Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)
Cuenta Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.255 51% +99% 8.4% escalable $2,354 Ted Cruz 120-139 $0.185 36% +95% 5.4% moderado $1,314 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 80-99 $0.145 26% +81% 3.4% moderado $1,202 The White House 160-179 $0.119 21% +75% 2.5% moderado $2,137 Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor) 40-59 $0.100 16% +64% 1.8% moderado $9,792 Ali Khamenei 5-9 $0.180 26% +45% 2.5% moderado $682 CZ (Binance) 20-39 $0.295 42% +42% 4.3% escalable $3,889 Donald Trump 140-159 $0.165 23% +37% 1.8% moderado $2,023 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 60-79 $0.555 74% +33% 10.3% escalable $1,959 Ted Cruz 160-179 $0.560 67% +20% 6.3% escalable $2,326 Elon Musk 140-159 $0.133 15% +10% 0.4% moderado $280,415
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11,397 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5% Sobre-dispersion: 25.61x 41 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 382 · proyeccion 951.1 ± 120.7
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 1000+ $0.035 34% +884% 8.0% cautela (no operable) $7,032 960-999 $0.021 13% +524% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $10,780 920-959 $0.051 13% +159% 2.1% cautela (no operable) $5,413 880-919 $0.090 12% +34% 0.8% cautela (no operable) $5,070
lleva 45 · proyeccion 209.5 ± 64.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 260-279 $0.002 8% +5243% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $47,840 280-299 $0.002 6% +3743% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $56,784 240-259 $0.006 10% +1460% 2.4% cautela (no operable) $21,528 220-239 $0.015 12% +679% 2.6% cautela (no operable) $15,961 80-99 $0.005 2% +308% 0.4% cautela (no operable) $89,215 200-219 $0.065 12% +88% 1.5% cautela (no operable) $18,656
lleva 144 · proyeccion 182.6 ± 31.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 220-239 $0.004 9% +1795% 2.0% cautela (no operable) $118,695 200-219 $0.026 18% +562% 3.8% cautela (no operable) $124,539 260-279 $0.002 1% +315% 0.1% cautela (no operable) $108,765 140-159 $0.133 15% +10% 0.4% moderado $280,415
The White House
@WhiteHouse · 4,557 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.1% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 25 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 52 · proyeccion 154.1 ± 34.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.017 23% +1247% 5.4% cautela (no operable) $1,222 160-179 $0.119 21% +75% 2.5% moderado $2,137
lleva 158 · proyeccion 183.5 ± 17.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.029 33% +1009% 7.7% cautela (no operable) $11,030
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump · 4,271 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.6% Sobre-dispersion: 14.21x 30 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 62 · proyeccion 147.3 ± 34.8
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.004 6% +1379% 1.4% cautela (no operable) $1,673 100-119 $0.015 13% +750% 2.9% cautela (no operable) $982 120-139 $0.046 20% +328% 4.0% cautela (no operable) $850 60-79 $0.006 2% +206% 0.3% cautela (no operable) $5,027 140-159 $0.165 23% +37% 1.8% moderado $2,023
lleva 141 · proyeccion 166.7 ± 19.1
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 160-179 $0.041 40% +864% 9.2% cautela (no operable) $7,513
Ted Cruz
@tedcruz · 2,670 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 11.0% Sobre-dispersion: 6.02x 23 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 55 · proyeccion 130.2 ± 21.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 100-119 $0.056 23% +319% 4.7% cautela (no operable) $1,161 120-139 $0.185 36% +95% 5.4% moderado $1,314 80-99 $0.059 7% +12% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $413
lleva 152 · proyeccion 169.4 ± 10.2
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 140-159 $0.065 17% +154% 2.7% cautela (no operable) $2,432 160-179 $0.560 67% +20% 6.3% escalable $2,326
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
@ZelenskyyUa · 1,713 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.4% Sobre-dispersion: 3.21x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 19 · proyeccion 71.9 ± 13.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 80-99 $0.145 26% +81% 3.4% moderado $1,202 100-119 $0.011 2% +60% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $616
lleva 51 · proyeccion 63.7 ± 6.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 60-79 $0.555 74% +33% 10.3% escalable $1,959
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
@NYCMayor · 844 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.6% Sobre-dispersion: 2.85x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 14 · proyeccion 37.9 ± 8.3
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol <20 $0.004 1% +187% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,824
lleva 30 · proyeccion 35.6 ± 4.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 40-59 $0.100 16% +64% 1.8% moderado $9,792
CZ (Binance)
@cz_binance · 463 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 20.9% Sobre-dispersion: 5.31x 21 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 5 · proyeccion 20.0 ± 8.9
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.255 51% +99% 8.4% escalable $2,354 40-59 $0.007 1% +90% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $473
lleva 15 · proyeccion 18.6 ± 4.4
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 20-39 $0.295 42% +42% 4.3% escalable $3,889
Ali Khamenei
@khamenei_ir · 151 posts registrados
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2% Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x 10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 4.3 ± 7.0
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 15-19 $0.006 6% +858% 1.3% cautela (no operable) $297 10-14 $0.050 16% +213% 2.8% cautela (no operable) $410 20-24 $0.005 1% +158% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $187 5-9 $0.180 26% +45% 2.5% moderado $682
lleva 1 · proyeccion 2.1 ± 3.5
Bucket Precio Modelo EV Kelly Confianza Vol 5-9 $0.034 23% +565% 5.0% cautela (no operable) $2,833 10-14 $0.007 2% +116% 0.2% cautela (no operable) $1,282
Fuente de conteo: xtracker.polymarket.com (la misma que usa Polymarket para resolver estos mercados).