CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-09 22:01 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.13574%+446%17.4%moderado$4,239
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12540%+216%7.7%moderado$74
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.13539%+190%7.4%moderado$777
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.32058%+81%9.6%escalable$777
Ted Cruz100-119$0.17531%+79%4.2%moderado$344
Ted Cruz140-159$0.18025%+41%2.3%moderado$216
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.43060%+39%7.4%escalable$1,350
Ted Cruz120-139$0.20028%+38%2.4%escalable$0
Donald Trump200+$0.24532%+33%2.6%escalable$1,103
Donald Trump160-179$0.19024%+29%1.7%moderado$2,735
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.35545%+28%3.9%escalable$657
Donald Trump120-139$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$1,531
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 213 · proyeccion 1094.5 ± 150.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.13574%+446%17.4%moderado$4,239
960-999$0.0648%+25%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,978
lleva 0 · proyeccion 345.5 ± 94.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
420-439$0.0026%+3694%1.4%cautela (no operable)$4,079
500+$0.0025%+3273%1.2%cautela (no operable)$20,143
400-419$0.0037%+2590%1.6%cautela (no operable)$5,258
380-399$0.0048%+2071%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,266
360-379$0.0078%+994%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,083
340-359$0.0088%+958%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,175
320-339$0.0098%+779%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,528
300-319$0.0178%+363%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,034
280-299$0.0297%+141%1.1%cautela (no operable)$5,612
260-279$0.0556%+11%0.2%cautela (no operable)$511
lleva 61 · proyeccion 254.1 ± 70.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0025%+2919%1.1%cautela (no operable)$40,514
320-339$0.0036%+2455%1.5%cautela (no operable)$41,718
300-319$0.0048%+1747%2.0%cautela (no operable)$27,251
280-299$0.01110%+850%2.3%cautela (no operable)$25,122
100-119$0.0031%+452%0.3%cautela (no operable)$60,693
260-279$0.03011%+268%2.1%cautela (no operable)$13,483
120-139$0.0132%+76%0.3%cautela (no operable)$52,644
240-259$0.07511%+51%1.0%cautela (no operable)$11,028
lleva 0 · proyeccion 108.4 ± 52.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.0028%+5336%2.0%cautela (no operable)$731
140-164$0.00313%+5261%3.3%cautela (no operable)$682
115-139$0.01718%+970%4.1%cautela (no operable)$1,058
90-114$0.04519%+314%3.7%cautela (no operable)$612
lleva 145 · proyeccion 211.5 ± 41.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0023%+2114%0.8%cautela (no operable)$94,552
260-279$0.0047%+1978%1.7%cautela (no operable)$87,558
140-159$0.0056%+1163%1.5%cautela (no operable)$137,692
240-259$0.01513%+772%2.8%cautela (no operable)$88,119
220-239$0.05317%+226%3.2%cautela (no operable)$83,979
lleva 29 · proyeccion 57.3 ± 26.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.00410%+2734%2.4%cautela (no operable)$57,991
65-89$0.06528%+329%5.7%cautela (no operable)$56,145
<40$0.20024%+19%1.2%escalable$68,430
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.7 ± 45.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00610%+1607%2.4%cautela (no operable)$120
100-119$0.0066%+901%1.4%cautela (no operable)$120
80-99$0.0063%+387%0.6%cautela (no operable)$139
60-79$0.0061%+96%0.1%cautela (no operable)$169
140-159$0.07914%+84%1.8%cautela (no operable)$268
lleva 46 · proyeccion 154.6 ± 36.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.00310%+3297%2.5%cautela (no operable)$453
120-139$0.00717%+2367%4.2%cautela (no operable)$651
140-159$0.04022%+448%4.6%cautela (no operable)$1,250
lleva 131 · proyeccion 164.0 ± 19.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00810%+1102%2.2%cautela (no operable)$2,488
140-159$0.03730%+716%6.9%cautela (no operable)$6,590
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.43x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.6 ± 50.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0020%+59%0.0%cautela (no operable)$567
40-59$0.0041%+53%0.1%cautela (no operable)$121
200+$0.24532%+33%2.6%escalable$1,103
180-199$0.14015%+9%0.3%moderado$570
lleva 57 · proyeccion 153.2 ± 37.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0052%+260%0.3%cautela (no operable)$917
40-59$0.0020%+221%0.1%cautela (no operable)$3,928
100-119$0.03711%+188%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,660
80-99$0.0185%+182%0.8%cautela (no operable)$682
120-139$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$1,531
lleva 151 · proyeccion 188.4 ± 23.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0269%+243%1.6%cautela (no operable)$3,507
160-179$0.19024%+29%1.7%moderado$2,735
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 136.4 ± 27.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.05014%+184%2.4%cautela (no operable)$0
60-79$0.0062%+157%0.3%cautela (no operable)$493
140-159$0.18025%+41%2.3%moderado$216
120-139$0.20028%+38%2.4%escalable$0
180-199$0.0455%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 40 · proyeccion 121.3 ± 21.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.17531%+79%4.2%moderado$344
80-99$0.09113%+40%1.0%cautela (no operable)$417
60-79$0.0182%+26%0.1%cautela (no operable)$124
120-139$0.28534%+19%1.9%escalable$383
lleva 134 · proyeccion 159.2 ± 11.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0025%+3060%1.1%cautela (no operable)$960
140-159$0.42046%+10%1.8%escalable$2,781
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.0 ± 17.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12540%+216%7.7%moderado$74
120-139$0.04914%+194%2.5%cautela (no operable)$40
lleva 20 · proyeccion 80.9 ± 13.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.35545%+28%3.9%escalable$657
lleva 50 · proyeccion 70.3 ± 7.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 48.3 ± 11.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.02717%+525%3.6%cautela (no operable)$753
40-59$0.43060%+39%7.4%escalable$1,350
lleva 12 · proyeccion 38.6 ± 8.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0042%+233%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,453
40-59$0.41045%+10%1.8%escalable$3,933
lleva 27 · proyeccion 35.2 ± 4.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.1 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01917%+805%3.9%cautela (no operable)$20
20-39$0.32058%+81%9.6%escalable$777
lleva 0 · proyeccion 17.1 ± 9.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.13539%+190%7.4%moderado$777
40-59$0.0061%+66%0.1%cautela (no operable)$358
lleva 6 · proyeccion 11.4 ± 5.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0257%+182%1.1%cautela (no operable)$3,084
<20$0.85192%+8%11.1%escalable$2,601
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.9 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+218%0.3%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.04514%+208%2.5%cautela (no operable)$0
10-14$0.08018%+120%2.6%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0509%+77%1.0%cautela (no operable)$11
25-29$0.0435%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.8 ± 8.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.04317%+283%3.2%cautela (no operable)$319
15-19$0.0358%+131%1.2%cautela (no operable)$128
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.4 ± 4.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.08520%+140%3.2%cautela (no operable)$5,072
10-14$0.0113%+137%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,952