CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-09 19:06 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.15073%+389%17.2%moderado$4,229
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12040%+234%8.0%moderado$74
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.13541%+206%8.0%moderado$777
The White House140-159$0.13734%+151%6.0%moderado$5,539
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.10021%+112%3.1%moderado$4,979
Donald Trump160-179$0.13026%+99%3.7%moderado$2,430
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.32558%+78%9.3%escalable$757
Donald Trump120-139$0.10518%+70%2.1%moderado$1,468
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.10518%+67%2.0%moderado$0
Donald Trump200+$0.24536%+45%3.7%escalable$1,030
Ted Cruz140-159$0.18026%+44%2.4%moderado$216
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.43060%+39%7.3%escalable$1,350
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 29% del periodo
lleva 207 · proyeccion 1093.4 ± 150.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.15073%+389%17.2%moderado$4,229
960-999$0.0648%+25%0.4%cautela (no operable)$2,968
Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 350.4 ± 94.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
420-439$0.0026%+3862%1.4%cautela (no operable)$4,079
500+$0.0026%+3739%1.4%cautela (no operable)$20,143
400-419$0.0037%+2672%1.7%cautela (no operable)$5,258
380-399$0.0038%+2476%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,062
360-379$0.0078%+1000%1.9%cautela (no operable)$983
340-359$0.0098%+890%1.9%cautela (no operable)$965
320-339$0.0098%+764%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,528
300-319$0.0178%+365%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,434
280-299$0.0267%+163%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,646
260-279$0.0556%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$478
Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 55 · proyeccion 253.0 ± 71.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
340-359$0.0024%+2889%1.1%cautela (no operable)$39,802
320-339$0.0036%+1999%1.5%cautela (no operable)$40,906
300-319$0.0048%+1716%1.9%cautela (no operable)$27,141
380-399$0.0022%+1098%0.4%cautela (no operable)$33,965
280-299$0.01110%+834%2.2%cautela (no operable)$23,795
260-279$0.03011%+263%2.0%cautela (no operable)$12,954
100-119$0.0051%+169%0.2%cautela (no operable)$59,319
240-259$0.06511%+72%1.2%cautela (no operable)$10,265
120-139$0.0192%+28%0.1%cautela (no operable)$51,823
Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 113.3 ± 53.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.0029%+6056%2.3%cautela (no operable)$711
140-164$0.00314%+5600%3.5%cautela (no operable)$662
115-139$0.01618%+1012%4.1%cautela (no operable)$1,053
90-114$0.04518%+299%3.5%cautela (no operable)$507
Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 139 · proyeccion 210.5 ± 42.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
280-299$0.0023%+2201%0.8%cautela (no operable)$93,822
260-279$0.0047%+1511%1.7%cautela (no operable)$86,225
240-259$0.01712%+644%2.7%cautela (no operable)$86,531
140-159$0.0157%+370%1.4%cautela (no operable)$121,172
220-239$0.04517%+273%3.2%cautela (no operable)$80,276
Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 100% del periodo
lleva 23 · proyeccion 56.3 ± 29.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
90-114$0.00510%+1986%2.5%cautela (no operable)$56,411
65-89$0.06026%+336%5.4%cautela (no operable)$52,083
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 179.2 ± 46.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00510%+1664%2.3%cautela (no operable)$120
100-119$0.0056%+918%1.3%cautela (no operable)$120
80-99$0.0053%+389%0.5%cautela (no operable)$139
140-159$0.07014%+101%1.9%cautela (no operable)$268
60-79$0.0051%+95%0.1%cautela (no operable)$169
White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 38 · proyeccion 149.0 ± 36.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00419%+5275%4.6%cautela (no operable)$414
100-119$0.00312%+3961%3.0%cautela (no operable)$453
140-159$0.03222%+587%4.8%cautela (no operable)$1,046
White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 123 · proyeccion 158.4 ± 20.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00415%+3639%3.6%cautela (no operable)$1,770
140-159$0.13734%+151%6.0%moderado$5,539
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.43x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 180.7 ± 51.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.24536%+45%3.7%escalable$1,030
20-39$0.0020%+37%0.0%cautela (no operable)$567
60-79$0.0121%+25%0.1%cautela (no operable)$197
160-179$0.12515%+21%0.8%moderado$474
180-199$0.14015%+9%0.4%moderado$555
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 50 · proyeccion 150.4 ± 38.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0076%+749%1.3%cautela (no operable)$671
60-79$0.0052%+356%0.5%cautela (no operable)$917
40-59$0.0021%+346%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,343
100-119$0.03612%+223%2.1%cautela (no operable)$1,353
120-139$0.10518%+70%2.1%moderado$1,468
140-159$0.17021%+22%1.1%moderado$936
160-179$0.16518%+11%0.5%moderado$1,359
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 144 · proyeccion 185.5 ± 24.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.01811%+516%2.4%cautela (no operable)$3,133
160-179$0.13026%+99%3.7%moderado$2,430
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 138.1 ± 27.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.05015%+204%2.7%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.18026%+44%2.4%moderado$216
120-139$0.20027%+35%2.2%escalable$0
180-199$0.0455%+20%0.2%cautela (no operable)$0
Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 37 · proyeccion 120.0 ± 21.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0183%+51%0.2%cautela (no operable)$124
80-99$0.10414%+34%1.0%moderado$417
120-139$0.28533%+15%1.5%escalable$373
100-119$0.28532%+13%1.3%escalable$344
Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 131 · proyeccion 157.9 ± 12.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0027%+4254%1.6%cautela (no operable)$960
140-159$0.41549%+17%3.0%escalable$2,714
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 102.7 ± 17.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12040%+234%8.0%moderado$74
120-139$0.04915%+212%2.7%cautela (no operable)$40
Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 20 · proyeccion 81.6 ± 13.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.36546%+27%3.9%escalable$657
Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 50 · proyeccion 71.1 ± 8.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.13015%+12%0.5%moderado$2,398
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 49.0 ± 12.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.02618%+593%4.0%cautela (no operable)$753
40-59$0.43060%+39%7.3%escalable$1,350
NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 12 · proyeccion 39.3 ± 8.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0041%+196%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,453
40-59$0.42548%+13%2.3%escalable$3,933
NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 27 · proyeccion 35.9 ± 5.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.71576%+6%4.0%escalable$5,133
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 28.6 ± 12.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.02319%+705%4.2%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.32558%+78%9.3%escalable$757
CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 17.7 ± 9.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.13541%+206%8.0%moderado$777
40-59$0.0061%+113%0.2%cautela (no operable)$358
CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 6 · proyeccion 12.0 ± 5.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0299%+220%1.7%cautela (no operable)$3,084
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.0 ± 10.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0052%+260%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12
15-19$0.04514%+210%2.5%cautela (no operable)$0
20-24$0.0509%+79%1.0%cautela (no operable)$11
10-14$0.10518%+67%2.0%moderado$0
25-29$0.0435%+9%0.1%cautela (no operable)$70
Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 43% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 8.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.07517%+124%2.5%cautela (no operable)$319
20-24$0.0173%+67%0.3%cautela (no operable)$117
15-19$0.0658%+26%0.5%cautela (no operable)$128
Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 86% del periodo
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.5 ± 4.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0143%+133%0.5%cautela (no operable)$2,910
5-9$0.10021%+112%3.1%moderado$4,979