Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.150 73% +389% 17.2% moderado $4,229 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.120 40% +234% 8.0% moderado $74 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.135 41% +206% 8.0% moderado $777 The White House 140-159 $0.137 34% +151% 6.0% moderado $5,539 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.100 21% +112% 3.1% moderado $4,979 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.130 26% +99% 3.7% moderado $2,430 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.325 58% +78% 9.3% escalable $757 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.105 18% +70% 2.1% moderado $1,468 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.105 18% +67% 2.0% moderado $0 Donald Trump 200+ $0.245 36% +45% 3.7% escalable $1,030 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.180 26% +44% 2.4% moderado $216 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.430 60% +39% 7.3% escalable $1,350
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,222 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 207 · proyeccion 1093.4 ± 150.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.150 73% +389% 17.2% moderado $4,229 960-999 $0.064 8% +25% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $2,968
lleva 0 · proyeccion 350.4 ± 94.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 420-439 $0.002 6% +3862% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $4,079 500+ $0.002 6% +3739% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $20,143 400-419 $0.003 7% +2672% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,258 380-399 $0.003 8% +2476% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,062 360-379 $0.007 8% +1000% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $983 340-359 $0.009 8% +890% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $965 320-339 $0.009 8% +764% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,528 300-319 $0.017 8% +365% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,434 280-299 $0.026 7% +163% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,646 260-279 $0.055 6% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $478
lleva 55 · proyeccion 253.0 ± 71.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 4% +2889% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $39,802 320-339 $0.003 6% +1999% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $40,906 300-319 $0.004 8% +1716% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $27,141 380-399 $0.002 2% +1098% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $33,965 280-299 $0.011 10% +834% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $23,795 260-279 $0.030 11% +263% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $12,954 100-119 $0.005 1% +169% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $59,319 240-259 $0.065 11% +72% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $10,265 120-139 $0.019 2% +28% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $51,823
lleva 0 · proyeccion 113.3 ± 53.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 9% +6056% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $711 140-164 $0.003 14% +5600% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $662 115-139 $0.016 18% +1012% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $1,053 90-114 $0.045 18% +299% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $507
lleva 139 · proyeccion 210.5 ± 42.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 3% +2201% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $93,822 260-279 $0.004 7% +1511% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $86,225 240-259 $0.017 12% +644% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $86,531 140-159 $0.015 7% +370% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $121,172 220-239 $0.045 17% +273% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $80,276
lleva 23 · proyeccion 56.3 ± 29.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.005 10% +1986% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $56,411 65-89 $0.060 26% +336% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $52,083
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,343 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 179.2 ± 46.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 10% +1664% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $120 100-119 $0.005 6% +918% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $120 80-99 $0.005 3% +389% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $139 140-159 $0.070 14% +101% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $268 60-79 $0.005 1% +95% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $169
lleva 38 · proyeccion 149.0 ± 36.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 19% +5275% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $414 100-119 $0.003 12% +3961% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $453 140-159 $0.032 22% +587% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $1,046
lleva 123 · proyeccion 158.4 ± 20.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 15% +3639% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $1,770 140-159 $0.137 34% +151% 6.0% moderado $5,539
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,086 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.43x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 180.7 ± 51.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.245 36% +45% 3.7% escalable $1,030 20-39 $0.002 0% +37% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $567 60-79 $0.012 1% +25% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $197 160-179 $0.125 15% +21% 0.8% moderado $474 180-199 $0.140 15% +9% 0.4% moderado $555
lleva 50 · proyeccion 150.4 ± 38.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.007 6% +749% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $671 60-79 $0.005 2% +356% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $917 40-59 $0.002 1% +346% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,343 100-119 $0.036 12% +223% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $1,353 120-139 $0.105 18% +70% 2.1% moderado $1,468 140-159 $0.170 21% +22% 1.1% moderado $936 160-179 $0.165 18% +11% 0.5% moderado $1,359
lleva 144 · proyeccion 185.5 ± 24.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.018 11% +516% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $3,133 160-179 $0.130 26% +99% 3.7% moderado $2,430
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,488 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 138.1 ± 27.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.050 15% +204% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.180 26% +44% 2.4% moderado $216 120-139 $0.200 27% +35% 2.2% escalable $0 180-199 $0.045 5% +20% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $0
lleva 37 · proyeccion 120.0 ± 21.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.018 3% +51% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $124 80-99 $0.104 14% +34% 1.0% moderado $417 120-139 $0.285 33% +15% 1.5% escalable $373 100-119 $0.285 32% +13% 1.3% escalable $344
lleva 131 · proyeccion 157.9 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 7% +4254% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $960 140-159 $0.415 49% +17% 3.0% escalable $2,714
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,652 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.7 ± 17.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.120 40% +234% 8.0% moderado $74 120-139 $0.049 15% +212% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $40
lleva 20 · proyeccion 81.6 ± 13.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.365 46% +27% 3.9% escalable $657
lleva 50 · proyeccion 71.1 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.130 15% +12% 0.5% moderado $2,398
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 807 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 49.0 ± 12.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.026 18% +593% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $753 40-59 $0.430 60% +39% 7.3% escalable $1,350
lleva 12 · proyeccion 39.3 ± 8.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +196% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,453 40-59 $0.425 48% +13% 2.3% escalable $3,933
lleva 27 · proyeccion 35.9 ± 5.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.715 76% +6% 4.0% escalable $5,133
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.6 ± 12.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.023 19% +705% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.325 58% +78% 9.3% escalable $757
lleva 0 · proyeccion 17.7 ± 9.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.135 41% +206% 8.0% moderado $777 40-59 $0.006 1% +113% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $358
lleva 6 · proyeccion 12.0 ± 5.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.029 9% +220% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $3,084
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.0 ± 10.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.005 2% +260% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $12 15-19 $0.045 14% +210% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $0 20-24 $0.050 9% +79% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $11 10-14 $0.105 18% +67% 2.0% moderado $0 25-29 $0.043 5% +9% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.075 17% +124% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $319 20-24 $0.017 3% +67% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $117 15-19 $0.065 8% +26% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $128
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.5 ± 4.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.014 3% +133% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $2,910 5-9 $0.100 21% +112% 3.1% moderado $4,979
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.