CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.395	86%	+117%	19.1%	escalable	$23,881
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.105	23%	+115%	3.4%	moderado	$15
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.140	25%	+81%	3.3%	moderado	$406
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.130	17%	+28%	1.1%	moderado	$27
Ted Cruz	160-179	$0.105	13%	+21%	0.6%	moderado	$15
Donald Trump	180-199	$0.140	17%	+19%	0.8%	moderado	$8,973
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.220	26%	+19%	1.3%	escalable	$975
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.535	63%	+18%	5.1%	escalable	$90
Donald Trump	120-139	$0.115	13%	+17%	0.6%	moderado	$1,436
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.300	32%	+7%	0.8%	escalable	$308
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.155	17%	+7%	0.3%	moderado	$1,109
The White House	180-199	$0.160	17%	+5%	0.2%	moderado	$901

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 12,919 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 24.76x48 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026? 16% del periodo

lleva 157 · proyeccion 1169.3 ± 158.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.395	86%	+117%	19.1%	escalable	$23,881

Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 300.7 ± 86.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
400-419	$0.002	4%	+2686%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,588
380-399	$0.003	5%	+2078%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$8,917
360-379	$0.005	7%	+1244%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$2,865
340-359	$0.007	8%	+949%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$2,233
320-339	$0.009	9%	+819%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,484
300-319	$0.013	9%	+606%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$2,565
420-439	$0.005	3%	+508%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$6,938
280-299	$0.022	9%	+307%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$4,265
80-99	$0.003	0%	+87%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$8,352
120-139	$0.007	1%	+86%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$12,033
260-279	$0.053	9%	+63%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,644
100-119	$0.005	1%	+60%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,661

Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 195.0 ± 69.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
165-189	$0.005	14%	+2411%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$720
140-164	$0.005	12%	+2048%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$720
115-139	$0.026	9%	+236%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$10

Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 96 · proyeccion 251.6 ± 62.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
320-339	$0.004	6%	+1576%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$16,377
340-359	$0.003	4%	+1392%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$23,226
360-379	$0.002	2%	+1328%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$31,307
300-319	$0.008	8%	+940%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$29,207
140-159	$0.004	3%	+856%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$44,611
120-139	$0.003	2%	+652%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$51,370
380-399	$0.002	1%	+639%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$31,302
280-299	$0.022	11%	+373%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$25,893
260-279	$0.058	12%	+114%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$19,182
160-179	$0.027	5%	+99%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$30,022

Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026? 50% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 73.7 ± 42.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
115-139	$0.007	11%	+1441%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,295
90-114	$0.034	19%	+455%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,455
<40	$0.070	17%	+144%	2.7%	cautela (no operable)	$11,397

Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 207 · proyeccion 240.3 ± 28.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
280-299	$0.004	7%	+1380%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$85,813
300-319	$0.002	2%	+1018%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$91,913
260-279	$0.041	17%	+310%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$120,614
200-219	$0.047	16%	+233%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$168,031

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 6,092 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8%Sobre-dispersion: 11.89x32 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 182.8 ± 46.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.005	13%	+2304%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$37
120-139	$0.011	9%	+712%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$60
60-79	$0.002	1%	+364%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$170
100-119	$0.011	5%	+358%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$70
80-99	$0.005	2%	+330%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$137
160-179	$0.043	16%	+275%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$38
180-199	$0.160	17%	+5%	0.2%	moderado	$901

White House # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 97 · proyeccion 204.3 ± 35.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.009	14%	+1360%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$374
180-199	$0.048	20%	+322%	4.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,508
100-119	$0.002	1%	+255%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$231

White House # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 261 · proyeccion 284.6 ± 16.7

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 5,429 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5%Sobre-dispersion: 13.65x37 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 167.1 ± 47.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.005	2%	+286%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$96
80-99	$0.025	5%	+81%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$0
160-179	$0.155	17%	+7%	0.3%	moderado	$1,109

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 83 · proyeccion 165.5 ± 33.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.009	6%	+573%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,262
80-99	$0.010	2%	+94%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$1,315
120-139	$0.115	13%	+17%	0.6%	moderado	$1,436

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 142 · proyeccion 164.1 ± 17.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
180-199	$0.140	17%	+19%	0.8%	moderado	$8,973

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 3,560 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0%Sobre-dispersion: 6.7x30 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 132.8 ± 29.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.105	23%	+115%	3.4%	moderado	$15
180-199	$0.036	5%	+26%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$15
160-179	$0.105	13%	+21%	0.6%	moderado	$15
120-139	$0.220	26%	+19%	1.3%	escalable	$975

Ted Cruz # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 45 · proyeccion 121.5 ± 22.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.130	17%	+28%	1.1%	moderado	$27
120-139	$0.300	32%	+7%	0.8%	escalable	$308

Ted Cruz # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 97 · proyeccion 112.8 ± 10.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.050	10%	+95%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$805
120-139	$0.140	25%	+81%	3.3%	moderado	$406

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 2,423 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 6.6x28 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 98.1 ± 25.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.039	15%	+280%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$86
40-59	$0.035	5%	+52%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$85
140-159	$0.042	4%	+6%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$60

Zelenskyy # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 47 · proyeccion 101.7 ± 19.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.032	15%	+371%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$333
40-59	$0.005	1%	+130%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$354
140-159	$0.017	2%	+34%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$209
60-79	$0.085	11%	+28%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,119

Zelenskyy # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 100 · proyeccion 112.5 ± 9.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.071	22%	+206%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$483

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 1,079 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x28 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 43.2 ± 10.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.006	6%	+840%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$204
40-59	$0.090	58%	+541%	13.4%	cautela (no operable)	$130

NYC Mayor # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 14 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 7.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.077	36%	+374%	7.8%	cautela (no operable)	$574

NYC Mayor # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 29 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 3.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.045	6%	+42%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$1,277

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 653 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0%Sobre-dispersion: 4.35x28 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 26.4 ± 10.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.036	11%	+206%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$5
20-39	$0.535	63%	+18%	5.1%	escalable	$90

CZ # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 13 · proyeccion 28.1 ± 8.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.017	8%	+378%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$40

CZ # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 23 · proyeccion 26.3 ± 3.8

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 155 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0%Sobre-dispersion: 16.44x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.3 ± 10.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.002	6%	+3972%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$77
5-9	$0.010	19%	+1830%	4.6%	cautela (no operable)	$113
10-14	$0.010	17%	+1564%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$118
15-19	$0.015	11%	+656%	2.5%	cautela (no operable)	$160
30-34	$0.005	1%	+75%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$69
25-29	$0.015	3%	+73%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$72
35-39	$0.002	0%	+55%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$59

Khamenei # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.4 ± 7.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.005	14%	+2406%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$355
15-19	$0.005	5%	+949%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$327
5-9	$0.029	23%	+723%	5.3%	cautela (no operable)	$373
20-24	$0.009	1%	+36%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$511

Khamenei # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.8 ± 3.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
5-9	$0.004	14%	+2991%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,280