Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 60-79 $0.110 42% +282% 8.7% moderado $1,015 Donald Trump 200+ $0.200 50% +150% 9.4% escalable $410 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.270 56% +106% 9.8% escalable $1,298 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.255 50% +96% 8.2% escalable $430 The White House 200+ $0.350 67% +91% 12.3% escalable $0 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.100 18% +84% 2.3% moderado $99 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.205 30% +45% 2.9% escalable $483 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.125 17% +38% 1.4% moderado $60 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.360 49% +37% 5.2% escalable $4,132 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.105 14% +31% 0.9% moderado $30,570 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.135 17% +26% 1.0% moderado $436 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.335 42% +24% 3.0% escalable $694
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,251 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.58x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 238 · proyeccion 1054.2 ± 144.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.070 65% +825% 15.5% cautela (no operable) $4,775 960-999 $0.019 10% +394% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,194 920-959 $0.037 8% +118% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $2,621
lleva 0 · proyeccion 407.9 ± 102.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 18% +12231% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $712 420-439 $0.002 8% +4985% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $670 440-459 $0.002 7% +4687% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $655 400-419 $0.003 8% +3019% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $598 380-399 $0.003 8% +2969% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $598 360-379 $0.005 7% +1221% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $637 340-359 $0.009 7% +636% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $830 320-339 $0.011 6% +454% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $617 300-319 $0.017 5% +189% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,849 280-299 $0.022 4% +77% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,107
lleva 0 · proyeccion 281.4 ± 84.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.002 4% +2687% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $5,049 400-419 $0.002 3% +1910% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $10,923 360-379 $0.004 5% +1467% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $2,557 340-359 $0.004 7% +1413% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $5,243 320-339 $0.005 8% +1353% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,326 440-459 $0.002 1% +786% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $11,399 300-319 $0.011 9% +672% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $5,867 280-299 $0.025 9% +281% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $9,364 500+ $0.002 1% +238% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $23,678 80-99 $0.004 1% +110% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $19,359 260-279 $0.045 9% +106% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,800
lleva 0 · proyeccion 170.9 ± 66.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240+ $0.002 15% +9877% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $903 165-189 $0.002 15% +9855% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $571 140-164 $0.002 14% +9503% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $571 190-214 $0.002 13% +8861% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $48 215-239 $0.002 10% +6903% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $819 115-139 $0.009 12% +1240% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $756 90-114 $0.042 9% +109% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $160
lleva 86 · proyeccion 215.6 ± 57.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.002 4% +2362% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $67,987 280-299 $0.003 6% +2339% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $46,699 260-279 $0.007 9% +1176% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $43,054 240-259 $0.011 12% +910% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $36,915 100-119 $0.007 3% +267% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $89,895 220-239 $0.040 13% +235% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $29,047 200-219 $0.105 14% +31% 0.9% moderado $30,570
lleva 11 · proyeccion 55.9 ± 33.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.002 4% +2234% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $9,502 90-114 $0.006 12% +1879% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $15,617 65-89 $0.047 24% +409% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $27,487
lleva 170 · proyeccion 173.0 ± 8.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.085 23% +170% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $216,862
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,396 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.8x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 221.9 ± 51.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.350 67% +91% 12.3% escalable $0 120-139 $0.018 3% +72% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $10
lleva 0 · proyeccion 146.3 ± 41.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 18% +4288% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $605 100-119 $0.004 13% +2777% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $611 80-99 $0.005 8% +1421% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $634 140-159 $0.024 19% +690% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $885 60-79 $0.005 4% +612% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $660 160-179 $0.150 16% +9% 0.4% moderado $1,097
lleva 95 · proyeccion 172.5 ± 30.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 10% +1856% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $1,278 140-159 $0.015 20% +1165% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $2,061 160-179 $0.095 26% +172% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $3,158
lleva 180 · proyeccion 181.9 ± 4.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,128 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 199.4 ± 53.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.200 50% +150% 9.4% escalable $410 60-79 $0.006 1% +36% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $80 180-199 $0.130 15% +12% 0.4% moderado $78
lleva 0 · proyeccion 140.6 ± 45.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.003 2% +840% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $1,226 60-79 $0.007 5% +588% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $417 20-39 $0.002 1% +488% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $2,001 80-99 $0.032 9% +196% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $1,153 120-139 $0.135 17% +26% 1.0% moderado $436 100-119 $0.119 14% +17% 0.6% moderado $1,102
lleva 93 · proyeccion 153.1 ± 29.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 3% +1774% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $2,882 100-119 $0.017 9% +444% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $2,205 120-139 $0.175 20% +12% 0.6% moderado $2,394
lleva 187 · proyeccion 188.2 ± 4.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.885 98% +10% 19.9% escalable $6,462
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,519 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.53x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 169.0 ± 30.6
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 0 · proyeccion 112.9 ± 25.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.021 7% +264% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $520 40-59 $0.005 1% +167% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $390
lleva 68 · proyeccion 125.4 ± 17.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.035 7% +97% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $451 100-119 $0.205 30% +45% 2.9% escalable $483 120-139 $0.335 42% +24% 3.0% escalable $694
lleva 162 · proyeccion 163.3 ± 2.7
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,664 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 123.6 ± 19.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.055 38% +584% 8.5% cautela (no operable) $0 100-119 $0.055 31% +462% 6.7% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.050 17% +248% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 83.0 ± 15.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.115 14% +21% 0.7% moderado $74
lleva 32 · proyeccion 74.0 ± 11.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.046 10% +114% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,836
lleva 62 · proyeccion 63.4 ± 2.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 814 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 58.7 ± 13.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.002 6% +3601% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $619 60-79 $0.110 42% +282% 8.7% moderado $1,015
lleva 0 · proyeccion 40.3 ± 10.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.016 3% +71% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,592 40-59 $0.360 49% +37% 5.2% escalable $4,132
lleva 19 · proyeccion 37.7 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +53% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,660 20-39 $0.550 59% +7% 2.2% escalable $5,884
lleva 34 · proyeccion 34.3 ± 1.0
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 34.9 ± 13.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.005 33% +5951% 8.2% cautela (no operable) $82 60-79 $0.005 4% +561% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $93 20-39 $0.255 50% +96% 8.2% escalable $430
lleva 0 · proyeccion 23.3 ± 11.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.006 7% +1030% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $368 20-39 $0.270 56% +106% 9.8% escalable $1,298
lleva 0 · proyeccion 12.3 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.030 19% +526% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $995
lleva 6 · proyeccion 6.6 ± 1.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3% Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.5 ± 11.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.091 15% +63% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $20 10-14 $0.125 17% +38% 1.4% moderado $60
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.2 ± 9.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.032 6% +98% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $100 10-14 $0.100 18% +84% 2.3% moderado $99 15-19 $0.075 12% +64% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $88 30-34 $0.006 1% +17% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $100
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.070 15% +118% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $555 15-19 $0.029 5% +62% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $381 5-9 $0.240 28% +17% 1.3% escalable $1,025
lleva 1 · proyeccion 1.0 ± 0.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <5 $0.939 100% +7% 25.0% escalable $8,480
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).