CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-09 09:47 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.13575%+455%17.8%moderado$4,207
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.16042%+159%7.6%moderado$24
Volodymyr Zelenskyy120-139$0.10824%+125%3.8%moderado$20
Elon Musk65-89$0.12527%+112%4.0%moderado$38,426
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21546%+112%7.7%escalable$777
Ted Cruz140-159$0.23043%+89%6.6%escalable$2,625
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.34057%+67%8.6%escalable$709
Ted Cruz160-179$0.10518%+67%2.0%moderado$0
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.10517%+66%1.9%moderado$0
Donald Trump200+$0.26042%+62%5.4%escalable$1,030
Donald Trump160-179$0.14022%+54%2.2%moderado$2,335
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12018%+51%1.8%moderado$390
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 202 · proyeccion 1101.7 ± 151.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.13575%+455%17.8%moderado$4,207
960-999$0.0438%+77%0.9%cautela (no operable)$2,903
lleva 0 · proyeccion 363.1 ± 96.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.0028%+5124%1.9%cautela (no operable)$18,476
420-439$0.0027%+4249%1.6%cautela (no operable)$3,969
400-419$0.0037%+2355%1.8%cautela (no operable)$5,229
380-399$0.0048%+1670%1.9%cautela (no operable)$885
360-379$0.0078%+1000%1.9%cautela (no operable)$959
340-359$0.0098%+762%1.8%cautela (no operable)$965
320-339$0.0118%+641%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,435
300-319$0.0167%+343%1.4%cautela (no operable)$928
280-299$0.0296%+117%0.9%cautela (no operable)$3,748
lleva 50 · proyeccion 260.4 ± 73.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0025%+3372%1.3%cautela (no operable)$31,441
360-379$0.0024%+1705%0.8%cautela (no operable)$31,043
320-339$0.0047%+1644%1.6%cautela (no operable)$31,712
300-319$0.0059%+1478%2.0%cautela (no operable)$23,580
380-399$0.0022%+1450%0.5%cautela (no operable)$33,573
280-299$0.01310%+702%2.2%cautela (no operable)$21,808
260-279$0.03011%+253%2.0%cautela (no operable)$11,856
100-119$0.0041%+194%0.2%cautela (no operable)$55,828
120-139$0.0132%+65%0.2%cautela (no operable)$35,310
240-259$0.07511%+43%0.9%cautela (no operable)$7,912
lleva 0 · proyeccion 125.7 ± 56.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00212%+7676%2.9%cautela (no operable)$642
140-164$0.00316%+6180%3.9%cautela (no operable)$602
115-139$0.01117%+1562%4.1%cautela (no operable)$100
90-114$0.04516%+256%3.0%cautela (no operable)$261
lleva 134 · proyeccion 217.8 ± 46.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0035%+2003%1.3%cautela (no operable)$75,757
300-319$0.0022%+1555%0.6%cautela (no operable)$83,334
260-279$0.0069%+1325%2.2%cautela (no operable)$75,251
240-259$0.01714%+723%3.0%cautela (no operable)$66,425
140-159$0.0126%+387%1.2%cautela (no operable)$106,331
220-239$0.06517%+155%2.7%cautela (no operable)$69,367
lleva 18 · proyeccion 63.6 ± 34.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.0026%+3572%1.3%cautela (no operable)$28,035
90-114$0.01116%+1388%3.7%cautela (no operable)$37,615
65-89$0.12527%+112%4.0%moderado$38,426
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 184.7 ± 47.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0059%+1452%2.0%cautela (no operable)$102
100-119$0.0055%+766%1.1%cautela (no operable)$92
80-99$0.0052%+305%0.4%cautela (no operable)$129
140-159$0.03413%+276%2.4%cautela (no operable)$248
60-79$0.0051%+58%0.1%cautela (no operable)$159
lleva 33 · proyeccion 149.5 ± 37.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00418%+5149%4.5%cautela (no operable)$374
100-119$0.00412%+3345%2.9%cautela (no operable)$439
140-159$0.02121%+883%4.8%cautela (no operable)$774
lleva 118 · proyeccion 158.9 ± 22.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00415%+4263%3.7%cautela (no operable)$1,766
140-159$0.05032%+542%7.1%cautela (no operable)$4,842
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 189.1 ± 52.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.26042%+62%5.4%escalable$1,030
160-179$0.12514%+13%0.5%moderado$474
180-199$0.13515%+12%0.5%moderado$555
lleva 47 · proyeccion 155.6 ± 39.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0022%+882%0.4%cautela (no operable)$681
40-59$0.0021%+294%0.1%cautela (no operable)$842
100-119$0.03910%+163%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,253
80-99$0.0215%+137%0.8%cautela (no operable)$671
120-139$0.08016%+102%2.2%cautela (no operable)$1,468
140-159$0.16020%+23%1.1%moderado$936
160-179$0.16019%+17%0.8%moderado$1,292
lleva 141 · proyeccion 190.7 ± 26.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0419%+129%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,896
160-179$0.14022%+54%2.2%moderado$2,335
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 141.9 ± 28.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.10518%+67%2.0%moderado$0
140-159$0.18027%+49%2.7%moderado$173
120-139$0.20025%+27%1.7%escalable$0
lleva 35 · proyeccion 121.8 ± 21.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.06613%+96%1.7%cautela (no operable)$407
60-79$0.0182%+38%0.2%cautela (no operable)$124
lleva 129 · proyeccion 159.6 ± 13.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0116%+423%1.2%cautela (no operable)$886
140-159$0.23043%+89%6.6%escalable$2,625
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 109.6 ± 18.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.16042%+159%7.6%moderado$24
120-139$0.10824%+125%3.8%moderado$20
lleva 19 · proyeccion 87.0 ± 14.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12018%+51%1.8%moderado$390
80-99$0.43551%+16%3.1%escalable$514
lleva 49 · proyeccion 76.5 ± 9.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.25537%+43%3.7%escalable$2,246
40-59$0.0303%+7%0.1%cautela (no operable)$654
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 50.9 ± 12.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.07323%+215%4.3%cautela (no operable)$733
40-59$0.43058%+36%6.8%escalable$1,350
lleva 9 · proyeccion 38.3 ± 9.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0092%+134%0.3%cautela (no operable)$1,369
40-59$0.37044%+18%2.7%escalable$3,290
lleva 24 · proyeccion 34.9 ± 5.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.70579%+12%7.2%escalable$4,785
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.9 ± 12.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.03022%+618%4.8%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.34057%+67%8.6%escalable$709
lleva 0 · proyeccion 18.9 ± 10.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0052%+282%0.4%cautela (no operable)$217
20-39$0.21546%+112%7.7%escalable$777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.3 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.03516%+365%3.3%cautela (no operable)$2,924
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.3 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0052%+306%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12
10-14$0.10517%+66%1.9%moderado$0
15-19$0.10514%+34%1.0%moderado$0
25-29$0.0445%+15%0.2%cautela (no operable)$70
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.04017%+336%3.5%cautela (no operable)$229
15-19$0.0229%+299%1.7%cautela (no operable)$113
20-24$0.0153%+119%0.5%cautela (no operable)$112
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.8 ± 4.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.07023%+233%4.4%cautela (no operable)$4,116
10-14$0.0165%+226%0.9%cautela (no operable)$2,408