CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.250	58%	+132%	11.0%	escalable	$1,246
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.120	25%	+108%	3.7%	moderado	$74
The White House	160-179	$0.120	24%	+104%	3.5%	moderado	$2,882
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.165	28%	+69%	3.4%	moderado	$415
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.335	55%	+65%	8.2%	escalable	$3,131
Elon Musk	65-89	$0.155	23%	+51%	2.3%	moderado	$9,449
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.275	40%	+45%	4.3%	escalable	$560
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.170	25%	+44%	2.3%	moderado	$749
The White House	160-179	$0.452	57%	+26%	5.4%	escalable	$12,094
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.365	44%	+21%	3.0%	escalable	$849
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.380	44%	+16%	2.4%	escalable	$4,629
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.405	45%	+12%	2.0%	escalable	$247

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,242 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.57x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 32% del periodo

lleva 231 · proyeccion 1071.1 ± 146.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.085	69%	+709%	16.5%	cautela (no operable)	$4,582
960-999	$0.038	9%	+135%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$4,006
920-959	$0.065	7%	+12%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,442

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 304.7 ± 88.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
400-419	$0.002	4%	+2882%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,978
380-399	$0.003	6%	+2180%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$3,340
440-459	$0.002	2%	+1476%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$10,735
360-379	$0.004	7%	+1433%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$2,223
340-359	$0.005	8%	+1343%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$4,694
320-339	$0.006	9%	+1234%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,182
500+	$0.002	1%	+812%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$23,444
300-319	$0.015	9%	+481%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$5,341
280-299	$0.025	9%	+263%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$7,651
80-99	$0.003	0%	+87%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$16,613
260-279	$0.045	8%	+85%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,052

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 194.0 ± 70.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
240+	$0.003	26%	+10261%	6.4%	cautela (no operable)	$252
190-214	$0.003	14%	+4566%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$38
165-189	$0.003	14%	+4463%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$561
215-239	$0.003	13%	+4112%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$38
140-164	$0.004	12%	+3276%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$561
115-139	$0.008	9%	+1026%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$560
90-114	$0.045	6%	+35%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$69

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 79 · proyeccion 231.7 ± 62.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
320-339	$0.002	4%	+2415%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$45,340
300-319	$0.003	6%	+1864%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$40,979
280-299	$0.004	8%	+1748%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$35,266
260-279	$0.011	11%	+864%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$24,825
80-99	$0.002	1%	+551%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$62,702
240-259	$0.029	12%	+314%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$19,888
100-119	$0.006	2%	+194%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$71,963
220-239	$0.085	13%	+50%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$18,982

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 50% del periodo

lleva 4 · proyeccion 72.0 ± 41.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
115-139	$0.004	10%	+2792%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$5,353
90-114	$0.015	18%	+1164%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$8,436
65-89	$0.155	23%	+51%	2.3%	moderado	$9,449

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 163 · proyeccion 189.1 ± 25.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
240-259	$0.002	2%	+1396%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$148,779
220-239	$0.009	9%	+1010%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$125,898
200-219	$0.095	22%	+136%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$147,687

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,374 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.87x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 154.4 ± 42.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.004	16%	+3376%	3.8%	cautela (no operable)	$605
100-119	$0.005	11%	+2052%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$605
80-99	$0.005	6%	+1095%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$634
60-79	$0.005	3%	+436%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$654
140-159	$0.035	18%	+424%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$865
160-179	$0.160	17%	+9%	0.4%	moderado	$1,097

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 80 · proyeccion 165.9 ± 31.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.021	22%	+930%	5.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,880
120-139	$0.024	13%	+446%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,142
160-179	$0.120	24%	+104%	3.5%	moderado	$2,882

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 165 · proyeccion 175.3 ± 11.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.452	57%	+26%	5.4%	escalable	$12,094
200+	$0.011	1%	+25%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$13,362

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,102 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 155.6 ± 47.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.003	1%	+467%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$339
20-39	$0.002	1%	+242%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$687
80-99	$0.045	6%	+42%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$973
60-79	$0.028	3%	+20%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$331

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 66 · proyeccion 141.4 ± 33.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.009	7%	+743%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,628
60-79	$0.004	2%	+580%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$2,629
100-119	$0.072	15%	+109%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,851

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 160 · proyeccion 176.6 ± 15.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.380	44%	+16%	2.4%	escalable	$4,629

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,505 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.54x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.7 ± 25.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.021	5%	+136%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$511

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 62 · proyeccion 126.5 ± 18.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.030	7%	+134%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$439
100-119	$0.165	28%	+69%	3.4%	moderado	$415
120-139	$0.275	40%	+45%	4.3%	escalable	$560

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 156 · proyeccion 164.4 ± 6.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.080	24%	+196%	4.2%	cautela (no operable)	$4,096

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,662 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 90.2 ± 16.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.120	25%	+108%	3.7%	moderado	$74
120-139	$0.025	4%	+54%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$90
80-99	$0.405	45%	+12%	2.0%	escalable	$247

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 30 · proyeccion 79.2 ± 12.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.365	44%	+21%	3.0%	escalable	$849
100-119	$0.045	5%	+8%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$570

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.6 ± 5.1

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 811 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 43.0 ± 11.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.009	2%	+112%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$635
40-59	$0.335	55%	+65%	8.2%	escalable	$3,131

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 16 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 7.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.004	1%	+162%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,660
40-59	$0.360	39%	+9%	1.2%	escalable	$4,357
20-39	$0.565	59%	+5%	1.6%	escalable	$5,563

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 31 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 3.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.025	3%	+24%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$5,831

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.8 ± 11.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.006	12%	+1770%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$368
20-39	$0.250	58%	+132%	11.0%	escalable	$1,246

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 14.8 ± 9.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.050	30%	+498%	6.5%	cautela (no operable)	$961

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 9.2 ± 4.2

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.3 ± 10.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
30-34	$0.006	2%	+153%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$12
15-19	$0.055	13%	+145%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$0
20-24	$0.035	8%	+130%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$12
10-14	$0.090	18%	+98%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$0

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.029	16%	+432%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$470
15-19	$0.029	7%	+125%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$279
20-24	$0.011	2%	+54%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$275
5-9	$0.170	25%	+44%	2.3%	moderado	$749

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.8 ± 3.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.002	0%	+117%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$3,629
5-9	$0.060	13%	+115%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$5,667