Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.141 51% +262% 10.7% moderado $1,009 Elon Musk 1000+ $0.345 84% +144% 18.9% escalable $25,127 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.260 49% +89% 7.8% escalable $6,190 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.125 23% +86% 3.1% moderado $9,764 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.535 87% +62% 17.8% escalable $1,153 The White House 180-199 $0.125 16% +26% 0.9% moderado $911 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.560 63% +12% 3.7% escalable $90 Ted Cruz 100-119 $0.295 33% +11% 1.2% escalable $683 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.340 37% +8% 1.0% escalable $2,328 Elon Musk <40 $0.220 23% +6% 0.4% escalable $29,574
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 12,919 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0% Sobre-dispersion: 24.76x 48 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 157 · proyeccion 1156.9 ± 157.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.345 84% +144% 18.9% escalable $25,127
lleva 0 · proyeccion 288.2 ± 84.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 380-399 $0.003 5% +1743% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $11,615 360-379 $0.004 6% +1598% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5,238 340-359 $0.005 7% +1218% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $4,641 320-339 $0.009 8% +830% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $4,065 400-419 $0.004 3% +651% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $6,406 300-319 $0.014 9% +552% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $4,173 420-439 $0.005 2% +368% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $7,479 280-299 $0.021 9% +360% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $5,882 500+ $0.002 1% +312% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $27,812 80-99 $0.003 1% +140% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $8,363 260-279 $0.043 9% +114% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $3,375 100-119 $0.005 1% +103% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $8,376 120-139 $0.011 2% +48% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $14,623
lleva 0 · proyeccion 182.5 ± 67.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240+ $0.005 20% +3868% 4.9% cautela (no operable) $1,135 165-189 $0.005 15% +2573% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $1,078 190-214 $0.005 14% +2473% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $1,219 140-164 $0.005 13% +2322% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $1,078 215-239 $0.005 12% +2276% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $1,140 115-139 $0.013 11% +680% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $58 90-114 $0.050 7% +45% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $19
lleva 96 · proyeccion 239.2 ± 59.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 300-319 $0.004 7% +1809% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $34,980 320-339 $0.003 4% +1605% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $21,763 280-299 $0.006 9% +1340% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $29,785 340-359 $0.003 2% +873% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $23,426 360-379 $0.002 1% +728% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $33,503 260-279 $0.021 12% +472% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $23,984 120-139 $0.004 2% +452% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $54,044 380-399 $0.002 1% +278% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $31,302 140-159 $0.019 4% +122% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $50,062 240-259 $0.080 13% +64% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $33,469
lleva 0 · proyeccion 61.2 ± 38.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.002 6% +4121% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $5,853 90-114 $0.011 15% +1188% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $8,936 165-189 $0.002 0% +133% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $12,549 65-89 $0.125 23% +86% 3.1% moderado $9,764 <40 $0.220 23% +6% 0.4% escalable $29,574
lleva 207 · proyeccion 227.9 ± 22.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.007 7% +906% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $153,522 240-259 $0.055 22% +304% 4.4% cautela (no operable) $129,220
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 6,113 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.8% Sobre-dispersion: 11.88x 32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 167.8 ± 44.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.005 16% +2868% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $37 120-139 $0.011 12% +1023% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $60 80-99 $0.005 4% +611% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $137 100-119 $0.011 8% +597% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $70 60-79 $0.004 2% +367% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $170 160-179 $0.056 18% +216% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $38 180-199 $0.125 16% +26% 0.9% moderado $911
lleva 108 · proyeccion 200.3 ± 33.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.009 16% +1541% 3.7% cautela (no operable) $374 180-199 $0.049 23% +360% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $1,563 100-119 $0.002 1% +208% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $231
lleva 272 · proyeccion 280.6 ± 10.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 5,437 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.5% Sobre-dispersion: 13.67x 37 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 153.0 ± 45.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 3% +511% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $96 80-99 $0.022 7% +198% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $0 40-59 $0.011 1% +21% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $10 100-119 $0.095 11% +17% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,225
lleva 93 · proyeccion 161.6 ± 30.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 6% +502% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,358 120-139 $0.070 15% +117% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $1,457 80-99 $0.010 2% +76% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,315
lleva 152 · proyeccion 160.2 ± 10.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.260 49% +89% 7.8% escalable $6,190
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 3,572 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.7x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 123.5 ± 28.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.005 2% +294% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $110 60-79 $0.016 5% +212% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $125 140-159 $0.090 18% +104% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $130
lleva 52 · proyeccion 119.2 ± 21.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.295 33% +11% 1.2% escalable $683
lleva 104 · proyeccion 110.5 ± 6.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.535 87% +62% 17.8% escalable $1,153
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 2,430 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 6.59x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 95.7 ± 25.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.033 13% +304% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $86 40-59 $0.037 6% +66% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $85 140-159 $0.022 4% +60% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $60 20-39 $0.011 1% +8% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $65
lleva 48 · proyeccion 100.2 ± 18.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.032 13% +313% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $333 40-59 $0.005 1% +146% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $354 100-119 $0.340 37% +8% 1.0% escalable $2,328
lleva 101 · proyeccion 111.0 ± 8.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.070 15% +111% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $533
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 1,086 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 2.57x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 40.2 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.050 50% +896% 11.8% cautela (no operable) $130 60-79 $0.006 3% +340% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $204
lleva 20 · proyeccion 39.7 ± 7.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.141 51% +262% 10.7% moderado $1,009
lleva 35 · proyeccion 36.9 ± 2.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.080 11% +40% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $1,277
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 654 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 19.0% Sobre-dispersion: 4.35x 28 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 25.7 ± 10.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.040 10% +138% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5 20-39 $0.560 63% +12% 3.7% escalable $90
lleva 13 · proyeccion 27.3 ± 7.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.032 6% +96% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $60 <20 $0.095 16% +69% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $1,718
lleva 23 · proyeccion 25.6 ± 3.4
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 155 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.0% Sobre-dispersion: 16.44x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.2 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-24 $0.002 6% +3834% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $77 5-9 $0.005 19% +3798% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $113 10-14 $0.005 17% +2925% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $127 15-19 $0.004 11% +2693% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $160 25-29 $0.004 2% +513% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $72 30-34 $0.004 1% +100% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $78 35-39 $0.002 0% +37% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $59
lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.2 ± 7.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.005 13% +2582% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $355 15-19 $0.005 5% +870% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $327 5-9 $0.041 24% +483% 5.1% cautela (no operable) $373 20-24 $0.005 1% +123% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $511
lleva 0 · proyeccion 0.6 ± 3.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.004 11% +2380% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $1,284
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).
Modelo: tasa de posteo historica por hora/dia de la semana + proyeccion calibrada con la sobre-dispersion real medida en backtest.
"cautela" = precio <$0.10, EV matematicamente inflado y no ejecutable en tamano real (ver nota en cada seccion). No es consejo financiero.