CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-08 00:31 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.16077%+380%18.1%moderado$3,469
Ted Cruz140-159$0.16046%+190%9.1%moderado$1,746
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.35553%+50%6.8%escalable$754
Ted Cruz80-99$0.12519%+49%1.8%moderado$356
The White House160-179$0.13018%+35%1.3%moderado$630
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.33545%+34%4.3%escalable$2,748
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.11014%+24%0.8%moderado$174
Donald Trump160-179$0.20025%+23%1.4%escalable$1,993
Donald Trump140-159$0.17021%+22%1.1%moderado$1,916
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.21525%+18%1.3%escalable$1,733
Ted Cruz100-119$0.27532%+16%1.5%escalable$187
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.28532%+13%1.3%escalable$2,553
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.4%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x39 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 161 · proyeccion 1113.8 ± 156.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.16077%+380%18.1%moderado$3,469
lleva 9 · proyeccion 271.3 ± 82.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0025%+3071%1.1%cautela (no operable)$13,485
380-399$0.0023%+2202%0.8%cautela (no operable)$18,819
340-359$0.0046%+1664%1.5%cautela (no operable)$19,365
320-339$0.0068%+1062%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,783
300-319$0.0179%+428%1.8%cautela (no operable)$9,440
80-99$0.0031%+236%0.1%cautela (no operable)$34,144
280-299$0.0329%+201%1.6%cautela (no operable)$11,572
260-279$0.05510%+76%1.1%cautela (no operable)$3,825
100-119$0.0101%+40%0.1%cautela (no operable)$32,083
240-259$0.0859%+10%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,309
lleva 93 · proyeccion 228.7 ± 59.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0045%+1419%1.2%cautela (no operable)$47,307
320-339$0.0033%+1169%0.7%cautela (no operable)$33,339
340-359$0.0022%+1025%0.4%cautela (no operable)$34,753
280-299$0.0098%+784%1.8%cautela (no operable)$35,835
260-279$0.01811%+474%2.2%cautela (no operable)$40,365
120-139$0.0093%+249%0.6%cautela (no operable)$64,804
240-259$0.04313%+191%2.2%cautela (no operable)$32,043
220-239$0.09513%+42%1.1%cautela (no operable)$35,109
lleva 0 · proyeccion 97.5 ± 50.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00311%+4315%2.7%cautela (no operable)$1,305
165-189$0.0026%+3718%1.4%cautela (no operable)$1,774
115-139$0.01117%+1486%3.9%cautela (no operable)$4,286
90-114$0.04020%+392%4.1%cautela (no operable)$2,858
lleva 27 · proyeccion 51.2 ± 24.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.0036%+2167%1.4%cautela (no operable)$47,104
65-89$0.05523%+327%4.8%cautela (no operable)$34,282
115-139$0.0021%+257%0.1%cautela (no operable)$46,227
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 18 · proyeccion 149.1 ± 39.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00318%+5798%4.4%cautela (no operable)$346
100-119$0.00412%+3391%3.0%cautela (no operable)$426
140-159$0.00720%+2750%4.8%cautela (no operable)$376
160-179$0.13018%+35%1.3%moderado$630
lleva 103 · proyeccion 158.5 ± 25.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00417%+3574%4.0%cautela (no operable)$759
100-119$0.0025%+2596%1.3%cautela (no operable)$463
140-159$0.03529%+715%6.5%cautela (no operable)$1,728
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 133.5 ± 43.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0043%+538%0.6%cautela (no operable)$307
20-39$0.0031%+328%0.2%cautela (no operable)$590
80-99$0.04411%+147%1.7%cautela (no operable)$540
60-79$0.0426%+50%0.6%cautela (no operable)$311
<20$0.0030%+8%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,357
lleva 98 · proyeccion 168.6 ± 31.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0065%+621%1.0%cautela (no operable)$2,906
120-139$0.04612%+159%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,504
160-179$0.20025%+23%1.4%escalable$1,993
140-159$0.17021%+22%1.1%moderado$1,916
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 15 · proyeccion 115.4 ± 23.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0306%+82%0.6%cautela (no operable)$97
80-99$0.12519%+49%1.8%moderado$356
100-119$0.27532%+16%1.5%escalable$187
lleva 109 · proyeccion 153.3 ± 15.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.03217%+454%3.7%cautela (no operable)$549
140-159$0.16046%+190%9.1%moderado$1,746
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.0%Sobre-dispersion: 3.09x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 83.1 ± 15.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.11014%+24%0.8%moderado$174
lleva 35 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.21525%+18%1.3%escalable$1,733
40-59$0.10511%+6%0.2%moderado$336
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 38.8 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.33545%+34%4.3%escalable$2,748
lleva 18 · proyeccion 35.4 ± 7.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.8 ± 10.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0155%+252%0.9%cautela (no operable)$95
20-39$0.35553%+50%6.8%escalable$754
lleva 6 · proyeccion 16.1 ± 7.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.28532%+13%1.3%escalable$2,553
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.04018%+350%3.6%cautela (no operable)$199
20-24$0.0136%+350%1.1%cautela (no operable)$82
15-19$0.04312%+172%1.9%cautela (no operable)$83
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 6.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0063%+467%0.7%cautela (no operable)$1,283
10-14$0.03112%+300%2.4%cautela (no operable)$2,098