CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-12 12:11 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Elon Musk40-64$0.14045%+222%9.1%moderado$75,206
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.11031%+178%5.5%moderado$1,671
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.21554%+152%10.4%escalable$854
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.19641%+107%6.5%moderado$385
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.12524%+94%3.4%moderado$5,910
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.32561%+86%10.4%escalable$1,962
Donald Trump200+$0.18532%+72%4.1%moderado$575
Ted Cruz120-139$0.23036%+57%4.3%escalable$1,895
Ted Cruz140-159$0.15524%+52%2.4%moderado$970
Donald Trump100-119$0.11516%+37%1.2%moderado$1,274
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.30041%+36%3.9%escalable$5,036
The White House180-199$0.22530%+33%2.4%escalable$6,803
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 257 · proyeccion 1037.4 ± 141.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.05561%+1001%14.6%cautela (no operable)$4,942
960-999$0.01310%+728%2.3%cautela (no operable)$5,505
920-959$0.0409%+124%1.3%cautela (no operable)$2,693
880-919$0.0457%+56%0.7%cautela (no operable)$2,939
lleva 0 · proyeccion 372.7 ± 97.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00210%+6393%2.4%cautela (no operable)$14,615
400-419$0.0028%+4962%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,474
420-439$0.0027%+4492%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,653
380-399$0.0038%+3112%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
360-379$0.0048%+1710%1.9%cautela (no operable)$2,448
340-359$0.0058%+1340%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,310
320-339$0.0087%+824%1.7%cautela (no operable)$4,159
300-319$0.0137%+409%1.4%cautela (no operable)$2,515
280-299$0.0226%+152%0.9%cautela (no operable)$4,487
lleva 19 · proyeccion 265.4 ± 79.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0024%+2744%1.0%cautela (no operable)$5,522
340-359$0.0036%+2195%1.4%cautela (no operable)$9,258
320-339$0.0047%+1970%1.7%cautela (no operable)$8,204
300-319$0.0059%+1462%2.0%cautela (no operable)$14,897
280-299$0.01110%+732%2.1%cautela (no operable)$12,887
260-279$0.02210%+344%2.0%cautela (no operable)$5,525
80-99$0.0031%+250%0.2%cautela (no operable)$39,608
240-259$0.05510%+78%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,646
220-239$0.0859%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$2,458
lleva 0 · proyeccion 136.3 ± 59.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+10683%4.0%cautela (no operable)$1,601
165-189$0.00213%+8740%3.3%cautela (no operable)$1,618
115-139$0.00717%+2106%4.0%cautela (no operable)$1,541
90-114$0.04114%+250%2.6%cautela (no operable)$1,061
lleva 105 · proyeccion 200.0 ± 49.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0026%+3926%1.5%cautela (no operable)$87,526
240-259$0.00310%+3811%2.4%cautela (no operable)$76,860
100-119$0.0023%+1938%0.7%cautela (no operable)$225,431
220-239$0.01113%+1071%3.1%cautela (no operable)$64,147
200-219$0.02416%+571%3.4%cautela (no operable)$60,314
180-199$0.09516%+65%1.7%cautela (no operable)$87,381
lleva 30 · proyeccion 40.3 ± 16.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
65-89$0.0037%+2585%1.6%cautela (no operable)$129,948
40-64$0.14045%+222%9.1%moderado$75,206
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.55x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 203.7 ± 48.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0225%+134%0.8%cautela (no operable)$22
140-159$0.0409%+121%1.3%cautela (no operable)$0
80-99$0.0051%+93%0.1%cautela (no operable)$102
160-179$0.08013%+60%1.3%cautela (no operable)$108
100-119$0.0193%+34%0.2%cautela (no operable)$22
200+$0.43553%+23%4.4%escalable$220
lleva 34 · proyeccion 161.6 ± 38.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.02120%+882%4.6%cautela (no operable)$1,329
140-159$0.02620%+639%4.3%cautela (no operable)$1,370
lleva 131 · proyeccion 189.7 ± 26.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00410%+2307%2.3%cautela (no operable)$2,751
160-179$0.01122%+1944%5.4%cautela (no operable)$3,780
180-199$0.22530%+33%2.4%escalable$6,803
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 175.7 ± 50.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0062%+169%0.3%cautela (no operable)$80
200+$0.18532%+72%4.1%moderado$575
80-99$0.0254%+48%0.3%cautela (no operable)$222
40-59$0.0051%+29%0.0%cautela (no operable)$442
160-179$0.13516%+16%0.6%moderado$326
lleva 19 · proyeccion 135.7 ± 41.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0042%+531%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,412
60-79$0.0095%+465%1.1%cautela (no operable)$702
80-99$0.02010%+416%2.1%cautela (no operable)$1,389
100-119$0.11516%+37%1.2%moderado$1,274
120-139$0.15019%+27%1.2%moderado$657
lleva 113 · proyeccion 149.4 ± 22.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.06124%+288%4.7%cautela (no operable)$2,775
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 154.4 ± 29.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 32 · proyeccion 129.5 ± 23.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0031%+373%0.3%cautela (no operable)$713
80-99$0.0458%+83%1.0%cautela (no operable)$269
140-159$0.15524%+52%2.4%moderado$970
lleva 100 · proyeccion 142.2 ± 15.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0187%+274%1.2%cautela (no operable)$827
120-139$0.23036%+57%4.3%escalable$1,895
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.4 ± 18.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0057%+1237%1.6%cautela (no operable)$234
120-139$0.03728%+644%6.3%cautela (no operable)$204
100-119$0.19641%+107%6.5%moderado$385
160-179$0.0051%+10%0.0%cautela (no operable)$226
lleva 7 · proyeccion 78.8 ± 14.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0508%+57%0.8%cautela (no operable)$146
60-79$0.38542%+10%1.5%escalable$488
40-59$0.0859%+9%0.2%cautela (no operable)$32
lleva 39 · proyeccion 70.1 ± 9.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.13517%+24%0.9%moderado$1,449
60-79$0.62069%+12%4.8%escalable$1,422
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 12.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0052%+272%0.4%cautela (no operable)$686
60-79$0.11031%+178%5.5%moderado$1,671
40-59$0.47555%+15%3.4%escalable$2,064
lleva 2 · proyeccion 37.5 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.30041%+36%3.9%escalable$5,036
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 6.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.12524%+94%3.4%moderado$5,910
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.2 ± 13.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01627%+1589%6.5%cautela (no operable)$217
60-79$0.0052%+246%0.3%cautela (no operable)$163
20-39$0.21554%+152%10.4%escalable$854
lleva 4 · proyeccion 24.5 ± 10.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.32561%+86%10.4%escalable$1,962
lleva 4 · proyeccion 13.5 ± 7.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01120%+1747%4.9%cautela (no operable)$1,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.04915%+205%2.6%cautela (no operable)$40
20-24$0.04710%+121%1.5%cautela (no operable)$30
25-29$0.0396%+55%0.6%cautela (no operable)$30
10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$104
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0056%+1115%1.4%cautela (no operable)$278
10-14$0.05818%+218%3.4%cautela (no operable)$316
30-34$0.0051%+31%0.0%cautela (no operable)$278
15-19$0.10212%+19%0.6%moderado$269
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02615%+461%3.1%cautela (no operable)$575
15-19$0.0174%+152%0.7%cautela (no operable)$381
5-9$0.23028%+22%1.7%escalable$1,057