Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Donald Trump 140-159 $0.100 27% +170% 4.7% moderado $3,316 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.285 58% +103% 10.3% escalable $1,223 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.190 37% +97% 5.7% moderado $111 The White House 180-199 $0.195 38% +97% 5.9% moderado $11,651 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.320 58% +80% 9.5% escalable $3,753 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.355 48% +35% 4.8% escalable $852 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.325 43% +33% 3.9% escalable $566 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.165 21% +30% 1.5% moderado $13,431 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.175 21% +21% 1.1% moderado $254 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.245 29% +20% 1.6% escalable $222 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.149 17% +16% 0.7% moderado $2,738 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.320 36% +12% 1.4% escalable $5,337
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,301 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.7x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 290 · proyeccion 1015.0 ± 136.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.055 55% +891% 13.0% cautela (no operable) $5,355 960-999 $0.019 11% +478% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $8,638 920-959 $0.054 10% +85% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,043 880-919 $0.075 8% +9% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,445
lleva 0 · proyeccion 317.7 ± 90.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 5% +3415% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $2,554 360-379 $0.003 7% +2893% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $3,293 380-399 $0.004 6% +1739% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,680 320-339 $0.005 9% +1489% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $5,118 340-359 $0.005 8% +1406% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,959 500+ $0.002 2% +1376% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $18,263 300-319 $0.011 9% +698% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $7,475 280-299 $0.021 8% +309% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $5,061 260-279 $0.045 8% +70% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,544 80-99 $0.004 0% +5% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $16,013
lleva 52 · proyeccion 243.8 ± 70.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 5% +3505% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $16,510 340-359 $0.002 4% +2352% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $20,244 300-319 $0.004 7% +1734% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $29,656 280-299 $0.005 9% +1569% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $24,902 360-379 $0.002 2% +1439% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $23,217 260-279 $0.009 11% +1016% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $19,416 240-259 $0.022 11% +402% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $10,720 100-119 $0.004 2% +309% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $47,799 220-239 $0.075 11% +48% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $9,293
lleva 0 · proyeccion 81.7 ± 45.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 7% +4454% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $11,031 115-139 $0.005 13% +2329% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $10,968 165-189 $0.002 3% +1642% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $9,305 90-114 $0.029 20% +586% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $17,699 65-89 $0.165 21% +30% 1.5% moderado $13,431
lleva 138 · proyeccion 178.4 ± 32.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.002 7% +4720% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $154,533 200-219 $0.013 16% +1096% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $157,912 180-199 $0.075 23% +207% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $186,424
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,473 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.4x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 167.6 ± 43.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 8% +1280% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $180 120-139 $0.011 12% +1032% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $154 80-99 $0.005 4% +585% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $296 140-159 $0.025 17% +579% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $150 60-79 $0.005 2% +177% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $329 160-179 $0.095 18% +90% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $286
lleva 81 · proyeccion 172.2 ± 32.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.002 19% +12671% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $2,542 160-179 $0.008 24% +2934% 5.9% cautela (no operable) $2,860
lleva 178 · proyeccion 200.3 ± 15.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.195 38% +97% 5.9% moderado $11,651
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,182 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.4% Sobre-dispersion: 14.32x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 156.0 ± 47.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 1% +816% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $509 60-79 $0.006 3% +395% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $100 80-99 $0.043 6% +45% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $232 120-139 $0.135 14% +6% 0.2% moderado $103
lleva 57 · proyeccion 153.7 ± 37.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 2% +481% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,887 80-99 $0.009 5% +451% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,648 100-119 $0.044 11% +142% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,361 120-139 $0.095 17% +82% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $988
lleva 151 · proyeccion 167.3 ± 15.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.100 27% +170% 4.7% moderado $3,316 160-179 $0.450 48% +7% 1.5% escalable $3,922
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,576 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.48x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 127.5 ± 26.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 3% +439% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $18 140-159 $0.175 21% +21% 1.1% moderado $254 120-139 $0.245 29% +20% 1.6% escalable $222
lleva 65 · proyeccion 135.3 ± 19.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.066 18% +167% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $553 120-139 $0.190 37% +97% 5.7% moderado $111 140-159 $0.275 31% +12% 1.1% escalable $1,045
lleva 133 · proyeccion 148.1 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.085 10% +22% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $2,619 120-139 $0.149 17% +16% 0.7% moderado $2,738
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,688 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 93.8 ± 17.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.009 6% +625% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $266 100-119 $0.055 30% +452% 6.6% cautela (no operable) $447 80-99 $0.325 43% +33% 3.9% escalable $566
lleva 28 · proyeccion 81.3 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.355 48% +35% 4.8% escalable $852 100-119 $0.069 8% +11% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $160
lleva 60 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.056 13% +140% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $1,840
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 823 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 44.7 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.320 58% +80% 9.5% escalable $3,753
lleva 10 · proyeccion 36.4 ± 8.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.013 3% +101% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $2,977 40-59 $0.320 36% +12% 1.4% escalable $5,337
lleva 29 · proyeccion 33.9 ± 3.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.045 7% +57% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $6,972
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 453 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3% Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.8 ± 11.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 12% +1056% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.285 58% +103% 10.3% escalable $1,223
lleva 9 · proyeccion 23.3 ± 8.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.595 63% +6% 2.4% escalable $2,605
lleva 9 · proyeccion 12.9 ± 4.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.011 7% +546% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,020
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.1 ± 10.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.051 14% +181% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.085 18% +112% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $325 20-24 $0.071 9% +26% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.8 ± 8.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.015 18% +1093% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $391 20-24 $0.005 4% +679% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $283 15-19 $0.016 10% +519% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $274 25-29 $0.008 1% +36% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $272
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.9 ± 4.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.043 28% +561% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $1,353 10-14 $0.022 8% +256% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $637
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.