Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.200 38% +91% 5.7% escalable $251 Elon Musk 180-199 $0.135 26% +90% 3.5% moderado $198,797 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.172 32% +85% 4.4% moderado $1,383 The White House 180-199 $0.235 43% +84% 6.5% escalable $11,751 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.320 57% +77% 9.1% escalable $3,753 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.355 58% +62% 8.6% escalable $1,223 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.125 18% +46% 1.6% moderado $325 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.315 45% +42% 4.8% escalable $571 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.235 29% +25% 1.9% escalable $222 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.525 65% +25% 6.8% escalable $2,605 Elon Musk 140-159 $0.110 14% +24% 0.7% moderado $264,574 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.360 43% +18% 2.6% escalable $881
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,301 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.7x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 301 · proyeccion 1021.0 ± 136.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.050 56% +1026% 13.5% cautela (no operable) $5,355 960-999 $0.019 11% +472% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $8,638 920-959 $0.052 10% +86% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,043
lleva 0 · proyeccion 312.8 ± 89.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 5% +3216% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,609 360-379 $0.003 7% +2810% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $3,308 380-399 $0.004 6% +1662% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,680 320-339 $0.005 9% +1487% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $5,118 340-359 $0.005 8% +1385% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,959 500+ $0.002 2% +1142% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $18,278 300-319 $0.011 9% +745% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $7,675 280-299 $0.021 9% +319% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,061 260-279 $0.045 8% +76% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,544 80-99 $0.004 0% +16% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $21,548
lleva 63 · proyeccion 249.9 ± 69.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 6% +3870% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $16,510 340-359 $0.002 4% +2641% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $20,244 300-319 $0.004 8% +1886% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $29,886 280-299 $0.005 10% +1673% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $25,345 360-379 $0.002 3% +1642% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $23,217 260-279 $0.011 11% +950% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $19,663 80-99 $0.002 1% +436% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $50,811 100-119 $0.004 2% +328% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $48,497 240-259 $0.044 11% +158% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $14,279 120-139 $0.017 3% +51% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $49,634 220-239 $0.085 11% +29% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $10,191
lleva 11 · proyeccion 87.8 ± 44.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 8% +5236% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $11,183 165-189 $0.002 3% +1969% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $9,658 115-139 $0.008 15% +1795% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $13,787 90-114 $0.055 21% +283% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $21,762
lleva 149 · proyeccion 184.5 ± 30.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.002 9% +5820% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $159,578 200-219 $0.018 19% +965% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $171,213 180-199 $0.135 26% +90% 3.5% moderado $198,797 140-159 $0.110 14% +24% 0.7% moderado $264,574
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,473 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.4x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 163.8 ± 43.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 8% +1433% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $180 120-139 $0.011 13% +1122% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $154 80-99 $0.005 4% +680% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $296 140-159 $0.025 17% +608% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $150 60-79 $0.005 2% +221% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $329 160-179 $0.095 18% +91% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $286
lleva 83 · proyeccion 170.3 ± 31.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 20% +2998% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $2,607 160-179 $0.010 25% +2386% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $2,875
lleva 180 · proyeccion 198.5 ± 14.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.235 43% +84% 6.5% escalable $11,751
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,182 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.4% Sobre-dispersion: 14.32x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 154.2 ± 47.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +876% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $509 60-79 $0.006 3% +424% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $100 80-99 $0.043 7% +52% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $232 120-139 $0.135 15% +9% 0.3% moderado $103 20-39 $0.005 1% +5% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $281
lleva 59 · proyeccion 153.8 ± 36.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 2% +454% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,887 80-99 $0.013 5% +287% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,648 100-119 $0.033 11% +220% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,361 120-139 $0.070 17% +147% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $1,041
lleva 153 · proyeccion 167.5 ± 14.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.040 26% +559% 5.8% cautela (no operable) $3,401 180-199 $0.175 19% +8% 0.4% moderado $5,517
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,576 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.48x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 125.7 ± 26.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 3% +565% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $18 120-139 $0.235 29% +25% 1.9% escalable $222 140-159 $0.180 20% +12% 0.6% moderado $254 40-59 $0.005 1% +6% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $88
lleva 66 · proyeccion 134.6 ± 19.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.064 18% +189% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $553 120-139 $0.200 38% +91% 5.7% escalable $251 140-159 $0.275 30% +9% 0.9% escalable $1,045
lleva 134 · proyeccion 147.3 ± 8.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.025 18% +619% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $2,824
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,688 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 91.2 ± 16.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.006 4% +573% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $271 100-119 $0.050 26% +435% 5.7% cautela (no operable) $452 80-99 $0.315 45% +42% 4.8% escalable $571
lleva 28 · proyeccion 78.7 ± 12.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.038 5% +24% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $160 80-99 $0.360 43% +18% 2.6% escalable $881
lleva 60 · proyeccion 70.0 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.011 4% +282% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $2,043
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 823 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 43.9 ± 11.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.320 57% +77% 9.1% escalable $3,753
lleva 10 · proyeccion 35.7 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 33% +12% 1.3% escalable $5,377
lleva 29 · proyeccion 33.2 ± 3.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.021 3% +67% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $7,003
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 453 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3% Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.2 ± 11.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 11% +951% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.355 58% +62% 8.6% escalable $1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 23.8 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.525 65% +25% 6.8% escalable $2,605
lleva 10 · proyeccion 13.3 ± 4.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.004 7% +1544% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,032
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.4 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.051 14% +171% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.125 18% +46% 1.6% moderado $325
lleva 1 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 7.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.005 4% +606% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $283 10-14 $0.036 19% +418% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $391 15-19 $0.033 10% +200% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $274
lleva 2 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 3.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.020 5% +148% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $637 5-9 $0.172 32% +85% 4.4% moderado $1,383
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.