CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-08 21:14 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk1000+$0.16577%+366%18.1%moderado$3,561
Ted Cruz140-159$0.12038%+214%7.3%moderado$2,143
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.15541%+162%7.4%moderado$24
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.22547%+109%7.9%escalable$777
Donald Trump200+$0.23547%+102%7.8%escalable$1,010
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.12524%+89%3.2%moderado$4,106
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.33556%+68%8.6%escalable$22
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.32551%+58%7.0%escalable$3,073
Donald Trump160-179$0.16025%+57%2.7%moderado$2,233
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.14522%+50%2.1%moderado$331
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.33044%+33%4.0%escalable$1,960
Donald Trump140-159$0.14519%+33%1.4%moderado$815
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 192 · proyeccion 1112.6 ± 153.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.16577%+366%18.1%moderado$3,561
lleva 0 · proyeccion 383.5 ± 99.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00212%+7948%3.0%cautela (no operable)$12,232
420-439$0.0027%+4717%1.8%cautela (no operable)$3,949
440-459$0.0026%+4199%1.6%cautela (no operable)$9,554
380-399$0.0078%+1047%1.9%cautela (no operable)$255
400-419$0.0078%+1010%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,529
360-379$0.0088%+896%1.8%cautela (no operable)$482
340-359$0.0098%+743%1.7%cautela (no operable)$563
320-339$0.0117%+561%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,046
300-319$0.0136%+351%1.2%cautela (no operable)$451
280-299$0.0285%+83%0.6%cautela (no operable)$3,076
lleva 40 · proyeccion 270.6 ± 76.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0025%+2929%1.1%cautela (no operable)$28,747
340-359$0.0036%+2353%1.5%cautela (no operable)$28,764
380-399$0.0023%+1998%0.8%cautela (no operable)$33,459
320-339$0.0048%+1619%1.8%cautela (no operable)$25,539
300-319$0.0099%+860%2.1%cautela (no operable)$20,529
280-299$0.02010%+403%2.1%cautela (no operable)$17,394
80-99$0.0021%+334%0.1%cautela (no operable)$44,777
100-119$0.0031%+287%0.2%cautela (no operable)$51,461
260-279$0.04510%+128%1.5%cautela (no operable)$9,321
120-139$0.0132%+54%0.2%cautela (no operable)$30,611
240-259$0.09510%+5%0.1%cautela (no operable)$6,693
lleva 0 · proyeccion 145.9 ± 61.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00416%+4511%4.0%cautela (no operable)$562
165-189$0.00414%+3978%3.5%cautela (no operable)$577
190-214$0.00411%+2958%2.6%cautela (no operable)$109
215-239$0.0047%+1843%1.6%cautela (no operable)$106
115-139$0.01515%+931%3.5%cautela (no operable)$60
90-114$0.06013%+109%1.8%cautela (no operable)$189
lleva 124 · proyeccion 228.1 ± 51.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
300-319$0.0024%+2145%1.1%cautela (no operable)$73,850
120-139$0.0023%+1588%0.6%cautela (no operable)$119,659
320-339$0.0022%+1418%0.5%cautela (no operable)$54,616
280-299$0.0068%+1172%1.8%cautela (no operable)$57,383
260-279$0.01911%+488%2.4%cautela (no operable)$65,777
240-259$0.05314%+164%2.3%cautela (no operable)$59,427
140-159$0.0195%+151%0.8%cautela (no operable)$89,543
220-239$0.12515%+23%0.8%moderado$57,082
lleva 8 · proyeccion 73.9 ± 41.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0024%+2651%1.0%cautela (no operable)$10,188
115-139$0.00911%+1018%2.4%cautela (no operable)$18,028
90-114$0.04419%+328%3.8%cautela (no operable)$19,978
65-89$0.18524%+29%1.6%moderado$16,629
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 189.0 ± 47.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0158%+397%1.6%cautela (no operable)$70
100-119$0.0114%+282%0.8%cautela (no operable)$60
80-99$0.0052%+250%0.3%cautela (no operable)$97
140-159$0.03712%+221%2.1%cautela (no operable)$216
60-79$0.0051%+34%0.1%cautela (no operable)$117
160-179$0.12515%+23%0.8%moderado$212
lleva 32 · proyeccion 152.7 ± 38.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00417%+4850%4.3%cautela (no operable)$361
100-119$0.00411%+3056%2.7%cautela (no operable)$426
140-159$0.01921%+962%4.8%cautela (no operable)$581
lleva 117 · proyeccion 162.1 ± 23.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00413%+2835%3.2%cautela (no operable)$1,627
140-159$0.01229%+2322%7.0%cautela (no operable)$3,896
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 196.0 ± 53.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
200+$0.23547%+102%7.8%escalable$1,010
180-199$0.12515%+18%0.7%moderado$447
160-179$0.12513%+6%0.2%moderado$474
lleva 30 · proyeccion 146.0 ± 40.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0043%+772%0.8%cautela (no operable)$461
40-59$0.0031%+407%0.3%cautela (no operable)$463
80-99$0.0198%+300%1.4%cautela (no operable)$588
100-119$0.06513%+101%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,060
140-159$0.14519%+33%1.4%moderado$815
20-39$0.0030%+22%0.0%cautela (no operable)$5,641
120-139$0.16018%+11%0.5%moderado$1,043
lleva 124 · proyeccion 181.1 ± 28.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0166%+261%1.1%cautela (no operable)$1,955
140-159$0.07515%+103%2.1%cautela (no operable)$2,604
160-179$0.16025%+57%2.7%moderado$2,233
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 148.2 ± 28.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.05521%+280%4.1%cautela (no operable)$0
140-159$0.09027%+203%5.0%cautela (no operable)$0
180-199$0.04510%+124%1.5%cautela (no operable)$0
200+$0.0254%+44%0.3%cautela (no operable)$40
120-139$0.18522%+20%1.1%moderado$0
lleva 31 · proyeccion 123.9 ± 22.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.05512%+110%1.6%cautela (no operable)$376
60-79$0.0182%+27%0.1%cautela (no operable)$97
100-119$0.23028%+23%1.7%escalable$215
120-139$0.30533%+9%0.9%escalable$288
lleva 125 · proyeccion 161.8 ± 14.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0116%+424%1.2%cautela (no operable)$841
140-159$0.12038%+214%7.3%moderado$2,143
160-179$0.42746%+7%1.3%escalable$1,549
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.4 ± 18.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.06228%+347%5.8%cautela (no operable)$20
100-119$0.15541%+162%7.4%moderado$24
140-159$0.0357%+93%0.8%cautela (no operable)$12
lleva 18 · proyeccion 88.9 ± 14.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.14522%+50%2.1%moderado$331
lleva 48 · proyeccion 78.3 ± 9.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.33044%+33%4.0%escalable$1,960
40-59$0.0213%+17%0.1%cautela (no operable)$513
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.0 ± 12.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.06528%+338%5.9%cautela (no operable)$713
40-59$0.42556%+32%5.9%escalable$1,275
lleva 9 · proyeccion 40.4 ± 9.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0081%+81%0.2%cautela (no operable)$1,140
40-59$0.32551%+58%7.0%escalable$3,073
lleva 24 · proyeccion 37.0 ± 6.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.29034%+18%1.9%escalable$3,111
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.4 ± 12.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.04123%+460%4.8%cautela (no operable)$0
20-39$0.33556%+68%8.6%escalable$22
lleva 0 · proyeccion 19.4 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0052%+351%0.5%cautela (no operable)$187
20-39$0.22547%+109%7.9%escalable$777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.7 ± 6.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.06519%+187%3.2%cautela (no operable)$2,893
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.4 ± 11.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
30-34$0.0062%+282%0.4%cautela (no operable)$12
20-24$0.0409%+139%1.4%cautela (no operable)$10
15-19$0.06014%+136%2.2%cautela (no operable)$0
25-29$0.0415%+27%0.3%cautela (no operable)$70
10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.3 ± 8.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.0299%+221%1.6%cautela (no operable)$83
10-14$0.05517%+214%3.1%cautela (no operable)$199
20-24$0.0133%+174%0.6%cautela (no operable)$82
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.9 ± 5.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0296%+93%0.7%cautela (no operable)$2,367
5-9$0.12524%+89%3.2%moderado$4,106