CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-12 15:44 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.22556%+151%10.9%escalable$962
The White House180-199$0.12530%+141%5.0%moderado$7,809
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.26558%+118%10.6%escalable$2,173
Volodymyr Zelenskyy120-139$0.11623%+96%3.1%moderado$204
Ted Cruz120-139$0.21539%+80%5.5%escalable$2,149
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.14024%+75%3.0%moderado$6,528
Donald Trump120-139$0.11019%+74%2.3%moderado$734
Donald Trump200+$0.18529%+58%3.3%moderado$575
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.30042%+40%4.3%escalable$5,036
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.13517%+28%1.1%moderado$104
Ali Khamenei5-9$0.22528%+26%1.9%escalable$1,057
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.46557%+23%4.9%escalable$2,129
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.64x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 259 · proyeccion 1029.9 ± 140.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
960-999$0.01111%+911%2.4%cautela (no operable)$5,798
1000+$0.06059%+876%14.0%cautela (no operable)$5,131
920-959$0.0349%+175%1.5%cautela (no operable)$2,713
880-919$0.0457%+64%0.8%cautela (no operable)$2,959
lleva 0 · proyeccion 363.2 ± 96.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.0028%+5166%1.9%cautela (no operable)$17,054
400-419$0.0027%+4807%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,494
420-439$0.0027%+4250%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,673
380-399$0.0038%+3082%1.9%cautela (no operable)$810
360-379$0.0048%+1730%2.0%cautela (no operable)$2,558
340-359$0.0058%+1385%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,310
320-339$0.0078%+935%1.8%cautela (no operable)$4,159
300-319$0.0137%+444%1.5%cautela (no operable)$2,627
280-299$0.0226%+174%1.0%cautela (no operable)$4,517
lleva 21 · proyeccion 257.9 ± 77.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0024%+2355%0.9%cautela (no operable)$9,542
340-359$0.0035%+1955%1.2%cautela (no operable)$9,719
320-339$0.0047%+1817%1.6%cautela (no operable)$8,209
300-319$0.0058%+1393%1.9%cautela (no operable)$14,897
280-299$0.0119%+796%2.1%cautela (no operable)$14,532
260-279$0.02110%+393%2.0%cautela (no operable)$5,767
80-99$0.0031%+301%0.2%cautela (no operable)$40,012
240-259$0.04510%+126%1.5%cautela (no operable)$4,714
220-239$0.07510%+27%0.6%cautela (no operable)$2,567
lleva 0 · proyeccion 126.8 ± 57.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+10408%3.9%cautela (no operable)$1,741
165-189$0.00212%+7800%2.9%cautela (no operable)$2,072
115-139$0.00717%+2214%4.2%cautela (no operable)$1,561
90-114$0.04416%+259%3.0%cautela (no operable)$2,192
lleva 107 · proyeccion 192.5 ± 46.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
240-259$0.0038%+3161%2.0%cautela (no operable)$79,164
260-279$0.0024%+2877%1.1%cautela (no operable)$89,395
220-239$0.00912%+1363%2.9%cautela (no operable)$66,601
100-119$0.0044%+928%0.8%cautela (no operable)$245,773
200-219$0.02516%+534%3.4%cautela (no operable)$71,879
180-199$0.08517%+99%2.3%cautela (no operable)$95,805
lleva 32 · proyeccion 32.8 ± 4.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-64$0.0097%+636%1.5%cautela (no operable)$97,819
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.53x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.3 ± 47.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0063%+421%0.6%cautela (no operable)$22
120-139$0.0216%+192%1.0%cautela (no operable)$22
80-99$0.0051%+144%0.2%cautela (no operable)$122
160-179$0.07014%+101%1.9%cautela (no operable)$108
140-159$0.06010%+69%1.1%cautela (no operable)$0
lleva 48 · proyeccion 169.1 ± 37.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.00618%+2737%4.5%cautela (no operable)$1,973
160-179$0.02821%+654%4.7%cautela (no operable)$1,867
lleva 145 · proyeccion 197.2 ± 24.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01117%+1403%4.1%cautela (no operable)$3,815
140-159$0.0065%+711%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,786
180-199$0.12530%+141%5.0%moderado$7,809
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.44x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 172.3 ± 49.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0021%+433%0.2%cautela (no operable)$449
60-79$0.0062%+201%0.3%cautela (no operable)$100
200+$0.18529%+58%3.3%moderado$575
80-99$0.0334%+24%0.2%cautela (no operable)$232
160-179$0.14016%+13%0.5%moderado$326
lleva 24 · proyeccion 137.5 ± 40.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0055%+880%1.1%cautela (no operable)$758
40-59$0.0042%+451%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,443
80-99$0.02410%+309%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,439
100-119$0.08615%+80%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,324
120-139$0.11019%+74%2.3%moderado$734
lleva 118 · proyeccion 151.1 ± 21.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.05422%+310%4.5%cautela (no operable)$2,844
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.5x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.2 ± 28.8
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 34 · proyeccion 128.3 ± 22.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0031%+392%0.3%cautela (no operable)$713
80-99$0.0459%+93%1.1%cautela (no operable)$269
lleva 102 · proyeccion 141.1 ± 14.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0297%+132%1.0%cautela (no operable)$907
120-139$0.21539%+80%5.5%escalable$2,149
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.08x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 108.4 ± 18.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.0054%+735%0.9%cautela (no operable)$234
100-119$0.07842%+432%9.1%cautela (no operable)$385
120-139$0.11623%+96%3.1%moderado$204
lleva 9 · proyeccion 76.9 ± 14.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.09011%+21%0.5%cautela (no operable)$32
60-79$0.38546%+18%2.9%escalable$505
lleva 41 · proyeccion 68.3 ± 9.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.62072%+16%6.6%escalable$1,554
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 52.2 ± 12.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.09026%+193%4.8%cautela (no operable)$1,806
80-99$0.0051%+147%0.2%cautela (no operable)$686
40-59$0.46557%+23%4.9%escalable$2,129
lleva 4 · proyeccion 37.9 ± 10.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.30042%+40%4.3%escalable$5,036
lleva 23 · proyeccion 35.3 ± 6.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.14024%+75%3.0%moderado$6,528
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.3%Sobre-dispersion: 5.42x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.3 ± 12.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01122%+1853%5.4%cautela (no operable)$250
20-39$0.22556%+151%10.9%escalable$962
60-79$0.0051%+104%0.1%cautela (no operable)$209
lleva 4 · proyeccion 22.7 ± 10.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.26558%+118%10.6%escalable$2,173
40-59$0.0275%+78%0.5%cautela (no operable)$896
lleva 4 · proyeccion 12.3 ± 6.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01114%+1176%3.3%cautela (no operable)$1,020
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.3 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.04515%+224%2.7%cautela (no operable)$40
20-24$0.06510%+59%1.0%cautela (no operable)$30
10-14$0.13517%+28%1.1%moderado$104
25-29$0.0576%+6%0.1%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.0 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0056%+1099%1.4%cautela (no operable)$278
10-14$0.05418%+238%3.4%cautela (no operable)$316
15-19$0.05612%+116%1.7%cautela (no operable)$269
30-34$0.0051%+26%0.0%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.1 ± 6.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.04015%+267%2.8%cautela (no operable)$575
15-19$0.0184%+136%0.6%cautela (no operable)$381
5-9$0.22528%+26%1.9%escalable$1,057
20-24$0.0051%+26%0.0%cautela (no operable)$589