CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-29 23:25 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.16559%+259%12.8%moderado$83
Elon Musk1000+$0.355100%+182%25.0%escalable$1,108
The White House140-159$0.13033%+157%5.8%moderado$3,373
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.29065%+125%12.8%escalable$154
Ted Cruz140-159$0.17036%+114%5.9%moderado$1,709
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.11525%+113%3.7%moderado$500
CZ (Binance)40-59$0.10521%+104%3.0%moderado$60
The White House200+$0.22044%+101%7.1%escalable$24
Volodymyr Zelenskyy120-139$0.13024%+88%3.3%moderado$0
Elon Musk65-89$0.14524%+69%2.9%moderado$18,414
Ted Cruz120-139$0.17028%+65%3.3%moderado$180
Donald Trump160-179$0.11518%+61%2.0%moderado$639
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.63x43 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 2476.0 ± 251.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.355100%+182%25.0%escalable$1,108
lleva 0 · proyeccion 372.8 ± 97.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00210%+6396%2.4%cautela (no operable)$7,237
420-439$0.0027%+4494%1.7%cautela (no operable)$512
400-419$0.0038%+2938%1.8%cautela (no operable)$5,333
380-399$0.0058%+1360%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,627
360-379$0.0078%+986%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,538
340-359$0.0138%+534%1.7%cautela (no operable)$1,752
320-339$0.0177%+348%1.5%cautela (no operable)$638
300-319$0.0217%+222%1.2%cautela (no operable)$353
280-299$0.0286%+106%0.8%cautela (no operable)$406
lleva 39 · proyeccion 263.2 ± 75.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
380-399$0.0023%+1659%0.6%cautela (no operable)$10,883
360-379$0.0034%+1479%0.9%cautela (no operable)$15,331
340-359$0.0046%+1277%1.3%cautela (no operable)$16,586
400-419$0.0022%+998%0.4%cautela (no operable)$16,167
320-339$0.0087%+797%1.6%cautela (no operable)$16,151
300-319$0.0119%+658%1.9%cautela (no operable)$12,094
280-299$0.01810%+465%2.1%cautela (no operable)$6,709
260-279$0.03810%+172%1.7%cautela (no operable)$7,333
80-99$0.0031%+157%0.1%cautela (no operable)$34,026
240-259$0.06510%+59%1.0%cautela (no operable)$5,277
lleva 0 · proyeccion 140.2 ± 59.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
165-189$0.00414%+3819%3.4%cautela (no operable)$440
140-164$0.00416%+3501%4.0%cautela (no operable)$25
215-239$0.0036%+2250%1.4%cautela (no operable)$8
190-214$0.00510%+1856%2.3%cautela (no operable)$8
115-139$0.01116%+1436%3.8%cautela (no operable)$87
240+$0.0055%+875%1.1%cautela (no operable)$8
90-114$0.05514%+146%2.1%cautela (no operable)$37
lleva 96 · proyeccion 194.4 ± 50.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0045%+1062%1.2%cautela (no operable)$38,897
240-259$0.0119%+729%1.9%cautela (no operable)$36,841
280-299$0.0043%+667%0.6%cautela (no operable)$35,881
300-319$0.0031%+372%0.2%cautela (no operable)$36,165
220-239$0.03412%+270%2.3%cautela (no operable)$39,594
100-119$0.0124%+221%0.7%cautela (no operable)$109,589
320-339$0.0020%+195%0.1%cautela (no operable)$35,921
200-219$0.08515%+78%1.8%cautela (no operable)$35,119
lleva 819 · proyeccion 896.5 ± 44.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
960-999$0.0087%+756%1.5%cautela (no operable)$34,024
920-959$0.03222%+612%5.0%cautela (no operable)$30,277
800-839$0.0369%+138%1.3%cautela (no operable)$85,518
1000+$0.0081%+31%0.1%cautela (no operable)$25,624
880-919$0.28035%+23%2.3%escalable$27,387
lleva 10 · proyeccion 71.4 ± 39.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
115-139$0.00910%+1026%2.2%cautela (no operable)$31,942
140-164$0.0043%+741%0.7%cautela (no operable)$8,865
90-114$0.03319%+462%3.9%cautela (no operable)$19,502
165-189$0.0021%+436%0.2%cautela (no operable)$10,257
65-89$0.14524%+69%2.9%moderado$18,414
MAE @75% del periodo: 6.9%Sobre-dispersion: 10.27x27 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 192.9 ± 44.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0337%+102%0.8%cautela (no operable)$8
200+$0.22044%+101%7.1%escalable$24
140-159$0.06511%+71%1.2%cautela (no operable)$12
lleva 35 · proyeccion 157.0 ± 35.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0039%+2985%2.2%cautela (no operable)$141
120-139$0.02617%+526%3.6%cautela (no operable)$239
80-99$0.0114%+244%0.7%cautela (no operable)$126
140-159$0.06422%+243%4.1%cautela (no operable)$254
60-79$0.0051%+106%0.1%cautela (no operable)$186
lleva 113 · proyeccion 157.9 ± 21.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00516%+3071%3.9%cautela (no operable)$2,061
140-159$0.13033%+157%5.8%moderado$3,373
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.77x32 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 197.9 ± 54.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0052%+266%0.4%cautela (no operable)$147
120-139$0.0267%+156%1.0%cautela (no operable)$269
60-79$0.0051%+64%0.1%cautela (no operable)$161
100-119$0.0254%+53%0.3%cautela (no operable)$140
160-179$0.10513%+22%0.6%moderado$289
lleva 43 · proyeccion 158.3 ± 41.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.00315%+4924%3.7%cautela (no operable)$404
100-119$0.00310%+3112%2.3%cautela (no operable)$301
80-99$0.0065%+716%1.1%cautela (no operable)$192
60-79$0.0032%+558%0.4%cautela (no operable)$204
140-159$0.03219%+485%4.0%cautela (no operable)$424
40-59$0.0031%+111%0.1%cautela (no operable)$759
160-179$0.11518%+61%2.0%moderado$639
lleva 158 · proyeccion 211.3 ± 28.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.00510%+1818%2.3%cautela (no operable)$2,631
180-199$0.06521%+220%3.8%cautela (no operable)$3,309
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.6%Sobre-dispersion: 7.14x25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 153.0 ± 33.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.09513%+38%1.0%cautela (no operable)$24
lleva 24 · proyeccion 120.2 ± 26.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.00515%+2711%3.8%cautela (no operable)$178
100-119$0.04827%+478%6.0%cautela (no operable)$139
60-79$0.0255%+104%0.7%cautela (no operable)$115
120-139$0.17028%+65%3.3%moderado$180
lleva 126 · proyeccion 161.6 ± 15.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.17036%+114%5.9%moderado$1,709
120-139$0.0608%+31%0.5%cautela (no operable)$808
160-179$0.38542%+10%1.5%escalable$169
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.2%Sobre-dispersion: 7.3x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.8 ± 29.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.13024%+88%3.3%moderado$0
100-119$0.20026%+30%1.9%escalable$75
140-159$0.13015%+13%0.5%moderado$0
lleva 14 · proyeccion 87.1 ± 23.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.07522%+187%3.8%cautela (no operable)$464
40-59$0.05910%+65%1.0%cautela (no operable)$243
20-39$0.0112%+56%0.2%cautela (no operable)$145
lleva 97 · proyeccion 128.8 ± 15.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0053%+432%0.5%cautela (no operable)$887
100-119$0.16024%+52%2.5%moderado$1,196
140-159$0.19722%+12%0.7%moderado$723
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6%Sobre-dispersion: 2.8x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 51.1 ± 12.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.00623%+3778%5.7%cautela (no operable)$67
40-59$0.16559%+259%12.8%moderado$83
80-99$0.0051%+60%0.1%cautela (no operable)$67
lleva 3 · proyeccion 33.2 ± 9.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0117%+516%1.4%cautela (no operable)$351
40-59$0.11525%+113%3.7%moderado$500
lleva 23 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 5.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.07522%+195%4.0%cautela (no operable)$1,894
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.11x23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 30.0 ± 12.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.10521%+104%3.0%moderado$60
60-79$0.0061%+34%0.1%cautela (no operable)$60
lleva 14 · proyeccion 33.2 ± 9.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0208%+314%1.6%cautela (no operable)$154
20-39$0.29065%+125%12.8%escalable$154
lleva 34 · proyeccion 41.4 ± 6.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.31538%+21%2.4%escalable$4,320
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.1%Sobre-dispersion: 12.17x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 8.6 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0408%+109%1.1%cautela (no operable)$0
5-9$0.17019%+12%0.6%moderado$0
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.9 ± 7.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.05024%+389%5.1%cautela (no operable)$677
20-24$0.0062%+306%0.5%cautela (no operable)$251
15-19$0.0208%+293%1.5%cautela (no operable)$225
10-14$0.06217%+171%2.9%cautela (no operable)$361
lleva 0 · proyeccion 1.7 ± 4.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.0054%+670%0.9%cautela (no operable)$1,485
5-9$0.04923%+369%4.7%cautela (no operable)$1,016