CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-29 03:53 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.355100%+182%25.0%escalable$1,043
Ted Cruz120-139$0.12027%+125%4.3%moderado$179
The White House140-159$0.14231%+119%4.9%moderado$2,793
Volodymyr Zelenskyy120-139$0.22343%+94%6.8%escalable$1,450
Donald Trump180-199$0.10520%+93%2.7%moderado$3,071
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.22040%+82%5.8%escalable$1,883
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.19535%+81%4.9%moderado$312
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.13023%+74%2.8%moderado$637
Donald Trump160-179$0.11517%+52%1.7%moderado$495
Elon Musk65-89$0.13520%+47%1.8%moderado$4,312
Elon Musk880-919$0.23030%+30%2.2%escalable$23,745
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.23529%+25%1.9%escalable$1,009
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.3%Sobre-dispersion: 25.47x42 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2506.1 ± 252.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.355100%+182%25.0%escalable$1,043
lleva 16 · proyeccion 269.1 ± 80.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
400-419$0.0022%+1343%0.5%cautela (no operable)$12,221
340-359$0.0046%+1238%1.4%cautela (no operable)$14,003
360-379$0.0045%+1201%1.1%cautela (no operable)$13,052
380-399$0.0033%+979%0.7%cautela (no operable)$9,970
320-339$0.0077%+897%1.7%cautela (no operable)$6,314
420-439$0.0021%+807%0.3%cautela (no operable)$9,165
300-319$0.0139%+547%1.9%cautela (no operable)$7,524
440-459$0.0021%+436%0.2%cautela (no operable)$9,642
280-299$0.02210%+327%1.9%cautela (no operable)$3,569
460-479$0.0020%+198%0.1%cautela (no operable)$8,120
260-279$0.03810%+158%1.6%cautela (no operable)$3,966
60-79$0.0030%+83%0.1%cautela (no operable)$41,791
240-259$0.06510%+48%0.8%cautela (no operable)$3,593
500+$0.0020%+37%0.0%cautela (no operable)$25,496
lleva 73 · proyeccion 200.3 ± 56.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0097%+689%1.5%cautela (no operable)$28,829
240-259$0.01510%+564%2.1%cautela (no operable)$23,831
300-319$0.0042%+545%0.5%cautela (no operable)$32,117
80-99$0.0042%+512%0.5%cautela (no operable)$111,122
280-299$0.0074%+451%0.8%cautela (no operable)$29,395
320-339$0.0031%+336%0.2%cautela (no operable)$28,548
220-239$0.02912%+315%2.4%cautela (no operable)$28,172
340-359$0.0020%+210%0.1%cautela (no operable)$26,425
200-219$0.06514%+112%1.9%cautela (no operable)$24,837
360-379$0.0020%+17%0.0%cautela (no operable)$24,597
lleva 796 · proyeccion 902.5 ± 52.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
960-999$0.01111%+859%2.4%cautela (no operable)$32,722
920-959$0.03024%+671%5.3%cautela (no operable)$26,274
780-799$0.0031%+397%0.3%cautela (no operable)$34,336
1000+$0.0063%+380%0.6%cautela (no operable)$24,790
880-919$0.23030%+30%2.2%escalable$23,745
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.3 ± 48.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0029%+6013%2.3%cautela (no operable)$2,089
165-189$0.0024%+2680%1.0%cautela (no operable)$3,495
115-139$0.01515%+966%3.5%cautela (no operable)$14,873
90-114$0.03120%+544%4.3%cautela (no operable)$4,650
65-89$0.13520%+47%1.8%moderado$4,312
lleva 40 · proyeccion 59.3 ± 22.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.0098%+794%1.8%cautela (no operable)$33,755
65-89$0.05532%+483%7.0%cautela (no operable)$48,648
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9%Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 23 · proyeccion 155.8 ± 36.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00517%+2931%4.0%cautela (no operable)$131
100-119$0.00510%+1703%2.4%cautela (no operable)$133
140-159$0.07921%+166%3.6%cautela (no operable)$242
60-79$0.0061%+129%0.2%cautela (no operable)$159
80-99$0.0324%+38%0.3%cautela (no operable)$112
lleva 101 · proyeccion 156.7 ± 23.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00518%+3418%4.3%cautela (no operable)$1,849
140-159$0.14231%+119%4.9%moderado$2,793
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 29 · proyeccion 157.2 ± 43.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00515%+2608%3.6%cautela (no operable)$393
100-119$0.00510%+1731%2.4%cautela (no operable)$290
80-99$0.0066%+822%1.2%cautela (no operable)$181
60-79$0.0032%+724%0.5%cautela (no operable)$193
140-159$0.05018%+258%3.4%cautela (no operable)$367
160-179$0.11517%+52%1.7%moderado$495
180-199$0.13014%+7%0.2%moderado$868
lleva 144 · proyeccion 210.2 ± 31.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.00311%+4324%2.7%cautela (no operable)$1,832
140-159$0.0034%+1252%0.9%cautela (no operable)$1,579
180-199$0.10520%+93%2.7%moderado$3,071
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6%Sobre-dispersion: 7.14x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 16 · proyeccion 119.8 ± 27.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.00516%+3065%3.9%cautela (no operable)$168
100-119$0.04527%+488%5.8%cautela (no operable)$129
120-139$0.12027%+125%4.3%moderado$179
lleva 118 · proyeccion 161.3 ± 17.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.05035%+604%8.0%cautela (no operable)$1,551
100-119$0.0021%+468%0.2%cautela (no operable)$795
160-179$0.37039%+6%0.8%escalable$131
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 84.0 ± 24.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.07019%+172%3.2%cautela (no operable)$405
40-59$0.04712%+162%2.0%cautela (no operable)$185
60-79$0.23527%+15%1.1%escalable$946
lleva 86 · proyeccion 125.8 ± 17.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.22343%+94%6.8%escalable$1,450
100-119$0.23529%+25%1.9%escalable$1,009
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.3%Sobre-dispersion: 2.82x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 36.0 ± 9.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.19535%+81%4.9%moderado$312
<20$0.0355%+33%0.3%cautela (no operable)$139
lleva 22 · proyeccion 37.8 ± 6.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.22040%+82%5.8%escalable$1,883
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.8%Sobre-dispersion: 4.88x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 8 · proyeccion 29.1 ± 10.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.55068%+23%7.0%escalable$87
<20$0.14017%+22%0.9%moderado$149
lleva 28 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 6.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.57063%+11%3.6%escalable$3,974
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1%Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.1 ± 8.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0064%+632%0.9%cautela (no operable)$251
15-19$0.01911%+440%2.2%cautela (no operable)$225
10-14$0.03818%+379%3.7%cautela (no operable)$284
5-9$0.13023%+74%2.8%moderado$637
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2.9 ± 6.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.02226%+1084%6.1%cautela (no operable)$775
10-14$0.02111%+416%2.2%cautela (no operable)$938
15-19$0.0062%+255%0.4%cautela (no operable)$630