Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.215 47% +120% 8.2% escalable $1,075 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.175 33% +89% 4.7% moderado $657 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.305 54% +77% 8.4% escalable $2,257 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.320 53% +64% 7.6% escalable $1,912 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.200 33% +64% 4.0% escalable $1,647 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.355 53% +48% 6.6% escalable $3,458 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.355 47% +33% 4.5% escalable $4,378 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.160 20% +25% 1.2% moderado $1,697 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.155 17% +12% 0.5% moderado $1,200 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.230 25% +10% 0.7% escalable $634
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,386 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 371 · proyeccion 985.0 ± 125.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 45% +656% 10.5% cautela (no operable) $6,663 960-999 $0.025 13% +397% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $9,620 920-959 $0.052 12% +128% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $4,695 880-919 $0.075 10% +34% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $4,085
lleva 34 · proyeccion 242.2 ± 73.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 7% +3473% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $44,623 280-299 $0.003 9% +2849% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $32,307 340-359 $0.002 4% +2385% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $38,794 320-339 $0.003 5% +2043% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $52,057 260-279 $0.009 10% +970% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $12,051 80-99 $0.003 1% +395% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $59,978 240-259 $0.022 11% +382% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $9,174 220-239 $0.065 11% +65% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $7,838
lleva 133 · proyeccion 215.4 ± 45.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.003 9% +3378% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $77,193 280-299 $0.002 5% +3085% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $80,569 240-259 $0.006 13% +1920% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $84,402 300-319 $0.002 2% +1351% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $79,588 220-239 $0.036 16% +351% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $60,963 140-159 $0.018 6% +258% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $161,895
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,543 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 35 · proyeccion 153.2 ± 36.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 18% +3087% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $563 100-119 $0.005 11% +1853% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $601 140-159 $0.011 21% +1845% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $771 160-179 $0.029 20% +585% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $976
lleva 141 · proyeccion 182.6 ± 21.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.017 30% +1711% 7.2% cautela (no operable) $6,181
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 171.1 ± 39.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 1% +208% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $3,629 120-139 $0.060 12% +94% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $716 100-119 $0.033 6% +86% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $750 160-179 $0.160 20% +25% 1.2% moderado $1,697 80-99 $0.021 2% +14% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,108 140-159 $0.155 17% +12% 0.5% moderado $1,200
lleva 141 · proyeccion 190.5 ± 26.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 9% +1606% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $3,549 160-179 $0.080 22% +172% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $5,029
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,659 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 45 · proyeccion 133.6 ± 23.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.175 33% +89% 4.7% moderado $657
lleva 142 · proyeccion 172.7 ± 13.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.050 16% +216% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $2,072 160-179 $0.320 53% +64% 7.6% escalable $1,912
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,711 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 83.7 ± 14.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.015 13% +781% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $562 80-99 $0.215 47% +120% 8.2% escalable $1,075 120-139 $0.004 1% +57% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $322
lleva 49 · proyeccion 75.5 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.017 4% +150% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $1,224 80-99 $0.200 33% +64% 4.0% escalable $1,647 100-119 $0.004 0% +16% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $276
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 840 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 10 · proyeccion 39.1 ± 9.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.009 2% +64% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,541 40-59 $0.355 47% +33% 4.5% escalable $4,378
lleva 26 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 5.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 461 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 21.3 ± 9.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.010 3% +222% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.305 54% +77% 8.4% escalable $2,257
lleva 13 · proyeccion 19.9 ± 6.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.355 53% +48% 6.6% escalable $3,458
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 8% +1056% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 2% +292% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $180 10-14 $0.055 17% +210% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $400 5-9 $0.230 25% +10% 0.7% escalable $634
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.7 ± 4.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.007 6% +729% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,162 5-9 $0.090 28% +212% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $2,542 15-19 $0.003 0% +47% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $982
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.