Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.160 37% +130% 6.2% moderado $1,396 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.255 54% +112% 9.6% escalable $2,354 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.130 23% +78% 2.9% moderado $1,202 The White House 160-179 $0.118 21% +77% 2.6% moderado $2,137 Elon Musk 180-199 $0.145 25% +72% 3.1% moderado $136,025 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.285 49% +72% 7.2% escalable $4,038 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.150 23% +51% 2.3% moderado $2,043 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.470 70% +48% 10.7% escalable $2,370 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.190 26% +38% 2.2% moderado $682
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,397 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 383 · proyeccion 947.3 ± 120.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.035 33% +849% 7.7% cautela (no operable) $7,049 960-999 $0.019 13% +554% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $10,797 920-959 $0.051 13% +161% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $5,430 880-919 $0.090 12% +36% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $5,087
lleva 46 · proyeccion 205.7 ± 64.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 8% +4957% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $48,458 280-299 $0.002 5% +3436% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $57,667 240-259 $0.004 10% +2088% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $24,339 220-239 $0.013 12% +828% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $18,733 60-79 $0.002 1% +773% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $55,612 80-99 $0.009 2% +168% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $97,821 200-219 $0.055 12% +126% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $19,639
lleva 145 · proyeccion 178.8 ± 29.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.003 6% +2455% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $125,597 200-219 $0.011 16% +1272% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $137,741 260-279 $0.002 0% +84% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $109,187 180-199 $0.145 25% +72% 3.1% moderado $136,025
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,557 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 55 · proyeccion 152.8 ± 33.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.016 23% +1368% 5.6% cautela (no operable) $1,228 160-179 $0.118 21% +77% 2.6% moderado $2,137
lleva 161 · proyeccion 182.2 ± 15.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.054 36% +565% 8.1% cautela (no operable) $11,252
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 145.3 ± 34.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 6% +1490% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $1,693 100-119 $0.015 14% +800% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $1,002 120-139 $0.049 21% +321% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $870 60-79 $0.005 2% +292% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $5,047 140-159 $0.150 23% +51% 2.3% moderado $2,043
lleva 141 · proyeccion 164.8 ± 18.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.049 40% +719% 9.3% cautela (no operable) $8,148
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,670 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 57 · proyeccion 129.5 ± 20.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.077 24% +210% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $1,161 120-139 $0.160 37% +130% 6.2% moderado $1,396 80-99 $0.042 7% +62% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $413
lleva 154 · proyeccion 168.6 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.070 16% +134% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $2,454
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 20 · proyeccion 70.7 ± 12.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.130 23% +78% 2.9% moderado $1,202 100-119 $0.011 1% +12% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $616
lleva 52 · proyeccion 62.5 ± 5.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.470 70% +48% 10.7% escalable $2,370
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 844 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +215% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,824
lleva 30 · proyeccion 35.1 ± 3.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.095 13% +32% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $9,897
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 463 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 6 · proyeccion 20.8 ± 8.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.255 54% +112% 9.6% escalable $2,354 40-59 $0.010 2% +73% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $473
lleva 16 · proyeccion 19.4 ± 4.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.285 49% +72% 7.2% escalable $4,038
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 5% +813% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.045 15% +242% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.005 1% +136% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.190 26% +38% 2.2% moderado $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.0 ± 3.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.029 21% +630% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $2,833 10-14 $0.007 1% +55% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,282
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).