Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Donald Trump 200+ $0.190 46% +144% 8.4% moderado $415 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.235 51% +119% 9.1% escalable $430 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.145 30% +110% 4.6% moderado $483 The White House 200+ $0.350 61% +75% 10.1% escalable $0 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.125 21% +66% 2.4% moderado $2,518 The White House 160-179 $0.115 17% +50% 1.6% moderado $1,119 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.105 14% +38% 1.1% moderado $35,370 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.135 17% +28% 1.1% moderado $71 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.355 45% +27% 3.8% escalable $4,422 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.340 43% +27% 3.5% escalable $822 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.100 13% +27% 0.7% moderado $146 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.145 18% +21% 0.9% moderado $523
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,251 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 244 · proyeccion 1048.7 ± 143.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.070 63% +806% 15.2% cautela (no operable) $4,775 960-999 $0.021 10% +382% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,210 920-959 $0.043 8% +96% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,663 880-919 $0.060 6% +8% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,814
lleva 0 · proyeccion 396.4 ± 100.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 15% +10101% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $877 420-439 $0.002 8% +4898% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $825 440-459 $0.002 7% +4492% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,120 380-399 $0.003 8% +3057% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $753 400-419 $0.003 8% +3038% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $753 360-379 $0.005 8% +1288% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $792 340-359 $0.009 7% +735% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $985 320-339 $0.011 6% +504% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $772 300-319 $0.015 5% +252% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,849 280-299 $0.022 5% +100% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $2,683
lleva 6 · proyeccion 275.9 ± 83.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 6% +4221% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $7,104 360-379 $0.002 5% +3295% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,833 320-339 $0.004 8% +1847% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,442 300-319 $0.007 9% +1077% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $9,568 440-459 $0.002 1% +627% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $13,984 280-299 $0.015 9% +552% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $10,230 80-99 $0.003 1% +213% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $22,376 260-279 $0.030 10% +213% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $3,815 500+ $0.002 0% +137% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $25,937 240-259 $0.055 9% +66% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $3,885
lleva 0 · proyeccion 159.4 ± 63.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 15% +10179% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $591 165-189 $0.002 15% +9866% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $591 190-214 $0.002 12% +8205% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $68 240+ $0.002 10% +6887% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $926 215-239 $0.002 9% +5849% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $839 115-139 $0.009 14% +1419% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $776 90-114 $0.038 10% +174% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $180
lleva 92 · proyeccion 210.1 ± 55.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 5% +3328% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $57,847 260-279 $0.003 8% +2600% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $52,674 240-259 $0.009 11% +1217% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $47,013 100-119 $0.005 3% +451% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $106,180 220-239 $0.030 14% +345% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $35,679 200-219 $0.105 14% +38% 1.1% moderado $35,370
lleva 17 · proyeccion 50.4 ± 29.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.003 8% +2952% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $29,517 65-89 $0.026 22% +762% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $44,503 40-64 $0.285 33% +16% 1.6% escalable $26,641
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,396 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.8x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 213.7 ± 50.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.350 61% +75% 10.1% escalable $0 120-139 $0.035 4% +14% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $22
lleva 11 · proyeccion 149.1 ± 40.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 12% +6005% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $614 80-99 $0.002 7% +3262% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $637 60-79 $0.002 3% +1356% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $663 140-159 $0.028 20% +599% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $911 160-179 $0.115 17% +50% 1.6% moderado $1,119
lleva 108 · proyeccion 177.3 ± 28.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 7% +1943% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,326 140-159 $0.015 17% +1058% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $2,130 160-179 $0.070 26% +277% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $3,237
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,128 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 194.6 ± 53.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.190 46% +144% 8.4% moderado $415 60-79 $0.006 1% +58% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $80 180-199 $0.140 15% +6% 0.3% moderado $113
lleva 2 · proyeccion 137.8 ± 44.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.004 3% +532% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,306 20-39 $0.002 1% +528% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,024 80-99 $0.040 10% +149% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,223 60-79 $0.042 6% +32% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $478 120-139 $0.145 18% +21% 0.9% moderado $523 100-119 $0.130 15% +13% 0.5% moderado $1,168
lleva 96 · proyeccion 151.3 ± 28.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 3% +594% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $2,886 100-119 $0.044 10% +117% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $2,309 120-139 $0.125 21% +66% 2.4% moderado $2,518
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,519 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 163.7 ± 30.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 5 · proyeccion 112.6 ± 24.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 1% +168% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $393
lleva 73 · proyeccion 125.2 ± 17.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.025 6% +147% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $463 100-119 $0.145 30% +110% 4.6% moderado $483 120-139 $0.340 43% +27% 3.5% escalable $822
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,664 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 118.1 ± 19.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.060 37% +510% 8.1% cautela (no operable) $0 120-139 $0.060 34% +467% 7.5% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.055 12% +109% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 5 · proyeccion 82.5 ± 15.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.050 6% +30% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $20 100-119 $0.100 13% +27% 0.7% moderado $146
lleva 37 · proyeccion 73.5 ± 10.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.230 28% +21% 1.6% escalable $1,132 60-79 $0.590 62% +6% 2.0% escalable $1,296
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 57.3 ± 12.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 4% +2756% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $619 60-79 $0.095 39% +311% 8.2% cautela (no operable) $1,157
lleva 0 · proyeccion 38.9 ± 10.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.355 45% +27% 3.8% escalable $4,422
lleva 19 · proyeccion 36.3 ± 7.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +100% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,660 20-39 $0.625 66% +6% 2.6% escalable $6,225
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 34.1 ± 13.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 31% +5610% 7.8% cautela (no operable) $82 60-79 $0.005 3% +448% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $93 20-39 $0.235 51% +119% 9.1% escalable $430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.4 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 6% +990% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $499 20-39 $0.090 54% +504% 12.5% cautela (no operable) $1,386
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.4 ± 7.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.017 15% +822% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $1,012
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.034 15% +341% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $20 20-24 $0.070 10% +49% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $30 10-14 $0.135 17% +28% 1.1% moderado $71
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.076 18% +141% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $252 15-19 $0.076 12% +61% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $241 30-34 $0.005 1% +34% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $253
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.061 15% +144% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $559 15-19 $0.029 4% +54% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $381 5-9 $0.235 28% +20% 1.5% escalable $1,025
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).