Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.135 71% +428% 16.7% moderado $4,239 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.100 36% +262% 7.3% moderado $827 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.125 39% +215% 7.7% moderado $74 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.315 58% +85% 9.7% escalable $792 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.100 18% +76% 2.1% moderado $0 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.125 21% +66% 2.4% moderado $98,793 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.210 34% +61% 4.1% escalable $348 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.165 25% +51% 2.5% moderado $3,275 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.400 60% +49% 8.1% escalable $1,395 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.170 24% +38% 2.0% moderado $216 Donald Trump 200+ $0.210 29% +37% 2.5% escalable $1,147 Elon Musk 40-64 $0.375 46% +22% 3.3% escalable $44,274
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,229 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 215 · proyeccion 1083.2 ± 149.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.135 71% +428% 16.7% moderado $4,239 960-999 $0.069 8% +22% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $3,782
lleva 0 · proyeccion 332.3 ± 92.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 420-439 $0.002 5% +3208% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,079 380-399 $0.003 7% +2752% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,728 400-419 $0.003 6% +2336% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,320 500+ $0.002 3% +2218% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $20,321 360-379 $0.005 8% +1348% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,113 320-339 $0.009 9% +916% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $1,747 340-359 $0.011 8% +709% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,175 300-319 $0.015 8% +441% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $2,246 280-299 $0.027 8% +188% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $5,812 260-279 $0.055 7% +25% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $611 80-99 $0.003 0% +9% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $14,839
lleva 63 · proyeccion 242.9 ± 67.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 3% +2192% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $41,737 320-339 $0.003 5% +1987% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $41,718 300-319 $0.004 7% +1716% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $38,985 280-299 $0.009 9% +930% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $26,123 260-279 $0.025 11% +326% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $14,918 100-119 $0.005 2% +212% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $62,583 240-259 $0.055 12% +112% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $12,559
lleva 0 · proyeccion 95.2 ± 49.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 10% +4082% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $682 165-189 $0.002 5% +3372% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $849 115-139 $0.011 16% +1455% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $1,061 90-114 $0.040 20% +396% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $675
lleva 147 · proyeccion 200.4 ± 36.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 4% +2471% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $100,016 240-259 $0.004 9% +1898% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $99,049 280-299 $0.002 1% +728% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $96,659 220-239 $0.022 16% +600% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $88,654 140-159 $0.014 8% +504% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $177,280 200-219 $0.125 21% +66% 2.4% moderado $98,793
lleva 31 · proyeccion 46.2 ± 19.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 65-89 $0.011 16% +1441% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $75,323 90-114 $0.002 1% +803% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $64,084 40-64 $0.375 46% +22% 3.3% escalable $44,274
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,354 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.9x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.7 ± 45.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.006 11% +1762% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $120 100-119 $0.006 7% +1019% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $120 80-99 $0.005 3% +506% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $149 140-159 $0.057 15% +169% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $268 60-79 $0.006 1% +128% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $169
lleva 49 · proyeccion 153.3 ± 35.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 11% +3407% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $453 120-139 $0.007 18% +2455% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $656 140-159 $0.044 22% +405% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $1,250
lleva 134 · proyeccion 162.7 ± 18.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.007 9% +1254% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $2,890 140-159 $0.054 33% +498% 7.2% cautela (no operable) $6,750
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,098 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 171.7 ± 49.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.002 0% +89% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $567 40-59 $0.005 1% +62% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $331 200+ $0.210 29% +37% 2.5% escalable $1,147
lleva 62 · proyeccion 153.3 ± 36.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 5% +776% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,092 60-79 $0.004 2% +361% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $2,117 100-119 $0.033 11% +224% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,710 140-159 $0.180 22% +20% 1.1% moderado $959 120-139 $0.160 18% +10% 0.5% moderado $1,531
lleva 156 · proyeccion 188.4 ± 21.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.009 8% +775% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $3,903 160-179 $0.165 25% +51% 2.5% moderado $3,275
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,493 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 131.9 ± 27.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.170 24% +38% 2.0% moderado $216 60-79 $0.021 2% +8% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $511
lleva 42 · proyeccion 118.8 ± 20.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.210 34% +61% 4.1% escalable $348 80-99 $0.091 15% +60% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $417 60-79 $0.018 3% +47% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $124 120-139 $0.285 33% +15% 1.5% escalable $412
lleva 136 · proyeccion 156.7 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 5% +3513% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $976 140-159 $0.485 55% +13% 3.1% escalable $2,794
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,652 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 101.7 ± 17.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.125 39% +215% 7.7% moderado $74 120-139 $0.049 14% +188% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $40
lleva 20 · proyeccion 80.6 ± 13.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.405 45% +11% 1.9% escalable $664
lleva 50 · proyeccion 70.1 ± 7.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 809 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 46.8 ± 11.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.080 14% +72% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $811 40-59 $0.400 60% +49% 8.1% escalable $1,395 <20 $0.009 1% +8% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $635
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.2 ± 8.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +170% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,463 40-59 $0.420 48% +14% 2.5% escalable $4,187
lleva 29 · proyeccion 35.8 ± 4.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.3 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 15% +1243% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $20 20-39 $0.315 58% +85% 9.7% escalable $792
lleva 0 · proyeccion 16.4 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.100 36% +262% 7.3% moderado $827 40-59 $0.006 1% +15% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $400
lleva 6 · proyeccion 10.7 ± 5.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.030 4% +34% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $3,179
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.9 ± 10.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 2% +218% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $12 10-14 $0.100 18% +76% 2.1% moderado $0 15-19 $0.090 14% +54% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $0 25-29 $0.043 5% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.8 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.035 17% +383% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $319 15-19 $0.026 8% +201% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $128 20-24 $0.022 3% +18% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $117
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.4 ± 4.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.095 20% +114% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $5,177 10-14 $0.013 3% +102% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $2,952
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.