Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.105 45% +329% 9.7% moderado $0 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.195 46% +138% 8.4% moderado $0 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.250 58% +131% 10.9% escalable $1,246 The White House 160-179 $0.110 25% +128% 4.0% moderado $2,911 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.110 24% +122% 3.8% moderado $13,512 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.120 25% +106% 3.6% moderado $74 The White House 200+ $0.345 70% +104% 13.7% escalable $0 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.165 31% +88% 4.3% moderado $4,608 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.100 18% +78% 2.2% moderado $99 Donald Trump 200+ $0.335 55% +63% 7.9% escalable $0 The White House 160-179 $0.315 50% +59% 6.8% escalable $14,292 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.155 25% +58% 2.7% moderado $749
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,247 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 236 · proyeccion 1068.5 ± 145.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.085 68% +702% 16.3% cautela (no operable) $4,602 960-999 $0.030 9% +202% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,126 920-959 $0.065 7% +15% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,462
lleva 0 · proyeccion 424.1 ± 104.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.011 23% +2133% 5.7% cautela (no operable) $49 420-439 $0.011 8% +628% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $49 400-419 $0.011 8% +621% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $49 440-459 $0.011 7% +607% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $49 380-399 $0.011 7% +590% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $49 460-479 $0.011 7% +563% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $49 480-499 $0.011 6% +498% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $49 360-379 $0.012 7% +456% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $37 340-359 $0.037 6% +58% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $37 320-339 $0.043 5% +19% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $42
lleva 0 · proyeccion 297.5 ± 87.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 5% +3398% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $4,920 400-419 $0.002 4% +2579% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $10,775 360-379 $0.004 6% +1758% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $2,408 340-359 $0.004 8% +1599% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $5,094 320-339 $0.006 9% +1323% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $2,197 440-459 $0.002 2% +1243% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $11,250 500+ $0.002 1% +586% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $23,459 300-319 $0.015 9% +483% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,618 280-299 $0.025 9% +264% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $7,981 260-279 $0.045 9% +93% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,207 80-99 $0.003 1% +79% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $17,975
lleva 0 · proyeccion 187.0 ± 69.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240+ $0.002 22% +14816% 5.6% cautela (no operable) $262 165-189 $0.002 14% +6998% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $571 190-214 $0.002 14% +6906% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $48 215-239 $0.002 12% +5976% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $58 140-164 $0.003 13% +4956% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $571 115-139 $0.009 10% +941% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $756 90-114 $0.045 7% +51% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $69
lleva 84 · proyeccion 229.7 ± 61.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 3% +2205% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $45,999 300-319 $0.003 6% +2130% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $41,057 280-299 $0.004 8% +1696% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $43,175 260-279 $0.009 11% +1009% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $28,654 240-259 $0.026 12% +366% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $25,991 100-119 $0.005 2% +281% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $78,730 220-239 $0.075 13% +74% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $20,088
lleva 9 · proyeccion 70.0 ± 39.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.003 9% +3524% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $7,636 90-114 $0.007 18% +2310% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $10,668 140-164 $0.002 3% +1954% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $6,672 65-89 $0.110 24% +122% 3.8% moderado $13,512
lleva 168 · proyeccion 187.1 ± 22.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.002 6% +4077% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $158,314 200-219 $0.018 22% +1136% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $186,575 180-199 $0.325 35% +7% 0.8% escalable $164,223
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,391 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.81x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 227.1 ± 51.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.345 70% +104% 13.7% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.5 ± 42.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 16% +3993% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $605 100-119 $0.004 12% +2462% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $611 80-99 $0.005 7% +1203% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $634 140-159 $0.015 19% +1104% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $885 60-79 $0.005 3% +492% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $660 160-179 $0.155 17% +10% 0.5% moderado $1,097
lleva 87 · proyeccion 169.7 ± 31.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 11% +2157% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $1,157 140-159 $0.017 21% +1143% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $1,880 160-179 $0.110 25% +128% 4.0% moderado $2,911
lleva 172 · proyeccion 179.1 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.315 50% +59% 6.8% escalable $14,292 200+ $0.011 1% +23% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $15,347
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,125 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 205.7 ± 54.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.335 55% +63% 7.9% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 146.8 ± 46.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 2% +851% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,050 60-79 $0.007 4% +471% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $342 20-39 $0.002 1% +367% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,398 80-99 $0.040 8% +100% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,021 120-139 $0.145 16% +11% 0.5% moderado $287
lleva 90 · proyeccion 156.4 ± 30.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.012 8% +597% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $2,155 80-99 $0.004 3% +563% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $2,282 120-139 $0.065 18% +171% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $2,177
lleva 184 · proyeccion 191.5 ± 10.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,514 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.7 ± 30.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.6 ± 25.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.021 6% +184% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $520 80-99 $0.130 18% +37% 1.4% moderado $200 40-59 $0.009 1% +23% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $300
lleva 63 · proyeccion 124.3 ± 18.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.230 31% +34% 2.5% escalable $452 120-139 $0.310 40% +28% 3.2% escalable $588
lleva 157 · proyeccion 162.2 ± 5.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.165 31% +88% 4.3% moderado $4,608
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,662 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 130.7 ± 20.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.325 38% +18% 2.1% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.1 ± 16.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.120 25% +106% 3.6% moderado $74 120-139 $0.025 4% +51% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $90 80-99 $0.410 45% +10% 1.8% escalable $247
lleva 30 · proyeccion 79.1 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.048 5% +15% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,820 80-99 $0.400 44% +10% 1.6% escalable $958
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.5 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 60.3 ± 13.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.105 45% +329% 9.7% moderado $0 40-59 $0.340 42% +23% 2.9% escalable $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.9 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.013 2% +64% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $926 40-59 $0.355 53% +50% 6.8% escalable $3,865
lleva 19 · proyeccion 39.3 ± 7.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.410 49% +18% 3.2% escalable $4,366 <20 $0.004 1% +12% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,660
lleva 34 · proyeccion 35.9 ± 2.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.029 6% +114% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $7,106
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 14.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.020 37% +1758% 9.0% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.195 46% +138% 8.4% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.2 ± 11.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 11% +1576% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $368 20-39 $0.250 58% +131% 10.9% escalable $1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 14.2 ± 8.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.044 27% +512% 6.0% cautela (no operable) $992
lleva 6 · proyeccion 8.6 ± 3.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.8 ± 12.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.3 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.006 2% +150% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $100 20-24 $0.035 8% +135% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $100 15-19 $0.060 13% +124% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $88 10-14 $0.100 18% +78% 2.2% moderado $99
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.029 16% +430% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $470 15-19 $0.029 6% +123% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $279 5-9 $0.155 25% +58% 2.7% moderado $749 20-24 $0.011 2% +51% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $275
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.8 ± 3.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.039 12% +219% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $6,311 10-14 $0.003 0% +50% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $3,644
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).