CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-07 04:50 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.20081%+306%19.1%escalable$3,210
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.10526%+147%4.3%moderado$129
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.13523%+71%2.8%moderado$5,162
Donald Trump180-199$0.13021%+62%2.3%moderado$2,233
Donald Trump160-179$0.14521%+48%2.0%moderado$1,741
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.43057%+34%6.3%escalable$260
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.36548%+31%4.4%escalable$2,434
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.45058%+29%6.0%escalable$6,082
Ted Cruz120-139$0.26134%+29%2.6%escalable$3,937
Ted Cruz140-159$0.32541%+28%3.3%escalable$295
Donald Trump160-179$0.12015%+27%0.9%moderado$1,055
Ted Cruz120-139$0.21527%+26%1.8%escalable$192
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4%Sobre-dispersion: 25.55x39 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 148 · proyeccion 1140.7 ± 159.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.20081%+306%19.1%escalable$3,210
lleva 0 · proyeccion 301.4 ± 87.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0024%+2743%1.0%cautela (no operable)$4,902
380-399$0.0036%+2098%1.3%cautela (no operable)$3,065
420-439$0.0023%+1995%0.8%cautela (no operable)$2,252
440-459$0.0022%+1366%0.5%cautela (no operable)$6,976
360-379$0.0057%+1123%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,652
320-339$0.0119%+721%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,496
500+$0.0021%+701%0.3%cautela (no operable)$19,634
340-359$0.0118%+644%1.7%cautela (no operable)$3,150
300-319$0.0199%+363%1.8%cautela (no operable)$2,750
280-299$0.0359%+153%1.4%cautela (no operable)$4,035
80-99$0.0020%+149%0.1%cautela (no operable)$18,654
lleva 80 · proyeccion 254.4 ± 66.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0023%+1717%0.6%cautela (no operable)$23,391
340-359$0.0034%+1641%1.0%cautela (no operable)$26,288
320-339$0.0046%+1489%1.5%cautela (no operable)$27,166
300-319$0.0078%+1033%1.9%cautela (no operable)$32,886
380-399$0.0022%+941%0.3%cautela (no operable)$24,449
280-299$0.01810%+493%2.2%cautela (no operable)$21,133
120-139$0.0062%+222%0.4%cautela (no operable)$45,007
260-279$0.04512%+158%1.9%cautela (no operable)$16,737
240-259$0.08512%+40%0.9%cautela (no operable)$19,943
140-159$0.0323%+11%0.1%cautela (no operable)$30,474
lleva 0 · proyeccion 136.2 ± 59.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00213%+8742%3.3%cautela (no operable)$583
140-164$0.00316%+6380%4.0%cautela (no operable)$583
190-214$0.0029%+5965%2.2%cautela (no operable)$152
215-239$0.0025%+3386%1.3%cautela (no operable)$181
240+$0.0024%+2568%1.0%cautela (no operable)$472
115-139$0.00917%+1645%3.9%cautela (no operable)$1,115
90-114$0.05514%+158%2.3%cautela (no operable)$1,478
lleva 14 · proyeccion 76.9 ± 40.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0024%+2890%1.1%cautela (no operable)$12,965
115-139$0.00712%+1434%2.7%cautela (no operable)$19,060
90-114$0.04320%+377%4.2%cautela (no operable)$18,587
<40$0.13515%+10%0.4%moderado$17,252
lleva 183 · proyeccion 204.4 ± 23.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240-259$0.0036%+2196%1.4%cautela (no operable)$205,348
220-239$0.01819%+941%4.4%cautela (no operable)$186,484
200-219$0.26532%+22%2.0%escalable$216,925
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.6%Sobre-dispersion: 12.37x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 150.7 ± 43.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0117%+494%1.4%cautela (no operable)$34
60-79$0.0063%+438%0.7%cautela (no operable)$22
120-139$0.03316%+393%3.4%cautela (no operable)$10
140-159$0.04018%+358%3.7%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.03512%+240%2.1%cautela (no operable)$10
40-59$0.0061%+106%0.2%cautela (no operable)$871
160-179$0.15517%+8%0.3%moderado$0
lleva 76 · proyeccion 151.1 ± 30.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00520%+3938%5.0%cautela (no operable)$358
100-119$0.00610%+1511%2.5%cautela (no operable)$438
140-159$0.01726%+1411%6.1%cautela (no operable)$867
80-99$0.0034%+1095%0.8%cautela (no operable)$384
lleva 176 · proyeccion 183.1 ± 9.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.06834%+405%7.4%cautela (no operable)$6,658
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 147.0 ± 46.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0054%+676%0.9%cautela (no operable)$271
40-59$0.0052%+245%0.3%cautela (no operable)$189
80-99$0.0518%+58%0.8%cautela (no operable)$507
20-39$0.0041%+56%0.1%cautela (no operable)$265
160-179$0.12015%+27%0.9%moderado$1,055
lleva 90 · proyeccion 178.0 ± 35.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0021%+633%0.2%cautela (no operable)$4,573
120-139$0.0369%+146%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,337
180-199$0.13021%+62%2.3%moderado$2,233
160-179$0.14521%+48%2.0%moderado$1,741
100-119$0.0304%+22%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,563
lleva 211 · proyeccion 219.1 ± 10.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.7 ± 25.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0446%+34%0.4%cautela (no operable)$52
120-139$0.21527%+26%1.8%escalable$192
lleva 89 · proyeccion 149.6 ± 18.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.08024%+201%4.4%cautela (no operable)$388
140-159$0.32541%+28%3.3%escalable$295
lleva 136 · proyeccion 141.9 ± 5.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.26134%+29%2.6%escalable$3,937
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.9%Sobre-dispersion: 3.05x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.9 ± 16.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.10526%+147%4.3%moderado$129
80-99$0.37045%+22%3.2%escalable$311
lleva 28 · proyeccion 77.8 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.33541%+21%2.7%escalable$1,616
lleva 67 · proyeccion 75.7 ± 5.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.13523%+71%2.8%moderado$5,162
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.9x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.7 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0062%+259%0.4%cautela (no operable)$590
40-59$0.43553%+21%4.1%escalable$2,050
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.2 ± 8.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 31 · proyeccion 32.6 ± 2.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.9 ± 11.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.04410%+132%1.5%cautela (no operable)$10
20-39$0.43057%+34%6.3%escalable$260
lleva 6 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 8.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0031%+172%0.1%cautela (no operable)$487
20-39$0.36548%+31%4.4%escalable$2,434
lleva 18 · proyeccion 20.2 ± 3.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.45058%+29%6.0%escalable$6,082
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.0 ± 10.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.03213%+314%2.6%cautela (no operable)$21
20-24$0.0268%+199%1.3%cautela (no operable)$20
10-14$0.08518%+111%2.6%cautela (no operable)$138
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0097%+670%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,214
10-14$0.05116%+216%2.9%cautela (no operable)$2,056
20-24$0.0092%+144%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,126
25-29$0.0040%+10%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,117
lleva 7 · proyeccion 7.5 ± 2.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.03423%+583%5.0%cautela (no operable)$3,619