CHATTER.
Mercados de conteo de posts en Polymarket (Elon, Trump, y otras 8 figuras publicas) — modelo de tasa de posteo calibrado contra el historial real, cruzado contra precios reales del libro de ordenes.
ultima actualizacion: 2026-08-14 02:43 UTC

Mejores picks ahora (solo escalable/moderado — cautela se excluye a proposito, EV inflado no ejecutable)

CuentaBucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
The White House180-199$0.15036%+137%6.1%moderado$13,216
Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)40-59$0.29052%+80%8.2%escalable$3,753
Ali Khamenei10-14$0.11019%+73%2.2%moderado$325
Donald Trump160-179$0.31051%+66%7.4%escalable$5,105
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.34557%+65%8.6%escalable$1,223
Ted Cruz80-99$0.10516%+49%1.4%moderado$36
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.31045%+46%5.2%escalable$579
Ted Cruz140-159$0.26538%+45%4.1%escalable$1,140
Elon Musk90-114$0.17224%+37%1.9%moderado$31,472
CZ (Binance)20-39$0.46063%+37%7.9%escalable$2,730
Ted Cruz120-139$0.26533%+25%2.2%escalable$472
Volodymyr Zelenskyy80-99$0.32539%+20%2.4%escalable$891
MAE @75% del periodo: 12.5%Sobre-dispersion: 25.71x40 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 320 · proyeccion 1028.4 ± 135.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
1000+$0.08558%+588%13.7%cautela (no operable)$6,107
960-999$0.03211%+245%2.0%cautela (no operable)$9,154
920-959$0.08010%+20%0.4%cautela (no operable)$4,303
lleva 0 · proyeccion 301.2 ± 88.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
380-399$0.0025%+3553%1.3%cautela (no operable)$2,080
400-419$0.0024%+2736%1.0%cautela (no operable)$3,009
360-379$0.0037%+2581%1.6%cautela (no operable)$3,708
320-339$0.0059%+1462%2.0%cautela (no operable)$5,118
340-359$0.0058%+1316%1.8%cautela (no operable)$1,959
300-319$0.0119%+758%2.0%cautela (no operable)$7,675
500+$0.0021%+707%0.3%cautela (no operable)$18,664
280-299$0.0219%+338%1.8%cautela (no operable)$7,448
80-99$0.0031%+103%0.1%cautela (no operable)$21,958
260-279$0.0458%+88%1.0%cautela (no operable)$1,564
lleva 82 · proyeccion 257.3 ± 67.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
320-339$0.0027%+4348%1.6%cautela (no operable)$17,999
340-359$0.0025%+2997%1.1%cautela (no operable)$22,796
300-319$0.0069%+1250%2.0%cautela (no operable)$32,896
280-299$0.01211%+780%2.4%cautela (no operable)$27,496
260-279$0.02912%+295%2.2%cautela (no operable)$25,210
120-139$0.0072%+161%0.3%cautela (no operable)$60,193
240-259$0.07612%+55%1.1%cautela (no operable)$21,653
lleva 30 · proyeccion 95.2 ± 41.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
140-164$0.0039%+3678%2.3%cautela (no operable)$13,794
165-189$0.0023%+2213%0.8%cautela (no operable)$10,270
<40$0.0048%+2102%1.9%cautela (no operable)$51,609
115-139$0.02018%+796%4.1%cautela (no operable)$23,231
90-114$0.17224%+37%1.9%moderado$31,472
lleva 168 · proyeccion 191.9 ± 24.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
220-239$0.00611%+1524%2.5%cautela (no operable)$207,011
200-219$0.03625%+586%5.5%cautela (no operable)$226,111
MAE @75% del periodo: 7.3%Sobre-dispersion: 11.38x24 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 153.1 ± 41.7
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
100-119$0.00511%+1913%2.6%cautela (no operable)$255
120-139$0.01116%+1370%3.8%cautela (no operable)$229
80-99$0.0056%+1000%1.4%cautela (no operable)$371
140-159$0.02219%+738%4.2%cautela (no operable)$263
60-79$0.0053%+380%0.5%cautela (no operable)$404
160-179$0.08518%+107%2.5%cautela (no operable)$400
lleva 98 · proyeccion 174.7 ± 29.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.00526%+4647%6.4%cautela (no operable)$2,995
140-159$0.00619%+2773%4.5%cautela (no operable)$2,654
lleva 195 · proyeccion 202.8 ± 9.4
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
180-199$0.15036%+137%6.1%moderado$13,216
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.4%Sobre-dispersion: 14.31x29 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 149.0 ± 46.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0022%+1064%0.4%cautela (no operable)$515
60-79$0.0064%+514%0.8%cautela (no operable)$106
100-119$0.08212%+47%1.0%cautela (no operable)$426
20-39$0.0041%+41%0.1%cautela (no operable)$417
80-99$0.0608%+26%0.4%cautela (no operable)$338
lleva 74 · proyeccion 163.6 ± 35.8
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.02014%+607%3.1%cautela (no operable)$1,093
80-99$0.0053%+446%0.6%cautela (no operable)$3,519
60-79$0.0031%+204%0.1%cautela (no operable)$1,907
100-119$0.0437%+70%0.8%cautela (no operable)$1,488
lleva 168 · proyeccion 177.3 ± 11.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.31051%+66%7.4%escalable$5,105
MAE @75% del periodo: 10.9%Sobre-dispersion: 5.47x22 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 119.7 ± 25.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
60-79$0.0055%+873%1.1%cautela (no operable)$18
40-59$0.0051%+69%0.1%cautela (no operable)$388
80-99$0.10516%+49%1.4%moderado$36
120-139$0.25028%+14%1.1%escalable$228
lleva 80 · proyeccion 142.3 ± 18.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.0031%+228%0.2%cautela (no operable)$646
100-119$0.06110%+61%1.0%cautela (no operable)$553
140-159$0.26538%+45%4.1%escalable$1,140
120-139$0.26533%+25%2.2%escalable$472
lleva 148 · proyeccion 155.1 ± 6.2
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
160-179$0.20524%+16%1.0%escalable$3,092
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.1%Sobre-dispersion: 3.07x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 89.7 ± 16.6
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
120-139$0.0044%+677%0.8%cautela (no operable)$271
100-119$0.04624%+419%5.1%cautela (no operable)$452
80-99$0.31045%+46%5.2%escalable$579
lleva 28 · proyeccion 77.1 ± 12.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
80-99$0.32539%+20%2.4%escalable$891
lleva 60 · proyeccion 68.4 ± 5.1
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 8.8%Sobre-dispersion: 2.93x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 41.6 ± 11.0
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.29052%+80%8.2%escalable$3,753
lleva 13 · proyeccion 36.3 ± 8.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
<20$0.0132%+62%0.2%cautela (no operable)$3,026
40-59$0.29035%+20%2.0%escalable$5,422
lleva 32 · proyeccion 33.8 ± 2.3
Sin picks con EV real ahora mismo.
MAE @75% del periodo: 21.6%Sobre-dispersion: 5.41x20 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 24.3 ± 11.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
40-59$0.0119%+775%2.1%cautela (no operable)$256
20-39$0.34557%+65%8.6%escalable$1,223
lleva 10 · proyeccion 22.8 ± 8.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.46063%+37%7.9%escalable$2,730
lleva 10 · proyeccion 12.3 ± 3.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
20-39$0.0022%+980%0.5%cautela (no operable)$1,191
MAE @75% del periodo: 15.2%Sobre-dispersion: 11.35x10 ventanas historicas analizadas
lleva 0 · proyeccion 7.6 ± 9.3
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
15-19$0.05013%+161%2.1%cautela (no operable)$40
10-14$0.11019%+73%2.2%moderado$325
20-24$0.0527%+27%0.4%cautela (no operable)$30
lleva 1 · proyeccion 5.4 ± 7.1
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
10-14$0.02718%+574%4.0%cautela (no operable)$462
15-19$0.0178%+346%1.5%cautela (no operable)$274
20-24$0.0052%+290%0.4%cautela (no operable)$283
lleva 2 · proyeccion 2.5 ± 2.5
BucketPrecioModeloEVKellyConfianzaVol
5-9$0.04821%+339%4.3%cautela (no operable)$1,440