CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.220	58%	+164%	11.6%	escalable	$1,081
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.215	53%	+145%	9.9%	escalable	$2,267
Donald Trump	140-159	$0.125	29%	+135%	4.8%	moderado	$2,937
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.290	60%	+105%	10.8%	escalable	$3,062
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.125	25%	+100%	3.6%	moderado	$2,540
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.100	18%	+79%	2.2%	moderado	$325
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.205	37%	+79%	5.1%	escalable	$89
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.155	25%	+59%	2.7%	moderado	$40
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.110	17%	+59%	1.8%	moderado	$951
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.315	43%	+37%	4.3%	escalable	$817
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	60-79	$0.112	14%	+28%	0.9%	moderado	$1,941
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.295	38%	+28%	3.0%	escalable	$5,174

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,300 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.66x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 42% del periodo

lleva 286 · proyeccion 1019.8 ± 137.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.045	56%	+1142%	13.4%	cautela (no operable)	$5,161
960-999	$0.025	11%	+335%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$8,638
920-959	$0.052	10%	+88%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$4,038
880-919	$0.070	8%	+13%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$3,385

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 326.3 ± 91.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
400-419	$0.002	6%	+3745%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,514
360-379	$0.003	8%	+3016%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$2,940
420-439	$0.002	5%	+2980%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,678
380-399	$0.004	7%	+1861%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,410
500+	$0.002	3%	+1848%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$17,359
340-359	$0.005	8%	+1432%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,792
320-339	$0.006	9%	+1350%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$4,976
300-319	$0.009	9%	+907%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$3,784
280-299	$0.021	8%	+292%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$5,061
260-279	$0.045	7%	+60%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,540

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 48 · proyeccion 248.2 ± 71.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
340-359	$0.002	4%	+2643%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$15,163
320-339	$0.003	6%	+2242%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$14,230
360-379	$0.002	3%	+1683%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$19,488
300-319	$0.006	8%	+1087%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$25,243
280-299	$0.009	9%	+1007%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$22,946
380-399	$0.002	2%	+973%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$21,251
260-279	$0.013	11%	+750%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$14,784
100-119	$0.006	2%	+166%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$44,955
240-259	$0.045	11%	+146%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$9,640
220-239	$0.085	11%	+26%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$8,480

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.1 ± 48.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.003	9%	+3550%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$9,872
165-189	$0.002	4%	+2670%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$8,240
115-139	$0.006	15%	+2266%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$9,004
90-114	$0.026	20%	+651%	4.4%	cautela (no operable)	$15,160

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 134 · proyeccion 182.8 ± 35.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
220-239	$0.003	10%	+3714%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$132,800
120-139	$0.003	7%	+2848%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$324,428
240-259	$0.002	4%	+2532%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$167,599
200-219	$0.013	17%	+1249%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$142,745
180-199	$0.075	22%	+192%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$163,354

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,465 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.5x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 176.0 ± 45.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.005	6%	+991%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$160
80-99	$0.005	3%	+419%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$276
120-139	$0.021	10%	+407%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$154
140-159	$0.033	15%	+356%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$150
60-79	$0.005	1%	+103%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$306
160-179	$0.090	17%	+93%	2.3%	cautela (no operable)	$286

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 63 · proyeccion 162.8 ± 33.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.002	22%	+14269%	5.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,515
160-179	$0.015	23%	+1471%	5.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,828

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 160 · proyeccion 190.9 ± 18.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.014	23%	+1508%	5.3%	cautela (no operable)	$5,262

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,181 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 14.27x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 160.7 ± 47.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.002	1%	+674%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$484
60-79	$0.006	3%	+326%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$100
80-99	$0.045	6%	+24%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$232
200+	$0.175	21%	+19%	1.0%	moderado	$674
120-139	$0.125	13%	+7%	0.3%	moderado	$103

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 51 · proyeccion 152.1 ± 38.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.003	2%	+585%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,867
100-119	$0.037	11%	+203%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,361
80-99	$0.019	6%	+182%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,648
40-59	$0.004	1%	+67%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,502
120-139	$0.110	17%	+59%	1.8%	moderado	$951

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 145 · proyeccion 165.8 ± 17.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.125	29%	+135%	4.8%	moderado	$2,937
160-179	$0.365	43%	+18%	2.5%	escalable	$3,266

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,576 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.48x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 134.1 ± 27.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.155	25%	+59%	2.7%	moderado	$40
160-179	$0.100	13%	+27%	0.8%	moderado	$30
120-139	$0.230	28%	+24%	1.8%	escalable	$40

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 57 · proyeccion 133.9 ± 20.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.067	19%	+193%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$533
120-139	$0.205	37%	+79%	5.1%	escalable	$89
60-79	$0.003	0%	+30%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$893
140-159	$0.270	29%	+6%	0.6%	escalable	$1,041

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 125 · proyeccion 146.6 ± 10.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.125	25%	+100%	3.6%	moderado	$2,540

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,681 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 97.9 ± 17.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.011	10%	+798%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$266
100-119	$0.066	36%	+445%	7.8%	cautela (no operable)	$447
140-159	$0.005	1%	+63%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$291
80-99	$0.325	39%	+20%	2.5%	escalable	$532

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 22 · proyeccion 79.5 ± 13.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.046	6%	+41%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$160
80-99	$0.315	43%	+37%	4.3%	escalable	$817

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 54 · proyeccion 70.8 ± 7.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.041	11%	+177%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,675
40-59	$0.043	6%	+38%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$4,464

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 822 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 47.1 ± 11.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.290	60%	+105%	10.8%	escalable	$3,062
60-79	$0.112	14%	+28%	0.9%	moderado	$1,941

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 8 · proyeccion 36.8 ± 9.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.015	3%	+92%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,912
40-59	$0.295	38%	+28%	3.0%	escalable	$5,174

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 27 · proyeccion 34.3 ± 4.6

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 453 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.45x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 27.0 ± 12.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.011	15%	+1245%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$256
20-39	$0.220	58%	+164%	11.6%	escalable	$1,081

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 5 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 9.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.215	53%	+145%	9.9%	escalable	$2,267

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 5 · proyeccion 10.1 ± 5.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.011	4%	+224%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,020

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.3 ± 10.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.051	14%	+184%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$40
10-14	$0.100	18%	+79%	2.2%	moderado	$325
20-24	$0.064	9%	+45%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$30

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 29% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.0 ± 8.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.005	4%	+753%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$281
10-14	$0.038	18%	+375%	3.7%	cautela (no operable)	$319
15-19	$0.029	10%	+256%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$272

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 86% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.1 ± 5.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.019	9%	+389%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$637
5-9	$0.060	29%	+379%	6.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,280
15-19	$0.011	1%	+7%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$438