Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 65-89 $0.165 46% +177% 8.8% moderado $92,297 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.185 40% +118% 6.7% moderado $1,050 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.105 22% +108% 3.2% moderado $1,164 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.110 22% +98% 3.0% moderado $4,231 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.300 55% +84% 9.0% escalable $1,899 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.180 29% +63% 3.5% moderado $2,293 Ted Cruz 180-199 $0.235 36% +55% 4.2% escalable $373 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.385 56% +46% 7.2% escalable $3,339 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.305 43% +40% 4.4% escalable $742 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.310 40% +29% 3.2% escalable $4,155 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.100 13% +25% 0.7% moderado $697 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.110 12% +12% 0.4% moderado $2,955
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,361 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 346 · proyeccion 997.1 ± 129.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 49% +721% 11.5% cautela (no operable) $6,478 960-999 $0.022 12% +454% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $9,396 920-959 $0.053 11% +110% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,524
lleva 9 · proyeccion 253.7 ± 79.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 6% +4148% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $39,149 340-359 $0.002 5% +3134% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $29,479 300-319 $0.004 8% +1863% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $14,875 280-299 $0.009 9% +968% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $15,164 260-279 $0.018 10% +433% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,545 80-99 $0.003 1% +373% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $45,259 240-259 $0.045 10% +123% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $3,882 220-239 $0.085 10% +13% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $4,388
lleva 108 · proyeccion 226.8 ± 55.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.003 5% +1794% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $50,697 320-339 $0.002 3% +1628% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $40,123 280-299 $0.004 8% +1588% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $51,099 260-279 $0.009 11% +1159% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $51,998 120-139 $0.004 3% +781% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $107,697 240-259 $0.025 13% +419% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $40,689 220-239 $0.085 14% +69% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $25,499 140-159 $0.051 5% +8% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $82,381
lleva 56 · proyeccion 64.7 ± 14.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.005 5% +865% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $123,492 65-89 $0.165 46% +177% 8.8% moderado $92,297
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,527 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 19 · proyeccion 149.8 ± 38.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 18% +3472% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $458 140-159 $0.006 20% +3311% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $522 100-119 $0.005 12% +2297% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $484 80-99 $0.004 6% +1273% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $747 160-179 $0.019 18% +848% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $699 60-79 $0.004 2% +444% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $781
lleva 125 · proyeccion 179.3 ± 24.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.011 29% +2670% 7.1% cautela (no operable) $4,110
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,251 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 42 · proyeccion 167.7 ± 42.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 0% +169% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $3,254 100-119 $0.044 7% +66% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $506 120-139 $0.100 13% +25% 0.7% moderado $697 160-179 $0.175 19% +7% 0.4% moderado $1,483
lleva 121 · proyeccion 187.1 ± 30.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.006 5% +616% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,776 160-179 $0.110 22% +98% 3.0% moderado $4,231 140-159 $0.110 12% +12% 0.4% moderado $2,955
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,655 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 39 · proyeccion 138.1 ± 24.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 136 · proyeccion 177.3 ± 15.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.070 12% +73% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,038 180-199 $0.235 36% +55% 4.2% escalable $373 160-179 $0.305 43% +40% 4.4% escalable $742 120-139 $0.006 1% +35% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $863
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,699 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 79.6 ± 15.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.028 9% +236% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $479 80-99 $0.185 40% +118% 6.7% moderado $1,050 120-139 $0.004 0% +40% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $310
lleva 37 · proyeccion 71.4 ± 10.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.105 22% +108% 3.2% moderado $1,164 40-59 $0.115 13% +10% 0.3% moderado $156
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 833 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.3 ± 10.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.009 1% +42% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,394 <20 $0.027 4% +41% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,228 40-59 $0.310 40% +29% 3.2% escalable $4,155
lleva 19 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 6.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 459 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 22.0 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.010 4% +345% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.300 55% +84% 9.0% escalable $1,899
lleva 12 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 6.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.385 56% +46% 7.2% escalable $3,339
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.2 ± 8.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 11% +2002% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 4% +742% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $180 25-29 $0.005 1% +139% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $130 10-14 $0.085 19% +119% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $372 5-9 $0.220 23% +6% 0.4% escalable $564
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.0 ± 5.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.008 14% +1600% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $1,081 15-19 $0.004 3% +798% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $897 5-9 $0.180 29% +63% 3.5% moderado $2,293
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.