CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-10-08 04:13 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.11958%+385%13.1%moderado$2,864
Elon Musk1000+$0.27575%+174%16.6%escalable$32,081
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.15633%+112%5.2%moderado$644
Volodymyr Zelenskyy120-139$0.10020%+104%2.9%moderado$162
Ted Cruz140-159$0.13024%+88%3.3%moderado$10
CZ (Binance)<20$0.24044%+83%6.5%escalable$100
Donald Trump100-119$0.10519%+79%2.3%moderado$1,677
Volodymyr Zelenskyy60-79$0.23037%+60%4.5%escalable$778
Ted Cruz160-179$0.10517%+59%1.7%moderado$10
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.18529%+57%3.2%moderado$1,319
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.17627%+56%3.0%moderado$179
The White House180-199$0.11116%+47%1.5%moderado$265
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 24.87x48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 188 · proyeccion 1103.6 ± 150.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.27575%+174%16.6%escalable$32,081
lleva 0 · proyeccion 329.1 ± 90.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
420-439$0.0025%+3077%1.2%cautela (no operable)$9,651
380-399$0.0037%+2720%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,867
440-459$0.0024%+2329%0.9%cautela (no operable)$14,277
360-379$0.0048%+2177%1.9%cautela (no operable)$6,333
500+$0.0023%+1887%0.7%cautela (no operable)$24,153
460-479$0.0023%+1668%0.6%cautela (no operable)$13,300
400-419$0.0046%+1597%1.4%cautela (no operable)$8,360
340-359$0.0059%+1460%2.0%cautela (no operable)$6,818
480-499$0.0022%+1126%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12,850
320-339$0.0099%+878%2.0%cautela (no operable)$10,539
300-319$0.0189%+365%1.7%cautela (no operable)$4,848
280-299$0.0358%+125%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,779
80-99$0.0030%+7%0.0%cautela (no operable)$10,285
260-279$0.0687%+5%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,792
lleva 26 · proyeccion 233.5 ± 71.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0046%+1504%1.3%cautela (no operable)$29,258
120-139$0.0034%+1464%0.9%cautela (no operable)$58,573
100-119$0.0023%+1161%0.6%cautela (no operable)$49,738
160-179$0.0097%+778%1.7%cautela (no operable)$32,066
180-199$0.0309%+201%1.6%cautela (no operable)$41,888
200-219$0.04510%+133%1.6%cautela (no operable)$36,766
380-399$0.0091%+12%0.0%cautela (no operable)$19,942
220-239$0.10011%+11%0.3%moderado$28,272
420-439$0.0030%+10%0.0%cautela (no operable)$16,931
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.6 ± 50.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.0037%+2598%1.6%cautela (no operable)$4,332
140-164$0.00712%+1647%2.9%cautela (no operable)$3,802
115-139$0.01417%+1145%4.1%cautela (no operable)$1,668
90-114$0.09120%+115%2.9%cautela (no operable)$4,613
lleva 127 · proyeccion 190.2 ± 39.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.00217%+11520%4.3%cautela (no operable)$266,274
140-159$0.00212%+7828%2.9%cautela (no operable)$244,544
180-199$0.00420%+5589%4.9%cautela (no operable)$236,640
120-139$0.0026%+4115%1.6%cautela (no operable)$240,743
200-219$0.02618%+569%3.9%cautela (no operable)$168,325
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 12.13x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 194.2 ± 48.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00611%+1554%2.5%cautela (no operable)$55
120-139$0.0097%+616%1.5%cautela (no operable)$35
100-119$0.0114%+247%0.7%cautela (no operable)$25
160-179$0.07414%+93%1.9%cautela (no operable)$177
80-99$0.0102%+65%0.2%cautela (no operable)$53
180-199$0.11116%+47%1.5%moderado$265
60-79$0.0051%+15%0.0%cautela (no operable)$80
lleva 24 · proyeccion 134.9 ± 36.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00521%+4152%5.2%cautela (no operable)$275
140-159$0.00520%+3878%4.9%cautela (no operable)$447
100-119$0.00517%+3301%4.2%cautela (no operable)$198
60-79$0.0025%+2936%1.1%cautela (no operable)$448
80-99$0.00510%+1935%2.4%cautela (no operable)$265
40-59$0.0052%+205%0.3%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 133 · proyeccion 168.7 ± 20.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.00437%+10439%9.2%cautela (no operable)$666
180-199$0.00623%+3478%5.7%cautela (no operable)$3,642
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 13.74x37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 169.0 ± 48.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0558%+41%0.6%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 16 · proyeccion 125.1 ± 38.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0103%+216%0.6%cautela (no operable)$647
60-79$0.0287%+166%1.2%cautela (no operable)$613
100-119$0.10519%+79%2.3%moderado$1,677
120-139$0.14020%+45%1.8%moderado$2,243
80-99$0.10213%+33%0.9%moderado$1,826
lleva 118 · proyeccion 142.9 ± 18.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0219%+346%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,372
160-179$0.08016%+100%2.2%cautela (no operable)$3,755
140-159$0.35039%+11%1.5%escalable$7,687
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.8%Sobre-dispersion: 6.77x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 140.8 ± 30.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.13024%+88%3.3%moderado$10
160-179$0.10517%+59%1.7%moderado$10
180-199$0.0708%+9%0.2%cautela (no operable)$10
lleva 18 · proyeccion 98.5 ± 23.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.01516%+968%3.7%cautela (no operable)$133
40-59$0.0264%+57%0.4%cautela (no operable)$15
20-39$0.0051%+8%0.0%cautela (no operable)$20
lleva 71 · proyeccion 95.5 ± 12.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.00451%+11342%12.8%cautela (no operable)$3,164
60-79$0.00510%+1989%2.5%cautela (no operable)$448
100-119$0.07035%+396%7.4%cautela (no operable)$1,223
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.68x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 106.4 ± 26.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0053%+506%0.7%cautela (no operable)$57
160-179$0.0052%+265%0.4%cautela (no operable)$36
140-159$0.0298%+184%1.4%cautela (no operable)$115
120-139$0.10020%+104%2.9%moderado$162
100-119$0.18529%+57%3.2%moderado$1,319
lleva 3 · proyeccion 67.7 ± 20.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0108%+671%1.7%cautela (no operable)$659
40-59$0.07226%+260%5.0%cautela (no operable)$449
<20$0.0051%+93%0.1%cautela (no operable)$702
60-79$0.23037%+60%4.5%escalable$778
lleva 51 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 12.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00513%+2594%3.3%cautela (no operable)$1,398
60-79$0.11958%+385%13.1%moderado$2,864
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 45.3 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0059%+1593%2.2%cautela (no operable)$505
40-59$0.08561%+618%14.3%cautela (no operable)$253
lleva 7 · proyeccion 34.5 ± 8.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.17627%+56%3.0%moderado$179
<20$0.0294%+26%0.2%cautela (no operable)$453
lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.1 ± 4.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.03810%+167%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,148
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0%Sobre-dispersion: 4.34x28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.5 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.42562%+47%8.6%escalable$0
40-59$0.17018%+8%0.4%moderado$0
lleva 3 · proyeccion 20.7 ± 8.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.24044%+83%6.5%escalable$100
lleva 17 · proyeccion 23.4 ± 5.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.04123%+468%4.9%cautela (no operable)$1,893
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 16.61x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.2 ± 10.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.01416%+1075%3.8%cautela (no operable)$92
15-19$0.01112%+1059%2.8%cautela (no operable)$19
20-24$0.0167%+357%1.4%cautela (no operable)$126
5-9$0.05818%+215%3.3%cautela (no operable)$198
25-29$0.0144%+156%0.6%cautela (no operable)$105
30-34$0.0111%+36%0.1%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 2 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 8.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0025%+3195%1.2%cautela (no operable)$317
10-14$0.00919%+1868%4.5%cautela (no operable)$369
15-19$0.01111%+925%2.6%cautela (no operable)$400
5-9$0.07523%+198%4.0%cautela (no operable)$190
25-29$0.0152%+8%0.0%cautela (no operable)$318
lleva 3 · proyeccion 4.7 ± 5.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.00515%+2944%3.7%cautela (no operable)$612
15-19$0.0043%+588%0.7%cautela (no operable)$567
5-9$0.15633%+112%5.2%moderado$644