CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-12 05:05 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100-119$0.11538%+227%7.4%moderado$0
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.19553%+172%10.4%moderado$704
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)60-79$0.12531%+145%5.2%moderado$1,526
Elon Musk40-64$0.15537%+142%6.5%moderado$42,160
Donald Trump200+$0.18534%+85%4.8%moderado$431
Ted Cruz120-139$0.19533%+68%4.1%moderado$89
Ted Cruz120-139$0.24038%+59%4.7%escalable$1,826
Ted Cruz140-159$0.14022%+58%2.4%moderado$925
The White House200+$0.35554%+52%7.2%escalable$20
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.17025%+46%2.3%moderado$1,202
Ali Khamenei15-19$0.10515%+40%1.2%moderado$20
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.31541%+30%3.4%escalable$5,007
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 248 · proyeccion 1041.5 ± 142.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.06562%+848%14.7%cautela (no operable)$4,805
960-999$0.01710%+516%2.2%cautela (no operable)$4,533
920-959$0.0409%+119%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,693
880-919$0.0457%+51%0.6%cautela (no operable)$2,844
lleva 0 · proyeccion 385.6 ± 99.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
500+$0.00213%+8297%3.1%cautela (no operable)$7,018
420-439$0.0027%+4749%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,253
440-459$0.0027%+4250%1.6%cautela (no operable)$1,868
380-399$0.0038%+3104%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
400-419$0.0038%+3015%1.9%cautela (no operable)$790
360-379$0.0058%+1338%1.9%cautela (no operable)$892
340-359$0.0058%+1264%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,310
320-339$0.0097%+704%1.5%cautela (no operable)$2,159
300-319$0.0136%+360%1.2%cautela (no operable)$2,315
280-299$0.0235%+119%0.7%cautela (no operable)$4,487
lleva 10 · proyeccion 269.1 ± 81.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
360-379$0.0025%+2958%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,589
340-359$0.0026%+2908%1.5%cautela (no operable)$8,476
320-339$0.0047%+2023%1.8%cautela (no operable)$8,180
300-319$0.0069%+1230%2.0%cautela (no operable)$11,803
280-299$0.0139%+658%2.1%cautela (no operable)$11,046
440-459$0.0021%+468%0.2%cautela (no operable)$14,032
260-279$0.02110%+354%1.9%cautela (no operable)$5,160
80-99$0.0031%+248%0.2%cautela (no operable)$34,589
240-259$0.0559%+73%1.1%cautela (no operable)$4,187
lleva 0 · proyeccion 149.0 ± 61.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.00216%+10579%4.0%cautela (no operable)$631
165-189$0.00214%+9560%3.6%cautela (no operable)$631
115-139$0.00915%+1486%3.6%cautela (no operable)$796
90-114$0.04412%+174%2.0%cautela (no operable)$941
lleva 96 · proyeccion 203.7 ± 52.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
260-279$0.0027%+4535%1.7%cautela (no operable)$62,399
240-259$0.00410%+2863%2.5%cautela (no operable)$64,859
220-239$0.01313%+893%3.0%cautela (no operable)$52,796
200-219$0.02415%+539%3.2%cautela (no operable)$42,491
100-119$0.0113%+194%0.5%cautela (no operable)$143,328
180-199$0.07515%+94%1.9%cautela (no operable)$69,533
lleva 21 · proyeccion 44.0 ± 24.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
65-89$0.00917%+1884%4.0%cautela (no operable)$70,293
40-64$0.15537%+142%6.5%moderado$42,160
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.55x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 204.5 ± 48.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0205%+152%0.8%cautela (no operable)$22
80-99$0.0051%+88%0.1%cautela (no operable)$102
200+$0.35554%+52%7.2%escalable$20
140-159$0.0659%+33%0.6%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.0232%+8%0.1%cautela (no operable)$22
lleva 32 · proyeccion 160.4 ± 38.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-159$0.02920%+592%4.3%cautela (no operable)$1,315
160-179$0.03220%+523%4.3%cautela (no operable)$1,324
lleva 129 · proyeccion 188.5 ± 26.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.01323%+1682%5.5%cautela (no operable)$3,731
140-159$0.00710%+1381%2.4%cautela (no operable)$2,721
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.2%Sobre-dispersion: 14.42x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 178.9 ± 50.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0062%+143%0.2%cautela (no operable)$80
200+$0.18534%+85%4.8%moderado$431
160-179$0.13015%+18%0.7%moderado$126
40-59$0.0051%+15%0.0%cautela (no operable)$442
lleva 19 · proyeccion 138.9 ± 41.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0095%+470%1.0%cautela (no operable)$497
40-59$0.0042%+462%0.4%cautela (no operable)$1,347
80-99$0.01910%+400%1.9%cautela (no operable)$1,323
100-119$0.09615%+55%1.5%cautela (no operable)$1,209
120-139$0.15019%+24%1.0%moderado$592
lleva 113 · proyeccion 152.6 ± 23.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0047%+1896%1.7%cautela (no operable)$4,189
120-139$0.04521%+364%4.3%cautela (no operable)$2,588
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.8%Sobre-dispersion: 5.51x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 157.7 ± 29.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
lleva 27 · proyeccion 127.8 ± 23.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0459%+110%1.3%cautela (no operable)$269
60-79$0.0112%+74%0.2%cautela (no operable)$573
120-139$0.19533%+68%4.1%moderado$89
140-159$0.14022%+58%2.4%moderado$925
lleva 95 · proyeccion 140.6 ± 15.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.0509%+74%1.0%cautela (no operable)$827
120-139$0.24038%+59%4.7%escalable$1,826
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 116.8 ± 18.9
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.06033%+447%7.1%cautela (no operable)$0
100-119$0.11538%+227%7.4%moderado$0
140-159$0.04510%+130%1.5%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 5 · proyeccion 81.2 ± 15.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.07011%+57%1.1%cautela (no operable)$146
lleva 37 · proyeccion 72.5 ± 10.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.17025%+46%2.3%moderado$1,202
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 53.9 ± 12.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0052%+274%0.4%cautela (no operable)$686
60-79$0.12531%+145%5.2%moderado$1,526
40-59$0.48555%+13%3.0%escalable$2,032
lleva 2 · proyeccion 37.6 ± 10.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.31541%+30%3.4%escalable$5,007
lleva 21 · proyeccion 35.0 ± 6.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.70575%+6%3.7%escalable$6,926
MAE @75% del periodo: 22.1%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x19 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 32.9 ± 13.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.01629%+1703%6.9%cautela (no operable)$212
60-79$0.0052%+320%0.4%cautela (no operable)$158
20-39$0.19553%+172%10.4%moderado$704
lleva 0 · proyeccion 21.3 ± 10.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0054%+712%1.0%cautela (no operable)$609
20-39$0.08552%+513%11.9%cautela (no operable)$1,492
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.3 ± 7.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.01111%+892%2.5%cautela (no operable)$1,012
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.3%Sobre-dispersion: 12.33x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 10.4 ± 11.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.10515%+40%1.2%moderado$20
10-14$0.14017%+24%1.0%moderado$84
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.1 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-24$0.0056%+1115%1.4%cautela (no operable)$278
10-14$0.07018%+165%3.1%cautela (no operable)$316
30-34$0.0051%+31%0.0%cautela (no operable)$278
lleva 1 · proyeccion 4.2 ± 6.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.06215%+138%2.3%cautela (no operable)$575
15-19$0.0294%+48%0.4%cautela (no operable)$381
5-9$0.24028%+17%1.4%escalable$1,025