CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-10 02:59 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.13572%+435%17.0%moderado$4,239
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12539%+215%7.7%moderado$74
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.13037%+185%6.9%moderado$798
Donald Trump160-179$0.12024%+101%3.4%moderado$3,070
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.31558%+85%9.7%escalable$792
Ted Cruz100-119$0.19032%+69%4.1%moderado$348
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.10518%+68%2.0%moderado$0
Ted Cruz140-159$0.17024%+44%2.2%moderado$216
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.42560%+40%7.4%escalable$1,350
Donald Trump120-139$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$1,531
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.36545%+23%3.4%escalable$657
Donald Trump140-159$0.17521%+23%1.2%moderado$959
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 214 · proyeccion 1087.6 ± 149.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.13572%+435%17.0%moderado$4,239
960-999$0.0688%+21%0.4%cautela (no operable)$3,782
lleva 0 · proyeccion 337.6 ± 92.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
420-439$0.0025%+3411%1.3%cautela (no operable)$4,079
500+$0.0024%+2613%1.0%cautela (no operable)$20,321
400-419$0.0036%+2445%1.5%cautela (no operable)$5,258
380-399$0.0047%+1531%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,266
360-379$0.0078%+978%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,083
340-359$0.0088%+963%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,175
320-339$0.0099%+799%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,528
300-319$0.0178%+396%1.7%cautela (no operable)$2,146
280-299$0.0308%+150%1.2%cautela (no operable)$5,612
260-279$0.0557%+19%0.3%cautela (no operable)$511
lleva 62 · proyeccion 247.3 ± 68.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0024%+2475%0.9%cautela (no operable)$41,226
320-339$0.0036%+2174%1.4%cautela (no operable)$41,718
300-319$0.0048%+1611%1.8%cautela (no operable)$31,593
280-299$0.00910%+1028%2.2%cautela (no operable)$26,021
260-279$0.02611%+314%2.1%cautela (no operable)$14,466
100-119$0.0042%+251%0.3%cautela (no operable)$61,735
240-259$0.06512%+78%1.4%cautela (no operable)$12,075
120-139$0.0193%+38%0.2%cautela (no operable)$54,082
lleva 0 · proyeccion 100.6 ± 50.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00312%+4605%2.9%cautela (no operable)$682
165-189$0.0026%+4163%1.6%cautela (no operable)$831
115-139$0.01317%+1211%4.0%cautela (no operable)$1,061
90-114$0.04519%+333%3.9%cautela (no operable)$625
lleva 146 · proyeccion 204.7 ± 38.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0035%+1629%1.2%cautela (no operable)$94,171
280-299$0.0022%+1205%0.5%cautela (no operable)$94,863
240-259$0.01011%+960%2.4%cautela (no operable)$91,226
140-159$0.0078%+906%1.7%cautela (no operable)$144,460
220-239$0.03617%+357%3.4%cautela (no operable)$86,003
lleva 30 · proyeccion 50.5 ± 22.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.0034%+1570%1.0%cautela (no operable)$61,520
65-89$0.02423%+863%5.2%cautela (no operable)$61,022
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.9x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 173.2 ± 45.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00611%+1742%2.6%cautela (no operable)$120
100-119$0.0067%+1003%1.5%cautela (no operable)$120
80-99$0.0063%+446%0.7%cautela (no operable)$139
140-159$0.05715%+167%2.5%cautela (no operable)$268
60-79$0.0061%+123%0.2%cautela (no operable)$169
lleva 49 · proyeccion 153.9 ± 35.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.00310%+4036%2.5%cautela (no operable)$453
120-139$0.00718%+2426%4.3%cautela (no operable)$656
140-159$0.04222%+433%4.7%cautela (no operable)$1,250
lleva 134 · proyeccion 163.3 ± 18.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0049%+2525%2.2%cautela (no operable)$2,890
140-159$0.01932%+1534%7.6%cautela (no operable)$6,711
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.6 ± 49.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0020%+83%0.0%cautela (no operable)$567
40-59$0.0041%+75%0.1%cautela (no operable)$321
200+$0.24529%+20%1.6%escalable$1,136
lleva 62 · proyeccion 154.1 ± 36.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0055%+750%1.0%cautela (no operable)$1,082
60-79$0.0042%+346%0.3%cautela (no operable)$2,117
100-119$0.03010%+247%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,710
120-139$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$1,531
140-159$0.17521%+23%1.2%moderado$959
lleva 156 · proyeccion 189.2 ± 21.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0038%+2928%1.8%cautela (no operable)$3,637
160-179$0.12024%+101%3.4%moderado$3,070
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 133.8 ± 27.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.17024%+44%2.2%moderado$216
lleva 42 · proyeccion 120.7 ± 20.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.19032%+69%4.1%moderado$348
80-99$0.09113%+43%1.1%cautela (no operable)$417
60-79$0.0182%+26%0.1%cautela (no operable)$124
120-139$0.28534%+19%1.9%escalable$402
lleva 136 · proyeccion 158.6 ± 11.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0024%+2824%1.1%cautela (no operable)$962
140-159$0.42049%+16%2.9%escalable$2,794
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 101.8 ± 17.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12539%+215%7.7%moderado$74
120-139$0.04914%+188%2.4%cautela (no operable)$40
lleva 20 · proyeccion 80.6 ± 13.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.36545%+23%3.4%escalable$657
lleva 50 · proyeccion 70.1 ± 7.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.0 ± 11.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.02714%+422%2.9%cautela (no operable)$753
40-59$0.42560%+40%7.4%escalable$1,350
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.4 ± 8.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+160%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,463
40-59$0.43049%+13%2.4%escalable$4,187
lleva 29 · proyeccion 36.0 ± 4.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.5 ± 12.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01316%+1079%3.7%cautela (no operable)$20
20-39$0.31558%+85%9.7%escalable$792
lleva 0 · proyeccion 16.6 ± 9.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.13037%+185%6.9%moderado$798
40-59$0.0061%+28%0.0%cautela (no operable)$379
lleva 6 · proyeccion 10.9 ± 5.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0305%+58%0.5%cautela (no operable)$3,179
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.9 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+218%0.3%cautela (no operable)$12
10-14$0.10518%+68%2.0%moderado$0
15-19$0.12014%+16%0.5%moderado$0
25-29$0.0435%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.8 ± 8.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03617%+357%3.4%cautela (no operable)$319
15-19$0.0308%+166%1.3%cautela (no operable)$128
20-24$0.0233%+13%0.1%cautela (no operable)$117
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.4 ± 4.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0073%+263%0.5%cautela (no operable)$2,952
5-9$0.09520%+114%3.0%cautela (no operable)$5,072