Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.345 69% +100% 13.1% escalable $4,149 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.266 32% +20% 1.8% escalable $1,565 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.395 46% +16% 2.6% escalable $2,092 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.110 12% +11% 0.3% moderado $6,915
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,470 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.59x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 464 · proyeccion 955.2 ± 112.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.015 35% +2135% 8.4% cautela (no operable) $7,528 960-999 $0.013 14% +964% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $13,055 920-959 $0.024 14% +484% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $6,752 880-919 $0.065 13% +93% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $5,961
lleva 127 · proyeccion 214.3 ± 47.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 5% +3115% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $87,156 260-279 $0.005 9% +1457% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $92,224 240-259 $0.026 13% +391% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $98,668 140-159 $0.029 7% +129% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $116,699 220-239 $0.074 16% +114% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $99,090
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,602 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 101 · proyeccion 155.3 ± 24.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 6% +1147% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,904 120-139 $0.040 19% +369% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $2,119 180-199 $0.070 13% +82% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $8,746
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 96.2 ± 22.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.003 34% +13305% 8.3% cautela (no operable) $4,540 100-119 $0.003 30% +11709% 7.3% cautela (no operable) $4,094 120-139 $0.004 12% +2913% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $5,123 140-159 $0.003 2% +808% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $5,205
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,700 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9% Sobre-dispersion: 6.04x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 84 · proyeccion 124.6 ± 15.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.005 5% +857% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $530 100-119 $0.266 32% +20% 1.8% escalable $1,565 120-139 $0.395 46% +16% 2.6% escalable $2,092
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,733 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.23x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 39 · proyeccion 66.8 ± 9.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.037 9% +138% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,789 60-79 $0.345 69% +100% 13.1% escalable $4,149
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 850 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 20 · proyeccion 32.5 ± 6.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.110 12% +11% 0.3% moderado $6,915
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 466 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.34x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 8 · proyeccion 16.2 ± 6.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.041 31% +667% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $2,902
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 5.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 11% +1948% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $901 5-9 $0.024 27% +1034% 6.2% cautela (no operable) $1,585 15-19 $0.004 2% +507% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $762
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).