Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.165 76% +360% 17.8% moderado $3,536 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.120 40% +231% 7.9% moderado $12 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.160 45% +179% 8.5% moderado $2,088 Donald Trump 200+ $0.225 52% +132% 9.6% escalable $906 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.215 49% +129% 8.8% escalable $777 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.335 56% +66% 8.3% escalable $22 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.155 25% +61% 2.8% moderado $4,026 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.125 20% +61% 2.2% moderado $3,026 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.130 20% +51% 1.9% moderado $286 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.160 24% +50% 2.4% moderado $2,208 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.165 23% +37% 1.8% moderado $7,700 The White House 160-179 $0.140 19% +34% 1.4% moderado $675
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,185 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 179 · proyeccion 1107.4 ± 154.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.165 76% +360% 17.8% moderado $3,536
lleva 0 · proyeccion 391.3 ± 100.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 14% +9218% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $11,998 400-419 $0.002 8% +5123% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $760 420-439 $0.002 7% +4838% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $210 360-379 $0.005 8% +1314% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $482 340-359 $0.011 7% +564% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $563 320-339 $0.011 7% +472% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,046 300-319 $0.015 6% +280% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $451 280-299 $0.024 5% +98% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $2,288 380-399 $0.056 8% +44% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $255
lleva 27 · proyeccion 265.4 ± 78.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.003 6% +2191% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $26,716 360-379 $0.002 4% +2007% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $25,854 380-399 $0.002 3% +1836% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $32,063 320-339 $0.006 7% +1022% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $22,786 300-319 $0.011 9% +729% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $15,708 80-99 $0.002 1% +444% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $44,777 280-299 $0.021 10% +374% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $14,885 100-119 $0.005 1% +180% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $43,453 260-279 $0.058 10% +77% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $7,011 240-259 $0.085 10% +17% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $5,695 120-139 $0.019 2% +16% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $22,923
lleva 111 · proyeccion 222.9 ± 53.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.003 4% +1524% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $65,897 320-339 $0.002 2% +1288% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $47,730 280-299 $0.006 7% +960% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $52,667 120-139 $0.004 3% +721% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $97,854 260-279 $0.021 10% +374% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $61,209 240-259 $0.048 13% +174% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $49,178 220-239 $0.115 15% +28% 0.9% moderado $49,692 140-159 $0.049 6% +21% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $63,125
lleva 0 · proyeccion 73.7 ± 43.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.002 5% +3002% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $5,204 115-139 $0.009 11% +1046% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $8,721 90-114 $0.042 18% +339% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $10,372 65-89 $0.165 23% +37% 1.8% moderado $7,700
lleva 45 · proyeccion 45.4 ± 3.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,326 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 193.9 ± 48.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 2% +194% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $97 140-159 $0.056 11% +93% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $216 120-139 $0.041 7% +66% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $70 160-179 $0.095 14% +53% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $176 60-79 $0.005 1% +11% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $97
lleva 28 · proyeccion 153.7 ± 38.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 17% +4707% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $361 100-119 $0.004 11% +2978% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $426 140-159 $0.023 20% +780% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $581 160-179 $0.140 19% +34% 1.4% moderado $675
lleva 113 · proyeccion 163.1 ± 24.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.007 27% +3554% 6.7% cautela (no operable) $3,462 120-139 $0.004 13% +2786% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $1,466
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,060 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 202.4 ± 54.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.225 52% +132% 9.6% escalable $906 180-199 $0.115 14% +24% 0.8% moderado $261 160-179 $0.110 12% +11% 0.3% moderado $279
lleva 24 · proyeccion 146.2 ± 42.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.003 1% +460% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $453 100-119 $0.045 13% +184% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $1,050 80-99 $0.042 8% +83% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $578 60-79 $0.025 4% +44% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $451 140-159 $0.150 19% +25% 1.1% moderado $785 20-39 $0.004 0% +22% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $3,128
lleva 118 · proyeccion 181.3 ± 30.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.018 6% +260% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,887 140-159 $0.065 15% +134% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $2,518 160-179 $0.160 24% +50% 2.4% moderado $2,208
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,472 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.1 ± 29.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.055 22% +305% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.090 27% +200% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $0 180-199 $0.045 12% +158% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $0 200+ $0.025 5% +86% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $40 120-139 $0.185 21% +12% 0.7% moderado $0
lleva 23 · proyeccion 119.1 ± 23.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.065 15% +138% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $376 60-79 $0.018 4% +112% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $97 100-119 $0.235 31% +31% 2.4% escalable $215
lleva 117 · proyeccion 157.0 ± 14.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 11% +936% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $841 140-159 $0.160 45% +179% 8.5% moderado $2,088
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,643 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 113.9 ± 18.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.045 30% +560% 6.6% cautela (no operable) $12 100-119 $0.120 40% +231% 7.9% moderado $12 140-159 $0.033 8% +136% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $12
lleva 15 · proyeccion 87.6 ± 14.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.130 20% +51% 1.9% moderado $286 40-59 $0.024 3% +24% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,104
lleva 45 · proyeccion 77.1 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.310 39% +26% 2.9% escalable $1,781
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 798 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5% Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 54.9 ± 12.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.070 33% +372% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $713 40-59 $0.430 53% +23% 4.3% escalable $1,275
lleva 4 · proyeccion 37.3 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.008 1% +58% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,565 40-59 $0.320 40% +25% 3.0% escalable $2,872 <20 $0.029 4% +23% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,140
lleva 19 · proyeccion 33.9 ± 6.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.125 20% +61% 2.2% moderado $3,026
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 31.1 ± 13.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.041 24% +505% 5.3% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.335 56% +66% 8.3% escalable $22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 20.1 ± 10.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 3% +2019% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $172 20-39 $0.215 49% +129% 8.8% escalable $777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 14.5 ± 6.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.095 23% +142% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $2,717
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.8 ± 11.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.040 10% +151% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $10 15-19 $0.060 14% +139% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $0 25-29 $0.041 6% +39% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $70 10-14 $0.130 17% +32% 1.2% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.8 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.013 4% +235% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $82 10-14 $0.059 18% +199% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $199 15-19 $0.034 10% +197% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $83
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2.3 ± 5.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.025 8% +241% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $2,119 15-19 $0.006 1% +115% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,321 5-9 $0.155 25% +61% 2.8% moderado $4,026
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.