Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.215 44% +104% 7.1% escalable $1,098 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.265 52% +96% 8.6% escalable $2,257 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.175 34% +92% 4.9% moderado $657 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.120 21% +76% 2.6% moderado $1,700 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.129 21% +65% 2.4% moderado $975 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.360 54% +51% 7.2% escalable $1,933 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.355 48% +34% 4.7% escalable $3,463 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.230 30% +30% 2.2% escalable $3,647 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.160 20% +26% 1.3% moderado $1,820 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.380 43% +14% 2.2% escalable $4,545 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.230 25% +10% 0.8% escalable $641 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 20-39 $0.505 54% +7% 1.7% escalable $6,107
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,386 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 371 · proyeccion 980.0 ± 124.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.060 44% +630% 10.1% cautela (no operable) $6,693 960-999 $0.025 13% +409% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $9,640 920-959 $0.050 12% +142% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,715 880-919 $0.075 10% +38% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $4,111
lleva 34 · proyeccion 237.3 ± 72.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.003 8% +3300% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $32,307 300-319 $0.003 7% +2581% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $49,628 320-339 $0.003 5% +1859% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $52,057 260-279 $0.009 10% +1075% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $15,354 80-99 $0.003 1% +448% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $63,408 240-259 $0.021 11% +430% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $10,212 220-239 $0.045 11% +144% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $8,280
lleva 133 · proyeccion 210.4 ± 44.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.003 7% +2890% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $78,065 280-299 $0.002 4% +2410% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $80,589 240-259 $0.005 12% +2112% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $84,835 300-319 $0.002 2% +937% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $79,698 220-239 $0.035 16% +371% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $64,178 140-159 $0.024 7% +201% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $166,338
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,543 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.36x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 36 · proyeccion 152.4 ± 36.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 18% +3149% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $563 100-119 $0.005 11% +1901% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $601 140-159 $0.019 22% +1037% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $771 160-179 $0.034 19% +472% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $976
lleva 142 · proyeccion 181.8 ± 21.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.022 31% +1277% 7.3% cautela (no operable) $6,248
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 169.1 ± 39.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.003 1% +234% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $4,154 100-119 $0.033 6% +99% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $875 140-159 $0.095 18% +88% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $1,700 120-139 $0.075 12% +63% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $741 80-99 $0.020 3% +32% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,208 160-179 $0.160 20% +26% 1.3% moderado $1,820
lleva 141 · proyeccion 188.5 ± 26.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.002 10% +6731% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $4,890 160-179 $0.058 23% +304% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $5,394 180-199 $0.230 30% +30% 2.2% escalable $3,647
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,661 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 45 · proyeccion 132.2 ± 22.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.175 34% +92% 4.9% moderado $657 100-119 $0.129 21% +65% 2.4% moderado $975
lleva 142 · proyeccion 171.3 ± 13.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.055 18% +225% 3.3% cautela (no operable) $2,322 160-179 $0.360 54% +51% 7.2% escalable $1,933
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 80.7 ± 14.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.015 9% +506% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $562 80-99 $0.215 44% +104% 7.1% escalable $1,098
lleva 49 · proyeccion 72.6 ± 8.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.120 21% +76% 2.6% moderado $1,700 40-59 $0.041 7% +64% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,235
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 840 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 10 · proyeccion 38.2 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.009 2% +118% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,560 40-59 $0.380 43% +14% 2.2% escalable $4,545 20-39 $0.505 54% +7% 1.7% escalable $6,107
lleva 26 · proyeccion 35.9 ± 5.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.705 75% +6% 3.7% escalable $12,841
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 461 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 3 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 9.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.265 52% +96% 8.6% escalable $2,257 40-59 $0.014 2% +78% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $463
lleva 13 · proyeccion 19.2 ± 5.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.355 48% +34% 4.7% escalable $3,463
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 7% +1111% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $297 20-24 $0.005 2% +304% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $187 10-14 $0.055 17% +207% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $410 5-9 $0.230 25% +10% 0.8% escalable $641
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.6 ± 4.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.002 5% +2472% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,172 5-9 $0.060 28% +360% 5.8% cautela (no operable) $2,746 15-19 $0.002 0% +37% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $982
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.