CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-09 05:17 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.16576%+360%17.8%moderado$3,568
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.15541%+162%7.4%moderado$24
Elon Musk65-89$0.11525%+121%3.9%moderado$27,238
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21546%+116%8.0%escalable$777
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.13024%+82%3.1%moderado$4,106
Donald Trump200+$0.23543%+81%6.2%escalable$1,010
Ted Cruz140-159$0.26546%+73%6.6%escalable$2,496
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.33057%+71%8.8%escalable$709
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.14522%+50%2.1%moderado$331
Donald Trump160-179$0.14521%+46%1.9%moderado$2,316
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.32044%+37%4.3%escalable$2,211
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.43058%+36%6.8%escalable$1,330
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 197 · proyeccion 1106.9 ± 152.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.16576%+360%17.8%moderado$3,568
Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 373.1 ± 97.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00210%+6418%2.4%cautela (no operable)$17,711
420-439$0.0027%+4505%1.7%cautela (no operable)$3,969
440-459$0.0026%+3908%1.5%cautela (no operable)$9,684
400-419$0.0048%+2074%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,829
380-399$0.0048%+1687%1.9%cautela (no operable)$755
360-379$0.0098%+758%1.8%cautela (no operable)$839
340-359$0.0118%+620%1.7%cautela (no operable)$865
320-339$0.0127%+515%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,168
300-319$0.0187%+267%1.2%cautela (no operable)$537
280-299$0.0266%+118%0.8%cautela (no operable)$3,414
Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 45 · proyeccion 265.3 ± 75.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0036%+2168%1.4%cautela (no operable)$31,041
360-379$0.0024%+1933%1.0%cautela (no operable)$30,743
320-339$0.0047%+1538%1.7%cautela (no operable)$30,812
380-399$0.0023%+1259%0.6%cautela (no operable)$33,459
300-319$0.0079%+1090%2.1%cautela (no operable)$21,391
280-299$0.01510%+594%2.2%cautela (no operable)$20,360
260-279$0.03611%+190%1.8%cautela (no operable)$10,892
100-119$0.0041%+176%0.2%cautela (no operable)$55,341
240-259$0.07510%+38%0.8%cautela (no operable)$7,364
120-139$0.0172%+26%0.1%cautela (no operable)$34,021
Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 135.6 ± 58.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00213%+6491%3.2%cautela (no operable)$617
140-164$0.00316%+6374%4.0%cautela (no operable)$602
190-214$0.0029%+4394%2.2%cautela (no operable)$149
240+$0.0024%+2488%0.9%cautela (no operable)$378
215-239$0.0025%+2466%1.2%cautela (no operable)$146
115-139$0.01117%+1484%3.9%cautela (no operable)$100
90-114$0.04514%+218%2.6%cautela (no operable)$261
Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 129 · proyeccion 222.8 ± 49.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0023%+2195%0.8%cautela (no operable)$75,864
280-299$0.0046%+1750%1.5%cautela (no operable)$72,077
260-279$0.00910%+987%2.4%cautela (no operable)$70,459
320-339$0.0022%+935%0.3%cautela (no operable)$56,707
240-259$0.03214%+344%2.8%cautela (no operable)$62,705
140-159$0.0195%+175%0.9%cautela (no operable)$98,336
220-239$0.07516%+114%2.3%cautela (no operable)$65,779
Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 50% del periodo
lleva 13 · proyeccion 68.6 ± 37.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.0048%+2229%2.0%cautela (no operable)$23,431
90-114$0.02018%+789%4.0%cautela (no operable)$29,533
65-89$0.11525%+121%3.9%moderado$27,238
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 184.8 ± 47.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0059%+1450%2.0%cautela (no operable)$102
100-119$0.0055%+766%1.1%cautela (no operable)$92
80-99$0.0052%+304%0.4%cautela (no operable)$129
140-159$0.03613%+255%2.4%cautela (no operable)$248
60-79$0.0051%+58%0.1%cautela (no operable)$159
160-179$0.15016%+7%0.3%moderado$419
White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 33 · proyeccion 149.5 ± 37.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00418%+5146%4.5%cautela (no operable)$374
100-119$0.00412%+3342%2.9%cautela (no operable)$439
140-159$0.02121%+906%4.9%cautela (no operable)$774
White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 118 · proyeccion 158.9 ± 22.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00415%+4256%3.7%cautela (no operable)$1,766
140-159$0.05632%+472%7.0%cautela (no operable)$4,842
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 189.8 ± 52.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.23543%+81%6.2%escalable$1,010
180-199$0.12515%+21%0.8%moderado$478
160-179$0.12514%+13%0.5%moderado$474
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 47 · proyeccion 156.3 ± 39.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0022%+858%0.4%cautela (no operable)$681
40-59$0.0021%+283%0.1%cautela (no operable)$633
100-119$0.03010%+236%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,218
80-99$0.0255%+95%0.6%cautela (no operable)$663
140-159$0.15520%+26%1.2%moderado$936
160-179$0.15519%+22%1.0%moderado$1,292
180-199$0.13014%+9%0.3%moderado$1,234
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 141 · proyeccion 191.4 ± 27.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0409%+128%1.3%cautela (no operable)$2,807
160-179$0.14521%+46%1.9%moderado$2,316
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 142.6 ± 28.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.09527%+184%4.8%cautela (no operable)$0
120-139$0.20025%+25%1.6%escalable$0
160-179$0.16518%+9%0.4%moderado$0
Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 33 · proyeccion 120.4 ± 22.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.07614%+84%1.7%cautela (no operable)$376
60-79$0.0223%+28%0.2%cautela (no operable)$97
Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 127 · proyeccion 158.3 ± 13.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0118%+554%1.6%cautela (no operable)$886
140-159$0.26546%+73%6.6%escalable$2,496
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.4 ± 18.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.07028%+302%5.6%cautela (no operable)$20
140-159$0.0187%+260%1.2%cautela (no operable)$12
100-119$0.15541%+162%7.4%moderado$24
Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 18 · proyeccion 88.9 ± 14.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.14522%+50%2.1%moderado$331
Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 48 · proyeccion 78.3 ± 9.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.32044%+37%4.3%escalable$2,211
40-59$0.0243%+7%0.0%cautela (no operable)$654
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.0 ± 12.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.07323%+219%4.3%cautela (no operable)$733
40-59$0.43058%+36%6.8%escalable$1,330
NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 9 · proyeccion 38.3 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0092%+146%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,369
40-59$0.36044%+22%3.1%escalable$3,290
NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 24 · proyeccion 34.9 ± 5.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.68579%+15%8.1%escalable$4,665
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.2 ± 12.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.02222%+886%5.1%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.33057%+71%8.8%escalable$709
CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0052%+320%0.4%cautela (no operable)$217
20-39$0.21546%+116%8.0%escalable$777
CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.5 ± 6.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.03518%+393%3.6%cautela (no operable)$2,924
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0052%+317%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.06014%+136%2.2%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0489%+98%1.2%cautela (no operable)$10
10-14$0.15017%+16%0.7%moderado$0
25-29$0.0465%+12%0.1%cautela (no operable)$70
Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03817%+349%3.5%cautela (no operable)$229
15-19$0.0329%+186%1.5%cautela (no operable)$113
20-24$0.0153%+128%0.5%cautela (no operable)$112
Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 71% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0146%+307%1.1%cautela (no operable)$2,398
5-9$0.13024%+82%3.1%moderado$4,106