CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-11 05:30 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.10545%+329%9.7%moderado$0
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.19546%+138%8.4%moderado$0
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.25058%+131%10.9%escalable$1,246
The White House160-179$0.11025%+128%4.0%moderado$2,911
Elon Musk65-89$0.11024%+122%3.8%moderado$13,512
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.12025%+106%3.6%moderado$74
The White House200+$0.34570%+104%13.7%escalable$0
Ted Cruz140-159$0.16531%+88%4.3%moderado$4,608
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.10018%+78%2.2%moderado$99
Donald Trump200+$0.33555%+63%7.9%escalable$0
The White House160-179$0.31550%+59%6.8%escalable$14,292
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.15525%+58%2.7%moderado$749
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 236 · proyeccion 1068.5 ± 145.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.08568%+702%16.3%cautela (no operable)$4,602
960-999$0.0309%+202%1.6%cautela (no operable)$4,126
920-959$0.0657%+15%0.2%cautela (no operable)$2,462
lleva 0 · proyeccion 424.1 ± 104.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.01123%+2133%5.7%cautela (no operable)$49
420-439$0.0118%+628%1.7%cautela (no operable)$49
400-419$0.0118%+621%1.6%cautela (no operable)$49
440-459$0.0117%+607%1.6%cautela (no operable)$49
380-399$0.0117%+590%1.6%cautela (no operable)$49
460-479$0.0117%+563%1.5%cautela (no operable)$49
480-499$0.0116%+498%1.3%cautela (no operable)$49
360-379$0.0127%+456%1.4%cautela (no operable)$37
340-359$0.0376%+58%0.6%cautela (no operable)$37
320-339$0.0435%+19%0.2%cautela (no operable)$42
lleva 0 · proyeccion 297.5 ± 87.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
380-399$0.0025%+3398%1.3%cautela (no operable)$4,920
400-419$0.0024%+2579%1.0%cautela (no operable)$10,775
360-379$0.0046%+1758%1.5%cautela (no operable)$2,408
340-359$0.0048%+1599%1.8%cautela (no operable)$5,094
320-339$0.0069%+1323%2.0%cautela (no operable)$2,197
440-459$0.0022%+1243%0.5%cautela (no operable)$11,250
500+$0.0021%+586%0.2%cautela (no operable)$23,459
300-319$0.0159%+483%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,618
280-299$0.0259%+264%1.7%cautela (no operable)$7,981
260-279$0.0459%+93%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,207
80-99$0.0031%+79%0.1%cautela (no operable)$17,975
lleva 0 · proyeccion 187.0 ± 69.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240+$0.00222%+14816%5.6%cautela (no operable)$262
165-189$0.00214%+6998%3.5%cautela (no operable)$571
190-214$0.00214%+6906%3.5%cautela (no operable)$48
215-239$0.00212%+5976%3.0%cautela (no operable)$58
140-164$0.00313%+4956%3.1%cautela (no operable)$571
115-139$0.00910%+941%2.3%cautela (no operable)$756
90-114$0.0457%+51%0.6%cautela (no operable)$69
lleva 84 · proyeccion 229.7 ± 61.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0023%+2205%0.8%cautela (no operable)$45,999
300-319$0.0036%+2130%1.3%cautela (no operable)$41,057
280-299$0.0048%+1696%1.9%cautela (no operable)$43,175
260-279$0.00911%+1009%2.4%cautela (no operable)$28,654
240-259$0.02612%+366%2.5%cautela (no operable)$25,991
100-119$0.0052%+281%0.3%cautela (no operable)$78,730
220-239$0.07513%+74%1.5%cautela (no operable)$20,088
lleva 9 · proyeccion 70.0 ± 39.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.0039%+3524%2.2%cautela (no operable)$7,636
90-114$0.00718%+2310%4.4%cautela (no operable)$10,668
140-164$0.0023%+1954%0.7%cautela (no operable)$6,672
65-89$0.11024%+122%3.8%moderado$13,512
lleva 168 · proyeccion 187.1 ± 22.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
220-239$0.0026%+4077%1.5%cautela (no operable)$158,314
200-219$0.01822%+1136%5.1%cautela (no operable)$186,575
180-199$0.32535%+7%0.8%escalable$164,223
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.81x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 227.1 ± 51.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.34570%+104%13.7%escalable$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.5 ± 42.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00416%+3993%4.0%cautela (no operable)$605
100-119$0.00412%+2462%2.8%cautela (no operable)$611
80-99$0.0057%+1203%1.5%cautela (no operable)$634
140-159$0.01519%+1104%4.3%cautela (no operable)$885
60-79$0.0053%+492%0.6%cautela (no operable)$660
160-179$0.15517%+10%0.5%moderado$1,097
lleva 87 · proyeccion 169.7 ± 31.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00511%+2157%2.7%cautela (no operable)$1,157
140-159$0.01721%+1143%4.8%cautela (no operable)$1,880
160-179$0.11025%+128%4.0%moderado$2,911
lleva 172 · proyeccion 179.1 ± 9.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.31550%+59%6.8%escalable$14,292
200+$0.0111%+23%0.1%cautela (no operable)$15,347
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 205.7 ± 54.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.33555%+63%7.9%escalable$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 146.8 ± 46.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0022%+851%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,050
60-79$0.0074%+471%0.9%cautela (no operable)$342
20-39$0.0021%+367%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,398
80-99$0.0408%+100%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,021
120-139$0.14516%+11%0.5%moderado$287
lleva 90 · proyeccion 156.4 ± 30.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0128%+597%1.8%cautela (no operable)$2,155
80-99$0.0043%+563%0.6%cautela (no operable)$2,282
120-139$0.06518%+171%3.0%cautela (no operable)$2,177
lleva 184 · proyeccion 191.5 ± 10.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.7 ± 30.9
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.6 ± 25.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0216%+184%1.0%cautela (no operable)$520
80-99$0.13018%+37%1.4%moderado$200
40-59$0.0091%+23%0.1%cautela (no operable)$300
lleva 63 · proyeccion 124.3 ± 18.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.23031%+34%2.5%escalable$452
120-139$0.31040%+28%3.2%escalable$588
lleva 157 · proyeccion 162.2 ± 5.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.16531%+88%4.3%moderado$4,608
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 130.7 ± 20.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.32538%+18%2.1%escalable$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.1 ± 16.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.12025%+106%3.6%moderado$74
120-139$0.0254%+51%0.3%cautela (no operable)$90
80-99$0.41045%+10%1.8%escalable$247
lleva 30 · proyeccion 79.1 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0485%+15%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,820
80-99$0.40044%+10%1.6%escalable$958
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.5 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 60.3 ± 13.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.10545%+329%9.7%moderado$0
40-59$0.34042%+23%2.9%escalable$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.9 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0132%+64%0.2%cautela (no operable)$926
40-59$0.35553%+50%6.8%escalable$3,865
lleva 19 · proyeccion 39.3 ± 7.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.41049%+18%3.2%escalable$4,366
<20$0.0041%+12%0.0%cautela (no operable)$1,660
lleva 34 · proyeccion 35.9 ± 2.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0296%+114%0.9%cautela (no operable)$7,106
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 14.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.02037%+1758%9.0%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.19546%+138%8.4%moderado$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.2 ± 11.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.00611%+1576%2.6%cautela (no operable)$368
20-39$0.25058%+131%10.9%escalable$1,246
lleva 0 · proyeccion 14.2 ± 8.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.04427%+512%6.0%cautela (no operable)$992
lleva 6 · proyeccion 8.6 ± 3.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 11.8 ± 12.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.3 ± 10.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+150%0.2%cautela (no operable)$100
20-24$0.0358%+135%1.2%cautela (no operable)$100
15-19$0.06013%+124%2.0%cautela (no operable)$88
10-14$0.10018%+78%2.2%moderado$99
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02916%+430%3.3%cautela (no operable)$470
15-19$0.0296%+123%0.9%cautela (no operable)$279
5-9$0.15525%+58%2.7%moderado$749
20-24$0.0112%+51%0.1%cautela (no operable)$275
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.8 ± 3.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.03912%+219%2.2%cautela (no operable)$6,311
10-14$0.0030%+50%0.0%cautela (no operable)$3,644