Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.165 40% +145% 7.2% moderado $1,050 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.130 29% +124% 4.6% moderado $2,359 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.305 54% +76% 8.4% escalable $2,199 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.275 44% +61% 5.8% escalable $1,052 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.130 20% +54% 2.0% moderado $1,408 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.300 42% +40% 4.3% escalable $4,155 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.395 53% +35% 5.7% escalable $3,339 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.205 25% +20% 1.3% escalable $584 Ted Cruz 180-199 $0.290 35% +20% 2.0% escalable $373 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.170 19% +11% 0.6% moderado $1,520 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.275 31% +11% 1.1% escalable $625
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,361 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 347 · proyeccion 988.8 ± 128.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 47% +678% 10.8% cautela (no operable) $6,478 960-999 $0.022 12% +450% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $9,396 920-959 $0.053 12% +117% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,524
lleva 10 · proyeccion 245.4 ± 77.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 6% +3713% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $45,715 300-319 $0.004 7% +1987% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $16,757 280-299 $0.005 9% +1488% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $15,859 260-279 $0.013 10% +682% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $5,590 240-259 $0.023 10% +345% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $5,002 80-99 $0.004 1% +206% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $47,196 220-239 $0.075 10% +34% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $4,784
lleva 109 · proyeccion 218.5 ± 53.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 3% +2224% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $54,688 260-279 $0.004 9% +2006% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $60,757 280-299 $0.004 6% +1442% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $60,450 240-259 $0.011 13% +1105% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $52,401 120-139 $0.007 4% +394% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $115,926 220-239 $0.045 15% +226% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $30,564
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,527 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 26 · proyeccion 152.4 ± 37.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 21% +4052% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $588 120-139 $0.005 17% +3384% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $513 100-119 $0.005 11% +2127% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $551 80-99 $0.004 5% +1255% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $747 60-79 $0.004 2% +402% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $781 160-179 $0.057 19% +230% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $936
lleva 132 · proyeccion 181.8 ± 23.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.012 29% +2294% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $4,424
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,255 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 51 · proyeccion 173.2 ± 41.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.080 11% +38% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $697 160-179 $0.170 19% +11% 0.6% moderado $1,520
lleva 130 · proyeccion 192.7 ± 29.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.095 20% +107% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $4,463
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,655 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 39 · proyeccion 137.0 ± 24.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.275 31% +11% 1.1% escalable $625
lleva 136 · proyeccion 176.2 ± 15.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 1% +351% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,267 140-159 $0.050 13% +166% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $2,038 160-179 $0.275 44% +61% 5.8% escalable $1,052 180-199 $0.290 35% +20% 2.0% escalable $373
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,701 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 8 · proyeccion 79.3 ± 15.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 9% +694% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $530 80-99 $0.165 40% +145% 7.2% moderado $1,050 120-139 $0.004 0% +12% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $322
lleva 40 · proyeccion 71.2 ± 10.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.130 20% +54% 2.0% moderado $1,408
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 833 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 37.9 ± 9.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.009 1% +47% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,444 <20 $0.021 3% +43% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,240 40-59 $0.300 42% +40% 4.3% escalable $4,155
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.6 ± 6.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 460 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.009 4% +295% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.305 54% +76% 8.4% escalable $2,199
lleva 12 · proyeccion 20.0 ± 6.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.395 53% +35% 5.7% escalable $3,339
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 7.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 8% +1583% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 3% +438% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $180 10-14 $0.080 18% +120% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $372 5-9 $0.205 25% +20% 1.3% escalable $584 25-29 $0.005 1% +15% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $130
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 4.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.007 8% +1001% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,081 15-19 $0.004 1% +148% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $901 5-9 $0.130 29% +124% 4.6% moderado $2,359
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).