proyeccion 390.6 ± 100.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 14% +9107% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $269 400-419 $0.002 8% +5114% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $128 420-439 $0.002 7% +4822% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $128 440-459 $0.002 7% +4365% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $128 460-479 $0.002 6% +3792% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $240 480-499 $0.002 5% +3160% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $248 380-399 $0.003 8% +3084% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $443 360-379 $0.004 8% +2125% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $353 340-359 $0.005 7% +1231% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $272 320-339 $0.015 7% +356% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $130 300-319 $0.018 6% +210% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $263 280-299 $0.022 5% +113% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $271
lleva 29 · proyeccion 270.8 ± 78.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 3% +2074% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $10,303 340-359 $0.004 6% +1266% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $14,530 360-379 $0.004 5% +1221% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $13,836 320-339 $0.009 8% +802% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $8,708 420-439 $0.002 1% +792% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $12,079 400-419 $0.003 2% +763% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $12,932 300-319 $0.013 9% +564% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $8,962 280-299 $0.025 10% +301% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,084 60-79 $0.002 0% +161% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $45,425 260-279 $0.046 10% +120% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5,791 240-259 $0.075 10% +30% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $4,221 500+ $0.002 0% +22% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $28,048 80-99 $0.006 1% +11% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $29,912
lleva 86 · proyeccion 202.0 ± 54.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 2% +1084% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $156,985 280-299 $0.004 4% +804% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $32,770 260-279 $0.009 7% +702% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $32,274 240-259 $0.015 10% +545% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $28,265 300-319 $0.004 2% +507% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $34,039 320-339 $0.003 1% +289% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $30,803 220-239 $0.034 13% +283% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $32,434 340-359 $0.002 0% +159% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $27,452 200-219 $0.085 14% +70% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $30,277 100-119 $0.024 4% +49% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $95,591
lleva 809 · proyeccion 904.1 ± 49.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 960-999 $0.009 10% +999% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $32,723 920-959 $0.041 25% +509% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $27,472 1000+ $0.006 3% +346% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $24,790 800-839 $0.073 8% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $81,212
lleva 0 · proyeccion 79.0 ± 45.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 6% +2330% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,388 165-189 $0.002 2% +1347% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $5,943 115-139 $0.011 13% +994% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $24,020 90-114 $0.029 19% +553% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $7,312 65-89 $0.145 22% +51% 2.1% moderado $9,275
lleva 53 · proyeccion 61.0 ± 14.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.003 2% +827% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $59,146 65-89 $0.053 38% +617% 8.6% cautela (no operable) $95,825
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,894 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9% Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x 27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 203.4 ± 45.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.250 53% +114% 9.5% escalable $0
lleva 23 · proyeccion 155.5 ± 36.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 10% +3231% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $141 80-99 $0.011 4% +326% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $120 140-159 $0.053 21% +294% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $248 120-139 $0.046 17% +264% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $239 60-79 $0.005 2% +173% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $176
lleva 101 · proyeccion 156.5 ± 23.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 18% +3455% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $1,878 140-159 $0.142 31% +120% 5.0% moderado $2,859
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,650 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 209.6 ± 55.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.018 5% +177% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $269 80-99 $0.006 1% +137% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $147 180-199 $0.115 13% +16% 0.5% moderado $395 160-179 $0.105 11% +5% 0.1% moderado $289
lleva 29 · proyeccion 156.1 ± 43.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 15% +2656% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $393 100-119 $0.005 10% +1778% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $290 80-99 $0.006 6% +852% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $181 60-79 $0.003 3% +754% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $193 140-159 $0.043 18% +324% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $367 160-179 $0.120 17% +45% 1.5% moderado $495
lleva 144 · proyeccion 209.1 ± 31.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.003 11% +4494% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $1,892 140-159 $0.003 4% +1312% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,639 180-199 $0.065 21% +220% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $3,271
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,962 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6% Sobre-dispersion: 7.14x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 159.5 ± 33.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.060 12% +96% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $24 160-179 $0.145 22% +54% 2.3% moderado $24
lleva 16 · proyeccion 118.7 ± 27.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 17% +3209% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $178 100-119 $0.046 27% +493% 5.9% cautela (no operable) $129 60-79 $0.025 6% +138% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $112 120-139 $0.120 27% +122% 4.2% moderado $179
lleva 118 · proyeccion 160.1 ± 17.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.075 11% +44% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $808 140-159 $0.265 37% +39% 3.5% escalable $1,664
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,953 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 121.7 ± 29.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.200 24% +21% 1.3% escalable $0
lleva 7 · proyeccion 85.1 ± 23.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.046 11% +145% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $192 100-119 $0.085 20% +133% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $454 60-79 $0.210 27% +26% 1.8% escalable $951
lleva 90 · proyeccion 126.8 ± 16.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.011 5% +337% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $662 100-119 $0.165 28% +70% 3.4% moderado $1,196
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 898 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.3% Sobre-dispersion: 2.82x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 54.9 ± 12.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 33% +5413% 8.2% cautela (no operable) $43 80-99 $0.006 2% +294% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $43 40-59 $0.145 54% +270% 11.5% moderado $49
lleva 2 · proyeccion 35.9 ± 9.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.200 35% +74% 4.6% escalable $312 <20 $0.035 5% +36% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $139
lleva 22 · proyeccion 37.7 ± 6.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.195 39% +102% 6.2% moderado $1,883
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 518 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 31.0 ± 12.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.405 57% +41% 6.9% escalable $44
lleva 9 · proyeccion 29.4 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.135 16% +22% 0.8% moderado $149 20-39 $0.555 67% +21% 6.6% escalable $87
lleva 29 · proyeccion 37.5 ± 6.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.525 61% +17% 4.7% escalable $3,974
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.7 ± 10.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.0 ± 8.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.006 4% +600% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $251 15-19 $0.018 10% +472% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $225 10-14 $0.032 18% +466% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $284 5-9 $0.090 23% +154% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $657
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 5.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.039 26% +566% 5.8% cautela (no operable) $783 10-14 $0.018 10% +488% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $946 15-19 $0.005 2% +269% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $638
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).