CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.110	28%	+159%	4.9%	moderado	$2,532
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.210	47%	+126%	8.4%	escalable	$1,075
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.200	37%	+86%	5.4%	escalable	$1,588
Ted Cruz	160-179	$0.300	53%	+77%	8.3%	escalable	$1,492
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.305	51%	+68%	7.5%	escalable	$2,252
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.345	47%	+37%	4.8%	escalable	$4,155
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.260	33%	+28%	2.5%	escalable	$626
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.160	20%	+25%	1.2%	moderado	$1,663
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.395	48%	+21%	3.4%	escalable	$3,439
Donald Trump	140-159	$0.155	17%	+10%	0.5%	moderado	$1,200
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.230	25%	+9%	0.7%	escalable	$634
Donald Trump	180-199	$0.275	29%	+6%	0.6%	escalable	$3,160

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,381 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x41 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 52% del periodo

lleva 367 · proyeccion 989.3 ± 126.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.060	47%	+680%	10.8%	cautela (no operable)	$6,657
960-999	$0.025	13%	+392%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$9,620
920-959	$0.050	12%	+133%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$4,695

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 30 · proyeccion 246.3 ± 74.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
300-319	$0.003	7%	+2888%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$42,688
340-359	$0.002	4%	+2641%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$38,794
320-339	$0.003	6%	+2198%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$52,057
280-299	$0.004	9%	+1909%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$31,007
260-279	$0.011	10%	+826%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$11,724
240-259	$0.033	11%	+229%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$8,134
80-99	$0.004	1%	+161%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$59,681
220-239	$0.065	10%	+60%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,478

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 129 · proyeccion 219.4 ± 48.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
280-299	$0.002	6%	+3760%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$79,003
260-279	$0.003	10%	+3119%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$74,323
300-319	$0.002	3%	+1852%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$76,188
240-259	$0.010	14%	+1258%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$80,202
220-239	$0.046	16%	+250%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$56,747
140-159	$0.029	6%	+104%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$151,022

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,543 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1%Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x25 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 35 · proyeccion 153.3 ± 36.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.005	18%	+3085%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$563
80-99	$0.003	5%	+1866%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$750
100-119	$0.005	11%	+1851%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$601
140-159	$0.011	21%	+1845%	5.1%	cautela (no operable)	$671
160-179	$0.029	20%	+586%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$976
60-79	$0.003	2%	+573%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$784

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 141 · proyeccion 182.7 ± 21.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.051	30%	+485%	6.5%	cautela (no operable)	$5,512

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6%Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x30 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 62 · proyeccion 171.7 ± 39.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.034	6%	+77%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$750
120-139	$0.065	11%	+76%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$704
160-179	$0.160	20%	+25%	1.2%	moderado	$1,663
140-159	$0.155	17%	+10%	0.5%	moderado	$1,200
60-79	$0.007	1%	+7%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,518

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 141 · proyeccion 191.2 ± 26.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.005	9%	+1560%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$3,529
160-179	$0.075	21%	+184%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$5,029
180-199	$0.275	29%	+6%	0.6%	escalable	$3,160

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,659 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x23 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 43 · proyeccion 132.0 ± 23.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.260	33%	+28%	2.5%	escalable	$626

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 140 · proyeccion 171.2 ± 13.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.045	19%	+315%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$2,066
160-179	$0.300	53%	+77%	8.3%	escalable	$1,492

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,711 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4%Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 15 · proyeccion 84.7 ± 15.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.015	15%	+910%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$562
120-139	$0.004	1%	+148%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$322
80-99	$0.210	47%	+126%	8.4%	escalable	$1,075

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 47 · proyeccion 76.6 ± 9.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.003	1%	+210%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$276
40-59	$0.017	4%	+141%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,224
80-99	$0.200	37%	+86%	5.4%	escalable	$1,588

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 839 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 10 · proyeccion 39.1 ± 9.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.345	47%	+37%	4.8%	escalable	$4,155
<20	$0.013	2%	+20%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,436

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 26 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 5.6

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 460 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x21 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 2 · proyeccion 20.5 ± 9.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.013	3%	+106%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$463
20-39	$0.305	51%	+68%	7.5%	escalable	$2,252

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 12 · proyeccion 19.1 ± 6.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.395	48%	+21%	3.4%	escalable	$3,439

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.0 ± 7.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.005	8%	+1313%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$280
20-24	$0.005	2%	+318%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$180
10-14	$0.060	17%	+187%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$400
5-9	$0.230	25%	+9%	0.7%	escalable	$634

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.8 ± 4.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.004	6%	+1525%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,162
5-9	$0.110	28%	+159%	4.9%	moderado	$2,532
15-19	$0.002	0%	+142%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$982