CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.165	75%	+353%	17.4%	moderado	$3,516
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.130	39%	+201%	7.5%	moderado	$0
Donald Trump	200+	$0.225	53%	+135%	9.8%	escalable	$778
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.195	46%	+135%	8.2%	moderado	$2,049
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.235	50%	+114%	8.7%	escalable	$771
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.140	25%	+80%	3.2%	moderado	$4,026
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.330	55%	+67%	8.2%	escalable	$8
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.150	23%	+56%	2.5%	moderado	$2,208
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.160	25%	+56%	2.7%	moderado	$2,707
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.225	31%	+39%	2.9%	escalable	$215
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.110	15%	+37%	1.1%	moderado	$276
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.130	17%	+31%	1.2%	moderado	$0

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,185 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 26% del periodo

lleva 170 · proyeccion 1102.5 ± 154.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.165	75%	+353%	17.4%	moderado	$3,516

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 395.5 ± 100.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
500+	$0.002	15%	+9930%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$11,251
400-419	$0.002	8%	+5131%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$240
420-439	$0.002	7%	+4889%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$190
380-399	$0.003	8%	+3064%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$200
360-379	$0.005	8%	+1293%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$462
340-359	$0.007	7%	+852%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$187
320-339	$0.013	6%	+411%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$175
300-319	$0.017	6%	+234%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$451
280-299	$0.025	5%	+79%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,513

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 260.6 ± 78.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
360-379	$0.002	4%	+1852%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$22,561
340-359	$0.003	5%	+1687%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$21,118
380-399	$0.002	3%	+1677%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$31,013
320-339	$0.004	7%	+1434%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$15,227
300-319	$0.009	8%	+881%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$13,618
280-299	$0.017	9%	+456%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$13,580
60-79	$0.002	1%	+260%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$23,835
80-99	$0.003	1%	+222%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$37,701
260-279	$0.037	10%	+168%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$5,180
100-119	$0.009	2%	+80%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$40,523
240-259	$0.075	10%	+33%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$4,793

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 102 · proyeccion 218.0 ± 54.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
320-339	$0.002	2%	+1124%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$40,647
280-299	$0.006	6%	+857%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$48,685
300-319	$0.004	4%	+803%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$55,622
260-279	$0.015	9%	+546%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$56,239
240-259	$0.038	12%	+225%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$45,957
120-139	$0.013	4%	+192%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$82,446
220-239	$0.085	14%	+68%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$45,569

Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 77.8 ± 44.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.002	6%	+2771%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$5,054
115-139	$0.007	12%	+1529%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$6,526
90-114	$0.037	19%	+417%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$7,224
65-89	$0.180	22%	+23%	1.2%	moderado	$5,759

Elon Musk # tweets August 6 - August 8, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 36 · proyeccion 40.5 ± 10.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
65-89	$0.004	1%	+227%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$88,473

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,326 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 196.8 ± 48.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.005	1%	+165%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$97
120-139	$0.040	6%	+60%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$61
160-179	$0.090	14%	+55%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$160

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 149.7 ± 39.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.004	18%	+4956%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$361
100-119	$0.004	12%	+3343%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$426
140-159	$0.027	20%	+646%	4.5%	cautela (no operable)	$581

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 106 · proyeccion 159.1 ± 25.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.002	16%	+7930%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,029
100-119	$0.002	5%	+3170%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$463
140-159	$0.045	29%	+541%	6.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,710

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,054 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 203.5 ± 54.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.225	53%	+135%	9.8%	escalable	$778
180-199	$0.115	14%	+23%	0.8%	moderado	$261
160-179	$0.110	12%	+10%	0.3%	moderado	$279

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 24 · proyeccion 147.5 ± 42.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.003	1%	+434%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$453
100-119	$0.059	13%	+112%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,050
80-99	$0.035	7%	+109%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$578
20-39	$0.004	0%	+16%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$3,128
140-159	$0.170	19%	+10%	0.5%	moderado	$785

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 118 · proyeccion 182.6 ± 30.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.018	6%	+241%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,870
140-159	$0.060	15%	+143%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,506
160-179	$0.150	23%	+56%	2.5%	moderado	$2,208
180-199	$0.235	25%	+6%	0.5%	escalable	$2,883

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,469 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.8 ± 29.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.025	5%	+100%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$40

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 117.9 ± 23.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.055	16%	+200%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$376
60-79	$0.018	4%	+138%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$97
100-119	$0.225	31%	+39%	2.9%	escalable	$215

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 115 · proyeccion 155.8 ± 15.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.011	13%	+1094%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$802
140-159	$0.195	46%	+135%	8.2%	moderado	$2,049
100-119	$0.005	1%	+56%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$517

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,639 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 114.8 ± 18.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.040	31%	+669%	7.0%	cautela (no operable)	$0
100-119	$0.130	39%	+201%	7.5%	moderado	$0
140-159	$0.038	9%	+125%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$0

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 11 · proyeccion 84.6 ± 15.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.110	15%	+37%	1.1%	moderado	$276

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 41 · proyeccion 74.0 ± 10.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.235	29%	+22%	1.7%	escalable	$1,764
40-59	$0.070	7%	+5%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$445

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 798 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 55.7 ± 12.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.065	35%	+440%	7.7%	cautela (no operable)	$713
40-59	$0.430	51%	+20%	3.7%	escalable	$1,275

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.1 ± 10.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.025	4%	+54%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,125
40-59	$0.310	39%	+27%	3.0%	escalable	$2,857

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 33.7 ± 6.8

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 31.5 ± 13.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.041	25%	+526%	5.5%	cautela (no operable)	$0
20-39	$0.330	55%	+67%	8.2%	escalable	$8

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 20.5 ± 10.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.235	50%	+114%	8.7%	escalable	$771

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 14.8 ± 6.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.160	25%	+56%	2.7%	moderado	$2,707

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.9 ± 11.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.060	14%	+139%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$0
10-14	$0.130	17%	+31%	1.2%	moderado	$0
25-29	$0.049	6%	+17%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$70

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.9 ± 8.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.013	4%	+248%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$82
10-14	$0.060	18%	+195%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$199
15-19	$0.036	10%	+186%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$83

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 2.4 ± 5.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.025	9%	+256%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$2,119
15-19	$0.006	2%	+149%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,321
5-9	$0.140	25%	+80%	3.2%	moderado	$4,026