CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.135	74%	+446%	17.4%	moderado	$4,239
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.125	40%	+216%	7.7%	moderado	$74
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.135	39%	+190%	7.4%	moderado	$777
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.320	58%	+81%	9.6%	escalable	$777
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.175	31%	+79%	4.2%	moderado	$344
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.180	25%	+41%	2.3%	moderado	$216
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.430	60%	+39%	7.4%	escalable	$1,350
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.200	28%	+38%	2.4%	escalable	$0
Donald Trump	200+	$0.245	32%	+33%	2.6%	escalable	$1,103
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.190	24%	+29%	1.7%	moderado	$2,735
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.355	45%	+28%	3.9%	escalable	$657
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.140	17%	+24%	1.0%	moderado	$1,531

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,222 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 213 · proyeccion 1094.5 ± 150.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.135	74%	+446%	17.4%	moderado	$4,239
960-999	$0.064	8%	+25%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,978

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 345.5 ± 94.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
420-439	$0.002	6%	+3694%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$4,079
500+	$0.002	5%	+3273%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$20,143
400-419	$0.003	7%	+2590%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$5,258
380-399	$0.004	8%	+2071%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,266
360-379	$0.007	8%	+994%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,083
340-359	$0.008	8%	+958%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,175
320-339	$0.009	8%	+779%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,528
300-319	$0.017	8%	+363%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$2,034
280-299	$0.029	7%	+141%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$5,612
260-279	$0.055	6%	+11%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$511

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 61 · proyeccion 254.1 ± 70.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
340-359	$0.002	5%	+2919%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$40,514
320-339	$0.003	6%	+2455%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$41,718
300-319	$0.004	8%	+1747%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$27,251
280-299	$0.011	10%	+850%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$25,122
100-119	$0.003	1%	+452%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$60,693
260-279	$0.030	11%	+268%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$13,483
120-139	$0.013	2%	+76%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$52,644
240-259	$0.075	11%	+51%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$11,028

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 108.4 ± 52.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
165-189	$0.002	8%	+5336%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$731
140-164	$0.003	13%	+5261%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$682
115-139	$0.017	18%	+970%	4.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,058
90-114	$0.045	19%	+314%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$612

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 145 · proyeccion 211.5 ± 41.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
280-299	$0.002	3%	+2114%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$94,552
260-279	$0.004	7%	+1978%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$87,558
140-159	$0.005	6%	+1163%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$137,692
240-259	$0.015	13%	+772%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$88,119
220-239	$0.053	17%	+226%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$83,979

Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 29 · proyeccion 57.3 ± 26.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
90-114	$0.004	10%	+2734%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$57,991
65-89	$0.065	28%	+329%	5.7%	cautela (no operable)	$56,145
<40	$0.200	24%	+19%	1.2%	escalable	$68,430

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,343 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.7 ± 45.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.006	10%	+1607%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$120
100-119	$0.006	6%	+901%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$120
80-99	$0.006	3%	+387%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$139
60-79	$0.006	1%	+96%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$169
140-159	$0.079	14%	+84%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$268

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 46 · proyeccion 154.6 ± 36.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.003	10%	+3297%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$453
120-139	$0.007	17%	+2367%	4.2%	cautela (no operable)	$651
140-159	$0.040	22%	+448%	4.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,250

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 131 · proyeccion 164.0 ± 19.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.008	10%	+1102%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,488
140-159	$0.037	30%	+716%	6.9%	cautela (no operable)	$6,590

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,086 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.43x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.6 ± 50.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.002	0%	+59%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$567
40-59	$0.004	1%	+53%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$121
200+	$0.245	32%	+33%	2.6%	escalable	$1,103
180-199	$0.140	15%	+9%	0.3%	moderado	$570

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 57 · proyeccion 153.2 ± 37.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.005	2%	+260%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$917
40-59	$0.002	0%	+221%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$3,928
100-119	$0.037	11%	+188%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,660
80-99	$0.018	5%	+182%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$682
120-139	$0.140	17%	+24%	1.0%	moderado	$1,531

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 151 · proyeccion 188.4 ± 23.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.026	9%	+243%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$3,507
160-179	$0.190	24%	+29%	1.7%	moderado	$2,735

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,488 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 136.4 ± 27.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.050	14%	+184%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$0
60-79	$0.006	2%	+157%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$493
140-159	$0.180	25%	+41%	2.3%	moderado	$216
120-139	$0.200	28%	+38%	2.4%	escalable	$0
180-199	$0.045	5%	+6%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$0

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 40 · proyeccion 121.3 ± 21.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.175	31%	+79%	4.2%	moderado	$344
80-99	$0.091	13%	+40%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$417
60-79	$0.018	2%	+26%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$124
120-139	$0.285	34%	+19%	1.9%	escalable	$383

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 134 · proyeccion 159.2 ± 11.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.002	5%	+3060%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$960
140-159	$0.420	46%	+10%	1.8%	escalable	$2,781

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,652 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.0 ± 17.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.125	40%	+216%	7.7%	moderado	$74
120-139	$0.049	14%	+194%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$40

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 20 · proyeccion 80.9 ± 13.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.355	45%	+28%	3.9%	escalable	$657

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 50 · proyeccion 70.3 ± 7.9

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 807 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 48.3 ± 11.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.027	17%	+525%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$753
40-59	$0.430	60%	+39%	7.4%	escalable	$1,350

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 12 · proyeccion 38.6 ± 8.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.004	2%	+233%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,453
40-59	$0.410	45%	+10%	1.8%	escalable	$3,933

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 27 · proyeccion 35.2 ± 4.9

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.1 ± 12.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.019	17%	+805%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$20
20-39	$0.320	58%	+81%	9.6%	escalable	$777

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 17.1 ± 9.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.135	39%	+190%	7.4%	moderado	$777
40-59	$0.006	1%	+66%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$358

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 11.4 ± 5.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.025	7%	+182%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$3,084
<20	$0.851	92%	+8%	11.1%	escalable	$2,601

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.9 ± 10.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
30-34	$0.006	2%	+218%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$12
15-19	$0.045	14%	+208%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$0
10-14	$0.080	18%	+120%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$0
20-24	$0.050	9%	+77%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$11
25-29	$0.043	5%	+6%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$70

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.8 ± 8.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.043	17%	+283%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$319
15-19	$0.035	8%	+131%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$128

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.4 ± 4.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
5-9	$0.085	20%	+140%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$5,072
10-14	$0.011	3%	+137%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,952