Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.115 35% +205% 6.7% moderado $1,195 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.105 22% +106% 3.1% moderado $1,904 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.260 53% +104% 9.1% escalable $2,260 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.185 36% +94% 5.3% moderado $1,149 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.155 26% +66% 3.0% moderado $682 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.315 48% +52% 6.0% escalable $3,776 The White House 160-179 $0.156 20% +26% 1.2% moderado $2,071 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.495 62% +25% 6.2% escalable $2,262 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.395 47% +19% 3.0% escalable $4,698 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 40-59 $0.126 14% +9% 0.3% moderado $2,417
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,397 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 382 · proyeccion 962.2 ± 121.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.035 38% +985% 8.9% cautela (no operable) $7,032 960-999 $0.021 13% +529% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $10,780 920-959 $0.045 13% +182% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $5,151 880-919 $0.065 11% +76% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $4,795
lleva 45 · proyeccion 220.5 ± 67.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 7% +4576% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $48,920 260-279 $0.004 9% +1922% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $23,997 240-259 $0.009 11% +1172% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $17,255 80-99 $0.003 2% +612% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $83,848 220-239 $0.021 12% +447% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $13,580 200-219 $0.065 12% +80% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $17,700
lleva 144 · proyeccion 193.7 ± 35.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.003 7% +2577% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $113,275 220-239 $0.007 14% +1701% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $90,023 260-279 $0.002 2% +1527% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $97,129 200-219 $0.045 20% +346% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $100,410 140-159 $0.086 10% +22% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $248,146
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,553 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 45 · proyeccion 150.9 ± 34.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 11% +7456% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $750 140-159 $0.025 23% +789% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $1,112 160-179 $0.156 20% +26% 1.2% moderado $2,071
lleva 151 · proyeccion 180.4 ± 18.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.056 35% +539% 7.9% cautela (no operable) $9,421
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 153.7 ± 36.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 5% +833% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,673 120-139 $0.024 18% +630% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $761 100-119 $0.015 10% +600% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $982 140-159 $0.105 22% +106% 3.1% moderado $1,904
lleva 141 · proyeccion 173.2 ± 21.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.036 36% +886% 8.3% cautela (no operable) $6,817
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,670 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 54 · proyeccion 132.6 ± 21.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.061 21% +241% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $1,113 120-139 $0.115 35% +205% 6.7% moderado $1,195
lleva 151 · proyeccion 171.7 ± 11.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.055 14% +146% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $2,372 160-179 $0.495 62% +25% 6.2% escalable $2,262
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 76.2 ± 13.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.004 4% +884% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $569 80-99 $0.185 36% +94% 5.3% moderado $1,149
lleva 49 · proyeccion 68.0 ± 7.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.038 7% +86% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,951 40-59 $0.126 14% +9% 0.3% moderado $2,417
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 844 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.0 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.003 1% +248% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,824 40-59 $0.395 47% +19% 3.0% escalable $4,698
lleva 30 · proyeccion 36.7 ± 4.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 463 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.009 2% +114% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $473 20-39 $0.260 53% +104% 9.1% escalable $2,260
lleva 15 · proyeccion 19.3 ± 4.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.315 48% +52% 6.0% escalable $3,776
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 6% +981% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.050 16% +226% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.005 2% +225% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.155 26% +66% 3.0% moderado $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.3 ± 3.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.065 26% +294% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $2,803 10-14 $0.010 3% +218% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,247
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).