Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.200 59% +193% 12.1% escalable $73 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,108 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.295 65% +121% 12.7% escalable $154 CZ (Binance) 40-59 $0.105 22% +105% 3.1% moderado $60 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.195 40% +104% 6.3% moderado $1,704 The White House 200+ $0.225 46% +103% 7.5% escalable $24 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.140 24% +72% 2.9% moderado $15,476 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.165 27% +62% 3.1% moderado $352 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.165 27% +61% 3.0% moderado $179 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.115 18% +60% 2.0% moderado $597 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.155 24% +57% 2.6% moderado $1,196 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.200 26% +30% 1.9% escalable $75
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,832 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x 43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2478.1 ± 252.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.355 100% +182% 25.0% escalable $1,108
lleva 0 · proyeccion 375.0 ± 98.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 10% +6700% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $7,237 420-439 $0.002 7% +4543% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $512 400-419 $0.003 8% +2955% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,333 380-399 $0.004 8% +2196% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,627 360-379 $0.007 8% +982% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,538 340-359 $0.013 8% +528% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,752 320-339 $0.017 7% +342% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $638 300-319 $0.021 7% +217% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $353 280-299 $0.028 6% +102% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $406
lleva 37 · proyeccion 263.4 ± 76.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.003 4% +1491% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $15,331 340-359 $0.004 6% +1283% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $16,399 380-399 $0.002 3% +1236% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $10,883 400-419 $0.002 2% +1017% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $15,767 320-339 $0.006 7% +1005% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $16,026 300-319 $0.009 9% +816% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $10,813 280-299 $0.020 10% +393% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $6,160 260-279 $0.036 10% +189% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $6,937 80-99 $0.003 1% +161% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $33,476 240-259 $0.065 10% +58% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $5,105
lleva 0 · proyeccion 142.4 ± 60.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.003 14% +4547% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $440 140-164 $0.004 16% +3498% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $25 215-239 $0.003 6% +2391% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $8 190-214 $0.005 10% +1928% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $8 115-139 $0.011 16% +1412% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $87 240+ $0.005 5% +978% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $8 90-114 $0.055 13% +139% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $37
lleva 94 · proyeccion 194.5 ± 50.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.005 5% +868% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $38,483 280-299 $0.004 3% +693% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $35,801 240-259 $0.013 9% +549% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $36,452 300-319 $0.003 1% +397% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $36,072 100-119 $0.011 4% +272% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $108,213 220-239 $0.035 12% +248% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $39,282 320-339 $0.003 0% +91% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $34,720 200-219 $0.085 15% +76% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $34,808
lleva 817 · proyeccion 896.7 ± 45.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 960-999 $0.009 7% +735% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $34,022 920-959 $0.032 22% +614% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $28,871 800-839 $0.040 9% +120% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $84,973 1000+ $0.008 1% +44% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $25,622 880-919 $0.275 34% +24% 2.3% escalable $27,179
lleva 8 · proyeccion 71.6 ± 40.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.011 10% +831% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $31,376 140-164 $0.004 4% +791% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $8,359 90-114 $0.033 18% +469% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $18,781 165-189 $0.004 1% +156% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $9,350 65-89 $0.140 24% +72% 2.9% moderado $15,476
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,905 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9% Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x 27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 194.7 ± 44.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.225 46% +103% 7.5% escalable $24 120-139 $0.033 6% +92% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $8 140-159 $0.065 11% +65% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $12
lleva 34 · proyeccion 157.7 ± 35.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.003 9% +2919% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $141 120-139 $0.026 16% +514% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $239 80-99 $0.011 4% +237% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $120 140-159 $0.073 22% +193% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $254 60-79 $0.005 1% +103% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $186
lleva 112 · proyeccion 158.7 ± 21.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 15% +2976% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $2,061 140-159 $0.071 32% +354% 6.8% cautela (no operable) $3,323
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,663 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 200.7 ± 54.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 2% +236% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $147 120-139 $0.029 6% +112% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $269 60-79 $0.005 1% +50% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $161 100-119 $0.029 4% +23% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $140 160-179 $0.105 12% +18% 0.5% moderado $289
lleva 42 · proyeccion 160.2 ± 41.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 15% +2541% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $393 100-119 $0.005 9% +1572% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $290 80-99 $0.006 5% +675% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $181 60-79 $0.003 2% +525% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $193 140-159 $0.033 18% +455% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $413 40-59 $0.003 1% +102% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $732 160-179 $0.115 18% +60% 2.0% moderado $597 180-199 $0.140 15% +6% 0.2% moderado $1,055
lleva 157 · proyeccion 213.2 ± 28.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.005 9% +1699% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $2,631 180-199 $0.065 20% +202% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $3,309
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,965 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6% Sobre-dispersion: 7.14x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 155.1 ± 33.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 19 · proyeccion 117.4 ± 26.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 17% +3371% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $178 100-119 $0.046 28% +506% 6.2% cautela (no operable) $130 60-79 $0.026 6% +139% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $115 120-139 $0.165 27% +61% 3.0% moderado $179
lleva 121 · proyeccion 158.8 ± 16.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.195 40% +104% 6.3% moderado $1,704 120-139 $0.060 11% +86% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $808
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,964 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.8 ± 29.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.200 26% +30% 1.9% escalable $75 140-159 $0.135 15% +9% 0.3% moderado $0
lleva 14 · proyeccion 87.1 ± 23.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.075 22% +187% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $464 40-59 $0.057 10% +69% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $243 20-39 $0.011 2% +56% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $140
lleva 97 · proyeccion 128.8 ± 15.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 3% +432% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $887 100-119 $0.155 24% +57% 2.6% moderado $1,196 140-159 $0.198 22% +11% 0.7% moderado $723
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 899 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.7 ± 12.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 25% +4417% 6.1% cautela (no operable) $67 40-59 $0.200 59% +193% 12.1% escalable $73 80-99 $0.005 1% +90% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $67
lleva 3 · proyeccion 33.8 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.006 6% +923% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $181 40-59 $0.165 27% +62% 3.1% moderado $352
lleva 23 · proyeccion 35.7 ± 6.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.075 26% +246% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $1,894
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 524 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.1 ± 12.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.105 22% +105% 3.1% moderado $60 60-79 $0.006 1% +37% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $60
lleva 14 · proyeccion 33.3 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.295 65% +121% 12.7% escalable $154
lleva 34 · proyeccion 41.4 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.315 38% +20% 2.3% escalable $4,320
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 152 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1% Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.6 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.040 8% +109% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $0 5-9 $0.170 19% +12% 0.6% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.050 24% +389% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $677 20-24 $0.006 2% +306% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $251 15-19 $0.020 8% +293% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $225 10-14 $0.079 17% +116% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $361
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 4.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 4% +670% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,485 5-9 $0.051 23% +351% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $1,016
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).