CHATTER · conteo de posts como mercado

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

Cuenta	Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
CZ (Binance)	20-39	$0.195	53%	+170%	10.3%	moderado	$704
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	60-79	$0.120	31%	+156%	5.3%	moderado	$1,526
Donald Trump	200+	$0.185	36%	+96%	5.4%	moderado	$421
Elon Musk	40-64	$0.215	37%	+71%	4.9%	escalable	$40,132
The White House	200+	$0.355	54%	+52%	7.2%	escalable	$20
Donald Trump	100-119	$0.102	14%	+39%	1.1%	moderado	$1,209
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	80-99	$0.180	25%	+38%	2.1%	moderado	$1,202
Ali Khamenei	15-19	$0.107	15%	+38%	1.1%	moderado	$20
Ted Cruz	120-139	$0.270	36%	+35%	3.2%	escalable	$1,769
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)	40-59	$0.310	41%	+32%	3.6%	escalable	$5,007
Elon Musk	180-199	$0.115	14%	+24%	0.8%	moderado	$64,732
Ali Khamenei	10-14	$0.140	17%	+24%	1.0%	moderado	$84

Elon Musk

@elonmusk · 11,263 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x40 ventanas historicas analizadas

Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? 35% del periodo

lleva 248 · proyeccion 1043.7 ± 142.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
1000+	$0.065	62%	+856%	14.9%	cautela (no operable)	$4,775
960-999	$0.019	10%	+430%	2.1%	cautela (no operable)	$4,488
920-959	$0.040	9%	+114%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$2,663
880-919	$0.050	7%	+34%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$2,814

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 387.8 ± 99.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
500+	$0.002	13%	+8644%	3.2%	cautela (no operable)	$6,971
420-439	$0.002	7%	+4783%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,253
440-459	$0.002	7%	+4302%	1.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,868
380-399	$0.003	8%	+3097%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$790
400-419	$0.003	8%	+3022%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$790
360-379	$0.005	8%	+1329%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$892
340-359	$0.005	7%	+1250%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$1,310
320-339	$0.011	7%	+542%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,639
300-319	$0.013	6%	+335%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$2,315
280-299	$0.022	5%	+124%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$4,358

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 10 · proyeccion 271.2 ± 81.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
360-379	$0.002	5%	+3064%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$4,544
340-359	$0.002	6%	+2985%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$8,476
320-339	$0.004	8%	+2060%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$8,180
300-319	$0.006	9%	+1243%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$11,303
440-459	$0.002	1%	+511%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$14,032
280-299	$0.017	9%	+475%	2.0%	cautela (no operable)	$10,641
260-279	$0.031	10%	+214%	1.7%	cautela (no operable)	$5,055
80-99	$0.003	1%	+178%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$34,589
240-259	$0.065	9%	+44%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$4,183

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 151.1 ± 62.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-164	$0.002	16%	+10515%	4.0%	cautela (no operable)	$611
165-189	$0.002	15%	+9648%	3.6%	cautela (no operable)	$611
115-139	$0.009	15%	+1543%	3.5%	cautela (no operable)	$796
90-114	$0.044	12%	+166%	1.9%	cautela (no operable)	$941

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 96 · proyeccion 205.8 ± 53.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
260-279	$0.002	7%	+4793%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$60,411
240-259	$0.004	11%	+2957%	2.6%	cautela (no operable)	$58,823
220-239	$0.013	14%	+904%	3.1%	cautela (no operable)	$42,431
100-119	$0.004	3%	+551%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$135,560
200-219	$0.065	15%	+130%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$39,673
180-199	$0.115	14%	+24%	0.8%	moderado	$64,732

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026? 100% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 46.1 ± 25.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
65-89	$0.011	19%	+1636%	4.5%	cautela (no operable)	$67,959
40-64	$0.215	37%	+71%	4.9%	escalable	$40,132

The White House

@WhiteHouse · 4,434 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.55x24 ventanas historicas analizadas

White House # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.5 ± 48.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.019	5%	+158%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$22
80-99	$0.006	1%	+72%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$102
200+	$0.355	54%	+52%	7.2%	escalable	$20
140-159	$0.060	9%	+44%	0.7%	cautela (no operable)	$0
100-119	$0.023	2%	+8%	0.1%	cautela (no operable)	$22

White House # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 32 · proyeccion 160.4 ± 38.5

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
140-159	$0.005	20%	+3841%	4.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,078
160-179	$0.051	20%	+291%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$1,324

White House # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 129 · proyeccion 188.5 ± 26.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
160-179	$0.013	23%	+1680%	5.5%	cautela (no operable)	$3,731
120-139	$0.002	3%	+1671%	0.6%	cautela (no operable)	$1,369
140-159	$0.007	10%	+1379%	2.4%	cautela (no operable)	$2,721

Donald Trump

@realDonaldTrump · 4,149 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 181.5 ± 51.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
60-79	$0.006	1%	+124%	0.2%	cautela (no operable)	$80
200+	$0.185	36%	+96%	5.4%	moderado	$421
40-59	$0.005	1%	+6%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$322

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 19 · proyeccion 141.5 ± 42.0

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.004	2%	+412%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$1,347
80-99	$0.018	9%	+393%	1.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,309
60-79	$0.009	4%	+369%	0.9%	cautela (no operable)	$497
100-119	$0.102	14%	+39%	1.1%	moderado	$1,209
120-139	$0.150	18%	+20%	0.9%	moderado	$592

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 113 · proyeccion 155.2 ± 24.7

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.005	6%	+1141%	1.4%	cautela (no operable)	$4,039
120-139	$0.040	19%	+371%	3.9%	cautela (no operable)	$2,556

Ted Cruz

@tedcruz · 2,545 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.51x22 ventanas historicas analizadas

Ted Cruz # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 159.7 ± 29.7

Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.

Ted Cruz # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 26 · proyeccion 128.8 ± 23.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.095	33%	+243%	6.4%	cautela (no operable)	$83
80-99	$0.045	9%	+100%	1.2%	cautela (no operable)	$264
160-179	$0.050	8%	+63%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$48
60-79	$0.017	2%	+6%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$568

Ted Cruz # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 94 · proyeccion 141.5 ± 16.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.050	8%	+64%	0.8%	cautela (no operable)	$827
120-139	$0.270	36%	+35%	3.2%	escalable	$1,769

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@ZelenskyyUa · 1,669 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

Zelenskyy # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.8 ± 18.9

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
120-139	$0.060	33%	+447%	7.1%	cautela (no operable)	$0
100-119	$0.080	38%	+370%	8.0%	cautela (no operable)	$0
140-159	$0.045	10%	+130%	1.5%	cautela (no operable)	$30

Zelenskyy # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 5 · proyeccion 81.2 ± 15.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
100-119	$0.070	11%	+57%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$146

Zelenskyy # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 37 · proyeccion 72.5 ± 10.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.180	25%	+38%	2.1%	moderado	$1,202

Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)

@NYCMayor · 816 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas

NYC Mayor # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 12.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
80-99	$0.005	2%	+277%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$686
60-79	$0.120	31%	+156%	5.3%	moderado	$1,526
40-59	$0.485	55%	+13%	3.0%	escalable	$2,032

NYC Mayor # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 2 · proyeccion 37.6 ± 10.2

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.310	41%	+32%	3.6%	escalable	$5,007

NYC Mayor # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.1 ± 6.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.710	75%	+5%	3.1%	escalable	$6,926

CZ (Binance)

@cz_binance · 448 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas

CZ # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 33.3 ± 13.4

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.016	30%	+1750%	7.1%	cautela (no operable)	$212
60-79	$0.005	2%	+355%	0.5%	cautela (no operable)	$158
20-39	$0.195	53%	+170%	10.3%	moderado	$704

CZ # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.6 ± 10.8

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
40-59	$0.005	5%	+789%	1.1%	cautela (no operable)	$609
20-39	$0.085	53%	+522%	12.1%	cautela (no operable)	$1,492

CZ # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.6 ± 7.6

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
20-39	$0.011	12%	+1002%	2.8%	cautela (no operable)	$1,012

Ali Khamenei

@khamenei_ir · 150 posts registrados

MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas

Khamenei # posts August 14 - August 21, 2026? 0% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
15-19	$0.107	15%	+38%	1.1%	moderado	$20
10-14	$0.140	17%	+24%	1.0%	moderado	$84

Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026? 14% del periodo

lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.075	18%	+146%	3.0%	cautela (no operable)	$272
20-24	$0.045	6%	+34%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$253
30-34	$0.005	1%	+31%	0.0%	cautela (no operable)	$253

Khamenei # posts August 7 - August 14, 2026? 71% del periodo

lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3

Bucket	Precio	Modelo	EV	Kelly	Confianza	Vol
10-14	$0.065	15%	+130%	2.2%	cautela (no operable)	$575
15-19	$0.028	4%	+53%	0.4%	cautela (no operable)	$381
5-9	$0.240	28%	+17%	1.4%	escalable	$1,025