CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.160	77%	+384%	18.3%	moderado	$3,469
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.190	49%	+157%	9.2%	moderado	$1,817
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.320	54%	+69%	8.1%	escalable	$0
Ted Cruz	80-99	$0.125	20%	+62%	2.2%	moderado	$356
Donald Trump	200+	$0.345	54%	+57%	7.5%	escalable	$0
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.160	24%	+52%	2.5%	moderado	$2,158
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.355	52%	+47%	6.5%	escalable	$754
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	60-79	$0.245	36%	+46%	3.8%	escalable	$0
The White House	200+	$0.330	48%	+46%	5.7%	escalable	$0
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.105	14%	+29%	0.9%	moderado	$174
Elon Musk	<40	$0.190	24%	+27%	1.6%	moderado	$79,798
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.275	33%	+19%	1.8%	escalable	$195

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,180 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 26% del periodo

lleva 170 · proyeccion 1116.4 ± 155.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.160	77%	+384%	18.3%	moderado	$3,469

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 409.3 ± 102.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
500+	$0.005	19%	+3335%	4.6%	cautela (no operable)	$112
440-459	$0.005	7%	+1211%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$12
460-479	$0.005	7%	+1092%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$12
480-499	$0.005	6%	+942%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$112
360-379	$0.015	7%	+382%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$50
340-359	$0.015	7%	+353%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$0
320-339	$0.015	6%	+297%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$150
300-319	$0.035	5%	+38%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$100
400-419	$0.060	8%	+30%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$50
380-399	$0.060	8%	+27%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$50

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 274.4 ± 81.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
380-399	$0.002	4%	+2297%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$21,320
360-379	$0.003	5%	+1879%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$14,901
340-359	$0.004	6%	+1730%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$21,066
400-419	$0.002	2%	+1540%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$11,890
320-339	$0.008	8%	+876%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$7,184
300-319	$0.017	9%	+443%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$10,249
80-99	$0.003	1%	+194%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$35,049
280-299	$0.034	10%	+184%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$12,034
260-279	$0.055	10%	+78%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$4,398
100-119	$0.007	1%	+78%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$33,215

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 102 · proyeccion 231.8 ± 57.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
320-339	$0.002	3%	+2115%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$36,343
300-319	$0.004	6%	+1502%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$48,885
340-359	$0.002	2%	+1065%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$35,887
280-299	$0.009	8%	+784%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$41,610
120-139	$0.005	3%	+425%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$70,867
260-279	$0.024	11%	+365%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$50,881
240-259	$0.037	13%	+251%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$34,849
220-239	$0.095	14%	+45%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$36,943

Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 91.6 ± 48.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.002	10%	+6250%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$3,305
165-189	$0.002	4%	+2868%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$6,774
115-139	$0.010	16%	+1470%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$5,189
90-114	$0.040	20%	+398%	4.2%	cautela (no operable)	$3,123

Elon Musk # tweets August 6 - August 8, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 36 · proyeccion 54.3 ± 21.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
90-114	$0.002	5%	+3198%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$67,155
65-89	$0.018	27%	+1427%	6.4%	cautela (no operable)	$54,280
<40	$0.190	24%	+27%	1.6%	moderado	$79,798

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,326 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.3 ± 48.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.330	48%	+46%	5.7%	escalable	$0
80-99	$0.011	1%	+30%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$17

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 150.2 ± 39.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.003	18%	+5752%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$346
100-119	$0.004	12%	+3299%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$426
140-159	$0.028	20%	+618%	4.5%	cautela (no operable)	$581
160-179	$0.165	18%	+8%	0.4%	moderado	$658

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 106 · proyeccion 159.6 ± 25.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.004	16%	+3394%	3.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,029
100-119	$0.002	5%	+2291%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$463
140-159	$0.061	29%	+364%	6.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,710

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,052 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 205.2 ± 54.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.345	54%	+57%	7.5%	escalable	$0

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 143.2 ± 42.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.005	2%	+243%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$361
100-119	$0.073	14%	+86%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,044
60-79	$0.025	4%	+67%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$325
80-99	$0.053	8%	+60%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$567
20-39	$0.004	1%	+39%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$981

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 112 · proyeccion 178.4 ± 31.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.002	2%	+1449%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$4,064
140-159	$0.055	17%	+203%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,936
120-139	$0.033	8%	+134%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,504
160-179	$0.160	24%	+52%	2.5%	moderado	$2,158
180-199	$0.200	24%	+19%	1.2%	escalable	$2,627

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,467 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.3 ± 29.1

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 16 · proyeccion 113.4 ± 23.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.030	6%	+104%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$97
80-99	$0.125	20%	+62%	2.2%	moderado	$356
100-119	$0.275	33%	+19%	1.8%	escalable	$195

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 110 · proyeccion 151.3 ± 15.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.026	20%	+654%	4.5%	cautela (no operable)	$549
140-159	$0.190	49%	+157%	9.2%	moderado	$1,817

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,637 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.4 ± 19.1

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 5 · proyeccion 83.1 ± 15.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.105	14%	+29%	0.9%	moderado	$174

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 35 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 10.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.215	25%	+18%	1.2%	escalable	$1,733
40-59	$0.100	11%	+10%	0.3%	moderado	$356

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 798 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 56.0 ± 12.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.021	3%	+58%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$0
60-79	$0.245	36%	+46%	3.8%	escalable	$0

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 10.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.340	40%	+19%	2.4%	escalable	$2,808

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 6.9

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.3 ± 13.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.320	54%	+69%	8.1%	escalable	$0

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 10.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.018	5%	+153%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$95
20-39	$0.355	52%	+47%	6.5%	escalable	$754

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 15.7 ± 7.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.265	30%	+13%	1.2%	escalable	$2,562

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.7 ± 11.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
35-39	$0.011	1%	+32%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$12

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 9.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.013	6%	+350%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$82
10-14	$0.044	18%	+304%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$199
15-19	$0.042	12%	+179%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$83

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 6.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.006	3%	+467%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,293
10-14	$0.031	12%	+300%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,109