Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.250 58% +132% 11.0% escalable $1,246 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.105 24% +126% 3.7% moderado $10,765 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.140 30% +112% 4.5% moderado $452 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.120 25% +108% 3.7% moderado $74 The White House 160-179 $0.125 25% +101% 3.6% moderado $2,911 The White House 160-179 $0.290 50% +71% 7.2% escalable $13,848 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $99 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.355 53% +50% 6.9% escalable $3,667 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.190 25% +29% 1.7% moderado $749 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.325 40% +23% 2.8% escalable $568 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.415 49% +19% 3.3% escalable $4,366 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.210 24% +15% 1.0% escalable $1,369
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,247 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 232 · proyeccion 1068.1 ± 146.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.080 68% +751% 16.3% cautela (no operable) $4,582 960-999 $0.037 9% +145% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $4,106 920-959 $0.065 7% +15% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $2,442
lleva 0 · proyeccion 301.2 ± 87.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 5% +3553% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $4,920 400-419 $0.002 4% +2733% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $10,775 360-379 $0.004 7% +1817% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $2,408 440-459 $0.002 2% +1360% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $10,750 320-339 $0.006 9% +1335% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,197 340-359 $0.005 8% +1318% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,694 500+ $0.002 1% +695% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $23,459 300-319 $0.015 9% +483% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,418 280-299 $0.025 9% +267% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $7,981 260-279 $0.045 8% +89% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,207 80-99 $0.004 0% +43% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $17,975
lleva 0 · proyeccion 190.6 ± 69.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240+ $0.002 24% +16036% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $252 190-214 $0.002 14% +6911% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $38 165-189 $0.002 14% +6870% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $561 215-239 $0.002 12% +6112% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $38 140-164 $0.002 12% +6005% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $561 115-139 $0.006 9% +1349% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $560 90-114 $0.045 6% +42% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $69
lleva 80 · proyeccion 229.3 ± 61.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 4% +2231% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $45,401 300-319 $0.003 6% +2133% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $41,020 280-299 $0.004 8% +1909% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $42,438 260-279 $0.009 10% +998% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $25,509 240-259 $0.025 12% +378% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $20,787 100-119 $0.009 2% +135% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $74,234 220-239 $0.075 13% +71% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $19,586
lleva 5 · proyeccion 69.6 ± 40.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.003 9% +2969% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $6,702 140-164 $0.002 3% +2104% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $3,954 90-114 $0.009 18% +1770% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $9,417 65-89 $0.105 24% +126% 3.7% moderado $10,765
lleva 164 · proyeccion 186.8 ± 24.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.002 7% +4781% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $148,388 200-219 $0.021 21% +884% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $166,080
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,391 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.81x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.6 ± 42.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 16% +3532% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $605 100-119 $0.005 12% +2200% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $605 80-99 $0.005 6% +1199% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $634 140-159 $0.029 19% +533% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $885 60-79 $0.005 3% +489% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $654 160-179 $0.155 17% +10% 0.5% moderado $1,097
lleva 87 · proyeccion 169.8 ± 31.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.017 20% +1104% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $1,880 120-139 $0.041 11% +174% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,142 160-179 $0.125 25% +101% 3.6% moderado $2,911
lleva 172 · proyeccion 179.2 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.007 1% +86% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $14,500 160-179 $0.290 50% +71% 7.2% escalable $13,848
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,125 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 148.6 ± 46.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 2% +797% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,050 60-79 $0.007 4% +442% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $342 20-39 $0.002 1% +339% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,398 80-99 $0.040 8% +92% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,021 120-139 $0.145 16% +8% 0.4% moderado $287
lleva 90 · proyeccion 158.1 ± 31.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 2% +517% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $2,277 100-119 $0.013 8% +502% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $2,145 120-139 $0.075 17% +123% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $2,057 140-159 $0.210 24% +15% 1.0% escalable $1,369
lleva 184 · proyeccion 193.2 ± 11.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,514 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 117.6 ± 25.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.021 6% +168% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $511 80-99 $0.160 17% +7% 0.3% moderado $200
lleva 63 · proyeccion 125.2 ± 18.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.140 30% +112% 4.5% moderado $452 80-99 $0.040 8% +90% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $439 120-139 $0.325 40% +23% 2.8% escalable $568
lleva 157 · proyeccion 163.1 ± 5.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.065 27% +312% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $4,551
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,662 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.2 ± 16.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.120 25% +108% 3.7% moderado $74 120-139 $0.025 4% +54% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $90 80-99 $0.405 45% +12% 2.0% escalable $247
lleva 30 · proyeccion 79.2 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.045 5% +18% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,820 80-99 $0.405 44% +9% 1.5% escalable $958
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.6 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 42.1 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.355 53% +50% 6.9% escalable $3,667 <20 $0.019 2% +9% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $746
lleva 19 · proyeccion 39.5 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.415 49% +19% 3.3% escalable $4,366 <20 $0.004 0% +9% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,660
lleva 34 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 2.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.066 8% +22% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $6,570
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.6 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 12% +1709% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $368 20-39 $0.250 58% +132% 11.0% escalable $1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 14.7 ± 8.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.055 29% +428% 6.2% cautela (no operable) $992
lleva 6 · proyeccion 9.0 ± 4.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.3 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 2% +153% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $100 15-19 $0.055 13% +145% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $88 20-24 $0.035 8% +136% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $100 10-14 $0.110 18% +62% 1.9% moderado $99
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.029 16% +432% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $470 15-19 $0.029 7% +125% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $279 20-24 $0.012 2% +47% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $275 5-9 $0.190 25% +29% 1.7% moderado $749
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.8 ± 3.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.040 13% +227% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $6,311 10-14 $0.003 0% +73% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $3,644
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).