CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.265	55%	+107%	9.6%	escalable	$2,257
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.205	42%	+105%	6.8%	escalable	$1,117
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.185	34%	+82%	4.6%	moderado	$657
Donald Trump	140-159	$0.105	19%	+78%	2.3%	moderado	$1,742
Donald Trump	180-199	$0.180	31%	+70%	3.8%	moderado	$3,751
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.105	16%	+57%	1.7%	moderado	$1,766
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.370	53%	+44%	6.5%	escalable	$3,463
Ted Cruz	160-179	$0.385	55%	+42%	6.6%	escalable	$1,944
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.180	20%	+14%	0.7%	moderado	$1,820
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	20-39	$0.495	56%	+13%	3.1%	escalable	$6,181
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	20-39	$0.700	78%	+12%	6.8%	escalable	$12,841
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.375	41%	+10%	1.6%	escalable	$4,545

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,386 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 52% del periodo

lleva 371 · proyeccion 977.1 ± 124.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.055	43%	+679%	9.9%	cautela (no operable)	$6,719
960-999	$0.026	13%	+390%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$10,652
920-959	$0.065	12%	+88%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$5,036
880-919	$0.095	11%	+11%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$4,673

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 34 · proyeccion 234.4 ± 71.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
280-299	$0.003	8%	+3209%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$32,307
300-319	$0.003	6%	+2471%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$49,628
320-339	$0.003	5%	+1748%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$52,111
260-279	$0.009	10%	+1059%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$16,452
240-259	$0.021	11%	+430%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$10,607
80-99	$0.004	1%	+316%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$67,613
220-239	$0.045	11%	+146%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$8,388

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 133 · proyeccion 207.5 ± 43.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
260-279	$0.003	7%	+2588%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$78,164
280-299	$0.002	3%	+2032%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$80,625
240-259	$0.005	11%	+1989%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$86,499
300-319	$0.002	1%	+726%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$79,738
220-239	$0.034	16%	+377%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$65,807
140-159	$0.026	8%	+188%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$170,593

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,543 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 36 · proyeccion 150.6 ± 36.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.005	18%	+3262%	4.5%	cautela (no operable)	$563
100-119	$0.005	12%	+2222%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$621
140-159	$0.021	22%	+939%	5.0%	cautela (no operable)	$771
160-179	$0.033	19%	+479%	4.1%	cautela (no operable)	$976

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 142 · proyeccion 180.0 ± 20.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.059	33%	+452%	7.2%	cautela (no operable)	$6,654

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x30 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 62 · proyeccion 166.2 ± 38.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.003	3%	+881%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,218
120-139	$0.025	13%	+437%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$741
100-119	$0.018	7%	+306%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$882
60-79	$0.003	1%	+275%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$4,184
140-159	$0.105	19%	+78%	2.3%	moderado	$1,742
160-179	$0.180	20%	+14%	0.7%	moderado	$1,820

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 141 · proyeccion 185.6 ± 25.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.046	25%	+447%	5.5%	cautela (no operable)	$5,547
180-199	$0.180	31%	+70%	3.8%	moderado	$3,751

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,661 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x23 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 45 · proyeccion 131.9 ± 22.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.015	7%	+334%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$369
100-119	$0.086	22%	+149%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$980
120-139	$0.185	34%	+82%	4.6%	moderado	$657

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 142 · proyeccion 171.1 ± 13.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.050	18%	+265%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$2,322
160-179	$0.385	55%	+42%	6.6%	escalable	$1,944

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 17 · proyeccion 79.4 ± 14.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.015	8%	+405%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$562
80-99	$0.205	42%	+105%	6.8%	escalable	$1,117

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 49 · proyeccion 71.3 ± 8.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.105	16%	+57%	1.7%	moderado	$1,766
40-59	$0.060	8%	+35%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,275

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 840 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 10 · proyeccion 37.7 ± 8.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.009	2%	+137%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,560
20-39	$0.495	56%	+13%	3.1%	escalable	$6,181
40-59	$0.375	41%	+10%	1.6%	escalable	$4,545

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 26 · proyeccion 35.4 ± 5.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.700	78%	+12%	6.8%	escalable	$12,841

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 461 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 9.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.014	3%	+111%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$470
20-39	$0.265	55%	+107%	9.6%	escalable	$2,257

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 14 · proyeccion 20.0 ± 5.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.370	53%	+44%	6.5%	escalable	$3,463

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.006	7%	+1111%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$297
20-24	$0.005	2%	+304%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$187
10-14	$0.045	17%	+275%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$410
5-9	$0.235	25%	+8%	0.6%	escalable	$641

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.6 ± 4.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.002	5%	+2472%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,172
5-9	$0.070	28%	+294%	5.5%	cautela (no operable)	$2,746
15-19	$0.002	0%	+37%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$982