Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol The White House 180-199 $0.150 36% +137% 6.1% moderado $13,216 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 52% +80% 8.2% escalable $3,753 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.110 19% +73% 2.2% moderado $325 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.310 51% +66% 7.4% escalable $5,105 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.345 57% +65% 8.6% escalable $1,223 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.105 16% +49% 1.4% moderado $36 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.310 45% +46% 5.2% escalable $579 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.265 38% +45% 4.1% escalable $1,140 Elon Musk 90-114 $0.172 24% +37% 1.9% moderado $31,472 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.460 63% +37% 7.9% escalable $2,730 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.265 33% +25% 2.2% escalable $472 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.325 39% +20% 2.4% escalable $891
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,317 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.71x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 320 · proyeccion 1028.4 ± 135.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.085 58% +588% 13.7% cautela (no operable) $6,107 960-999 $0.032 11% +245% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $9,154 920-959 $0.080 10% +20% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $4,303
lleva 0 · proyeccion 301.2 ± 88.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 5% +3553% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $2,080 400-419 $0.002 4% +2736% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $3,009 360-379 $0.003 7% +2581% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $3,708 320-339 $0.005 9% +1462% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $5,118 340-359 $0.005 8% +1316% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,959 300-319 $0.011 9% +758% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $7,675 500+ $0.002 1% +707% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $18,664 280-299 $0.021 9% +338% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $7,448 80-99 $0.003 1% +103% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $21,958 260-279 $0.045 8% +88% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,564
lleva 82 · proyeccion 257.3 ± 67.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 7% +4348% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $17,999 340-359 $0.002 5% +2997% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $22,796 300-319 $0.006 9% +1250% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $32,896 280-299 $0.012 11% +780% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $27,496 260-279 $0.029 12% +295% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $25,210 120-139 $0.007 2% +161% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $60,193 240-259 $0.076 12% +55% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $21,653
lleva 30 · proyeccion 95.2 ± 41.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 9% +3678% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $13,794 165-189 $0.002 3% +2213% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $10,270 <40 $0.004 8% +2102% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $51,609 115-139 $0.020 18% +796% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $23,231 90-114 $0.172 24% +37% 1.9% moderado $31,472
lleva 168 · proyeccion 191.9 ± 24.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.006 11% +1524% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $207,011 200-219 $0.036 25% +586% 5.5% cautela (no operable) $226,111
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,485 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.38x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 153.1 ± 41.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 11% +1913% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $255 120-139 $0.011 16% +1370% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $229 80-99 $0.005 6% +1000% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $371 140-159 $0.022 19% +738% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $263 60-79 $0.005 3% +380% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $404 160-179 $0.085 18% +107% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $400
lleva 98 · proyeccion 174.7 ± 29.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.005 26% +4647% 6.4% cautela (no operable) $2,995 140-159 $0.006 19% +2773% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $2,654
lleva 195 · proyeccion 202.8 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.150 36% +137% 6.1% moderado $13,216
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,189 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.4% Sobre-dispersion: 14.31x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 149.0 ± 46.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 2% +1064% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $515 60-79 $0.006 4% +514% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $106 100-119 $0.082 12% +47% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $426 20-39 $0.004 1% +41% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $417 80-99 $0.060 8% +26% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $338
lleva 74 · proyeccion 163.6 ± 35.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.020 14% +607% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $1,093 80-99 $0.005 3% +446% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $3,519 60-79 $0.003 1% +204% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,907 100-119 $0.043 7% +70% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,488
lleva 168 · proyeccion 177.3 ± 11.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.310 51% +66% 7.4% escalable $5,105
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,593 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.47x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.7 ± 25.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 5% +873% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $18 40-59 $0.005 1% +69% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $388 80-99 $0.105 16% +49% 1.4% moderado $36 120-139 $0.250 28% +14% 1.1% escalable $228
lleva 80 · proyeccion 142.3 ± 18.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.003 1% +228% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $646 100-119 $0.061 10% +61% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $553 140-159 $0.265 38% +45% 4.1% escalable $1,140 120-139 $0.265 33% +25% 2.2% escalable $472
lleva 148 · proyeccion 155.1 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.205 24% +16% 1.0% escalable $3,092
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,692 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 89.7 ± 16.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 4% +677% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $271 100-119 $0.046 24% +419% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $452 80-99 $0.310 45% +46% 5.2% escalable $579
lleva 28 · proyeccion 77.1 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.325 39% +20% 2.4% escalable $891
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.4 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 824 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.6 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 52% +80% 8.2% escalable $3,753
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.3 ± 8.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.013 2% +62% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,026 40-59 $0.290 35% +20% 2.0% escalable $5,422
lleva 32 · proyeccion 33.8 ± 2.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.3 ± 11.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 9% +775% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.345 57% +65% 8.6% escalable $1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 22.8 ± 8.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.460 63% +37% 7.9% escalable $2,730
lleva 10 · proyeccion 12.3 ± 3.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.002 2% +980% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,191
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.6 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.050 13% +161% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.110 19% +73% 2.2% moderado $325 20-24 $0.052 7% +27% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 7.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.027 18% +574% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $462 15-19 $0.017 8% +346% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $274 20-24 $0.005 2% +290% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $283
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.5 ± 2.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.048 21% +339% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $1,440
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).