CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-14 18:30 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.14542%+193%8.2%moderado$641
Elon Musk90-114$0.12227%+122%4.3%moderado$61,210
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.32054%+67%7.9%escalable$1,307
Ted Cruz140-159$0.27542%+52%5.0%escalable$1,444
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.19527%+37%2.3%moderado$933
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.33045%+37%4.5%escalable$4,124
Donald Trump100-119$0.10814%+32%1.0%moderado$501
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.29036%+23%2.3%escalable$5,592
Elon Musk240-259$0.11113%+18%0.6%moderado$26,966
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.47054%+16%3.4%escalable$2,996
CZ (Binance)<20$0.35539%+10%1.4%escalable$1,039
Elon Musk40-64$0.18019%+6%0.3%moderado$69,240
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.65x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 339 · proyeccion 1017.6 ± 131.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06555%+753%13.1%cautela (no operable)$6,419
960-999$0.03312%+250%2.1%cautela (no operable)$9,257
920-959$0.06310%+61%1.0%cautela (no operable)$4,424
lleva 2 · proyeccion 273.1 ± 83.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0025%+3173%1.2%cautela (no operable)$25,135
380-399$0.0024%+2314%0.9%cautela (no operable)$35,366
340-359$0.0046%+1696%1.5%cautela (no operable)$6,047
320-339$0.0048%+1589%1.8%cautela (no operable)$8,354
300-319$0.0079%+1058%2.0%cautela (no operable)$8,681
80-99$0.0021%+470%0.2%cautela (no operable)$30,505
280-299$0.0179%+468%2.0%cautela (no operable)$10,340
260-279$0.03510%+169%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,285
100-119$0.0091%+48%0.1%cautela (no operable)$38,815
240-259$0.0759%+22%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,987
lleva 101 · proyeccion 245.9 ± 61.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0023%+1979%0.7%cautela (no operable)$30,240
320-339$0.0035%+1954%1.2%cautela (no operable)$25,158
300-319$0.0048%+1590%1.8%cautela (no operable)$40,986
280-299$0.01110%+780%2.3%cautela (no operable)$39,745
120-139$0.0032%+755%0.5%cautela (no operable)$77,908
260-279$0.03012%+297%2.3%cautela (no operable)$41,223
140-159$0.0164%+136%0.6%cautela (no operable)$60,644
240-259$0.11113%+18%0.6%moderado$26,966
lleva 49 · proyeccion 83.8 ± 29.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.00512%+2104%2.9%cautela (no operable)$48,079
90-114$0.12227%+122%4.3%moderado$61,210
40-64$0.18019%+6%0.3%moderado$69,240
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.29x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 146.0 ± 39.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00518%+3540%4.5%cautela (no operable)$458
140-159$0.00620%+3186%4.8%cautela (no operable)$519
100-119$0.00513%+2527%3.2%cautela (no operable)$484
80-99$0.0057%+1383%1.7%cautela (no operable)$600
60-79$0.0053%+554%0.7%cautela (no operable)$634
160-179$0.04917%+241%3.1%cautela (no operable)$675
20-39$0.0020%+103%0.0%cautela (no operable)$273
lleva 111 · proyeccion 175.4 ± 27.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00619%+2765%4.5%cautela (no operable)$2,684
160-179$0.02528%+1009%6.6%cautela (no operable)$3,323
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 139.5 ± 44.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.01610%+495%2.0%cautela (no operable)$370
40-59$0.0052%+361%0.5%cautela (no operable)$619
20-39$0.0021%+319%0.2%cautela (no operable)$417
100-119$0.10814%+32%1.0%moderado$501
lleva 82 · proyeccion 159.0 ± 33.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0043%+699%0.6%cautela (no operable)$4,331
120-139$0.05916%+174%2.7%cautela (no operable)$1,098
100-119$0.0588%+38%0.6%cautela (no operable)$1,493
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 113.8 ± 25.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0027%+4820%1.8%cautela (no operable)$68
80-99$0.00620%+3204%4.8%cautela (no operable)$99
40-59$0.0032%+516%0.3%cautela (no operable)$399
120-139$0.09525%+167%4.4%cautela (no operable)$239
lleva 101 · proyeccion 153.2 ± 17.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0053%+397%0.6%cautela (no operable)$701
120-139$0.08019%+139%3.0%cautela (no operable)$709
140-159$0.27542%+52%5.0%escalable$1,444
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 3.1x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 81.3 ± 15.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.14542%+193%8.2%moderado$641
100-119$0.04211%+174%1.9%cautela (no operable)$479
120-139$0.0041%+99%0.1%cautela (no operable)$271
lleva 35 · proyeccion 73.0 ± 10.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.19527%+37%2.3%moderado$933
40-59$0.09011%+17%0.4%cautela (no operable)$85
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 38.9 ± 10.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0063%+351%0.5%cautela (no operable)$2,137
40-59$0.33045%+37%4.5%escalable$4,124
<20$0.0253%+34%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,228
lleva 16 · proyeccion 36.7 ± 7.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0031%+357%0.3%cautela (no operable)$3,231
40-59$0.29036%+23%2.3%escalable$5,592
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.9 ± 10.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0215%+154%0.8%cautela (no operable)$266
20-39$0.32054%+67%7.9%escalable$1,307
<20$0.35539%+10%1.4%escalable$1,039
lleva 10 · proyeccion 20.4 ± 7.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.47054%+16%3.4%escalable$2,996
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 8.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.03511%+216%2.0%cautela (no operable)$173
10-14$0.06019%+213%3.4%cautela (no operable)$328
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 6.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.01515%+943%3.5%cautela (no operable)$581
20-24$0.0021%+320%0.1%cautela (no operable)$372
15-19$0.0134%+238%0.8%cautela (no operable)$373