CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-09 23:49 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.14073%+423%17.2%moderado$4,239
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12039%+228%7.8%moderado$74
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.13539%+188%7.3%moderado$777
Donald Trump160-179$0.10521%+102%3.0%moderado$3,020
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.32058%+81%9.6%escalable$777
Ted Cruz100-119$0.20033%+63%3.9%escalable$348
Ted Cruz120-139$0.20028%+40%2.5%escalable$0
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.43060%+39%7.3%escalable$1,350
Ted Cruz140-159$0.18025%+39%2.1%moderado$216
Elon Musk<40$0.19025%+33%1.9%moderado$72,690
Donald Trump200+$0.24032%+32%2.5%escalable$1,103
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.34545%+31%4.0%escalable$657
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 214 · proyeccion 1092.5 ± 149.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.14073%+423%17.2%moderado$4,239
960-999$0.0698%+17%0.3%cautela (no operable)$3,782
lleva 0 · proyeccion 342.4 ± 93.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
420-439$0.0026%+3586%1.4%cautela (no operable)$4,079
500+$0.0025%+3006%1.1%cautela (no operable)$20,143
400-419$0.0037%+2536%1.6%cautela (no operable)$5,258
380-399$0.0048%+2044%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,266
360-379$0.0078%+989%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,083
340-359$0.0088%+961%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,175
320-339$0.0098%+788%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,528
300-319$0.0178%+385%1.6%cautela (no operable)$2,034
280-299$0.0297%+146%1.1%cautela (no operable)$5,612
260-279$0.0556%+14%0.2%cautela (no operable)$511
lleva 62 · proyeccion 252.0 ± 69.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0024%+2781%1.0%cautela (no operable)$40,514
320-339$0.0036%+1960%1.5%cautela (no operable)$41,718
300-319$0.0048%+1709%1.9%cautela (no operable)$30,851
280-299$0.01010%+888%2.2%cautela (no operable)$25,262
100-119$0.0041%+308%0.3%cautela (no operable)$61,030
260-279$0.02811%+302%2.1%cautela (no operable)$13,524
120-139$0.0132%+82%0.3%cautela (no operable)$53,111
240-259$0.07511%+52%1.1%cautela (no operable)$11,082
lleva 0 · proyeccion 105.3 ± 51.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00313%+5022%3.1%cautela (no operable)$682
165-189$0.0027%+4881%1.8%cautela (no operable)$731
115-139$0.01517%+1105%4.1%cautela (no operable)$1,058
90-114$0.04519%+322%3.8%cautela (no operable)$622
lleva 146 · proyeccion 209.5 ± 40.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0023%+1793%0.7%cautela (no operable)$94,563
260-279$0.0047%+1789%1.6%cautela (no operable)$88,657
140-159$0.0057%+1103%1.5%cautela (no operable)$140,422
240-259$0.01312%+830%2.7%cautela (no operable)$89,274
220-239$0.04817%+266%3.3%cautela (no operable)$84,332
lleva 30 · proyeccion 55.3 ± 25.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.0048%+2167%1.9%cautela (no operable)$58,046
65-89$0.05527%+390%5.7%cautela (no operable)$58,686
<40$0.19025%+33%1.9%moderado$72,690
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 175.3 ± 45.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00611%+1662%2.5%cautela (no operable)$120
100-119$0.0066%+943%1.4%cautela (no operable)$120
80-99$0.0063%+411%0.6%cautela (no operable)$139
140-159$0.06015%+147%2.3%cautela (no operable)$268
60-79$0.0061%+108%0.2%cautela (no operable)$169
lleva 46 · proyeccion 153.1 ± 35.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.00311%+3457%2.6%cautela (no operable)$453
120-139$0.00718%+2444%4.3%cautela (no operable)$651
140-159$0.03922%+462%4.7%cautela (no operable)$1,250
lleva 131 · proyeccion 162.5 ± 19.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00810%+1205%2.4%cautela (no operable)$2,488
140-159$0.07232%+342%6.7%cautela (no operable)$6,599
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.43x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 175.5 ± 50.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0020%+65%0.0%cautela (no operable)$567
200+$0.24032%+32%2.5%escalable$1,103
40-59$0.0051%+30%0.0%cautela (no operable)$121
lleva 62 · proyeccion 157.2 ± 37.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0041%+246%0.2%cautela (no operable)$917
100-119$0.0329%+196%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,660
80-99$0.0184%+132%0.6%cautela (no operable)$682
120-139$0.13016%+25%0.9%moderado$1,531
140-159$0.18521%+13%0.7%moderado$959
lleva 156 · proyeccion 192.3 ± 22.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0217%+204%1.1%cautela (no operable)$3,507
160-179$0.10521%+102%3.0%moderado$3,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 135.1 ± 27.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0062%+182%0.3%cautela (no operable)$493
160-179$0.05013%+168%2.2%cautela (no operable)$0
120-139$0.20028%+40%2.5%escalable$0
140-159$0.18025%+39%2.1%moderado$216
lleva 40 · proyeccion 120.0 ± 21.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.20033%+63%3.9%escalable$348
80-99$0.09114%+51%1.3%cautela (no operable)$417
60-79$0.0183%+41%0.2%cautela (no operable)$124
120-139$0.28533%+16%1.6%escalable$383
lleva 134 · proyeccion 157.9 ± 11.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0025%+3554%1.3%cautela (no operable)$960
140-159$0.42550%+18%3.3%escalable$2,781
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 101.8 ± 17.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12039%+228%7.8%moderado$74
120-139$0.04914%+188%2.4%cautela (no operable)$40
lleva 20 · proyeccion 80.6 ± 13.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.34545%+31%4.0%escalable$657
lleva 50 · proyeccion 70.1 ± 7.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.6 ± 11.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.02715%+469%3.3%cautela (no operable)$753
40-59$0.43060%+39%7.3%escalable$1,350
lleva 14 · proyeccion 40.0 ± 8.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+134%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,463
40-59$0.42551%+20%3.6%escalable$4,185
lleva 29 · proyeccion 36.6 ± 4.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.23027%+16%1.2%escalable$4,451
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.0 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01717%+930%3.9%cautela (no operable)$20
20-39$0.32058%+81%9.6%escalable$777
lleva 0 · proyeccion 17.0 ± 9.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.13539%+188%7.3%moderado$777
40-59$0.0061%+60%0.1%cautela (no operable)$358
lleva 6 · proyeccion 11.4 ± 5.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0177%+298%1.2%cautela (no operable)$3,138
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.9 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+218%0.3%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.04514%+208%2.5%cautela (no operable)$0
10-14$0.08018%+120%2.6%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0509%+77%1.0%cautela (no operable)$11
25-29$0.0435%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.8 ± 8.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.04617%+262%3.2%cautela (no operable)$319
15-19$0.0328%+153%1.2%cautela (no operable)$128
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.4 ± 4.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0103%+172%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,952
5-9$0.09020%+126%3.1%cautela (no operable)$5,072