Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol The White House 180-199 $0.165 38% +128% 6.3% moderado $13,468 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 52% +79% 8.0% escalable $3,753 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.305 53% +73% 8.0% escalable $5,636 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.110 19% +73% 2.2% moderado $325 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.340 57% +67% 8.6% escalable $1,223 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.265 41% +56% 5.0% escalable $1,140 Ted Cruz 80-99 $0.105 16% +54% 1.6% moderado $46 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.305 45% +49% 5.3% escalable $579 Elon Musk 90-114 $0.170 24% +42% 2.1% moderado $33,500 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.460 63% +36% 7.7% escalable $2,789 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.275 34% +23% 2.2% escalable $5,422 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.320 39% +21% 2.5% escalable $891
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,335 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.65x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 322 · proyeccion 1028.3 ± 134.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.080 58% +631% 13.7% cautela (no operable) $6,107 960-999 $0.032 11% +246% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $9,154 920-959 $0.080 10% +20% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $4,303
lleva 0 · proyeccion 298.8 ± 87.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 5% +3455% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $2,080 400-419 $0.002 4% +2637% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $3,009 360-379 $0.003 7% +2530% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $3,708 320-339 $0.005 9% +1456% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $5,118 340-359 $0.005 8% +1300% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,959 300-319 $0.011 9% +760% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $7,675 500+ $0.002 1% +630% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $18,749 280-299 $0.021 9% +341% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $7,448 80-99 $0.003 1% +111% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $21,958 260-279 $0.045 9% +91% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $1,564
lleva 84 · proyeccion 256.7 ± 66.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 320-339 $0.002 7% +4297% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $19,511 340-359 $0.002 5% +2934% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $22,816 300-319 $0.006 9% +1244% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $33,110 280-299 $0.013 11% +747% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $28,295 260-279 $0.029 12% +311% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $26,670 120-139 $0.005 2% +254% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $60,825 240-259 $0.079 12% +50% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $21,988
lleva 32 · proyeccion 94.6 ± 40.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <40 $0.002 8% +4949% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $53,909 140-164 $0.003 9% +3529% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $18,186 165-189 $0.002 3% +2008% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $11,117 115-139 $0.021 18% +750% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $23,443 90-114 $0.170 24% +42% 2.1% moderado $33,500
lleva 170 · proyeccion 191.3 ± 23.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.004 9% +2594% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $211,231 200-219 $0.033 25% +666% 5.6% cautela (no operable) $238,543
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,500 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.27x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.7 ± 41.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.005 11% +1934% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $255 120-139 $0.010 16% +1534% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $229 140-159 $0.013 19% +1361% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $263 80-99 $0.005 6% +1009% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $371 60-79 $0.005 3% +381% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $404 160-179 $0.080 18% +120% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $400
lleva 98 · proyeccion 174.1 ± 29.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.006 19% +2829% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $2,654 160-179 $0.013 26% +1856% 6.3% cautela (no operable) $2,995
lleva 195 · proyeccion 202.2 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.165 38% +128% 6.3% moderado $13,468
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,204 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 148.4 ± 45.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 2% +1074% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $525 60-79 $0.006 4% +521% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $106 80-99 $0.051 8% +52% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $341 100-119 $0.084 12% +45% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $426 20-39 $0.004 1% +42% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $417
lleva 75 · proyeccion 163.7 ± 35.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 3% +489% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $3,574 120-139 $0.045 14% +214% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $1,093 60-79 $0.003 1% +188% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,907 100-119 $0.043 7% +68% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,488
lleva 169 · proyeccion 177.3 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.305 53% +73% 8.0% escalable $5,636
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,599 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 5.46x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.0 ± 25.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 5% +916% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $18 40-59 $0.005 1% +78% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $388 80-99 $0.105 16% +54% 1.6% moderado $46 120-139 $0.250 28% +13% 1.1% escalable $228
lleva 86 · proyeccion 147.3 ± 18.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.265 41% +56% 5.0% escalable $1,140 80-99 $0.003 0% +46% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $646 100-119 $0.051 6% +17% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $553
lleva 154 · proyeccion 160.1 ± 5.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,692 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 89.7 ± 16.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 3% +768% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $271 100-119 $0.046 24% +417% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $452 80-99 $0.305 45% +49% 5.3% escalable $579
lleva 28 · proyeccion 77.1 ± 12.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.320 39% +21% 2.5% escalable $891
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.4 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 827 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.4 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 52% +79% 8.0% escalable $3,753
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.016 2% +36% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $3,026 40-59 $0.275 34% +23% 2.2% escalable $5,422
lleva 32 · proyeccion 33.6 ± 2.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.1 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.010 9% +782% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.340 57% +67% 8.6% escalable $1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 22.6 ± 8.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.460 63% +36% 7.7% escalable $2,789
lleva 10 · proyeccion 12.1 ± 3.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.002 1% +640% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,191
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.6 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.050 13% +158% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.110 19% +73% 2.2% moderado $325 20-24 $0.052 7% +26% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 7.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.018 18% +938% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $499 15-19 $0.015 8% +386% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $311 20-24 $0.005 2% +286% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $320
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.5 ± 2.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.033 21% +526% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $1,440
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).