CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-30 17:21 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.15061%+305%13.5%moderado$93
Elon Musk1000+$0.340100%+194%25.0%escalable$2,045
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.12035%+188%6.4%moderado$4,709
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.11525%+115%3.7%moderado$712
The White House140-159$0.10623%+114%3.4%moderado$311
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.15029%+96%4.2%moderado$1,398
Ted Cruz120-139$0.16030%+86%4.1%moderado$180
Volodymyr Zelenskyy120-139$0.12521%+70%2.5%moderado$41
Donald Trump160-179$0.12020%+66%2.2%moderado$984
CZ (Binance)40-59$0.11017%+57%1.8%moderado$60
Elon Musk65-89$0.20031%+54%3.4%escalable$49,287
The White House140-159$0.25538%+47%4.0%escalable$3,725
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2448.3 ± 250.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.340100%+194%25.0%escalable$2,045
lleva 0 · proyeccion 345.8 ± 94.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.0025%+3323%1.2%cautela (no operable)$9,369
380-399$0.0038%+2433%1.8%cautela (no operable)$6,179
460-479$0.0024%+2288%0.9%cautela (no operable)$5,402
400-419$0.0037%+2146%1.6%cautela (no operable)$6,587
420-439$0.0036%+1803%1.4%cautela (no operable)$5,517
440-459$0.0035%+1750%1.1%cautela (no operable)$5,893
480-499$0.0023%+1668%0.6%cautela (no operable)$5,402
360-379$0.0078%+1071%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,649
340-359$0.0118%+705%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,359
320-339$0.0158%+438%1.7%cautela (no operable)$2,137
300-319$0.0218%+283%1.5%cautela (no operable)$556
280-299$0.0297%+144%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,817
260-279$0.0556%+11%0.2%cautela (no operable)$492
lleva 61 · proyeccion 258.3 ± 71.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0033%+1229%0.8%cautela (no operable)$17,021
340-359$0.0055%+799%1.1%cautela (no operable)$19,067
320-339$0.0087%+750%1.5%cautela (no operable)$20,452
380-399$0.0032%+726%0.5%cautela (no operable)$11,713
300-319$0.0119%+724%1.9%cautela (no operable)$15,408
400-419$0.0021%+690%0.3%cautela (no operable)$16,843
80-99$0.0021%+354%0.1%cautela (no operable)$51,940
280-299$0.02410%+333%2.0%cautela (no operable)$10,247
420-439$0.0021%+320%0.1%cautela (no operable)$14,578
260-279$0.04811%+133%1.6%cautela (no operable)$10,191
100-119$0.0071%+69%0.1%cautela (no operable)$28,749
240-259$0.08511%+30%0.7%cautela (no operable)$7,570
lleva 0 · proyeccion 113.3 ± 53.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.0029%+6063%2.3%cautela (no operable)$2,144
190-214$0.0025%+3137%1.2%cautela (no operable)$479
140-164$0.00714%+1935%3.4%cautela (no operable)$2,206
115-139$0.01818%+916%4.1%cautela (no operable)$1,641
90-114$0.06518%+176%3.1%cautela (no operable)$2,829
lleva 118 · proyeccion 189.5 ± 42.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0043%+852%0.8%cautela (no operable)$45,752
240-259$0.0097%+642%1.5%cautela (no operable)$48,788
220-239$0.01812%+588%2.6%cautela (no operable)$55,696
280-299$0.0031%+408%0.3%cautela (no operable)$41,285
300-319$0.0020%+160%0.1%cautela (no operable)$48,219
200-219$0.06517%+155%2.7%cautela (no operable)$49,641
120-139$0.0317%+127%1.0%cautela (no operable)$113,507
lleva 841 · proyeccion 891.7 ± 36.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
960-999$0.0033%+1046%0.7%cautela (no operable)$34,801
920-959$0.01819%+929%4.4%cautela (no operable)$34,653
lleva 32 · proyeccion 66.6 ± 29.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.0055%+749%1.0%cautela (no operable)$47,470
90-114$0.02517%+582%3.6%cautela (no operable)$54,788
<40$0.05017%+242%3.1%cautela (no operable)$78,700
65-89$0.20031%+54%3.4%escalable$49,287
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9%Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 186.1 ± 43.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0054%+628%0.9%cautela (no operable)$19
80-99$0.0052%+199%0.3%cautela (no operable)$11
140-159$0.08013%+60%1.3%cautela (no operable)$17
200+$0.26038%+46%4.0%escalable$506
lleva 38 · proyeccion 153.3 ± 34.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00618%+2685%4.4%cautela (no operable)$276
100-119$0.00610%+1498%2.5%cautela (no operable)$324
80-99$0.0114%+290%0.8%cautela (no operable)$168
60-79$0.0051%+132%0.2%cautela (no operable)$223
140-159$0.10623%+114%3.4%moderado$311
lleva 116 · proyeccion 154.3 ± 19.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.02519%+638%4.2%cautela (no operable)$2,468
180-199$0.0509%+81%1.1%cautela (no operable)$5,536
140-159$0.25538%+47%4.0%escalable$3,725
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.76x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 188.1 ± 52.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0063%+345%0.5%cautela (no operable)$147
120-139$0.0258%+221%1.4%cautela (no operable)$269
100-119$0.0225%+128%0.7%cautela (no operable)$140
60-79$0.0051%+124%0.2%cautela (no operable)$161
160-179$0.10514%+35%1.0%moderado$289
140-159$0.10012%+16%0.4%moderado$565
180-199$0.13515%+12%0.5%moderado$395
lleva 60 · proyeccion 165.4 ± 39.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00313%+4351%3.3%cautela (no operable)$511
100-119$0.0038%+2399%1.8%cautela (no operable)$408
80-99$0.0033%+990%0.7%cautela (no operable)$299
140-159$0.04318%+330%3.7%cautela (no operable)$599
60-79$0.0061%+85%0.1%cautela (no operable)$331
160-179$0.12020%+66%2.2%moderado$984
180-199$0.13517%+24%0.9%moderado$1,305
lleva 175 · proyeccion 218.4 ± 25.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.05017%+231%3.0%cautela (no operable)$3,810
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6%Sobre-dispersion: 7.13x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 147.4 ± 32.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.19521%+7%0.4%moderado$44
lleva 33 · proyeccion 123.5 ± 25.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.00513%+2513%3.2%cautela (no operable)$178
100-119$0.04726%+464%5.7%cautela (no operable)$139
120-139$0.16030%+86%4.1%moderado$180
60-79$0.0294%+21%0.2%cautela (no operable)$116
lleva 135 · proyeccion 164.9 ± 14.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0024%+2559%1.0%cautela (no operable)$1,082
140-159$0.04331%+630%7.1%cautela (no operable)$1,813
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 108.6 ± 28.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.05510%+84%1.2%cautela (no operable)$20
120-139$0.12521%+70%2.5%moderado$41
100-119$0.19528%+42%2.6%moderado$105
lleva 19 · proyeccion 84.0 ± 21.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.04911%+126%1.6%cautela (no operable)$273
100-119$0.08519%+120%2.8%cautela (no operable)$542
20-39$0.0152%+26%0.1%cautela (no operable)$171
lleva 102 · proyeccion 125.8 ± 13.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.15029%+96%4.2%moderado$1,398
140-159$0.11814%+21%0.7%moderado$1,015
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 48.0 ± 11.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.00616%+2334%3.8%cautela (no operable)$67
40-59$0.15061%+305%13.5%moderado$93
lleva 4 · proyeccion 31.3 ± 8.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0129%+642%1.9%cautela (no operable)$380
40-59$0.09017%+91%2.2%cautela (no operable)$540
lleva 24 · proyeccion 33.1 ± 5.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.04010%+154%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,953
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.4 ± 12.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.11017%+57%1.8%moderado$60
20-39$0.47559%+25%5.6%escalable$228
lleva 16 · proyeccion 33.5 ± 9.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 36 · proyeccion 41.6 ± 5.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.12035%+188%6.4%moderado$4,709
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1%Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.4 ± 10.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.07218%+153%3.0%cautela (no operable)$0
5-9$0.08019%+141%3.1%cautela (no operable)$0
15-19$0.07214%+89%1.7%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0768%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.7 ± 7.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0057%+1368%1.7%cautela (no operable)$306
10-14$0.03017%+454%3.5%cautela (no operable)$388
20-24$0.0052%+288%0.4%cautela (no operable)$278
5-9$0.11525%+115%3.7%moderado$712
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.5 ± 4.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.02621%+705%4.8%cautela (no operable)$1,016
10-14$0.0053%+464%0.6%cautela (no operable)$1,485