Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.115 41% +257% 8.3% moderado $1,053 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 120-139 $0.110 36% +227% 7.0% moderado $0 Donald Trump 200+ $0.185 48% +159% 9.0% moderado $415 The White House 160-179 $0.115 26% +129% 4.2% moderado $3,178 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.100 22% +123% 3.4% moderado $216 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.255 51% +100% 8.6% escalable $430 The White House 200+ $0.350 64% +84% 11.3% escalable $0 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.335 48% +43% 5.4% escalable $4,415 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.105 14% +34% 1.0% moderado $33,881 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.150 20% +33% 1.5% moderado $2,409 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.250 33% +32% 2.6% escalable $483 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.135 17% +28% 1.1% moderado $71
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,251 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 238 · proyeccion 1048.4 ± 144.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.070 63% +804% 15.1% cautela (no operable) $4,775 960-999 $0.021 10% +381% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,210 920-959 $0.042 8% +98% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,663 880-919 $0.060 6% +8% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,764
lleva 0 · proyeccion 402.1 ± 101.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 17% +11132% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $857 420-439 $0.002 8% +4949% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $805 440-459 $0.002 7% +4596% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $800 400-419 $0.003 8% +3034% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $733 380-399 $0.003 8% +3018% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $733 360-379 $0.005 7% +1256% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $772 340-359 $0.009 7% +708% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $965 320-339 $0.011 6% +479% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $752 300-319 $0.017 5% +205% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,849 280-299 $0.024 4% +81% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,308
lleva 0 · proyeccion 275.6 ± 84.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 360-379 $0.002 5% +2443% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,713 380-399 $0.002 4% +2428% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $5,205 340-359 $0.004 6% +1332% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $5,554 320-339 $0.009 8% +713% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $3,422 300-319 $0.015 9% +464% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $6,652 280-299 $0.021 9% +356% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $9,864 440-459 $0.003 1% +273% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $13,932 500+ $0.002 0% +155% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $25,774 260-279 $0.042 9% +128% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $3,367 240-259 $0.065 9% +39% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $3,505 80-99 $0.007 1% +18% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $19,600
lleva 0 · proyeccion 165.1 ± 65.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 15% +9902% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $591 140-164 $0.002 15% +9868% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $591 190-214 $0.002 13% +8571% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $68 240+ $0.002 13% +8304% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $926 215-239 $0.002 10% +6395% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $839 115-139 $0.009 13% +1330% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $776 90-114 $0.039 10% +146% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $180
lleva 86 · proyeccion 209.8 ± 56.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 5% +3384% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $56,200 260-279 $0.005 8% +1516% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $46,515 240-259 $0.010 11% +1002% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $42,028 220-239 $0.034 13% +290% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $33,493 100-119 $0.009 3% +208% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $92,276 200-219 $0.105 14% +34% 1.0% moderado $33,881
lleva 11 · proyeccion 50.1 ± 31.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 90-114 $0.003 9% +3318% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $21,593 65-89 $0.045 22% +379% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $36,709 40-64 $0.275 31% +12% 1.1% escalable $19,821
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,396 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.8x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 218.3 ± 50.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.350 64% +84% 11.3% escalable $0
lleva 2 · proyeccion 144.7 ± 41.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.002 13% +6614% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $611 80-99 $0.002 8% +3867% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $634 60-79 $0.002 4% +1757% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $660 140-159 $0.029 19% +571% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $896 20-39 $0.002 0% +170% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $205 160-179 $0.150 16% +7% 0.3% moderado $1,119
lleva 99 · proyeccion 172.9 ± 29.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.003 9% +3655% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $1,278 140-159 $0.015 20% +1208% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $2,081 160-179 $0.115 26% +129% 4.2% moderado $3,178
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,128 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 196.8 ± 53.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.185 48% +159% 9.0% moderado $415 60-79 $0.006 1% +48% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $80 180-199 $0.135 15% +9% 0.4% moderado $78
lleva 1 · proyeccion 138.9 ± 44.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.002 1% +512% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,024 80-99 $0.023 10% +322% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,203 40-59 $0.006 2% +278% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,291 <20 $0.002 0% +88% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,083 100-119 $0.100 14% +44% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,147 60-79 $0.038 5% +40% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $462 120-139 $0.145 17% +20% 0.8% moderado $503
lleva 95 · proyeccion 152.5 ± 28.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 3% +1714% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $2,886 100-119 $0.044 9% +109% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $2,309 120-139 $0.150 20% +33% 1.5% moderado $2,409
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,519 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 166.7 ± 30.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 110.6 ± 24.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 2% +249% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $390 80-99 $0.100 22% +123% 3.4% moderado $216
lleva 68 · proyeccion 123.1 ± 17.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.045 8% +80% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $451 100-119 $0.250 33% +32% 2.6% escalable $483 120-139 $0.340 41% +20% 2.6% escalable $791
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,664 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 120.6 ± 19.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.065 34% +425% 7.4% cautela (no operable) $0 120-139 $0.110 36% +227% 7.0% moderado $0 140-159 $0.065 14% +117% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 2 · proyeccion 82.0 ± 15.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.105 12% +18% 0.5% moderado $79
lleva 34 · proyeccion 73.0 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.240 27% +12% 0.9% escalable $1,038
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 58.2 ± 13.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 5% +3288% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $619 60-79 $0.115 41% +257% 8.3% moderado $1,053
lleva 0 · proyeccion 39.8 ± 10.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.335 48% +43% 5.4% escalable $4,415 <20 $0.026 3% +11% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,731
lleva 19 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 7.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +68% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,660 20-39 $0.560 62% +10% 3.1% escalable $5,909
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 34.3 ± 13.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 32% +5700% 7.9% cautela (no operable) $82 60-79 $0.005 3% +476% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $93 20-39 $0.255 51% +100% 8.6% escalable $430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 22.6 ± 11.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.485 55% +13% 3.0% escalable $1,321
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.7 ± 7.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.030 16% +438% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $995
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.5 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.135 17% +28% 1.1% moderado $71 20-24 $0.085 10% +23% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $30 15-19 $0.123 15% +20% 0.7% moderado $20
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.2 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.005 1% +27% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $190
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.068 15% +124% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $555 15-19 $0.029 5% +61% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $381 5-9 $0.240 28% +17% 1.3% escalable $1,025
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).