Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Elon Musk 1000+ $0.135 74% +452% 17.6% moderado $4,207 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100-119 $0.155 42% +169% 7.7% moderado $24 Elon Musk 65-89 $0.115 26% +129% 4.2% moderado $39,521 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.210 45% +117% 7.8% escalable $777 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.205 43% +108% 7.0% escalable $2,625 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.130 22% +68% 2.5% moderado $2,339 Donald Trump 200+ $0.250 42% +67% 5.6% escalable $1,030 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.340 57% +67% 8.7% escalable $733 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.165 27% +62% 3.1% moderado $173 Donald Trump 120-139 $0.110 16% +48% 1.5% moderado $1,468 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.430 58% +36% 6.8% escalable $1,350 Ali Khamenei 10-14 $0.130 17% +34% 1.3% moderado $0
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,217 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 202 · proyeccion 1099.2 ± 151.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.135 74% +452% 17.6% moderado $4,207 960-999 $0.043 8% +77% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $2,903
lleva 0 · proyeccion 360.6 ± 96.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 500+ $0.002 7% +4830% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $18,476 420-439 $0.002 6% +4178% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $3,969 400-419 $0.004 7% +1983% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $5,229 380-399 $0.004 8% +1882% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $1,055 360-379 $0.007 8% +1001% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $959 340-359 $0.009 8% +768% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $965 320-339 $0.011 8% +650% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,435 300-319 $0.017 7% +337% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $928 280-299 $0.026 6% +138% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $3,748
lleva 50 · proyeccion 257.9 ± 72.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 5% +3220% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $37,246 300-319 $0.005 9% +1447% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $23,746 380-399 $0.002 2% +1341% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $33,951 320-339 $0.006 7% +940% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $32,312 280-299 $0.013 10% +695% 2.2% cautela (no operable) $21,962 100-119 $0.004 1% +298% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $56,219 260-279 $0.029 11% +272% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $11,951 120-139 $0.015 2% +61% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $36,633 240-259 $0.075 11% +44% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $7,925
lleva 0 · proyeccion 123.2 ± 56.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 165-189 $0.002 11% +7379% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $661 140-164 $0.003 15% +6095% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $602 115-139 $0.011 18% +1575% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $100 90-114 $0.045 16% +265% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $261
lleva 134 · proyeccion 215.4 ± 45.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.003 5% +1791% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $86,956 260-279 $0.007 9% +1139% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $76,640 240-259 $0.021 13% +543% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $83,160 140-159 $0.011 6% +441% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $110,127 220-239 $0.065 17% +155% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $69,991
lleva 18 · proyeccion 61.2 ± 33.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 115-139 $0.002 4% +2898% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $28,177 90-114 $0.009 14% +1401% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $49,851 65-89 $0.115 26% +129% 4.2% moderado $39,521
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,338 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3% Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 184.6 ± 47.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.005 9% +1454% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $120 100-119 $0.005 5% +768% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $110 80-99 $0.005 2% +306% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $129 140-159 $0.034 13% +276% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $248 60-79 $0.005 1% +58% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $159
lleva 33 · proyeccion 149.4 ± 37.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 18% +5156% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $374 100-119 $0.004 12% +3352% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $439 140-159 $0.023 21% +819% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $774
lleva 118 · proyeccion 158.8 ± 22.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 15% +4280% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $1,766 140-159 $0.057 32% +464% 7.0% cautela (no operable) $4,842
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,083 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2% Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x 29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 188.7 ± 52.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 200+ $0.250 42% +67% 5.6% escalable $1,030 160-179 $0.125 14% +14% 0.5% moderado $474 180-199 $0.140 15% +9% 0.3% moderado $555
lleva 47 · proyeccion 155.3 ± 39.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.002 2% +1227% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $681 80-99 $0.006 5% +692% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $671 40-59 $0.002 1% +299% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,323 100-119 $0.036 10% +184% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $1,253 120-139 $0.110 16% +48% 1.5% moderado $1,468 140-159 $0.160 20% +24% 1.1% moderado $936 160-179 $0.160 19% +17% 0.8% moderado $1,292
lleva 141 · proyeccion 190.4 ± 26.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.051 10% +87% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $2,896 160-179 $0.130 22% +68% 2.5% moderado $2,339
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,486 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8% Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x 22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 141.3 ± 28.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.055 17% +212% 3.1% cautela (no operable) $0 140-159 $0.165 27% +62% 3.1% moderado $173 180-199 $0.045 7% +50% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $0 120-139 $0.215 26% +19% 1.3% escalable $0
lleva 36 · proyeccion 122.2 ± 21.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.051 12% +146% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $407 60-79 $0.018 2% +30% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $124
lleva 130 · proyeccion 160.1 ± 12.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.011 5% +376% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $886 140-159 $0.205 43% +108% 7.0% escalable $2,625
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,650 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1% Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 108.3 ± 18.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.081 23% +181% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $20 100-119 $0.155 42% +169% 7.7% moderado $24
lleva 19 · proyeccion 85.8 ± 14.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.120 16% +33% 1.1% moderado $452 80-99 $0.435 50% +15% 2.9% escalable $615 40-59 $0.030 3% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,236
lleva 49 · proyeccion 75.3 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.240 31% +31% 2.5% escalable $2,246
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 804 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.92x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 50.9 ± 12.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.073 23% +216% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $753 40-59 $0.430 58% +36% 6.8% escalable $1,350
lleva 9 · proyeccion 38.2 ± 9.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.009 2% +136% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $1,369 40-59 $0.370 44% +18% 2.6% escalable $3,290
lleva 24 · proyeccion 34.8 ± 5.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.705 79% +12% 7.5% escalable $4,785
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 29.9 ± 12.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.029 21% +652% 4.8% cautela (no operable) $0 20-39 $0.340 57% +67% 8.7% escalable $733
lleva 0 · proyeccion 18.9 ± 10.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.210 45% +117% 7.8% escalable $777
lleva 6 · proyeccion 13.2 ± 6.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.046 16% +242% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $2,976
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9% Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x 9 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 9.2 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 30-34 $0.005 2% +292% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $12 15-19 $0.060 14% +134% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $0 20-24 $0.041 9% +128% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $11 10-14 $0.130 17% +34% 1.3% moderado $0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 5.2 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.038 17% +350% 3.5% cautela (no operable) $229 15-19 $0.028 9% +218% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $113 20-24 $0.023 3% +36% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $112
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 4.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.070 23% +225% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $4,136 10-14 $0.016 5% +188% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $2,408
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).