CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-12 23:53 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.20055%+177%11.0%escalable$2,173
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21057%+173%11.5%escalable$968
Elon Musk200-219$0.10118%+79%2.2%moderado$98,953
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.10518%+70%2.0%moderado$325
Ted Cruz120-139$0.16027%+68%3.2%moderado$2,439
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.11519%+66%2.1%moderado$6,604
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.18529%+56%3.2%moderado$1,105
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.27041%+51%4.7%escalable$5,108
Donald Trump200+$0.17526%+50%2.6%moderado$575
Ted Cruz120-139$0.24536%+45%3.7%escalable$89
The White House180-199$0.27537%+35%3.3%escalable$8,983
Donald Trump180-199$0.20027%+34%2.1%escalable$3,876
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 280 · proyeccion 1037.7 ± 139.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.05061%+1116%14.7%cautela (no operable)$5,141
960-999$0.02910%+255%1.9%cautela (no operable)$8,278
920-959$0.0549%+64%0.9%cautela (no operable)$3,796
lleva 0 · proyeccion 350.0 ± 94.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0027%+4505%1.7%cautela (no operable)$2,514
420-439$0.0026%+3847%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,678
500+$0.0026%+3719%1.4%cautela (no operable)$17,204
360-379$0.0048%+2252%2.0%cautela (no operable)$2,940
380-399$0.0048%+1827%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,210
320-339$0.0078%+1073%1.9%cautela (no operable)$4,765
340-359$0.0088%+951%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,792
300-319$0.0128%+540%1.6%cautela (no operable)$3,122
280-299$0.0237%+198%1.2%cautela (no operable)$4,961
260-279$0.0556%+7%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,420
lleva 42 · proyeccion 265.7 ± 75.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0026%+2756%1.4%cautela (no operable)$13,726
320-339$0.0047%+2008%1.8%cautela (no operable)$12,810
360-379$0.0024%+1963%1.0%cautela (no operable)$16,889
300-319$0.0099%+946%2.0%cautela (no operable)$21,289
280-299$0.01610%+525%2.1%cautela (no operable)$19,073
260-279$0.03410%+213%1.9%cautela (no operable)$11,776
100-119$0.0061%+95%0.2%cautela (no operable)$43,001
240-259$0.07510%+37%0.8%cautela (no operable)$7,456
120-139$0.0182%+14%0.1%cautela (no operable)$33,395
lleva 0 · proyeccion 113.6 ± 54.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.0029%+6096%2.3%cautela (no operable)$5,022
140-164$0.00314%+5612%3.5%cautela (no operable)$9,748
115-139$0.00918%+1990%4.3%cautela (no operable)$6,422
90-114$0.04618%+289%3.5%cautela (no operable)$14,049
lleva 128 · proyeccion 200.3 ± 43.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0025%+3339%1.2%cautela (no operable)$105,952
240-259$0.00410%+2661%2.3%cautela (no operable)$138,169
120-139$0.0045%+1292%1.1%cautela (no operable)$242,027
220-239$0.02215%+551%3.2%cautela (no operable)$107,270
200-219$0.10118%+79%2.2%moderado$98,953
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.49x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 181.2 ± 45.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0055%+836%1.2%cautela (no operable)$154
120-139$0.0219%+339%1.8%cautela (no operable)$154
80-99$0.0052%+332%0.5%cautela (no operable)$254
140-159$0.04514%+204%2.4%cautela (no operable)$132
160-179$0.08517%+98%2.3%cautela (no operable)$286
60-79$0.0051%+65%0.1%cautela (no operable)$290
lleva 60 · proyeccion 164.9 ± 34.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00321%+8138%5.1%cautela (no operable)$2,515
160-179$0.01122%+2040%5.4%cautela (no operable)$2,822
lleva 157 · proyeccion 193.0 ± 20.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01620%+1171%4.8%cautela (no operable)$4,993
180-199$0.27537%+35%3.3%escalable$8,983
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 168.1 ± 49.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0021%+514%0.2%cautela (no operable)$484
60-79$0.0062%+243%0.4%cautela (no operable)$100
80-99$0.0255%+80%0.5%cautela (no operable)$232
200+$0.17526%+50%2.6%moderado$575
lleva 49 · proyeccion 158.3 ± 39.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0032%+473%0.4%cautela (no operable)$758
100-119$0.0369%+164%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,352
80-99$0.0205%+129%0.7%cautela (no operable)$1,439
40-59$0.0040%+44%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,443
120-139$0.13015%+18%0.7%moderado$942
140-159$0.17519%+11%0.6%moderado$1,132
lleva 143 · proyeccion 172.0 ± 20.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.08521%+153%3.5%cautela (no operable)$2,780
180-199$0.20027%+34%2.1%escalable$3,876
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 138.7 ± 27.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 52 · proyeccion 133.8 ± 21.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0030%+67%0.1%cautela (no operable)$793
120-139$0.24536%+45%3.7%escalable$89
lleva 120 · proyeccion 146.5 ± 12.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.16027%+68%3.2%moderado$2,439
140-159$0.54058%+7%2.1%escalable$3,215
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.4 ± 17.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.01515%+897%3.4%cautela (no operable)$266
100-119$0.07440%+433%8.7%cautela (no operable)$442
140-159$0.0052%+254%0.3%cautela (no operable)$291
lleva 17 · proyeccion 78.9 ± 13.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0447%+52%0.6%cautela (no operable)$160
80-99$0.36042%+15%2.2%escalable$604
lleva 49 · proyeccion 70.2 ± 8.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.08013%+58%1.3%cautela (no operable)$1,525
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 48.9 ± 12.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.04018%+354%3.7%cautela (no operable)$1,845
40-59$0.47060%+27%6.0%escalable$2,145
lleva 7 · proyeccion 37.5 ± 9.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.27041%+51%4.7%escalable$5,108
lleva 26 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 5.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.11519%+66%2.1%moderado$6,604
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.2 ± 12.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01120%+1706%4.7%cautela (no operable)$256
20-39$0.21057%+173%11.5%escalable$968
60-79$0.0051%+46%0.1%cautela (no operable)$215
lleva 4 · proyeccion 21.7 ± 9.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.20055%+177%11.0%escalable$2,173
lleva 4 · proyeccion 11.2 ± 6.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0129%+668%2.0%cautela (no operable)$1,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.5 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.07614%+88%1.8%cautela (no operable)$40
10-14$0.10518%+70%2.0%moderado$325
20-24$0.0679%+41%0.7%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.2 ± 8.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0055%+810%1.0%cautela (no operable)$278
10-14$0.02918%+515%3.9%cautela (no operable)$316
15-19$0.02411%+344%2.1%cautela (no operable)$269
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.3 ± 5.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03410%+209%1.8%cautela (no operable)$606
5-9$0.18529%+56%3.2%moderado$1,105