CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
Elon Musk	1000+	$0.165	75%	+356%	17.6%	moderado	$3,492
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	100-119	$0.120	38%	+220%	7.5%	moderado	$0
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	60-79	$0.130	36%	+176%	6.6%	moderado	$534
Ted Cruz	140-159	$0.175	47%	+167%	8.8%	moderado	$2,049
Ali Khamenei	5-9	$0.105	26%	+144%	4.2%	moderado	$3,919
Donald Trump	200+	$0.225	54%	+138%	10.0%	escalable	$778
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.335	55%	+64%	8.1%	escalable	$8
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.160	25%	+59%	2.8%	moderado	$2,707
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.320	50%	+58%	6.8%	escalable	$765
Donald Trump	160-179	$0.170	23%	+36%	1.8%	moderado	$2,208
Ted Cruz	100-119	$0.235	32%	+35%	2.7%	escalable	$215
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.300	40%	+34%	3.7%	escalable	$2,857

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,185 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.56x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 26% del periodo

lleva 170 · proyeccion 1105.1 ± 154.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.165	75%	+356%	17.6%	moderado	$3,492

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 398.1 ± 100.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
500+	$0.002	16%	+10385%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$10,630
400-419	$0.002	8%	+5131%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$240
420-439	$0.002	8%	+4916%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$190
380-399	$0.004	8%	+2148%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$200
360-379	$0.006	8%	+1067%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$62
340-359	$0.007	7%	+838%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$187
320-339	$0.013	6%	+402%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$175
300-319	$0.017	5%	+216%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$451
280-299	$0.028	4%	+61%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,513

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 263.2 ± 79.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
360-379	$0.002	4%	+2631%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$22,561
340-359	$0.003	6%	+2125%	1.3%	cautela (no operable)	$21,118
380-399	$0.002	3%	+1788%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$28,992
320-339	$0.004	7%	+1475%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$15,027
300-319	$0.009	8%	+897%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$13,318
280-299	$0.017	10%	+460%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$13,480
60-79	$0.002	1%	+242%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$20,568
260-279	$0.038	10%	+164%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$5,180
80-99	$0.004	1%	+162%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$37,196
100-119	$0.009	2%	+72%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$40,107
240-259	$0.075	10%	+32%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$4,793

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 102 · proyeccion 220.6 ± 55.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
300-319	$0.003	4%	+1488%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$55,290
320-339	$0.002	2%	+1289%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$40,563
280-299	$0.005	7%	+1108%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$46,885
260-279	$0.014	10%	+597%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$56,159
240-259	$0.033	13%	+287%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$45,402
120-139	$0.015	4%	+157%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$81,139
220-239	$0.075	14%	+90%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$44,981

Elon Musk # tweets August 8 - August 10, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 80.4 ± 45.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.002	6%	+4194%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$4,494
115-139	$0.007	13%	+1631%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$6,364
90-114	$0.037	19%	+426%	4.1%	cautela (no operable)	$7,168
65-89	$0.175	22%	+24%	1.3%	moderado	$5,725

Elon Musk # tweets August 6 - August 8, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 36 · proyeccion 43.1 ± 13.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
65-89	$0.007	6%	+700%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$79,396
<40	$0.375	39%	+5%	0.8%	escalable	$97,166

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,326 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.94x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.3 ± 48.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.005	1%	+161%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$17
140-159	$0.050	10%	+102%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$21
120-139	$0.040	6%	+56%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$61
200+	$0.410	48%	+18%	3.0%	escalable	$87

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 150.1 ± 39.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.004	18%	+4920%	4.3%	cautela (no operable)	$361
100-119	$0.004	12%	+3304%	2.9%	cautela (no operable)	$426
140-159	$0.032	20%	+538%	4.4%	cautela (no operable)	$581
160-179	$0.165	18%	+8%	0.4%	moderado	$658

White House # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 106 · proyeccion 159.5 ± 25.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.002	16%	+7782%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,029
100-119	$0.002	5%	+3097%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$463
140-159	$0.043	29%	+572%	6.3%	cautela (no operable)	$2,710

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,054 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.45x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.4 ± 54.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.225	54%	+138%	10.0%	escalable	$778
160-179	$0.075	12%	+59%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$210
180-199	$0.115	14%	+22%	0.7%	moderado	$261

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 24 · proyeccion 148.4 ± 42.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.004	1%	+269%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$453
100-119	$0.052	12%	+135%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,050
80-99	$0.036	7%	+101%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$578
20-39	$0.004	0%	+12%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,128

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 118 · proyeccion 183.5 ± 30.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.018	6%	+229%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$1,850
140-159	$0.050	14%	+182%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,506
160-179	$0.170	23%	+36%	1.8%	moderado	$2,208

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,469 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.55x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.8 ± 29.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
200+	$0.025	5%	+101%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$40

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 20 · proyeccion 117.0 ± 23.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.018	5%	+158%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$97
100-119	$0.235	32%	+35%	2.7%	escalable	$215

Ted Cruz # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 114 · proyeccion 154.9 ± 15.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.011	14%	+1156%	3.4%	cautela (no operable)	$782
140-159	$0.175	47%	+167%	8.8%	moderado	$2,049
100-119	$0.005	1%	+86%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$517

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,639 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.06x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 115.9 ± 18.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.050	32%	+539%	7.1%	cautela (no operable)	$0
100-119	$0.120	38%	+220%	7.5%	moderado	$0

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 9 · proyeccion 83.7 ± 15.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.115	14%	+21%	0.7%	moderado	$276

Zelenskyy # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 39 · proyeccion 73.1 ± 10.2

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 798 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.5%Sobre-dispersion: 2.94x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 56.0 ± 12.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.130	36%	+176%	6.6%	moderado	$534
40-59	$0.450	51%	+13%	2.7%	escalable	$1,250

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 3 · proyeccion 37.4 ± 10.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
<20	$0.026	4%	+44%	0.3%	cautela (no operable)	$1,125
40-59	$0.300	40%	+34%	3.7%	escalable	$2,857

NYC Mayor # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 18 · proyeccion 34.0 ± 6.9

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 31.6 ± 13.1

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.069	26%	+270%	5.0%	cautela (no operable)	$0
20-39	$0.335	55%	+64%	8.1%	escalable	$8

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 20.6 ± 10.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.320	50%	+58%	6.8%	escalable	$765

CZ # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 6 · proyeccion 14.9 ± 6.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.160	25%	+59%	2.8%	moderado	$2,707

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 16.9%Sobre-dispersion: 13.08x9 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.5 ± 11.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
25-29	$0.025	6%	+160%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$50
35-39	$0.011	1%	+30%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$22
10-14	$0.145	17%	+16%	0.7%	moderado	$0

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 6.5 ± 9.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-24	$0.013	5%	+326%	1.0%	cautela (no operable)	$82
10-14	$0.056	18%	+224%	3.3%	cautela (no operable)	$199
15-19	$0.037	11%	+205%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$83

Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026? 57% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 3.0 ± 6.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.006	3%	+350%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,321
10-14	$0.030	12%	+290%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,119
5-9	$0.105	26%	+144%	4.2%	moderado	$3,919