Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.170 34% +102% 5.2% moderado $1,143 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.185 37% +102% 5.8% moderado $1,149 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.265 52% +94% 8.5% escalable $2,257 Elon Musk 200-219 $0.115 20% +70% 2.3% moderado $88,180 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.360 58% +62% 8.7% escalable $2,172 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.315 46% +45% 5.2% escalable $3,734 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.380 49% +29% 4.5% escalable $4,598 The White House 160-179 $0.168 20% +20% 1.0% moderado $1,903 Donald Trump 180-199 $0.255 29% +15% 1.3% escalable $4,938 Ted Cruz 180-199 $0.255 28% +10% 0.9% escalable $1,612 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.235 26% +9% 0.7% escalable $682
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,386 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.6x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 378 · proyeccion 970.3 ± 123.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.035 41% +1060% 9.6% cautela (no operable) $7,007 960-999 $0.021 13% +528% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $10,755 920-959 $0.045 13% +175% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $5,141 880-919 $0.065 11% +68% 1.2% cautela (no operable) $4,785
lleva 41 · proyeccion 227.5 ± 69.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 280-299 $0.002 8% +5044% 1.9% cautela (no operable) $39,661 300-319 $0.002 6% +3713% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $50,474 320-339 $0.002 4% +2501% 0.9% cautela (no operable) $52,805 260-279 $0.005 10% +1642% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $19,788 240-259 $0.013 11% +775% 2.5% cautela (no operable) $15,302 220-239 $0.036 12% +220% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $12,166 80-99 $0.005 2% +218% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $80,972 200-219 $0.090 11% +24% 0.6% cautela (no operable) $14,879
lleva 140 · proyeccion 200.6 ± 39.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 240-259 $0.003 9% +3676% 2.3% cautela (no operable) $102,267 260-279 $0.002 4% +2895% 1.1% cautela (no operable) $87,764 280-299 $0.002 2% +1008% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $90,121 220-239 $0.021 15% +652% 3.4% cautela (no operable) $86,611 200-219 $0.115 20% +70% 2.3% moderado $88,180 140-159 $0.057 9% +54% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $228,349
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,545 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.37x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 45 · proyeccion 152.8 ± 35.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.002 18% +11992% 4.5% cautela (no operable) $709 100-119 $0.002 11% +7028% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $750 140-159 $0.018 22% +1180% 5.2% cautela (no operable) $1,026 160-179 $0.168 20% +20% 1.0% moderado $1,903
lleva 151 · proyeccion 182.2 ± 18.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.028 33% +1075% 7.7% cautela (no operable) $9,173
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 156.9 ± 36.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 120-139 $0.024 16% +596% 3.6% cautela (no operable) $741 100-119 $0.018 10% +444% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $882 60-79 $0.003 1% +441% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $4,191 80-99 $0.010 4% +315% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $1,553 140-159 $0.095 21% +122% 3.2% cautela (no operable) $1,742
lleva 141 · proyeccion 176.4 ± 22.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.040 33% +734% 7.5% cautela (no operable) $6,468 180-199 $0.255 29% +15% 1.3% escalable $4,938
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,662 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 53 · proyeccion 133.9 ± 22.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.051 20% +283% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $1,113 80-99 $0.021 5% +150% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $369 120-139 $0.170 34% +102% 5.2% moderado $1,143
lleva 150 · proyeccion 173.1 ± 11.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.060 12% +104% 1.7% cautela (no operable) $2,372 160-179 $0.360 58% +62% 8.7% escalable $2,172 180-199 $0.255 28% +10% 0.9% escalable $1,612
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 17 · proyeccion 76.9 ± 13.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.011 5% +377% 1.0% cautela (no operable) $569 80-99 $0.185 37% +102% 5.8% moderado $1,149
lleva 49 · proyeccion 68.7 ± 8.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.038 9% +130% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $1,951 40-59 $0.095 12% +30% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $2,033
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 842 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 39.5 ± 8.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.380 49% +29% 4.5% escalable $4,598 <20 $0.009 1% +6% 0.0% cautela (no operable) $1,560
lleva 30 · proyeccion 37.2 ± 4.5
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 462 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 4 · proyeccion 20.3 ± 9.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.265 52% +94% 8.5% escalable $2,257 40-59 $0.014 2% +41% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $471
lleva 14 · proyeccion 18.9 ± 5.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.315 46% +45% 5.2% escalable $3,734
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.6 ± 7.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 6% +981% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.050 16% +226% 3.0% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.005 2% +225% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.235 26% +9% 0.7% escalable $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.3 ± 3.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.070 26% +266% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $2,790 10-14 $0.015 3% +105% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $1,247
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).