Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 65-89 $0.165 41% +151% 7.5% moderado $97,032 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.175 38% +119% 6.3% moderado $1,050 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.110 22% +102% 3.1% moderado $4,268 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.300 55% +82% 8.8% escalable $1,899 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.170 29% +73% 3.8% moderado $2,293 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.105 18% +68% 2.0% moderado $1,170 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.300 43% +43% 4.6% escalable $800 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.395 55% +40% 6.5% escalable $3,339 Ted Cruz 180-199 $0.261 36% +39% 3.5% escalable $373 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.305 40% +30% 3.3% escalable $4,155 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.100 13% +27% 0.8% moderado $697 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 40-59 $0.130 15% +17% 0.6% moderado $173
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,361 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 346 · proyeccion 994.6 ± 128.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 48% +708% 11.3% cautela (no operable) $6,478 960-999 $0.022 12% +457% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $9,396 920-959 $0.053 11% +112% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $4,524
lleva 9 · proyeccion 251.3 ± 78.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.004 8% +1825% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $14,875 280-299 $0.009 9% +957% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $15,469 260-279 $0.018 10% +432% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,660 80-99 $0.003 1% +396% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $45,592 240-259 $0.039 10% +159% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $3,932 220-239 $0.085 10% +14% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $4,388
lleva 108 · proyeccion 224.4 ± 54.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.004 7% +1955% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $51,383 300-319 $0.003 4% +1647% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $50,697 320-339 $0.002 2% +1449% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $40,523 260-279 $0.009 10% +1120% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $52,198 120-139 $0.004 3% +716% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $108,282 240-259 $0.025 13% +413% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $40,766 220-239 $0.085 14% +70% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $25,622 140-159 $0.052 6% +9% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $82,724
lleva 56 · proyeccion 62.3 ± 12.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 65-89 $0.165 41% +151% 7.5% moderado $97,032
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,527 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 19 · proyeccion 149.7 ± 38.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 18% +3480% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $513 140-159 $0.006 20% +3313% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $582 100-119 $0.005 12% +2305% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $539 80-99 $0.004 6% +1452% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $747 60-79 $0.004 2% +515% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $781 160-179 $0.062 18% +190% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $936
lleva 125 · proyeccion 179.1 ± 24.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.009 29% +3331% 7.1% cautela (no operable) $4,233
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,251 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 42 · proyeccion 166.9 ± 42.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 0% +177% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $3,254 120-139 $0.100 13% +27% 0.8% moderado $697 160-179 $0.175 19% +7% 0.4% moderado $1,511
lleva 121 · proyeccion 186.4 ± 30.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.007 5% +585% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $1,781 160-179 $0.110 22% +102% 3.1% moderado $4,268
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,655 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 39 · proyeccion 138.0 ± 24.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 136 · proyeccion 177.1 ± 15.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.065 12% +89% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $2,038 160-179 $0.300 43% +43% 4.6% escalable $800 180-199 $0.261 36% +39% 3.5% escalable $373 120-139 $0.006 1% +37% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $872
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,699 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 78.2 ± 15.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.028 8% +180% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $479 80-99 $0.175 38% +119% 6.3% moderado $1,050 20-39 $0.005 1% +15% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $271
lleva 37 · proyeccion 70.0 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.105 18% +68% 2.0% moderado $1,170 40-59 $0.130 15% +17% 0.6% moderado $173
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 833 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 10.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.026 4% +49% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,228 60-79 $0.009 1% +38% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $2,394 40-59 $0.305 40% +30% 3.3% escalable $4,155
lleva 19 · proyeccion 34.9 ± 6.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.700 74% +5% 3.0% escalable $10,116
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 459 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 2 · proyeccion 21.8 ± 10.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.009 4% +344% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $463 20-39 $0.300 55% +82% 8.8% escalable $1,899
lleva 12 · proyeccion 20.4 ± 6.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.395 55% +40% 6.5% escalable $3,339
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.0 ± 8.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.005 10% +1913% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $280 20-24 $0.005 4% +670% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $180 10-14 $0.085 18% +117% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $372 25-29 $0.005 1% +106% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $130 5-9 $0.210 24% +12% 0.8% escalable $564
lleva 1 · proyeccion 3.8 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.007 13% +1574% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $1,081 15-19 $0.004 3% +622% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $897 5-9 $0.170 29% +73% 3.8% moderado $2,293 20-24 $0.002 0% +60% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $899
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.