CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.115	28%	+148%	4.8%	moderado	$2,542
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.210	48%	+130%	8.7%	escalable	$1,075
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.205	39%	+91%	5.9%	escalable	$1,624
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.175	33%	+89%	4.7%	moderado	$657
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.305	54%	+78%	8.6%	escalable	$2,257
Ted Cruz	160-179	$0.325	52%	+62%	7.4%	escalable	$1,912
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.355	53%	+50%	7.0%	escalable	$3,458
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.345	47%	+37%	4.8%	escalable	$4,178
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.160	20%	+25%	1.2%	moderado	$1,675
Donald Trump	140-159	$0.155	17%	+11%	0.5%	moderado	$1,200
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.230	25%	+9%	0.7%	escalable	$634
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.187	20%	+7%	0.4%	moderado	$975

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,386 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 52% del periodo

lleva 371 · proyeccion 987.5 ± 125.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.060	46%	+670%	10.7%	cautela (no operable)	$6,657
960-999	$0.025	13%	+405%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$9,620
920-959	$0.051	12%	+128%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$4,695

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 34 · proyeccion 244.8 ± 73.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
300-319	$0.002	7%	+3581%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$44,623
280-299	$0.003	9%	+2902%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$32,307
340-359	$0.002	4%	+2529%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$38,794
320-339	$0.003	6%	+2136%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$52,057
260-279	$0.009	10%	+977%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$12,051
240-259	$0.022	11%	+380%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$9,087
80-99	$0.003	1%	+370%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$59,978
220-239	$0.065	11%	+63%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,767
100-119	$0.018	2%	+12%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$74,193

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 133 · proyeccion 217.9 ± 46.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
280-299	$0.002	5%	+3444%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$80,280
260-279	$0.003	9%	+2997%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$76,411
240-259	$0.006	14%	+1984%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$83,591
300-319	$0.002	3%	+1591%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$79,049
140-159	$0.015	6%	+292%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$157,695
220-239	$0.043	16%	+279%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$59,103

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,543 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 35 · proyeccion 153.2 ± 36.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.005	18%	+3087%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$563
140-159	$0.009	21%	+2417%	5.2%	cautela (no operable)	$671
100-119	$0.005	11%	+1853%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$601
160-179	$0.029	20%	+585%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$976

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 141 · proyeccion 182.6 ± 21.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.017	30%	+1711%	7.2%	cautela (no operable)	$6,174

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x30 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 62 · proyeccion 171.6 ± 39.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.060	11%	+91%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$716
60-79	$0.004	1%	+88%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$3,629
100-119	$0.033	6%	+83%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$750
160-179	$0.160	20%	+25%	1.2%	moderado	$1,675
80-99	$0.021	2%	+14%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,108
140-159	$0.155	17%	+11%	0.5%	moderado	$1,200

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 141 · proyeccion 191.1 ± 26.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.005	9%	+1565%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$3,542
160-179	$0.075	21%	+185%	3.8%	cautela (no operable)	$5,029

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,659 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 45 · proyeccion 133.6 ± 23.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.175	33%	+89%	4.7%	moderado	$657
100-119	$0.187	20%	+7%	0.4%	moderado	$975

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 142 · proyeccion 172.8 ± 13.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.040	16%	+293%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,066
160-179	$0.325	52%	+62%	7.4%	escalable	$1,912

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,711 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 17 · proyeccion 85.3 ± 14.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.015	16%	+953%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$562
80-99	$0.210	48%	+130%	8.7%	escalable	$1,075
120-139	$0.006	1%	+71%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$322

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 49 · proyeccion 77.1 ± 9.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.003	1%	+272%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$276
40-59	$0.017	3%	+92%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,224
80-99	$0.205	39%	+91%	5.9%	escalable	$1,624

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 840 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 10 · proyeccion 39.1 ± 9.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.345	47%	+37%	4.8%	escalable	$4,178
<20	$0.013	2%	+20%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,436

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 26 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 5.6

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 461 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 3 · proyeccion 21.4 ± 9.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.009	3%	+254%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$463
20-39	$0.305	54%	+78%	8.6%	escalable	$2,257

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 13 · proyeccion 20.0 ± 6.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.355	53%	+50%	7.0%	escalable	$3,458

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.005	8%	+1313%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$280
20-24	$0.005	2%	+318%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$180
10-14	$0.065	17%	+165%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$400
5-9	$0.230	25%	+9%	0.7%	escalable	$634

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.003	6%	+2499%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,162
15-19	$0.002	0%	+222%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$982
5-9	$0.115	28%	+148%	4.8%	moderado	$2,542