Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 40-64 $0.145 45% +214% 9.1% moderado $74,256 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.100 31% +206% 5.7% moderado $1,636 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.215 54% +151% 10.4% escalable $854 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.160 36% +124% 5.9% moderado $1,895 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.209 40% +93% 6.1% escalable $276 Donald Trump 200+ $0.185 32% +75% 4.3% moderado $575 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.155 24% +57% 2.6% moderado $5,840 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.155 24% +52% 2.4% moderado $945 Elon Musk 180-199 $0.105 16% +49% 1.4% moderado $86,417 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.445 61% +36% 7.3% escalable $1,915 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.300 41% +36% 3.9% escalable $5,036 Donald Trump 100-119 $0.114 16% +36% 1.2% moderado $1,274
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,272 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 257 · proyeccion 1038.1 ± 141.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.055 61% +1004% 14.6% cautela (no operable) $4,942 960-999 $0.018 10% +490% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $4,673 920-959 $0.040 9% +124% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $2,693 880-919 $0.045 7% +55% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,939
lleva 0 · proyeccion 373.4 ± 97.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 10% +6483% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $14,615 400-419 $0.002 8% +4971% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,474 420-439 $0.002 7% +4507% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,653 380-399 $0.003 8% +3112% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $790 360-379 $0.004 8% +1708% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,448 340-359 $0.005 8% +1337% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,310 320-339 $0.008 7% +820% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,159 300-319 $0.013 7% +406% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $2,515 280-299 $0.022 6% +151% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $4,487
lleva 19 · proyeccion 266.1 ± 79.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.002 4% +2777% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $5,502 320-339 $0.004 7% +1983% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $8,184 340-359 $0.003 6% +1829% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $9,258 300-319 $0.006 9% +1337% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $14,897 280-299 $0.011 10% +733% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $12,887 260-279 $0.024 10% +325% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $5,525 80-99 $0.003 1% +246% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $39,608 240-259 $0.055 10% +78% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $4,646 220-239 $0.085 9% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,458
lleva 0 · proyeccion 137.0 ± 59.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 16% +10690% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $1,601 165-189 $0.002 13% +8795% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $1,618 115-139 $0.007 16% +2097% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $1,541 90-114 $0.041 14% +248% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $1,061
lleva 105 · proyeccion 200.7 ± 49.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 6% +4014% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $87,511 240-259 $0.003 10% +3862% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $76,825 100-119 $0.003 3% +1103% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $225,053 220-239 $0.011 14% +1077% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $63,402 200-219 $0.025 16% +543% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $55,583 180-199 $0.105 16% +49% 1.4% moderado $86,417
lleva 30 · proyeccion 41.0 ± 16.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 65-89 $0.002 8% +5122% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $128,069 40-64 $0.145 45% +214% 9.1% moderado $74,256
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,434 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.55x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.0 ± 48.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.022 5% +132% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $22 140-159 $0.040 9% +119% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $0 80-99 $0.005 1% +91% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $102 160-179 $0.075 13% +70% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $108 100-119 $0.019 3% +29% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $22 200+ $0.435 54% +24% 4.5% escalable $220
lleva 34 · proyeccion 161.9 ± 38.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.024 20% +713% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $1,370 160-179 $0.029 20% +607% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $1,329
lleva 131 · proyeccion 190.0 ± 26.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.004 9% +2268% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $2,751 160-179 $0.013 22% +1678% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $3,780 180-199 $0.240 30% +24% 1.9% escalable $6,803
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.5 ± 50.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.006 2% +162% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $80 200+ $0.185 32% +75% 4.3% moderado $575 80-99 $0.025 4% +45% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $222 40-59 $0.005 1% +25% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $442 160-179 $0.130 16% +20% 0.7% moderado $326
lleva 19 · proyeccion 136.5 ± 41.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.004 2% +513% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,412 60-79 $0.009 5% +450% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $612 80-99 $0.019 10% +432% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $1,389 100-119 $0.114 16% +36% 1.2% moderado $1,274 120-139 $0.150 19% +26% 1.1% moderado $657
lleva 113 · proyeccion 150.2 ± 23.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 8% +3026% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,233 120-139 $0.059 23% +289% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $2,684
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,551 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 154.5 ± 29.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 32 · proyeccion 129.6 ± 23.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 1% +180% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $713 80-99 $0.045 8% +81% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $269 140-159 $0.155 24% +52% 2.4% moderado $945
lleva 100 · proyeccion 142.4 ± 15.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.018 6% +269% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $827 120-139 $0.160 36% +124% 5.9% moderado $1,895
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,669 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.8 ± 18.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 7% +1296% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $234 120-139 $0.038 28% +638% 6.4% cautela (no operable) $204 100-119 $0.209 40% +93% 6.1% escalable $276 160-179 $0.005 1% +18% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $226
lleva 7 · proyeccion 79.2 ± 14.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.050 8% +66% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $146 60-79 $0.385 41% +8% 1.2% escalable $482
lleva 39 · proyeccion 70.5 ± 9.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.140 18% +28% 1.1% moderado $1,449 60-79 $0.630 69% +9% 3.9% escalable $1,411
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 816 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 12.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 2% +274% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $686 60-79 $0.100 31% +206% 5.7% moderado $1,636 40-59 $0.485 55% +13% 3.0% escalable $2,050
lleva 2 · proyeccion 37.6 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.300 41% +36% 3.9% escalable $5,036
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.155 24% +57% 2.6% moderado $5,840
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.3 ± 13.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.016 27% +1608% 6.5% cautela (no operable) $217 60-79 $0.005 2% +257% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $163 20-39 $0.215 54% +151% 10.4% escalable $854
lleva 4 · proyeccion 24.6 ± 10.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.016 8% +397% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $771 20-39 $0.445 61% +36% 7.3% escalable $1,915
lleva 4 · proyeccion 13.7 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.011 21% +1806% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $1,020
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.048 15% +211% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $40 20-24 $0.053 10% +94% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $30 25-29 $0.041 6% +49% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $30 10-14 $0.140 17% +24% 1.0% moderado $104
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.005 6% +1115% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $278 10-14 $0.070 18% +165% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $316 15-19 $0.088 12% +38% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $269 30-34 $0.005 1% +31% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $278
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.026 15% +461% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $575 15-19 $0.015 4% +176% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $381 5-9 $0.225 28% +25% 1.8% escalable $1,057
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).