CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.165	76%	+359%	17.7%	moderado	$3,492
Donald Trump	200+	$0.140	54%	+285%	11.6%	moderado	$267
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.125	37%	+196%	7.0%	moderado	$0
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	60-79	$0.146	36%	+145%	6.2%	moderado	$534
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.225	51%	+126%	9.1%	escalable	$661
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.250	48%	+92%	7.7%	escalable	$1,936
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.170	27%	+58%	3.0%	moderado	$2,680
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.165	26%	+55%	2.7%	moderado	$3,919
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.365	55%	+50%	7.2%	escalable	$0
Ted Cruz	80-99	$0.130	19%	+45%	1.7%	moderado	$356
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.370	51%	+38%	5.6%	escalable	$754
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.100	14%	+37%	1.0%	moderado	$196

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,185 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 26% del periodo

lleva 170 · proyeccion 1107.2 ± 154.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.165	76%	+359%	17.7%	moderado	$3,492

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 400.2 ± 101.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
500+	$0.002	16%	+10771%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$697
400-419	$0.006	8%	+1207%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$50
420-439	$0.006	8%	+1159%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$5
360-379	$0.006	8%	+1057%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$62
340-359	$0.007	7%	+827%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$187
380-399	$0.013	8%	+527%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$50
320-339	$0.013	6%	+394%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$175
300-319	$0.021	5%	+157%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$194
280-299	$0.027	4%	+61%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,483

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 265.3 ± 79.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
360-379	$0.002	4%	+2739%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$17,556
340-359	$0.003	6%	+2192%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$21,118
320-339	$0.004	7%	+1968%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$14,305
380-399	$0.002	3%	+1882%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$23,987
400-419	$0.002	2%	+1199%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$15,473
300-319	$0.009	9%	+910%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$12,146
280-299	$0.018	10%	+417%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$12,975
80-99	$0.004	1%	+151%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$36,976
260-279	$0.045	10%	+122%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$5,065
100-119	$0.010	1%	+48%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$39,868
240-259	$0.085	10%	+16%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$3,582

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 102 · proyeccion 222.7 ± 55.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
300-319	$0.003	4%	+1610%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$54,608
320-339	$0.002	2%	+1432%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$39,721
280-299	$0.005	7%	+1171%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$46,011
260-279	$0.011	10%	+775%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$54,934
240-259	$0.021	13%	+492%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$37,053
120-139	$0.007	4%	+373%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$78,828
220-239	$0.075	14%	+89%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$40,904

Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 82.5 ± 45.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.002	7%	+4586%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$3,758
115-139	$0.007	14%	+1840%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$5,230
165-189	$0.002	3%	+1716%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$7,891
90-114	$0.040	20%	+398%	4.1%	cautela (no operable)	$3,538
65-89	$0.195	21%	+9%	0.6%	moderado	$3,740

Elon Musk # tweets August 6 - August 8, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 36 · proyeccion 45.2 ± 15.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
65-89	$0.009	10%	+985%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$69,238

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,326 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.3 ± 48.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.006	1%	+139%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$17
140-159	$0.080	10%	+26%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$21

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 150.1 ± 39.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.003	18%	+5754%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$346
100-119	$0.004	12%	+3301%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$426
140-159	$0.030	20%	+570%	4.4%	cautela (no operable)	$581
160-179	$0.160	18%	+12%	0.6%	moderado	$658

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 106 · proyeccion 159.5 ± 25.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.002	16%	+7771%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,029
100-119	$0.002	5%	+3092%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$463
140-159	$0.042	29%	+580%	6.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,710

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,054 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.8 ± 54.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.140	54%	+285%	11.6%	moderado	$267
180-199	$0.075	14%	+87%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$163
160-179	$0.070	12%	+69%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$210

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 142.8 ± 42.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.005	2%	+249%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$366
80-99	$0.026	9%	+225%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$572
60-79	$0.017	4%	+154%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$330
20-39	$0.004	1%	+62%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$986
100-119	$0.086	14%	+60%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,044

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 112 · proyeccion 177.9 ± 30.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.018	8%	+343%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,850
140-159	$0.065	17%	+160%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$2,466
160-179	$0.210	25%	+17%	1.1%	escalable	$2,188

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,469 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.0 ± 29.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.025	5%	+104%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$40

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 115.1 ± 23.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.030	5%	+78%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$97
80-99	$0.130	19%	+45%	1.7%	moderado	$356
100-119	$0.275	32%	+18%	1.7%	escalable	$195

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 112 · proyeccion 153.0 ± 15.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.016	17%	+976%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$619
140-159	$0.250	48%	+92%	7.7%	escalable	$1,936
100-119	$0.008	1%	+62%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$517

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,639 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 117.6 ± 19.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.050	34%	+573%	7.5%	cautela (no operable)	$0
100-119	$0.125	37%	+196%	7.0%	moderado	$0

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 7 · proyeccion 83.4 ± 15.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.100	14%	+37%	1.0%	moderado	$196

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 37 · proyeccion 72.9 ± 10.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.205	26%	+26%	1.6%	escalable	$1,764

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 798 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 56.0 ± 12.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.146	36%	+145%	6.2%	moderado	$534
40-59	$0.225	51%	+126%	9.1%	escalable	$661

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 10.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.025	4%	+46%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,125
40-59	$0.330	40%	+22%	2.8%	escalable	$2,857

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 6.9

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 31.8 ± 13.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.016	26%	+1532%	6.2%	cautela (no operable)	$0
20-39	$0.365	55%	+50%	7.2%	escalable	$0

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 20.8 ± 10.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.370	51%	+38%	5.6%	escalable	$754

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 15.2 ± 7.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.170	27%	+58%	3.0%	moderado	$2,680

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.7 ± 11.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
35-39	$0.011	1%	+32%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$22

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 9.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.013	6%	+350%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$82
10-14	$0.053	18%	+240%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$199
15-19	$0.042	12%	+179%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$83

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 6.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.006	3%	+424%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,321
10-14	$0.030	12%	+314%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,119
5-9	$0.165	26%	+55%	2.7%	moderado	$3,919