CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.320	86%	+169%	19.9%	escalable	$22,556
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.120	28%	+132%	4.5%	moderado	$3,165
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.130	24%	+86%	3.2%	moderado	$15
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.210	28%	+36%	2.4%	escalable	$298
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.100	13%	+30%	0.8%	moderado	$27
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.175	22%	+26%	1.4%	moderado	$1,653
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	60-79	$0.145	18%	+25%	1.1%	moderado	$1,119
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.130	16%	+23%	0.8%	moderado	$398
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.520	63%	+21%	5.8%	escalable	$90
Donald Trump	200+	$0.265	32%	+20%	1.8%	escalable	$1,790
CZ (Binance)	<20	$0.130	15%	+19%	0.7%	moderado	$1,683
Ted Cruz	160-179	$0.135	16%	+17%	0.7%	moderado	$15

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 12,908 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 24.76x48 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026? 16% del periodo

lleva 148 · proyeccion 1173.0 ± 159.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.320	86%	+169%	19.9%	escalable	$22,556

Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 313.5 ± 88.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
380-399	$0.002	6%	+4059%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$8,527
400-419	$0.002	5%	+3236%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,588
360-379	$0.005	7%	+1378%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$2,491
340-359	$0.007	8%	+1009%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,918
320-339	$0.009	9%	+836%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,348
300-319	$0.015	9%	+482%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$2,420
280-299	$0.021	9%	+305%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$2,754
260-279	$0.053	8%	+51%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,389
80-99	$0.003	0%	+45%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$7,060
100-119	$0.005	1%	+14%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,707

Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 87 · proyeccion 255.5 ± 64.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
360-379	$0.002	3%	+1650%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$30,870
340-359	$0.003	4%	+1622%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$17,324
320-339	$0.004	6%	+1504%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$16,126
300-319	$0.007	9%	+1143%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$28,157
120-139	$0.002	2%	+1142%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$43,184
380-399	$0.002	1%	+871%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$28,906
280-299	$0.015	11%	+640%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$22,182
140-159	$0.006	3%	+439%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$38,503
400-419	$0.003	1%	+145%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$22,143
260-279	$0.052	12%	+131%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$17,674
160-179	$0.027	5%	+89%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$24,977

Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 86.6 ± 46.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.002	8%	+3913%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,777
165-189	$0.002	3%	+2102%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$5,059
115-139	$0.009	15%	+1444%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$704
90-114	$0.045	20%	+343%	4.1%	cautela (no operable)	$725
<40	$0.055	12%	+127%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$6,103

Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 198 · proyeccion 244.2 ± 33.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
300-319	$0.002	4%	+2440%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$69,911
280-299	$0.009	10%	+1046%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$76,392
260-279	$0.071	18%	+148%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$100,872
200-219	$0.068	14%	+106%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$117,539

Elon Musk # tweets October 3 - October 5, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 60 · proyeccion 69.7 ± 15.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
90-114	$0.005	10%	+1713%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$105,003

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 6,086 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 11.9x32 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 191.5 ± 47.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.005	11%	+1959%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$37
120-139	$0.011	7%	+528%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$24
160-179	$0.038	15%	+293%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$38
100-119	$0.011	4%	+237%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$34
60-79	$0.003	1%	+165%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$50
80-99	$0.011	2%	+52%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$37

White House # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 81 · proyeccion 197.2 ± 37.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.013	16%	+1144%	3.8%	cautela (no operable)	$349
100-119	$0.002	1%	+601%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$231
180-199	$0.078	21%	+166%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,434
80-99	$0.002	0%	+76%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$265

White House # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 245 · proyeccion 277.4 ± 19.6

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 5,429 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 13.65x37 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.1 ± 49.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.005	2%	+186%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$96
80-99	$0.025	3%	+39%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$0
200+	$0.265	32%	+20%	1.8%	escalable	$1,790

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 82 · proyeccion 173.6 ± 35.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.009	4%	+400%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,262
120-139	$0.025	10%	+318%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,436
80-99	$0.010	1%	+42%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,315
160-179	$0.175	22%	+26%	1.4%	moderado	$1,653
140-159	$0.165	18%	+8%	0.4%	moderado	$4,972

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 141 · proyeccion 172.1 ± 20.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.075	9%	+23%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$11,388
180-199	$0.245	27%	+10%	0.8%	escalable	$7,694

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 3,554 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.7x30 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 138.8 ± 30.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.130	24%	+86%	3.2%	moderado	$15
160-179	$0.135	16%	+17%	0.7%	moderado	$15

Ted Cruz # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 34 · proyeccion 116.4 ± 23.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.210	28%	+36%	2.4%	escalable	$298
140-159	$0.100	13%	+30%	0.8%	moderado	$27

Ted Cruz # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 86 · proyeccion 107.7 ± 12.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.065	24%	+267%	4.6%	cautela (no operable)	$709
120-139	$0.130	16%	+23%	0.8%	moderado	$398

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 2,415 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.6x28 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 105.4 ± 26.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.046	20%	+327%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$86
140-159	$0.030	8%	+155%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$60

Zelenskyy # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 33 · proyeccion 95.0 ± 20.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.005	4%	+564%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$354
120-139	$0.032	10%	+210%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$333
60-79	$0.145	18%	+25%	1.1%	moderado	$1,119
80-99	$0.345	37%	+6%	0.8%	escalable	$1,335

Zelenskyy # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 86 · proyeccion 105.8 ± 11.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.120	28%	+132%	4.5%	moderado	$3,165
120-139	$0.070	11%	+65%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$483

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 1,078 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x28 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 44.8 ± 10.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.006	8%	+1196%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$204
40-59	$0.060	60%	+906%	14.5%	cautela (no operable)	$130

NYC Mayor # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 11 · proyeccion 35.4 ± 7.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.060	30%	+400%	6.4%	cautela (no operable)	$518
<20	$0.021	2%	+6%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$198

NYC Mayor # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 26 · proyeccion 32.6 ± 4.1

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 651 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0%Sobre-dispersion: 4.35x28 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.3 ± 10.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.045	13%	+188%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$5
20-39	$0.520	63%	+21%	5.8%	escalable	$90

CZ # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 12 · proyeccion 28.0 ± 8.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.016	8%	+419%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$40
<20	$0.130	15%	+19%	0.7%	moderado	$1,683

CZ # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 22 · proyeccion 26.2 ± 4.3

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 155 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 16.44x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 10.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.009	7%	+624%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$28
10-14	$0.026	17%	+527%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$48
5-9	$0.034	19%	+465%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$34
15-19	$0.035	12%	+238%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$76
30-34	$0.005	1%	+88%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$49
25-29	$0.016	3%	+82%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$43

Khamenei # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.6 ± 7.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.005	14%	+2787%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$355
5-9	$0.019	23%	+1117%	5.4%	cautela (no operable)	$373
15-19	$0.005	6%	+1105%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$327
20-24	$0.009	2%	+98%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$511

Khamenei # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.0 ± 4.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
5-9	$0.005	18%	+3184%	4.4%	cautela (no operable)	$977
10-14	$0.009	2%	+118%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,243