Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.185 46% +150% 8.5% moderado $1,056 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.140 34% +140% 5.7% moderado $1,451 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.120 29% +139% 4.7% moderado $2,433 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.105 20% +92% 2.7% moderado $4,463 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.305 54% +76% 8.3% escalable $2,199 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.275 46% +66% 6.3% escalable $1,052 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.300 40% +34% 3.7% escalable $4,155 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.395 53% +34% 5.5% escalable $3,364 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.205 25% +22% 1.4% escalable $584 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.165 19% +16% 0.8% moderado $1,520 Ted Cruz 180-199 $0.290 33% +15% 1.5% escalable $373 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.275 31% +13% 1.2% escalable $625
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,361 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 348 · proyeccion 987.8 ± 128.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 46% +672% 10.7% cautela (no operable) $6,478 960-999 $0.022 12% +451% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $9,396 920-959 $0.056 12% +107% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,524
lleva 11 · proyeccion 244.4 ± 77.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 7% +3517% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $41,883 340-359 $0.002 4% +2636% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $35,742 320-339 $0.003 6% +2153% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $49,138 280-299 $0.005 9% +1638% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $19,222 260-279 $0.011 10% +749% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $7,732 60-79 $0.002 1% +438% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $18,751 240-259 $0.022 10% +356% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $6,253 80-99 $0.004 1% +250% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $47,741 220-239 $0.055 10% +84% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $5,241
lleva 110 · proyeccion 217.5 ± 52.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.004 9% +2559% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $67,568 300-319 $0.002 3% +2107% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $70,272 280-299 $0.004 6% +1604% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $69,667 240-259 $0.011 13% +994% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $62,513 120-139 $0.011 4% +258% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $128,433 220-239 $0.045 15% +227% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $40,001
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,527 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 26 · proyeccion 151.2 ± 37.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 21% +4079% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $588 120-139 $0.005 18% +3461% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $533 100-119 $0.005 12% +2205% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $571 80-99 $0.004 6% +1317% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $747 60-79 $0.004 2% +429% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $781 160-179 $0.044 19% +323% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $936
lleva 132 · proyeccion 180.6 ± 23.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.011 30% +2482% 7.2% cautela (no operable) $4,942
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,255 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 52 · proyeccion 172.4 ± 41.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.090 11% +25% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $697 160-179 $0.165 19% +16% 0.8% moderado $1,520 100-119 $0.059 6% +5% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $628
lleva 131 · proyeccion 191.9 ± 29.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.105 20% +92% 2.7% moderado $4,463 140-159 $0.075 10% +31% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $3,001
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,655 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 39 · proyeccion 136.1 ± 24.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.275 31% +13% 1.2% escalable $625
lleva 136 · proyeccion 175.2 ± 15.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 1% +391% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,267 140-159 $0.050 14% +185% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $2,058 160-179 $0.275 46% +66% 6.3% escalable $1,052 180-199 $0.290 33% +15% 1.5% escalable $373
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,701 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 13 · proyeccion 83.6 ± 15.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 14% +1209% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $562 80-99 $0.185 46% +150% 8.5% moderado $1,056 120-139 $0.004 1% +143% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $322
lleva 45 · proyeccion 75.5 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.140 34% +140% 5.7% moderado $1,451 100-119 $0.006 1% +27% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $214
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 833 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 9.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.021 3% +55% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,240 40-59 $0.300 40% +34% 3.7% escalable $4,155 60-79 $0.009 1% +23% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,444
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.1 ± 6.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 460 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.009 4% +335% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.305 54% +76% 8.3% escalable $2,199
lleva 12 · proyeccion 20.0 ± 6.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.395 53% +34% 5.5% escalable $3,364
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.1 ± 7.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 8% +1480% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 2% +374% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $180 10-14 $0.080 17% +116% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $372 5-9 $0.205 25% +22% 1.4% escalable $584
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.9 ± 4.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.007 7% +813% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,081 5-9 $0.120 29% +139% 4.7% moderado $2,433 15-19 $0.004 1% +57% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $901
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.