CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.205	55%	+170%	11.0%	escalable	$2,173
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.230	57%	+149%	11.1%	escalable	$968
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.120	22%	+81%	2.8%	moderado	$6,604
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.170	29%	+70%	3.6%	moderado	$1,100
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.105	18%	+70%	2.0%	moderado	$325
Elon Musk	200-219	$0.111	18%	+62%	1.9%	moderado	$95,463
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.270	42%	+56%	5.2%	escalable	$5,058
Donald Trump	200+	$0.175	27%	+53%	2.8%	moderado	$575
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.240	36%	+49%	3.9%	escalable	$89
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.205	30%	+48%	3.1%	escalable	$2,305
Donald Trump	180-199	$0.195	26%	+35%	2.1%	moderado	$3,837
The White House	180-199	$0.280	37%	+31%	3.0%	escalable	$8,810

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,294 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 39% del periodo

lleva 280 · proyeccion 1038.7 ± 139.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.050	61%	+1121%	14.8%	cautela (no operable)	$5,141
960-999	$0.029	10%	+254%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$8,278
920-959	$0.053	9%	+66%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$3,796

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 351.0 ± 94.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
400-419	$0.002	7%	+4531%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$2,514
420-439	$0.002	6%	+3879%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,678
500+	$0.002	6%	+3816%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$17,204
360-379	$0.004	8%	+2254%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,940
380-399	$0.004	8%	+1833%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,210
320-339	$0.007	8%	+1069%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$4,765
340-359	$0.008	8%	+949%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,792
300-319	$0.012	8%	+536%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$3,122
280-299	$0.023	7%	+196%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$4,961
260-279	$0.055	6%	+6%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,420

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 42 · proyeccion 266.7 ± 75.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
340-359	$0.002	6%	+2798%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$13,393
320-339	$0.004	7%	+2030%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$12,810
360-379	$0.002	4%	+2004%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$16,889
300-319	$0.009	9%	+952%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$21,289
280-299	$0.017	10%	+490%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$18,810
260-279	$0.034	10%	+213%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$11,776
100-119	$0.006	1%	+91%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$43,001
240-259	$0.085	10%	+20%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$7,456
120-139	$0.019	2%	+9%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$33,195

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 114.6 ± 54.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
165-189	$0.002	10%	+6235%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$5,002
140-164	$0.003	14%	+5671%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$9,728
115-139	$0.009	18%	+1991%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$6,422
90-114	$0.046	18%	+286%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$14,049

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 128 · proyeccion 201.3 ± 43.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
260-279	$0.002	5%	+3499%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$105,435
240-259	$0.004	10%	+2106%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$134,331
120-139	$0.004	5%	+1256%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$239,768
220-239	$0.029	15%	+402%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$95,453
200-219	$0.111	18%	+62%	1.9%	moderado	$95,463

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,454 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.49x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 182.2 ± 45.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.005	5%	+807%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$154
120-139	$0.021	9%	+329%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$154
80-99	$0.005	2%	+317%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$254
140-159	$0.045	13%	+199%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$132
160-179	$0.085	17%	+96%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$286
60-79	$0.005	1%	+59%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$290

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 59 · proyeccion 164.9 ± 34.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.002	21%	+13574%	5.1%	cautela (no operable)	$2,515
160-179	$0.011	22%	+2031%	5.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,822

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 156 · proyeccion 193.0 ± 20.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.016	20%	+1173%	4.8%	cautela (no operable)	$4,993
180-199	$0.280	37%	+31%	3.0%	escalable	$8,810

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,154 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 168.8 ± 49.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.002	1%	+500%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$484
60-79	$0.006	2%	+235%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$100
80-99	$0.025	4%	+76%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$232
200+	$0.175	27%	+53%	2.8%	moderado	$575
160-179	$0.150	16%	+7%	0.3%	moderado	$515

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 48 · proyeccion 158.0 ± 39.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.003	2%	+490%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$758
80-99	$0.011	5%	+305%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,439
100-119	$0.051	10%	+90%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,352
40-59	$0.004	1%	+50%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,443
120-139	$0.130	15%	+19%	0.7%	moderado	$942
140-159	$0.170	19%	+14%	0.7%	moderado	$1,132

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 142 · proyeccion 171.7 ± 20.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.095	22%	+130%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,760
180-199	$0.195	26%	+35%	2.1%	moderado	$3,837

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,561 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 139.4 ± 27.7

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 50 · proyeccion 132.4 ± 21.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.003	1%	+105%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$793
120-139	$0.240	36%	+49%	3.9%	escalable	$89
80-99	$0.050	5%	+9%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$275

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 118 · proyeccion 145.2 ± 12.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.205	30%	+48%	3.1%	escalable	$2,305

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,679 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.4 ± 17.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.015	15%	+897%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$266
100-119	$0.074	40%	+433%	8.7%	cautela (no operable)	$442
140-159	$0.005	2%	+254%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$291

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 17 · proyeccion 78.9 ± 13.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.043	7%	+53%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$160
80-99	$0.365	42%	+14%	2.0%	escalable	$604

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 49 · proyeccion 70.2 ± 8.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.085	13%	+49%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,519

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 818 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 49.2 ± 12.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.060	19%	+218%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,845
40-59	$0.470	59%	+26%	5.9%	escalable	$2,145
80-99	$0.005	1%	+7%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$702

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 7 · proyeccion 37.9 ± 9.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.270	42%	+56%	5.2%	escalable	$5,058

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 26 · proyeccion 35.4 ± 5.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.120	22%	+81%	2.8%	moderado	$6,604

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 452 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.3 ± 12.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.011	20%	+1716%	4.8%	cautela (no operable)	$256
20-39	$0.230	57%	+149%	11.1%	escalable	$968
60-79	$0.005	1%	+48%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$215

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 21.7 ± 9.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.205	55%	+170%	11.0%	escalable	$2,173

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 11.2 ± 6.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.013	9%	+623%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,020

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.5 ± 10.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.048	14%	+203%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$40
10-14	$0.105	18%	+70%	2.0%	moderado	$325
20-24	$0.069	9%	+37%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$30

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.2 ± 8.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.005	5%	+810%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$278
10-14	$0.034	18%	+442%	3.8%	cautela (no operable)	$316
15-19	$0.025	11%	+318%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$269

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.3 ± 5.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.032	10%	+224%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$606
5-9	$0.170	29%	+70%	3.6%	moderado	$1,100
15-19	$0.012	2%	+35%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$408