Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol The White House 180-199 $0.135 38% +179% 7.0% moderado $13,768 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 52% +79% 8.0% escalable $3,783 Donald Trump 160-179 $0.430 73% +69% 13.0% escalable $6,984 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.335 56% +66% 8.3% escalable $1,223 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.290 45% +57% 5.8% escalable $579 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.270 40% +46% 4.3% escalable $1,140 Ted Cruz 140-159 $0.430 55% +29% 5.4% escalable $4,745 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.475 59% +25% 5.6% escalable $2,969 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.130 16% +22% 0.8% moderado $1,662 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.325 39% +21% 2.6% escalable $899 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.290 34% +17% 1.7% escalable $5,522 Elon Musk 90-114 $0.234 27% +13% 1.0% escalable $41,860
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,349 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.65x 40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 334 · proyeccion 1029.0 ± 133.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.065 59% +804% 14.0% cautela (no operable) $6,419 960-999 $0.033 11% +237% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $9,210 920-959 $0.074 10% +28% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $4,349
lleva 0 · proyeccion 287.5 ± 85.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 400-419 $0.002 3% +2164% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $4,229 380-399 $0.003 5% +1738% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $3,680 360-379 $0.004 6% +1583% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $5,274 340-359 $0.005 7% +1200% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $4,277 320-339 $0.006 8% +1166% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $6,205 300-319 $0.011 9% +680% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $7,832 500+ $0.002 1% +352% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $20,530 280-299 $0.025 9% +263% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $7,478 80-99 $0.003 1% +163% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $23,374 260-279 $0.045 9% +102% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $1,684
lleva 96 · proyeccion 257.3 ± 64.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 340-359 $0.002 4% +2876% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $24,701 320-339 $0.003 7% +2548% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $21,883 300-319 $0.004 9% +1881% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $36,728 120-139 $0.002 2% +1061% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $75,138 280-299 $0.015 11% +653% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $31,919 260-279 $0.051 12% +140% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $30,112 140-159 $0.021 3% +50% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $38,371 240-259 $0.115 12% +7% 0.2% moderado $23,060
lleva 44 · proyeccion 95.2 ± 36.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-164 $0.003 8% +3223% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $20,245 165-189 $0.002 2% +1460% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $19,573 115-139 $0.032 19% +492% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $28,468 90-114 $0.234 27% +13% 1.0% escalable $41,860
lleva 182 · proyeccion 191.9 ± 16.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.002 4% +2622% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $248,600 200-219 $0.037 28% +636% 6.2% cautela (no operable) $340,221
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,500 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.27x 24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 152.7 ± 41.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.007 16% +2234% 3.9% cautela (no operable) $229 100-119 $0.005 11% +1934% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $255 80-99 $0.005 6% +1009% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $371 140-159 $0.025 19% +660% 4.2% cautela (no operable) $263 60-79 $0.005 3% +381% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $404 160-179 $0.075 18% +134% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $455
lleva 98 · proyeccion 174.1 ± 29.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.005 26% +4702% 6.5% cautela (no operable) $3,168 140-159 $0.006 19% +2829% 4.6% cautela (no operable) $2,654
lleva 195 · proyeccion 202.2 ± 9.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 180-199 $0.135 38% +179% 7.0% moderado $13,768
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,205 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.22x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 144.6 ± 45.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.002 2% +1236% 0.5% cautela (no operable) $534 60-79 $0.006 5% +596% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $115 80-99 $0.023 8% +267% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $356 100-119 $0.065 13% +102% 1.8% cautela (no operable) $435 20-39 $0.004 1% +63% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $417
lleva 75 · proyeccion 159.9 ± 34.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 3% +667% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $3,574 60-79 $0.003 1% +236% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $1,907 120-139 $0.060 16% +160% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $1,093 100-119 $0.057 8% +44% 0.7% cautela (no operable) $1,488 180-199 $0.130 16% +22% 0.8% moderado $1,662
lleva 169 · proyeccion 173.6 ± 8.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.430 73% +69% 13.0% escalable $6,984
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,605 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.01x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 117.7 ± 26.6
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.005 6% +1124% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $18 40-59 $0.004 1% +182% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $388 80-99 $0.075 17% +129% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $46 120-139 $0.250 27% +7% 0.6% escalable $228
lleva 86 · proyeccion 146.0 ± 19.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.003 1% +130% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $646 100-119 $0.041 7% +80% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $561 140-159 $0.270 40% +46% 4.3% escalable $1,140
lleva 154 · proyeccion 158.8 ± 5.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.430 55% +29% 5.4% escalable $4,745
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,694 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2% Sobre-dispersion: 3.09x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 87.7 ± 16.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.004 3% +636% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $271 100-119 $0.044 21% +376% 4.3% cautela (no operable) $452 80-99 $0.290 45% +57% 5.8% escalable $579
lleva 30 · proyeccion 77.3 ± 12.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.325 39% +21% 2.6% escalable $899
lleva 62 · proyeccion 68.6 ± 4.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 827 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8% Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.4 ± 11.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.290 52% +79% 8.0% escalable $3,783
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.1 ± 8.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.012 2% +81% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $3,176 40-59 $0.290 34% +17% 1.7% escalable $5,522
lleva 32 · proyeccion 33.6 ± 2.2
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 458 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6% Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x 20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 23.2 ± 11.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.011 7% +582% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $256 20-39 $0.335 56% +66% 8.3% escalable $1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 21.6 ± 7.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.475 59% +25% 5.6% escalable $2,969
lleva 10 · proyeccion 11.2 ± 2.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.6 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.051 13% +155% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $40 10-14 $0.090 19% +111% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $325 20-24 $0.062 7% +6% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $30
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 7.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 10-14 $0.023 18% +690% 4.1% cautela (no operable) $499 15-19 $0.011 8% +585% 1.6% cautela (no operable) $321 20-24 $0.005 2% +286% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $320
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.5 ± 2.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.025 21% +710% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $1,446
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).